BBC MONITOR 28

Monitor

ESSENTIAL

Drone strike: What now for al-Qaeda?

Leading Guatemalan journalist arrested

INSIGHT

Ukraine expects UK support to continue

How do Russia’s neighbours see the Ukraine war?

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At BBC Monitoring, we track, translate, summarise and analyse local media sources to make sense of what is happening on the ground around the world. Our international perspective means we keep across broadcast, press and social media sources in multiple languages, especially where reliable news and information are in short supply.

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Liz Howell Director, BBC Monitoring

Editorial

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Dear all,

Welcome to the Autumn edition of Monitor magazine, in which BBC Monitoring’s analysts provide unique perspectives on stories around the world. In recent months our journalists have spent more time than usual looking at media reaction to events in the UK, most notably the passing of Queen Elizabeth II. China’s State TV described her death as a "significant loss for a world desperately trying to cling onto the qualities she embodied – stability and continuity". We also look at how the news was covered in Russia, Iran and the Middle East.

However, our main focus remains global political and security issues. Six months after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, we take an in-depth look at the conflict through the media in neighbouring Central Asia, the South Caucasus and Moldova. The Ukraine team’s Margaryta Maliukova reports on how social media users in the country responded to the resignation of “the driver of the anti-Putin coalition” Boris Johnson and Francis Scarr from our Russian team describes his work tracking narratives on Russian TV talk shows.

Outside the Russia-Ukraine war, the reported death of Al-Qaeda leader al-Zawahiri at the end of July made it a busy time for our team that focuses on Jihadist propaganda. In her article, media specialist Mina Al-Lami explores what impact Zawahiri’s death is likely to have on the group and its operations around the world.

Finally, we are making some changes to our service to make it easier to access the distinctive insights from our experts. Our Editorial Director Judy King writes about our new Briefing product which enables readers to make sense of key developments in our areas of specialism. We would love to hear any feedback on these changes – you can contact us on monitoring@bbc.co.uk

Happy reading!

Liz Howell

Front cover: Smoke rises over Kabul after US drone strike kills Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in July

Back cover: Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy attends flag hoisting ceremony in Izium on 14 September 2022, after Ukrainian forces took control of the city from the Russian forces

BBC © 2022 All rights reserved. No publication or distribution of the whole or any part of this magazine is permitted without the written consent of BBC Monitoring.

Featured Stories

4What now for al-Qaeda?

Jihadist media specialist

Mina al-Lami looks at what the future holds for al-Qaeda after the death of its leader in a drone strike

13 INSIDE MONITORING

Judy King introduces us to BBC Monitoring’s new formats and content changes

8 Queen Elizabeth II

Our teams report on the reaction to the Queen’s death in key countries and regions

10 Guatemalan journalist arrested

Latin American specialist María Martín reports on the arrest of prominent Guatemalan journalist Jose Rubén Zamora

16 Russia’s neighbours on Ukraine

How are Russia’s neighbours viewing the war? Our regional experts write

20 Ukraine and the UK

Ukraine specialist

Margaryta Maliukova reports on praise for the UK and reaction to Boris Johnson’s resignation

24 Outside Monitoring

Kristian Porter tells us about what Public Media Alliance does and how BBC Monitoring informs their work defending independent media

26 Living the Story

Francis Scarr tells us about covering the war in Ukraine as part of our Russian team

Al-Zawahiri: what does his death mean for al-Qaeda?

Months since the death of al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in a US drone strike on 31 July in Kabul, the group is yet to appoint a new leader. Zawahiri’s death was a major symbolic and emotional blow to the group and its followers, but is unlikely to hinder its operations, jihadist media specialist Mina al-Lami writes.

AFP VIA GETTY

"the wise man of the Ummah”

Afghan protesters shout anti-US slogans in Badghis after Kabul drone strike

The death of al-Zawahiri no doubt struck a blow to the morale of al-Qaeda's regional branches and its followers worldwide.

The jihadist prose, poetry and emotional tributes lauding him since news of his death broke on 1 August are a testament to his standing and seniority within certain jihadist and Islamist circles.

This is not surprising. Al-Zawahiri was one of the last remaining iconic founders of al-Qaeda, and a close companion of its charismatic first leader, Osama Bin Laden, to whom he served as deputy before becoming leader in 2011.

His status as a jihadist veteran became increasingly important as most of the heavyweights of al-Qaeda's central command were killed off, mostly in US drone strikes in the AfghanistanPakistan region and in Syria. With regional branch leaders in Yemen and Mali also facing similar fates, al-Qaeda found itself deprived of iconic figures able to inspire and lead.

Al-Zawahiri's seniority in jihad, a journey he began as a young man in the 1980s in Egypt, earned him the honorary title "the wise man of the Ummah [Muslim nation]" among al-Qaeda members and supporters.

A trained physician and, like Bin Laden, from an educated and affluent family, al-Zawahiri was respected within jihadist circles for having sacrificed a life of success and comfort for the rocky path of jihad.

Also like Bin Laden, al-Zawahiri was known for his calm manner in delivering messages, often providing lengthy religious and academic arguments delivered with carefully considered reason in support of his assertions. His manner stood in stark contrast to the fiery speeches of rival leaders from Islamic State group (IS).

Boring and out of touch to some followers?

These same mannerisms and his lengthy theological lectures also meant that he could have seemed boring and out of touch to some jihadist followers – particularly the younger generation –and outside observers. This particular aspect was exploited by IS in attracting younger recruits and promising them instant action and results.

In 2014, IS's spokesman Abu Muhammad al-Adnani called al-Zawahiri "senile" and "a joke" –marking the first time the al-Qaeda leader had been insulted so publicly and harshly by a fellow jihadist. IS regularly calls al-Qaeda "the Jews of Jihad". IS leaders' public disrespect for al-Zawahiri encouraged their rank-andfile and online supporters to mock the man they habitually call "the fool of the Ummah" (Safeeh al-Ummah) – a play on his jihadist title "wise man of the Ummah".

IS and affiliated media outlets have disparagingly referred to al-Qaeda as 'Jews of Jihad'

one of the last remaining iconic founders of al-Qaeda

In his videos, al-Zawahiri often tries to highlight his close links to Osama Bin Laden

PRO-IS

Contrary to media reports that he has been absent in recent years, al-Zawahiri had been very visible on the jihadist media and propaganda front, albeit delivering messages that seemed outdated or less relevant to current affairs and the pressing matters of jihad.

Al-Qaeda released a flurry of video and audio messages delivered by al-Zawahiri this year, most of which offered lectures and debates on ideological matters.

His rumoured death or acute illness in late 2020 – on which al-Qaeda did not comment – was compounded by the fact that subsequent al-Zawahiri messages largely failed to cite recent or current events, prompting speculation that al-Qaeda was relying on archive footage of him to give the impression he was alive and operational.

Limited impact

While al-Zawahiri's death is a major setback for al-Qaeda symbolically, his absence is unlikely to have a major impact on the ground.

Al-Qaeda, which has branches in Yemen (AQAP), Syria (Hurras al-Din), North Africa (AQIM), Somalia (al-Shabab), Mali (JNIM) and "the Indian Subcontinent" (AQIS), seems to operate in a largely decentralised manner.

This means that the day-to-day operations and decisions of its regional branches are unlikely to be dictated by al-Zawahiri himself. Instead, they are left to regional leaders and commanders who better know the local context and their own capacity.

Meanwhile, the al-Qaeda leader, or its central command, would be responsible for formulating the overall vision of the group, dictating guidelines, giving directives on key targets and issuing orders on coordinated media and military campaigns.

This decentralised structure is partly dictated by the global character of the group, with component parts dispersed worldwide; and partly the result of al-Qaeda's leadership operating under stringent self-imposed communication restrictions to avoid detection.

Unreachable

In fact, jihadists have for years complained that al-Zawahiri was absent from the scene and unreachable.

In November 2017, the leaders of the jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Syria, previously known as Nusra Front, justified their decision to sever ties with al-Qaeda in 2016 – to which al-Zawahiri later objected – by saying they had tried and failed to reach the al-Qaeda leader for nearly three years, after which they made the decision themselves, in consultation with al-Zawahiri's then deputies.

Foregoing al-Zawahiri's input on such a major decision was a glaring testament to how difficult it was for regional al-Qaeda branches to contact their global emir.

In the past year, al-Qaeda's "General Command", which is responsible for issuing statements representing al-Qaeda central on key matters and directives, has been silent, another example of how the absence of al-Qaeda's central command on key developments does not seem to impact the day-to-day activities of its regional affiliates.

Nevertheless, any al-Qaeda leader, depending on how much sway he holds, can still impact operations by dictating the overall goals, attack methods and targets.

Al-Qaeda released multiple videos this year featuring lectures and messages from Zawahiri

JIM WATSON-POOL/GETTY IMAGES

Possible impact

Al-Zawahiri's death will have an impact if it causes internal divisions, which is one of the reasons jihadist groups sometimes delay the announcement of leadership deaths, or if his successor makes key changes to al-Qaeda's goals and strategy. Judging from our observation of al-Qaeda in recent years, neither seems to be likely, and al-Qaeda will most probably press on with its strategy, which considers the US its key enemy.

Al-Zawahiri's leadership of al-Qaeda was always going to be overshadowed by that of his iconic predecessor, and his time in charge saw the depletion of multiple al-Qaeda branches in the Middle East and a clear drop in significant al-Qaeda orchestrated attacks in the West. But, aside from the loss of the important Syrian project, and its Iraq partners taking a different path, he did manage to keep al-Qaeda largely intact, and keep it on the map as an ongoing global jihadist threat.

Today, the group's Africa branches in Somalia and Mali are al-Qaeda's hope and the foundation of its claim to remaining a global force. The new leader is unlikely to alter that course.

Mina al-Lami leads our Jihadist Media team. For a more detailed version of this story see our website at monitoring.bbc.co.uk

President Joe Biden announces death of Al-Qaeda Leader Ayman Al-Zawahiri

Death of Queen Elizabeth II: overseas reaction

The death of Queen Elizabeth II was a huge event in the UK, but how was the news received elsewhere? Our editorial teams report on the reaction in Russia, Iran, China and the Arabic world…

Russia: “Britain prays for the Queen”

The death of Elizabeth II was reported prominently on Russian TV. Her frailty was the lead story for GazpromMedia's NTV, which went to air before the announcement of her passing. "Britain prays for the Queen," it said: "Buckingham Palace reports a deterioration in the health of Elizabeth II."

Outside the Palace in a downpour was its London correspondent, Liza Gerson. "As you can see, the weather right now is not whispering but crying," she commented. That all the Queen's children and grandchildren were at or heading to Balmoral ("which one could call the royal dacha") was in her view "extremely worrying".

The other bulletins were respectful in their accounts of Elizabeth's life and reign, noting the subtleties of her position and her longevity.

"Although officially she did not engage in politics, it was the Queen who would receive in London the most important guests from other states," stateowned Rossiya 1 said. "She met the first cosmonaut, Yuri Gagarin ... and President of Russia Vladimir Putin at Buckingham Palace in 2003."

"The Queen not only witnessed great events of history, she took part in them," state-controlled Channel One agreed. It remembered her visit to Moscow in 1994, hosted by Boris Yeltsin.

Despite their respectful tone for the Queen herself, both Rossiya 1 and Channel One reminded their viewers of controversies involving other royals.

Channel One ended its report with a barb at the 15th inhabitant of No 10 during her reign. "The first prime minister whom Elizabeth II confirmed in office was Winston Churchill and the last was Liz Truss, who has cast aspersions on her name," it said. "The new resident of Downing Street will probably yet be reminded of what she said about it being time to do away with the monarchy. But she will certainly not be the one who remains in Britons' memory."

TIM GRAHAM

PHOTO LIBRARY VIA GETTY IMAGES

“the ‘legendary life’ of the Queen”

President Putin rides in open carriage with Queen Elizabeth Il during state visit

Iran: muted reaction

Perhaps the least surprising aspect of Iran’s reaction to the Queen’s death was the official refusal to offer condolences or to issue a message.

The first official reaction came 11 days after the Queen's death, when the foreign ministry said it had acted based on "relevant protocols" and "diplomatic norms".

The ministry explained that relations between countries "do not exist in a vacuum" but were based on reciprocity.

Iranian media speculated that Tehran had not sent condolences because the UK had not sent similar messages over the deaths of former Iranian presidents or the senior commander Qasem Soleimani, killed in a US drone strike in 2020.

State media were not kind to the Queen. Iranian state television and radio used Persian words for "died" and "death" (mord and marg) that convey a sense of disrespect, the former particularly contemptuous.

They also alleged the Queen “played a role" in Iran's 1953 coup – a sore moment in modern Iranian history when British and US intelligence agencies helped oust Iran's democratically elected prime minister, Mohammad Mossadeq.

Tasnim News Agency, linked to the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC), called Queen Elizabeth "the last survivor of the coup".

Arab countries: periods of mourning

While offering condolences on the death of Queen Elizabeth II, several Arab countries, mostly Gulf monarchies, but also Lebanon, declared periods of official mourning.

The Royal Hashemite Court of Jordan declared a seven-day mourning period starting on 8 September, the state-run Al-Mamlaka TV’s website reported.

Al-Mamlaka added that flags had been flown at half-mast on 8 September at ministry buildings and public institutions.

The United Arab Emirates announced a three-day period of national mourning in the country, with flags flying “at halfmast for three days”, the official news agency WAM reported.

In Qatar, Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad also decreed that flags be flown at halfmast in the country for a period of three days, according to the state-run news agency QNA.

The Bahraini king, Sheikh Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ordered that flags be lowered for the same period, the state-run news agency BNA reported.

The Sultan of Oman, Haitham bin Tariq Al Said, ordered that flags be flown at half-mast over public and private sector buildings and at the embassies of the Sultanate on 9 September, the state-run news agency ONA reported.

China state media: an “enormous loss”

China’s state-run international broadcaster China Global Television Network (CGTN) described the death of Queen Elizabeth II as a "significant loss for a world desperately trying to cling onto the qualities she embodied – stability and continuity". It also highlighted the Queen's support for improving UK-China ties.

State broadcaster China Central Television (CCTV) posted a video lasting over four minutes on its web page on the "legendary life" of the Queen.

Niu Tanqin (Bull Piano), a prominent state-affiliated current affairs blog, saw a "political crisis" and "spiritual crisis" following the Queen's passing, saying that more Commonwealth nations and Scotland and Wales may choose to leave the UK and become republics.

On China's Twitter-like social media platform Sina Weibo, state media created several hashtags on the news of the Queen's demise, with the top trending hashtag "UK Queen has passed away" on 9 September.

Chinese search engine Baidu also set up a special page as a tribute.

In his condolence message, President Xi Jinping noted that the Queen was the first British monarch to visit China and described her passing as an "enormous loss" to the British people.

In Taiwan, President Tsai Ing-wen said in her condolence message that Taiwan "remembers and celebrates her life of leadership and service".

Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Morocco did not announce a period of mourning, although King Salman, Emir Sheikh Nawaf al-Ahmad al-Sabah and King Mohammed VI all offered their condolences to the new king, Charles III.

Lebanon, a republic, declared three days of national mourning as well as an additional day for the Queen's funeral.

Flags were flown at half-mast in all Lebanese municipalities and public administration offices and broadcast schedules were changed “due to this sad event", a cabinet statement said.

Thanks to our Russia, Iran, China and Middle East teams for these insights

President Xi Jinping and Queen Elizabeth II attend state banquet at Buckingham Palace in 2015

Media condemn arrest of prominent Guatemalan journalist

In late July the Guatemalan authorities arrested one of the country’s most respected journalists, José Rubén Zamora, five days after strong accusations of corruption against several officials and former officials were published in the newspaper. Latin American specialist María Martín writes.

“one of the main critics of the government”

JOHAN

Jose Ruben Zamora arrives at hearing in Guatemala City on 8 August 8 2022

The arrest on 29 July of José Rubén Zamora, publisher of Guatemala's opposition daily El Periódico, quickly became the focus of intense reporting and media commentary in the Central American nation.

Guatemalan media reported that he was being charged with money laundering, influence trafficking and blackmailing, according to local sources.

But others suggested the Guatemalan authorities were acting against him in retaliation for his newspaper publishing of stories highlighting official corruption.

Zamora "is one of the main critics of the government of [Guatemalan President] Alejandro Giammattei, and his arrest took place five days after strong complaints against several officials and former officials for corruption in a Sunday section of the morning paper," a tweet published in El Periódico's official account argued.

Another tweet by El Periódico warned: "We will not be silenced".

Zamora, who has won several international journalism awards including Columbia University's prestigious Maria Moors Cabot award, told local media after his arrest that he was the victim of "a conspiracy".

Quick condemnation

Soon after police and judiciary officials raided the offices of El Periódico and the home of its publisher in the capital, Guatemala City, several local television channels including Guatevisión and Canal Antigua live-streamed the scene outside the Zamora residence.

There was quick condemnation of the arrest, with civil society groups calling –often through statements published by El Periódico itself – for Zamora's release.

An editorial in El Periódico quoted a statement by the Guatemalan Conference of Catholic Bishops calling Zamora's detention "a de facto attack against press freedom in the country".

Other media outlets, such as radio network Emisoras Unidas reported calls led by El Periódico for a street demonstration outside a Guatemala City courthouse to demand the journalist's release.

Guatemala's Prensa Libre, another major national news outlet, echoed the "strong condemnation" voiced by the Interamerican Press Association against what it described as "intimidation of the press".

Ironically, some analysts said, Zamora’s arrest took place the same day the Guatemalan Press Association (APG) released a report highlighting attacks on press freedoms. According to digital newspaper La Hora, the APG reported that some 350 attacks on journalists had taken place since President Alejandro Giammattei took office in 2020.

"We will not be silenced"

President Alejandro Giammattei speaks in interview

JOHAN ORDONEZ/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES

JOHAN ORDONEZ/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES

Journalist protests against the arrest of Zamora

Authorities insist arrest ‘does not target journalism’

Rafael Curruchiche, the head of Guatemala's Public Ministry’s AntiCorruption unit, known as the FECI (The Special Prosecutor Against Impunity), told the press Zamora was being charged, “as an individual businessman, not as a journalist, and this action is not against his paper”.

An analytical piece on the digital website Plaza Pública questioned that the paper itself was not a target when it noted its offices had been raided: A subtitle in that article read: “MP (Public Ministry) hindered the work of the media" and noted: “The prosecutors removed more than 30 people in charge of printing and distributing the morning paper from the administrative offices …The outlet was forced to find an alternative location to print the 30 July hard copy edition.”

From detention, José Rubén Zamora was quoted in numerous press accounts saying he was worried about the future of El Periódico, as he was its principal source of funds. But he insisted that his paper would not be silenced.

Meanwhile, Prensa Libre reported he had gone on a hunger strike, to protest what he called the political conspiracy against him and the paper he founded in 1996.

"a de facto attack against press freedom in the country"

Zamora attends hearing in Guatemala City

María Martín is a journalist in our Miami-based Latin America team

Zamora speaks with a journalist after hearing in the Palace of Justice, Guatemala City, on 30 July 2022

JOHAN ORDONEZ/AFP

VIA GETTY IMAGES

JOHAN ORDONEZ/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES

Inside Monitoring

ESSENTIAL MEDIA INSIGHT

You’ve seen the What, this is the How. Inside Monitoring is a blog written by our staff journalists, linguists and analysts from around the world. With access to local sources and a nuanced understanding of language and context, they truly live the stories and are able to identify what other news organisations may miss. In this edition, we talk about our new, improved formats for our content.

For a view from the other side, turn to Outside Monitoring on page 24.

Inside Monitoring: Improvements to our content set

BBC Monitoring (BBCM) has a reputation for providing distinctive insight and analysis, with deep regional and thematic expertise. Editorial Director Judy King writes about improvements to our coverage.

As media environments around the world grow ever more complex and the real-life impact of the spread of disinformation is plain for all to see, the need for the service that BBCM provides could not be clearer.

In recent user surveys, we learned that what customers value most is our knowledge of international media sources and the ability of our multi-lingual journalists to provide context and insight.

With this in mind we have reviewed our content set and taken steps to simplify it in order to make it easier for our readers to benefit from our expertise.

Briefings

We have introduced this new product to make sense of key developments in our areas of specialism. Briefings are concise, granular and link to the media sources contained within them. Each one covers a distinctive angle, along with relevant insight and background. They start with an ‘at-aglance’ section to enable readers to quickly decide if the content is relevant for them.

Here are the main changes we have made:

Deep regional and thematic expertise

News Alerts

News Alerts are not new and have been a popular product with BBCM customers for many years, providing timely updates from our key coverage areas. Given their popularity, we now want to do more of them and have advised our journalists to see them as tip-offs to our users, rather than viewing them as simple breaking news reports. In the past, News Alerts made up 3% of our output but now they make up 24%. Our readers will now have access to a steady flow of News Alerts on key themes and countries.

Reports

The Report category of content has also undergone a revamp and now focuses on the key narratives and messaging contained in the most influential sources. Reports summarise an article, opinion piece or TV item and explain its significance. Where possible, reports contain a link to the original source of the information.

Judy King is BBC Monitoring’s Editorial Director

Key narratives and messaging

How do Russia’s neighbours see the war in Ukraine?

Six months after the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, we looked at how Russia’s neighbouring countries were viewing the conflict. Here are reports on eight key countries from our regional experts.

Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan is one of Russia's key allies, but since the invasion of Ukraine the government has maintained that while it remains a friend of Russia, it respects Ukraine's territorial integrity and does not support the war. The Kremlin has used economic levers against its southern neighbour, restricting or threatening Kazakh oil exports to Europe through the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk three times since March.

Russia has used its extensive media presence in the country to counter opposition to the invasion of Ukraine. Some surveys have shown strong Kazakh support for the war.

President Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev, who had Russian military assistance to deal with anti-government protests in January this year, now seeks a balance in ties with Moscow and the rest of the world in order to mitigate the fallout from the war and to avoid confrontation with Russia.

Kazakhstan is under pressure to reduce its dependence on Russian pipelines and ports and to seek new economic partners, given Russia’s expected economic decline due to sanctions.

The Kremlin has used economic levers against its southern neighbour

Leaders of Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) member states meet in the Kremlin in May 2022

ALEXANDER NEMENOV/POOL/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES

Georgia

Georgia was invaded by Russia in 2008 and as a result two of its regions host Moscow-backed separatist administrations and massive Russian military bases.

The public overwhelmingly supports Ukraine and feels a common desire to shake off the Russian imperial yoke and integrate with Europe.

The Georgian authorities must therefore strike a balance between reflecting popular sentiment and preventing Russian military aggression, which it is illprepared to fend off.

While condemning the invasion and supporting Ukraine's territorial integrity, they have tried to avoid antagonising Russia and argued with their Ukrainian counterparts, who they see as in cahoots with Georgia's largest opposition party.

The government and its allies have accused Ukraine of pressing Georgia to open a "second front" against Russia and have amplified the narrative put forward by local far-right pro-Russian groups that the US ambassador is involved in efforts to "drag Georgia into war".

The ruling party claims to seek EU and Nato membership, so many find these attacks on Ukraine, and on Western institutions, baffling and outrageous.

Further complicating matters are the tens of thousands of Russians who have flooded into Georgia since the start of the war. Some are fleeing the increasingly repressive political atmosphere or sanctions, and some –many Georgians fear – could be spies or agents of influence.

Moldova

When Russia invaded Ukraine, Moldova's pro-Russian political parties sprang into action. The largest, the Party of Socialists, condemned Western sanctions and called for expanded economic ties with Moscow to help the Moldovan economy, which had been badly affected by Covid.

The government, which is proEuropean, said while it would not impose sanctions, it would not help Russia get around them.

Moldova turned to its Western partners for help in the face of a possible attack by two Russian military contingents deployed in the rebel Dniester region.

Russia and the pro-Russian forces in Moldova accused the West of attempts to "militarise" the country despite its neutral status. The pro-Russia media said the government was spending on weapons instead of tackling poverty.

Some clergy of the Moldovan Orthodox Church, an arm of the Russian Orthodox Church and Moldova's largest denomination, repeated Kremlin narratives in sermons.

In May and July, with energy prices rising, the pro-Russian parties staged protests, blaming the government for the deteriorating economy.

The Socialists and their supporters were particularly active in autonomous region Gagauzia, which they said was "Russian land", with rallies every weekend since May. Meanwhile, the Gagauzia parliament called for "direct ties with Russia".

The Dniester region’s leadership, with business interests in Ukraine, has not condemned the Russian war, but said preserving peace was its goal.

Georgia was invaded by Russia in 2008

A man attends a rally in Tbilisi in support of Georgian EU membership in June 2022

ALEXANDER NEMENOV/POOL/AFP

VIA GETTY IMAGES

Armenia

Armenia's view on the Ukraine war is coloured by its own highly dependent, yet complicated, relationship with Russia.

Armenia is flanked by two hostile, more powerful states: Turkey and Azerbaijan.

Russia has been its one vital strategic ally – its main trading partner and provider of energy resources.

Russia has a massive military base in Armenia and is building another. It also controls strategic infrastructure such as the gas distribution system. Armenia is a member of Russian-dominated economic and military blocs.

There are 2,000 Russian peacekeepers in the part of the disputed NagornoKarabakh region that has remained under Armenian control since Armenia’s defeat in its 2020 war against Azerbaijan.

There is substantial sympathy for Ukraine in Armenia and few people support Russia's invasion.

However, Armenia’s room for manoeuvre is limited by its dependency on Russia, its own problems in Karabakh and its wish to normalise relations with historical rival Turkey.

As in Georgia, tens of thousands of Russians moved to Armenia after the invasion. They have largely been welcomed and many in Armenia see opportunity in Russian capital, particularly IT businesses.

Uzbekistan

Since the war in Ukraine began, Uzbekistan has been under great pressure both politically and economically due to its close ties with Moscow.

In April President Mirziyoyev dismissed his long-serving foreign minister, Abdulaziz Kamilov, after he said in parliament that Tashkent did not recognise the independence of the self-proclaimed Luhansk and Donetsk people's republics – the boldest statement yet from the Uzbek authorities about the conflict.

Local observers say Uzbek elites’ interests are "closely intertwined" with those of Putin's Russia and pose a threat to Uzbek independence. Other analysts, however, say antiRussian sanctions give Uzbekistan and its neighbours "unprecedented opportunities" to achieve geopolitical self-rule.

Economist Otabek Bakirov said regional countries might become "vassal nations of Russia such as Chechnya and Belarus" if they failed to resist Russia's "Force and Subordination" model of statehood – a model that remains attractive to most of the region's population who were raised in the Soviet era.

There are large audiences for Russian media in Uzbekistan. Russia-based TV channels are increasingly popular and many Uzbeks get their news from Channel One and NTV, two of Russia's main channels, although there have been calls among local experts and bloggers to halt the rebroadcast of Russian TV, especially after Rossiya 24 TV's criticism of independent Uzbek journalists and media outlets after they condemned the Kremlin's "special operation" in Ukraine.

Russia has a massive military base in Armenia and is building another

Regional leaders prior to a meeting of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) member states in the Kremlin in May 2022

ALEXANDER NEMENOV/POOL/AFP

VIA GETTY IMAGES

Tajikistan

Tajikistan is yet to take an official position on the Russia-Ukraine conflict although it has led to price rises and currency fluctuations in the country, as in all Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries.

The Tajik government is now paying for imports of staple goods and some raw materials increasingly in the Russian rouble and China’s yuan rather than the US dollar, and the value of the rouble is rising in the country. While Tajikistan imports most of its goods from Russia, China is also a major trading partner.

There are many Tajik economic migrants in Russia and Tajikistan depends on remittances from migrants. According to the Russian Interior Ministry, there were around 2 million Tajik migrants in Russia in the first six months of 2022. Their remittances make up around half of Tajikistan’s GDP. A decade ago they made up around a third of the country’s GDP.

Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan views the Ukraine war through the lens of its efforts to regain control over the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh.

A wealthy petrostate, Azerbaijan is governed by the strongman Ilham Aliyev.

Aliyev and his fellow authoritarian, Vladimir Putin, understand each other and often exchange words of praise. They signed a "declaration of allied cooperation" in February as the invasion of Ukraine began.

But Azerbaijan is much more closely allied with another regional power, Turkey, and its interests do not often coincide with Russia's.

The public, as well as the media, overwhelmingly support Ukraine.

Access to several Azerbaijani progovernment Russian-language websites was blocked in Russia due to their coverage of the Ukraine war; in response Azerbaijan blocked access to the Russian state-run RIA news agency.

Pro-government media in Azerbaijan frequently criticise the Russian peacekeepers whose mandate in Karabakh ends in 2025. They stress the temporary nature of the deployment and the state's aim of retaking full control over its territory.

Kyrgyzstan

Kyrgyzstan, one of the poorest countries in Central Asia, is trying to maintain a balance in relations with Russia and Ukraine, its economic partners. In April, President Sadyr Japarov said the country was taking a neutral position on the war.

The state-owned media toe the government's line and avoid the topic of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, although they report the war’s impact on the economy and the measures taken by the authorities.

Many Kyrgyz citizens living in large cities receive their news on the war from the large number of Russian media outlets available in Kyrgyzstan.

Privately-owned media, including the leading independent online news agencies AKIpress and 24.kg, also carry news on the latest developments in Ukraine from Russian and Ukrainian sources and carry statements by leaders and senior officials of both countries. The independent investigative website Kloop calls the Russian invasion of Ukraine a "war".

There are a few independent news outlets in Kyrgyzstan which are critical of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. They include the YouTube-based channels Media Hub, Shaman TV and Archa Media channel.

With Russia distracted in Ukraine, Baku has pressed its advantage in Karabakh, seizing several villages and strategic heights. The Russian peacekeepers took little action against this, ahead of a ceasefire agreed in September.

Dilmurad Avalbaev (Kazakhstan), Akbarjon Musaev (Uzbekistan), Mutalib Khalikov (Kyrgyzstan) and Marufjon Ismatov (Tajikistan) are based in our Tashkent office; Natasha Matyukhina (Moldova) is based in our Kyiv office; and John Horan (Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan) is head of our Tbilisi office

Russian President Vladimir Putin shakes hands with Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev at a meeting in Ashgabat in June 2022

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Ukraine expects UK support to continue after Johnson

While the UK now has a new prime minister, Rishi Sunak, Boris Johnson continues to be a popular figure In Ukraine. His resignation prompted many Ukrainian commentators and politicians to express gratitude for his support following the Russian invasion, Margaryta Maliukova reports.

“Britain's role in protecting freedom is truly global.”

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A man takes a picture of a portrait of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson displayed at a gallery in Kyiv

When Boris Johnson resigned as leader of the UK’s Conservative Party, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukrainians felt personal gratitude towards the UK’s prime minister and expressed hope for continued British support no matter who his successor was.

"Britain's role in protecting freedom is truly global. And although this is a reflection of the position of British society, the leadership and charisma of the prime minister are always of special importance. Especially at such a time – the time of Russia's full-scale anti-European war, which started its attack on Europe precisely from our state. So it is not surprising that Ukrainians feel personal gratitude to Boris," Zelensky said in an evening address to the nation.

"But let's not forget that we are building relations between states. Great Britain's support for Ukraine should not change, no matter what happens in London's power circles, both Boris and all our friends in the United Kingdom assured me of this," he added.

Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba also expressed confidence that Britain's policy towards Ukraine would not change.

"Undoubtedly, during this war, Boris Johnson has shown himself to be a courageous person who is unafraid of taking risks. Just remember his visit to Kyiv in April. He is a person who will be very difficult to change, there will never be anyone like him. But I am sure that, whoever the prime minister of Great Britain is, the UK's policy and support for Ukraine will remain unchanged," Kuleba told Ukraine's TV marathon.

No change of policy expected

Ukrainian analysts also downplayed the consequences of Johnson's resignation and the possibility that it would lead to a change of policy with regard to Ukraine.

Journalist Oleksandr Krayev said on a YouTube video that Johnson's resignation changed almost nothing for Ukraine. He predicted that it might mean fewer visits to Kyiv and fewer statements of support, but the UK's strategy towards Ukraine would be the same as it was supported by the majority of British voters.

In an article for the Glavred website, pundit Illya Kusa argued that support for Ukraine was not Johnson's "unique idea", but rather "an intra-elite consensus". "Nearly all parties in the UK are critical of Russia, and they will not significantly change their attitudes," he said, adding that what might change is rhetoric, not substance.

Also on Glavred, financial expert Serhiy Fursa argued that the interests of Ukraine and the UK coincided, so British support for Ukraine would not disappear with Johnson's resignation. He rejected the popular supposition that the Kremlin was behind the resignation.

“The UK's policy and support for Ukraine will remain unchanged”

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Ukrainian TV recalled Johnson's visits to Kyiv and spoke of public admiration for him

Praise and gratitude

On YouTube, journalist Taras Berezovets said: "Boris Johnson's actions deserve all manner of praise." "He was basically the driver of the anti-Putin coalition, in many ways pushing others – including the Joe Biden administration – towards more active, decisive actions. And we must undoubtedly be grateful to Boris for being the first leader of the free world to visit wartime Kyiv at a time when Ukraine was already being attacked by Russian missiles," he said. He noted, however, that if Johnson was succeeded by Ben Wallace, this might turn out "even worse" for the Kremlin.

Pundit Vitaliy Portnykov echoed this idea in his video blog: "Ukrainians will remember Johnson with gratitude as a person who spoke out loudly and seriously in support of Ukraine when other European politicians were still debating how tough their reaction should be to the Russian aggression."

New Ukrainian PM?

On social media, there was an outpouring of support for Johnson among Ukrainian commentators who lamented his resignation.

One blogger, Andriy Hanusych, suggested praying for Johnson to retain his position as prime minister.

"Whatever his domestic faults&failures may be, Ukrainians are very grateful to him for his support and will surely remember it," journalist Danylo Mokryk tweeted.

There was also a social meme showing Ukrainian showman Serhiy Prytula "announcing" a fundraiser for Johnson's salary as the new prime minister of Ukraine.

Meanwhile, film director Nariman Aliyev joked that Johnson had resigned in order to take a job as head of the Ukrainian president's office.

"Thank you, Boris Johnson, for understanding the threat of the Russian monster and always being on the frontlines of support for Ukraine," presidential office adviser Mykhaylo Podolyak tweeted.

"Ukrainians will remember Johnson with gratitude"

Margaryta Maliukova is a journalist in our Ukraine team

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A Ukrainian flag next to Britain's flag on the roof of 10 Downing Street in March 2022

A painting of Boris Johnson dressed as a Ukrainian cossack in Chernihiv Historical Museum in July 2022

OUTSIDE MONITORING

Public Media Alliance

BBCM user Public Media Alliance (PMA) was known as the Commonwealth Broadcasting Association (CBA) until 2014. CEO Kristian Porter tells us how BBC Monitoring helps with the organisation’s work.

The challenges facing public service media are growing: media capture, funding crises, attacks on journalists, mis- and disinformation – these issues are more widely shared and more prevalent than ever before, and have been exacerbated by the Covid pandemic.

Running the Public Media Alliance, a global association of public media organisations, it is my role to be acutely aware of the development of these issues and how they manifest. Our role is to support our members and advocate for their core values, such as independence, accountability and quality journalism, all of which are fundamental to the role of public media in underpinning democracy.

This is where BBC Monitoring helps to inform the work that we do. Our small but knowledgeable and passionate team reports globally on public media, provides training to our members, and coordinates international research and response projects.

BBC Monitoring is enormously useful

Kristian Porter speaking at a journalist safety event at Canada House in London co-organised between PMA, Canada House, and CBC/Radio-Canada

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Surveillance and analysis

Understanding global contexts, connecting the dots worldwide, and analysing the trends is critical. Every week, our editorial team compiles a newsletter featuring global headlines which encapsulate stories about media freedom, public interest media, and public service media worldwide. BBC Monitoring is enormously useful here – providing in-depth surveillance and analysis reporting and helping us to verify what is being said on the ground. In turn, this benefits our work, and subsequently, our members.

For example, we were alerted to an alarming situation in Pakistan thanks to BBC Monitoring’s work, which then helped to inform our analysis of the Pakistan Electronic Media Regulatory Authority’s decision to revoke the licence of the private news broadcaster, ARY News. This story matters because it sets a precedent for Pakistani media as to how their sector might be treated under a relatively new government. But it also matters in a wider sense, as we witness a rise in government-controlled or government-aligned regulatory authorities using their powers to silence and censor independent media.

Countering disinformation

Connecting the dots. Recognising the trends. This is just a first step. Countering is the next.

PMA is involved in multiple projects which, driven by this knowledge, seek to establish solutions. We’re currently running a UNESCO-funded project in the Caribbean exploring how media organisations can better thwart disinformation and share trusted, verified reporting. These lessons can be taken and applied elsewhere. In the same way threats to media are shared across the world, so too are solutions. Collaborative, international, and multistakeholder efforts must be employed to address and repel these attacks.

Understand the global situation

There’s a huge diversity in our members: in their geography, their role in society, their levels of independence, the size of their organisation, and their funding resources and mechanisms. But regardless of this difference, it is critical our members understand the global situation – that what happens on one side of the planet can very easily happen on the other.

None of us can afford to be passive against the threats facing public media. Their core values mean they have an invaluable role informing democracy. It is therefore up to us to recognise the challenges, understand them, and effectively push back.

Kristian Porter is the CEO of Public Media Alliance

It is critical our members understand the global situation

BBC Monitoring helps to inform the work that we do

PMA

Attendees developing social media guidelines at a UNESCO-supported PMA workshop in the Caribbean

A PMA project on hate speech in Jamaica in 2018, with a seminar on first aid in case of attack

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MYERS

Living the story: Francis Scarr

What brought you to BBC Monitoring?

I graduated from university in 2017 with a single immediate career aim: to find a position where I could use my Russian, a language in which I had grown to love learning over the previous four years.

After an internship at a foreign policy think tank in Prague where I assisted Russia experts and a subsequent stint back home in West Sussex stacking shelves in a supermarket, I successfully applied for the BBC’s work experience programme. I found myself in the Russia team at Monitoring’s old home at Caversham Park just days after the poisoning of Sergei Skripal and knew instantly that this was an opportunity I had to pursue. Initially I joined Monitoring as a freelancer but by the end of 2018, I had joined the Moscowbased half of our Russia team, where I stayed until the invasion of Ukraine forced me and my colleagues to leave.

What's on your screen now?

Since Russia began launching missiles at Ukraine on 24 February, I have been writing daily reports on the political talk shows that occupy the lion’s share of Russian TV schedules. I’ve just finished watching the morning edition of 60 Minutes, which is aired on Rossiya 1 TV, the country’s number one channel. It’s hosted by Olga Skabeyeva, who has been sanctioned by the EU, alongside her husband Yevgeny Popov, who since 2021 has also represented the Kremlin-backed United Russia party in the State Duma.

On another tab is Time Will Tell, the equivalent of 60 Minutes on Channel One, the country’s second-most popular TV station.

When the conversation on the shows strays away from Ukraine (which is my particular focus), I take the opportunity to scroll through the feeds of some Telegram channels. With the restrictions placed by the Russian authorities on most Western social media, Telegram has gained in popularity, meaning we now keep an even closer eye on it than we did previously.

BBC MONITORING

With the war in Ukraine, it has been an extremely busy summer for our Russian team. Journalist Francis Scarr tells us what it has been like to work on our coverage both in Moscow and in London.

If I’d been asked this question six months ago, I could have given a whole range of answers ranging from the rise of boutique investigative outlets who have punched above their weight to the poisoning of Alexei Navalny and his subsequent return to immediate arrest in Moscow.

But everything else now pales in comparison to this year’s invasion of Ukraine.

While it is ultimately painful to watch Russian TV cheerleading mass death and destruction, I have also found it fascinating to follow the twisting and turning of narratives churned out by Russian state media since President Vladimir Putin announced the launch of his “special military operation”.

What was initially covered with triumphalist rhetoric and pitched as a limited set of objectives meant merely to clip Ukraine’s wings was later described as an existential struggle against the West. Six months on, there are signs that Russian TV is becoming aware of the risk of war fatigue setting in and has begun to return to the more general criticism of the West characteristic of recent years.

To start with, I would never by choice watch four hours of news and current affairs programming in a single day. I have built up a resilience to the vitriol and outright hatred voiced daily on Russian state TV talk shows, but I nonetheless encounter difficult moments when I hear familiar talking points repeated by Russian friends with whom I enjoyed close relationships while living in Moscow. Since returning to the UK, I’ve also interpreted several interviews with Ukrainians for Radio 4 and the World Service. The stark clash between what I hear on Russian TV and the harrowing accounts given by those suffering the consequences of Russia’s actions often leaves me feeling very uncomfortable.

Especially since 24 February, I have learnt that words have the power to kill.

The widespread support among Russians for the war (or at least their acquiescence to it) did not arise overnight. It is the logical outcome of large parts of Russian society consuming profoundly hostile rhetoric over a period of several years. Some may argue that the anti-Western and anti-Ukrainian messaging fell on fertile ground in the form of existing prejudices, but without the Kremlin’s control of the media, and especially TV, I am convinced that this year’s invasion could not have happened.

What have you learnt while working at BBCM?

What are the biggest challenges in your role?

What is the most interesting story you have covered?

Francis Scarr is a journalist in our Russian team

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A woman walks past a poster depicting a Russian soldier and Russia’s Z symbol in Sevastopol, Crimea

T-shirts bearing the letter Z, the insignia of Russian troops in Ukraine, at a gift shop in Moscow

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BBC Monitoring observes, understands and explains media throughout the world, providing deep insight and enabling organisations to make better, more informed decisions. Our teams monitor and analyse developments in areas including geopolitics, terrorism and other security-related issues for BBC News as well as our clients, who include governments, NGOs and major corporations worldwide.

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