QI-2018 QUARTERLY REPORT GERMANY
Economic momentum continues Rosy prospects for 2018
The German economy continued its upward trend through late 2017. In the fourth quarter, impetus for growth came almost exclusively from foreign trading. Rising investment in plants and equipment was cancelled out by the drop in construction investment. State consumption expenditure increased strongly, while private consumption barely moved.
Economic output increased in 2017 overall by a total of 2.2 percent. This was the highest growth seen in six years.
Domestic factors are set to dominate economic development in Germany in 2018. The continuing increase in employment and wages above the inflation rate should help boost private purchasing power and consumption. The high utilisation rate and global economic upturn should increasingly trigger not just replacement but also expansion investment.
For 2018, we expect a year-on-year real increase in overall economic output of 2 ¼ percent. Calendar adjustments will not be necessary this year.
Economic momentum continues | Rosy prospects for 2018 08/03/2018
Content The German economy......................................................................................................................... 3 German economy continues to grow .................................................................................................... 3 Exports strong in fourth quarter ............................................................................................................. 4 Labour market: employment growth continues unabated ..................................................................... 5 Industry ................................................................................................................................................ 6 Incoming orders for industry: large orders cause year-end spike ......................................................... 6 Dynamic growth in industrial production ebbs slightly towards year end .............................................. 8 Industrial production 2017: strongest increase in six years .................................................................. 9 High capacity utilisation at start of 2018 .............................................................................................. 10 Prospects for 2018 remain good ......................................................................................................... 10 Outlook ............................................................................................................................................... 12 Sources .............................................................................................................................................. 15 Imprint ................................................................................................................................................ 15 Basic data for national accounts ..................................................................................................... 16
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Economic momentum continues | Rosy prospects for 2018 08/03/2018
The German economy German economy continues to grow The German economy continued on its stable upward trend in late 2017. Gross domestic product in the fourth quarter increased by 0.6 percent over the previous quarter after price, calendar and seasonal adjustment. Following a slight downward revision, the third quarter saw a rise of 0.7 percent and the second quarter an increase of 0.6 percent. Year on year, the third quarter was up by 2.2 percent and the fourth quarter by 2.3 percent. After calendar adjustment, the trend was upward throughout the year from 2.1 percent growth in the first quarter to 2.9 percent in the fourth quarter. For 2017 overall, growth came in at 2.2 percent, or 2.5 percent after calendar adjustment. Economic output in the fourth quarter 2017 was generated by a workforce of 44.7 million employees, according to preliminary calculations. That is 642,000 people or 1.5 percent more than in 2016. Sectors with the highest growth in employment were public services, education and healthcare (up 211,000 workers), corporate services (up 164,000 workers) and retail, transport and hospitality (up 111,000 workers). In manufacturing, employment rose at a below average rate, going up by only 58,000 jobs or 0.8 percent.
Growth in real GDP in percent 4
3 2.2 1.9
1.7
1.6
2
1
0
-1 I
II
III
IV
I
2014 change over previous year quarter
II
III 2015
IV
I
II
III 2016
change over previous quarter
IV
I
II
III
IV
2017 change over previous year
Source: Federal Statistical Office
On the income side of GDP, gross value added increased in all economic sectors in the fourth quarter 2017 compared to the previous year, except in the financial sector. The strongest growth was recorded by manufacturing, which increased by 4.4 percent, and the information and communication sector with a rise in gross value added of 4.2 percent. Corporate services also recorded an above average
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Economic momentum continues | Rosy prospects for 2018 08/03/2018
increase in gross value added of 2.7 percent. This was accompanied by a significant hike in jobs in this sector, going up by 164,000 workers. Strong growth in employment was seen in public services, education and healthcare (up 212,000 workers) and in retail, transport and hospitality (up 111,000 workers). Job creation was much less pronounced in manufacturing (up 58,000 workers) and in the information and communication sector (up 32,000 workers). On the expenditure side of GDP, growth momentum came almost exclusively from foreign trading. Exports increased over the previous quarter by 2.7 percent after price, seasonal and calendar adjustment. Imports went up by two percent in the same period. The resulting contribution of 0.5 percentage point to growth by foreign trade was the main driver of growth that quarter, which amounted to 0.6 percent. Private consumption in the fourth quarter remained level with the previous quarter. State consumption expenditure increased by 0.5 percent, as it had in the previous quarter. Consumption thus contributed a marginal tenth of a percentage point to growth. Gross fixed capital formation remained level. Plant and equipment investment increased over the previous quarter by 0.7 percent but this was cancelled out by a drop in construction investment (down 0.4 percent) and investment in other assets (down 0.1 percent). Exports strong in fourth quarter In the fourth quarter 2017, exports of goods and services increased compared to the same period last year by a total of 19.2 billion euros or 6.3 percent (country-specific seasonally adjusted data not available). More than 40 percent of this rise in exports came from deliveries to other countries in the euro area. Exports to the Netherlands increased by 2.68 billion euros, to Italy by 1.35 billion euros and to France by 1.04 billion euros. More goods and services also went to EU countries outside the euro area. Exports to Poland increased by 1.7 billion euros, to the Czech Republic by 777 million euros and to Hungary by 603 million euros. Exports to China surged in the fourth quarter, going up by 2.26 billion euros or eleven percent, to the US by 1.41 billion euros or 5.2 percent. Notable drops were registered in exports going to Hong Kong (down 726 million euros) and to the United Arab Emirates (down 1.33 billion euros or 30.5 percent). German imports also increased substantially in the third quarter 2017, going up by 17.6 billion euros or 7.2 percent compared to the previous year. The strongest growth, in nominal terms, was in imports from the Netherlands, which went up by 2.57 billion euros, and from Italy, which went up by 1.34 billion euros. Imports from Germany’s eastern neighbours, the Czech Republic (up 1.02 billion euros or 9.3 percent) and Poland (up 1.59 billion euros or 13.2 percent) showed above average growth both in absolute terms and compared to the same period last year. Imports from China (up four percent), and the US and France (both up 4.2 percent) showed slightly less than average growth. Sturdy increases were registered in imports from commodity suppliers like Norway (up 27.1 percent), Libya (up 290 percent) and Russia (up 8.4 percent). The nominal drop in imports from Switzerland was probably partly due to the increased value of the euro against the Swiss franc in comparison to last year.
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Economic momentum continues | Rosy prospects for 2018 08/03/2018
Development of exports and imports in selected countries in Q4 2017 Year-on-year change increase (+) or decrease (-) in exports in million euros
increase (+) or decrease (-) in imports
in %
in million euros
in %
Netherlands
22 531
+ 2 676
+ 13.5
Netherlands
24 096
+ 2 568
+ 11.9
China
22 846
+ 2 259
+ 11.0
Poland
13 595
+ 1 585
+ 13.2
Poland
15 519
+ 1 731
+ 12.6
Italy
14 507
+ 1 338
+ 10.2
USA
28 575
+ 1 413
+ 5.2
Czech Republic
12 008
+ 1 023
+
9.3
Italy
16 842
+ 1 345
+ 8.7
China
26 387
+ 1 014
+
4.0
France
26 518
+ 1 146
+ 4.5
Norway
4 147
+
884
+ 27.1
Austria
16 113
+ 1 043
+ 6.9
Austria
10 473
+
774
+
Russia
6 375
+
861
+ 15.6
Libya
926
+
688
+ 290.9
Belgium
11 003
+
782
+ 7.6
Mexico
2 212
+
681
+ 44.5
Czech Republic
10 502
+
777
+ 8.0
France
16 594
+
671
-
4.2
Turkey
5 590
+
605
+ 12.1
Russia
8 131
+
630
-
8.4
U. A. Emirates
3 026
- 1 329
- 30.5
Switzerland
11 100
-
855
-
7.2
325 004
+ 19 202
+ 6.3
Total
+ 17 642
+
7.2
Total
264 303
8.0
Sources: Federal Statistical Office, own calculations
Labour market: employment growth continues unabated According to preliminary data from the German Federal Statistical Office, the number of people in employment rose to 44.28 million in January 2018. That means around 625,000 more people (or 1.4 percent) were gainfully employed than in January 2017. The number of jobs subject to social security contributions also increased further. According to the latest projections by the German Federal Employment Agency, in November 2017 (latest available data) a total of 32.56 million people were in employment subject to social security contributions. This represents an increase of 711,200 people or 2.2 percent compared with one year ago. The number of jobs increased in almost all economic sectors year on year. The largest growth in jobs subject to social security contributions in absolute terms was recorded in corporate services, where 103,300 new jobs were created, an increase of 4.4 percent. Jobs in residential care homes and social services increased by 75,500 or 3.3 percent. The number of jobs increased by 66,700 (or 4.6 percent)
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Economic momentum continues | Rosy prospects for 2018 08/03/2018
in other business services and by 66,100 (or 3.9 percent) in transport and storage. The number of workers in manufacturing increased by 81,400 or 1.2 percent. In financial and insurance services, in contrast, the number of jobs dropped notably by 16,000 or 1.6 percent.
German labour market* 33
4 Unemployed persons (right axis)
32 3 31 2 30
Employed persons covered by social security (left axis) 1
29
2
28 2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
0
2018
Difference in the number of workers making social security contributions from the same month last year (right axis)
*seasonally adjusted in million Source: Federal Employment Agency
Other forms of employment dropped year on year. The number of self-employed including contributing family workers dropped by 25,000, or 0.6 percent, to 4.27 million in the fourth quarter 2017. The number of people exclusively in marginal employment decreased by 63,000 (1.3 percent) to 4.73 million in December 2017, according to preliminary figures from the Federal Employment Agency. In February 2018, the Federal Employment Agency registered a total of 2.55 million unemployed individuals. This represents a decrease of 216,000 people without employment, or 7.8 percent year on year. In February 2018, the unemployment rate as calculated by the Federal Employment Agency was 5.4 percent.
Industry Incoming orders for industry: large orders cause year-end spike In December 2017, incoming orders in German industry increased strongly by 3.8 percent over the previous month according to preliminary calculations and after price, calendar and seasonal adjustment. The high growth was mainly due to an unusual amount of large incoming orders. Without these, incoming orders would only have gone up by 0.8 percent. Domestic orders increased only
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Economic momentum continues | Rosy prospects for 2018 08/03/2018
marginally, going up just 0.7 percent compared to the previous month. Orders from abroad increased by a substantial 5.9 percent in December, fuelled mainly by orders from within the euro area (up 11.2 percent). Countries outside the euro area ordered 2.7 percent more industrial goods.
New orders, manufacturing 126
10
122
8
118
6 3.7
114 110
4.1 4 2
0.8 106
0 -1.1
102
-2
98
-4 2014
2015
2016
2017
Change over previous year, two-month-average, in percent (right axis) Volume index in manufacturing, two-month-average, seasonally adjusted (left axis) Change over previous quarter (q-o-q), in percent Source: Federal Statistical Office
In the less volatile two-month comparison, the period November/December 2017 compared to September/October shows an increase of 2.2 percent. The subdued trend in domestic incoming orders with an increase of 0.5 percent and the robust increase in foreign orders (up 3.3 percent) is also reflected in these figures. Among the main groups of industrial goods, producers of intermediate goods saw incoming orders in the fourth quarter 2017 increase by 2.4 percent compared to the previous quarter. This was the fifth consecutive quarterly increase. And while domestic demand also rose for the second time in a row, the increase was much weaker than in foreign incoming orders, which increased for the seventh quarter in a row, this time by four percent. Demand for capital goods increased in the fourth quarter 2017 by 5.5 percent compared to the previous quarter. This was the largest quarterly increase registered since spring 2010. Foreign companies, above all, ordered many capital goods from Germany. After going up by 4.9 percent in the third quarter, orders were up by 7.2 percent in the last quarter of the year. Domestic companies increased orders by 2.5 percent compared to the previous quarter, making this the third consecutive quarterly increase.
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Economic momentum continues | Rosy prospects for 2018 08/03/2018
Consumption goods producers registered an increase in orders in the fourth quarter 2017 by 1.3 percent compared to the third quarter. This was the fifth quarterly increase in a row. Overall, demand for consumption goods increased steadily throughout this period but only at low rates. Domestic and foreign demand increased similarly, going up 1.1 percent and 1.5 percent respectively. Overall, incoming orders for industry were healthily buoyant in the second half of 2017. Incoming orders increased every month over the previous year by more than five percent in the two-month comparison. While demand from at home dominated during the summer months, foreign demand rose much more steeply from September onwards. Higher than five percent increases in incoming orders over a period of six months were last seen at the turn of the year 2013/2014 and after the global financial crisis in 2010 and 2011. For 2017 overall, German industry registered a total increase in orders of 3.3 percent. Dynamic growth in industrial production ebbs slightly towards year end In December 2017, industrial production dropped by 0.6 percent compared to the previous month following seasonal and calendar adjustment. However, in view of the vigorous rise of 3.1 percent in November, this should not be interpreted as a development running counter to the general positive economic trend. According to the latest figures, the only increase was in energy production (up 1.4 percent). Activity in the construction sector and building industry proper was down. Manufacturing also reduced its production slightly (down 0.8 percent). While manufacturers of intermediate goods achieved a 1.5 percent increase in production levels, production of consumption and capital goods also dipped. Production development in the manufacturing industry 2016 2017 original value
year on year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 calendar adjusted
Q2
compared to previous period Q3 Q4 Oct Nov sesonally and calendar adjusted
Dec
Production
0.9
2.8
1.1
3.5
4.3
4.9
1.9
1.1
0.7
-1.2
3.1
-0.6
Industry
1.4
3.0
1.2
3.1
4.7
5.5
1.4
1.8
1.0
-1.9
4.4
-0.8
Intermediate goods
1.2
3.7
1.5
3.8
5.4
6.7
1.8
1.6
2.0
-0.7
3.0
1.5
Capital goods
1.5
2.8
0.9
2.9
4.9
5.4
1.5
2.0
0.5
-2.6
6.1
-2.6
Consumer goods
1.5
2.1
1.5
2.0
3.6
3.6
0.8
1.7
-0.1
-2.6
3.1
-0.5
Energy
-1.1
-0.4
-0.6
2.7
-1.7
-0.6
3.5
-2.7
0.9
5.2
-5.3
1.4
Building industry
2.6
3.4
2.1
6.5
4.3
4.5
3.1
-1.1
-1.0
-1.1
0.9
-1.7
Building industry proper
4.2
5.9
4.7
9.6
6.8
5.8
5.1
-0.8
-2.7
-2.6
2.7
-5.6
Sources: Federal Statistical Office, own calculations
The December figures round off the results for the fourth quarter 2017, which show that industrial production increased by 0.7 percent over the previous quarter. This was the sixth consecutive increase, although the pace of growth in production has slowed slightly most recently. The main factor curbing growth was a drop in construction production, which saw the second moderate drop in a row.
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Economic momentum continues | Rosy prospects for 2018 08/03/2018
Energy production, meanwhile, rose slightly. Manufacturing recorded an increase of one percent in output compared to the previous quarter. Year-on-year, industrial production expanded by 5.5 percent. Among the main industrial groups, the producers of intermediate goods increased their output by two percent, the sixth consecutive increase. The production of capital goods rose much less, going up only 0.5 percent. Consumer goods producers cut output by a marginal 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter. Industrial production 2017: strongest increase in six years For 2017 overall, industrial production increased by three percent on the back of a strong second half of the year. This is the biggest increase seen in production for six years and matches our growth forecast of November 2017 (Industry Report II/2017). Our growth forecast at the beginning of 2017 was exceeded by a good half a percent. Among the main industrial groups, the production of intermediate goods experienced the strongest growth, going up 3.7 percent. Capital goods producers managed to expand their production by 2.8 percent, and production of consumer goods also increased substantially, going up 2.1 percent.
Production, manufacturing 120
8
118
7
116
6
114
5
112
4
110
3 1.8
108
1.3
2
1.4 1.0
106
1
104
0
102
-1
100
-2 2014
2015
2016
2017
Change over previous year, two-month-comparison, in percent (right axis) Volume index in manufacturing, two-month-average, seasonally adjusted (left axis) Change over previous quarter (q-o-q), in percent Source: Federal Statistical Office
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Economic momentum continues | Rosy prospects for 2018 08/03/2018
High capacity utilisation at start of 2018 The strong upward trend in industrial production over the last three quarters has gone hand in hand with a clear increase in capacity utilisation. In manufacturing, the capacity utilisation rate increased in the first quarter of the year by 2.2 percentage points compared to the previous year, going up to 87.9 percent. Production capacity rates were thus 4.9 percentage points higher than on average for the last ten years. This is also the highest deviation from the long-term average. Excluding food, beverages and tobacco, the capacity utilisation in manufacturing was even higher at 88.7, though still somewhat more than one percentage point below the record rate from the year 2007. Averaging 3.5 production months, the order backlog in industry overall reached a new all-time high. Among the individual main industrial groups, the producers of intermediate goods needed 2.9 production months to process their orders, which is a new record for the sector. Consumer goods producers just fell short of their record high registered in the first quarter of 2016. The producers of capital goods have meanwhile accumulated orders for 4.3 production months in their order books, still shy of the alltime high from the years 1991 and 1992 that was triggered by the high investment needs following the reunification of Germany. Prospects for 2018 remain good Unlike last year, manufacturing is starting into the new year with a statistical overhang in all of the main industrial groups. If production remains at the fourth quarter level it would still mean an in-crease in production of two percent in manufacturing for the year overall. The statistical overhang for the producers of intermediate goods is 2.7 percent, for capital goods producers 1.7 percent. Consumer goods producers are going into 2018 with a statistical overhang of one percent. Industrial activity at the beginning of 2018 was still pointing up. The order intake in the last two quarters was so buoyant that all orders were not fully worked off by the end of 2017. Despite the sturdy increase in capacity utilisation in early 2018, the order backlog in manufacturing should keep manufacturers busy up until spring. Although the purchasing managers’ index for industry pointed down for the first two months of 2018, it was still at over 60 points in both months and thus clearly above the expansion threshold of 50 index points.
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Economic momentum continues | Rosy prospects for 2018 08/03/2018
Business climate weakens following record levels at year end Sentiment in German trade and industry clouded over at the beginning of the year. The ifo business climate index dropped 2.2 percentage points in February compared to the previous month.
ifo Business-Cycle Clock German manufacturing* Business expectations for the next six month
Upswing
Boom
25 Jan 2018
Jan 2014 Jan 2011
15 Jan 2010
February 2018
5
Jan 2016 Jan 2015
-5
Jan 2017 Jan 2012
Jan 2013
-15 Recession
Downswing
-25 -30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Assesment of current business situation *Balances, seasonally adjusted Source: ifo Institut
The drop in sentiment was thus more pronounced than it was after the Brexit vote two years ago. However, in view of the fact that the business climate index climbed to one record high after the other in the last few months, these figures indicate a technical correction rather than a turnaround in sentiment. The companies surveyed rated both current business and their prospects for the next six months lower than they had in January. Nonetheless, the majority of companies surveyed still assessed current business and business prospects as positive. The business climate in wholesale and retail was also not quite as bright, with both current business and prospects down slightly. The downward trend was marginally more pronounced in retail than it was in wholesale. In the building industry proper, the business climate index dropped on account of markedly less positive business prospects, while current business was rated more positive than ever before. In manufacturing, the business climate also deteriorated slightly. Prospects in February were down for the third time in a row. The companies surveyed also rated their current business as somewhat less good than the previous month. The export prospects of companies also dipped slightly for the third month in a row.
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Economic momentum continues | Rosy prospects for 2018 08/03/2018
Outlook The rate of economic growth registered in late 2017 is set to continue in the course of the year. The German economy is starting the current year with a statistical overhang of one percentage point, which means that even if economic output stagnates, it will still grow by one percent. At present, however, a standstill is not on the cards. Most economic and sentiment indicators are pointing to a continued expansion in economic activity. There is a clear economic upswing around the world. The International Monetary Fund (IMF 2018) is expecting economic activity to decline in just six countries (IMF 2017a). Overall, the IMF expects the global economy to slightly outpace last year’s growth and expand by 3.9 percent. After the latest developments in US fiscal policy, we expect global economic growth to be as much as four percent. Global trade in goods and services should also grow by a sturdy 4.6 percent this year (Global Growth Outlook 2018).
The 12 most important export markets for German companies in 2017 Exports
Change over
Share
previous year in billion euros
in percent
GDP forecast in percent over previous year
in percent
IMF 2018
EU-COM 2018
USA
111.5
4.3
8.7
2.7*
2.3
France
105.2
3.8
8.2
1.9*
2.0**
China
86.2
13.3
6.7
6.6*
6.5
Netherlands
85.9
8.6
6.7
2.6
2.9**
UK
84.4
-2.0
6.6
1.5*
1.4**
Italy
65.6
6.7
5.1
1.4*
1.5**
Austria
62.8
5.1
4.9
1.9
2.9**
Poland
59.5
8.6
4.7
3.3
4.2**
Switzerland
54.0
7.3
4.2
1.3
1.8
Belgium
44.3
6.0
3.5
1.6
1.8**
Spain
43.0
5.9
3.4
2.4*
2.6**
Czech Republic
41.6
8.7
3.3
2.6
3.2**
844.1
6.0
66.0
1.279.0
6.0
100.0
3.9*
3.7
Top 12 World
Sources: Federal Statistical Office, IMF (October 2017; *January 2018), European Commission (November 2017; **February 2018)
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Economic momentum continues | Rosy prospects for 2018 08/03/2018
The outlook for domestic demand in 2018 is also favourable. We expect employment to continue to rise this year, with a particular trend towards more jobs subject to social security contributions. Indications pointing in this direction are the high number of jobs available and the increasingly pronounced labour bottlenecks in individual occupations. Wage increases above the rate of inflation in the main sectors should also boost private purchasing power. The wage agreement in the metal and electrical and electronics industry, with wages going up by 4.3 percent, for example, corresponds to an increase in nominal terms well above the 1.8 percent inflation rate forecast for 2018 (SVR 2017). The collective bargaining negotiations for the civil service (at federal and municipal level), the construction industry and the chemical industry are still ongoing. The foreign trading environment should also impact favourably on German exports. Stable economic development is forecast for the key destinations of German exports. Industrial order intake from abroad was up by slightly over ten percent in the fourth quarter, much stronger than the rise in domestic orders. We expect German exports of goods and services to increase by around five percent for 2018. As rising exports lead to higher demand for intermediate goods and also raise domestic demand for consumer and capital goods, we may well see imports rising a little more strongly. All in all, net exports will thus not be making much of a contribution to pushing up GDP. The cut in the pension insurance contribution of 0.1 percentage points should also nudge up the disposable income of private households. A number of tax changes that came into force at the turn of the year such as an increase in the basic tax-free allowance, the higher tax allowance for children and a higher child benefit should cut the tax bill for taxpayers by a total of four billion euros, according to the German finance ministry. These factors create a favourable environment for an upturn in private consumption, which correlates with the consumer climate assessment made by German consumer research firm GfK. According to GfK, income and economic prospects improved in January 2018 as did the willingness of consumers to make major purchases. We expect private consumption expenditure to increase by two percent this year. For state consumption expenditure we expect an increase of around 1.5 percent in real terms this year. Investment activity is also likely to pick up pace further in the course of this year. We expect plant and equipment investment in particular to liven up this year. The persistently high capacity utilisation in industry and the global economic upturn should progressively trigger not just replacement but also investment to expand capacities. In previous cyclical upturns, investment in machinery and equipment has always been in the higher one digit or lower two digit range. Based on this, we expect plant and equipment investment to increase by 7.5 percent in real terms. Despite the high level of employment and workload in the construction industry, we think this sector has reached its capacity limit. The growth potential for construction investment is therefore limited, so we only expect to see an increase of around 2.5 percent here. We expect investment in other assets (software, research and development) to increase by 4.5 percent, which is the average rate of growth of the last four years. This would lead to a 4.5 percent rise in gross fixed capital formation compared to the previous year. All in all, we expect GDP to increase by 2 Âź percent in real terms over the previous year. The annual results will not be over or understated by calendar effects this year.
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Economic momentum continues | Rosy prospects for 2018 08/03/2018
BD forecast for 2017/18 and comparison: real economic output, change over previous year
IST 2017
Federal Government
BDI 2017*
2018
2018
European Commission 2018
GDP, real
2,2
1,5
2Âź
2,4
2,1
Consumption
1,8
1,8
1,9
-
-
-Private Consumption
1,9
1,5
2,0
1,9
1,9
-Public Consumption
1,6
2,8
1,5
1,8
2,3
3,3
2,8
4,5
3,8
3,6
- Machinery and Equipment
4,0
2,5
7,5
5,0
3,7
- Construction
2,7
3,0
2,5
2,8
-
- Other
3,5
2,7
4,5
4,2
-
Exports
4,7
2,0
5,0
5,3
4,0
Imports
5,1
3,0
6,0
5,8
5,0
Net Exports, Economic Output
0,2
-0,4
0,0
0,2
-0,1
Investment
Sources: Federal Statistical Office, Federal Government, European Commission (November 2017), own calculations (*forecast Quarterly Report I / 2017; March 2017)
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Economic momentum continues | Rosy prospects for 2018 08/03/2018
Sources BDI. Global Growth Outlook (2018). Back to four percent growth. Global economic growth is gathering pace, with financial risks also rising. February. Berlin. European Commission (2018). Winter forecast. February. Brussels. IMF (2018). World Economic Outlook Update. January. Washington, D.C. --- (2017a). World Economic Outlook. October. Washington, D.C. Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung (2017). Jahresgutachten 2017/18 „Für eine zukunftsorientierte Wirtschaftspolitik“. November. Wiesbaden.
Imprint Bundesverband der Deutschen Industrie e.V. (BDI) Breite Straße 29 10178 Berlin T: +49 30 2028-0 www.bdi.eu Author Thomas Hüne T: +49 30 2028-1592 t.huene@bdi.eu Editorial/Graphics Dr. Klaus Günter Deutsch T: +49 30 2028-1591 k.deutsch@bdi.eu Marta Gancarek T: +49 30 2028-1588 m.gancarek@bdi.eu
This Quarterly Report is a translation based on “Quartalsbericht I / 2018” as of 1 March 2018.
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Economic momentum continues | Rosy prospects for 2018 08/03/2018
Basic data for national accounts GDP (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted) Change over previous period in percent 2016
2017
2016
2017
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Consumption
2.5
1.8
0.3
0,6
0.7
0.8
-0.0
0.1
-Private Consumption
2.0
1.9
0.4
0,6
0.8
0.9
-0.2
0.0
-Public Consumption
4.0
1.6
0.2
0,5
0.3
0.3
0.5
0.5
Investment
2.3
3.3
0.5
-0,0
2.6
1.5
0.4
0.0
-Machinery and Equipment
1.1
4.0
0.7
-1,3
2.6
3.3
1.3
0.7
-Construction
3.0
2.7
0.2
1,0
2.9
0.5
-0.3
-0.4
-Other
2.6
3.5
0.9
-0,4
2.0
0.9
0.6
-0.1
Domestic Demand
2,3
2.2
0.8
0,8
0.3
1.2
0.4
0.1
Exports
2.6
4.7
-0.2
1,3
1.7
1.0
1.8
2.7
Imports
3.7
5.1
0.7
2,5
0.4
2.4
1.1
2.0
Total
1.9
2.2
0.3
0,4
0.9
0.6
0.7
0.6
Contribution to growth (in percentage points) Consumption
1.8
1.3
0.2
0,4
0.5
0.6
-0.0
0.1
-Private Consumption
1.1
1.0
0.2
0,3
0.4
0.5
-0.1
0.0
-Public Consumption
0.8
0.3
0.0
0,1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.5
0.7
0.1
0,0
0.5
0.3
0.1
0.0
-Machinery and Equipment
0.1
0.3
0.1
-0,1
0.2
0,2
0.1
0.0
-Construction
0.3
0.3
0.0
0,1
0.3
0.1
-0.0
-0.0
-Other
0.1
0.1
0.0
0,0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Change in stocks and the like
-0.2
0.1
0.4
0,3
-0.7
0.0
0.0
-0.0
Domestic Demand
2.1
2.0
0.7
0,8
0.3
1.1
0.4
0.1
Net Exports
-0.2
0.2
-0.4
-0,4
0.6
-0.5
0.4
0.5
Investment
Source: Federal Statistical Office
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