QIII-2018 QUARTERLY REPORT GERMANY
German economy keeps on growing GDP rises just under two percent in first half of 2018
The upturn is continuing but no longer at the rate anticipated. We thus need to revise our growth forecast from early 2018. We now expect real economic output to increase by only two percent over last year (until now: 2.25 percent).
We have also revised our export expectations. In the first half of the year, German exports only increased by around three percent in real terms. We now expect to see an increase of 3.5 percent for the year overall (until now: five percent).
GDP has now increased every quarter for the past thirteen quarters after price, calendar and seasonal adjustment. Year-on-year, quarterly GDP increased for the 23rd consecutive time. Production capacity utilisation in industry remains high (87.7 percent) – 4.6 percentage points higher than the average of the last ten years.
Investment growth has been much lower so far this year than we expected. The investment cycle has not yet come to an end, but momentum is much lower than in past investment cycles.
The economic output in the second quarter 2018 was generated by a workforce of 44.8 million employees. That is around 600,000 or 1.4 percent more than last year. Employment growth in manufacturing was above average with 124,000 new jobs (up 1.6 percent).
German economy keeps on growing | GDP rises just under two percent in first half of 2018 26/09/2018
Content The German economy......................................................................................................................... 3 GDP grows by 1.9 percent in first half of 2018 ...................................................................................... 3 Foreign trade: imports much stronger than exports in second quarter ................................................. 4 Labour market: robust employment growth continues throughout summer .......................................... 6 Industry ................................................................................................................................................ 7 Production expands robustly in second quarter; latest figures show slight dip ..................................... 8 Outlook ............................................................................................................................................... 11 Further growth ahead for the German economy ................................................................................. 11 Imprint ................................................................................................................................................ 13 Basic data for national accounts ..................................................................................................... 14
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German economy keeps on growing | GDP rises just under two percent in first half of 2018 26/09/2018
The German economy GDP grows by 1.9 percent in first half of 2018 The German economy is still growing, but at a slightly slower pace than one year ago. Gross domestic product increased by 0.5 percent in the second quarter 2018 over the previous quarter after price, calendar and seasonal adjustment, following 0.4 percent growth in the first quarter. Compared to last year, real economic output rose by 2.3 percent in the second quarter. After calendar adjustment – the second quarter last year had one work day less – the increase in GDP was two percent. Though economic momentum has picked up somewhat following a rather weak start to the year, it has failed to match last year’s pace. GDP has nevertheless now increased over the previous quarter after price, seasonal and calendar adjustment for the thirteenth time in a row, and, year-on-year, for the 23rd consecutive time.
Growth in real GDP 4
3 2.2
2.2 1.7
2
1
0
-1 I
II
III
IV
I
2015
change over previous year quarter
II
III 2016
IV
I
II
III 2017
change over previous quarter
IV
I
II
III
IV
2018
change over previous year
Source: Federal Statistical Office
The economic output in the second quarter 2018 was generated by a workforce of 44.8 million employees. That is around 600,000 or 1.4 percent more than in the second quarter last year. With the exception of agriculture and forestry and financial and insurance services, employment increased in all economic sectors. Sectors with the highest growth in employment were public services, education and healthcare (up 200,000 workers), retail, transport and hospitality (up 108,000) and corporate services (up 87,000). In manufacturing, employment also rose above average, creating 124,000 new jobs (up 1.6 percent). Gross value added in the information and communication sector went up 4.8 percent over the same period last year, rising almost twice as much as the economy overall. Manufacturing and corporate services also performed above average, with real value added rising by
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German economy keeps on growing | GDP rises just under two percent in first half of 2018 26/09/2018
3.9 percent and three percent respectively. Sectors with below-average growth in real value added were miscellaneous services, real estate and financial and insurance services. On the expenditure side of GDP, growth momentum in the second quarter over the previous year came largely from domestic factors. Household consumption expenditure increased in the second quarter 2018 by one percent year-on-year after price adjustment. State consumption expenditure also increased on a similar scale. Overall, consumption contributed 0.7 percentage points to GDP growth. Gross fixed capital formation increased by 3.4 percent compared to the same period last year, with investment levels rising considerably in both plant and equipment (up 5.4 percent) and in buildings (up 3.2 percent). Investment in other assets only rose marginally, as in the first quarter, going up 0.4 percent. Buoyed by robust changes in stocks, gross fixed capital formation increased its contribution to growth from 0.6 to 1.3 percent points, lifting the overall domestic contribution to growth to two percentage points. In contrast to the start of the year, net exports also managed to contribute to GDP growth. Exports just about outpaced imports in the second quarter, contributing 0.4 percentage points to growth. Foreign trade: imports much stronger than exports in second quarter In the second quarter 2018, exports increased over the same period last year by a total of 16.4 billion euros, or 5.1 percent, to 335 billion euros (country-specific seasonally adjusted data not available. The largest nominal growth in exports were those to China, which surged up by 2.61 billion euros or 12.7 percent. Exports to countries in the EU also increased, to the Netherlands by 1.92 billion euros or 9.2 percent, to Ireland by 1.42 billion euros or 87.7 percent, to Denmark by 1.42 billion euros or 29.4 percent and to Italy by 1.37 billion euros or 8.2 percent. Among countries outside the European Union, exports to the US were up 1.44 billion euros or 5.4 percent, and to Singapore by almost half (up 824 million euros or 48.7 percent). German exports to the Gulf States, on the other hand, decreased. Exports to the United Arab Emirates dropped by 32 million euros or 17.7 percent, to Egypt by 328 million or 30.8 percent. Exports to Algeria more than halved in the second quarter 2018 (down 63.3 percent or 911 million euros), and to Vietnam by just under one quarter (down 230 million euros or 24.1 percent). Exports to the United Kingdom remained stable, just dipping slightly year-on-year. Imports also increased considerably in the second quarter 2018. Compared to the second quarter last year, imports were up by 16.64 billion euros, or 8.3 percent, to 256.6 billion euros. The strongest growth in nominal terms was in imports from Italy (up 1.59 billion euros or 11.2 percent), from the Netherlands (up 1.48 billion euros or 6.6 percent) and Poland (up 1.20 billion or 9.7 percent). Imports from Russia increased by 1.12 billion euros or 14.5 percent, although these figures also reflect the higher prices for energy commodities, as do the imports from Norway (up 934 million euros or 26.8 percent). Even imports from the United Kingdom increased steeply, going up 956 million euros or 10.7 percent. Big drops were registered in imports coming from Australia (down 199 million euros or 22.5 percent) and Switzerland (down 183 million euros or 1.6 percent).
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German economy keeps on growing | GDP rises just under two percent in first half of 2018 26/09/2018
German exports and imports in Q2 2018 in selected countries Year-on-year change increase (+) or decrease (-) in exports in million euros
increase (+) or decrease (-) in imports
in %
China
23 261
+ 2 614
+
12.7
Netherlands
22 897
+ 1 921
+
USA
27 975
+ 1 435
Ireland
3 047
Denmark
in million euros
in %
Italy
15 812
+ 1 588
+ 11.2
9.2
Netherlands
23 885
+ 1 480
+
6.6
+
5.4
Poland
13 589
+ 1 199
+
9.7
+ 1 424
+
87.7
Russia
8 821
+ 1 120
+ 14.5
6 224
+ 1 413
+
29.4
U.K.
9 931
+
956
+ 10.7
Italy
18 017
+ 1 372
+
8.2
Norway
4 421
+
934
+ 26.8
Poland
15 565
+
852
+
5.8
Spain
8 778
+
747
+
9.3
Singapore
2 516
+
824
+
48.7
Belgium
11 363
+
736
+
6.9
Hungary
7 034
+
684
+
10.8
Austria
10 891
+
717
+
7.0
11 583
+
619
+
5.6
Hungary
7 337
+
690
+ 10.4
Vietnam
722
-
230
-
24.1
Slovakia
3 718
-
97
-
2.5
Egypt
739
-
328
-
30.8
Algeria
130
-
177
-
57.6
2 010
-
432
-
17.7
Switzerland
11 234
-
183
-
1.6
529
-
911
-
63.3
Australia
687
-
199
-
22.5
+ 16 380
+
5.1
+ 16 637
+
6.5
Spain
U.A. Emirates Algeria Total
334 980
Total
273 467
Sources: Federal Statistical Office, own calculations
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German economy keeps on growing | GDP rises just under two percent in first half of 2018 26/09/2018
Labour market: robust employment growth continues throughout summer According to preliminary data from the German Federal Statistical Office, the number of people in employment was 44.95 million in August 2018. That means around 574,000 more people (or 1.3 percent) were gainfully employed compared to August last year. The increase in employment can be largely attributed to a rise in the number of jobs subject to social security contributions. According to the latest projections by the German Federal Employment Agency, in June 2018 (latest available data) a total of 32.87 million people were in employment subject to social security contributions. This represents an increase of around 704,400 people or 2.2 percent compared with one year ago. The number of full-time jobs subject to social security contributions went up by 398,000 or 1.7 percent, while part-time jobs subject to social security contributions increased by 306,000 or 3.4 percent. Other forms of employment dropped year-on-year. The number of self-employed including contributing family workers went down by 76,000, or 1.8 percent, to 4.24 million in the second quarter 2018. The number of people exclusively in marginal employment decreased by 67,000 or 1.4 percent to 4.73 million in June 2018, according to preliminary figures from the Federal Employment Agency. In August 2018, the number of unemployed individuals dropped to 2.351 million. This represents a decrease of 194,000 people without employment year-on-year. The unemployment rate was at 5.2 percent in August 2018, according to the Federal Employment Agency. This corresponds to an unemployment rate of 3.4 percent according to the ILO definition.
German labour market* 33
4
Unemployed persons (right axis) 32 3
31 2 30
Employed persons covered by social security (left axis) 1
29
2
28 2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
0
2018
Difference in the number of workers making social security contributions from the same month last year (right axis)
*seasonally adjusted in million Source: Federal Employment Agency
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German economy keeps on growing | GDP rises just under two percent in first half of 2018 26/09/2018
Industry Incoming orders in industry: back to normal or the end of a boom? In July 2018, incoming orders in German industry dropped by 0.9 percent over the previous month according to preliminary calculations and after price, calendar and seasonal adjustment. At the same time, the already weak June results were confirmed with only a slight upward revision to minus 3.9 percent. Excluding large incoming orders, orders received in July 2018 dropped by as much as two percent. Weak foreign demand was the main factor driving orders down. Orders from the euro area were down 2.7 percent on the previous month, and, from non-euro countries, by four percent. Domestic demand trended the other way, rising by 2.4 percent.
New orders, manufacturing 114
10 8
110 6 106
3.4
4 2
102
0 98 -2
-1.6 -2.2
-2.7
94
-4 2015
2016
2017
2018
Change over previous year, two-month-average, in percent (right axis) Volume index in manufacturing, two-month-average, seasonally adjusted (left axis) Change over previous quarter (q-o-q), in percent Source: Federal Statistical Office
In the less volatile two-month comparison, the period June/July compared to April/May 2018 shows orders falling by 3.1 percent. For the first time in just over two years, figures were down year-on-year as well (by 0.8 percent). Foreign orders were primarily responsible for this downturn. Demand from non-euro countries dropped eight percent, but only 1.9 percent from euro countries. The most recent figures for domestic orders shows a slight rise of 0.6 percent. Among the main groups of industrial goods, producers of intermediate goods recorded 1.7 percent less orders in June/July 2018 than in April/May 2018. While domestic demand grew by two percent, demand from abroad dropped a steep 5.2 percent. Year-on-year, orders were still ahead though, up 1.5 percent according to the latest figures.
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German economy keeps on growing | GDP rises just under two percent in first half of 2018 26/09/2018
Demand for capital goods dropped by a hefty 4.1 percent in the two-month comparison between June/July and April/May 2018. While domestic demand for capital goods did not fall any further for the first time this year, foreign demand decreased substantially, going down by 6.5 percent. Orders for consumer goods were also down in June/July 2018 compared to April/May, falling by 2.3 percent overall. While demand from home suffered its first drop in four months and, at 4.3 percent, a considerable one at that, foreign orders only decreased by a moderate 0.8 percent. The picture yearon-year is brighter though, with orders still up by 1.4 percent. The steady and sustained upward trend in incoming orders for German industry that has lasted since the middle of 2016, flattened out considerably in the first half of 2018. The period of strong growth definitely seems to have come to an end, although industrial momentum is not likely to peter out as yet. The order books in industry are still full and need to be worked through. Production expands robustly in second quarter; latest figures show slight dip Output in manufacturing in July 2018 dropped by 1.1 percent compared to June 2018 after price, calendar and seasonal adjustment according to preliminary figures. This was the second drop in a row. While energy production stopped increasing in July, the construction industry still registered an increase of 2.6 percent. Within industry, production levels dropped by 1.9 percent in July compared to June. The downturn spread across all the main sectors of industry. Capital goods recorded the most substantial decrease, going down by 2.5 percent. The producers of intermediates cut production by 1.9 percent, while the production of consumer goods dipped 0.9 percent. Production development in the manufacturing industry Year on year change in percent 2017 2017 2018 year Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 original value calendar adjusted 2016
compared to previous period in percent 2017 2018 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 June July seasonally and calendar adjusted
Production
2.0
2.7
4.1
4.7
3.9
2.4
1.1
0.7
0.0
0.4
-0.7
-1.1
Industry
1.5
2.9
4.7
5.3
4.3
3.0
1.7
0.9
0.1
0.3
-0.7
-1.9
Intermediat goods
1.2
3.5
5.2
6.3
3.8
2.0
1.7
1.3
-0.8
-0.3
-0.8
-1.4
Capital goods
1.8
2.9
4.8
5.4
4.3
3.0
1.8
0.8
0.1
0.2
-0.3
-2.5
Consumer goods
1.6
1.9
3.5
3.2
4.8
5.3
1.5
-0.1
2.0
1.7
-1.6
-0.9
-1.2
-0.1
-1.8
0.3
0.6
-3.4
-2.1
1.3
-0.6
-2.0
0.9
0.0
5.9
2.3
3.2
3.3
3.5
1.5
-0.7
0.0
0.1
2.0
-1.9
2.6
3.6
5.2
6.0
4.9
4.7
4.7
-0.7
-1.7
1.0
6.5
-3.3
0.9
Energy Construction industry Construction industry proper
Sources: Federal Statistical Office, own calculations
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German economy keeps on growing | GDP rises just under two percent in first half of 2018 26/09/2018
The less volatile two-month comparison shows a similar trend. Between June/July 2018 and April/May 2018, manufacturing output was down by 0.2 percent but still positive year-on-year. The construction industry managed to increase production by 2.7 percent compared to last year and the energy sector by 1.4 percent. While industrial production was 0.5 percent lower in June/July 2018 compared to April/May 2018, it was nonetheless 1.9 percent up on last year. Among the main industrial sectors, only consumer goods producers were able to increase their production in the twomonth comparison. The production of intermediates nudged down by 0.1 percent, while capital goods production dropped by 1.2 percent. All sectors produced more than one year previously. Production trended sideways at a high level. Production capacity utilisation rates are high and order books are full so the subdued level of incoming orders should not really affect the course of production much in the medium term. The overall performance of the first seven months of the year for manufacturing, with a production increase of slightly over three percent compared to the same period last year, is really relatively good. Production, manufacturing 110
8 7
108
6 106
5 4
104
3 102
2 0.9
100
0.1
1
0.3
0 98 -1.6 96
-1 -2
2015 2016 2017 Change over previous year, two-month-comparison, in percent (right axis) Volume index in manufacturing, two-month-average, seasonally adjusted (left axis) Change over previous quarter (q-o-q), in percent
2018
Source: Federal Statistical Office
Capacity utilisation in industry still high The production capacity utilisation rate in industry is still high, though lower than the 88 percent recorded in the first quarter. In the second quarter, capacity utilisation dipped down to 87.7 percent, remaining at that level in the third quarter. Capacity utilisation in industry is thus still 4.6 percentage points higher than the average of the last ten years. Excluding food, beverages and tobacco, capacity utilisation in manufacturing even went up to 88.2 percent in the third quarter, 4.8 percentage points higher than the long-term average. According to figures from the ifo Institute, the order backlog in industry in the third quarter 2018 was unusually high at an average of 3.4 production months.
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German economy keeps on growing | GDP rises just under two percent in first half of 2018 26/09/2018
Business climate: strong increase in August Sentiment in industry has clouded over slightly but consistently since the start of the 2018. The ifo business climate index for Germany has lost a total of 3.5 index points in the last eight months. The main factor driving sentiment down was the less favourable rating by companies of their business expectations. In August 2018, this trend turned around. Companies were not only slightly more satisfied with their current business situation, they were also considerably more positive about their prospects for the first time since the turn of the year. Sentiment brightened more or less across all sectors. The index for wholesale and retail increased moderately. Traders were marginally less pleased with their current situation, but were also slightly less sceptical about their future business development. In services, the business climate improved significantly. Service providers were satisfied with their current situation and their prospects improved as much as last seen in 2009. The business climate index in the building industry proper continued its record-breaking upward flight. Construction companies were moderately more satisfied with their current situation and significantly more optimistic about the coming year. In manufacturing, the index improved following six months of pointing down. Although companies in the sector rated their current business situation as slightly less positive, business prospects for the coming six months recorded its biggest increase in more than two years. After six meagre months, export prospects brightened by just over one percent in July and August.
Business expectaions for the next six month
ifo Business-Cycle Clock German manufacturing* 25
Upswing
Boom Jan 2011
Jan 2014
Jan 2018
15 Jan 2010
5
August 2018
Jan 2017 Jan 2016 Jan 2015
-5
Jan 2012
Jan 2013
-15
-25
Downswing
Recession -30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Assesment of current business situation *Balances, seasonally adjusted Source: ifo Institut
10
German economy keeps on growing | GDP rises just under two percent in first half of 2018 26/09/2018
Outlook Further growth ahead for the German economy After a bumpy start to the year in the first quarter, the German economy regained its normal pace of growth in the second quarter. Factoring in the German Federal Statistical Office’s upward revision of the first quarter 2018, economic output increased by just under two percent in the first six months of the year. The economy is still growing, but slower than expected so we need to adjust our growth forecast of early 2018. Among the domestic factors, consumption expenditure is likely to rise by only 1.5 percent, contrary to our expectations. Private consumption is still buoyed by rising employment, with the number of jobs subject to social security contributions increasing primarily. Furthermore, the nominal wage increases, some over four percent, agreed in the first half of the year in many major industries, should animate consumer demand. However, the loss in real purchasing power caused by the increased commodity and oil prices and the somewhat weaker euro will curb the resulting impact. Sentiment among consumers remains positive. The GfK consumer climate index is still at a high level, but, according to the latest figures, income prospects and the willingness to make major purchases have lost ground slightly. The same is true of the business climate in wholesale and retail, with the current business situation rated as slightly less positive. Taking all these indications into account, we have downwardly adjusted our forecast for private consumption expenditure for the current year by half a percentage point, down to 1.5 percent. State expenditure has only increased by 0.9 percent in real terms in the first half of the year, according to figures from the German Federal Statistical Office. The delayed formation of government after the federal elections is likely to have played a role here. For the second half of the year, we expect public spending to increase, so we are sticking to our previous forecast for state consumption expenditure of 1.5 percent following price adjustment. We expected investment activity to increase with significantly more momentum than recorded so far for the first half of the year. While this is not likely to be an indication that the investment cycle has come to an end, momentum is lower than it has been in past investment cycles. We no longer expect investment in plant and equipment to expand as much in the second half of the year, with an increase of only six percent likely. On the positive side, the financing conditions remain favourable and capacity utilisation in industry is high making investment to expand capacities here and there probable. Weighing on the negative side is the difficulty in finding the necessary additional personnel as well as the increasing uncertainties regarding possible barriers to trade. The main factor curbing construction investment is the capacity bottlenecks among construction companies. On account of the high demand for housing (residential construction), the good financial situation of the public budgets (public sector construction) and further upward corporate investment (commercial construction), the demand for construction investment continues to be solid. As the construction industry has managed to increase production still further in the course of the year so far, we have adjusted our forecast upwards slightly and now expect construction investment to increase by around three percent. Investment in other assets (software, research and development) only grew marginally in the first half of the year making the increase forecast by us exceedingly improbable. We now expect investment here to rise by only three percent.
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German economy keeps on growing | GDP rises just under two percent in first half of 2018 26/09/2018
In the first six months of the year, exports did not increase as much as expected at the beginning of the year. Growth in global trade also lost momentum in the second quarter of 2018. The trade tensions between China and the US, and the European Union and the US, are jeopardising the upward trend in global trade. On account of the distinct downward risk for our export predictions and the results of the first six months, we have downwardly revised our growth forecast for real exports to 3.5 percent. For imports, we now expect an increase of only four percent. All in all, we now forecast economic output to increase by two percent over the previous year after price adjustment.
BDI-forecast for 2017/18: Change in real economic output over the previous year in percent
2018
Federal Government 2018
European Commission 2018
2.2
2.0
2.4
2.3
1.7
1.5
-
-
-Private Consumption
1.8
1.5
1.9
1.8
-Public Consumption
1.6
1.5
1.8
1.6
2.9
4.0
3.8
3.2
- Machinery and Equipment
3.7
6.0
5.0
5.7
- Construction
2.9
3.0
2.8
-
- Other
1.3
3.0
4.2
-
Exports
4.6
3½
5.3
5.9
Imports
4.8
4.0
5.8
6.1
Net Exports, Economic Output
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.4
Actual figures 2017 GDP, real Consumption
Investment
BDI
Sources: Federal Statistical Office, Federal Government, European Commission (May 2018), own calculations
12
German economy keeps on growing | GDP rises just under two percent in first half of 2018 26/09/2018
Imprint Bundesverband der Deutschen Industrie e.V. (BDI) Breite Straße 29 10178 Berlin T: +49 30 2028-0 www.bdi.eu Author Thomas Hüne T: +49 30 2028-1592 t.huene@bdi.eu Editorial/Graphics Dr. Klaus Günter Deutsch T: +49 30 2028-1591 k.deutsch@bdi.eu Marta Gancarek T: +49 30 2028-1588 m.gancarek@bdi.eu
This Quarterly Report Germany is a translation based on „Quartalsbericht Deutschland – QIII 2018“, as of 26 September 2018.
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German economy keeps on growing | GDP rises just under two percent in first half of 2018 26/09/2018
Basic data for national accounts GDP (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted) Change over previous period in percent 2017 2016
2018
2017
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2.6
1.7
0.6
0.7
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.4
-Private Consumption
2.1
1.8
0.7
0.8
0.1
0.2
0.5
0.3
-Public Consumption
4.0
1.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.4
-0.3
0.6
3.5
2.9
2.0
1.3
0.4
0.3
1.4
0.5
-Machinery and Equipment
2.2
3.7
2.2
2.7
1.2
0.5
2.3
0.3
-Construction
3.8
2.9
2.5
0.7
-0.1
0.2
1.6
0.6
-Other
5.2
1.3
0.5
0.4
0.2
0.4
-0.5
0.3
Domestic Demand
3.0
2.0
0.5
0.8
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.9
Exports
2.3
4.6
2.3
1.1
1.2
1.7
-0.3
0.7
Imports
4.1
4.8
1.0
1.8
0.8
1.3
-0.2
1.7
Total
2.2
2.2
1.1
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.5
Consumption
Investment
Contribution to growth (in percentage points) Consumption
1.9
1.2
0.5
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
-Private Consumption
1.1
0.9
0.4
0.4
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.2
-Public Consumption
0.8
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.7
0.6
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.1
-Machinery and Equipment
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.0
-Construction
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.1
-Other
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Change in stocks and the like
0.2
0.1
-0.4
0.0
0.2
0.0
-0.1
0.4
Domestic Demand
2.7
1.9
0.4
0.7
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.8
Net exports
-0.5
0.3
0.7
-0.2
0.3
0.3
-0.1
-0.4
Investment
Source: Destatis
14