WORLD WITH MULTIPLE BLOCS | Globalization Scenarios
Scenario
WORLD WITH MULTIPLE BLOCS The EU asserts itself next to the US and China as the world’s third major bloc. Other blocs are possible, for example under Russia’s leadership.
STRONG EUROPE REFORMED MULTILATERALISM
WORLD WITH MULTIPLE BLOCS A sovereign EUROPE asserts itself as its own power center next to the US and CHINA (and other regional blocs?)
COLD PEACE
Globalization is not what it used to be; the world is becoming more regional. Yet the US, CHINA and EUROPE compete to reform global governance.
The West joins forces. The US, EUROPE and like-minded partners form a counterweight to CHINA’s sphere of influence.
US – CHINA DECOUPLING/ CONFLICT WORLD IN PERMANENT CRISIS
US-CHINA INTEGRATION/ COOPERATION
G2 The world is dominated by the US and CHINA. EUROPE is no longer a global actor.
The US and CHINA are in permanent conflict. EUROPE is crushed between the two superpowers.
WEAK EUROPE
DESCRIPTION
This scenario assumes that the world is divided into multiple dominant blocs. And while these power centers interact with each other, they are clearly demarcated from each other: The democracies in the US and Europe face off against autocratic China, where the Communist Party has a monopoly on power. These political systems compete aggressively against each other over which form of governance is more
POLITICAL SYSTEMS Open competition between the political systems of democracies and autocracies
effective, on the one hand, and over which can offer its citizens more prosperity, security and opportunities, on the other.
In the 2020s, through a great deal of close cooperation, the EU has managed to
establish itself as a meaningful player on the global stage, finding its own self-assured role between both superpowers. During what was a turbulent decade, the EU member states succeeded in maintaining and strengthening their unity. This show of strength has given the Union considerable self-confidence and earned it growing respect around the world. By closing ranks politically, the EU has gained relevance globally,
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