WORLD IN PERMANENT CRISIS | Globalization Scenarios
Scenario
REFORMED MULTILATERALISM Globalization is not what it used to be; the world is becoming more regional. Nevertheless, the US, China and Europe compete to reform global governance.
STRONG EUROPE REFORMED MULTILATERALISM
WORLD WITH MULTIPLE BLOCS A sovereign EUROPE asserts itself as its own power center next to the US and CHINA (and other regional blocs?)
COLD PEACE
Globalization is not what it used to be; the world is becoming more regional. Yet the US, CHINA and EUROPE compete to reform global governance.
The West joins forces. The US, EUROPE and like-minded partners form a counterweight to CHINA’s sphere of influence.
US – CHINA DECOUPLING/ CONFLICT WORLD IN PERMANENT CRISIS
US-CHINA INTEGRATION/ COOPERATION
G2 The world is dominated by the US and CHINA. EUROPE is no longer a global actor.
The US and CHINA are in permanent conflict. EUROPE is crushed between the two superpowers.
WEAK EUROPE
DESCRIPTION
In this scenario, much is reminiscent of the global order in the first decade and a half of the 21st century, even if the international balance of power and economic weightings have fundamentally shifted.
The democracies in Europe and the US coexist with China, autocratically led by
the Communist Party, in a mild, non-aggressive systemic conflict. All actors make an
POLITICAL SYSTEMS Democracies and autocracies coexist, there is moderate systemic conflict
effort to cooperate and to find solutions on a multilateral level. Yet their negotiations, in terms of both objectives and results, are less ambitious or all-encompassing than they once were. Many governments have difficulty gaining political support in their own country for the agreements concluded through multilateral channels.
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