Globalization Scenarios | G2
Scenario
G2 China and the US recognize the added value of working closely together and dominate the world. Europe plays an important supporting role.
STRONG EUROPE REFORMED MULTILATERALISM
WORLD WITH MULTIPLE BLOCS A sovereign EUROPE asserts itself as its own power center next to the US and CHINA (and other regional blocs?)
COLD PEACE
Globalization is not what it used to be; the world is becoming more regional. Yet the US, CHINA and EUROPE compete to reform global governance.
The West joins forces. The US, EUROPE and like-minded partners form a counterweight to CHINA’s sphere of influence.
US – CHINA DECOUPLING/ CONFLICT WORLD IN PERMANENT CRISIS
US-CHINA INTEGRATION/ COOPERATION
G2 The world is dominated by the US and CHINA. EUROPE is no longer a global actor.
The US and CHINA are in permanent conflict. EUROPE is crushed between the two superpowers.
WEAK EUROPE
DESCRIPTION
POLITICAL SYSTEMS Democracies and autarchies coexist peacefully
American democracy and Chinese autocracy co-exist largely in peace. Despite all their systemic differences, the superpowers recognize the potential offered by working closely together so they can, for the most part, shape the world as they like. Therefore, each makes political concessions to its rival, a move both portray at home as part of a larger success strategy. It is rare for either side to provoke the other, since neither wants to jeopardize their economic cooperation. The EU makes do following in the wake of both major powers, becoming the world’s undisputed third power, although it is less relevant as an independent political player.
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