Globalization Scenarios | INTRODUCTION
INTRODUCTION
The global economy is experiencing a period
China was considered, along with the question
of rapid upheaval. Technological advances and
of whether the two superpowers would gravitate
growing rivalries are tugging at the world’s power
towards confrontation or cooperation. On the
structures as major economic players engage in
other, consideration was given to the future role of
a geostrategic competition. The United States,
the European Union – as a potent shaper of world
China, Europe and other ambitious actors must
events or a pawn of the major powers.
align their economies to reflect the emerging realities. The Covid-19 pandemic, moreover, is
Two of the scenarios depict a world in which
giving this development both a unique dynamic
the EU is a forceful player – in one case, against
and an indefinite outcome. What the world order
the background of a revived multilateralism
will eventually look like remains completely
(Reformed Multilateralism); in the other, within
uncertain.
the shifting tensions caused by the superpowers taking a confrontative approach (World with
In light of the many possible contingencies, the
Multiple Blocs). A third scenario describes a world
Bertelsmann Stiftung, with support from the
in which China and the US engage in a protracted
Federation of German Industries (Bundesverband
conflict, with the EU caught in the middle (World
der Deutschen Industrie, BDI), organized a series
in Permanent Crisis). The possibility was also
of workshops at which various configurations of
discussed of both superpowers standing side by
future developments were discussed along with
side, dominating the globe as they develop shared
their impact on the German economy.
interests (G2). The fifth scenario (Cold Peace) was treated during the discussions as the continuation
In cooperation with the Fraunhofer Institute
of today’s status quo.
for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI) and representatives from business and politics, five
The participants used these models to consider
scenarios were developed on what the future of
in concrete terms what the individual scenarios
globalization might look like. The scenarios served
imply for the German and European economies,
as the basis for some 30 discussions involving over
and to develop informed strategies and longer-
70 participants from business organizations, trade
term responses that the business community
associations and political institutions. The key
can take. The focus here was on practical
questions were the impact the individual scenarios
considerations: How might German companies
would have on German companies, along with
react to a world that fragments into different
potential responses and strategic conclusions.
blocs, or one in which the US and China resist (at least in part) the trend towards globalization? How
The methodical development of the scenarios’
would German players and industries adjust to
qualitative analysis provided the basis for the
these new framework conditions?
discussions. The timeframe for the thought
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experiment focused on the year 2030. Two factors
The scenarios merely suggest events that might
were defined as particularly relevant. On the
occur; they do not provide definitive predictions
one hand, the relationship between the US and
of the future. They describe which happenings
