Position | Climate Policy | Energy, Industry, Transport, Buildings Climate Paths 2.0 study – Recommendations for action
Transformation path mobility until 2030
Transformation path mobility until 2030 -48 % reduction in emissions (2019 – 2030) €220 billion additional investments (until 2030)
Blending by 2030 > 22 % green fuels (H², PtL, biofuels) | > 3.3 million t PtL import
Switch to rail by 2030: + 40 billion passenger-kilometres; + 22 billion tonne-kilometres
Share of new registrations of battery-electric passenger cars 2030 < 90 % | stock < 14 million.
Maximum ramp-up of electromobility and ambitious blending of carbon neutral fuels The national climate targets require a reduction in CO₂ emissions in the transport sector to 85 million tonnes by 2030 and climate neutrality by 2045. The BDI study Climate Paths 2.0 outlines the extremely ambitious transformation path required for this: It leads to an accelerated market ramp-up of alternative drive systems with a particular focus on electromobility for passenger cars and commercial vehicles as well as power-based fuels (renewable fuels of non-biological origin, RFNBO) and advanced biofuels for the indispensable
climate protection contribution of the existing passenger car fleet. The prerequisites are the timely and ambitious expansion of refuelling, charging, transport and energy infrastructures and the provision of 100 percent renewable electricity for electromobility and RFNBO. Also, incentives must be created to ensure the market ramp-up of alternative drives and fuels. The marketable availability of RFNBO is also crucial for climate neutrality in air and maritime transport as well as the remaining non-electrified rail transport. The two levers – modal shift and increased efficiency – must remain to be pushed with uppermost ambition.
Transport: Drive change with greatest GHG reduction contribution Reduction of GHG-source emissions in the transport sector 2019 – 2045
Reduction in international air and maritime transport 2020 to 2045 Reduction from 2020 to 2030 Reduction from 2031 to 2045
Million tonnes of CO² equivalent
164
4
7
5
5
122
14 19
47
79
Reference path 70 96
2019
42
42
5*
21
85
Development of transport performance
Change of mode of transport
Efficient Drives
Drive change
Green fuels**
Reduction in years
Increase in road freight transport
From passenger car, truck and airplane to busses, rail and inland waterway vessels
Drive efficiency and smart transport management
BEV in passenger cars, BEV and FCV in trucks
PtL and biofuels in remaining vehicle fleet, air and maritime transport
Target path Reduction according to climate paths
In the reference path, too, a substantial drive change is expected by 2045 – but development will be slow
*In 2030 reduction of 21 Mt CO²e with the help of green fuels vis-à-vis 2019. But in 2045 5 Mt CO²e less savings than in 2030, as fewer green fuels will be used in national transport due to the change in drive. This results in a reduction of 16 Mt CO²e by green fuels in 2045 compared to 2019. ** H² in fuel cell drives included under drive change | Note: Source balance without emissions from electricity | Source: BCG-analysis
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