Exports much lower than expected | BDI downwardly adjusts GDP growth forecast for the year to just 2.5 percent 17/12/2021
Growth in real GDP in percent 12 10 8 6
2.7
4
1.1
1.1
2 0 -2 -4 -6
-4.6
-8 -10 -12 I
II
III
IV
I
2017
II
III
IV
2018
I
II
III
2019
IV
I
II
III
2020
IV
I
II
III
IV
2021
change over previous year quarter change over previous quarter change over previous year Source: Federal Statistical Office
The export of goods and services increased 5.5 percent in the third quarter 2021 following price adjustment. Goods exports increased 4.9 percent year on year and exported services grew by 8.2 percent. Among imports, imported goods rose 5.6 percent while imported services surged 20.8 percent, fuelled by the expanded opportunities to travel. Overall, imports grew 8.9 percent, strides ahead of exports, so that net exports brought GDP down by 0.9 percentage points in the third quarter. Foreign trade: trade with US picks up Although momentum has begun to tail off just recently, German exports increased by 33.5 billion euros or eleven percent in the third quarter 2021 compared to the same period last year to reach 337.4 billion euros (country-specific seasonally adjusted data is not available). Compared to the second quarter 2019, this represents an increase of two percent. The strongest growth, in absolute terms, was in trade with the US (up 4.91 billion euros or 18.8 percent) and with the Netherlands (up 4.10 billion euros or 19.6 percent). Among EU partner countries, exports to Italy, Austria and Poland expanded by more than two billion euros in each case. Exports to France recorded below-average growth of 7.7 percent, still a good 5.4 percent below pre-crisis levels. Despite the robust economic upturn in the United Kingdom, exports to the country were down by 1.06 billion euros or 6.1 percent. Compared to the second quarter 2019, exports decreased by as much as 3.11 billion euros or 15.9 percent. German imports also recorded a robust increase year on year in the third quarter 2021, rising 39.5 billion euros or 15.7 percent. The strongest growth in nominal terms was in trade with the Netherlands (up 5.21 billion euros or 25.2 percent), with China (up 4.79 billion euros or 16.1 percent) and Belgium (up 4.48 billion euros or 52.2 percent). The steep increase in imports from energy exporters, with imports from Russia up by 74.3 percent and Norway up by 140 percent, is partially due
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