Trend Forecasting

DEFINING TREND

‘Trend,’ is defined as a general direction of development and movement. Typically associated with ‘trend’ is the fashion industry. The term fashion means, “a style of consumer product or way of behaving that is temporarily adopted by a discernible proportion of members of a social group because that chosen style or behaviour is perceived to be socially appropriate for the time and situation.” (Kim, Fiore and Kim, 2011). This is something often confused with trends, ‘however a trend can be emotional, intellectual and even spiritual’ (Raymond, 2010), not just something which affects physical changes in appearance and culture.

“Forecasting is a creative and analytical process”

(Kim, Fiore and Kim, 2011)

TREND FORECASTING

Trend forecasting involves a continual creative way of thinking in order to predict the trends of upcoming seasons.

It involves a systematic process, ‘including information gathering, market research and consumer research and analysis’ (Kim, Fiore and Kim, 2011). For retailers, it is crucial to have accurate trend forecasting to meet their consumers’ needs in upcoming seasons; to predict a trend wrong would be to sacrifice company profit due to ‘zero sellers’ in their stock having to be reduced in price, to sell.

Different influences can impact future trends, being social, cultural, technological and economical. These forces can make it difficult for forecasters to predict new trends - especially when there are big changes happening. In order to aid a forecaster, theories like, ‘The Diffusion of Innovation’ founded by Everett M. Rogers, are utilised; the ‘Diffusion of Innovation Curve’ is a passage that forecasters identify when they are considering a future trend’s route through society.