Vascular Connections, August 2020—Review Edition

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Vascular Connections The Official Newspaper of the Vascular Annual Meeting

REVIEW EDITION

SOCIETY FOR VASCULAR SURGERY • AUGUST 2020 • SVS ONLINE

Unveiling an AI-driven risk stratification tool to attain better stroke prediction By Bryan Kay It’s one of the most intractable areas of focus in all of vascular disease, and the source of—inarguably, Brajesh K. Lal, MD, emphasizes—the most intensely studied vascular surgical procedure anywhere in the sphere of the specialty. And for some years, Lal has had the development of a more accurate method of risk assessment for this perennial vascular problem fixed firmly in his sights: carotid disease.

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ow, the Baltimore-based director of the University of Maryland’s Center for Vascular Diagnostics and the National Institutes of Health Vascular Imaging Core Facility may be a little closer to his target. Lal is speaking to Vascular Connections shortly after he delivered the interim findings of the CRISP (Carotid risk prediction consortium) trial during Scientific Session 9 at SVS ONLINE on July 2. Lal and colleagues had unveiled data on the novel application of artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms to more successfully risk stratify those with carotid atherosclerosis. They demonstrated, he told the digital conference, that a composite of carotid plaque geometry and tissue composition, patient demographics, and clinical information “has a better predictive performance for major adverse neurological events [like stroke] than the traditionally utilized degree of stenosis alone.” The company behind the AI, Bostonbased Elucid Bio, proudly announced ahead of Lal’s SVS ONLINE presentation that the technology in question, called vascuCAP, had shown a more than 70%

The CRISP trial: Novel AI tech and carotid stenosis risk The interim results of the study could be a step toward revolutionizing stroke risk assessment

Brajesh K. Lal

“We all as clinicians know we have to move beyond percent stenosis. It’s not effective, it’s not sensitive and it’s not specific” BRAJESH K. LAL

n C arotid stenosis is one of the most intensely studied vascular disease entities. n C urrent stroke risk assessment for patients with carotid atherosclerosis relies primarily on assessing the degree of stenosis. n A composite, including elements like carotid plaque geometry and clinical information, has better predictive performance than degree of stenosis alone. n Using the vascuCap-powered predictive model on asymptomatic patients could help identify those at a high risk for future major adverse neurological events.

improvement in accuracy of stroke prediction as compared to stenosis-based guidelines over a six-year time period. But in order to get to the heart of Lal’s current risk prediction quest, he first takes Vascular Connections on a little history tour of carotid disease. Those studies to which he draws reference—beginning in the 1970s and continuing unabated through today— were united in their search for the best treatment for asymptomatic carotid stenosis patients. And all of them indicate that “if you take 100 people with asymptomatic carotid stenosis and perform carotid endarterectomy [CEA], and randomize 100 people with asymptomatic carotid disease and give them the best available medical therapy,” the patients who received a CEA did a little better, Lal says. Yet, the challenge remains that, even among those who did not undergo surgery, stroke rates were “not tremendously high.” If those 100 patients are followed, about two per year suffer a stroke. “What the clinical standard of care is—that if you select patients based on the degree of stenosis—and the only clinical risk stratification tool across the world is percentage stenosis, selecting patients based on this only lets you identify a subgroup of patients where 2% of them are going to develop a stroke. When you think about it, it’s not a very sensitive or specific risk stratification tool. It’s the best we have.” The bottom line: Percentage stenosis is not the ideal way to risk stratify patients in order to identify those who will have a stroke. The research group worked across four centers, and recently added a fifth. “We were able to collect a reasonably large cohort of patients,” Lal says. “It’s a very unique cohort—asymptomatic carotid stenosis at baseline—and at least

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SVS ONLINE closing act: The coming changes set to shape vascular surgery future By Beth Bales What lies in store for vascular surgery as the specialty peers down the road into its future? Many changes—both possible and confirmed—according to leading specialists who took part in the final SVS ONLINE session, “Assuring quality in vascular surgical care: The future of center, program and surgeon accreditation,” held July 2. SOCIETY FOR VASCULAR SURGERY (SVS) president Ronald L. Dalman, MD, and program chair Matthew Eagleton, MD, moderated the multi-part session, which looked into the future of vascular surgery, not with a crystal ball, but with data, trends and developments in the works. Here are some of the issues explored. First up: setting the standard for quality and appropriateness, verification and quality improvement. Immediate past president Kim Hodgson, MD, kicked off the session discussing the vital importance for vascular surgery to model the way in delivering quality, appropriate care. Hodgson presented data demonstrating practitioners across specialties are performing certain vascular procedures at levels far outside the norm as established by practice guidelines and Vascular Quality Initiative (VQI) data. He noted that among specialties, vascular surgeons make up the smallest percentage of this cohort, but as long as vascular surgeons are represented, the specialty must recognize it has a problem.

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