2015 Bismarck-Mandan Economic Outlook

2 015 B i s m a r c k - M a n d a n

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Energy

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Agriculture

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Retail

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Manufacturing

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State Revenue

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Health Care

INTRODUCTION Bismarck-Mandan, North Dakota.

Can you think of a better place in America? In reviewing the results of this year’s economic survey, it is apparent business is doing well.

While everyone has an eye on lower oil prices, the optimism about the future remains strong.

Annette Behm Caldwell and her husband Dusty own Open Road Honda in Mandan. During the 2008 downturn, I asked Annette how their small business was coping. She said, “We view the economy as a running river. While it is down, we can better see the rocks impeding our progress and make corrections. When the current returns, it will be much smoother sailing.”

Annette’s response is representative of North Dakota. Instead of panicking about lower oil prices, business is retooling, supporting investment in infrastructure, training workforce and preparing for the inevitable upturn in a commodity market.

Once again, the grit and determination embedded in the people of an agriculture state allow us to weather a storm and remain optimistic.

As you review this year’s economic outlook, we want to extend our thanks to the many contributors. To gain an accurate sense of the various industries, the Chamber asked business leaders to provide us with their insights. We hope you find it valuable as you think about the future of your business and our community.

Cordially,

TABLE OF CONTENTS 4 u Health Care

Dr. Craig Lambrecht, Sanford Health

6 u State Revenue Ryan Rauschenberger, North Dakota Tax Commissioner

8 u Retail

Joe Duperre, Jr., Kirkwood Mall

10 u Agriculture

Eric Bartsch, United Pulse Trading

12 u Energy

Tessa Sandstrom, North Dakota Petroleum Council

14 u Manufacturing Tony Richards, Dakota MEP

16 u Survey Results

Kelvin Hullet, President Bismarck-Mandan Chamber of Commerce

ECONOMIC

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HEALTH CARE

By Dr. Craig Lambrecht, CEO, Sanford Health

“

With all the change our industry faces, the biggest challenge continues to be one familiar to all business in the region – maintaining an adequate and skilled work force.

Our top priority is retaining our current employees while working with the Chamber and leaders in all industries to continue to attract workers to Bismarck-Mandan.

”

As it is in most industries, change remains the one constant in health care, and, as a health care provider, Sanford Health must continuously evolve and position itself. The coming years promise to bring more changes to health care than in any other period in modern history.

In the near future, the entire paradigm of health care could shift – with health systems’ financial viability being tied to the quality of care they provide rather than the quantity. With this move, the emphasis for health care providers will be to prevent and cure disease by keeping people healthy rather than treating singular, episodic diagnoses. This effort will combine preventive measures, wellness, behavioral health and chronic disease management. It includes connecting all points of patients’ care, identifying barriers to providing care and working with patients and community partners to overcome those barriers. As a fully integrated health system comprised of primary care physicians, specialists, a medical center and long-term care facilities, Sanford Health is uniquely positioned to lead in this new environment.

On a micro-level, Sanford has seen an increase in volumes and demands for our services over the past several years as Bismarck-Mandan and all of western North Dakota have grown. We have worked hard to increase our access to primary care providers, so patients can receive the proper care at the proper location and avoid costly and unnecessary trips to the emergency department. We implemented Same Day at Sanford, which is a promise to deliver same-day primary care, throughout our primary care clinics in Bismarck-Mandan and Dickinson. At the same time, we are reaching out to health care providers around the region – many of which have seen dramatic increases in demand – to see if we can partner together to improve health care. Along those lines, we are exploring increasing our use of electronic technology to provide quality, affordable health care in rural, underserved areas.

With all the change our industry faces, the biggest challenge continues to be one familiar to all business in the region – maintaining an adequate and skilled work force. Our top priority is retaining our current employees while working with the Chamber and leaders in all industries to continue to attract workers to Bismarck-Mandan. We must engage with our universities and two-year colleges and partner together to develop skilled students who want to remain in our communities and be the future leaders, while also looking outside the state to encourage professionals to pursue the opportunities here present nowhere else in the country.

One thing that won’t change is Sanford’s commitment to the communities it serves. We will continue to be a strong partner in Bismarck-Mandan and invest back into the community to keep it the state’s premier area. We are eager to break ground on the Family Wellness project, our joint venture with the Missouri Valley Family YMCA that will bring a state-of-the-art workout facility and community gathering location to Mandan. We also are eager to continue to grow with Bismarck-Mandan, and we are honored so many trust in us to provide them with their health care.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK u 4

ENERGY

and hard work create success. While you’re working to grow your business, we’re working to meet your energy needs. Whether you’re a farmer or rancher

in the field, a small business on Main Street or an energy or technology firm on the plains, we’re here for you. We work with your local electric cooperative to help you succeed by providing you—our co-op members—with affordable, reliable electricity.

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STATE REVENUE

By Ryan Rauschenberger, North Dakota Tax Commissioner

“

The overall economic outlook remains very positive for North Dakota. Job Service North Dakota reports that in January, a time when oil prices were at the lowest point in six years, there were nearly 20,000 online postings for available positions.

”

No matter where you live in North Dakota, or even across the country, you are probably aware of the economic boom in western North Dakota. Advancements in drilling technology pioneered in the Bakken shale field have significantly changed the outlook for U.S. domestic crude oil production. In North Dakota, the growth in oil production has been remarkable. In 2004, oil production in the state was on the decline and average daily production was a little over 85,000 barrels per day. In 2014, oil production in the state grew to an average of 1.1 million barrels per day.

Oil production is labor intensive. The result of this increase in production has been unprecedented growth in jobs and population. Although the impact of oil has been centered in the west, it has also rippled across the state. For the past ten years the pace of growth has been hectic as communities and the state rush to build infrastructure. Communities have struggled to add schools and to expand water systems, streets and sewage systems. State and county governments have undertaken an incredible number of construction projects as transportation routes are rebuilt and redesigned to accommodate volumes and loads never seen before. In the midst of such frenetic growth, it was hard to imagine a slowdown…until oil prices dropped by nearly 50 percent in the span of just a few months. The price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, an international benchmark, fell from $102 in July 2014 to $47 in January 2015.

Such a drastic change in price has a correspondingly significant change on the economic viability of drilling operations. The number of drilling rigs operating in the state has declined along with the price of oil. On average, 190 rigs were operating during each month of 2014. By mid-February that number had declined by one-third to 130 rigs and could decline further. Fewer drilling rigs mean fewer wells will be drilled. Fewer wells drilled means there will be fewer purchases of drilling inputs.

For each well that is not completed, royalty payments will not be made to mineral owners.

Each drilling rig that is not operating means fewer direct and indirect jobs.

Fortunately, no one is predicting that the oil boom will turn into a bust in the state…merely a temporary slowdown in activity in response to a price decline. State policy makers, executive branch agencies and Moody’s Analytics (the economic forecasting consultant utilized by the state) will work together to develop a revenue forecast for the state’s upcoming biennial budget. That process will be completed in mid-March to allow the legislature time to consider the forecast and make appropriate budget decisions. At this point, oil production is expected to continue relatively unchanged despite the slowdown in drilling activity. The price forecast will be a critical component of the new revenue forecast as incentives provided in law will automatically lower oil extraction tax rates if prices remain low for an extended period. However, the most recent analysis by Moody’s Analytics predicts that by this time next year, WTI will average $80 per barrel. If this holds true, drilling activity will rebound along with price.

The overall economic outlook remains very positive for North Dakota. Job Service North Dakota reports that in January, a time when oil prices were at the lowest point in six years, there were nearly 20,000 online postings for available positions. This is an increase of over 16 percent from January 2014. With the lowest unemployment rate in the nation of only 2.8 percent, and a growing list of unfilled jobs, a moderate slowdown in oil activity may have little overall economic impact on North Dakota, especially if prices rebound as predicted and the slowdown is short-lived.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK u 6

RETAIL

By Joe Duperre, Jr., General Manager, Kirkwood Mall

“

The 2015 economic forecast recently issued by the National Retail Federation projects that retail sales (excluding automobiles, gas stations and restaurants) will increase 4.1 percent.

”

Kirkwood Mall is the second largest regional shopping center in North Dakota. The thriving center is anchored by Herberger’s, I. Keating Furniture World, JCPenney, Scheels and Target. Just five minutes from the Bismarck Airport, the mall enjoys an enviable location in the Central Business District of North Dakota’s capital. The area’s booming economy is reflected in the robust traffic and sales activity at the mall.

The 2015 economic forecast recently issued by the National Retail Federation projects that retail sales (excluding automobiles, gas stations and restaurants) will increase 4.1 percent. This is an impressive figure, representing over half a point of the growth seen in 2014. The 4.1 percent projection would mark the biggest annual growth since 2011 when retails sales for the year increased 5.1 percent.* Kirkwood Mall has every confidence its performance will mirror that of the national forecast.

Originally built in 1971, the mall was renovated in 2002 and continues to refresh its stellar collection of offerings whenever opportunities are presented. The center enjoys steady growth, as evidenced when sales per square foot in 2012** at the center increased more than 15% to over $409 per square foot. The mall offers both near- and long-term growth potential with low in-place occupancy cost as well as lease-up opportunities. The mall’s primary trade area is projected to grow to 124,685 in 2016 with an average household income of $68,000+.

Kirkwood Mall continues to attract shoppers with a diverse collection of stores. Young adults, teens, and ‘tweens flock to the center to stay on trend with apparel from American Eagle Outfitters, Journeys, The Buckle, SHOE DEPT. ENCORE and Victoria’s Secret to name a few. Families count on Kirkwood Mall to deliver favorite stores which offer current styles at value prices. For example, The Children’s Place, Famous Footwear, Payless ShoeSource and Justice are ideal for outfitting the kids at the right prices. Herberger’s, JCPenney and Target carry a huge variety of merchandise covering everything from household goods to toys, baby supplies, pet food, pharmacy and more. Hungry shoppers now have more choices than ever at the mall, with options ranging from Arby’s to Grand China, Bob’s Pizza Plus, Grizzly’s Grill N’ Saloon, Subway and Gramma Ginna’s. Complementing the variety of retail and dining offerings, Kirkwood Mall also delivers several professional services for shoppers. Regis and SILO Salons are ‘go to’ places for the most up to date hair styling techniques, and manicures and pedicure services abound. Shoppers also have access to banking at Kirkwood Bank & Trust and receiving healthcare at the Mid Dakota Clinic and Pediatrics on the mall’s property.

“Kirkwood Mall is a landmark in Bismarck, a popular destination for families to shop, dine and enjoy time together,” says Joe Duperre, the shopping center’s general manager. “We are privileged to serve this thriving, family-friendly community and look forward to doing so for many years to come.

Kirkwood Mall is located near Bismarck Expressway and 7th Street with direct access to I-94. The mall is home to more than 85 specialty retailers including American Eagle Outfitters, Bath & Body Works, Buckle, Chico’s, Eddie Bauer, SHOE DEPT. ENCORE, francesca’s, Justice, maurices, rue21, The Children’s Place, Torrid, Vanity, Victoria’s Secret and Yankee Candle Company. The center is also adjacent to numerous hotels, including Fairfield Inn, Expressway Inn and Suites and Best Western Ramkota. Surrounding restaurants include Ground Round, Applebee’s, Famous Dave’s and the Bismarck Event Center. *Source: National Retail Federation. **Updated data available in April with the release of the 2014 Annual Report

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK u 8

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AGRICULTURE

By Eric Bartsch, General Manager, United Pulse Trading

“

Today, agriculture represents more then 25 percent of the total state economy with over $7.3 billion on cash receipts.

”

It is no secret that the North Dakota economy in the past 5-7 years has been a nationwide topic due to the impact of the growing oil industry in western North Dakota. The extraction of oil has had a major impact in our state and we have benefited in many ways economically, but regardless of the growth in the energy industry, Agriculture continues to be the most consistent and major component of the state’s economy. It appears at times that the general public forgets the impact agriculture has on North Dakota economy and the global food supply.

Today, agriculture represents more then 25 percent of the total state economy with over $7.3 billion on cash receipts. North Dakota remains the nation’s leader in several major agriculture commodities such as spring wheat, durum wheat, barley, sunflowers, dry edible beans, flax, canola and honey. In addition to the fore mentioned products, North Dakota is also major producer of corn, soybeans, peas, lentils and livestock.

North Dakota agriculture continues to expand its presence and impact on the global trade map. In 2013, North Dakota exported $4.091 billion in agriculture commodities, which is a 300 percent increase over the $1.073 billion we exported in 2000. Groups such as the North Dakota Trade Office have been key for our state in helping North Dakota companies reach globally and exporting our commodities. Ultimately the increased trade brings back value to North Dakota producers and the state’s economy.

To continue our upward trends in agriculture production and exports, freight continues to be one of the major hurdles North Dakota has to deal with in order to foster the continued growth in the agriculture industry. Moving product from the farm to the fork has been a major hurdle the past several years for North Dakota producers and processors. Reports from the Surface Transportation Board on December 20th indicated that major rail lines were anywhere from 14 to 27 days late with car deliveries, on average. These delays have an impact on the industry causing millions of dollars in lost opportunity. As the agriculture industry continues to grow and develop, there more opportunities to add value to our goods locally and the increased pressure for higher quality food safety standards, the need for diverse logistical infrastructure will remain a major topic for our industry. In order to continue keeping pace with changing agriculture and food safety standards it will be key for North Dakota to make an investment in containerized movement of agriculture goods from the state.

Economical containerized movement is an area that has been a continued focus from several state agencies and agriculture organizations around the state.

The diversity of North Dakota agriculture industry has brought decades of investment in North Dakota ranging from finished food production to logistical infrastructure. The investment in agriculture continues in North Dakota because of the production diversity and business opportunities that exist in the state. As companies continue expanding their market reach and production capacity, the future is bright for North Dakota Agriculture.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK u 10

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ENERGY

By Tessa Sandstrom, Director of Communications, North Dakota Petroleum Council

“

Since 2005, the industry’s economic impacts have grown 750 percent from just $4 billion to $43 billion in 2013.

This growth has supported tens of thousands of jobs and positively impacted industries beyond energy.

”

For the past decade, the oil and gas industry has continually grown to make up a major part of North Dakota’s strong economy. Since 2005, the industry’s economic impacts have grown 750 percent from just $4 billion to $43 billion in 2013. This growth has supported tens of thousands of jobs and positively impacted industries beyond energy.

In fact, the largest recipient of the industry’s business growth in 2013 was retail trade, taking in $11.3 billion of the $43 billion total. Households, or personal income, saw the second largest impact at $9.3 billion, and the Finance, Insurance and Real Estate industry ($4.5 billion) overtook the government ($4.4 billion), which was the third-largest beneficiary in 2011. More than six other industries in North Dakota also benefited from oil and gas development. Furthermore, the industry supported more than 80,000 direct and indirect jobs for that year.

Of course, the economics of oil and gas are tied very closely to commodity prices. Despite record production levels in 2014, oil prices did begin to slip toward the end of the year and into 2015, signaling a slowdown in rig and completions activities. This, in turn, is sure to lead to a slowdown in the economic growth that the state has seen from this sector.

Despite that, North Dakota is expected to produce more than 1 million barrels a day for the foreseeable future, and extraction and production activities did account for nearly 36 percent of those economic contributions in 2013. Any growth we do see, however, will be far less dramatic, and we must be careful to not further hinder these positive economic impacts through onerous or unnecessary regulation.

The positive side of declining oil prices means a more steady pace of activity, which will allow cities and counties to catch up and build crucial infrastructure, including roads, housing, utilities and other services. We do not see these needs diminishing. The Bakken is a world-class resource and everyone – including OPEC – knows that that resource is here. We anticipate that despite this price correction and any others that may follow, the Bakken will remain a 25 to 40 year oil play that will continue to contribute to economic growth, job creation and stronger national energy security.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK u 12

MANUFACTURING

By Tony Richards, CEO, Dakota MEP

“

It is predicted that one half of the technology we will be using in the next five to seven years has yet to be invented, and that the pace of technology will only increase and drive production and customer demands to new levels.

”

Today’s North Dakota manufacturers are under constant pressure to cut costs and operate more efficiently. With global competition and escalating operating costs, North Dakota manufacturers must explore every option for increasing profits while providing a safe and competitive product for the marketplace.

The impact of North Dakota manufactures is felt locally, nationally and globally, and the role of North Dakota manufactures is only increasing and will continue to serve a critical role within all areas for years to come.

On a state level, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, in 2012 manufacturing provided: • 6.6 percent of the total state output • Employed 5.7 percent of the workforce or approximately 25,500 workers • Produced over $3 billion dollars per year • Manufacturing accounted for 13.9 percent of all North Dakota jobs • Small business manufacturing comprised 85.4 percent of North Dakota’s 1,731 exporters Nationally and globally, according to the US Department of Commerce, in 2013, North Dakota trade statistics for manufacturing: • Accounted for 63.3 percent of all ND exports • Manufactured goods exports accounted for $2.4 billion dollars • Average more than $715,000 in exports per manufacturer • Accounted for 35 percent of total state exports • 2009-2013 the national growth average in trade was 50.4 percent In North Dakota during this same time period, we averaged 58.5 percent.

Like many industries, as manufacturing looks to the future there are three main areas that the overall industry must address; The first is what will the future workforce look like and where will it come from? How do we position ourselves today to be an attractive industry for the necessary skilled labor force of tomorrow? Who are we training within our current pool of workers to take over the required tasks to effectively compete and survive in a global environment?

The second area is technology. It is predicted that one half of the technology we will be using in the next five to seven years has yet to be invented, and that the pace of technology will only increase and drive production and customer demands to new levels.

North Dakota manufacturing continues to focus on developing the necessary skills and tools so that we continue to be in the forefront of innovation within technology.

The third area is leadership and people development. Without the proper training and resources within leadership, the organization will falter and collapse. The manufacturers within North Dakota are dedicated to providing the support for strong, capable leadership that can effectively run the organization today, while providing the strategic visioning to successfully compete within the global marketplace.

In conclusion, The economic impacts that North Dakota manufactures have on this state, nationally, and globally are significant, and will continue to grow over the years. It is only through the continued dedication and professionalism of our people that will allow all of our manufacturing base to remain competitive on all levels both today, and for years to come.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK u 14

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SURVEY RESULTS WHO IS YOUR PRIMARY TARGET MARKET? Bismarck-Mandan

44.00%

North Dakota Midwest

34.22% 11.56%

Nationwide

9.78%

International

.44% 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

ON AVERAGE, HOW MANY FULL-TIME EQUIVALENT EMPLOYEES DO YOU HAVE? 9.38%

22.77% 1-4

16.52%

5-19 20-49 50-99

5.80%

100-499 500+ 18.30%

27.23%

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK u 16

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SURVEY RESULTS WHAT IS YOUR BUSINESS CLASSIFICATION?

BY WHAT PERCENTAGE DO YOU ANTICIPATE YOUR EXPENSES TO CHANGE FROM 2014 TO 2015?

100

1.54%

1.54% 3.85% 3.85%

80

36.92%

6.92% 6.92%

60 46.88% 34.82%

40

20

18.30% 38.46%

0

Business to Business

Business to Consumer

Both + 1-3%

+ 6-9%

≤ +16%

- 1-3%

+ 4-6%

+ 10-15%

No Change

- 4-6%

OVERALL, HOW WOULD YOU COMPARE YOUR ORGANIZATION’S EXPECTED RESULTS TO ACTUAL PERFORMANCE IN 2014?

Exceeded Expectations

30.50%

Met Expectations

53.19%

Performed Below Expectations

16.31% 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK u 18

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SURVEY RESULTS IS YOUR BUSINESS EXPERIENCING DIFFICULTY IN ATTRACTING AND HIRING QUALIFIED WORKERS? 29.01%

YES NO 70.99%

WHAT FACTORS ARE MOST LIKELY TO ADVERSELY AFFECT YOUR BUSINESS IN THE NEXT YEAR? Attracting and Retaining Qualified Employees

67.80% 61.10%

Increasing Competition Increasing Raw Material Costs

46.50% 50.00%

Increasing Regulations Difficulty Providing Health Insurance for Employees

43.70% 35.10%

Increasing Transportation Costs Challenges in Acquiring Financing

28.70%

Other

27.10% 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK u 20

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SURVEY RESULTS DO YOU EXPECT TO PERFORM BETTER OR WORSE IN 2015 COMPARED TO 2014?

DO YOU THINK THE BISMARCK-MANDAN ECONOMY WILL PERFORM BETTER OR WORSE IN 2015 COMPARED TO 2014?

80

60

63.78% 60 40

39.20% 33.60% 27.20%

40

22.05% 20

0

20

14.17%

0

Better

Worse

No Change

Better

Worse

No Change

DO YOU THINK THE NATIONAL ECONOMY WILL PREFORM BETTER OR WORSE IN 2015 COMPARED TO 2014?

Better

50.40%

Worse

26.40%

No Change

23.20% 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK u 22

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