INTERNATIONAL SECURITY Invasion of Ukraine: Implications for New Zealand
In a time of increased strategic competition, writes Wayne Mapp, New Zealand should be militarily prepared, both for our own protection and to be viewed as a credible partner among our friends and partners.
Hon Dr Wayne Mapp QSO was New Zealand’s Minister of Defence and Minister of Science and Innovation from 2008 to 2011.
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When I wrote this, the Russian invasion of Ukraine was unfolding. Putin’s expressed war aims, to demilitarise and to de-nazify Ukraine, requires Russia to completely occupy Ukraine or for Ukraine to surrender. After a week of war, it was not obvious that Putin would be able to succeed in his war aims. The scale of the attack has not been seen in Europe since World War Two. This is also a reflection of Putin’s war aims. He intends, as much as possible, to restore the post-World War Two settlement. To do so means subduing the former Soviet republics, by force if necessary. However, Putin knows that he cannot reestablish
the buffer that was once afforded by the Warsaw Pact. The NATO security guarantee ensures that NATO countries are pretty much immune from attack by Russia. Of course, the guarantee does not extend to non-NATO countries, as the invasion of Ukraine has amply demonstrated. The absence of the NATO security guarantee to Ukraine means that Putin will do his utmost to rebuild the former Soviet Union. Perhaps not as a single state, but with the great majority of 15 nations that made up the USSR being held to owe their fealty to Russia. Clearly Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, being members of NATO, won’t be part of this process.
Line of Defence
