The Real Estate Report- Santa Cruz County - April.May 2016

Local Market Trends

Santa Cruz County

April/May 2016

Brandi Jones David Lyng Real Estate 2170 41st Avenue Capitola, CA 95010

(831) 588-5145 bjones@davidlyng.com http://www.brandijones.com CalBRE #01385191

The Real Estate Report Trends at a Glance

Home Prices Up to Begin Year After dipping below $700,000 in January, the median price for single-family, re-sale homes jumped in February and March, finishing the quarter at $785,000. That’s the highest the median price has been since November 2005.

• Home sales up by 47.6% to 121 from 82.

• Total inventory* increased 17.0% to 338 from 289.

• Sales price vs. list price ratio increased by 1.8% to

The sales price to list price ratio also went back over 100% for the first time since last August.

• The average days on market dropped by 36.7% to

The median price has been higher than the year before every month but three since July 2012.

MARCH SALES STATISTICS

• The average home sales price fell by 2.1% to $933,854 from $954,296.

100.4% from 98.6%.

41 from 65.

CONDOMINIUMS Year-Over-Year • Median condo prices increased by 10.0% yearover-year to $505,000 from $459,000.

SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES Year-Over-Year • Median home prices increased by 5.3% year-overyear to $785,000 from $745,500.

• The average condo sales price rose by 12.1% yearover-year to $517,117 from $461,164.

• Condo sales rose by 7.7% year-over-year to 42 from 39.

• The average home sales price rose by 16.1% yearover-year to $933,854 from $804,512.

• Total inventory* fell 56.1% year-over-year to 87

(Single-family Homes) Mar 16 Feb 16 Median Price: $785,000 $757,500 Av erage Price: $933,854 $954,296 Units Sold: 121 82 Pending Sales: 79 78 Activ e Listings: 259 211 Sale/List Price Ratio: 100.4% 98.6% Day s on Market: 41 65 Day s of Inv entory : 64 72 (Tow nhomes/Condos) Mar 16 Feb 16 Median Price: $505,000 $495,000 Av erage Price: $517,117 $539,885 Home Sales: 42 29 Pending Sales: 23 22 Activ e Listings: 64 54 SP/LP Ratio 99.7% 99.2% Day s on Market: 28 65 Day s of Inv entory : 46 52

Mar 15 $745,500 $804,512 133 208 349 100.7% 41 79 Mar 15 $459,000 $461,164 39 56 142 100.1% 52 109

from 198.

• Home sales fell by 9% year-over-year to 121 from

• Sales price vs. list price ratio fell by 0.4% year-

• Sales price vs. list price ratio increased by 0.5% to 133. over-year to 99.7% from 100.1%.

99.7% from 99.2%.

• Total inventory* fell 39.3% year-over-year to 338 • The average days on market fell by 46.3% year• The average days on market dropped by 56.7% to from 557. over-year to 28 from 52.

28 from 65.

• Sales price vs. list price ratio fell by 0.3% year- Month-Over-Month over-year to 100.4% from 100.7%.

• Median condo prices improved by 2.0% to * Total inventory is active listings plus contingent or pending • The average days on market rose by 0.5% yearlistings. Active listings do not include contingent listings. $505,000 from $495,000. over-year to 41 from 41.

• The average condo sales price fell by 4.2% to Month-Over-Month $517,117 from $539,885.

• Median home prices improved by 3.6% to $785,000 • Condo sales up by 44.8% to 42 from 29. from $757,500.

• Total inventory* increased 14.5% to 87 from 76.

Santa Cruz County Homes: Momentum 60.0 40.0

_____________________ VISIT

20.0

http://www.brandijones.com

0.0 0MM J S N 0MM J S N 1MM J S N 1MM J S N 1MM J S N 1MM J S N 1MM J S N 1MM J S N 1M -20.0 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 -40.0 -60.0 Median Price

Sales

Pending

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for a free on-line market analysis of your property. You can also perform your own personal search of properties for sale.

Brandi Jones | bjones@davidlyng.com | (831) 588-5145 | http://www.brandijones.com

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Local Market Trends

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Santa Cruz County

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April/May 2016

Mortgage Rate Outlook YELLEN TALKS DOWN RATES

30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates

April 1, 2016 -- Apparently wary financial markets took the Fed's most recent message to heart this week, as Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen expounded on the reasons why the Fed is likely to keep rates down for a longer period of time.

01-16 07-15 01-15 07-14 01-14

While reiterating that the Fed will make policy choices based upon inbound economic data, she made it fairly clear that recent global risks to economic growth bear consideration, intimating that the Fed is in a better position to address too-rapid growth and inflation than to manage a situation where growth has faltered. As such, it's better to err on the side of caution, leaving rates lower for longer.

07-13 01-13 07-12 01-12 07-11 01-11 07-10 01-10

Low interest rates help to spur economic activity by encouraging (among other things) borrowing by businesses to invest in expanding operations. With domestic economic growth yet fairly soft and inflation still below the Fed's 2 percent limit, the Fed has plenty of space to be patient in lifting rates toward more normal levels. Current expectations are that the Fed will lift the federal funds target rate twice this year, with the next change probably still months away from happening. For would be homebuyers, this is good news: Provided there is housing inven-

07-09 01-09 07-08 01-08 07-07 01-07 07-06 01-06 3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

The chart above shows the National monthly average for 30-year fixed rate mortgages as compiled by HSH.com. The average includes mortgages of all sizes, including conforming, "expanded conforming," and jumbo.

tory available to buy, low mortgage rates should help promote a solid spring homebuying season.

HSH.com's broad-market mortgage tracker -- our weekly Fixed-Rate Mortgage Indicator (FRMI) -found that the overall average rate for 30-year fixedrate mortgages eased by two basis points (.02 percent), slipping back to an average 3.78 percent. The FRMI's 15-year companion found a little less space to fall, with this week's average trimming just a single basis point off of last week's tally to ease to an average rate of 3.16 percent. Popular with first-time homebuyers, rates on fully-insured FHA-backed 30year FRMs remain considerably below their Fannie and Freddie counterparts and declined more than they did, falling by a five basis points to land at an average interest rate of 3.59 percent. Meanwhile, the overall 5/1 Hybrid ARM continued to edge closer to the 3 percent mark, easing by one one-hundredth of one percent to land at 3.01 percent for the week. At present, all rates remain closer to 2016 lows than highs as we begin the second quarter of the year.

Santa Cruz County Homes - Median, Average & Sales (3-month moving average—prices in $000's) $1,000 $900 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100

250 200 150 100 50 0MM J S N 1MM J S N 1MM J S N 1MM J S N 1MM J S N 1MM J S N 1MM J S N 1M 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

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Š 2016 rereport.com

Santa Cruz County - March 2016 Single-Family Homes

Brandi Jones bjones@davidlyng.com (831) 588-5145

Cities SZC Aptos Boulder Creek Capitola Felton Soquel Scotts Valley Santa Cruz Watsonville

Prices Median Average Sales Pend Inv DOI SP/LP $ 785,000 $ 933,854 121 79 259 64 100.4% $ 829,000 $ 946,161 20 8 37 55 98.6% $ 422,500 $ 420,000 4 6 18 135 100.2% $ 1,545,000 $ 2,592,000 4 3 6 45 90.9% $ 650,000 $ 593,182 11 8 14 38 101.4% $ 765,000 $ 823,750 4 2 8 60 102.2% $ 1,050,000 $ 1,110,820 9 7 28 93 100.6% $ 824,500 $ 1,040,040 44 23 69 47 102.1% $ 429,950 $ 474,939 18 13 54 90 100.4%

% Change from Year Before Prices Med Ave -7.7% 1.5% -5.3% -3.0% 103.0% 231.6% 103.0% 231.6% n/a n/a -17.7% -9.0% 1.1% 4.9% 2.7% 15.0% 0.0% 1.5%

Sales -15.5% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% n/a -50.0% 12.5% -4.3% -10.0%

Pend' -12.6% -69.2% -25.0% -25.0% n/a -85.7% -46.2% -23.3% -38.1%

Inven -14.6% -22.9% -62.5% -62.5% -88.9% -38.5% 33.3% -17.9% 63.6%

Local Market Trends

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Santa Cruz County

April/May 2016

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3 Brandi Jones bjones@davidlyng.com (831) 588-5145

Santa Cruz County Homes: Year-Over-Year Median Price Change 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% 0MM J S N 1MM J S N 1MM J S N 1MM J S N 1MM J S N 1MM J S N 1MM J S N 1M -20.0% 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 -40.0% -60.0% © 2016 rereport.com

Santa Cruz County Townhomes:

Yea r-Over-Year Median Pri ce Change

100.0% 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% -20.0% -40.0% -60.0%

0MM J S N 1MM J S N 1MM J S N 1MM J S N 1MM J S N 1MM J S N 1MM J S N 1M 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

-80.0% © 2016 rereport.com

Santa Cruz County Condos - Median, Average & Sales (3-month moving average—prices in $000's) $600 $550 $500 $450 $400 $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100

60 50 40

Table Definitions _______________

30 20 10 0

0MM J S N 1MM J S N 1MM J S N 1MM J S N 1MM J S N 1MM J S N 1MM J S N 1M 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 © 2015 rereport.com

Santa Cruz County - March 2016 Condos/Townhomes Cities County Aptos Boulder Creek Capitola Scotts Valley Santa Cruz Watsonville

$ $ $ $ $ $ $

Prices Median Average Sales Pend Inv DOI SP/LP 505,000 $ 517,117 42 23 64 46 99.7% 566,500 $ 558,800 10 6 24 72 98.0% 432,000 $ 432,000 2 0 4 60 98.9% 430,000 $ 433,667 3 4 6 60 100.4% 645,000 $ 608,162 4 3 2 15 97.5% 508,000 $ 507,930 15 6 17 34 101.4% 680,000 $ 552,800 5 3 9 54 98.7%

Median Price The price at which 50% of prices were higher and 50% were lower.

Average Price Add all prices and divide by the number of sales.

SP/LP Sales price to list price ratio or the price paid for the property divided by the asking price.

DOI % Change from Year Before

Prices Med Ave Sales Pend' Inven 10.0% 12.1% 7.7% -58.9% -54.9% 8.4% 7.4% 66.7% 50.0% 71.4% -55.0% -56.2% -71.4% n/a 0.0% 5.6% -5.1% -25.0% 33.3% -40.0% 33.3% 30.3% 0.0% 50.0% -60.0% 11.6% 13.5% 15.4% -33.3% -5.6% 121.7% 39.7% 25.0% -70.0% -87.1%

Days of Inventory, or how many days it would take to sell all the property for sale at the current rate of sales.

Pend Property under contract to sell that hasn’t closed escrow.

Inven Number pf properties actively for sale as of the last day of the month.

THE REAL ESTATE REPORT Santa Cruz County

Brandi Jones

David Lyng Real Estate 2170 41st Avenue Capitola, CA 95010

This is not intended as a solicitation if your home is currently listed.

Santa Cruz County Homes: Sales Price/Listing Price Ratio 102% 101% 100% 99% 98% 97% 96% 95% 0 MM J S N 1 MM J S N 1 MM J S N 1 MM J S N 1 MM J S N 1 MM J S N 1 MM J S N 1 M 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Š 2016 rereport.com

This Real Estate Report is published and copyrighted by http://rereport.com.

Information contained herein is deemed accurate and correct, but no warranty is implied or given.