V.gabond Editorials

By Jack Dionne

The older I grow and the more I see of life, the firmer becomes my conviction that "mine own shall come to me." ' Friends and opportunities cof,ne to me, not because I have struggled to get them, but because f have prepared myself to deserve and receive them. The more I give the world, the more the world gives me. The more worth while I make myself, the better things and better friends I get. My material possessions may have melted like the proverbial snow-ball in the rays of the sun, but my wealth, measured in terms of the REAL tr€asures of life, grows mountain high.

When some wag remarked at the close of 1930 that in 1933 we would all be wishing we had the good year 1930 back again, the witticism tickled us nearly to death, it was qo"-thgroughly funny. And now, in 1933, we realize that the prophet-whoever he was-was the ONLY genuine seer that the depression has developed.

He was unhonored *J Jr":*, but he was either the seventh son of a seventh son-or the Devil himself. Personally, I long ago quit the prophecying business. And I'll do none here.

:B**

I'm inclined to agree with Dr. Compton. And I rise to remark that if Mr. Lumber Business isn't sick enough yet to listen to reason, he's a pretty tough baby.

**:&

Doctor Compton recites the fact that the lumber industry should have been doing things for its own protection and safeguarding for years before the debacle of 1929, but, like many men, refused to listen to reason while still getting by. And he thinks that the future of the industry depends on itself-on how it rneets the changing conditions of the present and immediate future. He says that in ten years the industry will either have practically disappeared, or will have taken the place it rightfully deserves, as "the most universally useful of all the materials of industry." ***

You tell 'em, Doctor ! If you will review these Vagabonds you'll find I've said that same thing several thousand times in the last ten years. And now, look at 'em ! I'm not trying to rub it in now. I never hit a feller when he's down. But one of these days business generally will climb the hill, the wheels will turn, the sun will shine,and people will even build things. It is THEN that the lumber industry will have to decide what it is going to do to demand and deserve its share of the public dollar; and on that decision and its vigorous prosecution, its future will utterly depend. Don't doubt it.

A good friend asked me the other day to write him at * * * once my opinion on imrnediate prospects in the lumber ,,Lumber," says a headline in a contemporary lumber industry. I wrote him right back that I had no opinion. journal; "occupies a splendid statistical position as the He replied that he was certainly sorry to see me so de- year closes." Now if we can just discover some way to pressed over conditions. I told him I wasn't an infidel- exchange that ,,splendid statistical position" for a few just an agnostic. The infidel says "I don't believe." The profit-bearing orders, business will pick up. agnostic says "I don't know." I don't know either. So :r :r *

I've quit predicting' I've made an ass of myself often Twenty-five years ago the lumber industry manufacenough along that line' tured forty-five billion feet of lumber in a single year. rn * t' :* 1928 the production was still about thirty-six billion. In I But I've been reading all the business predictions and 1932 the total will be about ten billion-twenty-two p€tr gpinions I could get my hands on in the past few weeks. cent of the high water mark. And where did this huge My friend, Wilson Compton, of the National Lumber sliding deficit come from? Well, here's one first class Manufacturers Association, says that maybe some good answer: in 1928 webuilt 388,fi)0 homes in this country; in will come to the lumber industry out of this present situa- L929 we built 244,00o; in 1930 we built 125,000; in l93l it tion, because oftentimes a man won't take the medicine he was down to 65,000; and in this year lg3? it wilt probably needs until he gets mighty sick; then he listens to reason. not exceed 35,000. There are other answers that look something like this one, but this home-building indicator is fully illuminating. ***

Of course, that is why the headlines tell of the "splendid statistical position" of lumber. In 1928, when we built more than one thousand per cent more homes than we did in 1932, building was already off. The ordinary necessities of this country in ordinary times is about 400'000 new homes a year. We are already a million and a half homes short in our normal building operations. Add to that the fact that during these declining years we have not done a normal amount of remodeling and little or no repairing, and you realize that if we ever get money to build with in this country again, there is plenty of building to be done.

***

Another interesting movement is being noted nationally today that calls for specific mention. That is the tearing down of countless thousands of old homes TO KEEP FROM PAYING TAXES ON THEM. This is being done everywhere. Old-fashioned houses that bring little or no rent but are subject to heavy taxation are being razed to save the tremendous tax money of today. And that creates another future demand for building material, for, when things change, there will be buildings erected and improvements made on all that property that is being vacated. The number of buildings being thus destrofed at present is amazing. You will find it going on on every old residence street of every citY. *** trF*

It is just another intelligent effort to meet conditions. It reminds me somewhat of the tremendous number of concerns and individuals in this country today who are taking bankruptcy to get out from under some back-breaking load, such as boom-priced leases on buildings, contracts made on terms that can no longer be fulfilled, etc. There are lots of ways to skin a cat.

Let's quote another lumber dealer who is trying to diagnose present conditions, and point ways and means out. He is quoted as saying the other day to a lumber convention that "the building industry is now paralyzed because of the famine prevailing in mortgage rnoney." I'm afraid I can't ride with this friend on this opinion. Let us suppose that a dealer found someone who would furnish him the mortgage money, so that he could go ahead and build and sell houses in the good old-fashioned way-what good would it do him? Very little, I fear. To get home building going we've got to have more than a market for mortgage paper. 'We've got to have general conditions that

(Continued on Page 8)