Census Facts Hold Value For Irumber Industry

With the decline and fluctuations in lumber consumption during recent years, those who direct the course of the Lumber Industry appreciate today, more than ever before, the necessity for accurate, up-to-date facts and figures upon which to base their future plans. In consequence, they will find invaluable the wide range of data on lumber production, sales and distribution now being collected in the Sixteenth Decennial Census of the United States.

This 1940 compilation-the most comprehensive ever undertaken-includes the censuses of manufactures and business; the census of population, employment and income; a census of housing, which will be taken for the first time this year, in conjunction with the population census; and the censuses of agriculture, drainage and irrigation, and mines and quarries.

The census of manufactures rvill include the story of the lumber industry last year-not only itemized figures on its production, u'hich are compiled each year, but detailed information on specified costs of production and other operating activities, a biennial tabulation. This census will also record. the activities of every kind of manufacturer, including all lumber-consuming industries.

The census of business, which is being conducted for the first time in five years, will record sales of lumber companies, wholesale and retail dealers, in addition to voluminous data on the activities of 200,00O construction contractors.

The census of housing will show the type of structure and characteristics of 35,000,000 dwellings. The Census of Population will provide a vast store of information on consumer purchasing power in addition to other facts.

Concurrently, there will be the usual current and annual reports on lumber distribution and consumption-domestic and foreign-compiled jointly by the Census Bureau and other government agencies, such as the Forest Service of the Department of Agriculture and the Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce.

The annual census figures on lumber production in 1938 show that the six largest lumber states-Oregon, Washington, California, North Carolina, Alabama and Mississippicut that year nearly 57 pet cent of the Nation's more than 2ll blllion feet. Oregon and Washington alone cut that year orie-third of the total national production. These two states produced nearly 40 per cent of the soft wood' while Louisiana-the big hardwood state-cut 11 per cent of the Nation's total production of this lumber-

Although the total lumber production in 1938 was over four billion less feet than iir 1937, the industry bid fair last year to make up most of its losses, judging by the estimates of the Lumber Survey Committee, announced last November by its Secretary, Phillip A. Hayward, Chief of the Forest Products Division, Department of Commerce. This committee predicted, at that time, that lumber consumption in 1939 would be more than 26 billion feet, a gain of 18 per cent over 1938.

All those engaged in production, sales and distribution of lumber will want to check against these estimates the actual figures now being collected. The data which will appear in the census of manufactures, will show, in addition to production, major items in the cost of production, materials and labor. For the first time, figures will also be recorded on the expenditures during the year, for new machinery, plant expansion and alterations. Statistics will also be tabulated on the cost of electric energy and fuel, and for the first time since l9D, the number and capacity of prime movers and generators will be recorded. These data on operations will be valuable to those in charge of production as a measure of performance of their mills. The statistics of the number of feet cut of each of the various kinds of soft and hard wood will reflect the volume and trend of buying in each major rnarket last year, and their potentialities.

Sales and marketing staffs will want to compare the wholesale sales of lumber during 1939, in each state, with those in 1935, the last year for which the census of distribution was taken. In 1935, New York led the nation in both the rvholesale and retail lumber business. California had second place. These two states together had nearly 2A pet cent of this country's wholesale lumber business that year and fully lO per cent of the retail lumber business. The four states which ranked next in the wholesale lumber business rvere Washington, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. The last three states named also ranked high in retail sales, as did Texas, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

The statistics of lumber distribution in 1939, now being collected, will include not only the sales of wholesalers and retailers, but wholesalers' cost of selling and delivery, and an analysis of cash-credit sales and inventories. By computing the average figures, each distributor can determine if he is getting the share of business to which he is entitled and if his costs bre in line with the rest of the industry. He can also determine the stability of the lumber business in different sections of the country which will be reflected by data on length of ownership of wholesale and retail establishments. There will be data on consumer debts and outstanding accounts of retailers. Lumber companies and distributors will find the information valuable, too, as a guide in determining the advisability of territorial expansion, and where to expand.

The sales of lumber companies will show the volume of business handled through each distribution channel and the amount of buying by each major market.

A still further guide in studying market potentialities will be the statistics which will be set forth in the census of manufactures on the cost of materials, including lumber, of all manufacturers of wood products.

Each lumber dealer will be able to obtain from this year's census exact figures on the lumber business in his particular territory, for the sales of lumber will be tabulated by states, counties and many cities. The 1936 figures on lumber distribution and consumption, compiled jointly by the Census Bureau and the Forest Service of the Department of Agriculture, shows that fully 45 per cent of the lumber pro_ duced by the states is retained within the same states. Michigan, for example, retained in 1936, 75.6 per cent of its own lumber, Wisconsin 67.6 per cent of the lumber it cut, California 61.5 per cent of its lumber, North Carolina 58 per cent, Arkansas and Alabama, more than 30 per cent of the lumber each of these states produced, Oregon, Washington and Mississippi, more than 26 per cent of their own lumber.

The greatest national market for lumber is in the highly industrialized states east of the Mississippi and north of the Ohio and Potomac Rivers. This region uses more than one-third of the lumber consumed, but produces only onefourth of the lumber it consumes. More than half the population lives in this region. From the standpoint of per capita consumption of lumber, however, there is another story to tell. The statistics for 1936 show that the per capita consumptio,n of lumber in the Pacific Coast states rvas at this time many times as high as in the Middle Atlantic states and Ner,v England states. This is accounted for in the different type of dwelling used. In the eastern region people live to a much larger extent in the tall apartment houses which require comparatively little .lvood in their construction.

Housing development throughout the United States, will be reflected by the survey of construction activities under the census of business and the census of housing. In the census of construction residential and other light building work will be classified separately from heavy construction.

All contracts for one and two-family houses will be recorded, as well as all other buildings in which wood is used. This compilation will show the building activities in each state and in each of the larger cities. The new housing census will show the type of structure and characteristics of 35,000,000 dwelling units-whether they are of wood construction, their age and condition, their need for major repairs, the amount of over-crowding and double-up families, their market value and mortgage status, and the rental value for leased homes.

The population census will throw new light on srlburban developments. By its summary of the answers to,the question "Where did you live five years ago?', it will show whether there is an increasing number of people who are moving to the snburbs, and measu,re the need for new homes there.

Since timeliness of the information being collected is essential to business men, the cooperation and quick response of those giving the answers to the questions asked is of the utmost importance to them as well as to the Census Bureau. Business men and manufacturers can make possible the complete success of the census of business and manufactures, thereby assuring maximum value of the figures to be compiled, by filling out as rapidly as possible the questionnaires submitted to them by census takers. Some 12,000 enumerators are in the field calling on business men. They are delivering questionnaires to reporting firms and calling for them as quickly as they are filled out. With the full cooperation of those questioned their work will be completed by May and the first reports will be published by late summer or early fall. In April, 120,000 additional enumerators rvill be in the field collecting the balance of the information which will go into the other census reports on population, housing, agriculture, et cetera.

The same law r,vhich requires reporting to the Census Bureau protects those giving the answers by prohibiting the Bureau from disclosing any individual facts, including names and identity, even to any other government agency. Only sworn census employees will see the reports. The data collected rvill be used solely for preparing statistical information concerning the Nation's population, resources and business activities. Assurance is given that the reports rn'ill not be used for purposes of taxation, regulation or investigation.