Present Conditions and Prospects in the Northwest

By C. C. CROW Editor Crow's Pacific Coast Lumber Index

Present conditions of the lumber industry throughout Oregon and Washington present a very complex.study that has many conflicting angles if delved into deeply

The fiist six months of this year have seen a heavy consumption of lumber, but the production has been fully equal to it and tardy placements have kept the market in a languid condition most of the time.

It is not to be wondered at that the cut has been heavy, for never in the historv of the Northwest have conditions been more ideal for b6th logging and sawmill operation. In the first place there was no winter and spring was mild with plenty of moisture even up to the present time to keep the fire hazard, down to a minimum.

Some few mills that operate under especially advantageous conditions have made a little money but a vast majority have lost.

There are two conditions in the Northwest which will always stimulate production, one is when conditions are good and the mills, being accustomed to long spells of no profits and sporadic spurts of prosperity, leap into the breach to try to make as much money as possible while there is a margin to be had. The other is when in sheer desperation, when the market is off color and 'prices have dropped to a low point, the manufacturers are confronted with the problem of shutting down and having a fixed overhead loss to absorb or adding shifts and distributing these charges over a larger footage, thereby reducing the manufacturing costs. During the last few months the heavy production has undoubtedly been more of a matter of compulsion than choice for the average operation has been having a difficult time in avoiding serious losses.

There is a limit to this trend and that is rapidly being reached now. A number of mills throughout the Northwest have recently shut down with no intention of starting up until conditions improve, for it must be remembered that even though a mill is able to operate at a nominal book loss they are dissipating their standing timber and throwing away the opportunity to make money when conditions are right.

From now on it looks as though production will steadily decrease unless some unexpected development should bring about an improvement in the demand. As the season advances a feeling of resignation is becoming more and more a.pparent.and the buoyancy born o{ a blind hope that.conditions will somehow improve, is disappearing.

There are two times in the year when the lumber manufactuleJs and logging camps of the Northwest stop long enoriffi:to make repairs or take a short holiday, the 4th of July adtl.Christmas. With the trade educated to this idea, there is usually a scurry to get under cover- with any special cutting business just frior to these two dates. This.year is no &ception and thire has lately been more cutting !.o:iness ofierld than there was and -prices have had a slight upward tendency. However, unfortunately, the shutdowns oi this year do not promise to be as heavy as usual and just what will happen in ;uty and August remains to be seen' At no time this year has the market been on a consistent basis, as first oni trade factor and'then another has taken the lead or fallen to the rear. The market has never been badlv out of balance and a verv small increase in the volume bein! placed or a similar deirease in the cut would have been sufficient to put it on its feet.

The condition of stocks at the mills throughout the Northwest is just as erratic as the market itself. While some concerns- have fairlv large inventories, as far as footage goes, a majority ate pootly balanced lnd consequently t[e flacing of brdeis requires -as much effort as it does at a time when values are considerably higher than they are. Badly mixed orders and quick shipments that during normal timei in the past would have demanded a 'premium have become the ordinary thing.

Predicting what the balabce of his year will be is very largely a mltter of guesswork, but as one extreme in the lumber industry ubually follows another it does look as though the botlom has about been reached. No one can reasonably expect prices to go much lower than they are, as the cost of production prelludes it. Wages being- paid in the logging camps and mills throughout the Northwest are as low aslhey ian go and permit of the workers living decently. Heavy taxes make the carrying of timber an increasing burden-and if lumber is to be sold for less it would mean that the money would have to come out of the pockets of the manufacturers.

,Once a mill goes down and crews become disorganized they are not liable to start up until fairly sure that they can make money. It is not reasonable to expect any increase in buying during July and August. Should it drop off, production will probbbly go with it and when the demand starts in the fall, as it is quite likely to, the output of lumber will be slow to get under way, in which event the wholesale market for lumber could improve very quickly. That is a possible turn. One thing is certain, there is no use to expect the prices on fir to make any appreciable further declines as the bottom has been reaChed, in fact with many it has already been passed and they are meeting competition only by selling their product for less than it costs to tur.n it out, and such a condition cannot long exist.

S.AN DIEGO GOES OVER BIG IN JUNE

Last minute advice from San Diego tells of a big building month for June.

To the night of the 26th their permit totals'were crowding nine million dollars, and the total for the same month last year was $9,2M,935.

CALIFORNIA RANKS SECOND IN VALU.E OF FA'RM PRODUCTS

Sacrarnento, June Z4.-,California ranks second among states of the nation ir value of her agricultural output, E. E. Kaufman, federal and state agricultural statistician, declared in his annual report made public today.

This state had farm crops worth more than V73,897,N0 last year, the report said. The previous year's crops were valued at $437,755,@4.

E. K. WOOD OFFICIALS VLSIT LOS ANGELES

Several officials of the E. K. Wood l,umber Company have recently visited the Los Angeles plants, Mr. Fred 'Wood, Mr. George Kellog, manager of the Hoquiam plant, Mr. Fred Norman, superintendent at Anacortes and Bellingham and Mr. H. F. Vincent.

NELSON JONES ON TRrP TO NORTHWEST

Nelson Jones, Jones Hardwood Company, San Francisco, is in the Northwest where he expects to spend two or three weeks on business matters. He will visit Portland, Tacoma, and Seattle. He is making the trip by automobile and is accompanied by Mrs. Jones.

H. F. MORTON RETURNS FROM NORTHWEST TRIP

H. P. Morton, Hill & Morton, well known Bay District wholesaler, has returned from a two weeks' business trip to the Northwest where he was calling on the mills and meeting many of his friends connected with the industry. While in the North, he made his headquarters at their Portland office.

GEORGE H. BROWN RETURNS FROM TRIP

George H. Brown, President of the Strable Co., Oakland, has returned from a trip to New where he spent a few weeks combining business ure. He reports that business conditions in metropolis are good. Mrs. Brown accompanied trip.

CONGRATULATIONS, "DIJKE !''

Eastern

Hardwood York City with pleasthe eastern him on the

M. L. "Duke" Euphrat, well known and popular San Francisco wholesale lumberman and a member of the Wendling-Nathan Company, is wearing a big broad smile these days, the occasion being the arrival of a fine bouncing boy at his house. He reports that Mrs. Euphrat and the new arrival are doing just splendid.

FRED LAMON TRANSFERRED TO SAN FR"A,N. clsco oFFrcE-J. $."t*8"", JR. GoES ro

Fred l-amon, representative in the San Joaquin Valley territory for the Wendling-Nathan Company, has been transferred to the company's Sar Francisco office where effective July 1, he will have charge of the company's California White and Sugar Pine Department. Mr. Lamon has represented the Wendling-Nathan Company in the San Joaquin Valley for the past seven years, making his headquarters at Fresno.

J. C; Seead, Jr. who has been acting as the company's representative in the Sonoma and Marin county territory, will act as their representative in the San Joaquin Valley, making his headquarters at Fresno.

Tully Going North

G. R. (letr) Tully, with A. W. Smith in Los Angeles, has left for Tacoma, where he will open a buying office for the A. W. Smith Lumber Company.

Wants Yard Man

Southern California yard, small town, wants all round yard man. Must be capable of selling, doing general yard work, and have a thorough knowledge of lumber. Address Box A-173. care California Lumber Merchant.

Hoff On Northern Trip

Mr. George F. Hoff, Secretary of the Materialmen's Association of San Diego, is on an extended trip through the northwest. He will visit most of the important lumber centers, taking in side trip to the mills. Will be back about August first.

HOMDR T. HAYWARD LUMBER CO. EMPLOYEE.S HAVE PICNIC

Nearly 100 employees of the Homer T. Hayward Lumber Co., whlch consiitei of the employees from all their yards, recently assembled at the summer home of Otto Rogge and Albin Anderson in Eureka.Canyon near Watsonville, where a combined business and pleasure meeting was held. An excellent luncheon was served outdoors under the shade of the large linden trees, and after a short business session, the remairder of the afternoon was enjoyed in outdoor sports and games.

The feature event of the day was the "Steak Eating Contest," which was won by no other than Arthur Hayward himself. The arrangements for this enjoyyable party was looked after by Otto Rogge and Albin Anderson of the company's Watsonville yard.

MISS LEONA.PERKINS VISITING IN THE NORTH- wsT

Miss Leona Perkins, Charles R. McCormick Lumber Co., San Francisco, is sojourning in the Northwest on her vacation. She is at present at St. Helens, Oregon, where she is the guest of her sister, Mrs. Hamlin F. McCormick. Before her return to San Francisco, she plans to make a tour of Washington and Oregon where she will visit the many points of interest of the "Charmed Land."

JERRY STUTZ CHECKS rN AT HE.ADQUA'RTERS

Jerry Stutz, representative in the San Joaquin Valley for the Coos Bay Lumber Co., with headquarters at Fresno, was a recent San Francisco visitor where he spent a few days on business matters. Jerry attended the Bay District Hoo-Hoo Concat on June 10 where he met many of San Francisco lumbermen friends.

L. E. GATES PASSES ON

L. Edward Gates, fondly and familiarly known to his intimates as Lee, succumbed to a long complicated illness, on Monday, June 14th, at the home of his brother in law, at Rialto.

Lee Gates was Secretary and Treasurer of the Los Angeles County Branch of the Millwork Institute of Cplifornia, a position that he held since the inception of the Institute. Prior'to that he held the position of Secretary of the United Sash and Door Dealers of Southern California.

Lee Gates was well and favorably known by thousands of California mill men, was well liked, and his passing was keenly regreted by everyone.

Funeral services were held at Los Angeles on the 19th, and were attended by a large number of the members tlf the Millwork Institute.

He is survived by a widow and one daughter.