How the "Erperts" Missed Their Guesses

"Commerce and Financer" under date of June 3rd, 1931' prints an article showing ho,w little we may depend upon the opinions of ecoqomists and financial experts in times of depression, demonstrating by an interesting list of quotations and facts that just when they say things are darkist is when prosperity may be climbing in through the window.

On November 4th, 1921, eight well known finangial experts were asked to give their opinions on conditions and prospects. Here are the eight opinions:

1. "The farmer will not buy much from the proceeds of this harvest; and, with the price declines in process throughout the world, there would seem to be very little prospect for any extensive business revival in the near future".

2. "The general prospect is for slow and irregular busi' ness for ten years".

3. "I expect to see a long and slow recovery to a general level of sub-normal, slow business".

4. "Prices will advance a little from present levels, and then fall once more. Recovery will be slou/'.

5. "Conditions abroad will coqtinue to afrect our business conditions here. It is a conservative estimate td say that ten ydars must elapse before we cdrl see Seffit€*lf prosperous business in this countq/".

6. "Business will come back to fair, slow opeiaiions'iir three years".

7, "The period of readjustment will be long. It will take at least ten years".

8. "We must expect a slow return to a basis on which business can,hF done at a profit in about tttree yeals". , YET WITHIN FOUR MONTHS BUSINESS WAS GRAND AND WITHIN A YEAR THERE WAS A BIG BOOM ON.

So, don't let what anyone tells you about business prospects dispirit.you. No one knows. And it is iust as likely that we have prosperity just ahead of us TODAY as it was in the fall of 1921 when all these wise guys were telling us there was nothing but trouble ahead.