Where Do We Go From Here?

A thumbnail survey of factors afrecting the forest industry.

By Wilson Compton, Secretary and Manager, National Lumber Manuf,acturers Association

Twenty-one months ago the industry declared that there would be no "bottleneck" in lumber. That was a justifiable statement then. But the defense program, and now the war program, has since multiplied war production more than seven times. Pearl Harbor and its aftermath of gigantic war expansion has brought a congestion of construction which, for the time being at least, has converted this fundamental "safety valve" industry into a "bottleneck."

This year will see the largest "take" from our forests since 1925. To some extent we are mortgaging our future by the present abnormal drain on our forests, but not irreparably. The over-cutting is not excessive. Prior to the war annual growth of timber approximated the annual cut. There is some deficit now, particularly in the higher grades. After the war we shall have to go farther to get our timber, and prices will be higher. Also there will be more novel and economical forms of timber products.

Present estimates call for production of 38,700,00O,000 board feet of lumber for war, defense, and essential civilian requirements during this year. Loggers and manufacturers are straining to meet this staggering demand. At this writing production is running behind in a ratio of about six-toseven. Before the year is out, I believe that production will catch up some of the difference, and a balance will be struck by a re-appraisement of requirements.

Even the Army, Navy, and shipyards are not now getting all the lumber they need. There are two ways to meet that situation: On the one hand to drive for increased production and on the other hand to ask other less urgent defense, civilian, and farm uses of lumber to stand aside temporarily.

Both those methods are being employed. The first, based on an appeal from the War Production Board, can be accomplished only through overtime operations. The second' is being attempted through Limitation Order l2l, with moderate success so far. As long as the present unbalanced equation of production and requirements continues some uses will come first, some will come second, and some will go without. There is no constructive answer to this situation except more production.

This congestion of war requirements of lumber would have been greatly relieved, if the war agencies months ago had taken the advice of the Lumber & Timber Products War Committee that they co-ordinate their specifications, anticipate their major lumber requirements as far as pbssible, and frankly buy in advance for reserve. I think that advice was not heeded, because of the prevailing belief that lumber could stand the strain and would be available when needed. But the plain fact is that finally too many liberties have been taken with lumber and timber products and drastic actions now are necessary. Some have been taken already. Others will be taken later.

With the constructive actions already initiated by Arthur T. Upson as chief of the newly founded Lumber & Lumber Products Branch of the War Production Board, it is not too much to expect that eventually these problems will be eased. No one knows better than he the necessity of coordination of specifications and the timing of purchasing and the desirability of holding so far the opportunity for the use of lumber for essential civilian purposes without priorities and without allocation.

The first general Conservation Order, prohibiting the use of metals in hundreds of Civilian industrial products, will add new strains on lumber supply and lumber production. Fortunately, these strains will fall principally on shop and factory softwoods and hardwoods, less on construction lumber. But the predicted and prospective substitutions of wood products for metals needed for fighting tools are in fantastic figures.

One need not gaze into the crystal ball to see that the immediate outlook for most lumber retailers is a rocky road. Their initiative and resourcefulness will be strained to meet current conditions.

Estimates of. 1942 consumption of lumber set 'War and Navy Department construction at 12 billion board feet; boxes and crates at 7; f,arm construction, 5; defense residential, 4.4; f.actory construction, 3.4; railroad construction, 3.1; building repairs and maintenance, 1.6.

The lumber dealer must look to the farm, building repairs, and defense housing items for his principal sustenance. Patently, the retailer in a defense or farm area 'has the best chance of coming through. There is enough busi: ness there to keep most retailers alive, if they are careful and diligent. "'Tis not so deep as a well, nor so wide as a church door, but 'tis enough. 'Twill serve !,,

The peak of war construction should be reached and passed this year. Retailers who can last out the next twelve months, can last the rest of the way. The end of the virar will see fewer retailers in the lumber business, f beieve, and better ones . also manufacturers.