RECESSION TO FOLLOW INFLATIONARY PERIOD
A Dr. James Doti
By Lynette Bertrand, Director of Marketing & Communications
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Vision Summer 2022 | cacm.org
bout a year ago, Dr. James Doti presented Chapman’s economic forecast to executives via Zoom, and his predictions mostly played out. H A HH):fiHHHiPfi increase to 5.3 percent by 2023 from around 2 percent. Just 11 months since, H:Hfi:H¨.¯/2PHHPP higher than anticipated. Doti said by end of o2)H:Pfifi2/H˘/2PH.
Other factors that are impacting the U.S. economy are:
His remarks were made in person this time as the Executive Leadership Summit took place in Monterey Bay, bringing together about 100 management executives, service providers, and guests for two days of networking and discussions on some of the industry’s biggest challenges and opportunities.
However, the major reason for the current climate is federal spending, which totaled $7.5 trillion since 2020.
• 100 percent increase in gas prices since January 2021 • Increase in prices across the board on products, from poultry to cars driven by demand and supply chain issues
WWZJJ2fiH:fiˇ:P expansion,” Doti said, adding that the —J2H:2PP/HfiPHHˇPfi the various stimulus packages over the past two years.
T:2/P2:H:Hƒ n/PHfi—JHP2:oi during the early days of the pandemic. Driven by stimulus packages, the U.S. economy saw a 25 percent increase in o:P//oF:H—HHfiZH been seen since World War II, Doti noted.
Household net worth is also pushing H)—2i—ˇ2``TH22o 2020 to 150 trillion in the last quarter of 2021. This wealth is fueling consumer purchasing and driving up demand and ultimately pricing.
While money supply has come down to 10 percent, this boost in money creation has 2:PHfi—H.WMo:P//o will decrease to 8 percent by end of year, but the damage has already been done,” Doti said.
Gross Domestic Product went to a high of 5.7 in 2021, from -3.4 in 2020, but Doti predicts it will come back down to 3.2 in 2022. For reference, GDP in the three years prior to the pandemic ranged from 2.3 to 2.9.
