The 2015 first quarter sales results in Pebble Beach and the prime parts of Carmel showed clear slowing, with varying impacts throughout the price spectrum; too early to call trend lines but, as always, some interesting patterns and nuances worth noting: Pebble Beach: - The number of closed sales was down 30% from 4Q 2014; however, we’re carrying 20 pending sales into Q2 so we may yet see a return to the mean as we move into our peak selling season. - The dominant market in Pebble remains under $2.5M, with 75% of all sales. - We saw a surge in activity between $2.5-$4M, with 4 closed sales and 3 pending sales. - Some activity between $6-$8M but comatose north of $8M. Real soft spot is between $8-$15M – sellers can expect aggressive discounting there to bring deals together. Prime Carmel: - Carmel actually saw an even greater decline in closed sales, falling 35%; however, rather than due to lack of demand, this has been more due to lack of supply, a condition we see persisting for some time. With 22 pending sales Carmel is also poised to catch up to market averages but it appears unlikely to reach 2014 levels. - Carmel also remains predominantly an under $2.5M market but did see a surge in deals between $4-6M and one very large deal at $12.75M (the third highest sale in Carmel history). - A highly favored location, Carmel Point sales slowed to a crawl last quarter – very tight inventory on The Point right now. We’ve also added analysis on the Carmel Meadows/Highlands markets (extending south through Otter Cove), as well as the Quail Lodge/Meadows markets: Carmel Meadows/Highlands: - Historically slower moving with longer days-on-market, we saw a fairly significant spike in interest in this market. That said, inventory is high and action slow in the $4-$15M range. Quail Lodge/Meadows: - Quail Lodge has enjoyed a huge rebound the past two years and Q1 is off to a record start. The only thing that will likely hold that market back will be tightening inventory levels. - We saw the first sale north of $2M at Quail Lodge ($2.1M) since 2009. We do see demand rising up the price spectrum and are closely watching demand north of $2M. As always, if you have any specific questions on the market feel free to give us a call or shoot us an email. Yours very truly,
JESSICA CANNING
MIKE CANNING
831.238.5535 jessica@canningproperties.com CalBRE#01920034
831.596.1171 mike@mikecanning.com CalBRE#01004964
NICHOLAS CANNING 831.241.4458 nicholas@canningproperties.com CalBRE#01959355
1Q15
Percentage of Sales Price Off of List Price Sales Price
1Q15 Total Carmel Highlands
Average Days on Market
Pebble Quail Beach
Sales Price
Total Carmel Highlands
Pebble Quail Beach
<$1M
-4.8%
-6.7%
N/A
-2.0%
-3.6%
<$1M
76
25
336
72
218
$1.0M-$1.5M
-3.7%
-5.1%
-4.4%
-1.9%
-4.2%
$1.0M-$1.5M
93
113
N/A
64
N/A
$1.5M-$2.0M
-5.8%
-5.1%
-10.2%
-4.1%
-4.3%
$1.5M-$2.0M
122
147
85
92
N/A
$2.0M-$2.5M
-6.0%
-6.1%
-6.3%
-4.2%
-8.8%
$2.0M-$2.5M
117
112
N/A
120
N/A
$2.5M-$3.0M
-8.5%
-8.5%
N/A
N/A
N/A
$2.5M-$3.0M
164
224
23
144
64
$3.0M-$4.0M
-6.4%
-2.2%
0.0%
-9.1%
N/A
$3.0M-$4.0M
167
168
311
104
245
$4.0M-$6.0M
-2.7%
-3.6%
N/A
-1.7%
N/A
$4.0M-$6.0M
178
175
199
186
110
$6.0M-$8.0M
-2.9%
-2.9%
N/A
N/A
N/A
$6.0M-$8.0M
291
261
298
303
N/A
$8.0M-$15.0M
-15.4%
-12.1%
-18.7%
N/A
N/A
$8.0M-$15.0M
350
N/A
438
325
N/A
$15M+
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
$15M+
351
63
175
505
N/A
Total
-5.3%
-5.8%
-7.6%
Total
161
136
243
161
149
JESSICA CANNING 831.238.5535 jessica@canningproperties.com CalBRE#01920034
-3.9% -4.5%
MIKE CANNING 831.596.1171 mike@mikecanning.com CalBRE#01004964
NICHOLAS CANNING 831.241.4458 nicholas@canningproperties.com CalBRE#01959355
1Q15
JESSICA CANNING 831.238.5535 jessica@canningproperties.com CalBRE#01920034
MIKE CANNING 831.596.1171 mike@mikecanning.com CalBRE#01004964
NICHOLAS CANNING 831.241.4458 nicholas@canningproperties.com CalBRE#01959355
Pebble Beach | 1Q15 1Q Sales & Inventory Price Range
1Q Sales
Pending
Active
<$1.0M
3
3
8
$1.0M-$1.5M
7
6
10
$1.5M-$2.0M
4
3
7
$2.0M-$2.5M
2
2
10
$2.5M-$3.0M
0
3
3
$3.0M-$4.0M
4
0
6
$4.0M-$6.0M
1
1
9
$6.0M-$8.0M
0
2
4
$8.0M-$15.0M
0
0
7
$15M+
0
0
3
Total
21
20
67
Percentage of Sales Price Off of List Price Sales Price
2012
2013
2014
2015
<$1M
-4.3%
-3.6%
-2.7%
-2.0%
$1.0M-$1.5M
-4.9%
-5.8%
-5.3%
-1.9%
$1.5M-$2.0M
-4.3%
-7.4%
-5.4%
-3.7%
$2.0M-$2.5M
-9.4%
-3.9%
-10.5%
-4.2%
$2.5M-$3.0M
-12.2%
-5.1%
-7.3%
N/A
$3.0M-$4.0M
-8.7%
-6.3%
-9.2%
-9.1%
$4.0M-$6.0M
-9.2%
-7.8%
-13.5%
-1.7%
$6.0M-$8.0M
-16.2%
-11.3%
-8.6%
N/A
$8.0M-$15.0M
-10.6%
-6.9%
-12.0%
N/A
$15M+
N/A
-12.2%
-3.7%
N/A
Total
-5.9%
-5.1%
-5.8%
-3.8%
JESSICA CANNING 831.238.5535 jessica@canningproperties.com CalBRE#01920034
MIKE CANNING 831.596.1171 mike@mikecanning.com CalBRE#01004964
NICHOLAS CANNING 831.241.4458 nicholas@canningproperties.com CalBRE#01959355
Pebble Beach | 1Q15
Annual Sales by Price Range Sales Price
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
<$1.0M
6
7
22
26
38
47
59
57
43
3
$1.0M-$1.5M
28
16
21
19
15
11
26
31
35
7
$1.5M-$2.0M
13
10
11
6
8
13
19
6
24
4
$2.0M-$2.5M
6
10
7
4
4
5
10
10
11
2
$2.5M-$3.0M
8
12
8
5
6
5
5
6
10
0
$3.0M-$4.0M
7
10
12
5
6
6
5
7
4
4
$4.0M-$6.0M
5
7
4
1
1
5
7
8
8
1
$6.0M-$8.0M
1
1
2
1
3
2
3
3
2
0
$8.0M-$15.0M
4
3
2
2
2
3
3
2
4
0
$15M+
1
0
2
0
2
0
0
2
4
0
Total
79
76
91
69
85
97
137
132
145
21
Information believed to be reliable as obtained from the Monterey County Association of Realtors RE Infolink and known off-market transactions.
JESSICA CANNING 831.238.5535 jessica@canningproperties.com CalBRE#01920034
MIKE CANNING 831.596.1171 mike@mikecanning.com CalBRE#01004964
NICHOLAS CANNING 831.241.4458 nicholas@canningproperties.com CalBRE#01959355
Carmel Point & Golden Rectangle
1Q15
Carmel Point Price Range <$1.0M
1Q Sales Pending 0 0
Active 0
$1.0M-$1.5M
0
1
0
$1.5M-$2.0M
0
0
0
$2.0M-$2.5M
0
0
3
$2.5M-$3.0M
0
1
2
$3.0M-$4.0M
0
0
0
$4.0M-$6.0M
1
1
1
$6.0M-$8.0M
0
0
1
$8.0M-$15.0M
0
0
0
$15M+
0
0
0
Total
1
3
7
Golden Rectangle Price Range <$1.0M
1Q Sales Pending 0 0
Active 0
$1.0M-$1.5M
1
0
1
$1.5M-$2.0M
4
0
2
$2.0M-$2.5M
1
1
2
$2.5M-$3.0M
1
0
2
$3.0M-$4.0M
0
0
5
$4.0M-$6.0M
0
1
1
$6.0M-$8.0M
1
0
2
$8.0M-$15.0M
0
0
0
$15M+
0
0
0
Total
8
2
15
Information believed to be reliable as obtained from the Monterey County Association of Realtors RE Infolink and known off-market transactions.
JESSICA CANNING 831.238.5535 jessica@canningproperties.com CalBRE#01920034
MIKE CANNING 831.596.1171 mike@mikecanning.com CalBRE#01004964
NICHOLAS CANNING 831.241.4458 nicholas@canningproperties.com CalBRE#01959355
Carmel Point & Golden Rectangle
Percentage of Sales Price Off of List Price
1Q15
Annual Sales
Sales Price Range
2012
2013
2014
2015
Sales Price Range
<$1M
-8.2%
-13.9%
-5.9%
N/A
$1.0M-$1.5M
-7.0%
-6.1%
-7.1%
$1.5M-$2.0M
-3.9%
-3.6%
$2.0M-$2.5M
-8.8%
$2.5M-$3.0M
2012
2013
2014
2015
<$1M
8
2
1
0
8.7%
$1.0M-$1.5M
24
12
12
1
-2.1%
-3.9%
$1.5M-$2.0M
9
13
9
4
-6.3%
-5.7%
-5.0%
$2.0M-$2.5M
9
14
16
1
-10.7%
-9.1%
-7.1%
-8.5%
$2.5M-$3.0M
5
3
11
1
$3.0M-$4.0M
-12.5%
-5.8%
-3.3%
N/A
$3.0M-$4.0M
5
12
16
0
$4.0M-$6.0M
-14.6%
-5.9%
-5.5%
-3.6%
$4.0M-$6.0M
5
8
7
1
$6.0M-$8.0M
N/A
-1.5%
-8.5%
-2.9%
$6.0M-$8.0M
0
2
2
1
$8.0M-$15.0M
-7.4%
N/A
0.0%
N/A
$8.0M-$15.0M
1
0
1
0
N/A
-14.1%
N/A
N/A
$15.0M+
0
1
0
0
-8.2%
-5.9%
-5.2%
-3.0%
Total
66
67
75
9
$15.0M+ Total
JESSICA CANNING 831.238.5535 jessica@canningproperties.com CalBRE#01920034
MIKE CANNING 831.596.1171 mike@mikecanning.com CalBRE#01004964
NICHOLAS CANNING 831.241.4458 nicholas@canningproperties.com CalBRE#01959355
Carmel Meadows & Carmel Highlands
1Q15
Carmel Meadows Price Range <$1.0M
1Q Sales Pending
Active
0
0
1
$1.0M-$1.5M
0
0
0
$1.5M-$2.0M
0
0
2
$2.0M-$2.5M
1
0
0
$2.5M-$3.0M
0
0
0
$3.0M-$4.0M
0
0
0
$4.0M-$6.0M
0
1
0
$6.0M-$8.0M
0
0
0
$8.0M-$15.0M
0
0
0
$15M+
0
0
0
Total
1
1
3
Carmel Highlands Price Range <$1.0M
1Q Sales Pending
Active
0
0
0
$1.0M-$1.5M
3
0
0
$1.5M-$2.0M
3
0
1
$2.0M-$2.5M
0
0
0
$2.5M-$3.0M
0
1
1
$3.0M-$4.0M
1
0
2
$4.0M-$6.0M
0
0
4
$6.0M-$8.0M
0
0
6
$8.0M-$15.0M
1
0
2
$15M+
0
0
1
Total
8
1
17
Information believed to be reliable as obtained from the Monterey County Association of Realtors RE Infolink and known off-market transactions.
JESSICA CANNING 831.238.5535 jessica@canningproperties.com CalBRE#01920034
MIKE CANNING 831.596.1171 mike@mikecanning.com CalBRE#01004964
NICHOLAS CANNING 831.241.4458 nicholas@canningproperties.com CalBRE#01959355
Carmel Meadows & Carmel Highlands
Percentage of Sales Price Off of List Price
1Q15
Annual Sales
Sales Price Range
2012
2013
2014
2015
Sales Price Range
<$1M
-2.5%
-2.0%
-10.1%
N/A
$1.0M-$1.5M
1.6%
-11.6%
-7.8%
$1.5M-$2.0M
N/A
-8.2%
$2.0M-$2.5M
-10.3%
$2.5M-$3.0M
2012
2013
2014
2015
<$1M
7
2
3
0
-4.4%
$1.0M-$1.5M
3
8
4
3
-6.0%
-10.2%
$1.5M-$2.0M
0
3
4
3
-13.2%
-23.1%
-6.3%
$2.0M-$2.5M
2
2
1
1
0.0%
-2.0%
-8.4%
N/A
$2.5M-$3.0M
1
2
1
0
$3.0M-$4.0M
-3.7%
-11.6%
-6.0%
0.0%
$3.0M-$4.0M
1
3
2
1
$4.0M-$6.0M
-17.6%
-11.9%
-9.2%
N/A
$4.0M-$6.0M
2
6
6
0
$6.0M-$8.0M
N/A
N/A
-6.3%
N/A
$6.0M-$8.0M
0
0
2
0
$8.0M-$15.0M
-20.9%
N/A
N/A
-18.7%
$8.0M-$15.0M
2
0
0
1
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
$15.0M+
0
0
0
0
-6.3%
-9.9%
-8.6%
-7.6%
Total
18
26
23
9
$15.0M+ Total
JESSICA CANNING 831.238.5535 jessica@canningproperties.com CalBRE#01920034
MIKE CANNING 831.596.1171 mike@mikecanning.com CalBRE#01004964
NICHOLAS CANNING 831.241.4458 nicholas@canningproperties.com CalBRE#01959355
Quail Meadows & Quail Lodge
1Q15
Quail Meadows Price Range <$1.0M
1Q Sales
Pending
Active
0
0
0
$1.0M-$1.5M
0
0
0
$1.5M-$2.0M
0
0
0
$2.0M-$2.5M
0
0
0
$2.5M-$3.0M
0
0
0
$3.0M-$4.0M
0
0
1
$4.0M-$6.0M
0
0
2
$6.0M-$8.0M
0
0
0
$8.0M-$15.0M
0
0
0
$15M+
0
0
0
Total
0
0
3
Quail Lodge Price Range <$1.0M
1Q Sales
Pending
Active
4
1
1
$1.0M-$1.5M
1
1
0
$1.5M-$2.0M
1
1
0
$2.0M-$2.5M
1
0
0
$2.5M-$3.0M
0
0
1
$3.0M-$4.0M
0
0
0
$4.0M-$6.0M
0
0
0
$6.0M-$8.0M
0
0
0
$8.0M-$15.0M
0
0
0
$15M+
0
0
0
Total
7
3
2
Information believed to be reliable as obtained from the Monterey County Association of Realtors RE Infolink and known off-market transactions.
JESSICA CANNING 831.238.5535 jessica@canningproperties.com CalBRE#01920034
MIKE CANNING 831.596.1171 mike@mikecanning.com CalBRE#01004964
NICHOLAS CANNING 831.241.4458 nicholas@canningproperties.com CalBRE#01959355
Quail Meadows & Quail Lodge
Percentage of Sales Price Off of List Price
1Q15
Annual Sales
Sales Price Range
2012
2013
2014
2015
Sales Price Range
<$1M
-8.0%
-6.1%
-2.9%
-3.6%
$1.0M-$1.5M
-3.7%
-5.2%
-6.1%
$1.5M-$2.0M
N/A
-9.7%
$2.0M-$2.5M
-15.8%
$2.5M-$3.0M
2012
2013
2014
2015
<$1M
8
6
3
4
-4.2%
$1.0M-$1.5M
4
12
9
1
-4.2%
-4.3%
$1.5M-$2.0M
0
3
5
1
N/A
N/A
-8.8%
$2.0M-$2.5M
1
0
0
1
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
$2.5M-$3.0M
0
0
0
0
$3.0M-$4.0M
-9.4%
-9.9%
-9.0%
N/A
$3.0M-$4.0M
1
1
2
0
$4.0M-$6.0M
0.0%
-4.2%
N/A
N/A
$4.0M-$6.0M
1
2
0
0
$6.0M-$8.0M
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
$6.0M-$8.0M
0
0
0
0
$8.0M-$15.0M
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
$8.0M-$15.0M
0
0
0
0
$15.0M+
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
$15.0M+
0
0
0
0
-6.9%
-6.1%
-5.4%
-4.5%
Total
15
24
19
7
Total
JESSICA CANNING 831.238.5535 jessica@canningproperties.com CalBRE#01920034
MIKE CANNING 831.596.1171 mike@mikecanning.com CalBRE#01004964
NICHOLAS CANNING 831.241.4458 nicholas@canningproperties.com CalBRE#01959355