MONTEREY PENINSULA
Market Gains Traction in 2024
4Q 2024 | Market Update
The market notched a slight increase in 2024 with 583 deals closing, up about 1.5% from last year when we saw 574 deals close in Carmel, Pebble Beach, Carmel Highlands, Carmel Valley, Pacific Grove and Monterey. As buyers have undoubtedly felt, the tight inventory is keeping prices high, which has resulted in a strong total $ invested in this area this year: $1.56B in 2024, a 8% jump from the $1.44B in 2023. This is particularly noteworthy as it highlights a significant market shift in this area when you compare it to before COVID. In 2018 there were 837 deals that closed for $1.624B, which is a 27% drop in activity but the same overall investment. Most economists predict an increase in inventory in 2025 of about 11%, which at first blush will feel like a great relief to buyers, but if that does translate to our area, that would only result in about 3 new listings in the Rectangle and about 6 in all of Pebble Beach. As such, we’re predicting more of the same in this area next year, where the sales process will likely take a bit longer (than sellers hope) but prices should continue to hold steady and even climb a bit as we work our way into 2025.
Deal-flow slowed considerably this quarter, with just 139 closed escrows, down from 157 last quarter. Monterey closed the most deals this quarter, with 30 escrows closing for $33.16M. Pebble Beach had a decent quarter with 34 deals closing for just over $108.6M, which is down from last quarter but almost double over 4Q23. Pacific Grove slowed to 29 deals closing for $47M, mostly due to rising interest rates. Downtown Carmel had just 24 deals close this quarter for $108.21M, capped by an $18M deal that closed on Scenic as demand continues to be strong for the top of the market. The Carmel Highlands were a bright spot this quarter with 12 deals closing for almost $48M, more than double what we saw in the third quarter as demand remains particularly strong for ocean view properties. Quail Lodge continued its strong momentum with 5 deals closing for $19.6M. Carmel Valley Ranch had 2 sales and the Preserve had 3 deals close this quarter, totaling $3.4M and $19.43M respectively.
While prices are staying relatively high overall, sellers are having to negotiate more than in previous years. The average discount off list price was 3% this quarter, with Carmel having to come over 6% off list. Median sales prices held steady $1.8M this quarter, compared to $1.81M last quarter. This is still good news for sellers as it’s over double what we saw a decade ago. Given the tight inventory levels, we anticipate pricing holding steady and climbing a bit next year as more buyers return to the market.
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Quarterly Sales by Region
Median Sales Price ($M)
Historic Sales Averages by Price Range
Carmel
$108.2
Pebble Beach
“ Carmel slowed to its slowest pace in well over a decade this quarter with just 24 deals closing for a total of $108.21M, down from the 38 deals that closed for $140M last quarter. It took considerable movement on the sellers’ part to negotiate with buyers, as the discount off list jumped to 6% this quarter. Demand continues to be strong for oversized houses and ocean views, with the median sales price jumping up to $3.75M this quarter, compared to $2.5M in 4Q23, with those listings also moving faster.”
“After one of the slowest starts on record, the Pebble Beach market gained momentum throughout 2024 and closed the year with a quarterly high of 34 units sold - bringing the annual total to 92 sales. Reflecting on the sales in 2024, a noteworthy trend for Sellers has emerged: pricing your listing at market value is key to selling quickly and close to list price. For Buyers, inventory levels remain razor thin (31 active), so be prepared to act quickly and be competitive with your offers.”
4Q Region Overview
“With 24 sales in 2024 (12 closing in the 4th quarter) the Highlands market saw a healthy rebound in deal flow despite the low inventory levels throughout the year. This robust demand pushed median values up 30% from 4Q23. Interestingly, nearly 50% of 4th quarter buyers were either local or from the Bay Area with the next largest contingent coming from Southern California. Looking ahead to 2025, I anticipate the coveted Highlands’ oceanfront sub-market to gain momentum.”
Carmel Highlands
$47.5 m
12
Quail Lodge / Meadows
$19.6 m
5
“ Quail Lodge was one of the few areas to post a gain this quarter, with 5 deals closing for a combined $19.6M. Demand continues to be strong for the single level, sunny living that Quail provides, as we have more buyers circling looking for off market options. And sellers are getting their premium numbers: median sales price is $3.825M this quarter, up 23% from this time last year. It has even surpassed Pebble Beach and downtown Carmel for the median sales price, which is a remarkable ascent from 10 years ago when the median sales price was just $1.34M.”
4Q Region Overview
“The 4th quarter in The Preserve mirrored the number of home sales in the 3rd quarter with 3 home sales each. There were a total of 2 home sales in 2023, and 9 in 2024, and the sales price per sq.ft. increased from $1,257/sq.ft. to $1,438/sq.ft., a 14+% increase in value. Land sales went from 2 sales in 3Q24 to none in 4Q24. There are currently 31 lots available for sale, and one in escrow set to close in the first week of 2025, in which we represent both the buyer and seller.”
Santa Lucia Preserve
Carmel Valley Ranch
“4Q24 marked the slowest quarter in sales in two years in Carmel Valley Ranch , with only 2 homes sold, 10484 Fairway Lane and 9503 Adler Court. QoQ, the average days on market decreased by 49% to 74 days, and the median sales price stood at $1.7M. This seasonal slowdown aligns with the typical decline in transaction volume during the winter months. Currently, there are 5 active listings and we are optimistic about an uptick in activity as we move into 2025!”
2024 Region Overview
“We were honored to represent the Charles family on the sale of their home at 11 Alta Madera this year. This was our 5th home sale in Teháma over the past 6 years, representing 71% of sales that have closed in Tehama. We’re getting strong traction at our listing at 15 Alta Madera and believe this community is perfectly positioned for continued growth over the next several years. Teháma combines the best security, proximity and natural setting this area has to offer and we’re honored to represent our clients in this remarkable community.”
“ Monterra had 12 strong sales this year for a combined $38.9M.
Median home sales prices crested $5M in Monterra, above those seen in Carmel and Pebble Beach as this community combines the strength of natural beauty and proximity, with new construction and fresh inventory. We anticipate 2025 to be strong for Monterra as there continues to be pent up demand for move-in ready homes with views.”
4Q Region Overview
“The 5 sales in each Q3 and Q4 of 2024 suggests stable activity toward the end of the year. In 2024, New Monterey experienced an increase in home sales and average price per square foot compared to 2023. 28 homes were sold in 2024, up from 21 homes in 2023. The average price per sq ft rose to $908 in 2024, compared to $885 in 2023. These metrics indicate a growing demand for homes in New Monterey.”
“Monterey’s inventory remained steady throughout 2024 – closing the year with 44 active listings, up from 33 in 4Q23. And while December recorded just nine sales, the Monterey market saw strong movement throughout the bulk of the year (215 homes sales in 2024 vs. 189 in 2023). With days on market trending up amidst healthy inventory levels, strategic pricing will be the catalyst to maintaining a balanced market as we head into 2025.”
Monterey
4Q Region Overview
“ Pacific Grove’s real estate market experienced a slowdown in 4Q24, with fewer properties changing hands and a reduced overall sales pace compared to both 3Q and the same period last year. While homes took longer to sell in 4Q, the market demonstrated resilience. The median sales price saw only a slight decrease compared to the previous year, reflecting the market’s overall stability. Buyers’ mantra for 2025 – Be Prepared!”
2024 Significant Sales
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