1Q21 Market Update
Mike Canning
Jessica Canning
Nic Canning
DRE#01004964 831.596.1171 mike@mikecanning.com
DRE# 01920034 831.238.5535 jessica@canningproperties.com
DRE# 01959355 831.241.4458 nic@canningproperties.com
Ellen Krausse
Brian Keck
Dave Reese
DRE# 02046046 831.204.2204 ellen@canningproperties.com
DRE# 02070480 831.238.8730 brian@canningproperties.com
DRE# 02121762 831.272.2172 dave@canningproperties.com
Overview The market tapered a bit in the first quarter across Pebble Beach, Carmel, the Carmel Highlands, Preserve and Quail. We’re starting to see the market normalize again toward historic levels, with 119 deals closing this quarter, which is down 29% from last quarter but still 63% higher than 1Q20. The thrust of the demand we saw during the summer last year was in of second home purchases, but we’re increasingly seeing full time buyers look to this market, across all of the regions we track. These buyers continue to face tight inventory levels, which is keeping prices high; $378M was invested this quarter, which was down 28% from last quarter ($525M) but up 116% from 1Q20 levels. This continued demand has driven the median sales price across all regions up to $2.2M, which is 5% over last year but almost double that of 2011. The top of the market continues to deliver, with 15 deals closing north of $6M, which matches last quarter but 5 times that of 1Q20 (3). Pebble continues to dominate this price bracket, representing 9 of the 15 sales this quarter, with Carmel closing 3, the Highlands getting 2 and the Preserve closing 1. The strength of the ocean view continues to be the driving factor in prices, with median sales price nearly 50% higher for ocean view properties, versus non-ocean view properties. As of April 1st, Prop 19 became effective, which has implications for both legacy properties and transferability of tax basis. We had several clients work pre-emptively on their trust planning. If you have questions about this please feel free to reach out. At this time, we don’t anticipate any material shifts in demand or inventory levels for the next 6 months. We expect to see continued strong demand in this area for both primary and secondary homes, confronted by tight inventory levels throughout the area.
Market Overview Pebble Beach Carmel Carmel Highlands Quail Lodge / Quail Meadows Santa Lucia Preserve
4-5 6-8 9-11 12-14 15-17 18-20
Featured Property: Mira Mare PerfectionInPebble.com
Market Insight All Regions
1Q2021 Sales by Price Range
119
Total Sales
Median Sales Price ($M) 1Q2021
Area
YoY% Change
$2.13
Carmel
-3%
$3.09
Carmel Highlands
-41%
$2.43
Pebble Beach
76%
$1.68
Quail
20%
$4.58
Preserve
8%
$2.20
Overall
17%
$8M+
6
$6M - $8M
9
$4M - $6M
11
$3M - $4M
15
$2.5M - $3M
12
$2M - $2.5M
10
$1.5M - $2M
26
$1M - $1.5M
19
<$1M
11
Total Annual Sales
Average Sales Price ($M) 1Q2021
Area
YoY % Change
$2.66
Carmel
1%
$3.73
Carmel Highlands
-23%
$3.92
Pebble Beach
122%
$1.82
Quail
-8%
$4.22
Preserve
0%
$3.18
Overall
31%
4 | Market Overview
Information believed to be reliable as obtained from the Monterey County Association of Realtors database and known off market transactions.
1Q2021 Update All Regions
# of Sales
Quarterly Sales by Region
Carmel
Sales Price Range
Carmel Highlands
Pebble Beach
4Q19-1Q20 4Q20-1Q21
Preserve
Quail
10 Year Ave. 10 Year Ave. 1Q Sales 4Q & 1Q Sales
1Q20
1Q21
<$1.0M
9
11
25
24
20
41
$1.0M-$1.5M
20
19
44
51
22
44
$1.5M-$2.0M
9
26
23
57
14
33
$2.0M-$2.5M
7
10
23
25
9
19
$2.5M-$3.0M
6
12
11
33
6
13
$3.0M-$4.0M
8
15
12
31
8
16
$4.0M-$6.0M
11
11
22
35
5
13
$6.0M-$8.0M
3
9
7
16
3
6
$8M+
0
6
3
14
2
5
Total Sales
73
119
170
286
90
190
Market Overview | 5
Pebble Beach Market Overview
Over one year into the pandemic, the Pebble Beach market has seen a dramatic shift in its market dynamics with urbanites continuing to seek shelter in Pebble’s rural and coastal settings. This new wave of demand has pushed inventory levels to all-time lows, raised median sales prices across the board and tightened negotiations to the narrowest discounts seen in years. With over $200M invested in 51 sales, the first quarter continued it's stretch of all-time records for both total dollar volume and transactions – well outpacing its 1Q averages ($81M & 33 sales respectively). More impressively, Pebble’s market attained this milestone amidst its tightest inventory levels in the last 25 years (averaging 30-35 listings throughout 1Q). The 34 listings currently on the market represent a staggering -52% YoY drop in active listings from 1Q20. As the market grew more competitive over the past three quarters, the average days on market shrunk to 80 days for Central Pebble (-85% YoY), 33 days in the MPCC territory (-72% YoY) and just 6.2 days for the Upper Forest (-95% YoY). With demand steadily outpacing supply – often creating multiple offer scenarios - median sales prices rose dramatically from 1Q20 with Central Pebble Beach climbing 83% YoY, MPCC up 49% and the Upper Forest up 41%. The available listings heading into 2Q are stacked at the top price points of Pebble’s market with nearly half of all active listings offered above $8M. Based on 1Q’s activity, the absorption rate for the top of the market would be 31%, which is still considered a seller’s market (15% or above) although softer than the lower price points. Conversely, the $2M-and-below market has just 2 active listings, bringing its projected absorption rate to 90%. 2Q’s outlook is forecasting similar market dynamics to 1Q with 14 deals already under contract (totaling $68M in list prices), which is on pace to eclipse 2Q total averages. With our peak selling season just around the corner, we’ll be closely watching how this supply-demand imbalance continues to impact Pebble's market.
Nic Canning Pebble Specialist
6
Featured Property Photo: 1139 Portola Road, Pebble Beach 1139PortolaRoad.com
1Q2021 Update Pebble Beach
1Q2021 Sales by Price Range 5 4 5 6 5 5 11 8 2
$8M+ $6M - $8M $4M - $6M $3M - $4M $2.5M - $3M $2M - $2.5M $1.5M - $2M $1M - $1.5M <$1M
51 Total Sales
$200M Total Dollar Volume
Get Smart
1Q2021 Snapshot
51 Units Sold in 1Q2021
59 Average Days on Market
17% decrease from 4Q20
528% increase from 1Q20
25% decrease from 4Q20
183% increase from 1Q20
13% increase from 4Q20
63% decrease from 1Q20
1Q2021 Top Pebble Beach Sales 1520 Cypress Drive 1145 17 Mile Drive 3208 Stillwater Lane 1075 Marcheta Lane 3290 Macomber Drive 3340 Ondulado Road 3349 17 Mile Drive 3125 17 Mile Drive 1431 Viscaino Road
$21,000,000 $15,800,000 $12,371,250 $9,850,000 $9,200,000 $7,950,000 $7,100,000 $6,600,000 $6,500,000
3179 Palmero Way 3120 Flavin Lane 1427 Lisbon Lane 1421 Lisbon Lane 1552 Riata Road 1427 Riata Road 1567 Griffin Road 1433 Libson Lane 1164 Arroyo Drive
Indicates a Canning Properties Group Sale
$5,950,000 $5,500,000 $4,750,000 $4,749,000 $4,575,000 $3,928,000 $3,900,000 $3,700,000 $3,700,000
Pebble Beach | 7
# of Sales
Quarterly Sales by Region
Central Pebble Beach
-2.2%
Average % off list price 1Q2021 Sales
Median Home Sales Price ($M)
MPCC
Upper Forest
t igh t ly e m e r t ain ex m e r s n market. io g in lv o v Negot iat t i t ive e e p m o c in this Average Home Sales Price ($M)
Quarter
Median
YoY % Change
Quarter
Average
YoY % Change
1Q2021
$2.43
76%
1Q2021
$3.92
122%
4Q2020
$2.02
7%
4Q2020
$3.53
5%
3Q2020
$2.10
-9%
3Q2020
$3.60
15%
2Q2020
$3.10
42%
2Q2020
$4.24
21%
1Q2020
$1.38
13%
1Q2020
$1.77
-27%
8 | Pebble Beach
Carmel
Market Overview As inventory receded entering into the new year, deal flow for the prime parts of Carmel slowed from its torrid pace in the second half of 2020. With $122.3M invested across 46 sales, Carmel fell 39% and 33% in both dollar volume and transactions from 4Q20. However, 1Q21 edged out 1Q20 by 22% and 21% in both categories – a signal that the market remains relatively active in 2021 despite very low inventory. Interestingly, median sales prices dipped from the previous quarter, to 2.13 from 2.31 in the last quarter. This is due to a higher volume of deals in the lower price points paired with limited available inventory at the top of Carmel’s market. Even still, the values for these sub-markets have risen well above this same time last year – averaging an impressive 24% YoY increase. The majority of the first quarter’s investments occurred in the Golden Rectangle ($44.54M), which represented 36% of all 1Q deal flow and a 55% rise YoY from its 1Q20 total. Northwest Carmel came in second, tallying up 21% of total dollar volume for 1Q, while Hatton Fields trailed the group – representing only 9% of the first quarter’s total investments. The rate at which active listings entered contract tightened to an all-time low of 16.3 Ave DOM, making it one of the most competitive markets for buyers in recent memory. To put this deal velocity into perspective, the rolling 10-year benchmark for Carmel’s average DOM is 106.79. Looking ahead to the second quarter, we anticipate that Carmel’s market will continue favoring sellers - especially for move-in ready or oceanview homes. With 22 deals already under contract ($71M in combined listing prices) as we enter 2Q, Carmel’s market is poised to have yet another above-average quarter. We’ll be closely watching the imbalance of supply and demand for Carmel’s market to see if any newer trends begin to formulate in 2021.
Jess Canning Carmel Specialist
Featured Property Photo : 26262 Isabella Ave 26262Isabella.com
9
1Q2021 Update Carmel
1Q2021 Sales by Price Range $8M+ $6M - $8M $4M - $6M $3M - $4M $2.5M - $3M $2M - $2.5M $1.5M - $2M $1M - $1.5M <$1M
46 Total Sales
$122M
Total Dollar Volume
Get Smart
46
Units Sold in 1Q2021
1Q2021 Snapshot
40 Average Days on Market
1 2 4 7 6 4 11 7 4
39% decrease from 4Q20
22% increase from 1Q20
33% decrease from 4Q20
21% increase from 1Q20
10% decrease from 4Q20
63% decrease from 1Q20
1Q2021 Top Carmel Sales N Corner of Scenic & 10th Camino Real 4SW of Ocean 25633 Shafter Way Camino Real 3NE of Ocean 2436 Bay View Avenue Scenic 3SW of Ocean
10 | Carmel
$8,975,000 $7,250,000 $6,000,000 $5,700,000 $5,250,000 $5,200,000
2385 Stewart Way 12th 2SW of Carmelo Vizcaino 11SW Mountain View Dolores & 7th Carmelo 4NW of 8th 26319 Scenic Road
Indicates a Canning Properties Group Sale
$4,650000 $3,600,000 $3,435,000 $3,406,500 $3,150,000 $3,100,000
# of Sales
Quarterly Sales by Region
Carmel Point Northeast Carmel
Golden Rectangle Northwest Carmel
0.2%
Average % off list price 1Q2021 Sales
Median Home Sales Price ($M)
Hatton Fields Southeast Carmel
e that d a c e d a r e v o First t ime in el house is m r a C e g a r e v the a list price. e v o b a g in s lo c
Average Home Sales Price ($M)
Quarter
Median
YoY % Change
Quarter
Average
YoY % Change
1Q2021
$2.13
-3%
1Q2021
$2.66
1%
4Q2020
$2.31
38%
4Q2020
$2.92
41%
3Q2020
$2.10
27%
3Q2020
$2.56
32%
2Q2020
$1.70
-17%
2Q2020
$1.98
-15%
1Q2020
$2.20
3%
1Q2020
$2.63
11%
Carmel | 11
Carmel Highlands Market Overview
The 1st quarter of 2021 slowed down considerably in the Carmel Highlands and Carmel Meadows markets. Coming off the record-setting year of 2020 in which we saw 40 sales in the last 2 quarters alone, the numbers could seem to indicate that the market is topping off. But, historically speaking, this has still been an above average quarter in these two markets. Interest in the Meadows and Highlands has not dropped off. Rather, the 6 sales in the first quarter of 2021 is owing to the scarcity of available properties on the market right now. In fact, of the 6 properties that sold since the beginning of the year only 2 were below $3M, with a median sales price of $3.09M, which is a 55% increase over the 10-year median sales price, $1.99M. We were saying it last year, and we will say it again at this time: This is likely the best market for listing your home in over a decade. Previously, when bringing your property to market, you were likely competing with a number of other comparable properties. But right now, every property that is available has the unique advantage of virtually standing alone as one of the few offerings available to buyers seeking out these areas. The market continues to demand ocean views right now, which is a natural strength for the Highlands. As such, we anticipate this return to normalized activity continuing through 2021.
Dave Reese Highlands Specialist
12
Featured Property Photo: 166 Spindrift Road, Carmel Highlands 166Spindrift.com
1Q2021 Update Carmel Highlands
1Q2021 Sales by Price Range 0 2 0 1 1 0 1 1 0
$8M+ $6M - $8M $4M - $6M $3M - $4M $2.5M - $3M $2M - $2.5M $1.5M - $2M $1M - $1.5M <$1M
6 Total Sales
$22.38M Total Dollar Volume
Get Smart
1Q2021 Snapshot
6
Units Sold in 1Q2021
74
Average Days on Market
61% decrease from 4Q20
54% increase from 1Q20
65% decrease from 4Q20
100% increase from 1Q20
9% increase from 4Q20
15% increase from 1Q20
1Q2021 Top Carmel Highlands Sales 2715 Ribera Road 54 Yankee Point Drive 77 Yankee Point Drive 27030 Meadow Drive 3025 Ribera Road 12 Yankee Point Drive
$7,150,000 $6,000,000 $3,200,000 $2,975,000 $1,585,000 $1,470,000
Carmel Highlands | 13
Quarterly Sales by Region Carmel Meadows
# of Sales
Carmel Highlands
-4.1%
Average % off list price 1Q2021 Sales
Median Home Sales Price ($M)
lly st rong a ic r o t is h rned to parent ly Sales ret u p a e g r u s the 2020 h it w , ls e lev past us.
Average Home Sales Price ($M)
Quarter
Median
YoY % Change
Quarter
Average
YoY % Change
1Q2021
$3.09
-41%
1Q2021
$3.73
-23%
4Q2020
$2.83
122%
4Q2020
$3.39
39%
3Q2020
$1.90
27%
3Q2020
$2.93
39%
2Q2020
$6.10
158%
2Q2020
$5.24
104%
1Q2020
$5.20
181%
1Q2020
$4.86
163%
14 | Carmel Highlands
Quail Lodge/ Meadows Market Overview
Quail Lodge was on par with 3 sales in the first quarter, posting just over $5.46m in the sub-region. 1Q21 saw a decrease in total dollars sold from a very strong 4Q20 (down 27.6%), but was 140% higher than the same quarter a year ago and up 20% compared to its 10-year average. With low inventory and demand high, discounts off list prices significantly shrunk to an average of 2.59% off list price, showing sustained strength for sellers. With one home in escrow, only one on the market, and a narrowing average days on market (94 days), we anticipate prices to rise in 2Q as well (up 40% from it 10-year average). We continue to see strong demand for single-level homes with an emphasis on primary residences in good school districts that are close proximity to amenities, which the Quail market continues to deliver. Quail Meadows did not record a sale in the first quarter, but two homes are in contract in January and expected to close in April. We have one home under contract at 5465 Quail Meadows Dr, listed just over $4m, getting multiple offers. Additionally, there are two lots available on the market on Quail Way and Quail Meadows Dr, with respective list prices of $1.77m and $1.45m. Historically, 3 homes sell per year, averaging $3.8m with days on market near 178 and discounts just under 7%. But, with low inventory, heightened demand for great weather and schools, more space/privacy, buyers are going to have to work harder to find what they’re looking for.
Brian Keck Preserve Specialist
Featured Property Photo: 7010 Valley Greens Circle 7010ValleyGreens.com
15
1Q2021 Update Quail Lodge/Meadows
1Q2021 Sales by Price Range 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0
$8M+ $6M - $8M $4M - $6M $3M - $4M $2.5M - $3M $2M - $2.5M $1.5M - $2M $1M - $1.5M <$1M
3 Total Sales
$5.46M
Total Dollar Volume
Get Smart
1Q2021 Snapshot
3
Units Sold in 1Q2021
64% decrease from 4Q20
8% decrease from 1Q20
57% decrease from 4Q20
Even from 1Q20
13% decrease from 4Q20
44% decrease from 1Q20
94
Average Days on Market
1Q2021 Quail Lodge/ Meadows Sales 7041 Valley Greens Circle 8044 Poplar Lane 8007 River Place
16 | Quail Lodge / Meadows
$2,205,000 $1,682,500 $1,576,277
Quarterly Sales by Region Quail Meadows
# of Sales
Quail Lodge
-2.6%
Average % off list price 1Q2021 Sales
Median Home Sales Price ($M)
demand in g n o r t s g in We're see s as the w o d a e M il e & Qua Quail Lodg m the o r f n io t a r mig u es . Bay Cont in Average Home Sales Price ($M)
Quarter
Median
YoY % Change
Quarter
Average
YoY % Change
1Q2021
$1.68
20%
1Q2021
$1.82
-8%
4Q2020
$2.03
-38%
4Q2020
$2.17
-38%
3Q2020
$2.15
126%
3Q2020
$2.44
51%
2Q2020
$1.32
-34%
2Q2020
$1.42
-43%
1Q2020
$1.40
-24%
1Q2020
$1.98
7%
Quail Lodge / Meadows | 17
The Preserve Market Overview
It’s no surprise that The Preserve continued its record-breaking trend in the first quarter as its private and vast protected open-spaces paired with world-class amenities remain in high demand. Even with scarce home and Club membership inventory, 1Q posted a strong and balanced quarter (4 homes and 10 homesites sales). These trends are propelled by a blend of buyers seeking larger homes and acreage to enjoy now and others beginning to plan for their future homesteads. Over $28.8m was invested in Q1 in the Community, broken out: $20.54m sold in homes and $8.3m sold in homesites, representing an increase of 28% year over year, an increase of 175% quarter over quarter and up 343% compared to its 10-year average. With finished home inventory low (2) and a new high-water mark sale at $6.93m (spanning last 10 years), the median sales price rose significantly to $5.3m. This steady activity compressed the market’s average days on market to 111 days and tilted bargaining power further in the sellers’ favor. Vacant land sales have continued to benefit from low housing inventory with units sold up 400% compared to its 10-year average but days on market remain high at 331 and discounts grew a bit to an average of 14% off list price. We have also seen a large variance in price from the top of the market in Q1 at $1.6m to the bottom at $280k, averaging $829k, just below its historical average, resulting in a diverse buyer’s profile. We anticipate bargaining power to remain in favor of sellers with high demand and low housing inventory heading into 2Q. Strong sales velocity in vacant land continues with no signs of slowing as 7 lots are currently in escrow and new inventory continues to become available (37 actively listed lots), resulting in accurately priced inventory selling first. Our Team is honored once again to be the top seller in the first quarter at over $19m, having represented at least one side in 3 of 4 home sales and in 5 of 10 homesite sales. Be on the lookout for three homes we have coming soon on Vasquez Trail, Rancho San Carlos and Arroyo Sequoia. Reach out to Brian for more information on either property or to schedule a time to tour the beautiful homes.
Brian Keck Peserve Specialist
18
Featured Property Photo: 6 Vasquez Trail 6Vasquez.com
1Q2021 Update Preserve
1Q2021 Sales by Price Range 0 1 2 1 0 0 1 3 6
$8M+ $6M - $8M $4M - $6M $3M - $4M $2.5M - $3M $2M - $2.5M $1.5M - $2M $1M - $1.5M <$1M
14 Total Sales
$28.2M
Total Dollar Volume
Get Smart
1Q2021 Snapshot
14
Units Sold in 1Q2021
245
Average Days on Market
175% increase from 4Q20
28% increase from 1Q20
133% increase from 4Q20
27% increase from 1Q20
35% increase from 4Q20
41% increase from 1Q20
1Q2021 Top Preserve Sales
15 Black Mountain Trail $6,930,000 35 Rancho San Carlos Road $5,950,000 1 Mesa Trail $4,575,000 5 Red Tail Trace $3,080,000 35 Pronghorn Run $1,600,000 13 Cantera Run $1,390,000 33 Potrero Trail $1,200,000
89 Chamisal Pass 70 Chamisal Pass 2 Via Vaquera 34222 Robinson Canyon Road 8 San Clemente Trail 14 Arroyo Sequoia
$1,000,000 $900,000 $575,000 $425,000 $300,000 $280,000
Indicates a Canning Properties Group Sale
Santa Lucia Preserve | 19
Quarterly Sales Preserve Houses
# of Sales
Preserve Lots
Lots | -13.8% Houses | -9.0% Average % off list price 1Q2021 Sales
Median Home Sales Price ($M)
emand d d e in ta s u s g We're seein s in the e s u o h d n a ts for both lo Preserve.
Average Home Sales Price ($M)
Quarter
Median
YoY % Change
Quarter
Average
YoY % Change
1Q2021
$4.58
8%
1Q2021
$4.22
0%
4Q2020
$3.78
11%
4Q2020
$3.78
11%
3Q2020
$4.30
N/A
3Q2020
$4.57
N/A
2Q2020
$3.70
-9%
2Q2020
$3.70
-9%
1Q2020
$4.25
8%
1Q2020
$4.22
7%
20 | Santa Lucia Preserve
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MIKE CANNING, JESSICA CANNING, NIC CANNING, ELLEN KRAUSSE, BRIAN KECK & DAVE REESE 831.238.5535
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