2Q22 Market Update
Mike Canning
DRE#01004964 831.596.1171 mike@mikecanning.com
Ellen Armstrong
Jessica Canning
DRE# 01920034 831.238.5535 jessica@canningproperties.com
Brian Keck
Nic Canning
DRE# 01959355 831.241.4458 nic@canningproperties.com
Dave Reese
DRE# 02046046 831.204.2204 ellen@canningproperties.com
DRE# 02070480 831.238.8730 brian@canningproperties.com
DRE# 02121762 831.272.2172 dave@canningproperties.com
Kelly Savukinas
Paige Colijn
Caroline Garcia
DRE# 02053030 831.238.8443 kelly@canningproperties.com
DRE# 02168140 831.710.1655 paige@canningproperties.com
717.318.8003 caroline@canningproperties.com
Overview As pre di cted last quarte r, buye rs have beg un to pul l back from the l eve l s we saw ove r t he past t wo years, reset t ing t hei r expe ctati ons back to historic norms. Howeve r, t he big ge st c ha l l e nge we’re seeing right now is t hat t he re is a clear di s c onne ct bet wee n buye r and sel le r inte rpret at ions of the c u rre nt market. Sel le rs st il l believe t hey ’l l get numbe rs we s aw i n the b e ginning of t he year and buye rs are ove rest imati n g the ma rket c orrect ion right now, as we’re not seeing prices fa l l pre c i pi tously. Nor do we ant icipate a major correct ion i n looki n g at the dat a. We ant icipate t hat t his gap in ex pect at ions wi l l c onti nu e to stretch out days on market t hrough 2022 an d ca u s e pr i c e s to level off. The re i s a lot of news about recession and market corre cti on s , s o i t’s a ppropriate to look at similar market c ycles in thi s a re a whe n a pproaching an investme nt decision. D ue to our s u bsta n ti a l de pe nde nc y on tech money from t he B ay Area, t he most li ke ly c ompa ra ble market correct ion was in t he 2001 -2002 dot- com b u st, whe n we saw t he drop - off in sales last about 2 -3 q u a r te r s , re pre s e nting a 43% drop in act ivit y. Howeve r, t he media n s a le s pr i c e i n 2001 dropped just 1 3%, increasing in 2002 by 7% a n d c onti nu i ng to increase for t he nex t 5 years. So if t he re i s a wi ndow i t ’s likely to be a brief one, wit h values bounci n g ba ck wi thi n 1. 5 -2 years. Addit ional ly, t he price correct ion doe s n ’t ne c e s s a r i ly work it s way up t he food chain. In correct ion ye a r s , we s aw a n immediate drop - off of available pre mium prod u ct; the re we re only 2 sales on each of t he fol lowing in 2001 : S ce n i c, MP C C f ront line, Pebble B each G olf front and O ceanfron t. Nothi ng on t he ocean or golf front in Pebble sold in 200 9. O n e c a n c onc lude t hat sel le rs at t he top of t he market do not n e e d to s e l l a nd can afford to wait out te mporary declines to s e l l pre mi u m prope rt ies. Addi ti onal ly, t he highe r inte rest rates have made it more expe ns ive for sel le rs to move, so we also ant icipate restr i cte d i nve ntor y at t he bot tom of t he market t hrough t he e nd of thi s ye a r, and hold unt il prices can climb e nough for it to be wor thwhile financial ly for sel le rs to move. Whe n t hey d o sta r t c omi ng to t he market , t he increased supply wil l be met wi th m ore b u ye r s e n te ring t he market , driving strong price appreci ati on sta r ti ng i n 2023 and gaining speed t he nex t few years. For exa mpl e, prices jumped 24 % year ove r year for t wo year s stra i ght i n 20 04 and 2005, and it ’s likely we’l l see t hat kind of sp i ke a ga i n . At the e nd of t he day, it ’s helpful to re me mbe r t hat market c ycle s a re a s i gn of a healt hy market and looking at past c ycle s ca n he lp pos i ti on you toward long te rm success. E ach correct io n i s a li t tle di ffe re nt, but as one clie nt told me a lit t le while ago, “I ’d rathe r watc h the market c ycle from Carmel B each t han my co m p u te r s c re e n at home. ” I couldn’t ag ree more. Cover Home: 1475 Padre Lane, Pebble Beach 1475PadreLane.com
- Jessica Ca n n i n g
Market Insight All Regions
2Q2022 Sales by Price Range
Total Sales
Median Sales Price ($M) 2Q2022
Area
YoY % Change
$2.9
Carmel
16%
$5.20
Carmel Highlands
-29%
$3.14
Pebble Beach
-10%
$3.65
Quail
52%
$5.45
Preserve
44%
$1.39
Pacific Grove
40%
$1.60
Carmel Valley Ranch
-14%
$2.30
Overall
0%
10
$6M - $8M
5
$4M - $6M
11
$3M - $4M
23
$2.5M - $3M
9
$2M - $2.5M
21
$1.5M - $2M
21
$1M - $1.5M
27
<$1M
15
Total Annual Sales
*
142
$8M+
Average Sales Price ($M) 2Q2022
Area
YoY % Change
$3.14
Carmel
8%
$5.50
Carmel Highlands
-26%
$5.13
Pebble Beach
12%
$4.53
Quail
116%
$5.45
Preserve
40%
$1.51
Pacific Grove
16%
Information believed to be reliable as obtained from the Monterey County Association of Realtors database and known off market transactions.
$1.63
Carmel Valley Ranch
-10%
*Indicates sales for the first half of 2022
$3.11
Overall
-3%
2Q2022 Update All Regions
# of Sales
Quarterly Sales by Region
Carmel
Carmel Highlands
Pacific Grove Sales Price Range
Pebble Beach
Preserve
Carmel Valley Ranch
Quail
2Q2021
2Q2022
1H 2021
1H 2022
10 Year Ave. 2Q Sales
10 Year Ave. 1H Sales
<$1.0M
35
15
55
25
48
87
$1.0M-$1.5M
35
27
66
49
33
61
$1.5M-$2.0M
26
21
59
41
23
41
$2.0M-$2.5M
17
21
28
36
13
23
$2.5M-$3.0M
20
9
39
26
9
18
$3.0M-$4.0M
19
23
35
43
12
23
$4.0M-$6.0M
18
11
31
24
8
15
$6.0M-$8.0M
6
5
15
13
3
7
$8M+
15
10
21
22
5
8
Total Sales
191
142
349
279
153
283
Pebble Beach Market Overview
The Pebble Beach market concluded the first half of ‘22 on a subdued note with the slowest quarterly activity since the start of the pandemic – posting 24 sales and total investments of $115.2M. These totals represented a -25% slide in deal flow and a -50% dip in dollar volume from 1Q22 and a -55% drop in sales and a -48% cut in investments from this same quarter last year. In retrospect, although the slower deal flow was 36% below 2Q historical averages, dollar volume was up 32% - signaling competitive negotiations throughout the quarter continued to hold home values firm. Median sales prices for the coveted areas of Central Pebble Beach and Monterey Peninsula Country Club rose this quarter to highs of $10M (+20.6% QoQ) and $2.77M (+9.7% QoQ) respectively while the Upper Forest retracted to $775K (-58% QoQ). This anomaly was due to zero available single-family homes in the Upper Forest area and only condos in that region selling above the list prices but below the $1M threshold. The top of Pebble’s market ($10M+) remained active with 5 closed escrows and 2 sales pending while the $7M-$10M price bracket is beginning to saturate - posting zero sales this quarter while representing 32% of active listings. The $2M-$3M (5 sales) and $3M-$4M (4 sales) price brackets posted solid gains – propelled by strong demand for homes under $4M. Interestingly, the $1M-$2M price bracket stalled this quarter (1 sale) but for a unique reason as razor thin inventory levels and strong demand pushed sales in this price bracket up – holding the entry ticket for single-family homes in PB above $2M. Even as inventory levels rose from 16 to 28 actively listed by quarter’s end and the average days on market for actives rose to 111.1, the average days on market for sold properties shrunk from the previous quarter to 28.7 (-30% QoQ). These differing dynamics reflected a combination of pent-up buyer demand in the lower price points and a plateauing of activity in the upper price points where the majority of listings are concentrated. With the various extraneous market influencers like rising interest rates, global supply chain disruptions and a tapering economy, overall buyer sentiment has begun to shift towards a more cautious behavior pattern, which is moving the needle away from a heavily favored sellers’ market that we’ve experienced over the last few years. As we head into the 2nd half of the year, we anticipate the market to continue its mild tapering trend and a rebalancing of negotiations between buyers and sellers.
Nic Canning Pebble Specialist
Featured Property Photo: 3249 17 Mile Drive, Pebble Beach 324917Mile.com
2Q2022 Update Pebble Beach
2Q2022 Sales by Price Range 5 2 2 4 0 5 0 4 2
$8M+ $6M - $8M $4M - $6M $3M - $4M $2.5M - $3M $2M - $2.5M $1.5M - $2M $1M - $1.5M <$1M
24
Total Sales
$115M Total Dollar Volume
Get Smart
24 Units Sold in 2Q2022
2Q2022 Snapshot
34 Average Days on Market
50% decrease from 1Q22
48% decrease from 2Q21
25% decrease from 1Q22
55% decrease from 2Q21
10% decrease from 1Q22
47% decrease from 2Q21
2Q2022 Top Pebble Beach Sales 1145 Spyglass Hill Road 1487 Padre Lane 1605 Sonado Road 3208 Palmero Way 3881 Ronda Road 1522 Riata Road 1471 Riata Road 74 Spanish Bay 49 Spanish Bay Circle
$17,000,000 $12,600,000 $12,000,000 $11,500,000 $10,000,209 $6,200,000 $6,000,000 $5,100,000 $4,288,000
3945 Ronda Road 1049 Rodeo Road 1080 Presidio Road 990 Pioneer Road 3020 Sloat Road 3039 Sloat Road 2806 Forest Lodge Road 3040 Larkin Road 1151 Chaparral Road
Indicates a Canning Properties Group Sale
$3,750,000 $3,150,000 $3,125,000 $3,050,000 $2,495,000 $2,250,000 $2,200,000 $2,075,000 $2,005,000
# of Sales
Quarterly Sales by Region
Central Pebble Beach
+2.24%
Average % off list price 2Q2022 Sales
Median Home Sales Price ($M)
MPCC
Upper Forest
g n i p m u j are s r e y u B d, e c i r p l l at we dy homes. a e r n i e mov Average Home Sales Price ($M)
Quarter
Median
YoY % Change
Quarter
Average
YoY % Change
2Q2022
$3.14
-10%
2Q2022
$5.13
12%
1Q2022
$3.35
22%
1Q2022
$7.65
89%
4Q2021
$2.66
15%
4Q2021
$4.01
9%
3Q2021
$2.93
36%
3Q2021
$4.58
26%
2Q2021
$3.50
11%
2Q2021
$4.59
4%
Carmel
Market Overview Carmel held steady this quarter with 51 sales, which is on par with it's 2Q averages. Demand continues to be clustered in the middle of the market with 16 sales from $3-4M and 16 from $2-3M. We only saw 2 north of $6M as buyers are willing to pay a premium for a premium location but are beginning to push back on anything that seems overpriced and not perfect for their needs. Total investment dropped 9% from last quarter with a total of $160M. This is mostly due to just one sale above $8M (Xanadu, which closed for $13.2M after selling for $7.3M 2 years ago). Northeast Carmel led the pack this quarter with 14 of the 50 sales, followed up by 9 in the Golden Rectangle and Hatton Fields, 7 in Northwest and Southeast Carmel, and just 5 on the Point. For those properties that are well priced, they sold in an average of 14 days for just over list price (1.4% above ask). However, pricing is particularly critical right now as the current active listings have been on the market for an average of 51 days and 11 have had a price reduction. Despite the slowing, the median sales price climbed 11% this quarter to $2.78M, with a pronounced spike in the Golden Rectangle and Carmel Point. So far in 2022, the median sales price on Carmel Point is $4.6M, which is 10% higher than last year and 23% higher than 2020. The Golden Rectangle is flat from last year at $4.05M, but up 30% from 2020. Although both neighborhoods are fantastic, this is likely driven by the larger home sizes on Carmel Point overlapping with strong buyer demand for larger homes due to work from home flexibility and spending more time in larger groups down here. All things considered, demand for a beach house in Carmel continues to be strong and we’re seeing prices - understandably - level off but hold steady. Given the tight inventory levels, I’d anticipate that to continue to be the case through the end of the year.
Jessica Canning Carmel Specialist
Featured Property Photo : NEC of San Antonio & 12th, Carmel-by-the-Sea (Pending) NECSanAntonio12th.com
2Q2022 Update Carmel
2Q2022 Sales by Price Range $8M+ $6M - $8M $4M - $6M $3M - $4M $2.5M - $3M $2M - $2.5M $1.5M - $2M $1M - $1.5M <$1M
51
Total Sales
$160M
Total Dollar Volume
Get Smart
2Q2022 Snapshot
51
Units Sold in 2Q2022
14 Average Days on Market
1 1 5 16 8 8 8 3 1
9% decrease from 1Q22
21% decrease from 2Q21
2% decrease from 1Q22
27% decrease from 2Q21
58% decrease from 1Q22
59% decrease from 2Q21
2Q2022 Top Carmel Sales Scenic 6 SE of Ocean Torres 2 SE of 10th SW Corner Carmelo & 12th 26241 Valley View Avenue 26264 Valley View Avenue 25570 Hatton Road Corner of Scenic & Isabella San Carlos 5SW of 12th 2480 Bay View Avenue
$13,025,000 $6,250,000 $5,905,000 $5,650,000 $5,450,000 $5,050,000 $4,600,000 $3,900,000 $3,895,000
2NW 9th & Lincoln Casanova 3 NE of 11th Monte Verde 1 NW of 5th 3038 Alta Avenue 6th Avenue 2 NE of Santa Rita Casanova 2 SE 11th 26345 Ladera Drive 24300 San Juan Road Forest 6 SW of Ocean
Indicates a Canning Properties Group Sale
$3,850,000 $3,800,000 $3,800,000 $3,635,000 $3,550,000 $3,525,000 $3,500,000 $3,500,000 $3,250,000
# of Sales
Quarterly Sales by Region
Carmel Point Northeast Carmel
Golden Rectangle Northwest Carmel
+1.40% Average % above list price 2Q2022 Sales
Median Home Sales Price ($M)
Hatton Fields Southeast Carmel
listings d e c i r p l l e w These e list. v o b a r o , t a are selling se it's n e s s r e y u b But if the l sit. l i w t i , d e c i r overp Average Home Sales Price ($M)
Quarter
Median
YoY % Change
Quarter
Average
YoY % Change
2Q2022
$2.78
11%
2Q2022
$3.13
7%
1Q2022
$2.76
38%
1Q2022
$3.47
32%
4Q2021
$3.11
42%
4Q2021
$3.61
27%
3Q2021
$2.40
14%
3Q2021
$3.01
20%
2Q2021
$2.50
49%
2Q2021
$2.92
50%
Carmel Highlands Market Overview
The Carmel Highlands and Carmel Meadows had a strong 2nd quarter thanks in part to a break-out quarter for Carmel Meadows. For perspective, there were only 9 sales in the Meadows in the last year and 4 of those came in this last quarter alone. Some of the impressive numbers for last quarter are: •Total Sales: 12 properties compared to 7 this time last year (YoY) and 9 last quarter (QoQ) •Average Sale Price: $5.2M compared to $4M last quarter •Total Dollar Volume: $63M, up 9% from $57.7M last quarter The rarely available offerings of Carmel Meadows seem to be hitting a sweet spot in the market right now with spectacular ocean views, larger homes (than you can get in Carmel), and proximity to town. The average DOM of the 14 properties that are currently for sale (Active) or have just gone into escrow (Contingent) in the Highlands and Meadows is 105 days and rising. This trend indicates that sellers are over-shooting the market and listing too high. Indeed, with no end in sight for the present economic instability, if today’s sellers are not willing to reconsider their asking price, we expect the DOM for actively listed properties to further increase. And yet, overall, the numbers are telling us that buyers are still out there and the demand for the Highlands and Meadows area has not diminished. It is just that buyers are now pushing back, and their hand is strengthening as balance returns to the real estate market.
Dave Reese Highlands Specialist
2Q2022 Update Carmel Highlands
2Q2022 Sales by Price Range 3 2 2 1 0 1 1 2 0
$8M+ $6M - $8M $4M - $6M $3M - $4M $2.5M - $3M $2M - $2.5M $1.5M - $2M $1M - $1.5M <$1M
12
Total Sales
$63M
Total Dollar Volume
Get Smart
2Q2022 Snapshot
12
Units Sold in 2Q2022
79
Average Days on Market
9% increase from 1Q22
41% increase from 2Q21
33% increase from 1Q22
71% increase from 2Q21
572% increase from 1Q22
65% decrease from 2Q21
2Q2022 Top Carmel Highlands Sales 2625 Ribera Road 2625 Ribera Road 243 Highway 1 30530 Aurora Del Mar 2744 Pradera Road 201 Spindrift Road 2863 Cuesta Way 165 Spindrift Road 11 Yankee Point Drive 100 Crest Road 127 Fern Canyon Road 122 Cypress Way
$10,775,000 $10,400,000 $8,071,480 $7,677,777 $6,275,000 $5,200,000 $4,975,000 $3,100,000 $2,200,000 $1,800,000 $1,325,000 $1,230,000
Quarterly Sales by Region Carmel Meadows
# of Sales
Carmel Highlands
+1.53%
Average % off list price 2Q2022 Sales
Median Home Sales Price ($M)
ga n i y a p e r a Buyers e-in v o m r o f m premiu ws. e i v h t i w s e ready hom Average Home Sales Price ($M)
Quarter
Median
YoY % Change
Quarter
Average
YoY % Change
2Q2022
$5.20
-29%
2Q2022
$5.50
-26%
1Q2022
$4.00
30%
1Q2022
$6.42
66%
4Q2021
$3.15
11%
4Q2021
$4.01
14%
3Q2021
$2.58
36%
3Q2021
$2.93
-5%
2Q2021
$7.35
20%
2Q2021
$7.41
41%
Quail Lodge/Meadows Market Overview
Activity in Quail Lodge and Meadows tapered last quarter, back to 3 closed deals - one in Quail Meadows and two in the Lodge area. This is about half historic averages for these areas and down considerably from 1Q21 (13 deals closed). However, with the huge surge of demand and sales over the past 2 years in Quail we did set a new record in Quail Meadows with the sale of 5466 Quail Way, which we closed at $9M. This stunning Charlie Rose designed home had valley views and clean, modern architecture that the market loved. This represents the highest price paid for a property in Quail Meadows to date. The two sales in Quail Lodge included Condo #14, which sold for $925K at the beginning of April and 7064 Valley Greens Circle, which closed for $3.65M and drew multiple offers. It’s also worth noting that all home sales in Quail Lodge this year were above the $2M mark. This is remarkable considering the median sales price for a house in Quail Lodge in 2012 was just $760K. Although it’s time for this market to cycle and prices will inevitably soften, we should know quickly if Quail was fundamentally underpriced a few years ago or if this surge in pricing is just part of the COVID real estate market surge. Given that the Bay Area is increasingly looking at Carmel Valley - rather than just downtown Carmel - as a destination location for vacation homes, I anticipate that for the most part prices will stay strong and hold. But time will tell.
Jessica Canning Carmel Specialist
2Q2022 Update Quail Lodge/Meadows
2Q2022 Sales by Price Range 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1
$8M+ $6M - $8M $4M - $6M $3M - $4M $2.5M - $3M $2M - $2.5M $1.5M - $2M $1M - $1.5M <$1M
3
Total Sales
$13.57M Total Dollar Volume
Get Smart
2Q2022 Snapshot
3
Units Sold in 2Q2022
15% increase from 1Q22
50% decrease from 2Q21
25% decrease from 1Q22
77% decrease from 2Q21
76% decrease from 1Q22
26% decrease from 2Q21
20
Average Days on Market
2Q2022 Quail Lodge & Meadows Sales 5466 Quail Way 7064 Valley Greens Circle 7020 Valley Greens Drive #14
$9,000,000 $3,650,000 $925,000
Indicates a Canning Properties Group Sale
Quarterly Sales by Region Quail Meadows
# of Sales
Quail Lodge
+0.56%
Average % off list price 2Q2022 Sales
Median Home Sales Price ($M)
m o o r g n i t Negotia er h g i h e h t adjusts in ints. price po Average Home Sales Price ($M)
Quarter
Median
YoY % Change
Quarter
Average
YoY % Change
2Q2022
$3.65
52%
2Q2022
$4.53
116%
1Q2022
$3.85
129%
1Q2022
$3.43
89%
4Q2021
$4.60
123%
4Q2021
$4.53
94%
3Q2021
$1.58
-27%
3Q2021
$2.46
1%
2Q2021
$2.40
63%
2Q2021
$2.10
42%
Santa Lucia Preserve Market Overview
The second quarter brought warmer temperatures, wildflowers, golf tournaments, hiking, horse and holiday events to the vibrant Preserve Community. Buyer demand remains strong for its privacy, great weather, extensive amenities and quality homes, leaving limited inventory in a Community of just 141 homes (18 under construction and 40 in the permit process). With only 2 homes and 26 homesites on the market, 2Q22 had 2 homes sales, which is on par with the past years’ average and median home prices of $5.56m have also held steady. Over $11.2m was invested between two homes and one homesite, topping last quarter’s sales by 14.5% but falling well behind the same quarter last year by 62.2%. 4 Via Vaquera sold its first day on the market at its list price and the other home sold quickly off market near ask at $5.7M, showing strong demand for architecturally significant designs with views. Vacant land saw a significant pull back by 96.2% QoQ and 95.9% YoY with only one transaction compared to an average of 8 per quarter during the past year. There are, however, 4 homesites in escrow and showings have been very strong with serious buyers looking for privacy and views. As inventory remains low, buyers will have to be patient for the perfect home to become available or decide to build their own. We are excited to be bringing one of the best homes in the Preserve to market as well as the two best homesites soon! We were honored to represent both of the buyers and sellers of the two home sales this quarter.
Brian Keck Preserve & Carmel Valley Ranch Specialist
Featured Property Photo: 14 San Clemente Trail, Santa Lucia Preserve 14SanClemente.com
2Q2022 Update Preserve
2Q2022 Sales by Price Range 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 1
$8M+ $6M - $8M $4M - $6M $3M - $4M $2.5M - $3M $2M - $2.5M $1.5M - $2M $1M - $1.5M <$1M
3
Total Sales
$11.27M Total Dollar Volume
Get Smart
3
Units Sold in 2Q2022
2Q2022 Snapshot
479
Average Days on Market
15% increase from 1Q22
55% decrease from 2Q21
63% decrease from 1Q22
80% decrease from 2Q21
629% increase from 1Q22
48% increase from 2Q21
2Q2022 Preserve Sales Homes
Off Market Sale 4 Via Vaquera
$5,700,000 24 Pronghorn Run $5,200,000
Indicates a Canning Properties Group Sale
Lots
$375,000
Quarterly Sales Preserve Houses
# of Sales
Preserve Lots
s e m o h r o f y Inventor . remains tight
-4.78% Average % off list price 2Q2022 Sales
Median Home Sales Price ($M)
Average Home Sales Price ($M)
Quarter
Median
YoY % Change
Quarter
Average
YoY % Change
2Q2022
$5.20
38%
2Q2022
$5.45
40%
1Q2022
N/A
-100%
1Q2022
N/A
-100%
4Q2021
$5.43
44%
4Q2021
$5.43
44%
3Q2021
$6.40
49%
3Q2021
$6.28
37%
2Q2021
$3.77
2%
2Q2021
$3.91
6%
Pacific Grove Market Overview
As we finish the second quarter, we are seeing buyers align price and value and learn how their buying power is different than it was 3 months ago. With interest rates steadily increasing, buyers are re-evaluating their price points, which is drawing buyers to the quaint town of Pacific Grove. The coastal cottages and Victorians are ranging from $1M-$6M, giving buyers lots of options to choose from. Pacific Grove continued to see strong growth in 2Q22, with 46 houses sold compared to 1Q22, when 31 houses sold and almost double the 26 that we saw in 2Q21. Like many smaller markets, we're seeing strong price appreciation in PG, up 40% from last year, coming in at $1.39M. We continue to see the trends of low days on market when priced competitively, low inventory and sales price closing higher than list price. Out of the 46 deals closed in 2Q, 36 of them closed at or above asking price. Areas of high sales volume were Forest Grove/Pine Avenue, with 24 houses sold. And the highest priced sale was in the Asilomar area, which went $450K over ask, closing at $3.3M. As we look ahead into the summer season, days on market is lengthening with active listings, giving buyers a chance to make educated decisions on the inventory available. Currently, there are 25 active listings in the Pacific Grove area, and roughly 25% have had price adjustments. Pricing is going to be a very important piece of the puzzle as we see the market ‘normalize’. Sellers will need to be educated on where pricing is going and what buyers are willing to negotiate. And buyers will need to understand the changing market as well, keeping a close eye on inventory and days on market. Fortunately, Pacific Grove is a destination location, with visitors coming to the area, popping into open houses, dining downtown and enjoying the local shops and coastal lifestyle. With the broad range of pricing available to the buyers, it will be interesting to follow the trends and watch the evolving demand in Pacific Grove.
Kelly Savukinas Pacific Grove Specialist
2Q2022 Update Pacific Grove
2Q2022 Sales by Price Range $8M+ $6M - $8M $4M - $6M $3M - $4M $2.5M - $3M $2M - $2.5M $1.5M - $2M $1M - $1.5M <$1M
46
Total Sales
$68.9M
Total Dollar Volume
Get Smart
46
Units Sold in 2Q2022
2Q2022 Snapshot
10
Average Days on Market
0 0 0 1 1 7 10 17 10
34% increase from 1Q22
118% increase from 2Q21
48% increase from 1Q22
84% increase from 2Q21
76% decrease from 1Q22
47% decrease from 2Q21
2Q2022 Top Pacific Grove Sales 543 Asilomar Boulevard 2824 Forest Hill Boulevard 1104 Pico Avenue 215 4th Street 610 Lobos Avenue 915 Ruth Court 1060 Seapalm Avenue 216 1st Street 225 17 Mile Drive
$3,300,000 $2,540,000 $2,400,000 $2,370,000 $2,350,000 $2,335,000 $2,250,000 $2,110,000 $2,100,000
314 7th Street 1060 Jewell Avenue 850 Spruce Avenue 1019 David Avenue 529 17 Mile Drive 508 & 510 Park Street 791 Spruce Avenue 303 Junipero Avenue 1104 Seaview Avenue
$1,917,525 $1,910,000 $1,910,000 $1,900,000 $1,900,000 $1,675,000 $1,625,000 $1,550,000 $1,510,000
# of Sales
Quarterly Sales
Downtown PG
Candy Cane Lane Beach/Asilomar
Washington Park/Pine
Country Club/Forest Hill/Delmonte Park
+4.47%
Average % above list price 2Q2022 Sales
Median Home Sales Price ($M)
ost m e h t f o One s t e k r a m e v competiti right now. a in our are Average Home Sales Price ($M)
Quarter
Median
YoY % Change
Quarter
Average
YoY % Change
2Q2022
$1.39
40%
2Q2022
$1.51
16%
1Q2022
$1.60
31%
1Q2022
$1.70
22%
4Q2021
$1.11
21%
4Q2021
$1.50
32%
3Q2021
$1.27
53%
3Q2021
$1.59
67%
2Q2021
$0.99
23%
2Q2021
$1.31
56%
Carmel Valley Ranch Market Overview
We are increasingly seeing the Bay Area look at Carmel Valley as a retreat and vacation destination, which will benefit Carmel Valley Ranch in the short and long run. Comparable to the rest of the Peninsula, we’re seeing activity normalize this quarter, with 3 sales, which is down from this quarter last year (9 closed) but up from last quarter when just one house sold. We’re also seeing the pace slow down with the average days-on-market stretching to 39 days, up from 4 last quarter and 15 the prior quarter. That being said, this is shifting more in-line with the historic average for the Ranch, which was approximately 30-60 days. The more time on the market is also providing buyers with a little more wiggle room on the price; buyers negotiated approximately 5% off the list price this quarter, as compared to paying 2.5% over ask last quarter. The three sales this quarter included two on Club Place and one up on the Summit on Locust that just closed for $1.995M. Demand continues to be very strong for the Summit, with buyers paying a premium for the additional space, square footage and views in that neighborhood. The two other sales were at 9923 Club Place ($1.6M) and 9802 Club Place ($1.33M). We have seen a steady appreciation of values in the Ranch over the past decade, going from a median sales price of $790K in 2012 up to $1.78M this year. However, it appears that the market is already cycling a bit, with prices falling this year, down a touch from $1.79M last year. Although we anticipate some softening of pricing, Carmel Valley Ranch has consistently been a strong buy and held up well against market cycles, so we anticipate the rebound to be quick. We are pleased to provide this analysis about your community and welcome any questions or feedback about this report. You can expect to receive it every quarter but if you need any further information or would like to discuss how this might impact the value of your home, feel free to reach out anytime.
Brian Keck Preserve & Carmel Valley Ranch Specialist
2Q2022 Update
Carmel Valley Ranch
2Q2022 Sales by Price Range $8M+ $6M - $8M $4M - $6M $3M - $4M $2.5M - $3M $2M - $2.5M $1.5M - $2M $1M - $1.5M <$1M
3
Total Sales
$4.88M
Total Dollar Volume
Get Smart
2Q2022 Snapshot
3
Units Sold in 2Q2022
39
Average Days on Market
99% increase from 1Q22
71% decrease from 2Q21
200% increase from 1Q22
67% decrease from 2Q21
867% increase from 1Q22
17% increase from 2Q21
2Q2022 Carmel Valley Ranch Sales 10720 Locust Court 9923 Club Place Lane 9802 Club Place Lane
0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 0
$1,955,000 $1,600,000 $1,330,000
# of Sales
Quarterly Sales
Carmel Valley Ranch
-5.17%
Average % off list price 2Q2022 Sales
Median Home Sales Price ($M)
to g n i t r a t es r a s e c i r P ous i v e r p m o taper fr yers push u b s a s l e v le back. Average Home Sales Price ($M)
Quarter
Median
YoY % Change
Quarter
Average
YoY % Change
2Q2022
$1.60
-14%
2Q2022
$1.63
-10%
1Q2022
$2.46
63%
1Q2022
$2.46
64%
4Q2021
$1.93
34%
4Q2021
$1.85
17%
3Q2021
$1.84
31%
3Q2021
$1.85
30%
2Q2021
$1.87
29%
2Q2021
$1.82
26%
Canning Properties Group Work with a Team. Work with the Best. CanningProperties.com 831.238.9718
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TEAM NATIONALLY Among Sotheby's International Realty Teams 2020 & 2021
Mike Canning | Nancy Canning | Jessica Canning | Nic Canning | Ellen Armstrong Brian Keck | Dave Reese | Kelly Savukinas | Caroline Garcia | Paige Colijn Team@CanningProperties.com | CanningProperties.com ©Sotheby’s International Realty and the Sotheby’s International Realty logo are registered (or unregistered) service marks used with permission. Operated by Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. Real estate agents affiliated with Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. are independent contractor sales associates and are not employees of Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. SIR DRE License Number:00899496 Mike Canning DRE: 01004964, Jessica Canning DRE: 01920034, Nic Canning DRE: 01959355, Ellen Armstrong DRE:02046046, Brian Keck DRE: 02070480, David Reese: DRE: 02121762, Paige Colijn DRE#02168140 and Kelly Savukinas DRE#02053030.