4Q20 Market Update
Mike Canning
Jessica Canning
Nic Canning
DRE#01004964 831.596.1171 mike@mikecanning.com
DRE# 01920034 831.238.5535 jessica@canningproperties.com
DRE# 01959355 831.241.4458 nic@canningproperties.com
Ellen Krausse
Brian Keck
Dave Reese
DRE# 02046046 831.204.2204 ellen@canningproperties.com
DRE# 02070480 831.238.8730 brian@canningproperties.com
DRE# 02121762 831.272.2172 dave@canningproperties.com
Overview 2020 finished off strongly in Pebble Beach, Carmel, Carmel Highlands, Quail and the Preserve with 167 deals closing in the fourth quarter for $525M, which is the second highest volume on record, behind only the third quarter of 2020. Overall, 2020 was the strongest year in history for this area, bringing in $1.49B in 507 deals, which is a 57% increase in invested dollars over 2019 and almost triple that of 2010 ($437M). Demand shifted from Carmel Valley, which was particularly strong this summer, to Carmel and Pebble this winter. The top of the market proved surprisingly resilient this quarter with 15 sales above $6M, continuing the momentum of the 19 sales in this price bracket that closed in 3Q20. In 2020 there were 45 sales above $8M, which is double that of last year (21) and 5 times the level seen in 2010 (8). The $4-6M bracket was stronger this quarter with 24 sales, the highest ever for that price bracket and 2 more than last quarter. The bottom of the market continued to move, despite tight inventory, with 76 sales under $2M, which is down from 99 last quarter but 41% higher than 4Q19. The combination of tight supply and strong demand has resulted in increasing prices across the board with median sales prices increasing 16% overall this quarter. As such, we’re anticipating more sellers testing the market either through a soft launch on the discreetly available inventory or coming live to MLS. There are some interesting trends we’re tracking in each region, so head to the full report for further detail.
Market Overview Pebble Beach Carmel Carmel Highlands Quail Lodge / Quail Meadows Santa Lucia Preserve
4-5 6-9 10-13 14-17 18-21 22-25
Featured Property: 166 Spindrift Road, Carmel Highlands 166Spindrift.com
Market Insight All Regions
4Q2020 Sales by Price Range
167
Total Sales
Median Sales Price ($M) 4Q2020
Area
YoY% Change
$2.31
Carmel
38%
$2.83
Carmel Highlands
122%
$2.02
Pebble Beach
7%
$2.03
Quail
-38%
$3.78
Preserve
11%
$2.20
Overall
22%
$8M+
8
$6M - $8M
7
$4M - $6M
24
$3M - $4M
16
$2.5M - $3M
21
$2M - $2.5M
15
$1.5M - $2M
31
$1M - $1.5M
32
<$1M
13
Total Annual Sales
Average Sales Price ($M) 4Q2020
Area
YoY % Change
$2.92
Carmel
41%
$3.39
Carmel Highlands
39%
$3.53
Pebble Beach
5%
$2.17
Quail
-38%
$3.78
Preserve
11%
$3.15
Overall
16%
4 | Market Overview
Information believed to be reliable as obtained from the Monterey County Association of Realtors database and known off market transactions.
4Q2020 Update All Regions
# of Sales
Quarterly Sales by Region
Carmel
Sales Price Range
Carmel Highlands
Pebble Beach
Preserve
Quail
4Q19
4Q20
2019
2020
10 Year Ave. 4Q Sales
10 Year Ave. Annual Sales
<$1.0M
16
13
43
50
23
89
$1.0M-$1.5M
24
32
99
99
21
89
$1.5M-$2.0M
14
31
59
87
17
63
$2.0M-$2.5M
16
15
47
61
10
38
$2.5M-$3.0M
5
21
37
45
5
24
$3.0M-$4.0M
4
16
32
62
7
32
$4.0M-$6.0M
11
24
29
58
7
24
$6.0M-$8.0M
4
7
11
25
3
9
$8M+
3
8
10
20
2
9
Total Sales
97
167
367
507
95
376
Market Overview | 5
Pebble Beach Market Overview
In a uniquely different year, the Pebble Beach real estate market reflected a dynamic and evolving shift in lifestyles that propelled home sales to near-record highs throughout the year. With 68 sales invested in over $240M, Pebble finished 2020 on a strong note – posting totals well above quarterly and annual averages. Q4 outpaced its 10-year rolling averages in transactions and dollar volume by 100% and 167% respectively, while 2020 bested its averages by 29% and 78%. As we entered 2020, there were 71 homes actively listed, but as Pebble’s deal flow accelerated in Q2 and Q3, inventory levels continued to compress, closing the year out with just 54 active listings (-23% YoY). This meteoric rise in demand for Pebble’s rural and coastal settings gave Sellers an advantage in negotiations – narrowing discounting from list prices to just -1.17%, a new annual record. The days-on-market ticker mirrored that trend as deals entered escrow at an accelerated rate of only 52 days on market. The MPCC area was the most active of the sub-markets with a remarkable 16 average days on market. The upper price brackets highlighted both the final quarter and balance of the year - especially the $4M-$6M and $8M+ price brackets, each nearly doubling quarterly and annual averages. Conversely, the <$1M price bracket stayed quiet in 2020 as inventory evaporated and the entry ticket for single family homes hovered above $1M for a second year in a row. With 25 deals currently in the escrow pipeline entering 2021, Pebble is forecasting an above-average trajectory for a starting quarter. It will be interesting to see if the AT&T Tournament in February brings its traditional blip in inventory and activity without spectators in attendance for the first time.
Nic Canning Pebble Specialist
6
Featured Property Photo: Mira Mare, Pebble Beach Discreetly Available
4Q2020 Update Pebble Beach
4Q2020 Sales by Price Range 5 3 9 5 8 4 12 17 5
$8M+ $6M - $8M $4M - $6M $3M - $4M $2.5M - $3M $2M - $2.5M $1.5M - $2M $1M - $1.5M <$1M
68 Total Sales
$240M Total Dollar Volume
Get Smart
68 Units Sold in 4Q2020
4Q2020 Snapshot
52 Average Days on Market
3% decrease from 3Q20
78% increase from 4Q19
19% decrease from 3Q20
70% increase from 4Q19
31% decrease from 3Q20
59% decrease from 4Q19
4Q2020 Top Pebble Beach Sales 3290 17 Mile Drive 3208 17 Mile Dr 1536 Venadero Road 3414 17 Mile Drive 1675 Crespi Lane 1631 Sonado Road 3301 17 Mile Drive #17 1491 Bonifacio Road 3028 Cormorant Road
$28,000,000 $25,000,000 $10,400,000 $10,000,000 $9,250,000 $7,500,000 $6,736,000 $6,597,660 $5,600,000
4038 Sunridge Road 1560 Viscaino Road 1011 Rodeo Road 3140 Spruance Road 2889 17 Mile Drive 3195 Forest Lake Road 1477 Bonifacio Road 1236 Portola Road 3382 Laureles Lane
Indicates a Canning Properties Sale
$5,107, 277 $4,700,000 $4,650,000 $4,500,000 $4,375,000 $4,300,000 $4,250,000 $4,150,000 $3,890,000
Pebble Beach | 7
# of Sales
Quarterly Sales by Region
Central Pebble Beach
-1.7%
Average % off list price 4Q2020 Sales
Median Home Sales Price ($M)
MPCC
Upper Forest
es to u n i t n o c d n a As dem ations i t o g e n , y l p outstrip sup their o t d e w o r r a have n 1Q15. e c n i s s n i g r tightest ma Average Home Sales Price ($M)
Quarter
Median
YoY % Change
Quarter
Average
YoY % Change
4Q2020
$2.40
4%
4Q2020
$4.00
24%
3Q2020
$3.20
58%
3Q2020
$4.53
27%
2Q2020
$1.60
32%
2Q2020
$1.93
-23%
1Q2020
$2.06
34%
1Q2020
$3.73
74%
4Q2019
$2.30
23%
4Q2019
$3.22
-25%
8 | Pebble Beach
4Q2020 Update Pebble Beach
Pebble Beach Ocean & Golf Front Sub-Region Market Overview
After a dormant first-half of 2020 (0 sales), the coveted Pebble Beach golf and oceanfront market saw a sharp uptick in activity with 5 sales in the second-half (2 golf front and 3 oceanfront) – essentially matching last year’s total transactions and dollar volume. With 5 homes actively on the market as we enter into the New Year and demand holding steady above $8M, this unique sub-market is signaling more activity in 2021. Sales Average DOM Listing Discount Median Sales Price
2011 1 277 -33 $2.20
2012 1 0 0 $2.18
2013 3 10 -13 $12.50
2014 6 616 -4 $16.50
2015 4 154 -14 $4.08
2016 4 168 -9 $12.60
2017
$3.40
2018 3 27 -11 $4.10
2019 5 407 -19 $10.25
2020 5 249.8 -13 $10.00
MPCC Frontline Sub-Region Market Overview
The frontlines at MPCC’s Dunes and Shore Courses posted an above-average year with 4 sales (100% YoY) – one of which set the new highwater mark at $8.1M (1014 Rodeo Rd – off-market). With zero inventory heading into 2021, buyers will continue to compete for these rarely available properties and we may likely see more of these offmarket transactions occur throughout the year. Sales Average DOM Listing Discount Median Sales Price
2011 0 0 0.0 $0.00
2012 3 7 -5.1 $4.25
2013 1 229 -10.4 $3.14
2014 4 178 -7.1 $3.67
2015 4 197 -6.2 $4.64
2016 6 160 -8.2 $4.70
2017 6 208 -6.2 $4.15
2018 2 37 -2.0 $5.20
2019 2 21 -6.6 $5.20
2020 4 32 1.1 $6.10
Spanish Bay Condos Sub-Region Market Overview
In a very quiet year for the Residences at Spanish Bay, only two transactions occurred across all four quarters. Both of these sold units were among what is considered the backline, which faces easterly across Spanish Bay’s 12th hole. Both of these units were largely in original condition with sale prices ranging from $2.55M-$2.66M. 2021’s forecast is showing no major shifts in deal flow for this sub-market as inventory remains razor thin (0 active) and sellers tend hold onto these sought-after units for longer-than-average periods of time (50% longer than Pebble’s average of 8-10 years).
Sales Average DOM Listing Discount Median Sales Price
2011 4 261.3 -10.7 $2.00
2012 4 13.3 -2.8 $2.06
2013 2 138.0 -9.1 $2.90
2014 1 82.0 -5.0 $1.90
2015 4 3.0 -5.2 $3.75
2016 3 65.7 -3.1 $3.60
2017 6 91.7 -5.8 $3.40
2018 4 116.0 -3.3 $3.07
2019 4 32.8 -3.3 $3.60
2020 2 33 -9.3 $2.61
Pebble Beach - Sub Regions Overview | 9
Carmel
Market Overview Carmel velocity dropped this quarter to 69 deals, which is down 24% from last quarter (91) but up 60% from this time last year. Climbing prices helped to narrow the gap in total sales volume from last quarter - the $202M invested in 4Q is down just 13% from last quarter and up 126% from 4Q19. Additionally, weâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;re up a striking four-fold from 2Q20 ($45M). Overall, Carmel had 221 deals close in 2020, which is up 25% from last year (177) and 78% from 2010 (124). The top of the market held strong this year was 12 sales above $6M, which is twice that of 2019. However, the price bracket that grew the most this year $4-6M, which had 24 sales in 2020, triple that of last year. Tellingly, sales below $1M basically evaporate with just 7 sales this year, down from the peak of 75 that closed in 2012. Dealflow across the subregions in Carmel were very balanced, hovering around 10-13 in each of the 6 regions; however, demand to be close to Carmel Beach pushed sales prices in the Golden Rectangle to peak levels, bringing in an incredible $63M. Carmel Point rebounded from last yearâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s disappointing activity, with $110M of sales in 2020, up 64% from last year and the highest investment in over a decade. Northwest Carmel benefitted from the removal of those Eucalyptus trees, with prices climbing with the stronger ocean views; Northwest Carmel had $119M close in 2020, which was the highest on record and up 129% from last year and over three times that of 2010 ($29M). Competition for the best properties has elevated prices and resulted in multiple offers on some choice properties. Across the price spectrum weâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;re seeing less negotiating room, with sales prices coming in just 1.7% off list price, down considerably from the 4-7% list discount we have historically seen in this area. The median sales price in Carmel came in at $2.18M in 2020, with Carmel Point and the Golden Rectangle leading the pack ($3.7M and $3.09M respectively); this is the first time either region has seen the median sales price rise above $3M.
Jess Canning Carmel Specialist
10
Featured Property Photo : 2452 Bay View Avenue, Carmel 2452BayView.com
4Q2020 Update Carmel
4Q2020 Sales by Price Range $8M+ $6M - $8M $4M - $6M $3M - $4M $2.5M - $3M $2M - $2.5M $1.5M - $2M $1M - $1.5M <$1M
69 Total Sales
$201M
Total Dollar Volume
Get Smart
4Q2020 Snapshot
69
Units Sold in 4Q2020
44 Average Days on Market
2 3 13 5 9 9 12 13 3
13% decrease from 3Q20
126% increase from4Q19
24% decrease from 3Q20
60% increase from 4Q19
12% decrease from 3Q20
37% decrease from4Q19
4Q2020 Top Carmel Sales San Antonio 3NW of Santa Lucia $11,249,000 NWC of San Antonio Ave & 9th $8,050,000 26334 Carmelo Street $7,700,000 SE Corner of San Antonio & 7th $6,100,000 Scenic Road 3NE of 13th $6,050,000 25690 Hatton Road $5,520,000 SEC of Carmelo & 4th $5,250,000 Monte Verde 2NE of 3rd $5,250,000 26249 Ocean View Avenue $5,100,000
Carmelo 4SW of Ocean Carmelo 2NE of 10th 26255 Ocean View Ave SEC of Casanova & 12th SWC of Camino Real & 7th 3455 7th Ave 26187 Camino Real 25951 Ridgewood 2325 Stewart Way
Indicates a Canning Properties Sale
$4,750,000 $4,695,000 $4,650,000 $4,603,500 $4,600,000 $4,500,000 $4,250,000 $4,250,000 $4,200,000
Carmel | 12
# of Sales
Quarterly Sales by Region
Carmel Point Northeast Carmel
Golden Rectangle Northwest Carmel
-1.7%
Average % off list price 4Q2020 Sales
Median Home Sales Price ($M)
Hatton Fields Southeast Carmel
sales n a i d e m 0 2 The 20 is the M 1 1 . 2 $ f o price rd for o c e r n o t s e high Carmel. Average Home Sales Price ($M)
Quarter
Median
YoY % Change
Quarter
Average
YoY % Change
4Q2020
$2.18
32%
4Q2020
$2.61
33%
3Q2020
$1.70
-17%
3Q2020
$1.98
-15%
2Q2020
$2.21
3%
2Q2020
$2.69
12%
1Q2019
$1.80
-2%
1Q2019
$2.14
-3%
4Q2019
$1.65
-25%
4Q2019
$1.97
-21%
13 | Carmel
4Q2020 Update Carmel
Carmel "3C's"
Sub-Region Market Overview Carmel has seen strong demand from new buyers looking for a beach house and locals spending more time in town who are looking to upgrade their footprint. The 3 Câ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s have benefitted strongly from both groups.
Sales Average DOM Listing Discount Median Sales Price
2011 16 94 -3.7 $2.21
2012 23 116 -5.0 $1.23
2013 13 147 -7.6 $2.20
2014 16 205 -3.4 $2.06
2015 10 75 -3.6 $2.06
2016 16 79 -5.4 $2.57
2017 19 56 -4.5 $2.30
2018 19 41 -3.5 $2.73
2019 20 70 -3.0 $2.70
2020 21 28 -4.2 $3.03
Carmel Point
Sub-Region Market Overview The desire for more square footage and proximity to the beach has helped lift sales prices on the point and surge past 2019 dealflow.
Sales Average DOM Listing Discount Median Sales Price
2011 13 121 -8.7 $1.50
2012 9 296 -11.7 $2.50
2013 22 237 -5.9 $2.23
2014 20 124 -4.7 $3.10
2015 14 182 -3.7 $2.59
2016 13 60 -5.3 $2.48
2017 16 91 -3.6 $2.64
2018 24 82 -4.4 $2.50
2019 11 158 -6.7 $3.27
2020 20 63.3 -2.6 $3.73
Scenic
Sub-Region Market Overview Although many sellers on Scenic have tried to test higher list prices in this strong market, they have actually held fairly steady this year, inching up to $6.68M.
Sales Average DOM Listing Discount Median Sales Price
2011 4 133 -5.4 $5.20
2012 6 331 -11.4 $5.46
2013 9 263 -6.2 $4.90
2014 7 183 -4.8 $4.03
2015 4 133 -5.8 $7.20
2016 5 184 -4.4 $8.90
2017 8 109 -9.0 $5.62
2018 6 97 4.4 $6.40
2019 3 72 -12.5 $6.30
2020 6 237 -11.2 $6.68
Carmel - Sub Regions Overview | 13
Carmel Highlands Market Overview
As was the case with the entire area, the Carmel Highlands and Carmel Meadows markets had record-setting years. Only a few miles down HWY 1, the completely different feel of the Highlands and the easy convenience of every amenity being only minutes away, proved irresistible for almost 50 buyers in 2020. Last year at this time we were reporting a quiet 4Q19 and an overall decrease in total dollar volume sales for the year ($44.1M which was a 31% decrease from the 10-year annual average of $64.1M in sales). This year we report the strongest final 2 quarters of a year in history for the Highlands and Carmel Meadows. 3Q20 and 4Q20 brought in an astounding $125M in property sales in the last half of the year. All told, 2020 was a meteoric year with 48 closed contracts and $165.8M in total dollar volume…that’s more than twice the 10-year annual average! Some of the factors pushing these numbers are record sale prices for both the Highlands ($16.1M) and the Meadows ($13.7M), 28 sales that were over $2M (compared to just 8 in 2019), and a very consistent and strong lower price bracket with 18 properties selling between $1M-$2M. 2021 is already off to a great start with our 166 Spindrift Road listing in escrow and 3 others that had not yet closed at the time of printing. Canning Properties Group is proud to be number #1 in sales in the Carmel Highlands and Carmel Meadows, being involved with $92M in 2020. We are also excited to announce that we have added sales agent David Reese to the team as our dedicated Highlands Specialists to bring specific focus and expand our service beginning in 2021. You can look forward to Dave’s upcoming area-specific updates and seeing him around the Highlands on walks with his wife Elke!
Dave Reese Highlands Specialist
16
Featured Property Photo: 166 Spindrift Road, Carmel Highlands 166Spindrift.com
4Q2020 Update Carmel Highlands
4Q2020 Sales by Price Range 1 1 2 3 3 0 5 1 1
$8M+ $6M - $8M $4M - $6M $3M - $4M $2.5M - $3M $2M - $2.5M $1.5M - $2M $1M - $1.5M <$1M
17 Total Sales
$58M
Total Dollar Volume
Get Smart
4Q2020 Snapshot
17
Units Sold in 4Q2020
68
Average Days on Market
15% decrease from 3Q20
489% increase from 4Q19
26% decrease from 3Q20
325% increase from 4Q19
4% decrease from 3Q20
27% increase from 4Q19
4Q2020 Top Carmel Highlands Sales 2645 Ribera Road 30590 Aurora del Mar 30560 Aurora del Mar 101 Lower Walden Road 3420 Red Wolf 150 Oak Way 101 Yankee Point Drive 31525 Highway 1 1 Mentone Road
$13,744,400 $6,850,000 $4,400,000 $4,250,000 $3,500,000 $3,225,000 $3,100,000 $2,950,000 $2,825,000
246 Highway 1 153 Carmel Riviera 2847 Pradera Road 2905 Ribera Road 32686 Coast Ridge Drive 2810 Ribera Road 3 Yankee Point Drive 192 San Remo Road
Indicates a Canning Properties Sale
$2,800,000 $1,772,500 $1,755,000 $1,605,500 $1,567,500 $1,550,000 $1,200,000 $515,000
Carmel Highlands | 17
Quarterly Sales by Region Carmel Meadows
# of Sales
Carmel Highlands
-4.2%
Average % off list price 4Q2020 Sales
Median Home Sales Price ($M)
et posted k r a m s d lan The High es total l a s y l r e st quart emand d g it's highe n i t n e l with unre d r . o c e r on l setting a t s a o c l ura for its r Average Home Sales Price ($M)
Quarter
Median
YoY % Change
Quarter
Average
YoY % Change
4Q2020
$1.90
5%
4Q2020
$3.09
28%
3Q2020
$6.10
174%
3Q2020
$5.24
104%
2Q2020
$5.20
181%
2Q2020
$4.86
163%
1Q2019
$1.27
-38%
1Q2019
$2.44
-20%
4Q2019
$1.82
-63%
4Q2019
$2.42
-62%
18 | Carmel Highlands
Featured Listings Carmel Highlands
Land's End | 166Spindrift.com
Quail Lodge/ Meadows Market Overview
Quail Lodge held steady this quarter with 4 more sales, bringing the total for 2020 to 12 sales - just under the 10-year average of 13.7 sales. 4Q20 saw a slight dip in total dollars sold from last quarter (down 7.9%) and even further from 4Q19 (down 15%). Even though a few less units than usual were sold due to low inventory, the average sale price was up over $440k compared to the 10-year average and smaller discounts were taken (4.3% off ask), showing strength for sellers. With one home in escrow, only two on the market, and an average of only 60 days on market, we anticipate prices to remain steady with the negotiating power in the hands of the sellers. We continue to see strong demand for single-level homes, increasingly primary residences, in good school districts in close proximity to amenities, which the Quail market continues to deliver. Quail Meadows had a strong finish to 2020 with 2 homes and 1 homesite sold in the fourth quarter, bringing its annual total to 4 homes and 2 homesites – above the 10-year average of 3.1 sales. Fourth quarter total dollar volume ($8.97m) increased by 124% QoQ but was down 26% compared to the same quarter last year, due to the average sale price dropping by the same amount and by 15.9% compared to the 10 year average ($3.83m). Fourth quarter inventory continued to move slightly quicker than its historical trend by 5.6% (168 DOM) and the full year’s sales saw a noticeable acceleration by 27.5% (129 DOM). Although inventory remains very tight (1), buyers’ negotiating power has remained with a consistent 6.9% discount off ask price over the years. The market continues to try and find its rhythm as 2020 finished with over $16.6m in total sales, trailing 2019 by 137% but ahead of its 10 year historical average by 125%. Of the 11 new members we welcomed to the Quail community this year, around 40% are full-time residents while the balance call their Quail home a secondary residence. Interestingly, all but two (both from Nevada) of the new part-time owners come from the Bay Area – using their homes here in Quail as a weekend retreat. With razorthin inventory levels in both sub-markets, the Quail area is forecasting a slower start to 2021 for welcoming new members to this special community.
Brian Keck Preserve Specialist
18
Featured Property Photo: 7010 Valley Greens Circle 7010ValleyGreens.com
4Q2020 Update Quail Lodge/Meadows
4Q2020 Sales by Price Range 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 1 0
$8M+ $6M - $8M $4M - $6M $3M - $4M $2.5M - $3M $2M - $2.5M $1.5M - $2M $1M - $1.5M <$1M
7 Total Sales
$15.2M
Total Dollar Volume
Get Smart
4Q2020 Snapshot
7
Units Sold in 4Q2020
108
Average Days on Market
25% increase from 3Q20
28% decrease from4Q19
41% increase from 3Q20
17% increase from4Q19
1071% increase from 3Q20
81% increase from4Q19
4Q2020 Quail Lodge/ Meadows Sales 5463 Quail Meadows Drive 5480 Quail Meadows Drive 7026 Valley Knoll Road 8072 Lake Place 8017 River Place 8050 Poplar Lane 5501 Quail Meadows Drive
$3,875,000 $2,575,000 $2,025,000 $2,100,000 $1,825,000 $1,600,000 $1,200,000
Quail Lodge / Meadows | 19
Quarterly Sales by Region Quail Meadows
# of Sales
Quail Lodge
-5.9%
Average % off list price 4Q2020 Sales
Median Home Sales Price ($M)
antly c i f i n g i s t on marke s y a d h t Wi entory at v n i d n a g decreasin er has w o p g n i c i ows, pr all-time l â&#x20AC;&#x2122; favor. s r e l l e s the shifted in Average Home Sales Price ($M)
Quarter
Median
YoY % Change
Quarter
Average
YoY % Change
4Q2020
$2.10
-20%
4Q2020
$2.44
-7%
3Q2020
$2.00
-1%
3Q2020
$2.00
-19%
2Q2020
$2.54
37%
2Q2020
$2.54
37%
1Q2019
$4.55
148%
1Q2019
$4.03
119%
4Q2019
$2.64
48%
4Q2019
$2.64
40%
20 | Quail Lodge / Meadows
Featured Listings Carmel
Expansive Living on Scenic | 26263Scenic.com
Carmel Point Paradise | 2452BayView.com
The Preserve Market Overview
The Preserve topped off a record-setting year with one home and five homesite sales in the fourth quarter, bringing 2020 totals to 16 homes and 32 homesites, more than doubling any previous record in the past 10 years! Total home sales for the year eclipsed $69m (472% increase YoY), beating the previous high-water mark by over $44m. Total homesite sales for the year were over $25m (349% increase YoY), beating the previous high-water mark by over $13m. With finished home inventory (3) at an all-time low, distractions with elections, COVID-19 and wildfires, 4Q20 slowed by 69% compared to the recordsetting 3Q20 but beat its 4Q 10-year average by 220%. Vacant land inventory (41) remains consistently high as new lots continue to enter the market, but 4Q20 continued the steep upward trend in land sales (400% increase YoY; 432% greater than historical average). As buyers fled cities to seek more rural open space and world-class outdoor amenities, gobbling up yearsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; worth of inventory, we saw 2020 home sales discounts held steady at 5.6% and 2020 average days on market fall by 45% from their historical averages, while the average 2020 home sale remained in line with its average at $4.35m. We anticipate home prices to rise as the high demand, low inventory, smaller discounts and quicker sales trends continue. Vacant land may become the beneficiary of low home inventory, but for now, buyers are balking at overpriced lots as discounts dips slightly to 12.4%, average sales prices ($816k) remain at par; however, average days on market (224) have been reduced by 32% compared to the 10-year trend. In addition to strong demand for its prime real estate, Preserve Golf and Ranch Memberships had a banner year with over 73 (Golf ) and 47 (Ranch) membership sold, resulting in Clubs that are near capacity. Furthermore, participation in activities such as golf, were up over 30% than average and the Ranch Club accelerated its safe, outdoor excursions on guided fishing tours in Mooreâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Lake, hikes on over 100 miles of trails and scenic equestrian trail rides. Our Team is honored once again to be the top Preserve seller with over $76m in 2020, having represented at least one side in 11 of 16 home transactions, with a 32% homesite market share, represented both buyers and sellers in the single 4Q20 sale, represented the buyer in the top sale ($6.9m) in the past 9 years, and currently has a part in all pending escrows (1 home; 3 homesites). Record 2020 sales will be written in the history books and difficult to beat for many years to come.
Brian Keck Peserve Specialist
23
Featured Property Photo: 2 Penon Peak Trail 2PenonPeak.com
4Q2020 Update Preserve
4Q2020 Sales by Price Range 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 4
$8M+ $6M - $8M $4M - $6M $3M - $4M $2.5M - $3M $2M - $2.5M $1.5M - $2M $1M - $1.5M <$1M
6 Total Sales
$10.5M
Total Dollar Volume
Get Smart
4Q2020 Snapshot
6
Units Sold in 4Q2020
181
Average Days on Market
81% decrease from 3Q20
22% increase from 4Q19
75% decrease from 3Q20
50% increase from4Q19
36% increase from 3Q20
10% decrease from 4Q19
4Q2020 Top Preserve Sales 90 Chamisal Pass 80 Chamisal Pass 10 Wild Boar Run 9 Wild Boar Run 22 Potrero Trail 15 Mesa Trail
$3,775,000 $3,750,000 $855,000 $725,000 $700,000 $695,000
Indicates a Canning Properties Sale
Santa Lucia Preserve | 23
Quarterly Sales Preserve Houses
# of Sales
Preserve Lots
historica Q 4 d e l b rly dou 4Q20 nea average!
Median Home Sales Price ($M)
l
Average Home Sales Price ($M)
Quarter
Median
YoY % Change
Quarter
Average
YoY % Change
4Q2020
$4.30
100%
4Q2020
$4.57
100%
3Q2020
$3.70
-9%
3Q2020
$3.70
-9%
2Q2020
$4.25
8%
2Q2020
$4.22
7%
1Q2019
$3.40
-3%
1Q2019
$3.40
-3%
4Q2019
$0.00
-100%
4Q2019
$0.00
-100%
24 | Preserve
Featured Properties Santa Lucia Preserve Sales in 4Q20
In Escrow
70 Chamisal Pass | 70Chamisal.com | List Price : $1,195,000 | Represent Seller
Sold
39 Pronghorn Run | Sale Price: $5,350,000 | Represented Buyer & Seller
Sold
90 Chamisal Pass | Sale Price: $3,775,000 | Represented Buyer & Seller
Sold
59 Rancho San Carlos | Sale Price: $3,375,000 | Represented Seller
Over $434 Million Closed in 2020 WORK WITH A TEAM; WORK WITH THE BEST
#1 Team in Monterey County #1 Team in Carmel, Pebble Beach
Carmel Highlands & The Preserve
MIKE CANNING, JESSICA CANNING, NIC CANNING, ELLEN KRAUSSE, BRIAN KECK & DAVE REESE 831.238.5535
|
TEAM@CANNINGPROPERTIES.COM
|
CANNINGPROPERTIES.COM
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3116 Bird Rock, Pebble Beach
3333 17 Mile Drive, Pebble Beach
1228 Padre Lane , Pebble Beach
1139 Portola Road, Pebble Beach
24825 Via Malpaso, Tehama
Property Photo: 1139 Portola Road, Pebble Beach
Canning Properties Group Top 2020 Sales 3290 17 Mile Drive
Pebble Beach
Seller
$28,000,000
3188 17 Mile Drive
Pebble Beach
Buyer
$24,875,000
165 Spindrift Road
Carmel Highlands
Buyer & Seller
$18,100,000
1231 Padre Lane
Pebble Beach
Buyer
$13,900,000
2645 Ribera Road
Carmel
Seller
$13,750,000
San Antonio 3NW of Santa Lucia
Carmel-by-the-Sea
Buyer
$11,249,000
1504 Bonifacio Road
Pebble Beach
Buyer & Seller
$ 10,894,14 6
1536 Venadero Road
Pebble Beach
Buyer & Seller
$10,400,000
3414 17 Mile Drive
Pebble Beach
Seller
$10,000,000
3418 17 Mile Drive
Pebble Beach
Seller
$9,000,000
Scenic 4 NE of 13th
Carmel-by-the-Sea
Seller
$7,800,000
30500 Aurora Del Mar
Carmel Highlands
Seller
$7,777,777
6 Vista Cielo
Preserve
Buyer
$6,900,000
36648 Highway 1
Carmel Highlands
Buyer & Seller
$6,100,000
Scenic 3NE of 13th
Carmel-by-the-Sea
Buyer & Seller
$6,050,000
164 Corona Road
Carmel Highlands
Buyer & Seller
$6,000,000
1152 Spyglass Hill
Pebble Beach
Buyer
$5,500,000
1456 Riata Road
Pebble Beach
Seller
$5,400,000
39 Pronghorn Run
Preserve
Buyer & Seller
$5,350,000
1505 Venadero Road
Pebble Beach
Seller
$5,300,000
NEC of San Antonio & Ocean
Carmel-by-the-Sea
Buyer
$4,950,000
24825 Via Malpaso
Tehama
Buyer
$4,900,000
26317 Scenic Road
Carmel
Seller
$4,750,000
4 Vista Cielo
Preserve
Buyer
$4,750,000
8275 Carina
Tehama
Seller
$4,396,750
2 Long Ridge Trail
Preserve
Buyer
$4,250,000
24 Potrero Trail
Preserve
Seller
$4,250,000
101 Lower Walden Road
Carmel Highlands
Buyer
$4,250,000
NWC Dolores & 13th
Carmel-by-the-Sea
Seller
$4,195,000
1236 Portola Road
Pebble Beach
Seller
$4,150,000
3 Garzas Trail
Preserve
Buyer & Seller
$4,050,000
7 Corral Run
Preserve
Seller
$4,000,000
32 Potrero Trail
Preserve
Seller
$3,928,800
3382 Laureles Lane
Pebble Beach
Buyer & Seller
$3,890,000
8 & 10 Rancho San Carlos Road
Preserve
Buyer & Seller
$3,850,000
2457 Bay View
Carmel
Buyer & Seller
$3,837,500
90 Chamisal Pass
Preserve
Buyer & Seller
$3,775,000
36654 Highway 1
Carmel Highlands
Seller
$3,700,000
22 Longridge Trail
Preserve
Buyer
$3,700,000
5465 Quail Meadows
Quail Meadows
Seller
$3,675,000
59 Rancho San Carlos Road
Preserve
Seller
$3,375,000
150 Oak Way
Carmel Highlands
Seller
$3,225,000
Casanova 3SE of 10th
Carmel-by-the-Sea
Seller
$3,200,000
3124 Hacienda Drive
Pebble Beach
Seller
$3,000,000
Canning Properties Group Top 2020 Sales Monte Verde 4 NE of 3rd
Carmel-by-the-Sea
Buyer
$2,972,500
31525 Highway 1
Carmel Highlands
Seller
$2,950,000
Lincoln 5SE of 12th
Carmel-by-the-Sea
Buyer
$2,657,703
San Carlos 3NE of 1st
Carmel-by-the-Sea
Buyer
$2,510,000
931A W Carmel Valley Road
Carmel Valley
Buyer & Seller
$2,470,000
2852 Coyote Road
Pebble Beach
Buyer
$2,225,000
Junipero 2SW of 7th
Carmel-by-the-Sea
Seller
$ 1 ,937,90 0
10483 Fairway Lane
Carmel Valley Ranch
Buyer
$1,900,000
Crespi 6SE of Mountain View
Carmel-by-the-Sea
Seller
$1,850,000
250 Calle De Los Agrinemsors
Carmel Valley
Buyer
$1,850,000
370 El Caminito Road
Carmel Valley
Buyer
$1,575,000
22662 Equipose Road
Monterey
Buyer
$1,575,000
4 Sommerset Vale
Monterey
Buyer
$1,465,000
Mission 2NW of Santa Lucia
Carmel-by-the-Sea
Seller
$1,399,000
55 Rancho San Carlos Road
Preserve
Buyer & Seller
$1,350,000
5474 Quail Way
Quail Meadows
Buyer
$1,320,000
Mission 3NE of 11th
Carmel-by-the-Sea
Buyer
$1,145,000
3 Vista Cielo
Preserve
Buyer
$1,100,000
28088 Barn Court
Carmel Valley Ranch
Buyer
$1,036,000
60 Chamisal Pass
Preserve
Buyer
$875,000
436 Hood Way
Monterey
Buyer
$835,710
6 Rancho San Carlos Road
Preserve
Buyer
$695,000
15 Mesa Trail
Preserve
Seller
$695,000
14 Rancho San Carlos Road
Preserve
Seller
$550,000
2 Garzas Trail
Preserve
Buyer & Seller
$250,000
2 Garzas Trail
Preserve
Buyer & Seller
$250,000
33 Arroyo Sequoia
Preserve
Seller
$200,000
*Source: Statistics pulled from MLS as of 1/1/2021
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