4Q21 Market Update
Mike Canning
Jessica Canning
Nic Canning
DRE#01004964 831.596.1171 mike@mikecanning.com
DRE# 01920034 831.238.5535 jessica@canningproperties.com
DRE# 01959355 831.241.4458 nic@canningproperties.com
Ellen Armstrong
Brian Keck
Dave Reese
DRE# 02046046 831.204.2204 ellen@canningproperties.com
DRE# 02070480 831.238.8730 brian@canningproperties.com
DRE# 02121762 831.272.2172 dave@canningproperties.com
Market Overview Pebble Beach Carmel Carmel Highlands Quail Lodge / Quail Meadows Santa Lucia Preserve
Featured Property Photo: 3292 17 Mile Drive, Pebble Beach SOLD
2-4 5-8 9-12 13-15 16-18 19-21
Overview It’s time for a change of perspective. Although it’s true that inventory is the tightest it has ever been, it’s equally true that more people have bought and sold homes in this area in each of the past 2 years than at any other time. Buyers need to adjust to seeing 1-3 homes when they come into town and moving quickly, rather than seeing 8-9 and taking a few weeks to decide if they want to move forward. Sellers need to understand that buyers are expecting the houses to be movein ready and repairs made, otherwise we’re seeing a significant number of deals falling out of escrow. But, ultimately, a more accurate description of the market is that sale velocity has increased significantly over the past two years, with no change anticipated at this time. There were 124 deals that closed in the fourth quarter across Pebble Beach, Carmel, The Carmel Highlands, Preserve and Quail markets generating $452.3M and bringing total 2021 investments to nearly $1.7B. Carmel led the pack with almost $203M closing this quarter, followed by Pebble with $196M, the Highlands at $24M, Preserve with $15.5M and Quail at $13.6M. The fourth quarter was stronger in both deals and dollars than last quarter, which is fairly common historically, but was lower than the fourth quarter of last year as buyers were snapping up excess inventory available at the time. Prices have reached the highest levels on record, climbing 26% over this quarter last year to $3.01M. The Preserve led the pack with a median sales price of $5.43M as people continue to pay a premium for lots of space and amenities. Given the dearth of listings under $2M, we anticipate this median continuing to climb through 2022.
Market Insight All Regions
4Q2021 Sales by Price Range
124
Total Sales
Median Sales Price ($M) 4Q2021
Area
YoY% Change
$3.20
Carmel
36%
$3.15
Carmel Highlands
11%
$2.66
Pebble Beach
15%
$4.60
Quail
123%
$5.43
Preserve
44%
$3.01
Overall
26%
$8M+
12
$6M - $8M
5
$4M - $6M
17
$3M - $4M
24
$2.5M - $3M
12
$2M - $2.5M
10
$1.5M - $2M
19
$1M - $1.5M
16
<$1M
9
Total Annual Sales
Average Sales Price ($M) 4Q2021
Area
YoY % Change
$3.67
Carmel
24%
$4.01
Carmel Highlands
14%
$4.01
Pebble Beach
9%
$4.53
Quail
94%
$5.43
Preserve
44%
$3.88
Overall
18%
Market Overview | 3
Information believed to be reliable as obtained from the Monterey County Association of Realtors database and known off market transactions.
4Q2021 Update All Regions
# of Sales
Quarterly Sales by Region
Carmel Sales Price Range
Carmel Highlands
Pebble Beach
Preserve
Quail
4Q20
4Q21
2H 2020
2H 2021
10 Year Ave. 4Q Sales
10 Year Ave. 2H Sales
<$1.0M
13
9
39
18
21
42
$1.0M-$1.5M
32
16
67
30
21
45
$1.5M-$2.0M
31
19
70
39
18
35
$2.0M-$2.5M
15
10
46
17
10
22
$2.5M-$3.0M
21
12
36
28
6
14
$3.0M-$4.0M
16
24
42
35
9
19
$4.0M-$6.0M
24
17
46
30
9
16
$6.0M-$8.0M
7
5
18
10
3
6
$8M+
8
12
16
20
3
6
167
124
380
227
101
205
Total Sales
Market Overview | 4
Pebble Beach Market Overview
After a surprisingly subdued 3rd quarter, the Pebble Beach marketplace picked-up pace in the 4th quarter with 51 sales invested in $196M – bringing the totals for 2021 to 185 sales and $738M respectively. This is another very strong year in comparison to 2020, which previously set all-time highwater marks in both categories with 177 sales invested in $609M. As the work-from-home culture further cemented roots in 2021, Pebble Beach saw a dramatic rise in demand from people seeking to live here full-time, in addition to the traditional buyers seeking a coastal vacation home. This confluence of multiple demand channels throughout 2021 thinned inventory levels to record lows while lifting home prices to new highs in the process. Sellers remained in control of negotiations in ’21 as supply-demand imbalances produced a higher percentage of multiple offer scenarios that steadily pushed median sales prices up from the previous year. Closing out 2021, Central Pebble Beach reached $5.4M (+41.7% YoY) while the MPCC area rose to $2.35M (+25.5% YoY) and the Upper Forest rose to $1.2M (+10% YoY). The 19 properties currently listed in Pebble Beach represent a staggering 60% YoY drop from this time last year, which had 54 active listings entering the New Year. Interestingly, of the 19 listings currently active, 14 are above $6M – furthering the top-heavy trend we’ve seen developing over recent years. Also of note, the lowest priced listing on the market is $2.95M - making the entry ticket for Pebble nearly $3M. Considered one of the best ocean-front properties along Pebble’s famed coastline, 3292 17 Mile Dr closed this quarter at an impressive $33.8M - eclipsing the previous record set in July at $32.6M by 3398 17 Mile Dr. We’re incredibly honored to have the opportunity of representing both Sellers of these record sales of two truly incredible properties. Looking ahead to 2022, there are 11 pending sales in the pipeline totaling $96M in list prices, which would put Pebble on an aboveaverage trajectory for a first quarter. Also, we’re seeing a couple of trends evolving that we’ll be keeping a close eye on in the first half of 2022, including the influence of supply chain disruptions, rising interest/inflation rates and potential value impacts from regulatory changes to the local short-term rental market. Look for our 1Q22 market update where we’ll cover how these potential market influencing trends play out.
Nic Canning Pebble Specialist
5
Featured Property Photo: 1573 Riata Road, Pebble Beach 1573RiataRoad.com
4Q2021 Update Pebble Beach
4Q2021 Sales by Price Range 5 2 7 5 6 3 15 5 3
$8M+ $6M - $8M $4M - $6M $3M - $4M $2.5M - $3M $2M - $2.5M $1.5M - $2M $1M - $1.5M <$1M
51
Total Sales
$196M Total Dollar Volume
Get Smart
4Q2021 Snapshot
51 Units Sold in 4Q2021
87 Average Days on Market
63% increase from 3Q21
18% decrease from 4Q20
43% decrease from 3Q21
33% increase from 4Q20
195% increase from 3Q21
66% increase from 4Q20
4Q2021 Top Pebble Beach Sales 3292 17 Mile Drive 1605 Sonado Road 3414 17 Mile Drive 3269 Cabrillo Road 1584 Griffin Road 1463 Cypress Drive 3957 Ronda Road 3108 Flavin Lane 3194 Del Ciervo Road
$33,815,380 $11,500,000 $10,500,000 $8,600,000 $ 8, 2 2 5 ,0 0 0 $7,945,000 $6,965,000 $5,800,000 $5,5 75,000
1684 Crespi Lane 3183 Del Ciervo Road 3088 Valdez Road 1472 Padre Lane 2942 Bird Rock Road 1020 San Carlos Road 3245 Cabrillo Road 1226 Bristol Lane 3183 Palmero Way
Indicates a Canning Properties Group Sale
$5,300,000 $4,500,000 $4,487,500 $4,250,000 $4,000,000 $3,850,000 $3,835,000 $3,650,000 $3,455,000
# of Sales
Quarterly Sales by Region
Central Pebble Beach
-2.6%
Average % off list price 4Q2021 Sales
Median Home Sales Price ($M)
MPCC
Upper Forest
s g n i t s i l r e d l o ng i b r o s b a s i t e k Ma r a t a d i s c o u n t. Average Home Sales Price ($M)
Quarter
Median
YoY % Change
Quarter
Average
YoY % Change
4Q2021
$2.66
15%
4Q2021
$4.01
9%
3Q2021
$2.93
36%
3Q2021
$4.58
26%
2Q2021
$3.50
11%
2Q2021
$4.59
4%
1Q2021
$2.75
79%
1Q2021
$4.04
118%
4Q2020
$2.33
15%
4Q2020
$3.68
3%
Pebble Beach | 7
4Q2021 Update
Pebble Beach Ocean & Golf Front
Pebble Beach
Sub-Region Market Overview
Several marquee properties that have been in the family for multiple generations hit the market this year, bringing the total number of ocean and golf front properties sold up to 7 in 2021, for a total of $132M. We also saw the last vacant lots on Pebble close (one turning twice) which is why the median sales price appears lower. Several of the homes that have sold recently have been teardowns or major fixers so, as we start to see finished product close, we’ll see prices inch closer to, or exceed, the $40M mark. Sales Average DOM Listing Discount Median Sales Price
2012 1 0 0 $14.00
2013 3 10 -13 $22.50
2014 6 616 -4 $16.50
2015 4 154 -14 $10.23
2016 4 168 -9 $17.00
2017 0 0 0 0
2018 3 27 -11 $25.25
2019 5 407 -19 $21.00
2020 5 250 -13 $24.88
2021 7 33 -8 $12.37
MPCC Frontline Sub-Region Market Overview
The demand for easy to maintain homes with ocean views remains very strong right now, with houses that fit both criteria getting snapped up instantly, at ever-increasing prices. The biggest challenge right now is lack of inventory over the past couple of years, with just 3 frontline properties selling in 2021. This often comes in waves, so I do anticipate more options hitting the market over the next 12-18 months. Sales Average DOM Listing Discount Median Sales Price
2012 3 7 -5.06 $4.25
2013 1 229 -10 $3.14
2014 4 178 -7 $3.67
2015 4 197 -6 $4.64
2016 6 160 -8 $4.70
2017 6 208 -6 $4.15
2018 2 37 -2 $5.20
2019 2 21 -7 $5.20
2020 4 32 1 $6.10
2021 3 3 -2 $8.00
Spanish Bay Condos Sub-Region Market Overview
Just two units sold, essentially immediately and for list price in Spanish Bay this year, with one more actively listed. The median notched up to $3.48M, for interior units (not frontline with expansive ocean views), but the market appears to be pushing back on the $5M price tag of the actively listed unit currently. This shows that although the market is still very strong, there is a ceiling on that sub-market.
Sales Average DOM Listing Discount Median Sales Price
2012 4 13 -2.765 $2.06
2013 2 138 -9 $2.90
2014 1 82 -5 $1.90
2015 4 3 -5 $3.75
2016 3 66 -3 $3.60
2017 6 92 -6 $3.40
2018 4 116 -3 $3.07
2019 4 33 -3 $3.60
2020 2 140 -9 $2.61
2021 2 7 -1 $3.48
Pebble Beach - Sub Regions Overview | 8
Carmel
Market Overview Carmel surged this quarter with nearly $203M invested into 56 deals, which was a sharp increase from the third quarter which had $140M into 45 deals. Buyers are approaching downtown Carmel with more flexibility regarding location than they previously focused on, so we’re seeing strong activity across all of the neighborhoods, with continued interest in the western parts of town; Northwest Carmel had 13 sales this quarter, the Golden Rectangle 12 and the Point posted 10. Although demand is strong across the entire price spectrum, we’re seeing the most activity in the $2.5-4M bracket, representing 21 of the 56 deals this quarter. There were also 6 deals close north of $8M, the most in a single quarter that we’ve ever seen. This is mostly driven by more people demanding oversized houses (there aren’t many in Carmel) and a few homes sold on Scenic as people upgrade their cottages that they bought recently for ones with views. Prices have certainly been climbing in the area, with houses in the Golden Rectangle or Carmel Point leading the pack. The median sales price in both neighborhoods crested $4M this year, after holding steady around $2.5M for most of the past decade and almost triple that of 2011 ($1.5M). Given the tight inventory meeting strong demand, we anticipate prices to continue to rise this year, but not necessarily at the rate that we’ve seen over the past 2 years.
Jessica Canning Carmel Specialist
9
Featured Property Photo : San Carlos 2SE of 13th, Carmel-by-the-Sea SanCarlos2SEof13th.com
4Q2021 Update Carmel
4Q2021 Sales by Price Range $8M+ $6M - $8M $4M - $6M $3M - $4M $2.5M - $3M $2M - $2.5M $1.5M - $2M $1M - $1.5M <$1M
56
Total Sales
$203M
Total Dollar Volume
Get Smart
4Q2021 Snapshot
56
Units Sold in 4Q2021
36 Average Days on Market
6 1 8 16 5 6 3 9 2
45% increase from 3Q21
1% increase from 4Q20
24% increase from 3Q21
19% decrease from 4Q20
25% increase from 3Q21
19% decrease from 4Q20
4Q2021 Top Carmel Sales 26262 Isabella Avenue 26221 Hilltop Place NEC of Scenic & 12th 26212 Scenic Road Del Mar 5SW of Ocean 26405 Scenic Road 26363 Scenic Road SEC San Antonio & 8th Casanova 3NW of 11th
$12,500,000 $12,500,000 $9,800,000 $9,500,000 $9,489,392 $8,300,000 $8,200,000 $6,700,000 $5,250,000
San Antonio 2NE of 9th Monte Verde 3 NE of 9th SWC Casanova & 11th Carmelo 2NW of 9th SWC Casanova & 13th 3 SW Monte Verde Street #7th 26265 Carmelo Street Guadalupe 6NW of Sixth Carmelo 5NE of Ocean
Indicates a Canning Properties Group Sale
$5,125,000 $5,100,000 $5,005,000 $5,000,000 $4,605,000 $4,220,000 $4,100,000 $3,900,000 $3,850,000
# of Sales
Quarterly Sales by Region
Carmel Point Northeast Carmel
Golden Rectangle Northwest Carmel
+0.8% Average % off list price 4Q2021 Sales
Median Home Sales Price ($M)
Hatton Fields Southeast Carmel
g in t t e g e r a ls a e d f o y it A major tly h g li s g in o g d n a r e f f o multiple above ask. Average Home Sales Price ($M)
Quarter
Median
YoY % Change
Quarter
Average
YoY % Change
4Q2021
$3.20
36%
4Q2021
$3.67
24%
3Q2021
$2.40
14%
3Q2021
$3.02
16%
2Q2021
$2.58
52%
2Q2021
$3.11
58%
1Q2021
$2.00
-10%
1Q2021
$2.67
-1%
4Q2020
$2.35
40%
4Q2020
$2.95
42%
Carmel | 11
4Q2021 Update
Carmel
Carmel "3C's"
Sub-Region Market Overview Prices skyrocketed this year to nearly $4M for a standard 1,600 sq.ft. house that’s close to the beach. This puts downtown Carmel at nearly double Manhattan and SF on a $/Sqft basis. Even with prices almost double the historic average, if the house is move-in ready, buyers should be prepared to offer above ask to get the house.
Sales Average DOM Listing Discount Median Sales Price
2012 23 116 -5 $1.23
2013 13 147 -8 $2.20
2014 16 205 -3 $2.06
2015 10 75 -4 $2.29
2016 16 79 -5 $2.57
2017 19 56 -5 $2.30
2018 19 41 -3 $2.73
2019 20 70 -3 $2.70
2020 21 28 -4 $3.03
2021 14 28 2 $3.95
Carmel Point
Sub-Region Market Overview Prices surged to a median of $4.2M as people continue to look at Carmel as a potential full time destination. Given the natural beauty and larger lots and houses, Carmel Point is an ideal location for the work-from-home or raise a family while still hearing the waves at night. This is what’s driving the strong deal-flow, even with rising prices. Sales Average DOM Listing Discount Median Sales Price
2012 9 296 -12 $2.50
2013 22 237 -6 $2.23
2014 20 124 -5 $3.10
2015 14 182 -4 $2.59
2016 13 60 -5 $2.48
2017 16 91 -4 $2.64
2018 24 82 -4 $2.50
2019 11 158 -7 $3.27
2020 20 63 -3 $3.73
2021 19 34 0 $4.20
Scenic
Sub-Region Market Overview Prices soared on Scenic this year to a median of $9.18M and an astounding 12 sales. Part of the rising median is a few strong, new houses have sold, which always drive a premium. Additionally, buyers are paying outsized prices for oversized homes. With inventory shrinking, it’s likely the wave has passed and we’ll return to 4-6 sales next year, unless prices continue to pull sellers off the sideline. Sales Average DOM Listing Discount Median Sales Price
2012 6 331 -11 $5.46
2013 9 263 -6 $4.90
2014 7 183 -5 $4.03
Carmel - Sub Regions Overview | 12
2015 4 133 -6 $7.20
2016 5 184 -4 $8.90
2017 8 109 -9 $5.62
2018 6 97 4 $6.40
2019 3 72 -12 $6.30
2020 6 237 -11 $6.68
2021 12 108 -3 $9.18
Carmel Highlands Market Overview
At the end of last quarter, we were noting a stabilization of the Carmel Highlands and the Carmel Meadows markets. Coming out of 2020— with its unprecedented swings from quarter to quarter—there was a cautious optimism that we had entered a “new normal” for these markets. Therefore, as we say goodbye to 2021 we look forward to another year of strong and consistent real estate trends in these still highly sought after areas. Here are some highlights and statistics from the past year: •Another 6 closed property sales in 4Q21—bringing the total number of sales for 2021 to 32—averaging of 8 properties sold per quarter. This is almost double the previous 10 year rolling average of 4.5 per quarter. •Total dollar volume of sold property for 2021: $132M •Highest total dollar sale: $16M (Canning Properties Group is honored to have represented both the buyer and seller of this Spindrift home) •Average Days on Market (DOM): 77 days which is an increase from 68 this time last year As we welcome 2022, there are 11 active or contingent listings in the Highlands and the Meadows, totaling almost $100M in real estate currently for sale in these markets. And with a new record listing of an oceanfront estate on Spindrift Road for $30M, the Carmel Highlands are poised to have another record-setting year. As we leave 2021 and begin the new year the following 3 points are what we see and what we expect to continue into 2022: •Market Stability and Greater Predictability •Limited Inventory and Strong Buyer Demand •New Benchmarks and a New Normal for Higher Property Values Those 3 facts mean that there may never be a better time to be a seller. If you have a property in the Meadows or Highlands areas and are interested in talking through what it would look like to list your property, please reach out and we will set up an appointment for the team to come down for a personal visit. Happy New Year!
Dave Reese Highlands Specialist
13
Featured Property Photo : 237 Highway 1, Carmel Highlands 237Highway1.com
4Q2021 Update Carmel Highlands
4Q2021 Sales by Price Range 1 0 0 3 1 0 1 0 0
$8M+ $6M - $8M $4M - $6M $3M - $4M $2.5M - $3M $2M - $2.5M $1.5M - $2M $1M - $1.5M <$1M
6
Total Sales
$24M
Total Dollar Volume
Get Smart
4Q2021 Snapshot
6
Units Sold in 4Q2021
127
Average Days on Market
25% decrease from 3Q21
58% decrease from 4Q20
45% decrease from 3Q21
65% decrease from 4Q20
140% increase from 3Q21
86% increase from 4Q20
4Q2021 Top Carmel Highlands Sales 230 Highway 1 145 San Remo Road 10 Mentone Road 9 Mal Paso Road 175 Spindrift Road 96 Oak Way
$9,600,000 $3,675,000 $3,200,000 $3,090,500 $2,750,000 $1,750,000
Indicates a Canning Properties Group Sale
Quarterly Sales by Region Carmel Meadows
# of Sales
Carmel Highlands
-4.5%
Average % off list price 4Q2021 Sales
Median Home Sales Price ($M)
h t i w n e v e , m o o r Some negotiating rices.. rising p Average Home Sales Price ($M)
Quarter
Median
YoY % Change
Quarter
Average
YoY % Change
4Q2021
$3.15
11%
4Q2021
$4.01
14%
3Q2021
$2.58
36%
3Q2021
$2.93
-5%
2Q2021
$7.35
20%
2Q2021
$7.41
41%
1Q2021
$3.09
-41%
1Q2021
$3.85
-21%
4Q2020
$2.83
122%
4Q2020
$3.51
44%
Carmel Highlands | 15
Quail Lodge/Meadows Market Overview
Quail Lodge capped off a banner year with one home sale in the fourth quarter, bringing the total for 2021 to 18 sales, well above the 10-year average of 13 sales and up 50% YoY. Total dollars invested surpassed $35M (up 67.5% YoY), broken down by $24.5M sold in single-family homes and $8.3M in condos. Strong demand for the single-level homes, the school district and weather has kept bargaining power in favor of sellers, yielding an average of 0.5% over ask compared to a discount of 4.3% a year ago. Inventory is moving quicker than ever at just an average of 24 days on market (down 60% YoY) and we see the trend continuing with no homes in escrow and just/actively listed. Quail Meadows had a strong finish to the year with two home sales in the fourth quarter, bringing its annual total to 5 homesabove its 10-year average of 3 sales and up 25% YoY. Total dollars in the sub-region equaled $24.9M (up 50% YoY) showing continued strength in demand for quality homes with privacy for both full-time and part-time residents. A few larger estates and newly remodeled home sales helped significantly boost the average sale price to over $4.9M this year, an increase of 30% compared to its 10-year average and up 20% YoY. Fourth quarter inventory continued to move much faster by 84% (26 DOM) compared to the same period last year and the full year’s sales also saw noticeable acceleration by 42% (75 DOM). Although inventory remains very tight with no homes actively listed, buyer’s negotiating power has grown to an average 7.7% discount (up 12% YoY). With no homes in escrow or any currently listed, buyers will have to be patient and willing to pay up for finished product or seek vacant land to build their dream home (1 homesite in escrow).
Brian Keck Preserve & Quail Specialist
Featured Property Photo : 5445 Quail Way, Quail Meadows SOLD
16
4Q2021 Update Quail Lodge/Meadows
4Q2021 Sales by Price Range 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0
$8M+ $6M - $8M $4M - $6M $3M - $4M $2.5M - $3M $2M - $2.5M $1.5M - $2M $1M - $1.5M <$1M
3
Total Sales
$13.6M
Total Dollar Volume
Get Smart
4Q2021 Snapshot
3
Units Sold in 4Q2021
8% decrease from 3Q21
10% decrease from 4Q20
50% decrease from 3Q21
57% decrease from 4Q20
29% decrease from 3Q21
80% decrease from 4Q20
21
Average Days on Market
4Q2021 Quail Lodge/ Meadows Top Sales 5498 Quail Meadows Drive 5445 Quail Way 7068 Valley Greens Circle
$7,400,000 $4,604,080 $2,250,000
Indicates a Canning Properties Group Sale
Quarterly Sales by Region Quail Meadows
# of Sales
Quail Lodge
-3.2%
Average % off list price 4Q2021 Sales
Median Home Sales Price ($M)
e h t n i s t s u j d a Ne g o t i a t i n g r o o m e p o i n t s . higher pric Average Home Sales Price ($M)
Quarter
Median
YoY % Change
Quarter
Average
YoY % Change
4Q2021
$4.60
123%
4Q2021
$4.53
94%
3Q2021
$1.58
-27%
3Q2021
$2.46
1%
2Q2021
$2.40
63%
2Q2021
$2.10
42%
1Q2021
$1.68
20%
1Q2021
$1.82
-8%
4Q2020
$2.06
-37%
4Q2020
$2.33
-34%
Quail Lodge/Meadows | 18
Santa Lucia Preserve Market Overview
The Preserve topped off yet another record-setting year with two home and 6 homesite sales in 4Q2021, bringing 2021 totals to 17 homes and 34 homesites. Total home sales for the year eclipsed $85M (17.4% increase YoY) surpassing last year’s record by $16M. Total homesite sales for the year were over $29M (16% increase YoY) beating last year’s record by $4M. This year’s fourth quarter seemed to have a more normal flow after a year of dealing with COVID-19 under our belts, no political election or other adverse macroenvironment factors, allowing sales to grow by 44.8% YoY; however, falling by 30.7% QoQ due to both lower home and homesite inventory. Demand for rural, private and open space with world-class amenities continued to grow this year, compounded with record low inventory, the average home sale increased to $5.4M, up 24% from its 10-year historical average and up 18% YoY. Smaller discounts were also achieved at 5.3% for the year and 3.45% for the fourth quarter, moving in favor of sellers by 5.3% YoY and by 21.5% QoQ, further showing strong demand for the community. Days on market however grew to 71 days, up 108% from the past two quarters’ average, likely due to fewer options to choose from, however, three homes were sold off-market, which may become a new trend. Vacant land has been the beneficiary of low housing inventory with increased units sold (34 lots sold in 2021, on par with 2020 sales and up over 400% from its 10-year average). Discounts have positively continued to fall to 11.7% off (down 5.6% YoY) as more data points have helped buyers and sellers more accurately narrow in on fair market value; however, varying lot characteristics, alternative lot options, building costs and build time continue to be headwinds, keeping some downward pressure on prices. This year’s and 4Q's average homesite sale is on par with 2020 and the past four quarters at $864K and prices remain with a wide variance from $1.6M to $250K. Land inventory has significantly reduced by 31% YoY and with no homes currently on the market, and the current average list price at over $1.1M, we may anticipate prices to rise in the coming year. In addition to strong demand for its scenic real estate, the Preserve Golf Club witnessed a 30% increase in rounds of golf YoY with a nearly full membership. The Ranch Club members also enjoyed a full calendar of social and recreation activities. Furthermore, the Community has furthered water conservation measures, fuel management practices, and upgraded Club amenities, resulting in more value and pleasure for its owners and future generations. Our Team is honored once again to be the top Preserve sales team with over $64M in 2021, having represented at least one side in 7 of the 15 home transactions, with a 33% homesite market share and represented the seller in the all-time high water market home sale at $9M.
Brian Keck Preserve & Quail Specialist
19
Featured Property Photo: 11 Vasquez Trail, Santa Lucia Preserve 11Vasquez.com
4Q2021 Update Preserve
4Q2021 Sales by Price Range 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 4
$8M+ $6M - $8M $4M - $6M $3M - $4M $2.5M - $3M $2M - $2.5M $1.5M - $2M $1M - $1.5M <$1M
8
Total Sales
$15.5M
Total Dollar Volume
Get Smart
4Q2021 Snapshot
8
Units Sold in 4Q2021
247
Average Days on Market
66% decrease from 3Q21
48% increase from 4Q20
43% decrease from 3Q21
33% increase from 4Q20
57% increase from 3Q21
36% increase from 4Q20
4Q2021 Top Preserve Sales Homes Lots
31 Rancho San Carlos Road 3 Arrowmaker Trace
$6,850,000 $4,000,000
2 Penon Peak Trail 5 Corral Run 3 Corral Run 6 Rancho San Carlos Road 20 Arroyo Sequoia 34221 Robinson Canyon Road
Indicates a Canning Properties Group Sale
$1,300,000 $1,225,000 $825,000 $625,000 $350,000 $350,000
Quarterly Sales Preserve Houses
# of Sales
Preserve Lots
Homes | -3.4% Lots | -14.5%
e is r o t s e ic r p e t a ip ic t n a We through2022.
Average % off list price 4Q2021 Sales
Median Home Sales Price ($M)
Average Home Sales Price ($M)
Quarter
Median
YoY % Change
Quarter
Average
YoY % Change
4Q2021
$5.43
44%
4Q2021
$5.43
44%
3Q2021
$6.40
49%
3Q2021
$6.28
37%
2Q2021
$3.77
2%
2Q2021
$3.91
6%
1Q2021
$4.58
8%
1Q2021
$4.22
0%
4Q2020
$3.78
11%
4Q2020
$3.78
11%
Santa Lucia Preserve | 21
Featured Properties Sale Pending
Located on the Coveted 13th Fairway | 3406SeventeenMile.com
Dramatic Oceanfront Estate in the Highlands | 237Highway1.com
Modern Elegance on Padre Lane | 1471PadreLane.com
WORK WITH A TEAM. WORK WITH THE BEST.
CONGRATULATIONS
Canning Properties Group FOR TH E TH E TH E
#
BEING RECO G NI ZE D BY 2021 REAL TRE NDS & WALL ST REET J OUR NA L T HOUSAND RA NKI NG S
1
T E A M NATI ONA L LY Among Sotheby’s International Realty Teams
#
1
#
2
TEAM IN MONTEREY COUNTY
TEAM NATIONALLY BY DOLLAR VOLU ME
Among All Teams
Among All Medium Size Teams
Mike Canning | Jessica Canning | Nic Canning | Ellen Armstrong | Brian Keck Dave Reese | Caroline Garcia | Paige Colijn team@canningproperties.com | 831.238.9718 CanningProperties.com ©Sotheby’s International Realty and the Sotheby’s International Realty logo are registered (or unregistered) service marks used with permission. Operated by Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. Real estate agents affiliated with Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. are independent contractor sales associates and are not employees of Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. SIR DRE License Number:00899496
Highest Sales in the Monterey County History All Sold in 2021
3292 17 Mile Drive | Represented Buyer & Seller | $33,888,000
3398 17 Mile Drive | Represented Seller | $33,687,500
Highest Sales in the Monterey County History Continued
3368 17 Mile Drive | Represented Buyer & Seller | Price Withheld
Highest Sale in Preserve History
3 Penon Peak | Represented Seller | Price Withheld
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Canning Properties Group Top 2021 Sales 3292 17 Mile Drive
Pebble Beach
Buyer & Seller
$33,888,000
3398 17 Mile Drive
Pebble Beach
Seller
$33,687,500
3368 17 Mile Drive
Pebble Beach
Buyer & Seller
Price Withheld
3333 17 Mile Drive
Pebble Beach
Seller
$17,333,000
166 Spindrift Road
Carmel Highlands
Buyer & Seller
$16,000,000
26262 Isabella Ave
Carmel-by-the-Sea
Seller
$12,500,000
26263 Scenic Road
Carmel-by-the-Sea
Seller
$ 1 2 ,20 0,00 0
3364 17 Mile Drive
Pebble Beach
Buyer
$10,750,000
NEC Scenic & 12th
Carmel-by-the-Sea
Seller
$9,800,000
Scenic 5NE of 13th
Carmel-by-the-Sea
Buyer & Seller
$9,375,000
3 Penon Peak
Preserve
Seller
$9,000,000
3269 Cabrillo Road
Pebble Beach
Seller
$8,600,000
1139 Portola Road
Pebble Beach
Seller
$8,337,500
3340 Ondulado Road
Pebble Beach
Seller
$7,950,000
Camino Real 4SW of Ocean
Carmel-by-the-Sea
Buyer & Seller
$7,250,000
37 Rancho San Carlos Road
Preserve
Buyer & Seller
$7,000,000
3957 Ronda Road
Pebble Beach
Buyer
$7,000,000
30650 Aurora Del Mar
Carmel Highlands
Buyer
$6,995,000
1431 Viscaino
Pebble Beach
Buyer
$6,500,000
35 Rancho San Carlos Road
Preserve
Seller
$5,950,000
1228 Padre Lane
Pebble Beach
Buyer & Seller
$5,350,000
24825 Via Malpas
Carmel
Seller
$5,200,000
Casanova & 11th
Carmel-by-the-Sea
Buyer
$5,005,000
5445 Quail Way
Quail Meadows
Buyer & Seller
$4,700,000
2385 Stewart Way
Carmel
Buyer
$4,650,000
1 Mesa Trail
Preserve
Buyer
$4,575,000
6 Vasquez Trail
Preserve
Seller
$4,545,000
5465 Quail Meadows Drive
Quail Meadows
Buyer & Seller
$3,950,000
Carmelo 5NE fo Ocean
Carmel-by-the-Sea
Buyer
$3,850,000
3116 Bird Rock Road
Pebble Beach
Seller
$3,595,000
3274 Stevenson Drive
Pebble Beach
Buyer
$3,562,500
Lincoln 3NE of 10th
Carmel-by-the-Sea
Buyer
$3,500,000
NWC Camino Real & 4th
Carmel-by-the-Sea
Buyer
$3,300,000
26335 Rio Road
Carmel
Seller
$3,200,000
Carmelo 4SW of 7th
Carmel-by-the-Sea
Buyer
$3,150,000
5 Red Tail Trace
Preserve
Buyer
$3,100,000
9 Mal Paso
Carmel Highlands
Seller
$3,100,000
4079 Sunridge Road
Pebble Beach
Buyer
$2,750,000
7030 Valley Greens Circle
Quail Lodge
Seller
$2,695,000
16 Arroyo Sequoia
Preserve
Buyer & Seller
$2,625,000
2971 Colton Road
Pebble Beach
Buyer
$2,623,563
7010 Valley Greens Circle
Quail Lodge
Buyer & Seller
$2,400,000
4220 Segunda Drive
Carmel
Buyer
$2,295,000
NWC Forest & Mountain View
Carmel-by-the-Sea
Buyer
$2,025,000
Canning Properties Group Top 2021 Sales 4109 El Bosque
Pebble Beach
Buyer
$1,925,000
25623 Canada Drive
Carmel
Buyer
$1,739,209.
25747 Carmel Knolls
Carmel
Seller
$1,665,000
25635 Tierra Grande
Carmel
Buyer
$1,551,000
13 Cantera Run
Preserve
Buyer & Seller
$1,390,000
2 Penon Peak
Preserve
Buyer & Seller
$1,300,000
24805 Valley Way
Carmel
Buyer
$ 1 ,275,0 0 0
5 Corral Run
Preserve
Buyer & Seller
$1,225,000
33 Potrero Trail
Preserve
Buyer
$1,200,000
7 Abinante Way
Monterey
Seller
$1,200,000
7026 Valley Greens Circle # 15
Quail Lodge
Seller
$1,150,000
13 Touche Pass
Preserve
Seller
$975,000
70 Chamisal Pass
Preserve
Seller
$900,000
3 Corral Run
Preserve
Buyer & Seller
$825,000
281 Esquiline Road
Carmel Valley
Buyer
$655,000
37 Pronghorn Run
Preserve
Seller
$630,000
4 Holding Field Run
Preserve
Buyer
$625,000
6 Rancho San Carlos Road
Preserve
Buyer & Seller
$625,000
250 Forest Ridge #39
Monterey
Seller
$600,000
17 Chamisal Pass
Preserve
Buyer & Seller
$500,000
4 San Clemente Trail
Preserve
Buyer & Seller
$355,000
8 San Clemente Trail
Preserve
Buyer & Seller
$300,000
*Source: Statistics pulled from MLS as of 1/1/2022
Featured Property: 3188 17 Mile Drive, Pebble Beach Coming Soon
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