4Q22 Market Update

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Mike Canning DRE#01004964 831.596.1171 mike@mikecanning.com Jessica Canning DRE# 01920034 831.238.5535 jessica@canningproperties.com Nic Canning DRE# 01959355 831.241.4458 nic@canningproperties.com Ellen Armstrong DRE# 02046046 831.204.2204 ellen@canningproperties.com Brian Keck DRE# 02070480 831.238.8730 brian@canningproperties.com Dave Reese DRE# 02121762 831.272.2172 dave@canningproperties.com Caroline Garcia MARKETING 717.318.8003 caroline@canningproperties.com Paige Colijn DRE# 02168140 831.710.1655 paige@canningproperties.com Kelly Savukinas DRE# 02053030 831.238.8443 kelly@canningproperties.com Seth Reese EXECUTIVE ASSISTANT 831.298.9909 seth@canningproperties.com Anita Jones DRE# 01926760 831.595.0797 anita@canningproperties.com Spiro Pettas DRE# 02066568 831.214.3377 spiro@canningproperties.com 4Q22 Market Update

Overview

The old adage that real estate is all about location, location, location, is playing true to how the market is emerging from the COVID surge followed by the Fed’s interest rate jolts. Across the country, deal flow tightened with each rate hike as buyers reevaluated the landscape and sellers held out for more money, hoping the market would recover. Around here, buyers were the quickest to adjust expectations regarding what they can buy, but the price for sellers to move also doubled, so with each rate hike inventory tightened further. That is not the case in the places that saw the fastest appreciation rates in the COVID years; these areas are seeing large spikes in inventory and therefore prices are softening. As such, the drop in prices that we’re reading about in national headlines aren't directly translating to our area. We did see the median sales price dip to $1.66M this quarter, down from the first quarter but still well above last year.

For those who have read our quarterly updates for a long time, we’re very excited to announce that we’re now adding specialists in Pacific Grove, Monterey, Tehama, Monterra and Carmel Valley Ranch. We added these areas in response to demands from clients and because we’ve seen a lot of growth and overlap of clients moving throughout the area, beyond just Pebble Beach and Carmel. We’ve updated our historical charts to account for these regions, so some of these numbers may look different from before - they’re more comprehensive about this community and shows more insight across all price spectrums.

The fourth quarter brought in just 126 deals for $252M, which is the slowest quarter since the last market correction in 2008 and far below historic averages (204 deals and $385M). The second half of the year also dragged the 2022 numbers to just 679 sales, a 37% drop in activity from last year and the slowest year in over a decade. However, the tight inventory has held prices up, so the total invested came in at $1.9B which is just 24% off last year and actually 39% higher than 2019. For those sellers who do bring their house to the market, this area has gone back to standard practice of negotiating off list price. Rather than assuming you’ll get multiple offers and sell well above list, buyers are now more thoughtful and slower moving, resulting in an average of 3% off list pricehistorically standard from this area.

All things considered, this market continues to be strong and steady, and we anticipate this to continue throughout 2023. We’ll likely see our usual uptick in new listings after the New Year - especially in the summer - but we don’t anticipate seeing a plunge in prices like many buyers hope for. It’s looking increasingly likely that the prices set during the past couple of years will hold through the next market cycle.

Cover Home: 19 Long Ridge, Santa Lucia Preserve 19LongRidge.com

4Q2022

$8M+ 5 $6.0M-$8.0M 7 $4.0M-$6.0M 10 $3.0M-$4.0M 13 $2.5M-$3.0M 7 $2.0M-$2.5M 17 $1.5M-$2.0M 18 $1.0M-$1.5M 26 <$1.0M 23

126
Sales
Total
Sales by Price Range
Information believed to be reliable as obtained from the Monterey County Association of Realtors database and known off market transactions.
Annual Sales
Area YoY % Change
Carmel
Overall
Average Sales Price ($M)
Area YoY % Change
Median Sales Price ($M) Market Insight ALL REGIONS
Total
4Q2022
$3.94
9% $5.10 Carmel Highlands 27% $5.07 Pebble Beach 26% $3.39 Quail -25% $6.38 Preserve 18% $1.42 Pacific Grove -10% N/A Carmel Valley Ranch N/A $1.10 Monterey -4% $4.93 Tehama/Monterra 76% $2.78
9%
4Q2022
$3.20 Carmel 3% $5.10 Carmel Highlands 62% $2.62 Pebble Beach -2% $3.39 Quail -26% $6.38 Preserve 18% $1.15 Pacific Grove -8% N/A Carmel Valley Ranch N/A $1.12 Monterey 10% $4.93 Tehama/Monterra 76% $1.66 Overall -4%
4Q2022 Update ALL REGIONS Sales Price Range 4Q2021 4Q2022 2H 2021 2H 2022 10 Year Average 4Q Sales 10 Year Average 2H Sales <$1.0M $252M 23 130 52 81 176 $1.0M-$1.5M 56 26 115 69 43 91
42 18 90 51 27 56
17 17 35 31 14 30
17 7 36 14 8 18
28 13 42 31 12 25
21 10 36 18 11 20
5 7 11 14 4 8 $8M+ 12 5 20 13 4 8 Total Sales 258 126 515 293 204 432 Quarterly Sales by Region Quail Monterey Pebble Beach Preserve Pacific Grove Carmel # of Sales Monterra & Tehama Carmel Valley Ranch Carmel Highlands
$1.5M-$2.0M
$2.0M-$2.5M
$2.5M-$3.0M
$3.0M-$4.0M
$4.0M-$6.0M
$6.0M-$8.0M

Pebble Beach Market Overview

The Pebble Beach market continued its cooling trend as forecasted in the 4th quarter of 2022 with slower deal flow than the previous quarter (-25%) as well as its seasonally adjusted averages (-36%). Even with this downward trend in activity throughout the 2nd half of the year, Pebble Beach closed out ‘22 with 109 sales invested in a total of $576.20M, which is the third highest on record for Pebble Beach.

Bolstered by a strong undercurrent of demand for top-tier properties in Pebble Beach, median sales prices in the ocean-view driven area of Central Pebble rose to $7.62M (+14.6% QoQ) while the Monterey Peninsula Country Club (MPCC) and Upper Forest areas dipped slightly to $2.26M (-0.6% QoQ) and $1.79M (-9.6% QoQ) respectively. The slight drop in values for the MPCC area was not a representation of demand, but rather a reflection of the properties that sold this quarter in the lower price points for that area. With a substantial (and growing) waitlist to join MPCC, we anticipate there to be ample demand continuing into 2023 – in particular for the coveted golf front properties in the Country Club West area.

The luxury market ($8M+) in Pebble Beach capped off a strong year with 3 closed escrows in the 4th quarter ($28M, $10.9M and $9.275M), bringing the total transactions to 19 sales, just shy of the record 23 sales posted in 2021. The middle price brackets ($4M-$6M and $6M-$8M) slightly outperformed seasonally adjusted averages (+16.7%) in the final quarter as demand for quality product outpaced thinning supplies in these price points. The lower price brackets (<$2.5M) experienced a substantial dip in sales – well below seasonal adjusted averages (-57%) – as razor thin inventory levels struggled to keep up with demand for Pebble’s entry-level market. Interestingly, Pebble Beach has yet to see a strong influence of rising interest rates as it remained a predominantly cash-based market throughout 2022. In fact, less than 15% of the deals that occurred in the 4th quarter involved a loan.

As we begin to shift away from the heavily favored Sellers’ market that occurred over the course of the pandemic and approach more balanced market conditions, there will be a transitionary period over the winter months with differing expectations on values between Sellers and Buyers. On the sell side, some Sellers will be reluctant to adjust their pricing strategies down from the pandemic peaks while others will adapt to the current market norms – thus attracting more Buyers and potentially cultivating deals. On the buy side, Buyers will become increasingly price sensitive and will be seeking more leverage at the negotiation table - putting downward pressure on list and sales prices. We’ll continue to track these evolving market trends heading into 2023, but one trend from the pandemic appears to be here to stay: the work-from home lifestyle, which continues to positively influence our local markets.

Featured Property Photo: 3364 17 Mile Drive, Pebble Beach 336417Mile.com

Nic Canning pebble specialist

$8M+ 3

3 $3.0M-$4.0M 2 $2.5M-$3.0M 2 $2.0M-$2.5M 8 $1.5M-$2.0M 3 $1.0M-$1.5M 1

17% decrease from 3Q22

54% decrease from4Q21

4% increase from 3Q22 42% decrease from 4Q21 21% increase from 3Q22

4Q2022 Update PEBBLE BEACH
4Q2022 Top Pebble Beach Sales
Sales by Price Range 24 Total Sales *Indicates a Canning Properties Group Sale
$116.5M
Dollar Volume 24 Units
57 Average Days on Market Get Smart
Snapshot
$6.0M-$8.0M 2 $4.0M-$6.0M
<$1.0M 0 1691 Crespi Lane $28,000,000 3204 Palmero Way $10,900,000 1606 Sonado Road $9,275,000 1475 Padre Lane $7,750,000* 3298 Stevenson Drive $7,500,000 68 Spanish Bay Circle $5,950,000 1439 Oleada Road $5,683,310* 1525 Deer Path $4,800,000 936 Sand Dunes Road $3,355,000 1414 Alva Lane $3,105,000*
1168 Arroyo Drive $2,820,500 2806 Forest Lodge Road $2,795,000 2952 Stevenson Drive $2,450,000 4041 Los Altos Drive $2,400,000 1085 Trappers Trail $2,295,000 2876 Forest Lodge Road $2,225,000 SWC Portola & Alva Lane $2,195,000* 1116 Presidio Road $2,165,000* 3104 Flavin Lane $2,130,000 2984 Crescent Road $2,075,000 4Q2022
40% decrease from 4Q21
Total
Sold in 4Q2022
4Q2022

4Q2022 $2.62 -2%

3Q2022 $2.57 -12%

2Q2022 $3.14 -10%

4Q2022 $5.07 26%

3Q2022 $4.00 -13%

2Q2022 $5.13 12%

4Q2022 Update PEBBLE BEACH
Median YoY % Change
Quarter
Home Sales Price ($M)
1Q2022 $3.35 22% 4Q2021 $2.66 15% Median
YoY % Change
Quarter Average
Home Sales Price ($M)
% off list price
Sales -4% # of Sales Deal
in the 4th quarter saw a return to traditional norms for the area.
Sales by Region
1Q2022 $7.65 89% 4Q2021 $4.01 9% Average
Average
4Q2022
negotiations
Central Pebble Beach MPCC Upper Forest Quarterly

Carmel Market Overview

Carmel deal flow has been increasingly squeezed by tight inventory levels, resulting in a slower quarter than when the market shut down in 2Q20 for the COVID lockdowns. We saw just 28 deals close in 4Q, which is less than half what we saw this quarter last year (59).

As always, the Golden Rectangle had another strong quarter with 9 sales, leading all other regions. Northeast Carmel had a surprising drop in activity to just 5 deals, down from 13 last quarter. We think this is an anomaly as the other regions were only down slightly or even with last quarter. Hatton Fields continues to benefit from the work from home demographic, with 4 deals closing this quarter and strong demand for this combination of location and house size. Northwest and Southeast Carmel had just 3 deals each, which is low historically, but this is due to tight inventory. Carmel Point had just 3 deals this quarter but continues to have the highest median sales price in all of Carmel ($4.6M).

Carmel closed $107M this quarter, which is down 3% from last quarter and less than half that of 4Q21 ($210M). This dip in invested dollars isn’t surprising considering the deal flow levels. The median price for a house in Carmel is up to $2.69M, which is a 50% climb from 2019. What’s somewhat remarkable is that all regions in Carmel are now averaging above $2M for a house - even for fixers. In 2012, the median sales price was just $1.14M and below a million in Hatton Fields and Northeast Carmel, both of which have tripled in value over the past decade. We’re continuing to see strong demand across the entire price spectrum, with deal flow evenly distributed across all price brackets. There were 5 sales north of $6M and 6 sales below $2M, which shows healthy demand across all regions and prices.

Pricing and willingness to negotiate are paramount for sellers right now. Even with tight inventory and some buyers circling, average days on market has stretched up to 40 for houses that closed this quarter. That’s almost triple what it was in 2Q22 (15). Buyers also need to appreciate that although we are getting to negotiate again, it’s not going to be the fire sale they’re hoping for. Overall, this market is proving its strength and resiliency and we anticipate seeing that continue, albeit slowly, throughout next year.

Visit DiscreetProperties.com to view all upcoming and off market listings.

Jessica Canning carmel specialist

4Q2022 Sales by Price Range

$8M+ 2 $6.0M-$8.0M 3 $4.0M-$6.0M 3 $3.0M-$4.0M 6 $2.5M-$3.0M 3 $2.0M-$2.5M 5 $1.5M-$2.0M 5 $1.0M-$1.5M 1 <$1.0M 0

$107.4M

3% decrease from 3Q22 49% decrease from 4Q21

20% decrease from 3Q22 40

Average Days on Market

4Q2022

Scenic 6 SE of 8th $13,700,000

San Antonio 2 NW of 11th $9,400,000

Dolores 7 SW 13th $6,928,000

Lincoln 4 NW of Santa Lucia $6,500,000

26357 Scenic Road $6,250,000

Lopez 12 NE of 4th $5,775,000

2836 Santa Lucia Avenue $4,495,000

Monte Verde 3 NE of 13th $4,000,000 26277 Isabella Avenue $3,995,000

10th Avenue 3 SE of San Carlos $3,650,000

53% decrease from 4Q21

23% increase from 3Q22 1% increase from 4Q21

SWC of Lincoln & 8th $3,500,000 N Casanova 4 SE of 2nd $3,400,000 Casanova 2 SW of 8th $3,290,000 Mission 2NW of Vista $3,200,000 2 NE 1st Avenue $2,900,000

NWC Casanova & 12th $2,700,000

NEC Sterling & Perry Newberry Way $2,500,000 Junipero 5NE of 10th $2,480,000 3511 Mesa Court $2,400,000 5th Ave 2SW of Juniper $2,300,000

4Q2022
CARMEL
Update
Total Dollar Volume 28 Units Sold in 4Q2022
Top Carmel Sales Get Smart
4Q2022 Snapshot
28
Total Sales

4Q2022

4Q2022 Update CARMEL
Sales by Region
Median YoY % Change
Quarterly
Quarter
Home Sales Price ($M)
Average YoY % Change
4Q2022 $3.20 3% 3Q2022 $2.60 5% 2Q2022 $2.90 16% 1Q2022 $2.76 38% 4Q2021 $3.11 42% Median
Quarter
Home Sales Price ($M)
% off list price 4Q2022 Sales -3% # of Sales Carmel Point Golden Rectangle Northeast Carmel Northwest Carmel Southeast Carmel Price negotiations have eased slowly back into the market, albeit at a lower rate than what buyers are hoping for. Hatton Fields
$3.94 9% 3Q2022 $3.17 5% 2Q2022 $3.14 7% 1Q2022 $3.47 32% 4Q2021 $3.61 27% Average
Average

Carmel Highlands Market Overview

The Carmel Meadows and Carmel Highlands real estate markets have always been atypical for the general Monterey Peninsula area, but the last half of 2022 in these two markets has been a display of extremes. Some examples are:

» The Carmel Meadows area had a strong start to the year with 5 sales—4 of those within the second quarter—but the area has not seen one sale, let alone a single listing, since 2Q22.

» The Carmel Highlands set the record for the highest priced sale in Monterey County this year with the off-market acquisition of the D L James House by actor Brad Pitt for a reported $40M.

» After averaging 8 sales a quarter for the last 3 years, the Highlands only had 2* sales last quarter, making 4Q22 the slowest quarter for real estate dealflow since 1Q20.

» Even removing the anomaly of the $40M Brad Pitt sale from the mix, the average sold price in the Highlands this past year sits at a little over $6M (with a median of $4M). This compared to $4.5M (with a median of $3.2M) for 2021 and $3.5M (with a median of 2.8M) for 2020.

» There are currently 8 homes actively listed and 1 contingent in the Highlands with an average list price of over $8M.

Even with the wild swings and seemingly discordant stats, one clear trend in the Highlands and Meadows markets over the last year is that home prices continue to rise. And with the geographically determined, limited inventory of these areas, we expect prices to remain strong even as other area markets soften in 2023. This past year has shown us that buyers who want to be in the Carmel Meadows and Highlands are willing to pay premium prices to be there.

If you currently own in the Carmel Highlands or Carmel Meadows areas, regular maintenance and capital improvements have proved to be wise investments for your neighbors who have seen significant returns from the market over the last couple of years. If you’d like to discuss the value of your property or listing it for sale, please reach out and we will schedule time to meet with you at your earliest convenience. Also, keep an eye out for some exciting new listings we anticipate bringing to market early next year!

*Canning Properties is honored to have represented the sellers of 1 of the only 2 properties that sold last quarter in the Highlands

161 Spindrift Road, Carmel Highlands - Sold in 4Q2022 161Spindrift.com
Dave Reese highlands specialist

$8M+ 0 $6.0M-$8.0M 1 $4.0M-$6.0M 0 $3.0M-$4.0M 1 $2.5M-$3.0M 0 $2.0M-$2.5M 0 $1.5M-$2.0M 0 $1.0M-$1.5M 0 <$1.0M 0 126% increase from 4Q21

4Q2022 Update CARMEL HIGHLANDS
$10.2M Total Dollar Volume 2 Units Sold in 4Q2022 126 Average Days on Market 4Q2022 Top Carmel Highlands Sales Get Smart 4Q2022 Snapshot
Price
309 Mt Devon Road $6,600,000 161 Spindrift Road $3,600,000* 2 Total Sales *Indicates a Canning Properties Group Sale
4Q2022 Sales by
Range 71% decrease from 3Q22 67% decrease from 4Q21 86% decrease from 3Q22 58% decrease from 4Q21 93% increase from 3Q22

Quarter

4Q2022 $5.10 62%

3Q2022 $3.71 44%

2Q2022 $5.20 -29%

1Q2022 $4.00 30%

Quarter

4Q2022 $5.10 27%

3Q2022 $5.74 96%

2Q2022 $5.50 -26%

4Q2022 Update CARMEL HIGHLANDS
Median YoY % Change
Home Sales Price ($M)
4Q2021 $3.15 11% Median
% Change
Average YoY
Home Sales Price ($M)
average list price of homes for sale in the Carmel Highlands $8.9M # of Sales
Highlands Carmel Meadows Buyers are consistently paying premium prices to be in these areas.
Sales by Region
1Q2022 $6.42 66% 4Q2021 $4.01 14% Average
Current
Carmel
Quarterly

Quail Lodge/Meadows Market Overview

Quail was perhaps the best positioned market in this area to benefit from the COVID bump. Combining equally easy access to town and nature, while being located in perfect weather, it’s truly hard to beat and the market now appreciates it. However, the 13 sales that happened in 2Q21 are likely never to be seen again and it’s understandable to move back down to 2 sales this quarter, which is closer to the historic average for this area. What is remarkable is that the median sales price for Quail Lodge is up to $3.33M this year, which is over twice last year ($1.77M) and 398% higher than it was a decade ago. Prices in Quail Lodge are now surpassing that of MPCC (median of $2.29M this year). Given the world-renowned nature of Pebble Beach, this really is remarkable. Quail Lodge may be benefitting from the prestige and market awareness that comes with the Quail Motorsports event each year.

The two sales this quarter were both in Quail Lodge: 8072 Lake Place closed for $3.775M and 8004 River Place sold for $3.0M. The Lake Place home was bought back in 2020 for $2.1M and underwent an extensive renovation. This house is a bit larger than most homes in Quail Lodge, with over 3,200 sq.ft., so the higher price is to be expected. 8004 River Place last sold for $1.881M in 2018 and had been partially updated. However, this house only has 2 bedrooms, which is below average for this area and factored into the pricing.

Quail Meadows didn’t have any sales this quarter, although we are seeing strong demand for move-in homes in the valley, so we anticipate that to change after the New Year.

There are currently no active listings in Quail Lodge or the Meadows, including condos and lots. However, demand is much weaker now than it was during 2020-2021. So, sellers should be ready to come a bit off list price (an average of 5% this quarter) and be patient as we all adjust back to our old pace of sales and inventory around here.

Visit DiscreetProperties.com to view all upcoming and off market listings.

Jessica

$8M+ 0 $6.0M-$8.0M 0 $4.0M-$6.0M 0 $3.0M-$4.0M 2 $2.5M-$3.0M 0 $2.0M-$2.5M 0 $1.5M-$2.0M 0 $1.0M-$1.5M 0 <$1.0M 0

4Q2022 Update QUAIL LODGE / MEADOWS
4Q2022 Quail Lodge & Meadows Sales
Price
$6.78M Total Dollar Volume
2 Units Sold in 4Q2022 48 Average Days on Market Get Smart 4Q2022 Snapshot
8072 Lake Place $3,775,000 8004 River Place $3,000,000 2 Total Sales
4Q2022 Sales by
Range
36% increase from 4Q21
100% increase from 3Q22 126% increase from 3Q22 50% decrease from 4Q21 47% decrease from 3Q22 33% decrease from 4Q21
4Q2022 Update QUAIL LODGE / MEADOWS
Median YoY % Change
Quarter
Median Home Sales Price ($M)
Average YoY % Change
4Q2022 $3.39 -26% 3Q2022 $3.00 90% 2Q2022 $3.65 52% 1Q2022 $3.85 129% 4Q2021 $4.60 123%
Quarter
Average Home Sales Price ($M) Quarterly Sales by Region Average % off list price 4Q2022 Sales -5% # of Sales
Lodge Quail Meadows Sellers willing to negotiate are still getting premium numbers right now in Quail.
4Q2022 $3.39 -25% 3Q2022 $3.00 22% 2Q2022 $4.53 116% 1Q2022 $3.43 89% 4Q2021 $4.53 94%
Quail

Pacific Grove Market Overview

As we close out 2022, we are once again seeing solid sales in the town of Pacific Grove. We are still experiencing trends of low inventory, but with prices holding steady. Last month, the median sales price was $1.37M, up 28% from 2021. The MSI (Month’s Supply Inventory) for November was 23, up 21% from September.

When looking back on 2022, Pacific Grove had a lower number of total sales, with slightly lower median and sales prices than 2021. The year started out strong, with tight inventory and multiple offers coming in over list price. Going into Q2, we started seeing interest rates increase slightly, a few reductions in price, but still low days on market and multiple offers. As we got closer to Q3, over half of the inventory was being reduced and pricing was the name of the game. We started hearing the term “market correction” and buyers started to pay attention. This brings us to Q4, with tight inventory (14 listings currently active) we can continue to see Pacific Grove being competitive for buyers.

Reviewing sales in Q4, we are seeing most activity in the areas of Washington Park (12 sales to date) and the area of Forest Avenue (8 sales to date). Total sales to date are 30 to include all areas of Pacific Grove, compared to 45 sales in Q4 2021.

Let’s take a step back and review some highlights from Q4 2022 for Pacific Grove:

» Q4 average DOM was 35 days with a total of 30 sales, averaging $1.4.

» 2021 median sales price for Q4 was $1.2M compared to median 2022 Q4 median sales price of $1.15M.

» Highest price sale in Q4 was $3.2M on Ocean View Blvd, Central Ave area.

Pacific Grove sparkles and shines with new restaurants and shops, lots of local activities and festive events. It’s a great time to walk the quaint streets and enjoy what the small town has to offer. Looking ahead at 2023, we see inflation and interest rates falling (how far and fast is tough to call) which should help buyers and allow more sellers to consider selling. Inventory is predicted to remain tight, but houses will likely stay on the market longer. Negotiating will be key for buyers and pricing will be important for sellers.

Please contact me if you would like a market analysis for your home or if you are looking to move to Pacific Grove, please reach out. Our team would love to walk you through our process! Happy Holidays!

Visit DiscreetProperties.com to view all upcoming and off market listings.

Kelly

4Q2022 Sales by Price Range 32

Total Sales

$8M+ 0 $6.0M-$8.0M 0 $4.0M-$6.0M 0 $3.0M-$4.0M 2 $2.5M-$3.0M 2 $2.0M-$2.5M 3 $1.5M-$2.0M 4 $1.0M-$1.5M 10 <$1.0M 11

$46.8M

Total Dollar Volume

Get Smart

4Q2022 Snapshot

38% decrease from 3Q22 34% decrease from 4Q21

32

Units Sold in 4Q2022 35 Average Days on Market

36% decrease from 3Q22 29% decrease from 4Q21

27% decrease from 3Q22

4Q2022 Top Pacific Grove Sales

193 Ocean View Boulevard $3,200,000 106 Grand Avenue $3,100,000 1124 Balboa Avenue $2,750,000 923 14th Street $2,630,000 640 Gibson Avenue $2,372,000 187 Sloat Avenue $2,250,000 704 Granite Street $2,120,000 1289 Bishop Place $1,700,000 1132 Pico Avenue $1,695,000 138 9th Street $1,670,000 816 Maple Street $1,525,000

16% increase from 4Q21

608 Congress Avenue $1,499,000 511 Gibson Avenue $1,482,500 56 Country Club Gate Drive #56 $1,426,000 502 Platt Court $1,315,000 1117 Presidio Boulevard $1,150,000 111 19th Street $1,150,000 156 Forest Avenue $1,140,000 642 Sunset Drive $1,100,000 524 Crocker Avenue $1,016,000 309 9th Street $1,000,000

4Q2022
PACIFIC GROVE
Update

4Q2022 $1.15 -8%

3Q2022 $1.38 6%

2Q2022 $1.39 15%

1Q2022 $1.60 14% 4Q2021 $1.25 16%

Quarter

4Q2022 $1.42 -10%

3Q2022 $1.55 3%

2Q2022 $1.51 8%

4Q2022 Update PACIFIC GROVE
YoY % Change
Quarter Median
Sales
Median Home
Price ($M)
Average YoY % Change
Sales
of Sales Beach/Asilomar Central Ave/Downtown Downtown PG Washington Park/Pine Candy Cane Lane Country Club/Forest Hill/Del Monte Park
1Q2022 $1.70 9% 4Q2021 $1.59 24% Average Home Sales Price ($M) Quarterly
#
pricing
inventory
demand.
Average % off list price 4Q2022 Sales -1% Looking ahead,
will be increasingly important, especially with low
and high

Monterey Market Overview

As 2022 came to a close, looming uncertainty about the economy and what lies ahead seemed to be a holiday topic impossible to avoid. With interest rates at 3.22% to start the year and more than double that as 2022 came to an end, it’s safe to say we’re all trying to wrap our heads around what 2023 will bring. While the last few years have forced us to accept a new “normal” in many capacities, the housing market volatility we saw during the prime of the pandemic appears to be stabilizing as the Monterey market is experiencing a much-needed calibration.

The Monterey market started to see inventory levels taper off in the 4th quarter of 2022, with fewer homes for sale (-35%) than we saw the previous quarter and nearly half as many listings as the 4th quarter of 2021. During the final quarter of the year, we finally started to see homes consistently selling for less than asking in all parts of Monterey. The average sale price was at least (-2%) below the list price, while during the same quarter last year the average sale price was (1%) above asking.

Move-in ready homes and those with ocean views remained in high demand throughout most of 2022, with strategically priced properties in Monterey’s more desirable neighborhoods continuing to sell even as the available supply leveled off. Properties caught in the market swing that were mispriced as the market began adjusting grappled with finding Buyers and were driven to reduce their original listing price to meet the new demand…or lack thereof. This is a healthy sign for those who struggled to find the right buy during the bidding frenzy we experienced the last few years.

Ultimately, during the 4th quarter of 2022 there were 32 home sales throughout the core of the Monterey market. This is a meager 2 less home sales than the previous quarter while a drastic decrease compared to the 4th quarter last year when we had 71 home sales to end 2021. However, these sales numbers and current inventory levels are much more in line with historical averages and the anticipated market trajectory that was expected prior to the housing boom caused by the pandemic.

As the market continues to correct in 2023, we expect both Sellers and Buyers to be more value conscious and discerning with their transactions. Knowing the market and pricing accordingly will be more imperative than years past, as interest rates remain speculative and inventory levels tighten across the entire Peninsula.

Visit DiscreetProperties.com to view all upcoming and off market listings.

4Q2022

$8M+ 0 $6.0M-$8.0M 0 $4.0M-$6.0M 0 $3.0M-$4.0M 0 $2.5M-$3.0M 0 $2.0M-$2.5M 0 $1.5M-$2.0M 6 $1.0M-$1.5M 14 <$1.0M 12

4Q2022 Update MONTEREY
Sales by Price Range 32 Total Sales $35.2M
Dollar Volume
32 Units Sold in 4Q2022 33 Average Days on Market Get Smart
Snapshot
Top
Sales
Total
6% increase from 4Q21
4Q2022
6% decrease from 3Q22 55% decrease from 4Q21 10% decrease from 3Q22 57% decrease from 4Q21 21% increase from 3Q22 1594 Josselyn Canyon Road $1,938,550 781 Grace Street $1,600,000 1237 Josselyn Canyon Road $1,594,817 252 Via Gayuba $1,550,000 630 Terry Street $1,500,000 48 Cuesta Vista Drive $1,500,000 1449 Deer Flat Road $1,450,000 1690 Via Casoli $1,425,001 701 Fernwood Avenue $1,362,600 18 La Playa Street $1,349,000 4Q2022
Monterey
1630 Josselyn Canyon Road $1,250,000 50 Via Encanto $1,245,000 3 Forest Knoll Road $1,199,000 646 Newton Street $1,199,000 19 Skyline Crest Drive $1,150,000 989 Jefferson Street $1,140,000 857 Hawthorne Street $1,100,000 18 Via Ladera $1,095,000 12 Soledad Drive $1,050,000 885 Grace Street $1,025,000

4Q2022

4Q2022 Update MONTEREY
Median YoY % Change
Quarter
4Q2022 $1.12 10%
3Q2022 $1.10 17%
Median Home Sales Price ($M)
Average YoY % Change
2Q2022 $1.22 29% 1Q2022 $1.13 19% 4Q2021 $1.02 16%
Quarter
Average Home Sales Price ($M) Quarterly Sales # of Sales Monte Vista/Skyline New Monterey Alta Mesa/Peter's Gate Golf Course/Flats Old Town
% off list price 4Q2022 Sales -2% Knowing the market and pricing accordingly will be more imperative than years past.
$1.10 -4% 3Q2022 $1.16 14% 2Q2022 $1.28 21% 1Q2022 $1.20 27% 4Q2021 $1.15 33%
Average

Carmel Valley Ranch Market Overview

Hello! My name is Paige Colijn and I’m excited to introduce myself. I’m a Monterey Peninsula native and an agent with Canning Properties Group, honored to represent the stunning Carmel Valley Ranch region. Carmel Valley Ranch offers an incredible lifestyle that is very attractive and desirable.

For a refresher of what took place during 2021, the Ranch had a total of 25 sales with an average sales price of $1.78M and the average days on market was 25. Looking at 2022 with a total of 9 home sales, we’ve seen a 64% decrease in units sold and a 62% decrease in total dollars transacted. The average sales price for 2022 was $1.88M with an average of 27 days on market, which is fascinating because even with extremely limited inventory, home sale prices in your area still saw a 5.6% increase.

As we close out 2022 for the 4th Quarter, Carmel Valley Ranch had low activity with zero sales as there were no active listings on the market. This information is valuable if you’re thinking of selling as demand remains strong as this area is very attractive to many buyers, both locally and those from out of town.

Looking ahead in 2023, with zero homes currently on the market or pending, this is proving to still be a seller’s market and they’ll continue to have negotiating power given the demand. Due to the lack of sales this quarter, the analysis that follows is a more comprehensive look at the market over the past several years.

On behalf of myself and the Canning Team, we’re pleased to provide this analysis about your community and always welcome any feedback or questions. If you are curious on your home’s value, I would be pleased to meet with you and provide you with a Comparable Market Analysis and discuss any of your real estate needs. Feel free to reach out and I genuinely look forward to connecting with you.

Paige Colijn carmel & carmel valley ranch specialist
Visit DiscreetProperties.com to view all upcoming and off market listings.

$8M+

2022 Update CARMEL VALLEY RANCH
2022 Sales by Price Range 9 Total Sales $16.9M Total Dollar Volume in 2022 71% increase from 2021 9 Units Sold in 2022 29 Average Days on Market in 2022 Get Smart 2022 Snapshot 64% decrease from 2021 62% decrease from 2021 9687 Sycamore Court $2,455,000 9391 Holt Road $2,100,000 28006 Oakshire Drive $2,050,000 10503 Fairway Court $2,050,000 10720 Locust Court $1,955,000 10460 Fairway Lane $1,795,000 9904 Club Place Lane $1,615,000 9923 Club Place Lane $1,600,000 9802 Club Place Lane $1,330,000 2022 Top Carmel Valley Ranch Sales
0 $6.0M-$8.0M 0 $4.0M-$6.0M 0 $3.0M-$4.0M 0 $2.5M-$3.0M 0 $2.0M-$2.5M 4 $1.5M-$2.0M 4 $1.0M-$1.5M 1 <$1.0M 0

Year

2022 Update CARMEL VALLEY RANCH Median Home Sales Price ($M)
Average YoY % Change
Average YoY % Change
9%
28%
13%
Average Home Sales Price ($M) Quarterly Sales # of Sales
Average % off list price 2022 Sales -3% Minimal movement negotiating off list price as demand remains high.
2022 1.28 6% 2021 1.78 20% 2020 1.48 15% 2019 1.29 1% 2018 1.28 6% Year
2022 1.955
2021 1.7895
2020 1.4025
2019 1.241 -5% 2018 1.3 18%
Carmel Valley Ranch

Santa Lucia Preserve Market Overview

An eventful Autumn season concluded with vibrant Community activities including the Annual Mushroom Hunt, the 31st Annual Stocker Cup, Inaugural NCAA Cal Poly Men’s Golf Invitational, Princeton A Capella Concert, equestrian clinics, pickle ball socials, paint and sip, K9 hikes and many more fun activities. With ~ 141 built homes, ~ 19 under construction, and over 40 in the design and permit process, demand remains high, the Club remains very healthy, and scarcity has set in with finished homes and should as well with vacant land.

With 2 home and 3 homesite sales, 4Q22 had a very strong quarter with $19.45M invested in the Preserve (up 163% QoQ and up 25% YoY). The 5 total home sales for the year equaled $29.55M (down 64% YoY) and the 15 homesite sales equaled $19.14M (down 34% YoY). Due to low inventory levels, total sales were down, however, prices continue to move up with 4Q22 median home prices at $6.38M (up 8.1% QoQ and up 17.5% YoY). The market is not homogenous, however, as a variety of styles, sizes, views, and locations can heavily sway the discounts or premiums and days on market, i.e. there were three offers, two over ask in just 9 days with the final sale going 5% over ask at beautiful 5 Touche Pass, while the other home sale took 179 days and sold at a 13% discount.

Vacant land sales also had a strong finish to the year yielding $6.7M in total sales (up 346.6% QoQ and up 43.3% YoY) including the notable 8 & 10 Rancho San Carlos “Animus 2” parcel for $5.1M. Discounts however grew a few percentage points to 16% off ask, but days on market significantly shrunk to just an average of 52 days, including an off-market sale at beautiful 35 Pronghorn Run for $1.6M.

Our team is once again honored to be the top Preserve broker and represented both the buyer and seller at 14 San Clemente Trail, 5 Touche Pass, both 8 & 10 Rancho San Carlos Road, and the buyer at 35 Pronghorn Run. We currently have the only house listed (at 19 Long Ridge for $13M) and will continue to work hard to serve the Community’s real estate needs.

After the buyer’s frenzy of the past two years, buying up years of inventory, we have seen deal flow plateau and begin to taper in line with lower inventory; however, demand remains strong for quality homes on the smaller side with views located near the Clubs or front gate regions. We anticipate prices to remain flat to slightly increasing, but don’t forget, they are elevated 30%+ from three years ago.

Featured Property Photo: 19 Longridge Trail, Carmel 19Longridge.com Brian

$8M+ 0 $6.0M-$8.0M 1 $4.0M-$6.0M 2 $3.0M-$4.0M 0 $2.5M-$3.0M 0 $2.0M-$2.5M 0 $1.5M-$2.0M 1 $1.0M-$1.5M 0 <$1.0M 0

4Q2022 Update *Indicates a Canning Properties Group Sale SANTA LUCIA PRESERVE
4Q2022 Preserve Sales Homes Lots 4Q2022 Sales by Price Range 4 Total Sales $19.4M Total Dollar Volume 71% decrease from 4Q21 4 Units Sold in 4Q2022 73 Average Days on Market Get Smart 4Q2022 Snapshot 33% increase from 3Q22 50% decrease from 4Q21 163% increase from 3Q22 25% increase from 4Q21 66% decrease from 3Q22 5 Touche Pass $7,300,000* 14 San Clemente Trail $5,450,000* 8 & 10 Rancho San Carlos Road $5,100,000* 35 Pronghorn Run $1,600,000*

Median

4Q2022 $6.38 18%

3Q2022 $5.90 -8%

2Q2022 $5.20 38%

1Q2022 $0.00 -100%

Accurately

homes will

Home Sales Price ($M) # of Sales Preserve Lots Preserve Houses

Quarter

Average YoY % Change

3Q2022 $5.90 -6%

2Q2022 $5.20 33%

1Q2022 $0.00 -100%

4Q2022 Update SANTA LUCIA PRESERVE
Quarter Median YoY % Change
4Q2021 $5.43 44% Home Sales Price ($M)
4Q2022 $6.38 18%
priced
sell faster
off list price for homes
4Q2021 $5.43 44% Sales
Average
and closer to ask. -4.2% Average %
Quarterly

Tehama Market Overview

Tehama continues to be an attractive option for both local and out of town Buyers who appreciate living behind secure gates in a nature-rich environment beyond the fog, and enjoy the many social activities, dining options and exercise opportunities associated with a social membership to Tehama Golf Club and Fitness Center.

After a robust 2021 that recorded over $23M in sales of vacant land, sales of lots in Tehama tapered off as the year progressed this year with two developer lots and two resale lots closing in the first quarter for 2022. One lot with caretaker’s quarters closed escrow in the fourth quarter.

Canning Properties Group currently has five active vacant lots listed for sale from a $2,100,000 8-acre parcel with Monterey Bay and Santa Cruz Mountain views to a $5,500,000 parcel on 5.45-acres on the golf course with water views as well.

2021 recorded two home sales in Tehama – one for $6,200,000 and the other for $5,193,000. There were no home sales in 2022. Demand is and always has been strong for finished homes in Tehama, but inventory is historically lacking since most people who build in Tehama, stay in Tehama. There is one home currently listed for sale for $11,950,000 that has been on the market since September.

After a slow third quarter, interest in vacant land increased significantly in the fourth quarter of 2022. With better weather than the coast and proximity to area amenities, we look forward to more people choosing Tehama as the place they want to call home in 2023.

Featured Property Photo: 8350 Tres Paraiso (Lot 73), Carmel Brian Keck tehama specialist

$8M+ 0 $6.0M-$8.0M 0 $4.0M-$6.0M 0 $3.0M-$4.0M 1 $2.5M-$3.0M 2 $2.0M-$2.5M 2 $1.5M-$2.0M 0 $1.0M-$1.5M 0 <$1.0M 0

$13.6M

Price
4Q2022 Sales by
Range
$0
5 0 Units Sold
Units Sold
24 N/A Average Days on Market in 2022 Average Days on Market in
2022 Update 5
Sales
Total Dollar Volume in 2022 Total Dollar Volume 2022
in 2022
in 2022
2022 49% decrease from 2021 48% increase from 2021 50% decrease from 2021
Total
TEHAMA 73 Este Alomar (Lot 55) $3,400,000 7925 Cinquenta (Lot 97) $2,725,000 8125 Carina ( Lot 80) $2,550,000 2022 Tehema Sales 62 Marguerite (Lot 49) $2,500,000 56 Marguerite (Lot 44) $2,450,000
Lots
Homes

Demand for finished

remains strong.

# of Sales 4Q2022 Update
Median Home Sales Price ($M) Median Lot Sales Price ($M)
Average % off list price in 2022 Annual Median 2022 $2.55 2021 $2.25 2020 $4.50 2019 $2.21 2018 $1.80 Annual Median 2022 N/A 2021 $5.19 2020 $4.90 2019 $8.50 2018 N/A Annual Sales by Region Tehama Homes Tehama Lots TEHAMA
homes in Tehama
-5%

Monterra Market Overview

Home and land sales in Monterra Ranch continued to flourish in 2022 as both investors and end users chose to live or develop here in an environment surrounded by open space, inspiring natural beauty, underground utilities and a true sense of community. Both local and out of area buyers who appreciate living behind secure gates in a sun-drenched environment enjoy the social activities, dining venues and exercise opportunities associated a social membership to Tehama Golf Club and Fitness Center that is included with the purchase of most properties here.

Due to a lower entry level initial investment and apparent ease of supply chain delays, Monterra lot sales continued steadily throughout the year with nine lots closing between $550,000 and $1,275,000. Canning Properties Group currently has eight lots listed for sale, one of which is in escrow. List prices of Monterra lots range from $795,000 to $1,775,000.

Monterra had five home sales in 2022 ranging from $3,650,000 to $4,925,000 for the year which is typical for the community. Average price per square foot increased from $624 per square foot in 2021 to $785 in 2022 which indicates the demand is very strong for finished homes. There are several properties in Monterra that are investor owned, being developed or are under construction, many of which will be available for sale in the next few months. Two homes under construction are currently listed for sale for $4,495,000 and $5,500,000 and expect to be completed by June 1st with more to follow.

Interest in vacant land has increased significantly in the fourth quarter of 2022 and into 2023. We look forward to more people considering elevating their current lifestyle circumstances and deciding Monterra is the ideal place for them. It’s a great place to live.

Featured Property Photo: 7745 Paseo Venado (Lot 83), Monterey

Total Sales

2022 Sales by Price Range

$8M+ 0 $6.0M-$8.0M 0 $4.0M-$6.0M 2 $3.0M-$4.0M 3 $2.5M-$3.0M 0 $2.0M-$2.5M 0 $1.5M-$2.0M 0 $1.0M-$1.5M 1 <$1.0M 9

Homes Lots

$6.9M $20.8M

2022 Monterra Sales

Homes Lots

8320 Vista Monterra $4,925,000

7635 Mills Road $4,500,000

7564 Paseo Vista Place $3,900,000

8120 Manjares $3,875,000

7571 Paseo Vista $3,650,000

7569 Paseo Vista Place (Lot 50) $1,275,000

7755 Paseo Venado (Lot 84) $795,000 7760 Paseo Venado (Lot 86) $735,000

7572 Paseo Vista Place (Lot 52) $660,000

7586 Paseo Vista (Lot 78) $625,000

0 Paseo Venado (Lot 116) $600,000 7570 Paseo Vista (Lot 55) $575,000

7552 Monterra Ranch Road (Lot 57) $575,000 8130 Manjares (Lot 126) $550,000

15
2022
MONTERRA
Update
Total Dollar Volume in 2022 Total Dollar Volume in 2022 10 5 Units Sold in 2022 Units Sold in 2022 111 56 Average Days on Market in 2022 Average Days on Market in 2022 21% increase from 2021 14% decrease from 2021 50% decrease from 2021 26% decrease from 2021 25% increase from 2021 29% decrease from 2021
Median Home Sales Price ($M) # of Sales Great building opportunities are available for end users and developers in Monterra. Annual Sales by Region Median Lot Sales ($M) Annual Median YoY % Change
$0.63 -3%
$0.64 12%
$0.57 -5%
$0.60 -67%
$1.80 188% Annual Median YoY % Change
$4.20 14% 2021 $3.70 9% 2020 $3.40 6% 2019 $3.20 -16% 2018 $3.79 12% Average % off list price in 2022 -5% 2022 Update MONTERRA
Lots
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2022
Homes

CPG Estate Management

A New Division

We are excited to announce Canning Properties Group is expanding with a new estate management division!

Properties do not take care of themselves. Whether it is the natural elements or unwatched systems, your home needs oversight and proactive care. Canning Properties Group has been selling the very best in Carmel and Pebble Beach for 3 decades and our experience with high-caliber properties uniquely qualifies us to manage yours with the highest level of service. We understand this asset-class, and we have longtime relationships with the best vendors and service providers in the area. It would be an honor for us to take care of your home.

If you are interested in learning more about our Estate Management team and services, please reach out and we’d be delighted to meet with you.

Dave Reese

(831) 272.2172

Seth Reese

(831) 298.9909

Mike Canning | Nancy Canning | Jessica Canning | Nic Canning | Ellen Armstrong Brian Keck | Dave Reese | Kelly Savukinas | Caroline Garcia | Paige Colijn | Seth Reese Anita Jones | Spiro Pettas Team@CanningProperties.com | CanningProperties.com © 2022 Sotheby’s International Realty. All Rights Reserved. Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark and used with permission. Each Sotheby’s International Realty office is independently owned and operated, except those operated by Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. The Sotheby’s International Realty network fully supports the principles of the Fair Housing Act and the Equal Opportunity Act. SIR DRE License Number:00899496 Mike
Jessica
Nic
Ellen Armstrong
Brian
David
Paige
Kelly
Anita Jones
and
Canning Properties Group Work with a Team. Work with the Best. CanningProperties.com 831.238.9718 1 TEAM NATIONALLY Among Sotheby's International Realty Teams 2020 & 2021 #
Canning DRE: 01004964,
Canning DRE: 01920034,
Canning DRE: 01959355,
DRE:02046046,
Keck DRE: 02070480,
Reese: DRE: 02121762,
Colijn DRE#02168140,
Savukinas DRE#02053030
DRE#02168140,
Spiro Petta DRE#02168140.

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