10 0 -30 -10 -20 -40 -30 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 -40 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
-20
0 -10
ECONOMIC TRENDS IN GERMANY -20 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Enterprises' Business Expectations
– in Points
Expectations for exports have suffered a significant setBalance of “better” and “worse” Opinions long-time-average=5 back and are now below their long-term average. The distortions 30 in trade policy are unsettling companies and leaving their mark. 20 Companies fear that the rampant trade conflicts, especially be11 10 tween the USA and China, will have a serious impact on trade 0 over the next twelve months. Against the background of the high -10 level of uncertainty, in particular producers of capital goods pro-20 expect their international business to flatten out. In many ducers -30 important sales markets there are signs of a slower pace of eco-40 growth. In the near future, the emerging markets will be at nomic 2008 2009 2010as2011 2012 drivers. 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 least2007 partially absent growth
FALL 2018
Enterprises' Export Expectations
– in Points
Balance of “higher” and “lower” Opinions Enterprises' Investment Intentions
50 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 -100 -20 -10 -30 -20 -40
long-time-average=21 – in Points
Balance of “higher” and “lower” Opinions
long-time-average= -1 19 17
79 Chambers of Industry and Commerce ask, approximately 27,000 Enterprises answer
-30 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 -40
economy data at a glance
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Enterprises' Export Expectations
Enterprises' Investment Intentions
– in Points
Balance of “higher” and “lower” Opinions
long-time-average=21
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40
17
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
– in Points
Balance ofEmployment “higher” and “lower”Intentions Opinions -1 Enterprises' – long-time-average= in Points 30 Balance of “higher” and “lower” Opinions long-time-average= -6 20 far 20The significant decline in business expectations has so 19 10 only been reflected to a limited extent in the employment in11 100
tentions. Employment plans decline only slightly compared to -10 early 0 summer. Especially in times when skilled workers are scar-20companies are holding on to their qualified teams. In spite of ce, -10 -30 cautious economic expectations and concerns about rising labor -40costs, the employment growth continues in the fourteenth -20 2008 2010 2011 slower 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 year,2007 albeit at 2009 a somewhat pace. -30
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Balance of “higher” and “lower” Opinions
financing conditions
70
0
-10 50 40
-20 30
20 -30
70
domestic demand financing conditions lack of skilled workers Prices of energy and raw materials
2018
2017
2016
2015
0
2014
10 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
long-time-average= -6 11
long-time-average= -in percent, *export-industry-6
60
20 10
Prices of energy and raw materials
Risks for the economic development
– in Points
– in Points
foreign demand* labour costs exchange rates* economic policy conditions
10 lack of skilled workers
2013
Enterprises' Employment Intentions
20 domestic demand
2012
Balance of “higher” Opinions for companies long-time-average= The increased level and of “lower” uncertainty is also -1rein a slight slowdown in investment momentum. Fewer 20 19 companies than in early summer intend to expand their budgets. 10 However, the plans remain at a solid high level overall. In addition 0 favorable financing conditions, this is due to the high cato the pacity -10 utilization in many areas as well as the digitization of the operations. Capacity expansions and product innovations remain -20 the -30most important investment motives in autumn 2018. At the current margin, the proportion of companies planning to invest -40 in rationalization is also rising 2007 2008 2009 measures 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 slightly. 2015 2016This 2017shows 2018 the lack of skilled workers that has long been deplored. 30 flected
Enterprises' Employment Intentions Balance “higher” and “lower” Opinions Risks for theof economic development
2011
– in Points
2010
Enterprises' Investment Intentions
DIHK-Economic-Survey Fall 2018
-in percent, *export-industry
foreign demand* labour costs exchange rates* economic policy conditions
11