Inside Boris Johnson's Cabinet

Boris Johnson’s Cabinet

An overview of the new Prime Minister’s cabinet and his first 100 days in office

Cicero Group | July 2019

FOREWORD Boris Johnson’s appointment of a new Government was the most dramatic Cabinet clear-out in recent memory. The combination of sackings and protest resignations before he took office saw 17 of Theresa May’s Cabinet of 30 leave office.

During his leadership campaign, Johnson made it clear that he would expect all members of his Cabinet signed up to his policy of leaving the EU by October 31st either with a deal or without. True to his word he has assembled a Cabinet who accept that policy. MPs returning to the Cabinet include the Vote Leave-supporting Dominic Raab, Priti Patel and Theresa Villiers. Michael Gove, Johnson’s fellow Vote Leave frontman, has been given the key role of Brexit preparedness from the Cabinet Office.

The formation of Johnson’s new Government seeks to return to Johnson’s political successes, most notably, his tenure as Mayor of London and as the public face of Vote Leave. Johnson has sought to get the ‘band back together’, hiring his former right-hand man from City Hall, Sir Eddie Lister, Chief of Staff amongst a raft of familiar Johnsonites such as Lee Cain (Director of Communications), Rob Oxley (Press Secretary), Munira Mirza (Head of the No. 10 Policy Unit) and David Frost (Europe Adviser).

However, the most significant appointment to his team is Dominic Cummings. The infamous Vote Leave campaign chief and now the Prime Minister’s senior adviser will be focused on ensuring that the Government achieves its twin objectives of delivering on its promise to deliver Brexit by the end of October and ensuring that it is election ready.

This has led to a significant centralisation of power at Number 10. Key Brexit decisions will be taken by smaller Cabinet committees and all Government special advisers will now report to Cummings as well as their Cabinet Ministers.

Domestic priorities have also played a key role in shaping the Cabinet. The appointment of Sajid Javid as Chancellor, an advocate of increasing borrowing to spend on infrastructure, signals a significant shift from the years of austerity.

Elevating Esther McVey, the Minister of State for Housing, and Jake Berry, the Minister of State for the Northern Powerhouse, to Cabinet roles underlines Johnson’s aim to give more people the opportunity to own their own home and to reunite the country by rebalancing the economy.

While Johnson promised MPs during the leadership contest that he would not have an early election and has recently denied he was planning a poll, it is clear the Government is on a campaign footing. Johnson knows that an election could well be forced upon him after the summer, so being election ready is essential if he hopes to stay as Prime Minister for the long term.

The Prime Minister is therefore already in campaign mode with a slew of policy announcements activity since cicero-group.com

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he entered Downing Street, such as recruiting 20,000 new police officers, building a high-speed rail link between Manchester and Leeds and a new £3.6bn fund for deprived towns. The pace of announcements is set to continue over the summer with Johnson acting as campaigner-in-chief, bringing at least the feel of a General Election to his first month as Prime Minister.

Critics have argued that it was unwise to deliver such a radical reshuffle when the Parliamentary Party is so divided and Johnson’s working majority is so small. Team Johnson believe that his overwhelming victory amongst Conservative members has given him the mandate to deliver radical changes. They have also made the calculation that the only way to face down his critics and persuade the EU that he means what he says about the risk of no deal is to show his and the rest of his Government’s total commitment to delivering Brexit by October 31st. Therefore, a Cabinet that is loyal and focused on an agreed goal is the only way to avoid the public splits that did so much to undermine Theresa May. WHAT NEXT FOR TEAM BORIS? With his new team in place and buoyed by the return of familiar advisers, Johnson has stuck to the line that the UK is leaving ‘come what may’ on October 31st. He has continued to call for the removal of the “anti-democratic backstop” while his no deal planner Michael Gove has stated that no deal is the “assumed position” of the Government.

Johnson will now lead a six-man strong Brexit war cabinet including Gove, Javid, Raab, Barclay and Cox to run no deal preparations including leading the biggest public information programme since the second world war.

Yet the real challenge will arise when the Prime Minister faces the Commons again in September and the reality of leading a divided party with a small majority and with several former Cabinet ministers reportedly leading the rebellion against his Brexit approach. His Government remains perilously balanced with a working majority of just two that could be reduced further after the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election on August 1st.

Johnson’s gamble is that, with a united Cabinet and a stronger position in the polls, he will be able to face down these critics and deliver on his central promise to ensure that the UK is out of the EU by the end of October.

GET IN TOUCH If you would like to speak to the Cicero team about this report, or how we can help support your organisation and its public affairs objectives in 2019, please contact a member of the team below: Tom Frackowiak Managing Director - UK Public Affairs Tom.Frackowiak@cicero-group.com +44 (0)20 7297 5966

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Matthew Dunn Senior Account Executive Matthew.Dunn@cicero-group.com +44 (0)20 3397 9817

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BORIS JOHNSON - PRIME MINISTER Parliamentary seat: Uxbridge and South Ruislip Majority: 5,034 Vote in 2016 Referendum: Leave Meaningful Vote 1: X Meaningful Vote 2: X Meaningful Vote 3: ✓ Free Market vs. Interventionist: 7/10* The former Mayor of London and Vote Leave stalwart’s route to power was never effectively challenged after Theresa May announced her intention to resign two months ago. Securing enough votes to guarantee a place on the ballot in the first round of Parliamentary voting, Johnson ended up with half of the Parliamentary Party lining up to back him.

His popularity with the membership never showed signs of waning, winning the contest by almost two to one. His message of delivering Brexit by October 31st clearly cut through with the ‘no deal’ happy membership, where polls showed a majority want to leave the EU without a deal even if it led to the breakup of the United Kingdom or left the country poorer.

Since taking office, Boris has ramped up the rhetoric on no deal and has taken a ‘tough line’ with the EU. He has continued to call for the removal of the “anti-democratic backstop”, as well as his former Vote Leave colleague, Michael Gove stating that no deal is the assumed position of the Government. Johnson will rely on Gove to lead the Brexit war cabinet which will run no deal preparations.

He has also committed to a number of General Election style pledges such as increasing police officer numbers and committing to new infrastructure pledges such as a high-speed rail link between Leeds and Manchester. Johnson is committed to a ‘boosterism’ strategy that seeks to unleash the spending taps that were notoriously kept shut by Philip Hammond. He will likely use this approach if he plumps for an emergency to counteract the possibility of a no deal Brexit.

Finally, Johnson has fundamentally committed his administration to addressing regional inequality within the UK and maintain the Union. It is notable that his first speech outside of Westminster was in Manchester to announce a £3.6bn fund for deprived towns, with further trips to Scotland and Wales to commit £300m for the Home Nations.

Besides Brexit, addressing this problem will be a key tenant of his Government.

KEY POLICY PRIORITIES SINCE TAKING OFFICE: •

Leaving the EU by October 31st “no ifs or buts”.

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•

No deal is the assumed position of the Government.

Migration Advisory Committee to look at Australian Style Points system for Immigration.

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20,000 extra police officers.

Level up education spending between all schools in England.

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Building Northern Powerhouse Rail between Leeds and Manchester.

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Full-fibre broadband coverage by 2025.

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Dedicated office for Veterans’ Affairs.

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A £3.6bn fund for deprived towns.

•

Establish ‘Free Ports’ after Brexit.

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A £300m fund for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

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CICERO FOCUS - KEY CABINET MINISTERS Sajid Javid MP - Chancellor of the Exchequer

Priti Patel MP - Home Secretary

Parliamentary seat: Bromsgrove Majority: 16,573 Vote in 2016 Referendum: Remain

Parliamentary seat: Witham Majority: 18,646 Vote in 2016 Referendum: Leave

MV1: ✓ MV2: ✓ MV3: ✓ Free Market vs. Interventionist: 7/10* Future Leadership Contender? 10/10†

MV1: X MV2: X MV3: X Free Market vs. Interventionist: 9/10 Future Leadership Contender? 8/10

A former banker and son of Pakistani immigrants, Javid has been a member of the Cabinet since 2014.

Previously holding the Culture, Business and Communities briefs, he was then promoted to Home Secretary last year. One of the 13 Conservative leadership contenders, he finished fourth in the contest having advocated for a greater investment into infrastructure as well as the recruitment of 20,000 new police officers. Although he backed Remain in the EU Referendum, he has since argued steadfastly in favour of preparing for no deal which will be high up his list of priorities during his tenure in No.11.

Returning to Cabinet, Patel resigned from her former role as International Development Secretary in November 2017 for breaching the Ministerial code after holding a number of undisclosed meetings with the Israeli Government. Patel was a key figure in the Vote Leave campaign during the EU Referendum and is one of the few members of the new Cabinet to vote against the Withdrawal Agreement three times.

She supported Boris Johnson in the 2019 Conservative leadership contest. Positioned on the right of the Party, she is a firm free marketer and, controversially for a Home Secretary, has shown support in the past for the return of capital punishment although she has since distanced herself from these views.

Intray issue 1: Brexit - Top priority for Javid will be to prepare for the UK’s imminent departure from the EU. With a no deal Brexit ‘assumed by Government’ Javid will be ensuring that the plans outlined by Michael Gove have the necessary funds to be credible and effective in such an eventuality.

Intray issue 2: Public spending - The Government is currently committed to a Spending Review this Autumn, and there is increasing speculation of an emergency budget, perhaps on the 7th October before EU exit day. Johnson confirmed a range of new spending commitments including on the NHS, social care and the police. Funding these new initiatives while funding no deal preparation will be a major priority for Javid.

Intray issue 3: Competitiveness - Also indicated in Johnson’s first speech as Prime Minister, a major policy initiative for the Treasury will be to ensure the UK remains a competitive business hub post-Brexit, through the implementation of tax reform. This could include reducing business and income tax rates alongside the simplification of the tax code.

Intray issue 1: Police resources - With recruitment to start in September, Patel will have to work with the Chancellor to deliver the 20,000 officers promised by the PM over the next three years. Patel will have to ensure that these new officers are trained effectively to address the loss of experienced officers who have left as a result of cutbacks in recent years.

Intray issue 2: Immigration - Patel will have to work closely with the Migration Advisory Committee to deliver on Johnson’s pledge to investigate a ‘Australian style points system for migration’ as well as see the Migration Bill through Parliament to return immigration powers after Brexit. Patel has already vowed to toughen immigration laws after the UK leaves the EU and stated that the UK would make priority for the “brilliant scientists, academics and highly-skilled workers that we want to see more of.”

Intray issue 3: Violent crime - With violent crime an increasingly important issue amongst voters, Patel will be under pressure to address this. Patel will have to tread carefully to ensure a renewed use of ‘stop and search’ is implemented effectively, bearing in mind the political sensitives around the tactic.

Dominic Raab MP - Foreign Secretary & First Secretary of State

Stephen Barclay MP - Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union

Parliamentary seat: Esher and Walton Majority: 23,298 Vote in 2016 Referendum: Leave

Parliamentary seat: North East Cambridgeshire Majority: 21,270 Vote in 2016 Referendum: Leave

MV1: X MV2: X MV3: ✓ Free Market vs. Interventionist: 9/10 Future Leadership Contender? 10/10

MV1: ✓ MV2: ✓ MV3: ✓ Free Market vs. Interventionist: 7/10 Future Leadership Contender? 4/10

Raab returns to the Cabinet following his resignation in November 2018 as Brexit Secretary in opposition to the Withdrawal Agreement. He ran to be Leader of the Party only to be eliminated in the second round of Parliamentary voting. A leading Brexiter, Raab has argued that the UK should leave the EU on October 31st with or without a deal. It is notable that he will also serve as Boris’ de facto deputy, holding the First Minister of State title, thus cementing the Brexiteer takeover at the heart of Government.

In 2018, Barclay was Theresa May’s surprise choice to become the third Brexit Secretary in six months.

Barclay retains his position as Brexit Secretary following his support for Johnson in the leadership election. It is still unknown what role Barclay will have during any possible renegotiation with the EU. Before Parliament, Barclay trained as a solicitor and worked in the City of London for nearly 15 years, including at Barclays Bank.

Intray issue 1: Iran - Following the capture of the Stena Impero ship, a decision is needed on whether to continue with Theresa May’s policy of building a European naval coalition to protect shipping in the Gulf or join a US-led force. Supporting the US would be conceived as the UK taking a tougher stance on Iran and the nuclear deal with the Gulf State.

Intray issue 1: Deadline - From the Conservative leadership Cabinet rhetoric to his immediate Cabinet appointments, the new Prime Minister is committed to aggressively pursuing Brexit by the October 31st deadline. The Brexit Secretary will have to ensure all efforts are made to secure a deal, however doubts remain over whether he will play a leading role in the negotiations.

Intray issue 2: China - Whether to allow Huawei to participate in building the UK’s 5G infrastructure network is a key concern for Raab. Refusing Huawei’s participation risks early confrontation with Beijing and allowing it risks an early rift with President Trump.

Intray issue 2: No deal preparations - Aligning with these commitments, the Prime Minister has committed to “turbo-charging” no deal preparations, moving the workstream close to No. 10 under the stewardship of Michael Gove. Barclay will support the Cabinet office in no deal planning across government to ensure the UK is ready to leave the EU ‘do or die’ by Halloween.

Intray issue 3: US-UK relations - Raab will want to rebuild UK-US relations following leaked diplomatic cables from the UK’s Ambassador to the US, Kim Darroch. The fall-out led to an attack on the UK Prime Minister by Trump, and the Foreign Office will be seeking to ‘start afresh’ with the US Government.

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*Free Market vs. Interventionist: 1 - supports highly interventionist policies; 10 - supports highly free market policies †Future Leadership contender: 1 - unlikely leadership contender; 10 - highly likely to be a leadership contender

Intray issue 3: The backstop - The Prime Minister continues to argue his preference for a negotiated deal but has branded the terms of the Withdrawal Agreement “unacceptable”. The complete removal of the Irish border backstop is now a red line for the Government. The feasibility of such a proposal is questionable, with the EU so far remaining steadfast in seeking to keep the Withdrawal Agreement in its entirety. Seeking agreement on ‘alternative arrangements’ for the backstop will be a high priority for the department.

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CICERO FOCUS - KEY CABINET MINISTERS Andrea Leadsom MP - Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy

Elizabeth Truss MP - Secretary of State for International Trade

Parliamentary seat: South Northamptonshire Majority: 22,840 Vote in 2016 Referendum: Leave

Parliamentary seat: South West Norfolk Majority: 18,312 Vote in 2016 Referendum: Remain

MV1: ✓ MV2: ✓ MV3: ✓ Free Market vs. Interventionist: 6/10 Future Leadership Contender? 5/10

MV1: ✓ MV2: ✓ MV3: ✓ Free Market vs. Interventionist: 9/10 Future Leadership Contender? 10/10

A former Conservative leadership contender, coming second to Theresa May in 2016, Leadsom was Leader of the House before resigning in May of this year in protest to May’s Withdrawal Agreement. Prior to that she was Environment Secretary before the 2017 snap General Election. A firm Brexiteer, Leadsom was reportedly the convenor of the so-called ‘Pizza Club’ that sort to plot against May following the publication of the Withdrawal Agreement. She ran again for Leader in 2019 only to be eliminated in the first round of voting, subsequently backing Johnson.

A fervent free marketer, Truss surprised many when she did not stand for the recent leadership contest.

She backed Johnson early in the process – one of the first Cabinet Members to do so – and made a number of supportive media appearances on his behalf. She was previously Chief Secretary of the Treasury and was the first ever female Lord Chancellor. Known for her Thatcherite economic views, she has advocated for sweeping tax cuts and building more homes on the green belt. Despite backing Remain in the Referendum, she has joined Remain-minded colleagues like Javid, who have advocated for preparing for no deal and leaving the EU deal or no deal by October 31st.

Intray issue 1: Delivering Net Zero Carbon Emissions - Johnson’s premiership was bound by the target of achieving Net Zero emissions by 2050 before it started and Leadsom will have to work quickly to outline how to achieve this aim. This would include new efforts to decarbonise heating and new funding or tax incentives for ‘green projects’.

Intray issue 2: Energy White Paper - The forthcoming Energy White Paper, due to be released in July, was reportedly held up by the former Chancellor for potential spending implications. The paper is reported to include new nuclear and carbon capture and storage funding and efforts to improve energy efficiency. The new Business Secretary will have to decide whether to press ahead with these reforms over the summer.

Intray issue 3: Productivity - In his first speech as Prime Minister, Boris Johnson cited the need to drive higher productivity. Whilst Brexit is the headline issue for the new administration, addressing the UK’s productivity challenge has the capacity to unlock growth in regions across the UK – making it a key concern for Leadsom.

Intray issue 2: Trade agreements - Secretary of State Liam Fox pledged to replicate all 40 trade agreements the UK enjoys as an EU member, in order to avoid any disruption in the event of no deal. So far, the UK has agreed deals with 12 countries and regions. The remaining deals which have not yet been rolled over will be another urgent priority for Truss.

Intray issue 3: Free Ports - The new Secretary of State has committed to Boris Johnson’s pledge to create free ports as a way to boost businesses and trade in struggling regions, although the European Commission has warned the concept is a potential source of money laundering or terrorist financing. DIT will need to work closely with other departments to ensure British business are better placed to export to global markets.

Grant Shapps - Secretary of State for Transport

Nicky Morgan MP - Secretary of State for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport

Parliamentary seat: Welwyn Hatfield Majority: 7,369 Vote in 2016 Referendum: Remain

Parliamentary seat: Loughborough Majority: 4,269 Vote in 2016 Referendum: Remain

MV1: X MV2: X MV3: ✓ Free Market vs. Interventionist: 6/10 Future Leadership Contender? 3/10

MV1: ✓ MV2: ✓ MV3: ✓ Free Market vs. Interventionist: 4/10 Future Leadership Contender? 5/10

A key player in Johnson’s Parliamentary operation in the recent Conservative leadership contest, Shapps returns to Cabinet following a four-year absence. He was previously Chairman of the Conservative Party during the 2015 General Election but was demoted from Cabinet by David Cameron to a junior International Development Minister. He subsequently had to stand down from the post, following allegations of bullying under his watch during the election campaign. In his new role, Shapps is notably at odds with Boris’ views on Heathrow Expansion and is an enthusiastic backer of the third runway. His views on HS2 are less well known but has never voted against the project.

As a former chair of the Commons Treasury Select Committee (TSC), Nicky Morgan is one of the most influential female politicians in Parliament and has become a key figure in attempts to forge a compromise between One Nation Conservatives and Tory Brexiteers. Previously however, she was seen as being a flagbearer for the One Nation wing of her party. Morgan’s rapid rise up the ranks during the Cameron years, including posts as Treasury Minister and Education Secretary were curtailed by Theresa May’s premiership when she returned to the backbenches to become TSC Chair.

Intray issue 1: Aviation - JJohnson was staunchly opposed to a third runway at Heathrow but has so far not indicated that he would stop it under his premiership. If Heathrow can deliver expansion plans while keeping to its current air quality obligation and reducing the number of people affected by noise, Johnson might argue that the concerns he had as Mayor of London have been addressed.

Intray issue 2: Rail - With Johnson mindful of the unpopularity of HS2 and the increasing project costs, it is likely that the business case will be reviewed. However, cancelling a major infrastructure project will be politically detrimental so a compromise may be a rephasing of the delivery of the line. Additionally, Shapps will have to deliver on the Prime Minister’s pledge for Northern Powerhouse rail and boost regional connectivity in the North.

Intray issue 3: Decarbonisation - To meet the UK’s net zero emissions target, decarbonisation will be a key priority for the Department. In particular, Shapps will be seeking to support the delivery of infrastructure for Electric Vehicles, greening the railway, and carbon offsetting options for air travel.

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Intray issue 1: Brexit and trade - Trade agreements will be high on Truss’ agenda. Until there is clarity on the UK’s future trading relationship with the EU however, the Department for International Trade (DIT) is limited in the progress it can make following the consultations it published last year on trade negotiations with the US, Australia and New Zealand.

Intray issue 1: Regulating the internet - With data scandals, fake news and links between social media and mental health problems, the Department has made strides to better grapple with the digital world.

While the Department’s White Paper is due to be taken forward later this year, Morgan will need to balance carefully its desire to regulate the internet with its ambition for the UK to be a global tech hub.

Intray issue 2: Digital ID - Bringing forward policy which provides certainty around the rollout and use of digital ID will be vital if the Government is to fulfil its ambition to be a global tech hub. While the Department’s recent digital ID consultation is a step in the right direction, full Ministerial support is still needed for the benefits of this nascent area to be truly realised.

Intray issue 3: The ‘ethics’ of tech - Whitehall is beginning to look more closely at the ‘ethics’ of technology in an effort to understand AI or similar data processors reaching its outcomes, whether these decisions are fair and without bias. The ability of Government to set principles and standards in this area without hampering innovation will continue to be a pressing area of policy.

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CICERO FOCUS - KEY CABINET MINISTERS Robert Jenrick MP - Secretary of State for Housing, Communities and Local Government

Amber Rudd MP - Secretary of State for Work and Pensions

Parliamentary seat: Newark Majority: 18,149 Vote in 2016 Referendum: Remain

Parliamentary seat: Hastings and Rye Majority: 346 Vote in 2016 Referendum: Remain

MV1: ✓ MV2: ✓ MV3: ✓ Free Market vs. Interventionist: 7/10 Future Leadership Contender? 7/10

MV1: ✓ MV2: ✓ MV3: ✓ Free Market vs. Interventionist: 5/10 Future Leadership Contender? 6/10

The youngest Minister of the Government, Jenrick was previously Exchequer Secretary at the Treasury.

He voted Remain in the Referendum but loyally backed the Government on the Withdrawal Agreement.

Jenrick backed Johnson as leader of the Conservative Party as the only candidate who could save the Conservatives from the “existential threat” facing the party. During his time as Exchequer Secretary, he was responsible for overseeing plans for growth in the ‘Oxford–Cambridge Arc’.

After backing Jeremy Hunt in the leadership contest, Rudd remains in post as Secretary of State for Work and Pensions. Although considered very much on the Remain end of the Cabinet and previously warning against a no deal Brexit, Rudd recently said that she changed her mind arguing that it ‘needs to be part of the leverage’ to get a deal. Previously Rudd served as Theresa May’s successor at the Home Office until she resigned in April 2018 over her handling of the Windrush controversy.

Intray issue 1: Home Ownership - Solving the Housing Crisis will be top of Jenrick’s agenda. He has previously expressed his view that the crisis is a supply side issue and the planning system needs further reforms to speed up delivery. Despite his significant property portfolio, Jenrick – as the first millennial in Cabinet – will make this issue a top priority.

Intray issue 1: Universal Credit - Plagued by delays and higher than expected costs, the roll-out of Universal Credit has become a political hot potato. The most important job for Rudd will be to consolidate the secure delivery of Universal Credit following the completion of the roll out.

Intray issue 2: Green belt - Jenrick has highlighted the need to protect the green belt from development, mirroring the desire of his new boss. However, with pressure from sections of the Party such as from fellow Cabinet members Jacob Rees-Mogg and Elizabeth Truss, he may be pressured into reform.

Intray issue 3: Good design - Jenrick has previously stated his belief that good design can win over communities for new developments. However, it will be interesting to see whether he works well with the Chairman of the Building Better, Building Beautiful Commission, Roger Scruton. Scruton was recently fired but reinstated to the commission following his words being misrepresented in an interview.

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Intray issue 2: Pensions Bill - The political uncertainty in Parliament has consistently delayed the publication of a Pensions Bill. It is expected to contain provisions for new powers for the Pensions Regulator; a new regulatory framework for Defined Benefit consolidators; measures to enable Royal Mail to establish its Collective Defined Contribution pension scheme, and measures to facilitate the creation of an online pension dashboards.

Intray issue 3: Improving outcomes - The Department will be responsible for completing the roll out of Personal Independence Payment (PIP); and integrating the services that deliver PIP assessments and Work Capability Assessments from 2021. It will also need to progress its strategy to support disabled people, and people with health conditions to find and return to work.

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FULL CABINET

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Michael Gove MP - Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster

Ben Wallace QC MP - Secretary of State for Defence

Parliamentary seat: Surrey Heath Majority: 24,943 Vote in 2016 Referendum: Leave

Parliamentary seat: Wyre and Preston Majority: 12,246 Vote in 2016 Referendum: Remain

MV1: ✓ MV2: ✓ MV3: ✓ Free Market vs. Interventionist: 7/10 Future Leadership Contender? 8/10

MV1: ✓ MV2: ✓ MV3: ✓ Free market vs. Interventionist: 6/10 Future Leadership Contender? 5/10

Although a key ally during the Referendum campaign, Gove was considered responsible for Johnson pulling out of the 2016 leadership contest when he decided to run himself, stating Johnson could not “provide the leadership for the task ahead”. In 2019, his leadership run ended when he was knocked out in the last Parliamentary ballot. As Environment Secretary he was praised for his proactive agenda despite Brexit holding up most of Theresa May’s legislative programme. His redemption with Johnson appears to be complete as the Prime Minister will be reliant on Gove’s ability as a seasoned Minister to be radical while he ‘turbo-boosts’ the Government’s no deal preparations as the head of Johnson’s Brexit war cabinet.

Former Security Minister Ben Wallace has been a key ally of Boris Johnson throughout his Parliamentary career and the recent leadership election. Like his Cabinet colleague Jake Berry, he stood by Johnson even when many were writing his political obituary. Wallace supported Theresa May’s Withdrawal Agreement and previously warned a no deal Brexit would impact UKEU security sharing. Prior to Westminster, he was an MSP for North East Scotland and spent eight years in the army, serving in Northern Ireland, Germany, Cyprus and Central America. In his new role Wallace will focus on ensuring security co-operation with the EU regardless of the outcome by the Brexit deadline.

Matt Hancock MP - Secretary of State for Health and Social Care

Gavin Williamson MP - Secretary of State for Education

Parliamentary seat: West Suffolk Majority: 17,063 Vote in 2016 Referendum: Remain

Parliamentary seat: South Staffordshire Majority: 22,733 Vote in 2016 Referendum: Remain

MV1: ✓ MV2: ✓ MV3: ✓ Free Market vs. Interventionist: 6/10 Future Leadership Contender? 9/10

MV1: ✓ MV2: ✓ MV3: ✓ Free Market vs. Interventionist: 5/10 Future Leadership Contender? 7/10

After coming sixth in the first ballot of Conservative MPs, Hancock’s quick endorsement of Johnson has been repaid by continuing in post as Health Secretary. Viewed as a protégé of George Osborne, Hancock was promoted to Health Secretary after a a short period as Culture Secretary under Theresa May. He campaigned for Remain during the EU Referendum but has since backed Theresa May’s Brexit plan. Despite backing him later in the contest, Hancock took aim at Boris’ “F*** business comments” saying “F***, F*** Business”. As well as preparing the health service for a possible no deal Brexit, Hancock will continue his drive for a greater adoption of technology within the NHS.

Williamson makes a swift return to Cabinet despite being fired by Theresa May over alleged leaks from the National Security Council regarding the involvement of Huawei in the building of 5G networks. A former PPS to David Cameron, he backed Theresa May in the 2016 leadership contest and played a key role in her campaign. Playing a similar role in 2019, he worked with James Wharton and Grant Shapps in running Johnson’s Parliamentary operation. Williamson will be heading Johnson’s plan to increase funding for English schools, and he will be responding to the Augur review from Theresa May, which recommended a reduction in tuition fees and more support for further education and vocational skills.

Theresa Villiers MP - Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

Robert Buckland MP - Lord Chancellor & Secretary of State for Justice

Parliamentary seat: Chipping Barnet Majority: 353 Vote in 2016 Referendum: Leave

Parliamentary seat: South Swindon Majority: 2,464 Vote in 2016 Referendum: Remain

MV1: X MV2: X MV3: X Free Market vs. Interventionist: 8/10 Future Leadership Contender? 3/10

MV1: ✓ MV2: ✓ MV3: ✓ Free Market vs. Interventionist: 5/10 Future Leadership Contender? 5/10

Originally an MEP, Villiers has been an MP since 2005. She previously held the positions of Minister of State for Transport and Secretary of State for Ireland. During the latter tenure she was known for her role in delivering the Stormont House and the Fresh Start Agreements for Northern Ireland. Villiers supported the Leave campaign in the Referendum and opposed May’s Withdrawal Agreement, advocating for a no deal Brexit should a solution to the backstop not be found. Villiers will be put under pressure by farmers to ensure that they are not disadvantaged by tariffs in the event of no deal and will be her top priority as Environment Secretary.

A move likely to placate the Remain wing of the Party, Buckland was previously Solicitor General and most recently, Prisons Minister. He will be well suited to the role given he was a criminal barrister for 18 years before entering Parliament in 2010. Despite voting to Remain in the EU and publicly arguing against a no deal Brexit, Buckland was a supporter of Boris Johnson during the leadership campaign. In his new role, Buckland will be carrying forward the Divorce, Dissolution and Separation Bill as well as reforms to the National Probation Service.

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FULL CABINET

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Alok Sharma MP - Secretary of State for International Development

Alun Cairns MP - Secretary of State for Wales

Parliamentary seat: Reading West Majority: 2,876 Vote in 2016 Referendum: Remain

Parliamentary seat: Vale of Glamorgan Majority: 2,190 Vote in 2016 Referendum: Remain

MV1: ✓ MV2: ✓ MV3: ✓ Free Market vs. Interventionist: 6/10 Future Leadership Contender? 5/10

MV1: ✓ MV2: ✓ MV3: ✓ Free Market vs. Interventionist: 7/10 Future Leadership Contender? 3/10

Moving to the UK when he was five, Sharma originally qualified as a chartered accountant and spent 16 years working in investment banking. Elected to Parliament in 2010, he previously served as Housing Minister, and was later appointed as Employment Minister in 2018. Sharma voted to Remain and supported Theresa May’s Brexit deal, but has said he is prepared to leave with no deal if it proved impossible to negotiate a new one before October 31st. Sharma has already stated his commitment to continue the policy of spending 0.7 per cent of Gross National Income on aid and will be pushed by the NGO industry to focus aid spending on poverty alleviation rather than the UK’s commercial and political interests.

Previously a junior Minister in the Wales Office, Cairns has been Secretary of State for Wales since 2016. He was previously a Member of the Welsh Assembly since its inception in 1999, up until the 2011 election. Cairns is also on the right of the Party on economics, previously being a member of the Institute of Economic Affairs’ ‘Free Enterprise Group’ – a grouping of MPs who back free market policies. He backed Remain in the EU Referendum but supported Johnson in the leadership contest. Cairns’ top priority will be to administer the £300m promised by the Prime Minister for the Home Nations.

Alister Jack MP - Secretary of State for Scotland

Julian Smith MP - Secretary of State for Northern Ireland

Parliamentary seat: Dumfries and Galloway Majority: 5,643 Vote in 2016 Referendum: Not an MP

Parliamentary seat: Skipton and Ripon Majority: 19,985 Vote in 2016 Referendum: Remain

MV1: ✓ MV2: ✓ MV3: ✓ Free Market vs. Interventionist: 7/10 Future Leadership Contender? 4/10

MV1: ✓ MV2: ✓ MV3: ✓ Free Market vs. Interventionist: 5/10 Future Leadership Contender? 3/10

One of the 13 Scottish Conservative MPs to win a seat in the 2017 General Election, Jack replaces the long serving Scottish Secretary David Mundell. Jack voted Leave in the Referendum and was a member of the hard-Brexit European Research Group in Parliament until his appointment as a Government Whip in February of this year. He is critical of the backstop and has a particular interest in the issue, as his constituency has the UK’s busiest ferry port serving Northern Ireland.

Alongside his Welsh Cabinet counterpart, Jack will have to focus on delivering the £300m for the devolved nations promised by the Prime Minister.

Known for his tenure as Chief Whip of the House of Commons, he has now been given the equally difficult brief of Northern Ireland. Before entering Parliament, he had a successful career as an entrepreneur, setting up an executive recruiting firm with bases in London and Singapore.

Appointed as Chief Whip following Gavin Williamson’s promotion to Defence Secretary, he notably failed to secure a majority for Theresa May’s Withdrawal Agreement three times.

Restarting the Assembly in Northern Ireland, which has not sat since 2017, will be a top priority for Smith.

Baroness Evans of Bowes Park - Leader of the House of Lords & Lord Privy Seal

James Cleverly MP - Minister without Portfolio (Cabinet Office) & Party Chairman

Parliamentary seat: N/A Majority: N/A Vote in 2016 Referendum: N/A

Parliamentary seat: Braintree Majority: 18,422 Vote in 2016 Referendum: Leave

MV1: N/A MV2: N/A MV3: N/A Free Market vs. Interventionist: 5/10 Future Leadership Contender? N/A

MV1: ✓ MV2: ✓ MV3: ✓ Free Market vs. Interventionist: 7/10 Future Leadership Contender? 10/10

Evans was made life peer in September 2014. She was a Director of the New Schools Network from January 2013, a registered charity that supports groups who wish to set up ‘free schools’ - previously serving as the charity’s COO. She was appointed Leader of the House of Lords in May’s Cabinet and will continue to hold this position in Boris Johnson’s new Cabinet with the key task of keeping her Conservative colleagues in the Lords onside.

Another Johnson lieutenant who has long supported the new Prime Minister, Cleverly was previously in the Territorial Army and a London Assembly Member. Part of Johnson’s team in City Hall, he was appointed the Mayor of London’s youth ambassador in 2009 before becoming MP for Braintree in 2015. He was previously Deputy Chair of the Conservative Party before becoming a DExEU Minister earlier this year. After a short campaign to be Leader of the Party, pulling out before the Parliamentary voting stage, Cleverly backed his former boss. With a possible General Election on the horizon, Cleverly will be focused on ensuring CCHQ’s election machine is ready come what may.

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ALSO TO ATTEND CABINET MEETINGS

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Rishi Sunak MP - Chief Secretary to the Treasury

Jacob Rees-Mogg MP - Leader of the House of Commons

Parliamentary seat: Richmond (Yorks) Majority: 23,108 Vote in 2016 Referendum: Leave

Parliamentary seat: North East Somerset Majority: 10,235 Vote in 2016 Referendum: Leave

MV1: ✓ MV2: ✓ MV3: ✓ Free Market vs. Interventionist: 8/10 Future Leadership Contender? 6/10

MV1: X MV2: X MV3: ✓ Free Market vs. Interventionist: 9/10 Future Leadership Contender? 3/10

Elected in 2015, he was previously an investment banker. Seen as a rising star within the Party, he was notably courted by David Cameron to back the Remain cause before the Referendum.

Voting to Leave the EU instead, he hoped that the UK would establish closer ties with the Commonwealth countries. He however supported the Withdrawal Agreement and opposed a no deal Brexit in several key Parliamentary votes. Supporting Boris Johnson early in the leadership contest, he was tipped for promotion from his role as Local Government Minister. Should the Government continue with the planned Spending Review, Sunak will be tasked with delivering this and the many spending commitments that Johnson has already made.

Rees-Mogg has been rewarded for his loyalty to Boris Johnson and his hardline Brexit views by being appointed as Leader of the House of Commons. As Chairman of the European Research Group, Rees-Mogg was one of the most ardent critics of Theresa May’s deal despite voting for it when it came back to MPs for the third time. Before being elected MP for North East Somerset in 2010, Rees-Mogg set up his own investment fund management company, Somerset Capital Management. Apart from announcing Government business and working closely with the Government Chief Whip, Rees-Mogg will also have the responsibility over the restoration and renewal of Parliament, on which legislation is currently going through the Lords.

Geoffrey Cox QC MP - Attorney General

Esther McVey MP - Minister of State (Housing, Communities & Local Government)

Parliamentary seat: Torridge and West Devon Majority: 20,686 Vote in 2016 Referendum: Leave

Parliamentary seat: Tatton Majority: 14,787 Vote in 2016 Referendum: Not an MP

MV1: ✓ MV2: ✓ MV3: ✓ Free Market vs. Interventionist: 6/10 Future Leadership Contender? 3/10

MV1: X MV2: X MV3: ✓ Free Market vs. Interventionist: 6/10 Future Leadership Contender? 7/10

Appointed as Attorney General in 2018, Cox was notably in charge of negotiating changes to the Northern Ireland backstop in the Withdrawal Agreement. Cox voted to leave the EU in the Referendum and has argued that the UK must leave the EU by October 31st. Cox has practiced law since 1982 and was appointed Queen’s Counsel in 2003. Given Johnson’s comments on removing the backstop, it is unclear whether Cox will be sent to Brussels again with intention of seeking legal changes to it. However, Cox will be intimately involved in no deal preparation as part of the Brexit war cabinet set up by the Prime Minister.

McVey backed Johnson soon after finishing in last place in the first round of the 2019 leadership race. A vocal Brexiteer, she quit the Government in opposition to Theresa May’s deal. McVey served in Government as Employment Minister between 2013 and 2015 and as Work and Pensions Secretary in 2018. Before entering politics, McVey had a career as a TV presenter including a stint on GMTV. After losing the seat of West Wirral in May 2015, she went on to win the seat for Tatton in June 2017. As the 17th Housing Minister since 2000, many in the industry will hope she can survive longer than her predecessors. Should she do so, planning reform will be on top of her in tray.

Brandon Lewis MP - Minister of State (Home Office)

Jo Johnson MP - Minister of State (Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy)

Parliamentary seat: Great Yarmouth Majority: 7,973 Vote in 2016 Referendum: Remain

Parliamentary seat: Orpington Majority: 19,453 Vote in 2016 Referendum: Remain

MV1: ✓ MV2: ✓ MV3: ✓ Free Market vs. Interventionist: 6/10 Future Leadership Contender? 4/10

MV1: X MV2: X MV3: X Free Market vs. Interventionist: 4/10 Future Leadership Contender? 6/10

Having previously worked as a barrister, Lewis entered Parliament in May 2010. He has previously been Minister for Communities and Local Government, Minister for Policing and the Fire Service, and Minister for Immigration, before being promoted to Minister without Portfolio and Chairman of the Conservative Party. It appears he is returning to his old role in the Home Office, covering the Immigration brief. He will therefore be tasked with ensuring arrangements for EU nationals after Brexit as well as implementing the immigration white paper – should it survive in its current form.

Brother to the new Prime Minister, Johnson was Head of the No. 10 policy unit responsible for developing the 2015 Conservative manifesto. He served as Minister for Universities and Science, introducing the Higher Education and Research Act 2017. Johnson had resigned his post to back a second referendum stating that Theresa May’s plan was “nothing like what had been promised”.

However, he appears to be putting this behind him to re-join the Government. Tuition fees will be a key issue for Johnson. He is notably a critic of the Augar Review which calls for a reduction in tuition fees, so will likely seek to soften its recommendations or disregard them entirely.

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ALSO TO ATTEND CABINET MEETINGS Oliver Dowden MP - Paymaster General (HM Treasury) & Minister of State (Cabinet Office)

Kwasi Kwarteng MP - Minister of State (Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy)

Parliamentary seat: Hertsmere Majority: 16,951 Vote in 2016 Referendum: Remain

Parliamentary seat: Spelthorne Majority: 13,425 Vote in 2016 Referendum: Leave

MV1: ✓ MV2: ✓ MV3: ✓ Free Market vs. Interventionist: 6/10 Future Leadership Contender? 6/10

MV1: ✓ MV2: ✓ MV3: ✓ Free Market vs. Interventionist: 9/10 Future Leadership Contender? 6/10

Staying in the Cabinet Office, Dowden now will attend Cabinet for the first time. Previously a political adviser in No. 10 during Cameron’s premiership, Dowden was elected as an MP in 2015. Dowden backed Remain in the Referendum but supported Johnson during the leadership contest, working with the campaign’s transition team. Dowden will be working with Michael Gove to coordinate no deal preparations as well as ensuring the overall delivery of Government policy.

A member of the 2010 intake of Conservative MPs, Kwarteng was previously considered to be a rising star within the Party. He was PPS to Chancellor Philip Hammond prior to his promotion to a junior ministerial role at DExEU. A committed Brexiteer, he has long been an ally of Johnson and will likely take on the role vacated by Claire Perry as Energy and Clean Growth Minister. In doing so, reviewing and implementing the Energy White Paper will be high on Kwarteng’s agenda.

Jake Berry MP - Minister of State (Cabinet Office) & Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government Parliamentary seat: Rossendale and Darwen Majority: 3,216 Vote in 2016 Referendum: Remain

Mark Spencer MP - Parliamentary Secretary to the Treasury and Chief Whip

MV1: ✓ MV2: ✓ MV3: ✓ Free Market vs. Interventionist: 6/10 Future Leadership Contender? 4/10

Part of the 2010 Conservative intake, Berry keeps his current role as Northern Powerhouse Minister, but will now attend Cabinet. Prior to Johnson’s election, Berry publicly called for the Northern Powerhouse Minister to attend Cabinet and called for Johnson’s administration to show more political vision on the project. Berry is a close ally of Johnson and his appointment as a Cabinet Minister will be seen as a reward for supporting the new Prime Minister though times when his path to No. 10 seemed less certain. Berry will see much of his focus on the PM’s pledge to build a section of Northern Powerhouse Rail as well as ensuring as much of the £3.6bn fund for deprived towns is spent in the North.

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Parliamentary seat: Sherwood Majority: 5,198 Vote in 2016 Referendum: Remain MV1: ✓ MV2: ✓ MV3: ✓ Free Market vs. Interventionist: 5/10 Future Leadership Contender? 3/10

With a highly divided party and risk of further defections, Spencer has the unenviable task of seeking to manage what could soon be a working majority of one. A member of the 2010 intake of Conservative MPs, he has held various roles in the Whips office. Relatively unknown outside of Westminster, he nonetheless is well respected in Parliament receiving praise from all sides of the Party upon his appointment. Spencer will have to work hard to keep this reputation balancing the demands of the ERG and the DUP as well as keeping a whole raft of recent exCabinet ministers and anti-no-dealers on side.

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PRIME MINISTER BORIS JOHNSON: FIRST 100 DAYS

24 JULY

24 AUGUST

Boris Johnson appointed Prime Minister by the Queen.

G7 Summit in Biarritz: Boris Johnson’s first appearance at a major global summit.

Conservative Party

European Union

Government

International Relations

17 SEPT

31 OCTOBER

UN General Assembly meeting in New York. Provides an opportunity for Johnson to appear on the global stage and set out vision for the Country’s place in the world.

UK leaves the EU at 11am by automatic operation of law, unless further extension agreed with EU.

29 SEPT - 2 OCT

7 OCTOBER

17 - 18 OCT

Conservative Party Conference in Manchester.

Possible emergency budget.

EU Council Summit.

DAY 100

DAY 1

1 AUGUST

3 SEPTEMBER

12 SEPTEMBER

8 OCTOBER

Brecon and Radnorshire byelection.

Houses of Parliament return from summer recess.

Houses of Parliament rise for conference recess (est.)

Houses of Parliament return from conference recess (est.)

The route to an early general election

Parliament

3 SEPTEMBER

4 SEPTEMBER

Earliest a motion of no confidence could be tabled after summer recess.

MPs debate and vote on the motion.

If motion of no confidence passes, a statutory 14-calendar day period begins at midnight. During this period, a motion of confidence may be passed. Parliament could be recalled to vote on this if necessary.**

18 SEPTEMBER

19 SEPTEMBER

20 SEPTEMBER

If MPs haven’t passed a subsequent motion of confidence by the end of this date, an early general election is triggered.

Earliest date the Crown proclamation can be made to set the general election date.

Earliest date Parliament can be dissolved (beginning of the first working day after Crown proclamation).

25 OCTOBER

31 OCTOBER

Earliest possible polling day for a general election if convention of Thursday as polling day is set aside.

Earliest possible Thursday that a General Election could take place.

** If a new Government is not formed during the 14-day period, it is up to the incumbent Prime Minister to decide on the timing of a general election, meaning that this could be delayed until after 31st October.

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A NOTE FROM OUR EU TEAM EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier and Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker have rejected negotiating Prime Minister Johnson’s proposal to “abolish” the Irish Backstop from the Withdrawal Agreement. In a note to EU Member States, Barnier explained that he was willing and able to negotiate only within the mandate set out by EU27 leaders. At the last European Council Summit EU leaders decided that “there can be no opening of the Withdrawal Agreement”. In a phone call to Boris Johnson on Thursday evening, Juncker explained that the Commission is at disposal to add language to the Political Declaration in line with previous Council conclusions, and to analyse any ideas put forward by the UK. Barnier called on Member States to “remain calm” and stick to the agreed negotiation positions. This was not a result of rattled Member States, but reflects language used earlier in the year to remind leaders to show unity and stick to agreed language. There is concern amongst leaders regarding the appointment of what they regard as a populist and unreliable Prime Minister, but leaders are aware how important unity and a jointly agreed strategy has been in Brexit negotiations so far.

Boris Johnson has received a diplomatic but cold welcome from EU leaders in the traditional round of congratulatory letters and calls. Juncker and Council President Donald Tusk drafted notably short and terse statements, even containing jibes at Johnson’s grasp of detail. Member State leaders greeted Johnson in a less confrontational manner, but nonetheless stressed the importance of a positive and constructive working relationship. Johnson will not have any of the already limited goodwill Theresa May had amongst EU leaders, setting the scene for a more direct and confrontative relationship between the new UK administration and EU leaders.

The EU negotiating team (TF50) stand ready to negotiate throughout August, but under the current proposals little work is expected. The EU will likely wait for the new UK administration to set out its Brexit plans in more detail and engage more directly with Member States. Johnson’s first fixed date for meetings with EU leaders will be at the sidelines of the 24-26 August G7 Summit in France, but he may decide to have bilateral meetings earlier.

GET IN TOUCH Helena Walsh Managing Director - EU Public Affairs Helena.Walsh@cicero-group.com BXL: +32 (0)2 612 8152

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