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June 23, 2016

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CONTENTS

8.

14.

HERD AROUND TOWN

The DNC’s Donkeys Around Town program brings art on the hoof

ESCAPING THE DETENTION TRAP Philadelphia redoubles its efforts to change its corrections system

18.

LAST DAYS OF SCHOOL

Pennsylvania public education is at a financial precipice

24.

HOW PURPLE IS MY VALLEY?

The Lehigh Valley is a focal point for both parties

30.

PERSPECTIVES

Tom Ferrick explores how Trump could beat Clinton in Pennsylvania, and Sabrina Vourvoulias argues for lifting the statute of limitations on child sexual abuse

34.

The inaugural edition of a time-honored tradition

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Editorial Director Michael Johnson mjohnson@cityandstateny.com

RYAN BRIGGS

Editor Greg Salisbury gsalisbury@cityandstatepa.com Managing Editor Ryan Somers rsomers@cityandstateny.com Associate Copy Editor Sam Edsill sedsill@cityandstateny.com Staff Reporter Ryan Briggs rbriggs@cityandstatepa.com Director of New Business Development Annette Schnur aschnur@cityandstatepa.com Finance and Office Manager Allison Murphy amurphy@cityandstatepa.com

Vol. 1 Issue 3 - June 23, 2016

CITY & STATE IS THE PREMIER MULTIMEDIA NEWS ORGANIZATION DEDICATED TO COVERING NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA’S LOCAL AND STATE POLITICS AND POLICY. OUR IN-DEPTH, NON-PARTISAN COVERAGE SERVES AS A TRUSTED GUIDE TO THE ISSUES IMPACTING OUR STATES. WE OFFER ROUND-THE-CLOCK COVERAGE THROUGH OUR WEEKLY PUBLICATIONS, DAILY E-BRIEFS, EVENTS, ON-CAMERA INTERVIEWS, WEEKLY PODCAST AND MORE. CITY & STATE MAGAZINE Our print magazine delivers long-form cover stories, investigative exposés, in-depth industry analysis and entertaining features on a weekly basis.

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Cover art direction GUILLAUME FEDERIGHI Illustration by ALEX LAW AND GUILLAUME FEDERIGHI

Chairman Steve Farbman, President/CEO Tom Allon tallon@cityandstateny.com, Publisher David Alpher dalpher@cityandstatepa.com Creative Director Guillaume Federighi gfederighi@cityandstateny.com, Digital Manager Chanelle Grannum cgrannum@cityandstateny.com Copyright ©2016, City and State PA, LLC

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EDITOR’S NOTE THESE HAVE BEEN anxious years for anyone with even a remote interest and investment in the present and future success of Pennsylvania’s public schools.

For the parents worried about their children’s ability to compete for spots in higher education and the workplace; for education professionals concerned about current resources and likely pension funding shortfalls; for businesses focused on the employability of future graduates; and for politicians on both sides seeking fair funding formulas, it has been an agonizingly slow and fraught dance set to conflicting tunes.

By dint of their size, the travails of Pittsburgh and Philadelphia are often accorded the lion’s share of the conversation in both Harrisburg and the media, which is what makes Ryan Briggs’ cover story about the precarious state of school districts in the Northern Tier such essential reading. Crippling shortfalls, demanding interest payments on loans necessitated by this year’s nine-month budget standoff, dwindling populations and relentlessly increasing costs have all conspired to create a situation that could be described as tenuous at best.

Greg Salisbury Editor

The fate of the commonwealth’s children is also the subject of Sabrina Vourvoulias’ first column for City & State PA, as she tackles the battle to pass HB 1947, which would eliminate the statute of limitations for survivors of child sexual abuse – a godsend for countless adults who were unable to bring charges against their abusers.

Moving from those who should be convicted to those already in the criminal justice system, Briggs explores the byzantine ways that low-income offenders can become trapped in a never-ending cycle of probation and detention – and what Philadelphia, bolstered by a MacArthur grant, is doing to change the system.

Jake Blumgart, recently seen in these pages enlightening us about Pennsylvania power brokers, is back with an all-too-rarely seen topic: the Lehigh Valley’s status as neither Republican nor Democratic territory – a swing designation that will no doubt net the region more than a modicum of attention in the coming months.

Speaking of attention, all eyes will be trained on the Democratic National Convention in July, but if they’re looking for something else to focus on, it will likely be the parade of painted Fiberglas donkeys courtesy of the DNC’s Donkeys Around Town program, writes Natalie Pompilio.

Finally, we debut what we hope will be a regular feature in these pages, our monthly roundup of Winners and Losers. If you know of anyone who should be lauded or pilloried, let me know at: gsalisbury@cityandstatepa.com.

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City & State PA launches with a spirit of independence On May 18, 150 people from across the Pennsylvania political spectrum – including Philadelphia City Council members, Capitol staffers, consultants and reporters – gathered on the second floor of the recently redone Independence Visitor Center to celebrate the launch of City & State Pennsylvania magazine.

Those assembled enjoyed hors d’oeuvres both inside the second-floor ballroom and outside on a deck overlooking Independence Mall before heading inside to listen to Committee of Seventy CEO David Thornburgh expound on the necessity and value of a free and vigorous press.

BRIAN NEARY (LEFT) AND JEFF LANE

ANNETTE SCHNUR AND BYRON JOHNSON

CARMELLA JACQUINTO AND BILL PETTIGREW

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LEFT TO RIGHT: MICHELLE ATHERTON, ANDY TOY, NUMA ST. LOUIS AND MARWAN KREIDIE

GINA DIORIO AND DAVID THORNBURGH

WENDELL DOUGLAS

TOM ALLON (LEFT) AND SHARIF STREET

COUNCILWOMAN HELEN GYM AND BRUCE CRAWLEY

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Herd around town A parade of painted donkey statues will grace Philly for the DNC By NATALIE POMPILIO

JOSEPH KEMP

T

he images that best represent Pennsylvania’s neighbor across the Delaware River? According to New Jersey Democrats, most of the Garden State’s icons are human or human-made: the Atlantic City skyline, Frank Sinatra, the Tick Tock Diner and the Lower Trenton bridge, which bears the motto “Trenton Makes/The World Takes.” Not a single garden among them.

Meanwhile, the Democrats of Maine are all about the natural world, wanting to be best known for Mount Katahdin, wild blueberries, the state mammal (moose) and the newly chosen state crustacean (lobster, melted butter optional).

These unique insights into state Party psyches come courtesy of the Philadelphia 2016 Host Committee for the Democratic National Convention’s Donkeys Around Town program. On July 1, a total of 57 decorated donkey statues – one for each state, the five U.S. territories, Washington, D.C., and a single statue representing Democrats living in other countries – will take their place throughout downtown, ready to welcome the DNC’s 6,000 delegates and more than 40,000 other visitors, including journalists and tourists, as part of the July 25-28 convention.

Each statue is designed based on a list of suggested images submitted by the delegation it represents.

The public art project is meant to generate excitement about the convention, to showcase 30 local artists and the city's Mural Arts Program, and to encourage newcomers to explore the neighborhoods beyond the city’s historic core, said Angela Val, deputy executive director of the Philadelphia Host Committee.

“This is a chance to showcase that Philadelphia is more than cheesesteaks, the Liberty Bell and the Rocky steps,” Val said. “It shows Philadelphia is a fun place and people here have a great time.”

And what could say “fun” more clearly than a crowd of adults chanting “heehaw, hee-haw,” as they did in April, when former Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell, the

ILLUSTRATOR HAWK KRALL IS DESIGNING THE DONKEYS FOR NEW JERSEY AND NEW HAMPSHIRE

Host Committee chairman, announced the new program during a press conference?

Rendell said the parade was largely his idea, inspired by similar public art programs and a smaller-scale project for the Republican National Convention in 2000, which placed painted Liberty Bell replicas in the Pennsylvania Convention Center.

Rendell also unveiled the Pennsylvania donkey that day, the first one to be completed. The royal blue burro with yellow ears bears images of the Liberty Bell, the state flag and the Keystone State's official bird (the ruffed grouse) and flower (the mountain laurel). It will stand in the lobby of the Doubletree Hotel, where the state’s delegates are scheduled to stay.

The project’s $250,000 cost – financed by the largely corporate and private donations to the Host Committee – includes the statues, maintenance and the $1,000 stipend given to each artist for taking part in the project.

After the convention, each delegation

can opt to take its donkey home – if it covers the shipping and handling charges, which will range from $200 to $2,000. Any remaining donkeys will be sold at auction, with proceeds going to the project’s artists.

Illustrator Hawk Krall, who is designing the donkeys for New Jersey and New Hampshire, said while the pay wasn’t great, he was excited by the idea of producing art “that is actually out in the world … It’s going to be amazing to walk down the street and say, ‘Oh, there’s my donkey.’”

Krall, who lives in Philadelphia and once drew comic books, favors line-based illustrations in bright colors. That’s why he was excited by the New Jersey icon options presented to him. He’s imagining diner colors on one quarter, perhaps a boardwalk scene in traditional amusement park colors elsewhere. There’s only one element where he’ll have to be careful: The Atlantic City skyline. Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, still has his name on a casino there.

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DAVID HEIT

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A HERD OF UNPAINTED DONKEY STATUES AWAITING SHIPMENT TO ARTISTS

“Obviously, I don’t want to endorse the competition,” he said.

He’s actually lucky. At one point, the Trump moniker adorned three Atlantic City casinos. He lost control of most of them after four corporate bankruptcies.

Using statues for community engagement isn’t a unique idea. In 1999, Chicago hosted the first U.S. CowParade, placing

300 Fiberglas bovines decorated by local artists throughout the Windy City. Since then, the American company, CowParade Holdings Corporation, has staged similar events in 79 cities worldwide. The statues are kept on display for two to four months and are then put up for auction. A portion of the proceeds is given to local charities; according to the company, more than

$30 million has been given away in this manner.

Dozens of cities and counties have followed the CowParade model to create similar engagement efforts. In Juneau, Alaska, for example, artists painted whales. Sharks were on display in San Jose, Calif. Toledo, Ohio – once known as “Frogtown” because of its swampy beginnings – promoted itself with fourfoot tall Fiberglas frogs.

In 2015, Visit Philadelphia, the region’s official tourism marketing agency, unveiled three statues meant to inspire photos: a three-person bike at LOVE Park, and two large sets of “XOXO” letters at Independence Visitor Center and 30th Street Station. The agency hoped people would take photos with the statues and then share them on social media, preferably with the hashtag #VisitPhilly, essentially turning visitors into de facto brand ambassadors promoting the city as a tourism destination.

The campaign was wildly successful.

Between June 1 and Sept. 30, #VisitPhilly was used more than 48,000 times, mostly on Instagram. Compare that to 2014, when

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the hashtag was used about 21,000 times during the same time period. Instead of being removed as planned, the three statues will remain indefinitely.

The organizers of Donkeys Around Town hope this program has the same positive impact. Maps showing each donkey’s location will be available online as well as at tourism centers and hotels. A companion app will include a scavenger hunt during convention week with prizes available. The statues will be placed between the Delaware and Schuylkill Rivers and between Spring Garden Street in the north and the Navy Yard to the south.

“They’ll be indoors and outdoors, but never in a place where you have to buy a ticket or show I.D. to enter,” Val said. “We want people to be able to go in and take photos and then share them.”

There will even be a donkey on display outside the Union League. The organization, founded in 1862 to support the policies of Abraham Lincoln – a Republican – is hosting an exhibit for the event. That delighted Rendell, who, during a May press conference, praised the Union League’s leaders for this show of civic pride and unity.

“There may be some past presidents of the Union League, there may be some past presidents of the U.S., rolling over in their graves, but the Union League will take a donkey,” Rendell said.

It’s unclear if Rendell heard what one of the Union League’s representatives muttered in return: “We didn’t say what we would do with it.”

TOP: ARTIST ELLEN TIBERINO, WHO IS DESIGNING THE STATUES FOR PUERTO RICO AND DEMOCRATS LIVING ABROAD. BOTTOM: ARTIST MORGAN SHANKWEILER WORKING ON HER DESIGNS FOR MARYLAND AND MAINE.

PERHAPS THIS IS a good place to explain how the Democrats came to have the stubborn working animal as their symbol.

Andrew Jackson was the first Democrat to use the donkey as a symbol when he was a presidential candidate in 1828. His opponents called him a “jackass,” so Jackson decided to take the intended slur as a compliment, saying it meant he was steadfast and determined. He went on to beat incumbent John Quincy Adams in the election and became the country’s first Democratic president.

The influential Harper’s cartoonist Thomas Nast used the donkey to represent the Democrats about 50 years later. The connection stuck. Nast was also the first person to depict Republicans as elephants, thus creating another icon. A 2012 Smithsonian magazine article on the icons suggests Nast was inspired by the phrase,

JOSEPH KEMP

CityAndStatePA.com

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“seeing the elephant,” used at that time to mean gaining an experience at a high cost.

Republicans maintain the elephant represents strength and dignity.

Democrats today say the donkey is smart and brave. During the April project announcement, Pennsylvania Democratic Chairman Marcel L. Groen described the mascot as stable: “The donkey is not flashy.

The donkey happens to be a very down-toearth animal."

Not exactly fun, but do we really want a fun person to lead our nation?

DAVID HEIT, account manager for Roe Fabricators in Chester, said his company has never been asked to create an elephant statue but was fortunate to have a Fiberglas donkey already designed and on-hand when the Host Committee expressed interest in an order. (Roe also created the XOXO letters and the three-seat bicycle.)

“Ours was the superior design,” he said as a way of explaining what won the company the contract. “Up close, you can see the hairs of the donkey. Even the ears are proportionate.”

Each donkey is made of Fiberglas,

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weighs about 50 pounds and stands about four feet tall. The attached 200-pound steel base adds another 50 inches of height.

Each statue will have an attached “Do not climb” sign and a painted border around the base intended to act as a barrier.

“It’s OK to put a baseball hat on a donkey, but don’t climb the donkey,” Val said.

Still, she and Heit predict that rule will be broken. To that end, the Host Committee has put together a team of “donkey doctors” – volunteers who will spot-check the statues and determine if repairs are needed.

Businesses near the donkey statues have also agreed to monitor them.

“The ones that are outside in the elements – we’re not worried about the elements; we’re worried about the people,” Heit said. His past experience with Philadelphia statues has shown him that “people will take anything not nailed down. You wouldn’t believe it.

From the bikes, people take the handle grips and the pedals.”

While there’s always the risk of damage to outdoor sculptures, artist Ellen Tiberino said the public aspect of the project is what drew her to it.

“People can interact with it – it’s not just

something locked up in a museum,” she said.

“It’s living art and it becomes more personal when you experience it one-on-one.”

Tiberino usually crafts mosaics, but her donkeys – representing Puerto Rico and Democrats Abroad – will be largely painted with mosaic highlights. Her Puerto Rico donkey features some of her favorite memories from a trip she made to the island a few years ago: the traditional vejigante mask reminds her of a family of artists she met in San Juan who have been creating these designs for generations; the beaches were an obvious choice, she said, describing the clear waters around Vieques; and the Puerto Rican flag has long been a symbol of pride and showcases the island’s distinctive personality.

“Democrats Abroad” will include icons like Niagara Falls – the Canadian side – as well as Mount Fuji and the Eiffel Tower. Tiberino, a lifelong Democrat, said she’s excited to finally bring her ideas to life on the donkey and is even more excited about the DNC being in her hometown.

“I want to welcome my fellow Democrats to my city and show them a good time,” she said. “I think we should make this a big party.”

■

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SODA TAX PASSAGE IS KENNEY’S SWEETEST VICTORY YET

SODA TAX SUPPORTERS IN PHILADELPHIA’S CITY COUNCIL CHAMBERS CHEER DURING THE JUNE 16 VOTE.

IN A HISTORIC vote before hundreds of onlookers and media that is sure to resonate across the city and the country, the Philadelphia City Council approved an unprecedented soda tax on June 16.

Mayor Jim Kenney, who signed the bill into law on June 20, floated a 3-cent-perounce tax on sugar-sweetened beverages months ago to fund key campaign pledges, like universal pre-K and repairs to city parks and recreation centers. Unusually, around $1.5 million was spent by groups associated with the mayor to promote the tax, while beverage industry lobbyists spent nearly $5 million to kill the bill –

including a $700,000 last-minute ad blitz that failed to stem the bill’s momentum.

The heightened public profile of the revenue issue garnered significant national attention. The beverage industry – and other interested groups on both sides – viewed the proposal as precedent-setting, as Philadelphia would be the first major U.S. city to enact such a tax.

Ultimately, City Council approved a lower tax – 1.5 cents per ounce – on a wider variety of beverages, including, most significantly, diet drinks, in a move designed to spread out the burden of the tax beyond drinks perceived as being

primarily consumed by lower-income residents. By expanding the scope of the tax, proponents say, revenue will remain close to original projections.

“Philadelphia made a historic investment in our neighborhoods and in our education system today,” said Kenney in a prepared statement. “I commend City Council for working with these community leaders to make quality, affordable pre-K, community schools and systemic improvements to parks, rec centers and libraries a reality.”

Dozens of supporters and opponents of the tax packed the council chambers during the City Council’s last meeting before its summer recess. They described the tax, alternately, as life-saving or job-killing. The final 13-4 vote was met with deafening cheers and boos. Only the council’s three Republicans and Councilwoman Maria Quiñones-Sánchez, whose district includes beverage bottling plants, opposed the measure.

Now the mayor must actually implement a pre-K program and distribute other revenue, which has been earmarked for everything from shoring up the city’s depleted general fund to yet-to-bedetermined programs or projects in each council member’s district. Details have been vague on all counts, with much discussion centering around the tax itself rather than precisely what it would pay for.

Questions have already been raised about whether Kenney’s proposal of universal pre-K would be universal or even qualify as “pre-K” – in hearings, there has been talk of using soda tax revenues only for income-qualified residents or steering money to daycare-type programs.

Despite getting the bill through the council and affixing his signature to it, Kenney and his allies still have a ways to go. The American Beverage Association has retained the Center City law firm of Kline & Specter to file a lawsuit against the city over the tax, claiming that it is actually a thinly disguised sales tax.

Barring an injunction from the lawsuit, the tax will take effect Jan. 1, 2017.

■

JARED PIPER/PHL COUNCIL

By RYAN BRIGGS

Unconventional Approach:

While Philadelphia is in the throes of all DNC all the time, what are local and national Republicans doing to get oxygen – and airtime? We check in with GOP leaders to see how they’re getting their message out amid the hoopla.

There Goes the Neighborhood:

With unprecedented security zones, courtesy of every organization from the Secret Service to private firms, how is the area of South Philadelphia ringing the Wells Fargo Center planning to cope? From the seafood giant Samuels & Son to the thousands of workers at the Navy Yard to the residents on normally quiet side streets, life as they know it will be nonexistent for almost a week.

Coming to America – or not:

No fewer than three bills made it to the floor of the PA House this legislative session. In an era of immigration debate not seen in generations, we unpack the fate of these bills – and the people they would affect – during a hotly contested election year.

And opinion columns from Tom Ferrick and Sabrina Vourvoulias, an infographic breaking down just what it takes to put on the DNC and much, much more!

To advertise in this special issue, contact Annette Schnur aschnur@cityandstatepa.com or call 215-490-9314 ext. 3004

CS PA JULY2016_CS0016_FP.indd 2

6/17/16 3:43 PM

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How probation detainers contribute to Philly’s overworked criminal justice system By RYAN BRIGGS

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MARK STEHLE

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PHILADELPHIA MAYOR JIM KENNEY SPEAKS DURING THE MACARTHUR GRANT PRESENTATION AT CITY HALL

ABOVE AND RIGHT: IMAGES FROM THE CITY OF PHILADELPHIA’S HOUSE OF CORRECTIONS. PHOTOS BY MARK STEHLE

Road is on probation detainers,” said Ribot, referring to the cluster of city correctional facilities in Northeast Philadelphia.

It’s not the whole population, but it’s an increasingly large portion. As of June, around 2,800 of the 8,500 inmates in Philadelphia’s county jails – a full third of the city’s incarcerated population – were being held on detainer orders stemming from probation or parole. That’s up from 18 percent in 2009. (In similar cities, like Chicago, fewer than 10 percent of county inmates are held on probation or parole violations.)

Some of Philadelphia’s detainees, like Ribot, have never committed a violent crime. Technical violations, like being late to meetings with probation officers or failing drug tests, can also result in detainers or more probation time as punishment. And even if an individual is ultimately exonerated, they can receive more probation as punishment for simply being arrested in the first place – not an uncommon experience in a city that is also being monitored by federal authorities for illegally profiling minorities.

Court officials in Philadelphia argue that in a city with such a substantial criminal population – nearly 44,000 Philadelphians, or 3 percent of the city’s total population, are on probation at any given time – detainer orders are a crucial security feature.

“One of the things we ask when you’re on probation is that you not get arrested again,” explained Rick McSorley, deputy court administrator at Philadelphia’s First Judicial District. “These are people who have already been through the entire system

and have been found guilty.”

McSorley stressed that, with the exception of certain violent crimes, detainer orders were “not automatic.” While ultimately up to the judge’s discretion, the Probation Department has developed a “risk score,” which helps inform the use of of detention orders.

“The vast, vast majority of people with detainer orders are high-risk,” he said.

However, McSorley later provided Probation Department statistics from May showing that just 31 percent of the city’s current detainer population had, in fact, been deemed “high-risk.” Fifty-seven percent were moderate-risk; the rest were low-risk. Asked for examples of how the scoring system works, McSorley said the factors behind it were too “complicated” to explain.

Yet the nonviolent offenders who are held for extended periods of time on detainers, like Ribot, also contradict the notion the orders are mostly reserved for high-risk offenders. A 2009 Pew study found that 26 percent of detainees were being held on a misdemeanor arrest or lesser charge, with an average length of detention of up to 70 days.

Although McSorley said that study had oversimplified often-complex probation cases, in which offenders can have lengthy criminal backgrounds that contribute to the issuance of a detainer order for lesser charges. But he acknowledged that those ratios have probably remained unchanged seven years later.

Local criminal defense attorneys described the use of detainer orders in

SAMANTHA MADERA/CITY OF PHILADELPHIA

he first time José Ribot went to jail in Philadelphia, he couldn’t afford to make bail. The second time he went to jail, there was no bail at all.

It wasn’t because of the severity of his alleged crimes – both were for small-time drug dealing – and Ribot has no history of violence. But he took a plea deal his first go-around to get out of jail after sitting for months, landing years of probation as a result. His second arrest violated the terms of that probation and a judge lodged a detainer order against him – that meant no bail and little hope of release until his case wound its way through Philadelphia’s backlogged criminal courts.

For Ribot, that process would take 18 long months – a year and a half of never knowing when he’d be released or simply transferred to an actual prison, instead of the deteriorating county holding cells in Northeast Philadelphia.

Today, 31 years old and taking courses in social work at the Community College of Philadelphia, he makes no bones about his second arrest, in 2009, for selling a gram of heroin to an undercover cop in the city’s Kensington neighborhood.

“You grow up poor, you got to take a handout,” he said of his descent into selling drugs after his first arrest left him jobless.

“You get tired of living like that. That’s always how it starts. The consequences of that stuff doesn’t deter you when you’ve been living this life.”

But while the city says it reserves detention orders only for the most dangerous probationers and parolees, thousands of detainees like Ribot are taking up a growing number of the city’s critically overcrowded jail cells. Held in place by a judge’s order and stripped of bail, detainees present a stubborn obstacle to the city’s multi-year plan to shrink the county jail population, sponsored in part by a $3.5 million MacArthur Foundation grant.

Reform advocates worry that an overworked probation department and an agonizingly slow criminal trial process are inverting probation’s historical purpose as an alternative to jail for low-level offenders.

“The first arrest could be a minor charge, the second could be a minor charge,” said David Rudovsky, a civil rights attorney who has sued the city over prison overcrowding.

“The process is, ‘File a detainer and we’ll work it out later.’ But it’s not a conviction.

We’re punishing someone for being on probation and being arrested.”

Ribot said he was hardly alone as a detainee.

“Nearly the whole population up on State

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JOSE RIBOT AND MAYOR KENNEY

Philadelphia as “arbitrary,” and questioned the efficacy of the department’s scoring method.

“I’ve never, ever been able to figure out why, in some of my cases, the detainer gets lodged while in others, it doesn’t,” said Michael Engle, a member of the Pennsylvania Association of Criminal Defense Lawyers. “I’ve had clients over the years who have sat with a detainer for extended periods of time on what I consider to be nonsense cases.”

Part of the system’s reliance on detainer orders is related to staffing. In 1989, a 400-person probation department oversaw 30,000 probationers, then already one of the largest populations of its kind in the nation.

Today, the First Judicial District’s caseload has increased by nearly 16,000 offenders, while the department has contracted to just 386 staffers. Although caseloads vary based on an officer’s specialization, with 271 fulltime parole officers, that averages out to nearly 169 clients per officer.

That can make some POs more inclined to exercise caution and recommend detention for seemingly risky cases.

“We want to take a few more seconds and take a harder look at these cases, but the volume here is overwhelming,” said McSorley.

While the need for some consequence to probation and parole violations is necessary in any criminal justice system, McSorley acknowledged that the current system “isn’t working.”

“Can we do something more?” he asked.

“The answer is, ‘definitely.’ We are looking at not detaining as many people, using electronic monitoring or day centers. But we need more staff to do it, and funds are limited. I want the future of Philadelphia to be one where the crime rate is nonexistent.

And we’re not going to get there by incarcerating people.”

That could be slowly changing. The city instituted the “Advanced Review and Consolidation” program last year to combine and expedite certain probation cases. McSorley and other department heads from across Philadelphia’s criminal justice system have been working for years on implementing technological upgrades to expand house arrest or wireless monitoring as an alternative to jail time.

The next item on McSorley’s wish list is a request for proposals to add 600 new wireless and GPS-based electronic monitoring systems to the city’s toolkit to encourage house arrest over jail time for minor offenders.

For years, the city has relied on a small

number of antiquated tracking units that require a landline to function. This year’s MacArthur grant will help fuel a longawaited expansion of that system with modern monitoring equipment. McSorley said that the first round of modernized monitoring systems would be targeted at the city’s larger pretrial population, but the system could expand to probation and parole violators in coming years.

For Ribot, that can’t happen soon enough.

He said he took a plea deal that included probation after his first arrest because the district attorney offered it to him as a way to get out of jail without having to cough up money for bail, which he couldn’t afford on a minimum-wage salary. After talking to other inmates during his time in prison, he said he now views probation as “a trap” for poor kids from troubled neighborhoods, where arrests are practically a fact of life.

“When you get your first case, the thing they offer you is called a ‘six-five split,’” he explained. “It’s six months jail, five years probation. But you’re young, what’s the possibility of you spending five years on probation and getting in no trouble whatsoever?” he asked rhetorically. “It doesn’t have to be a major violation. You did a traffic violation? You get a detainer. Bus is running late when you have to come in?

You get more probation. So you could be on probation 10 years later for something that happened when you were 21. They want to keep you in the system.”

That can mean more prison time, not less, in the long run. Speaking after the conclusion of his first college semester, which he enrolled in with help from Community College of Philadelphia’s Re-entry Support Project, Ribot said the system was especially punishing for those with chronic substance abuse problems, who are often repeatedly arrested for drug possession.

The MacArthur reforms are also committed to diverting more probationers and parolees who test positive for drugs during supervision to treatment programs, as opposed to detention. According to McSorley, this is the latest salvo in the debate over whether addiction should be treated as a criminal justice issue or a public health crisis.

“Drug addiction is a huge problem in this city, and you don’t want to incarcerate everybody that has an addiction problem,” he said. “But when they violate, they violate, and we have to respond. I don’t know what the answer is. When do I drop the hammer? It’s a bigger issue than just the local criminal justice system.”

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Pennsylvania’s rural school system is at a precipice Story and photos by RYAN BRIGGS

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LONG THE MAZE of state roads that wind through Pennsylvania’s remote Northern Tier, wildflowers are blooming white and purple, and the canopy of trees glows verdant across the folds of endless rolling hills. On Route 6, the main road into Potter County, a wooden sign proclaims, “Welcome to Potter County: God’s Country.”

To the seasonal tourists and anglers, it must seem to be so. But behind this idyllic facade, God’s country is dying.

“The economic base is pretty poor here, so we lose all our best people,” says Jerry Sasala, superintendent of Austin Area School District. “A lot of retired people move in because the land is so cheap, but it’s not putting money in the economy.

Everything is being hollowed out. We’re killing ourselves just to try and keep the schools up.”

Sasala’s class size is down 20 percent from a decade ago, mirroring the county’s flagging birth rate. His special education costs are way up, in backwards lockstep with a faltering local economy – 42 percent of his students come from families living near the federal poverty line. It’s a district where fracking wells, once viewed as an economic boon, now sit idle, victims of cratering petroleum prices. Longtime factory employers have shuttered – the Piper Aircraft factory down the road from Austin was long ago converted into a state prison. Drug overdose rates in the county have doubled over the last 10 years.

But the problems in this remote school district are easy for outsiders to ignore, as might be expected for the commonwealth’s smallest school district, which graduated just 12 students this year.

It’s the evening before the last day of school and Sasala stands inside the school’s gymnasium, where 200 empty folding chairs are arranged in identical rows. This is the home of the Austin Panthers – the school’s basketball team and its last remaining boy’s athletics program – but the auditorium is empty, for now.

With only a dozen seniors graduating this year, I ask who all the chairs are for.

“The whole town likes to come out for the graduation,” Sasala says confidently.

“There’s not much to do around here. The school is the center of the community.”

That may not be true for much longer, depending on the outcome of state budget talks at the end of this month. Strangled

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by mounting retirement payouts and cyber charter costs, but burdened with few viable revenue options, the kids that graduate this year could be the last class to pass through Austin’s halls. Even with a smaller number of children to educate, many rural districts across the state are saddled with fixed costs, like building upkeep or the fact that a school must have at least one algebra teacher.

Sasala has a thick brown beard and wears hiking shoes to work, and runs a cattle ranch down the road. He came out of retirement years ago after the last superintendent left. As we walk the halls of the empty high school – which also doubles as the elementary school – he says he thinks they might be able to eke out another year, but they’ve already cut advanced placement courses and repeatedly consolidated staff.

“What that looks like for us as administration is, we have dual roles,” he explains. “Our elementary principal is the guidance counselor and curriculum director. I’m the superintendent and the high school principal. Everybody is doing more than one thing.”

The changes may be more acute here, but the same is true for many of Pennsylvania’s 174 rural school districts.

Much like the crippling funding shortages in urban areas, a recent Public Interest Law Center report estimated rural districts are short about half a billion dollars in state funding.

But the crisis faced by Austin and other backcountry districts is also a story of shifting demographics. While Pennsylvania’s cities are growing, the population in nearly every rural county has fallen, according to the most recent

OTTO-ELDRED SCHOOL DISTRICT SUPERINTENDENT MATTHEW SPLAIN AT OTTO-ELDRED HIGH SCHOOL, WHICH HAS CUT COURSES, TEACHERS AND ATHLETIC PROGRAMS TO STAY AFLOAT.

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census estimates. Just 20 out of 67 counties gained population over the last five years; nearly all were primarily urban or suburban.

In Potter County, people are moving out, people are dying and property values are stagnant – the median home price in the region is $95,000, half the national average. The young people that graduate don’t stick around, their sights set on more economically prosperous places, and the retirees that replace them are averse to paying more taxes for schools they’ll never use. The youngest generations are harder to teach, as classes become increasingly composed of the poorer families who couldn’t get out. Homelessness, once nearly unheard of, is rising.

District officials in Potter County say they feel like the rest of the state has forgotten about their remote corner of Pennsylvania.

“They really don’t get it,” said Northern Potter School District superintendent Scott Graham. “We’re closer to Toronto than Philadelphia. Buffalo is the closest big city. We always have to go to Harrisburg because they never come up here, so you’re driving eight hours for a three-hour meeting. I don’t think people from affluent areas really know what we’re going through.”

Pennsylvania’s educational funding crisis is frequently perceived as an exclusively urban issue, in part because of the remoteness of districts like Austin and Northern Potter, and because rural schools suffer from fewer student disciplinary issues. But the scale of the issue is immense, rivaling the crises in some large urban districts when taken as a whole.

According to data compiled by the Public Interest Law Center, at least 174 of the 500 school districts in the commonwealth are almost entirely rural in character, accounting for some $4.8 billion in state funding annually and some 317,000 pupils.

Ninety-five of those districts – with about 117,000 students – relied on the state for half to three-quarters of their annual budget, more than even Philadelphia’s famously troubled district. The state pays an average of $9,000 per student to these severely distressed districts – nearly onethird more than the average student in an urban district.

And yet it is still not enough. PILC estimates that rural districts are suffering through a state funding shortfall of between $440 million and $592 million.

A report released this month by the Pennsylvania Association of School Administrators indicated that 75 percent of all school districts in the state planned to raise taxes to cover operating deficits this year, and half planned to cut staff positions.

Graham guesses that number is closer to 100 percent for rural districts.

“I don’t know how every other rural district isn’t running a deficit right now.” he adds.

While education policy is often complicated, Graham says his district’s funding problem is easy to understand.

“Since 2007, our budget has gone up 8 percent, but our revenues have only gone up 4.5 percent – our salary line item is lower than it was in 2004,” he says, emphasizing that he is now paying out more money for fewer teachers.

Graham said rising pension and health care costs, increasing special education costs and cyber charter expenses were driving the increase. His district, nestled between rolling farmland and scattered

Amish communities, is heading into the next fiscal year with a nearly $500,000 hole in its $9.2 million budget.

Today is the last day of school. It’s a beautiful day outside, and Graham has just finished grilling hot dogs with his graduates, an annual tradition at Northern Potter. But as he recounts grim financial statistics inside a barren conference room, his smile fades.

“A million dollars is health care. A million dollars for retirement. You look at salaries and then it’s like, ‘Do you have any money left for classrooms?’ We eliminated 15 jobs out of 50 over past 10 years,” he says. “I don’t know if I have a solution out there. It would be different if I could see an end to it. But there’s no light at the end of the tunnel.”

At times, Graham seems on the verge of tears. But his assessment of the situation is not inaccurate. Many rural schools no longer have a budget for classroom supplies or textbooks. While every school has had to cope with increasing state-mandated contributions to the Pennsylvania Schools

IN HIS OFFICE, SPLAIN DESCRIBES HOW HIS DISTRICT HAS STRUGGLED ECONOMICALLY.

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OTTO-ELDRED HAS CUT MANY OF ITS TECHNOLOGY COURSES AND ONE OF ITS TWO SHOP TEACHERS, TO THE DISMAY OF SENIOR TREVOR CARLSON.

Retirement System and increased health care costs, rural districts are feeling these shifts more dramatically and have less ability to cope.

“It’s a drain on all districts, but it’s a particular drain on rural schools – it’s economy of scale,” said Joe Bard, executive director of the Pennsylvania Association of Rural and Small Schools. “In the end, the effect is multiplied in a rural area.”

In other words, one or two seriously ill teachers can blow a hole in a school’s health care budget – and that’s exactly what’s happened, according to Graham.

The same is true of cyber charters, a scandal-plagued remote learning option.

Rural districts are more likely to get cyber charter applications because of their sprawling geography, but also because they are more likely to have families that choose remote learning for religious reasons. And as rural districts grow poorer, their special ed costs have grown, too – almost doubling for Northern Potter, which has a 50 percent student poverty rate. The state only picks up half of those costs.

Graham says the dying local economy and a paradoxical lack of affordable rental units in an area with rock-bottom

real estate prices is driving a pattern of increasingly transient families and threegeneration households.

“There’s not a lot of affordable housing for people to rent,” he adds. “It’s just a reality of the number of buildings available. No one is looking to make an investment here. So people are moving in with their grandparents. We have several families that have been displaced. They’re coming back here because they can’t find work, so they’ve gotta move in with mom and dad and bring the grandkids with them. It’s supposed to be temporary, but it’s becoming more permanent.”

These districts are hamstrung by tiny budgets and minimal local revenue options. A state law passed in 2006, Act 1, requires voter approval for increases to school property taxes above an indexed rate. Graham says that he maxes out his Act 1 allotment each year, but that only generates about $50,000. In a highly conservative area, most administrators seem to assume a tax referendum, even to fund a beloved school, will fail.

The urgency of these converging forces, according to district officials interviewed across Potter and neighboring McKean County, does not seem to be felt in

Harrisburg. State legislators are not expected to meet a June 30 budget deadline, an ill omen for districts that just weathered a nine-month budget impasse.

Many schools took out commercial loans just to patch their budgets.

Graham’s school was one of them, and he fears his district will be stuck with an extortionate interest rate if it has to borrow again. He doesn’t see how this year won’t be worse than the last, even if Harrisburg passes $313 million in new educational spending proposed by Gov. Tom Wolf.

“If the legislature says, ‘We’ll give Wolf everything that he wants next year,’ I get 80 grand. That won’t even cover PSERS increases,” he said. “That’s the best-case scenario next year – unless somebody decides they want to put more in.”

That’s a long shot at this point. Wolf’s office admitted any true fix to the state schools crisis will take years to come to fruition.

“These issues are recognized widely by both parties in both houses; no party wants to go through another budget impasse, but we have a long way to go,” said Wolf spokesman Jeff Sheridan. “We need to tackle school pension reform, but

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there’s no pension bill out there that saves money now. It’s all going to take time.”

Graham says this attitude is frustrating – everyone claims to support schools, but nothing changes. I ask him what he thinks local legislators mean when they say they support education.

“I think it means that you say, ‘I support education,’” he says. “But there’s no backbone to it. The problem is that we have a revenue issue in this state and no one wants to raise taxes. Meanwhile, we’ve got all these huge increases in mandated costs. If the federal government or state says special education is mandatory, why are they only paying for half my special education bill?”

In Harrisburg, consolidation is being floated as a fix for shrinking rural districts, but it draws scoffs in Potter County, where 2,800 students are scattered across nearly 1,100 square miles. Many students already take transportation for roughly an hour each day, and the next-closest schools are anywhere from a few dozen to more than 50 miles away.

“There are three stoplights in the whole county, and two are in (the county seat),” said Graham. “Our district is 231 square miles of no stoplights. I have to travel 20 miles to go to the grocery store here.

Schools are the center of town. When people cavalierly talk about closing schools in this part of the state, you’re talking about crushing a town.”

Bard said his group views consolidation as a buzzword, an easy answer to a problem where there isn’t one. He said the last round of school consolidations, in the 1960s, brought the number of districts down from 2,500 to 500, but produced hard-to-quantify fiscal benefits.

“There are still problems in a number of areas of the state because of those mergers,” he says. “They’re like broken bones that never heal. It’s like a panacea to many people that doesn’t deliver the goods. Everyone thinks it’s good – until they find out their local high school won’t have a football team.”

Graham also pointed to the example of Cameron County, another rural area that consolidated all its districts decades ago. Today, the 401-square-mile unified district runs a $300,000 deficit, comparable to similar schools in nonunified counties.

Many districts are praying for more state funding to emerge, like manna from heaven, and looking at canceling “secondary” classes that are probably not-so-secondary in struggling rural

THE GYMNASIUM AT AUSTIN AREA HIGH SCHOOL IS SET UP FOR THE SCHOOL’S GRADUATION CEREMONY, WHICH WAS ATTENDED BY MANY OF THE TOWN’S RESIDENTS.

communities.

Otto-Eldred School District, in neighboring McKean County, has already jettisoned home economics, technology courses, numerous athletics programs and cut one of two shop teachers, to the dismay of senior Trevor Carlson.

“I’m more of a hands-on kind of guy,” he says, cracking a crooked smile. “I wouldn’t have gone to school otherwise.”

The superintendent of Carlson’s district, Matthew Splain, is standing next to Carlson and an array of jigsaws in the shop room, but he doesn’t react. Trevor’s joke has a lot of truth to it.

Even when the school had more shop classes and a technology program, many kids were unprepared for the grim local job market – an Ethan Allen furniture plant and a block glass plant were both recent casualties of rural deindustrialization. The schools themselves are frequently some of the largest local employers.

“You have less economic opportunity here when it comes to high-productive paying jobs,” explains Splain. “With oil and gas going downhill, that’s had an effect. The district is getting poorer. I grew up here 35 years ago, and it’s not the same. You’ve got substance-abuse issues now, situations where kids aren’t being raised properly. They’re being neglected.”

Splain’s high school doesn’t have a valedictorian; it has “mantle holders” from several fields of study, including industrial arts. It’s a big deal in an area where job options can amount to voluntary exile or, say, starting a welding business locally.

Carlson is the industrial mantle holder this year, having completed his high school’s CAD drafting course.

He’s headed to a welding program at Jamestown Community College, across the state line in New York. He’s supposed to symbolically “pass down” the mantle to a younger student in his program, but there weren’t enough shop classes this year for any juniors to complete the necessary courses.

“I’m passing the mantle down to a teacher,” he explains, to avoid being left out of the ceremony. “It would have been nice to pass it on to someone below me.”

The schools crisis is not lost on the county’s general population. The front page of the Endeavor, a tiny local newspaper, was covered with articles about deficits at local districts. At the New Plaza Diner, in Galeston, a circle of men in camo hats grumbled about perpetually rising taxes for teachers who only seem to

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work half the year.

Talk easily turns to drug problems caused by ne’er-do-wells from distant downstate cities, illegal immigrants, lazy welfare recipients or even Chinese subversion – all essentially amount to unseen actors. But what other explanation is there? In many ways, little has changed in the Northern Tier in the past halfcentury – it lacks suburban sprawl, there are few chain stores, cell phone and internet service is intermittent, and the area has remained uniformly white. But at the same time, everything seems to have gotten worse.

When it comes to schools, the broader consensus is that cities like Philadelphia suck up all the funding. This belief is repeated by students like Carlson, and even the superintendents I spoke to. Regional politicians, like powerful Senate President Pro Tempore Joe Scarnati, whose district includes Potter, McKeon and Cameron Counties, do little to dispel these notions.

“That’s what our local representatives say – that’s the story they tell us, that (Harrisburg is) trying to send all this money to Philadelphia,” said Graham.

But aside from a failed attempt by Wolf to restore funding to cities that was cut under the Corbett administration, this has never really been part of the political dynamic in the capital. In many ways, rural and urban schools are in the same boat, held hostage by a legislature terrified of raising taxes in an aging state with mounting government expenses.

School advocates acknowledged and excoriated the tactic.

“It’s so easy to drum up anti-Philadelphia emotions in other places in the state,” said Bard. “It’s trying to get people to eat their young and divide public education against itself, which is a really stupid thing to do.”

Scarnati’s office didn’t directly comment on those assertions, except to say he was pleased Wolf dropped his plan to restore funding specifically cut in urban districts.

While he added that he looked forward to working with the legislature on pension and charter school reform to realize educational cost savings, he stopped short of proposing new sources of revenue, like tax increases.

“While many rural schools could be helped by more funding for education, more money alone is not the complete answer,” he said in an email. “Schools need to have the ability to make some important reforms at the local level.”

Scarnati’s office proposed reviving a legislative bill designed to strip out union

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seniority protections for teachers, which Wolf vetoed earlier this year. But best guesses at the cost savings that could be realized by getting tough on unproductive teachers are in the low millions – a report on Philadelphia’s $2.8 billion-dollar budget found about $1.7 million lost to socalled “ghost teachers” – not the billions PILC estimates are needed.

Advocates like Bard say that the schools crisis cannot be fixed by efficiencies alone in a state that ranks 44th in education spending.

“When you start talking about more money or raising taxes to bring an increase in revenue, there is not political will,” he said. “People are concerned more about people’s tax concerns than funding education. But I also don’t think there is enough public support in rural areas to raise taxes to fund education.”

In one of the most Republican parts of Pennsylvania, even public school administrators are tinged by local conservatism. Sasala, from the Austin School District, personally struggles with the fact that he’s had to raise school taxes on his neighbors every year for the last five years. He says he feels like a victim of his own responsible budgeting during better fiscal years – he has little left to cut.

As we walk back to his office from the Panthers’ auditorium, Sasala confesses he’s not sure how he’ll budget another year. He has his sights set on convincing

Scarnati to up the remittance Austin gets from the commonwealth for the stateowned land that takes up 80 percent of the district. The state pays just one-tenth of the revenue generated by privately held land – $1.25 per acre. Sasala wants to double that.

In an area where the perception of selfreliance is prized, Sasala doesn’t position this as begging the state for more funding.

The land is sometimes leased by the state to oil, gas and mining concerns for a profit.

“We’re just asking for our fair share,” he says.

Scarnati says he’s on board, but passing the proposal is still a long shot. That money would still have to come from somewhere else in the state budget.

Next to Sasala’s cluttered desk, there’s a vintage photograph of the old Austin dam.

Built in 1909, the dam was designed with 30-foot walls, but the paper mill that built it cut corners on construction materials and made the walls too thin. The dam burst three years later, wiping out old Austin and killing 78 residents. The ruins are just up the road from the school.

When asked about the photo, one of many office tchotchkes installed years ago and since forgotten, Sasala looks up, surprised.

“That dam broke because they were trying to save money,” he says, considering the metaphor above his head. “What killed the town was cutting costs. I guess it’s like the dam all over again.”

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HOW PURPLE WAS MY VALLEY

LEHIGH VALLEY RAMBLINGS

As the Lehigh Valley’s electoral significance increases, so does the battle for party prominence By JAKE BLUMGART

CityAndStatePA.com

W

LEHIGH VALLEY RAMBLINGS

HEN THE FBI raided Allentown’s City Hall last year, the feds brought an end to one of the Lehigh Valley’s most powerful political operations. Mayor Ed Pawlowski has been at the head of the third-largest city in Pennsylvania for 10 years and, until it became clear that his right-hand man had been wearing a wire, he reigned as arguably the most influential Democratic politician in the region. Today, Pawlowski has been humbled, although not indicted, and his uncertain status has contributed to the sense of a power vacuum in the Lehigh Valley.

The region has long been a bastion of the kind of politics largely alien to Pennsylvania. The region is composed of two counties, Lehigh and Northampton, which are genuine swing districts where the parties actually have to compete in general elections – a rarity both in the

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economy performed better than that of its counterparts after the Great Recession, creating 12,200 jobs since December 2007 – a 3.5 percent increase (the state as a whole gained 1.05 percent).

For all of the Lehigh Valley’s economic success, much of it driven by its proximity to the New York metropolitan area, its politics are much less clearly defined than its counterparts in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh or the largely rural vastness of central and northern Pennsylvania. The region’s political culture is not dominated by any particular institution or power structure. Unlike, say, Philadelphia, there are few generational political families. The

MARY ELLEN KOVAL MIKE FLECK

state and nationally. The winners usually govern in a relatively clean and scandalfree fashion, which is (lamentably) worth noting.

The Lehigh Valley is a region apart in other ways as well. For most of the 20th century, it shared a similar character with much of the rest of Pennsylvania, dominated by concentrations of heavy manufacturing and small industrial cities.

But as the state fell from third- to sixthlargest in the nation in terms of population, the area distinguished itself by continuing to add residents.

Today, Allentown, its largest city, is more heavily populated than ever before, while Bethlehem is just a few hundred residents shy of its 1960 peak. The region’s

ED PAWLOWSKI

labor movement is not as strong as it once was, and neither are the political parties.

Republican Sen. Pat Toomey is the first prominent politician from the area in generations.

In the wake of the FBI investigations that have implicated numerous Allentown officials – centered around key Democratic Party operative Mike Fleck – the area’s political class has been receiving far more attention than usual. The scandal involves alleged pay-to-play regarding city contracts, which revolve around Fleck and “Public Official No. 3” (who is generally assumed to be Pawlowski) demanding campaign contributions for doing business with the city. Pawlowski had been considered a contender in the Democratic primary races for governor in 2014 and senate in 2016.

“We are a small world that’s getting bigger every moment,” said Tony Iannelli, CEO and president of the Greater Lehigh Valley Chamber of Commerce. “This was always a very small-town environment that’s now growing up at a much more rapid pace, so we’re in a much larger fishbowl than we were in the past … FBI investigations in the Lehigh Valley are not the norm – it’s brought in a ton of attention.”

The region’s scandals have largely focused on Allentown, a city of more than 118,000, and one that is unlikely to slip from the Democratic Party’s control anytime soon. During much of the 20th century, the mayor’s office swung back and forth between the two parties, with the last Republican holding it in 2002.

Since 2000, the Democratic voter registration advantage in Allentown has become overwhelming. In municipal elections last year, Republicans weren’t able to wrest away a single city council seat, while the Democratic city controller was re-elected with over 60 percent of the vote – before resigning in early January and then pleading guilty of conspiracy to commit fraud.

“Last year, we had contested elections for controller and city council where the Republican Party spent a fair amount of money letting voters know they had a choice in that election,” said Dean Browning, a former head of the Lehigh County Republican Party and former Lehigh County commissioner. “Voters in Allentown basically said, ‘Well, we don’t care.’”

Democratic control of the city has coincided with a large increase in its Hispanic population, from 12 percent of

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ALLENTOWN CITY HALL

residents in 1990 to 42.8 percent in 2010.

(2014 U.S. Census Bureau estimates peg its Hispanic population at 46 percent.) The vast majority of this demographic is Puerto Rican, not foreign-born, which eliminates a barrier at the ballot box.

In the age of Trump, these voters likely won’t be leaving the Democratic column in the foreseeable future. That’s a big part of the swing toward the Democratic Party in Lehigh County, which, at the beginning of the millennium, saw a rough parity between the number of voters registered with both parties. Not anymore. Today, the Democrats have over 109,000 registered voters (with 40,000 in Allentown according to Browning), compared with over 76,000 registered Republicans (12,000 of them in Allentown). In Northampton County, there are almost 95,000 registered Democrats to almost 69,000 Republicans.

The growing Hispanic population isn’t the only base of support for the Democratic Party. Since the Pennsylvania section of Interstate 78 was completed in 1989, white-collar professionals working in North Jersey and New York City have flocked to the region for cheaper housing and lower property taxes. While their political allegiances are more diverse, their numbers have helped the Democrats compensate for the decline of the Lehigh

LEHIGH VALLEY RAMBLINGS

DEAN BROWNING

WAYNE WOODMAN

Valley’s manufacturing sector and the industrial labor unions that were once the party’s backbone.

That’s not to say the region is a lock for Democrats. “I think you see the impact of (the influx of Hispanic residents) in presidential elections,” said Browning.

“I have yet to see a dramatic upswing of Hispanic turnout in off-year elections.

They haven’t been galvanized into a political force for those elections.”

A good indication of the Republican Party’s continuing vitality in the region is its ability to pull off surprise victories with candidates who can attract voters beyond the traditional Republican base. In 2013, the mayor of the small town of Bangor, John A. Brown, defeated the vastly better-known and better-funded mayor of Bethlehem, John Callahan, for executive of Northampton County. His victory surprised everyone except Brown himself, who is now the Republican candidate for state auditor general.

Brown was no anomaly. Outside the cities, elections are far more competitive.

President Barack Obama may have won both counties in 2008 and 2012, but the area’s principal congressional representative is a Republican: U.S. Rep. Charlie Dent. In Lehigh County, the Board of Commissioners has a Republican supermajority and a Democratic executive, while Northampton is completely controlled by the GOP. The row offices are usually split between the parties.

Both counties have a higher than usual number of voters registered outside the major parties. In Lehigh 16.3 percent and in Northampton 17.7 percent are unaffiliated, compared with 13.1 percent statewide and 10.2 percent in Philadelphia.

“We don’t compromise anymore because state and federal districts are so gerrymandered, but the Lehigh Valley isn’t like that yet,” said Glenn Eckhart, controller for Lehigh County and a veteran of Republican politics in the region. “It’s a majority Democratic county, so you have to work with both parties, bring commonsense conservative issues and sell them to both Republicans and Democrats.

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GLENN ECKHART

I’m just as much a partisan Republican as anyone else, but I try to work with everybody.”

But the Lehigh Valley Republicans are in an awkward space as both the national and state parties become more partisan, and ideological ticket-splitting becomes increasingly rare. After decades where the counties voted for Republican presidential candidates, Democrats have won the Lehigh Valley in every presidential election since 1992. That hasn’t proved decisive in other races before, but with a candidate as divisive as Trump at the top of the ticket, voters may be less likely to vote for both Hillary Clinton and down-ballot Republicans this year.

Tellingly, Congressman Dent endorsed John Kasich for president and has yet to say if he is willing to support Trump. Even Toomey – the first U.S. senator from the Lehigh Valley – is working to distance himself from his party’s presumptive nominee and his polarizing rhetoric.

Attempts to bring a more conservative political bent to the region have had mixed success. Toomey is no moderate, of course, and the same year he was elected to the Senate, California native Wayne Woodman took control of the Lehigh County Republican Committee as chairman. Although he hadn’t been much involved in local politics before, Woodman was inspired to get involved by Obama’s victory. He brought a discipline and ideological commitment that the local party had previously lacked. In 2011, his

candidates dominated the county-level races, even driving Browning from office for not being sufficiently anti-taxation.

Once in power, they cut taxes and began questioning spending across the board.

“The county commission in Lehigh went from a pretty sleepy, ineffectual group to a group that over the last five years has really achieved some fundamentally outstanding results for taxpayers,” said Woodman, who stepped down in 2013 but is still involved in local politics outside the auspices of the local Republican Party.

Woodman’s team proved exceedingly controversial. After one of his 2011 candidates, Scott Ott, lost the 2013 executive race to a former centrist Republican-turned-Democrat, Woodman stepped down and moderates took over the party again.

Today, even Woodman, the former Tea Party-backed scourge of Lehigh’s moderates, has distanced himself from Trump. With the freedom that comes from not holding elected office like Toomey and Dent, Woodman wrote an op-ed in March for the Morning Call, in which he vowed to never support Trump. But as local Republicans edge away from the presumptive nominee, it remains to be seen if that will be enough to save GOP candidates in 2016 and in years to come.

Woodman himself isn’t willing to talk about the candidates he hopes to back in the near future, but his efforts seem to be

LEHIGH VALLEY RAMBLINGS

LEHIGH VALLEY RAMBLINGS

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JOHN A. BROWN

apart from the Lehigh County Republican Committee.

“As of right now, we are focusing more on the lower offices – Congress and state reps and stuff,” said Trevor Waldron, the executive director and sole full-time employee of the Lehigh County Republican Committee, and an undergraduate student in political science and history at Muhlenberg College. “I feel that would make more of a difference than the presidency right now with the way things have been going. But anything could happen in the next several months.”

Political scientists believe that it will only get harder for local parties and local politicians to distinguish themselves from their national counterparts.

“People are paying less and less attention to local politics,” said Renée M. Lamis, a political consultant in Erie County and author of “The Realignment of Pennsylvania Politics Since 1960: Two-Party Competition in a Battleground State,” which was published in 2009.

“A lot of it (dates back to) the culture wars, when a lot of people who identify as moderate began to be really turned off by national attention on social issues that the Republican Party espoused starting in the 1980s,” Lamis said. “Now, with Trump as the Republican nominee, they’ve got a megaphone.”

In her book, Lamis shows that the state’s growing regions, like the Lehigh Valley and the Philadelphia metropolitan area, are becoming increasingly Democratic (especially in presidential elections).

Shrinking regions, like much of the rest of the state, are moving toward the Republicans.

The Lehigh Valley is likely to keep on growing, according to the Lehigh Valley Planning Commission, which projects that the region will add several hundred thousand new residents over the next several decades.

More to the point, if national political trends continue to subsume regional and local allegiances, then swing regions like these two counties may end up more firmly in the Democratic camp.

But natives on both sides of the aisle are skeptical of such an analysis.

“As Philly’s suburban counties have become more blue, we are seeing more progressive pressure in the Lehigh Valley,” said Geoff Brace, a Democratic commissioner for Lehigh County. “But there’s still a strong sense of the Lehigh Valley as a distinct region with distinct values. There’s still a lot of grey in the Lehigh Valley – or purple, if you prefer the red and blue (paradigm). That’s the reason it’s so interesting.”

■

CityAndStatePA.com

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We know it can be hard to keep track of all the different legal issues facing Pennsylvania Democratic politicians, so we have created this handy reference guide in the spirit of Pin the Tail on the Donkey. See if you can find room for them all!

PLEADED NO CONTEST 12/15 Defendant: State Rep. Louise Bishop Nature of Charges: Accepted $1,500 bribe from criminal i no contest to misdemeanor charge, resigned Prosecuto

PLEADED GUILTY 10/14 Defendant: State Sen. LeAnna Washington Nature of Charges: Used Senate staff to plan her birthday party political fundraisers for eight yearst Status: Pleaded guilty Prosecutor: Attorney General

PLEADED GUILTY 12/15 Defendant: Former Allentown Solicitor Dale Wiles Nature of Charges: conspired to award city contract for deli than the one that originally won the contract Status: Pleade

FOUND GUILTY 7/14 Defendant: Traffic Court Judge Robert Mulgrew Nature of Charges: Perjury related to the ticket-fixing scandal that brought down Traffic Court Status: Guilty. Prosecutor: Federal authorities

PLEADED GUILTY 6/15 Defendant: Former State Rep. Harold James Nature of Charges: Accepted $750 bribe from criminal in Status: Pleaded guilty, resigned Prosecutor: Philadelphi

FOUND GUILTY 7/14 Defendant: Traffic Court Judge William SIngletary Nature of Charges: Perjury related to the ticket-fixing scandal that brought down Traffic Court Status: Guilty. Prosecutor: Federal authorities

PLEADED GUILTY 12/15 Defendant: Former Reading mayoral aide Eron Lloyd Nature of Charges: created bribery scheme involving Fr guilty; awaiting sentencing Prosecutor: FBI

FOUND GUILTY 7/14 Defendant: Traffic Court Judge Michael Lowry Nature of Charges: Perjury related to the ticket-fixing scandal that brought down Traffic Court Status: Guilty. Prosecutor: Federal authorities

PLEADED GUILTY 6/15 Defendant: State Rep. Michelle Brownlee Nature of Charges: Accepted $2,000 bribe from criminal Pleaded guilty, resigned Prosecutor: Philadelphia DA

FOUND GUILTY 7/14 Defendant: Traffic Court Judge Thomasine Tynes Nature of Charges: Perjury related to the ticket-fixing scandal that brought down Status: Guilty. Prosecutor: Federal authorities

PLEADED GUILTY 6/15 Defendant: State Rep. Ron Waters Nature of Charges: Accepted $8,750 bribe from criminal Status: Pleaded guilty, resigned Prosecutor: Philadelphi

ACQUITTED 7/14 Defendant: Traffic Court Judge Michael Sullivan Nature of Charges: Alleged perjury related to the ticket-fixing scandal that brought down Traffic Court Status: Acquitted. Prosecutor: Federal authorities

PLEADED GUILTY 2/15 Defendant: State Treasurer Rob McCord Nature of Charges: Attempted extortion Status: Awaiting

CityAndStatePA.com

m criminal informant in AG sting Status: Pleaded Prosecutor: Philadelphia DA

29

HEARING POSTPONED Defendant: State Rep. Marc Gergely Nature of Charges: Accused of using influence to benefit illegal video gambling ring Status: Awaiting trial Prosecutor: Attorney General AWAITING TRIAL 1/16 Defendant: Former Allentown Controller Mary Koval Nature of Charges: Charged with pay-to-play in her capacity as controller and Allentown Parking Authority board member Status: Awaiting trial Prosecutor: FBI PLEADED GUILTY 4/16 Defendant: Former Easton Councilman Michael Fleck Nature of Charges: Conspiracy to commit extortion, bribery, tax evasion Status: Pleaded guilty Prosecutor: FBI AWAITING TRIAL Defendant: Former Harrisburg Mayor Stephen Reed Nature of Charges: Corruption, theft, deception, bribery, etc.

Status: Awaiting trial Prosecutor: Attorney General AWAITING TRIAL Defendant: Former Rendell Aide John Estey Nature of Charges: Charged with wire fraud in connection with his theft of funds from a phony lobbying firm set up by the FBI Status: Awaiting trial Prosecutor: Federal authorities PLEADED GUILTY 1/16 Defendant: Former Allentown Finance Director Garrett Strathearn Nature of Charges: conspired to award city contract for delinquent tax collection to a different firm than the one that originally won the contract Status: Pleaded guilty; awaiting sentencing Prosecutor: FBI PLEADED GUILTY 2/16 Defendant: Former Reading Council President Francisco Acosta Nature of Charges: Accepted an $1,800 bribe in exchange for working to repeal anticorruption statutes Status: Pleaded guilty, received a two-year sentence Prosecutor: FBI

es act for delinquent tax collection to a different firm atus: Pleaded guilty, resigned Prosecutor: FBI

AWAITING TRIAL Defendant: Attorney General Kathleen Kane Nature of Charges: Obstruction of justice and two felony perjury counts for lying about leaking grand jury documents to Daily News reporter Chris Brennan Status: On trial Prosecutor: Montgomery Co. DA

criminal informant in AG sting hiladelphia DA

CHARGED WITH BRIBERY 5/16 Defendant: State Senator Larry Farnese Nature of Charges: Accused of buying vote of an also-indicted committeeperson by paying $6,000 for her daughter’s study abroad program, as well as wire and mail fraud Status: Indicted Prosecutor: FBI

n Lloyd volving Francisco Acosta Status: Pleaded

UNDER INVESTIGATION Defendant: Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski Nature of Charges: Not indicted yet, but frequently named as central figure in pay-to-play scheme Status: Reportedly under investigation Prosecutor: FBI

m criminal informant in AG sting Status: phia DA

ON TRIAL Defendant: Congressman Chaka Fattah Nature of Charges: Theft of educational grants to repay illegal campaign loan related to 2007 mayoral campaign, along with counts of bribery, racketeering, fraud Status: On trial Prosecutor: FBI

m criminal informant in AG sting hiladelphia DA

UNDER INVESTIGATION Defendant: Former Reading Mayor Vaughn D. Spencer Nature of Charges: No charges yet; Reading Eagle reports that he has received a “target letter” from federal authorities Status: Under Investigation Prosecutor: Federal authorities

s: Awaiting sentencing Prosecutor: FBI

AWAITING TRIAL Defendant: State Rep. Vanessa Lowery Brown Nature of Charges: Accepted $4,000 bribe from criminal informant in a corruption sting initially orchestrated by the state Attorney General Status: Awaiting trial Prosecutor: Philadelphia DA

CityAndStatePA.com

30

PERSPECTIVES

WELCOME TO TRUMPSYLVANIA How The Donald could take the Keystone State in November

By TOM FERRICK

TRUMP'S SUPPORTERS ARE ENCOURAGED BY HIS SHOWING IN THE APRIL GOP PRIMARY, WHERE HE OBLITERATED HIS OPPOSITION, COMING IN 35 POINTS AHEAD OF TED CRUZ, WHO RAN SECOND.

IF YOU WANT to know how Donald Trump can win Pennsylvania in November, I can tell you just by looking at the numbers.

Not by opinion poll numbers, which are ephemeral and sometimes flawed.

Not by speculating about how the campaign will unfold; no one can predict that.

I can do it by looking at numbers that tell how Republican and Democratic candidates have performed in the key media markets in Pennsylvania over the last 25 years.

Those numbers reveal patterns in voter behavior and, just as importantly, how those patterns have changed.

Donald Trump can win Pennsylvania if he does four simple things: 1. Keep Hillary Clinton’s numbers down in Philadelphia.

No one expects him to win the city, but if he can get 25 percent to 30 percent of the vote, it will help him enormously. His objective will be to cut the margin and, if possible, tamp down turnout.

2. Do well in the Philadelphia suburbs and the Lehigh Valley. By “well,” I mean win at least two of the counties – Chester and Berks are the most likely candidates – and keep it as close as possible in the other counties, losing to Clinton by 4 to 6 points in each. The votes he gets in these counties will offset the margin Clinton will build up in the city.

3. Pile on the Trump vote in central Pennsylvania. In the past, Republican candidates have won 70 percent of the vote in this populous conservative heartland. There are nearly 1 million voters in the 14 counties that comprise the Harrisburg/Lancaster/Lebanon media market.

4. Win big in western Pennsylvania. Trump likely will not win Allegheny County, which includes Pittsburgh, but the Republican Party is resurgent in the former coal and steel areas that surround the city. In 2012, Mitt Romney, whom Trump labeled a lousy candidate, won 11 of the 12 counties in the Pittsburgh media market (he lost Allegheny County) and 11 of 12 counties in the Johnstown market (he lost to President Obama by a narrow margin in Centre County).

So, there it is. Congratulations, Mr. Trump: Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral votes are yours.

Now, what are the odds of Trump achieving all of these goals? On a scale of one to 10, I would give him a two.

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Let’s take them one by one.

1. Keep Clinton’s numbers down in Philadelphia. Good luck with that. The last Republican to get over 30 percent of the vote in Philadelphia was George H.W. Bush in 1992, when he won a 34 percent share of the vote to Bill Clinton’s 66 percent. That Republican share has gone down in every election since. Mitt Romney got 15 percent in 2012.

Two factors are at work: the demise of the Republican Party in Philadelphia and the rise of black voter participation. Generally, Philadelphians are very Democratic, but the city’s black voters are fanatically so. They gave Barack Obama 99 percent of their vote in 2008 and 2012. Some have argued that Obama being the first black president had something to do with that, but black voters also gave 98 percent of their vote to Al Gore and John Kerry, both white Democrats.

An argument could also be made that black voters will have less enthusiasm for a white woman who registers low on the charisma scale, translating into lower turnout. Before assuming this, please recall that Trump was a leader in the “birther” movement in 2012, which disputed Obama’s parentage and citizenship. I am sure the city’s black voters will be reminded of that before the election and will act accordingly.

2. Do well in the suburbs. Here, Trump runs into a situation not of his own making. The big trend in the last 25 years is the transition of the Philly suburbs from Republican to Democratic. Republican candidates up until the 1990s could count on the suburbs to cut or eliminate the Democrats’ historical edge in Philadelphia.

The last Republican to do that was George H.W. Bush in his 1988 race against Michael Dukakis – 28 long years ago.

In 2012, Romney did win Chester and Berks Counties (by thin margins), but Obama won the other suburban counties and the Lehigh Valley by a margin of about 140,000 votes.

Add on Obama’s 490,000-vote margin in Philadelphia, and he ultimately left this media market with a 632,000vote lead over Romney.

That made Obama unstoppable. Although he did lose in central Pennsylvania and Romney did very well in western Pennsylvania, Republican gains in other regions of the state were simply not enough. Romney ended up losing the commonwealth to the president by a margin of 309,000 votes.

Now, let’s come back to here and now. Do you think Trump can outperform Romney’s 2012 showing in the suburban counties outside Philadelphia? To be sure, there are angry voters here, but many of them are women who are angry at Trump for denigrating other women. How he does in the Philly suburbs and the Lehigh Valley will decide the election in November. I doubt Trump can do better than Romney did in these southeastern counties – and he could easily do worse.

3. Pile on the Trump vote in central Pennsylvania. This area still is strongly Republican, but the days of a Republican getting a 70 percent margin have long passed. Younger, more liberal voters have moved into the new suburbs in York, Dauphin, Cumberland and Lancaster counties.

The presence of black and Latino voters is stronger. The upshot is that while Republicans still win, the margins

now average 60-40 in this media market.

The big question I have about Trump here is his standing among white, conservative, middle-class Protestant voters. Will they embrace a hedonistic New Yorker whose style is more Augustus Caesar than Norman Rockwell?

In this area of the state, Republicans who cannot vote for their party’s candidate usually don’t vote Democrat instead. They just skip the presidential race and focus on the down-ballot elections.

4. Win big in western Pennsylvania. This should be a Trump stronghold, where there are many voters who embrace his combative America First message. This has always been the angry zone of Pennsylvania, and voters here finally have someone who matches their dispositions.

The fly in the ointment is Allegheny County, which includes Pittsburgh and remains resolutely Democratic.

There are nearly as many voters in this county (925,000) than there are in the other 11 counties that constitute the media market (950,000).

In 2012, Romney won by as much as 68 percent in the surrounding counties, but got only 46 percent in Allegheny County. The pro-Obama volume of the vote in Allegheny nearly offset the pro-Romney vote in the surrounding counties. The result: Romney won this market by just 38,000 votes.

Can Trump blast through the trends and win Pennsylvania by keeping Clinton’s margin down in the city, by trouncing her in the suburbs, by winning central Pennsylvania by 70 percent, and then administering the coup de grâce to Clinton with a huge showing in the west?

Trump’s supporters are encouraged by his showing in the April GOP primary, where he obliterated his opposition, coming in 35 points ahead of Ted Cruz, who ran second. That showing demonstrated the Trump appeal, but beware of making too much of it.

The Republican primary drew 1.5 million voters. Since the total vote in the general election is likely to be close to 5.5 million, there are an additional 4 million voters yet to be heard from. They will get their say on Nov. 8.

■

Tom Ferrick is an award-winning reporter and columnist who has covered state and local government and politics since the 1970s.

CityAndStatePA.com

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PERSPECTIVES

HOW MUCH IS A CHILD’S WELL-BEING WORTH? HB 1947 SAILED through the Pennsylvania House in April.

Amid the most hotly contested and heavily covered primary in recent memory – not to mention any number of political scandals, from Kathleen Kane to Rob McCord to Chaka Fattah – you could be forgiven for missing it.

The bill, proposed by Dauphin County Rep. Ron Marsico, a Republican, would eliminate the statute of limitations in criminal prosecutions of childhood sex abuse. The legislation also proposes to increase the age limit for those who were sexually abused as children to bring civil suits against individuals and organizations from 30 to 50, and – in an amendment added by Berks County Rep. Mark Rozzi, a Democrat – those suits could be brought retroactively.

The bill was approved by a 180-15 vote, and has now passed to the state Senate Judiciary Committee for consideration, where it is expected to come to a vote shortly.

It is almost certain that the sudden shift in the legislative winds (similar bills have been presented before and have always gone down in flames) was prompted by the March grand jury investigation into 40 years of clergy sexual abuse in the Altoona-Johnstown diocese, as well as recent allegations that legendary Penn State football coach Joe Paterno may have been aware of his assistant coach Jerry Sandusky’s serial predation as early as 1976.

But there was one additional piece of testimony in favor of the bill: Rozzi’s impassioned, last-minute plea to his fellow legislators, which included a recounting of his own abuse, at age 13, by a Catholic priest.

As the Penn State case highlights, serial abuse and institutional willful ignorance are not restricted to Pennsylvania’s Catholic churches. Still, the Pennsylvania Catholic Conference has been a vocal opponent of previous legislative attempts to reform the statute of limitations, marshaling action through its Catholic Advocacy Network.

HB 1947 is on the Pennsylvania Catholic Conference’s action alert list.

Amy Hill, a spokeswoman for the organization, said that while the PCC does not oppose the bill’s elimination of the criminal statute of limitations, it considers the retroactive measure unfair.

“It allows lawsuits to be filed against private institutions for long-past actions, but continues to protect public ones, including schools and juvenile facilities,” she said. “The Catholic Church has a sincere commitment to the emo-

STRUVICTORY

By SABRINA VOURVOULIAS

tional and spiritual well-being of individuals who have been impacted by the crime of childhood sexual abuse, no matter how long ago the crime was committed. But bankrupting the ministries of today’s Catholics, like their parishes, schools, and charities, is not justice.”

Both points were echoed in the comments Catholics in the pews (who didn’t want to be named) gave me when I asked their opinions of the bill.

“As I understand the bill, it allows for a cap on the amount of damages a public organization can be held responsible for, but for private institutions there would be no limit,” said a member of one of Coatesville’s parishes.

His remarks were a bit pointed, and he seemed testy that I had even asked.

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CityAndStatePA.com

STATE REP. MARK ROZZI

A member of St. Laurence Parish, in Upper Darby, was kinder but no less firm in his feeling that the Catholic Church was being singled out: “My hope is that the culture would take the time to stop and look at what the church is doing to heal wounds rather than seek to give an opportunity for others to keep wounding her (financially).

What good can it do? It’s the Year of Mercy!”

Hill also focuses on the work the Catholic Church has done to put aright the wounds of the abuse. “To date,” she said, “Pennsylvania’s dioceses have spent more than $16.6 million on victim/survivor assistance services to provide compassionate support to individuals and families.”

But the optics are a bit tricky.

In 2012, The Associated Press reported that the Archdiocese of Philadelphia (which has been the subject of two grand jury clergy sex abuse investigations) had spent $11.6 million from 2010 to 2012 on legal fees, “most of it on priest sexual abuse cases,” and who knows how much more in the four ensuing years (the Archdiocese did not respond to my request for an updated total).

Moreover, the Philadelphia Archdiocese is the only one of the 10 dioceses in the commonwealth the Pennsylvania Catholic Conference represents. Just like that, that $16.6 million in aid to victims statewide doesn’t seem quite so significant or generous a sum.

An audit released by the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops on May 20 indicated a 35 percent increase in claims of sexual abuse by clergy (838 from July 1, 2014 to June 20, 2015, compared with 620 during the same audit period the year before). According to Religion News Service, the bishops of the conference have said that a large number of those claims were made in the six dioceses that had declared bankruptcy or opened “windows” permitting retroactive lawsuits.

That potential financial hit to the dioceses, of course, is the fear that surrounds opening a window to retroactive

suits. But is that what we should be focused on?

For Rozzi, the answer is clearly "no."

“I’m not concerned whether they go bankrupt; my concern is for the victims,” he told me. “It comes down to two words: truth and justice. As a victim, I want the truth to be known and justice served. That’s my reason to see this legislation through.”

He characterizes the other arguments the PCC has put forth in opposition to HB 1947 as disingenuous at best.

“Before HB 1947 was being discussed, did you ever hear the church express concern about the statute of limitations with regard to public institutions? No. The Catholic Church knows that public entities are under sovereign immunity (in Pennsylvania’s constitution). They’re using this as a last straw man argument.”

He further maintains that no public entity has the history of collusion to hide sexual abuse that the church has. He’s discovered that the priest who raped him abused 200 other children – beginning in the 1950s. “Let me be honest,” Rozzi said, “the difference between the Catholic Church and public high schools is that they put the (abusing) priests back into dioceses – you don’t see superintendents moving the (abusing) teachers from district to district.”

At the time Rozzi was abused, he would have had to bring civil suit against his abuser within two years, and criminal charges within three – something he knows he was too traumatized and too young to do – and so he’s focused on the statute of limitations as a means to offer some measure of justice to other child victims.

The Bryn Mawr Foundation to Abolish Child Sex Abuse makes a point of reminding its supporters that the bottom line for the legislation has to be about justice for the victims, and making sure that the protections afforded to children are ironclad. HB 1947, the organization’s action alert states, “puts predators on notice that there will be NO time limits when they will feel safe from being identified and prosecuted if they sexually abuse a child.”

The U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops audit found that $153.6 million was spent nationwide in dioceses and religious orders on settlements and expenses related to childhood sex abuse claims last year.

That is an almost inconceivably large number.

But then I remember those lines from “Erin Brockovich,” where the lawyers are beginning to outline the terms of what might be fair compensation for very real damages sustained by very real people: “I want you to think real hard about what your spine is worth, Mr. Walker. Or what you might expect someone to pay you for your uterus, Ms. Sanchez. Then you take out your calculator and you multiply that number by a hundred.”

And so I swap “spine” in that sentence with “your childhood faith and innocence,” and “uterus” with “your child’s mental health,” and suddenly, the money spent to date doesn’t seem nearly enough.

■

Sabrina Vourvoulias is an award-winning metro columnist at Philadelphia Magazine and an op-ed contributor to The Guardian US. Her novel, “Ink,” was named one of Latinidad’s Best Books of 2012. Follow her on Twitter @followthelede.

CityAndStatePA.com

34

TOM WOLF – After last year’s disastrous budget impasse, some were ready to write off Wolf as a one-term guv. It’s tough to say how much of that was solely his fault or how much of a hand he had in crafting recent compromises as budget talks wind down, but the buck has to stop somewhere, right? The combination of wins like bringing alcohol sales into the 21st century, the prospect of (gasp!) an on-time budget and a temporary feeling of legislative congeniality seems like a stay of execution at the very least.

OUR PICK

OUR PICK

WINNERS

LOSERS

Philadelphia just made history as the first big U.S. city to enact a soda tax, while Pennsylvania is on the cusp of passing a crucial budget amid fears that pols will repeat last year’s nine-month budget impasse. But will the tax die in court? Will the final weeks of June see a budget or just more hand-wringing? The only certainty is that we’ve already got some Winners & Losers:

THE AMERICAN BEVERAGE ASSOCIATION – Industry hopes that millions spent on lobbying – including a last-minute $700,000 ad blitz – to rebrand Mayor Jim Kenney’s soda tax as a “grocery tax” would rout the levy on sweetened beverages were dashed. Barring the outcome of a likely court challenge, Philadelphia will set an unwelcome (for the ABA) precedent as the first big city to tax pop. Be on the lookout for soda speculators cleaning out the city’s lone Sam’s Club.

THE BEST OF THE REST

THE REST OF THE WORST

JOE SCARNATI - State Senate prez whose vision of

ERIC PAPENFUSE - Mayor of Harrisburg

compromise appears ascendant

ANTHONY HAMLET - Beleaguered Pittsburgh

VANESSA LOWERY BROWN & JORDAN HARRIS - The two

schools superintendent

Philly state Reps who brought down Confederate flags

Contact Us Tom Allon, President/CEO Tom has been a leader in local neighborhood-based journalism and the New York City publishing industry for the past 25 years. He is currently the CEO and co-owner of City & State NY, the most influential political media company in New York State.

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Greg Salisbury, Editor Greg Salisbury is a Philadelphia native and a proud resident of West Philly. He has been involved in journalism since becoming editor of the Estes Hills Elementary newspaper when he was in sixth grade. He is thrilled and relieved to finally have a definable rationale for obsessing over all things political every day. Greg can be reached at 215-490-9314 ext. 3002 or gsalisbury@cityandstatepa.com

Ryan Briggs, Staff Reporter Ryan Briggs is a native of Bucks County who has lived in Philadelphia since 2004. A graduate of Temple University, he has covered urban politics and policy for the Philadelphia Inquirer, Daily News, City Paper, Next City, PlanPhilly and Philadelphia Magazine. Ryan can be reached at 215-490-9314 ext. 3003 or rbriggs@cityandstatepa.com

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