Powells Creek Flood Study
9.
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
9.1.
Overview
The following sensitivity analyses were undertaken to establish the variation in design flood levels and flow that may occur if different parameter assumptions were made: • •
• • •
Manning’s “n”: The hydraulic roughness values were increased and decreased by 20%. Blockage (pipes): Sensitivity to blockage of all pipes was assessed for 20% and 50% blockage. Climate change (rainfall increase): Sensitivity to rainfall/runoff estimates were assessed by increasing the rainfall intensities by 10%, 20% and 30% as recommended under current guidelines. Climate change (sea level rise): Sea level rise scenarios (elevated levels in the Parramatta River) of 0.4 m and 0.9 m were assessed. Comparison of results with the ARR 1987 methodology 2016 Powells Creek Revised Flood Study (Reference 2).
These sensitivity scenarios were undertaken for the 1% AEP rainfall event with a tailwater level of 1.4 m AHD in the Parramatta River.
9.2.
Climate Change Background
Intensive scientific investigation is ongoing to estimate the effects that increasing amounts of greenhouse gases (water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, ozone) are having on the average earth surface temperature. Changes to surface and atmospheric temperatures may affect climate and sea levels. The extent of any permanent climatic or sea level change can only be established with certainty through scientific observations over several decades. Nevertheless, it is prudent to consider the possible range of impacts with regard to flooding and the level of flood protection provided by any mitigation works. Based on the latest research by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, evidence is emerging on the likelihood of climate change and sea level rise because of increasing greenhouse gasses. In this regard, the following points can be made: • • •
greenhouse gas concentrations continue to increase. global sea level has risen about 0.1 m to 0.25 m in the past century. many uncertainties limit the accuracy to which future climate change and sea level rises can be projected and predicted.
9.2.1. Rainfall Increase The BoM has indicated that there is no intention at present to revise design rainfalls to take account of the potential climate change, as the implications of temperature changes on extreme rainfall intensities are presently unclear, and there is no certainty that the changes would in fact increase design rainfalls for major flood producing storms. There is some recent literature by CSIRO that suggests extreme rainfalls may increase by up to 30% in parts of NSW (in other places the projected increases are much less or even decrease); however, this information is not of WMAwater C:\Users\dewar\Desktop\Work\PowellsCkCanadaBay120079\Admin\Report\PowellsCk_FS_CanadaBay.docx:21 April 2022
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