Figure 8 and Figure 9 show Penticton’s GHG emissions inventory from 2007 to 2018 and its business-as-usual forecast from 2019 to 2050. Figure 8 shows emissions by fuel type (note that propane and heating oil are not visible on the graph due to low emissions contribution). Figure 9 shows emissions from the five sectors stacked on top of one another to show total emissions. Between 2007 and 2018 there was an increase in emissions of 6.8%, with some annual fluctuations in between. Emissions are expected to decline from 2021 onwards. It is anticipated that the biggest reductions will come from passenger vehicles/mobility fuels. This is due to Provinical climate policy such as the Zero Emission Vehicles Act in British Columbia. The yellow and red lines indicate Penticton’s OCP and new reduction targets, respectively. In a business-as-usual scenario, Penticton will meet its OCP target in 2030, but fall well short of the new targets for both 2030 and 2050.
Backcasting Approach: Envisioning our Future Backcasting is a planning approach that starts by defining the future vision, examining the current state, and identifying a path to achieve the vision. The concept of “backcasting” as used in this planning processes was developed by the Natural Step, as seen in Figure 10.
Awareness & Defining Success
Over the course of two workshops, City of Penticton staff and stakeholders:
Visioning
Developed a vision of their desired low carbon future, focusing on three sectors: transportation, buildings, and waste Identified the current state of the sectors Brainstormed creative solutions to compliment the Big Moves, and Prioritized the solutions
See Appendix A for action details and lead departments to carry out implementation, and Appendix F for a summary of the workshop content, and post-workshop survey results.
Creative Solutions Future
Decide on Priorities Baseline Current State
© 2011 The Natural Step
Figure 10 – Backcasting Approach. Source: The Natural Step
Penticton CCAP
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