Forecasting:
Action Plan Projections
Figure 12 shows the modelled emissions reduction by Big Move for the year 2030, relative to BAU projections. If all Big Moves are implemented in Penticton to the degree outlined in this Plan, GHG emissions in 2030 could be reduced by 58,800 tonnes of CO2e below 2030 BAU, or 94,400 tonnes below 2007 levels, a total reduction of 42%, which meets the new 40% reduction target. Diverting organic waste from landfill produces the largest reductions at 20,600 CO2e. Whilst the BAU scenario assumes a certain level of passenger vehicle electrification, this Big Move still presents major emission reductions, at 18,900 tonnes CO2e of mobility fuels, primarily gasoline, while the collective actions from Shift Beyond the Car reduce an additional 2,300 tonnes CO2e. Retrofitting the existing building stock by fuel switching and improving energy efficiency presents savings of 8,300 and 6,000 tonnes CO2e respectively, or 14,300 tonnes CO2e in total. The vast majority of these reductions are from natural gas, at 13,600 tonnes CO2e. Figure 13 shows the emissions reduction by Big Move to 2050 relative to the BAU. By 2050, the Big Moves are expected to reduce emissions by 75,800 tonnes CO2e vs. the 2050 BAU, for a net reduction from 2007 levels of 163,300 tonnes CO2e, resulting in a 73% reduction vs. 2007 baseline. Note that although the 2050 emission reduction target is not met, it is anticipated that new technologies and levers will become available in the future which will enable Penticton to achieve the target.
Figure 12 – GHG Savings By Action, tonnes/yr
The modelling methodology is described in detail in Appendix E.
Penticton CCAP
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