Retail rapport 2016 by ColliersNorway

retail market norway november 2016

Retail Market Report Norway

contents

summary 5 highlights 7 the retail market norway 9 key areas, oslo 12

footfall 18

investment 22 shopping performance 25 shopping centres 26 food & beverage 29 data and figures 31 about colliers 34

Retail Market Report Norway

summary Haakon Reed-Larsen

Head of Retail Colliers International Norway

Despite the decrease in the petrolium industry and the implications this has had for the Norwegian economy, the Norwegian retail market is still performing quite strongly with an AIC (Actual Individual Consumption) level more than 15% higher than the AIC level for the other Nordic countries. During the past years, the rents for high street locations has in general increased slightly. Going forward however, we believe the rents to level out and remain stable for the next coming years. Colliers International in Norway have the last 20 years had a strong focus on advising our clients within the Retail sector, as is the strategy for Colliers Globally. This Retail report is our first specialized retail report in Norway, and to our knowledge the first in depth retail report ever produced in Norway. We hope this report can give a valuable market input to our clients, and potential clients, highlighting our strong competence within advising tenants on finding the right space and terms to open a new store, advising owners of shopping centers of new concepts on the footstep to Norway and helping owners of vacant retail space to find the best tenants. Our focus is all types of retail business, but I would like to put focus on our strong competence within food and beverage and international retailers. We are here to help you make the right decisions.

Retail Market Report Norway

highlights

salary

The average Norwegian salary for all employees is EUR 52 000 per year.

home renewal

NorwayÂ´s capital

The average Norwegian household spends approx EUR 3 100 per year on home renewal (decoration, furniture, appliances etc.)

Oslo, offers a variety of shopping. 1, 5 million people live in the Oslo region.

shoes & clothing

shopping habbits

The average Norwegian household spends approx EUR 2 600 per year on shoes and clothing.

More than 30 % of all retail sales in Norway take place in shopping centers

transportation

70 % of all households have a car and almost a quarter have two cars

unenployment

4,5 % amongst the lowest unemployment rate in Europe

Retail Market Report Norway

the retail market norway The retail market has since the 2000s evolved significantly and is currently changing at a rapid pace. Online retailing is grabbing an ever increasing stake in the total retail market. In Britain, online retailing is currently responsible for around 20 % of the turnover in the sector, while in Germany and the Nordics, the number is at 11 % and steadily increasing. This brings along new challenges for traditional retailers everywhere. The retailers are having to adapt to a whole set of challenges and the retail and logistics sector is becoming increasingly intertwined with the emergence of online shopping. This puts less emphasis on physical premises and more focus on logistics and fast delivery. All across Europe we see a very strong demand in industrial property and in certain areas, especially in the Americas, we now see several large cities with a yield premium in retail compared to industrial property. Interestingly, we have lately seen online retailers such as Amazon which have opened their own physical store in Seattle which may make one contemplate if online retailing is the only way of the future. The key development that we are seeing is that several retailers are struggling. If we for a second keep the macro picture out of the equation and isolate the retail side of the issues, the overall demand for retail space is decreasing for reasons such as more power to the larger shopping centres as well as a larger focus on e-commerce through out the country.. Certainly, in some areas and streets there will be high demand. However, we see also in several of the most popular streets that rents is bottoming out and have been stable at best for the past couple of years. Our market view is that the prime rents have remained quite stagnant during the course of the past year in the Oslo retail market. The highest prices are still found in Karl Johans Gate with recent contracts indicating a prime level of close to NOK 23 000 per sqm for the best retail space within this street. This is slightly down compared to previous levels of NOK 25 000 per sqm from a year ago. The drop in price is not dramatic, and we believe that we will see prime premises at Karl Johans gate let at NOK 25 000 per sqm within a not too distant future. The demand for these premises within these locations continues to remain strong. Furthermore, top locations in Oslo are gaining increasingly more attention from international retailers which are contributing to higher rental prices for landlords.

One factor which is contributing to high rents in certain areas is the influx of international brands and retailers in to the Norwegian market. In Oslo, the entrance of high end international brands has been especially noticeable and has in certain areas contributed to high rents. The vacancy rate in the retail sector is low for properties located within the central Oslo region. In the most popular streets such as Karl Johans gate with adjacent streets and Bogstadveien is experiencing close to 0 % vacancy. When there are vacant premises in these streets, it is usually down to frictional vacancy, the time from the previous tenant has vacated the premises until the new tenant is able to move in as most premises in these areas has a high demand for retail space. We believe that strong demand for prime high street locations in the larger cities in Norway generally, and Oslo specifically, will continue going forward. We see the same regarding centrally located shopping centres such as Oslo City and Sandvika and StrĂ¸mmen Storsenter. We are also experiencing the same with large shopping centres outside of the other larger cities in Norway. These, and a few other shopping centres has an extended cue of prospective tenants that wants to move into premises that are left vacant in these locations. For secondary shopping centres and smaller local centres, the situation is different. We are increasingly seeing that medium to small sized shopping centres will struggle to compete with larger shopping centres going forward. Consumers are increasingly favouring larger shopping centres which increasingly can attend to all consumer needs and is more and more regarding visiting shopping centres as â&#x20AC;&#x153;making a day out of itâ&#x20AC;? and as an experience. Consequently, the letting process is far more challenging for small and medium sized shopping centres and landlords would be wise to expect a void period in order to obtain tenants. We believe that smaller and medium sized shopping centres outside of city centres will experience turbulent times going forward.

Retail Market Report Norway

the macro market The growth in the Norwegian economy was in 2015 the weakest since the financial crisis at the end of the 90Â´s. In the later half of 2015 there was a slight decrease in the economy, while the growth in mainland Norway showed moderate growth in Q1 of 2016. The bulk of the growth was caused increased electricity production. If this factor is set aside, GDP for mainland Norway only increased by 0.1 % in Q1. The low growth is predominantly driven by reduced demand from the oil sector. The investments within the oil sector initially began to decrease towards the end of 2013 and the investments are reduced by close to 1/3 during the span of the last 2.5 years. The decrease in activity was initially caused by high expenses. This was however, significantly expanded by the drastic drop in the oil price from the summer of 2014 and onwards. Despite the drop in the oil prices and activity, the repercussions for the other parts of the Norwegian economy have been minor. A low NOK as well as low interest rates which have contributed to increased residential prices as well as to a relatively high household consumption is contributing to this factor as well as an expansive fiscal policy. This has however not been able to fully contradict the increase in unemployment, which is currently at 4.7 % as of July 2016. This figure is however expected do drop slightly towards the end of the year, stabilizing at around 4.5 % towards years end. It is expected that we will see a slightly improved economic growth going on in 2017. The current CPI numbers are very high with CPI data for both July and August showing very high growth. The CPI growth for the entire year is currently estimated at 3.4 % by Statistics Norway which is significantly higher compared to other Nordic and most European countries. For instance, in July of this year, the Swedish CPI rate was at 1.1 % while the Danish CPI rate was only at 0.5 %. The main drivers behind the increasing CPI rate in Norway are food and electricity prices. However, we experience that the increase is broad and is apparent in several sectors. The population increase in Norway continues. From 2016 to 2020 an increase of 5 % in the population is expected. The surprising CPI levels also contributes to that the base rate from the Bank of Norway has remained at 0.5 % for an extended period. Retail Market Report Norway

Retail Market Report Norway

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S G AT

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AT G

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Thorvald Meyersgate Markveien

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shopping centres oslo & akershus The shopping centre stock in Oslo & Akershus is approximately 2 million sqm and the figure is increasing quite fast. Compared to other Scandinavian cities, Norway has a considerably larger share of shopping centres compared to its’ A AI population than Denmark and Sweden. DuringTAthe DK S P LI past few years, a lot of new shopping centre F I stock has been developed in Norway and especially in the area around Oslo where we have seen several new shopping centres in the market, while others have expanded and redeveloped existing stock. Retail Market Report Norway

H E N R IK I BS E N S GAT E

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Karl Johansgate Øvre / Nedre Slottsgate Torggata Kvadraturen

T HARB

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DE N

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shopping streets oslo

key areas oslo

Hegdehaugsveien Bogstadveien

G AT

FR N

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Retail Market Report Norway

PE R

karl johans gate

nedre / øvre slottsgate / akersgata

Karl Johans gate is Norway's parade street and runs from the Central Station to the Royal Palace. In Karl Johans gate and surrounding streets you can find all the major chain stores, flagship stores and a wide range of luxury stores.

These streets are side streets to Karl Johans Gate. These streets have in recent years been transformed into the destination for high end and luxury shops in Oslo. Especially has the company Promenaden Management worked diligently towards transforming the area they have labeled “Promenaden” to be able to attract high profile and luxury retailers to the area.

Karl Johans Gate has the highest retail rents in the country and is an area where you find a large variety of shops. The best corner locations located in this street from Egertorget and westwards can be let for NOK around 25 000 per sqm for prime retail space (zone A). Due to the high rents, the stores present at Karl Johans Gate is not necessarily profitable, however, chains chose to locate to Karl Johan because they “have” to and use their store in this location as a show room and marketing tool.

The area has the highest density of luxury and high end shops in Norway and the density and actual numbers is steadily increasing. In recent years, brands such as Gucci, Hermès, Bottega Veneta and Burberry have located to the area and other entrants are rumoured to happen in this area in the coming years.

The upper part of Karl Johans gate has also in recent years undergone major transformations, Steen & Strøm Magazine has re-established itself as the leading fashion magazine, and along with fashion house Eger, this helps to create a more attractive center with a bustling urban environment constantly evolving

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10 - 15 000 nok/sqm/year

Retail Market Report Norway

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5 - 10 000

nok/sqm/year

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The largest landowners in the area seems increasingly conform to embrace this development and encourage luxury and high street shopping in the area in favour of lower scale retail establishments. The rent levels in the area has risen quite significantly during the past few years with the entrance of the luxury and high end shops.

15 - 20 000 nok/sqm/year

20 - 25 000 nok/sqm/year

Ka r

l Jo

han

ate

torggata

hegdehaugsveien / bogstadveien

Torggata has been completely revitalized during the past ten years. Initially, the half of the street closest to Stortorget and Karl Johans Gate was redeveloped initially and currently has a several large chain stores and broad, attractive cobblestone pavements and faĂ§ades.

The area of Hegdehaugsveien and Bogstadveien remain quite popular amongst retailers, however, are struggling to quite get back to the popularity in the years prior to the financial crisis. The pavement and tram lines in the street have been updated after a couple of years of redevelopment. For instance, the pavements now have under soil heating in an effort to make the street more attractive for prospective customers. Both Bogtstadveien and Hegdehaugsveien has a high density of large chain stores, the former more so than the latter which has close to exclusively large chains present while Hegdehaugsveien has a larger influx of more exclusive shops.

The street has been split by Youngstorget in the middle and the divide has been apparent when looking at the various tenants. While the western parts of the street had been revitalized, the eastern parts of the street up until recently were full of small serving shops, mainly kebab and hamburger stores as a few small local shops. At nights, shady activity was highly present. During the last couple of years, also this end of the street has been transformed with several of the most popular and hip restaurants and cafĂ¨s in Oslo as well as several small, new shops opening in the area. Most of the old kebab, hamburger and telephone repair shops have been replaced. Prime rent in Torggata is currently approximately NOK 10 000 per sqm â&#x20AC;&#x201C; a healthy increase compared to a few years ago.

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The prime rents in the area is rather stable, however, we are currently seeing some landlords struggling to recuperate their rent when the current contract expires. The current prime rents for Bogstadveien and Hegdehaugsveien is currently NOK 8 - 12 000 per sqm which it has been for the past few years despite the completion of the new pavements. New entrants in this area includes Oscar Jacobson, Sand, Superdry, Holzweiler, Houdini Sportswear & Eplehuset.

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6 - 8 000

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Retail Market Report Norway

markveien / thorvald meyersgate Thorvald Meyers Gate and Markveien are areas that have become increasingly popular in the past 10 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 15 years. A while ago this area was full of independent shops and diversity. We are now however starting to see a larger influx of larger chain stores such as The Varner Group. H&M opened their stores of COS and Weekday earlier this year as well. The gentrification in the area has been strong in recent years and rents has risen quite strongly and also dramatically for several of the smaller independent shops which are now being forced to vacate the area. The prime rents in Thorvald Meyers Gate and Markveien is currently around NOK 5 - 8 000 per sqm.

Markveien Thorvald Meyers gate

Retail Market Report Norway

Markveien

5 - 8 000

nok/sqm/year

grensen / akersgata

Retail Market Report Norway

footfall Historically, there have not been many measurements of footfall readily available in Norway and Oslo as a means of predicting retail performance. However, Gehl Architects conducted such a research back in 2014 which remains valid. Non-surprisingly, it showed that Karl Johans Gate has a very heavy footfall with the street being frequently visited nearly at all times. What is more, the street is most often visited in the summer with 42,7 % of total footfall, while the autumn accounted for 31.3 % and the winter the share of footfall had dropped to 26 %.

This is finely correlated with most centrally located shopping centres which reports of more traffic and turnover in autumn and winter months compared to the summer when there is much lower activity going on.

in the Kvadraturen area as of yet and this will need to change if there is any hope of a significant upturn for the retailers that is located here.

However, according to Gehl Architects the footfall rate at Kvadraturen is very limited, despite its´ very central location. Especially when it becomes dark there is very limited footfall.

Source: Gehl Architects

Saturday is also generally slightly better visited compared to Tuesdays with a 51.5 % share compared to Tuesdays 48.5 %. An area however which is frequently being mentioned as “the next big thing” in terms of the Oslo high street retail scene is Kvadraturen.

Retail Market Report Norway

karl johans gate and sorrundings

Retail Market Report Norway

best corner location karl johans gate / eger

Retail Market Report Norway

investments The retail investment market had a record rear last year due to several high profile portfolio transactions, such of the sale of Sector Holding, Promenaden and Salto Eiendom. These three transactions had a combined value of more than NOK 20 billion by themselves. After a record breaking year, the retail volume in 2015 was approximately NOK 40 billion on its own and is by far the all time high record, breaking the total transaction volume within commercial real estate in Norway in most years since 2000 on its´ own. It also provides one of the highest retail shares of the total volume of all time. The years 2012 and 2013 also accounted for a very high turnover of retail properties, also due to certain portfolio sales, while the volume was far less in 2014. What we have generally seen in the last few years, is that retail properties, especially shopping centres, has been quite often been sold as portfolios. High street properties in good locations rarely sell, and when they do, it is nearly always for a very low yield and high price. The demand is there, however, the supply is close to non-existent. Outside of Oslo City being sold towards the end of last year, prime shopping centres too are infrequently sold, due in part to the by far largest shopping centre company in Norway not selling shopping centre properties. In 2015 alone we had the 2nd and 3rd largest shopping centre chains in Norway change hands, one of the largest single standing shopping centres sold, in addition to the most attractive high street real estate portfolio in central Oslo being bought by foreign investors. It was indeed a “perfect storm” in the transaction market in 2015, especially within the retail sector. Unsurprisingly, 2016 is as of the middle of October, nowhere near these record levels as each one of these transactions are really rare, let alone all of these within the same year as we saw in 2015. However, there have been a few transactions. A recent closing of a large transaction was the purchase of Åsane Senter in Bergen where Olav Thon bought the shopping centre from Steen & Strøm and Storebrand Liv which is be the largest retail deal of the year thus far with a value of approximately NOK 2 bn. Including this transaction the total volume of 2016 YTD with a total retail property volume of in excess of NOK 6 bn, approximately 15 % of the total volume. We do expect this number to increase going forward and we are expecting an end total for 2016 close to NOK 10 billion in total transaction volume for the retail sector. The current market within this sector is very unbalanced. We see that the demand for retail property in Norway is very strong at the moment, however, is severely lacking in supply which subdues the transaction volume. This does place pressure on the yield levels which has now been steadily decreasing for several years in high street locations as well as shopping centres and big boxes. In addition to the strong Norwegian players, there is strong international interest for retail property in Norway as evidenced by recent purchases by CityCon, Axa and Meyer Bergman to name a few. The lack of supply will unfortunately continue to curb the transaction volume going forward, especially concerning the larger transactions. Al though the supply undoubtedly is strained, we see that the actual numbers of transactions remains on historically acceptable levels. The yields have within the retail sector, as in other asset classes, decreased quite considerably during the past two years. This has happened without any significant increase in rents and is predominantly driven by lack of alternative investments and historically low interest rates. Prime Yield levels 2016: High Street: 4 % Shopping centres: 4.25 % Big Box: 5.25 % Retail Market Report Norway

Retail Market Report Norway

shopping performance The shopping and shopping centre performance has actually faired decently in 2016. Of the top ten largest shopping centres in Norway, only one, Kvadrat in Sandnes has experienced a decrease in sales. As of July, the growth in shopping centre sales had been 2.5 % while adjusted for area changes according to Kvarud Analyse. Overall sales this year has performed quite well and there is an increase amongst most shopping centres. Only Kvadrat shopping centre in Sandnes amongst the top ten largest shopping centres has seen a deep in its sales performance. The consumer growth is according to estimations provided by DNB Markets expected to be 1.3 % for 2016. Statistics Norway estimates household consumption to be 1.9 % for he current year which in turn will only grow slightly to 2 % in 2017. This compares with a figure of 2.1 % in 2015. The Norwegian e-commerce market is currently booming. For 2016, a growth of more than 16 % is expected which in turn translates into NOK 90 billion. According to DIBS (payment solutions) the Norwegian e-commerce marked will have grown with 75 % in the recent five year. Retailing is responsible for approximately 1/3 of this. Norway has for several years been severely lagging compared with the rest of Europe regarding shopping online for grocery goods. With the recent success of companies such as Kolonial.no and marked.no as well as the traditional grocery chains now paying much more attention to this market, we believe this will be one of the sectors which will experience considerable growth going forward. According to DnB, every 10 Norwegian now shops online for food and the sector expects a turnover of close to NOK 3 bn in 2016. This translates into 2 % of the total turnover for groceries in Norway and this figure is expected to significantly increase. Retail Market Report Norway

shopping centres Norway is the country in Europe with the highest density of shopping centres compared to inhabitants. There is probably several reasons behind this fact, however, the principal reason mentioned if more often than not the weather. All across Norway, there are small, medium and large sized shopping centres and even some of the largest shopping centres in Sweden are predominantly visited by Norwegians as they are strategically placed a long the Swedish / Norwegian boarder. The total stock of shopping centres (larger than 5 000sqm) within the Greater Oslo region is approximately 2 million sqm and quite a few have been constructed or revitalized in the past ten years. Additionally, Steen & Strøm is curently building what will become one of the largest shopping centres in the region at Økern within the city limits of Oslo. Despite all this, there is a legislative from 2008 that was made in order to impede too rapid development of shopping centres and which states that shopping centres can only be built only on land already pre approved zoned for such purpose within the county plan. One incentive to behind this is that according to The Norwegian Institute of Transport Economics, several shopping centres in Norway outside of the large city centres has a share of transportation at as much as 95 %. In more densely populated areas, the car share of transportation is as low as 20 %. We do expect that small and medium sized shopping centres will increasingly face difficulty going forward. Large shopping centres are increasingly providing additional services such as restaurants, cinemas, games and even swimming pools. People are increasingly viewing going shopping as an experience, which, despite all our shopping centres, has taken us Norwegians quite some time compared to many other countries. We do expect that several tenants will struggle in smaller shopping centres.

Norway´s 20 largest shopping centres RANK

SHOPPING CENTRE

PLACE

1 - 3Q 2016

GROSS TURNOVER I. 3Q 2016

I. - 3Q 2015

Change in %

Sandvika Storsenter

Sandvika

2195

2177

0,8

Lagunen Storsenter

Bergen

2151

2160

-0,4

Strømmen Storsenter

Strømmen

2112

2022

4,4

AMFI Moa

Ålesund

1958

1897

3,2

Sørlandssenteret

Kristiansand

1681

1634

2,9

Storo Storsenter

Oslo

1560

1505

3,7

Alna Senter

Oslo

1469

1417

3,7

CC Vest

Oslo

1461

1451

0,7

Kvadrat

Sandnes

1458

1543

-5,5

Ski Storsenter

Ski

1375

0,0

Oslo City

Oslo

1361

1272

7,0

Sartor Storsenter

Straume

1356

1248

8,6

City Nord

Bodø

1330

988

34,7

City Lade

Trondheim

1323

1259

5,1

City Syd

Trondheim

1282

1267

1,2

Jekta Storsenter

Tromsø

1271

1190

6,8

Jessheim Storsenter

Jessheim

1235

1219

1,3

Aker Brygge

Oslo

1182

1048

12,8

Gulskogen Senter

Drammen

1110

1045

6,3

Vestkanten Storsenter

Bergen

1106

1084

2,1

Retail Market Report Norway

food & beverage Who will become the winners in Food & Beverage? The retail industry including the Food & Beverage sector is looking at large changes and that is why we ask: What will be the characteristics of successful players within the F&B sector going forward? To answer this question, we need to understand what is happening today within the sector. To begin with, it is a fact that an increasingly larger portion of people are having meals outside of their homes. Consumers are increasingly “pasturing”. In other words, we are eating where food is available in an instant, because we are hungry, or just because we wanted something. Impulse at the “here and now notion” is increasingly controlling consumers. Boxed lunches is in the process is dying out. The time factor is decisive, depending on the situation. Secondly, dining out can increasingly be linked to “an experience”. This has been the case for some while, however, it is steadily becoming more and more apparent. Landslords are to an increasing extent a focus on dining in order to attract more customers and create social places for people to meet in order to increase contentment in the area. That quality of foods is important is common knowledge. It is a trend that consumers desires authentic food which is healthy, while also feels as though it was home made. Crossover kitchens are here to stay. In other words, various foods from different countries which are combined into the courses. Continued refreshing of the menus are therefore important. It could become a challenge to maintain a healthy profit for the restaurants due to several reasons. Increased demands from the authorities leads to additional construction costs. Rents are high in addition to the need of large investments in ventilation and demands. The consequence is that the establishment has to have a high turnover. We are likely to see a further tendency that only the largest chains which will have the economical capability to establish themselves in the most attractive areas with high rents. Independent establishments will continue to be innovative and locate themselves to areas with lower rents. Dining will continue to increase for several reasons. Consumers saves time, a lack of food related knowledge at home, experiences which you can not experience online, a healthy economy and a social place to meet. The consumers are online. They gather information on the web and seek out recommendations and ratings. Good ratings and recommendations on places such as TripAdvisor and Yelp are becoming increasingly vital for the consumer. Shops and dining experiences are “live”. One mistake is likely to be shared which may turn in to a catastrophic turnover. Food & Beverage establishments which are likely to succeeed in the future will be recognized by: • • • • • • • • •

A proper location will become even more vital The “right” neighbours Two way communication with their guests through social media Visibility online Best regarding services (read: building relations) Create authentic experiences Open to change Able to renew themselves Quality of foods Retail Market Report Norway

Retail Market Report Norway

data & figures Sources: Bank of Norway Colliers International AS Gehl Architects Statistics Norway

Retail Market Report Norway

The macro market CPI growth

The macro market GDP growth

The macro market Base rate prediction

The macro market Sales volume Index

Retail Market Report Norway

The macro market Unemployment

The macro market Household Consumption

Investment Historical Yield levels

Investment Historical Retail transaction volumes

Retail Market Report Norway

about colliers international Colliers International Group Inc. (NASDAQ: CIGI; TSX: CIG) is an industry leading global real estate services company with more than 16,000 skilled professionals operating in 66 countries. With an enterprising culture and significant employee ownership, Colliers professionals provide a full range of services to real estate occupiers, owners and investors worldwide. Services include strategic advice and execution for property sales, leasing and finance; global corporate solutions; property, facility and project management; workplace solutions; appraisal, valuation and tax consulting; customized research; and thought leadership consulting. For the latest news from Colliers Norway; colliers.com/no or follow us on Twitter (@ColliersNorway) and LinkedIn (Colliers International Norway).

retail contact norway haakon reed-larsen head of retail haakon.reed-larsen@colliers.com 0047 48 29 98 34 jĂ¸rn andersen senior advisor food & beverage jorn.andersen@colliers.com 0047 93 46 97 29 kari gro herrem senior advisor retail karigro.herrem@colliers.com 0047 91 38 19 50

Retail Market Report Norway

Copyright ÂŠ 2016 Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report. Images used in this report: Istock, Colliers & Nyebilder.no colliers.com/no

Retail Market Report Norway