Columbia Political Review vol 15 - Winter 2016

CPR

VOL. XV NO. 4

COLUMBIA POLITICAL REVIEW PLUS INSIDE: Democracy Dispatch……………p10 Bridging the Strait…………….p14 The Hunt for Red November….p18

HOW ENVIRONMENTALISTS STOPPED KEYSTONE BUT IGNORED AN OIL REVOLUTION

READ MORE AT CPREVIEW.ORG

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Editor’s Note

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VOLUME XV, NO. 4

MASTHEAD: Editor-in-Chief Publisher Managing Editors

DAVID BLACKMAN BRIAN CHUNG ASHA BANERJEE SOPHIE WILKOWSKE

Web Editor

MENGZHOU JIANG

Senior Editors

NORA BAILIN AMANDA KAM YEYE KYSAR OMEED MAGHZIAN ANTONIA MILLER ANDREW PASQUIER SHAMBHAVI TIWARI AMAR ZAIDI

Design Editors

ADAM RESHEFF THERESA YANG

Copy Chief

SOFI SINOZICH

Assistant Copy Editors

DOMINIQUE JONES PETER KALICKI BECCA ARBACHER

Artists: David Blackman Michelle Huang

(Cover) (pp 13, 16, 27)

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Media Review

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%RRN 5HYLHZ Burmaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Spring: Real Lives in Turbulent Times E\ 5 5XVVHOO

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Democracy Dispatch $ /RRN DW (XURSHDQ 3ROLWLFDO 3KLORVRSKLHV

The Hunt for Red November ([SODLQLQJ 5HSXEOLFDQ 6XFFHVVHV $W WKH 6WDWH /HYHO

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Bridging the Strait 2SWLPLVP IRU 7DLZDQÂśV 8QFHUWDLQ )XWXUH

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columbia political review :: winter 2016

media review

Myers, B.R. North Koreaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Juche Myth. Busan: Sthele, 2015. ($22.95)

Review by Cory Fitz

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columbia political review :: winter 2016

cover story

Pipe Dream How Environmentalists Stopped Keystone but Ignored an Oil Revolution

By Jameson McBride

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“Only seven years after its proposal, Keystone had become virtually moot, thanks to a seismic shift in the world energy economy brought on by fracking.”

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columbia political review :: winter 2016

Democracy Dispatch A Look at European Political Philosophies

Europe stands at a political crossroads. The European Union is threatened with dismemberment on multiple fronts, with a ďŹ scal crisis on the one hand and the spreading of reactionary conservatism that chooses isolationist nationalism over multinational cooperation on the other. A migrant crisis of refugees from a war-torn Syria exacerbates the potential for destabilizing European politics. At this moment of f lux, CPR presents two looks at different aspects of Europeâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s political past and future: Charlotte Lepic presents a reminder of the EU as a force for lasting peace, while Alexis Marin analyzes the Swiss direct democracy in the growing popularity of far-right ideology.

-CPR

When Europe Stops Remembering: Union, Exit, and European Peace

By Charlotte Lepic â&#x20AC;&#x153;World peace cannot be safe- QR <HW ZKHQ ZH WDON DERXW WKH (Xguarded without the making of creDWLYH HĚ&#x2020;RUWV SURSRUWLRQDWH WR WKH URSHDQ 8QLRQ WRGD\ ZH E\SDVV WKLV TXHVWLRQ <HW WKH SULPDU\ JRDO RI dangers which threaten it.â&#x20AC;?

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Charlotte Lepic is a Columbia College junior with a double major in History and Economics. She holds that history cannot be used to predict the future, but that it must be studied to understand the present. As a French citizen, UK resident, and tentative German speaker, she firmly believes in the European project, and can be reached at: cfl2123@columbia.edu

Switzerland’s Holes: An Undecided Population in a Far Right Climate

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features

columbia political review :: winter 2016

Bridging the Strait Optimism for Taiwan’s Uncertain Future

By Alfred Tsai

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“Taiwan could not have asked for a summit under more favorable terms of parity and dignity.”

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“The leadership in Beijing will have to adapt to shifting public opinion and demographics in Taiwan and decide whether additional concessions are necessary to pursue meaningful relations with the DPP, most members of which continue to back an anti-China stance.”

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Alfred Tsai is a junior in Columbia College majoring in economics and political science. He will be taking time away from Columbia’s Morningside Campus to visit National Taiwan University beginning in the fall semester of 2016. He can be reached at: aet2142@columbia.edu.

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columbia political review :: winter 2016

The Hunt For Red November Explaining Republican Successes at the State Level

espite the usual fl ak from conservative news media, the Democratic Party is starting to find reasons to celebrate.

Barack Obama is running a victory lap of sorts as his second term approaches an end, and the party a good D chance of retaining the White House after President Obama leaves office. On the other side of the party line, the cir-

cus of conservative candidates vying for the presidency is led by a neurosurgeon who is quickly showing that medical acumen does not necessarily translate into political savvy. An egotistical and ignorant reality TV star follows close behind, nipping at his heels. Within the current administration, a fractured Republican Party just barely convinced one of its members to ascend to the empty House Speakership. With such dysfunction in the Republican ranks catching the national eye, what can the Democrats possibly have to worry about? Though a Republican implosion appears more likely to the general American public, Democrats are largely ignoring the state-level coup that will have far-reaching implications for the future of the American body politic.

The Democrats might have their eyes on the White House – undeniably a supremely important political prize – but examining the rest of the federal and state systems, the prospects look bleak for the party’s control over the remainder of the American government. Congress has been controlled by Republican majorities in both houses since 2010, and considering the trend of midterm elections, it is likely Republicans will continue to occupy Congress with force even if a Democratic candidate ascends to the presidency in 2016.

If you think the idea of a Democratic president with an increasingly divided government is daunting, the news only gets worse for Democrats at the state level. As of the most recent round of gubernatorial elections in 2015, 31 Republican governors preside over state governments. Of these, 24 governors enjoy a full majority of Republican legislators in both houses of their respective state legislatures. The remaining 19 governors of the United States are either Democrat or independent, but only six Democratic governors have the privilege of serving their states alongside a fully Democratic state legislature. The remaining Democratic governors must battle, like Obama has, against legislatures hostile to liberal ideals. When the governor and both houses of a state legislature are controlled by the same party, we use the term “trifecta,” and it is clear that the Republican party, despite their national level debacle, are enjoying a significant margin of control in state governments, holding 24 trifectas to the Democrats’ six.

The underlying foundation of political organization lies in jurisprudence, and to discount the future of the Democrats without considering the political leanings of state and national judiciaries would be remiss. But even factoring in judiciaries, the situation does not look any better for the Democrats. The term “trifecta plus” describes a state with a trifecta and a working majority of a state’s high court that tends to rule along the lines of the trifecta party. A 2014 analysis by the Democratic Judicial Campaign Committee found 22 states where a court could definitively be determined as leaning liberal or conservative. Combining this analysis with the trifecta states, there are only four Democratic trifecta plus states to the Republicans’ nine.

As Republicans consolidate their control over state legislatures, they continue to gerrymander congressional districts to convert their state power into national electoral success. Republicans at the state level also are pursuing policies to curb voting rights and skew electoral demographics towards their voting base. Democrats at the local level have counted on minority voters and organized labor to serve as the spine of Democratic state government, but the waning of union strength due to hostile “right-to-work” laws and hard stances on immigration and path to citizenship initiatives are phasing out some Democratic foot soldiers in the battle for votes.

One of the Democrats’ only hopes to gain a robust majority in all levels of American government is the Supreme Court, which makes winning the White House in 2016 all the more important. When the next president takes office in January 2017, conservative justices like Antonin Scalia and Anthony Kennedy will be 80 years old – both justices represent the strong conservative faction of a Court that has shattered union rights and struck down parts of the 1965 Voting Rights Act. On the other hand, however, defenders of liberal jurisprudence like Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Stephen Breyer could be replaced by conservative judges under a Republican president, which would only spell further doom for the power of the Democrats.

-Ankeet Ball

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columbia political review :: winter 2016

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Interview WITH PROF. JUSTIN PHILLIPS JUSTIN PHILLIPS IS A PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AT COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY AND A FELLOW AT THE APPLIED STATISTICS CENTER AND THE INSTITUTE FOR SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH. HIS RESEARCH FOCUSES PRIMARILY ON STATE- AND LOCAL-LEVEL POLITICS AND THEIR RESPONSIVENESS TO PUBLIC OPINION AND VOTER PREFERENCE, WITH SPECIAL EMPHASIS ON THE EFFECT OF INSTITUTIONS, POLARIZATION, AND SPECIAL INTERESTS ON THAT RESPONSIVENESS. PROF. PHILLIPS’ PUBLISHED ARTICLES ARE NUMEROUS, AND HAVE APPEARED IN SUCH PUBLICATIONS AS THE AMERICAN JOURNAL OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, THE AMERICAN POLITICAL SCIENCE REVIEW, AND THE JOURNAL OF POLITICS, AMONG OTHERS. HE ALSO CO-AUTHORED THE POWER OF AMERICAN GOVERNORS WITH THAD KOUSSER, A BOOK WHICH WAS AWARDED THE 2014 VIRGINIA GREY BEST BOOK AWARD, STATE POLITICS AND POLICY SECTION, BY THE AMERICAN POLITICAL SCIENCE ASSOCIATION. PROF. PHILLIPS HOLDS A B.A. IN ECONOMICS FROM LEWIS AND CLARK COLLEGE, AND A PH.D. IN POLITICAL SCIENCE FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA AT SAN DIEGO. CPR: There is a narrative, given the state of the Republican primary right now, of a [Republican] Party that is rudderless, that has no direction, that is in disarray and going to blunder its way through to the general election: Do you think that this is a fair narrative, or is it overblown?

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WKH *23 FRXOG EH D SDUW\ LQ GLVDUUD\ D SDUW\ DERXW WR PDNH D WHUULEOH >5HSXEOLFDQ 3UHVLGHQWLDO 1RPLQHH %DUU\@ *ROGZDWHU W\SH GHFLVLRQ RU PD\EH QRW EHFDXVH XVXDOO\ SDUWLHV GR QRW QRPLQDWH VXUH ORVHUV %XW WKH 5HSXEOLFDQV PLJKW WKLV WLPH 7UXWKIXOO\ LW LV MXVW WRR HDUO\ WR WHOO , UHPDLQ IDLUO\ VNHSWLFDO CPR: In stark contrast to that narrative there has obviously been a huge resurgance of the Republican 19

briefings Party at a state level following the sort of Democratic high-water mark of 2008. So what are some of the most important factors to consider in explaining that success?

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columbia political review :: winter 2016 VXGGHQO\ UHJDLQ FRQWURO RI D ORW RI VWDWH OHJLVODWXUHV DQG JRYHUQRUVKLSV EHFDXVH 5HSXEOLFDQV ZRXOG SUREDEO\ GR YHU\ SRRUO\ DFURVV WKH ERDUG %XW D QHZ FHQVXV E\ LWVHOI MXVW GRHV QRW PHDQ PXFK XQOHVV \RX DOUHDG\ KDYH WKH PDMRULW\ WR WDNH DGYDQWDJH RI LW DQG UHGUDZ WKH GLVWULFWV , PHDQ UHDOO\ WKLV LV MXVW WKH SULFH \RX SD\ ZKHQ \RXU SDUW\ FRQWUROV WKH SUHVLGHQF\ :KHQ \RX WKLQN EDFN WR WKH PLGWHUP HOHFWLRQV ZKHQ 5HSXEOLFDQV MXVW ORVW FRQWURO RI DOO VRUWV RI ṘFHV DW WKH VWDWH DQG QDWLRQDO OHYHO²WKH\ ORVW FRQWURO RI &RQJUHVV WKH\ ORVW ORWV RI JRYHUQRUVKLSV WKH\ ORVW ORWV RI VWDWH OHJLVODWXUHV²VR LW LV SUREDEO\ JRLQJ WR EH YHU\ WRXJK IRU 'HPRFUDWV WR UHFRYHU DW WKH VWDWH DQG ORFDO OHYHO XQOHVV +LOODU\ ZLQV E\ VRPH ODQGVOLGH LQ CPR: So there is this fear on the left and pipe dream on the right that the number of solidly red state governments is inching very close to about 38, at which point there could be constitutional amendment by calling conventions in three quarters of the states. Do you think that this is at all reasonable or likely?

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matter what that there is an electoral backlash?

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AT A GLANCE: Causes of Republican Success 1) Surge and Decline, exacerbated by Obamaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s polarizing election.

2) Democratic base not prone to voting in midterm elections as a matter of demographics

3) Relaxed campaign ďŹ nance regulations and increased spending -3 :HOO WKH\ DUH KXJH :KHUH on state elections

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4) Census year allowed widespread gerrymandering after the 2010 GOP victory

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columbia 2015 columbiapolitical politicalreview review:: ::summer winter 2016

Election Rejection The Bihar Elections as a Referendum on Modi

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“Despite large sample sizes that were carefully distributed by caste, class, and religion, no pollster came close to gauging the mood of the electorate, a telling sign of a rapidly changing political climate in India that is today impossible to quantify in terms of mere identity politics.”

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summer2016 2015 columbia political review :: winter

cover story features

UNderserved Refugees Systemic Failures of the UNHCR in Kenya

By Edna Simbi

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“The UNHCR has become a co-conspirator in perpetuating Somali refugee rights violations in Kenya.”

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Edna Simbi is a dual degree major, studying Political Science at Columbia University, School of General Studies and pursuing a Masters degree in International Security Policy at Columbia School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA). She is an aspiring diplomat. She can be reached at: es3325@columbia.edu 27

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