Climate change turns out to be good news for Tasmania’s North West dairy industry When Cradle Coast NRM’s Dr Ernst Kemmerer started running climate change simulations for the north-west area, he wasn’t expecting to find some good news for pasture production. In a joint project with UTAS a regional map of pasture production was developed using climate information from Climate Futures Tasmania. Over 300 simulations across various drainage classes and soil types were run from present year until the year 2100. The results show that pastures are predicted to have an increase in spring growth of around 30% due to warmer temperatures. However, this will be offset by more variable rainfall combined with overall lower pasture production in summer and autumn by around 20%. Essentially, the North West will have bigger spring flushes of growth in paddocks. Farmers may be able to take advantage of this for their hay cuts. On the flip side, the summer and autumn months will be drier, leading to significantly reduced growth compared to today’s levels. Dr Richard Rawnsley from the Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture at the University of Tasmania said, ‘This may mean farmers will need to consider options to best utilise this surplus feed through varying calving dates, strategic use of nitrogen fertiliser in winter and early spring, advanced conservation of surplus feed and feed budgeting. ‘Summer feed deficits are likely to become more pronounced due to high temperature, greater evaporation and increasing variability in summer rainfall. This will lead to an increasing reliance on irrigation, use of summer forage crops and strategic feed planning,’ said Dr Rawnsley. Managing variability in pasture production under future climate change will be a challenge to producers in the region, with the larger producers such as VDL Company taking
a keen interest in the spatial models developed to assist in improved farm planning. Considering that the dairy industry is the highest grossing agricultural industry in the region and accounts for around 60% of Tasmania’s milk production, this modelling work is generally good news for the region and the state, despite the usual contingency planning needed for summer and early autumn. Dr Kemmerer worked on this joint project with David Phelan, Dr David Parsons and Dr Richard Rawnsley from the University of Tasmania. The project, Planning for climate change: spatial interpolation of pasture yields was funded by the Australian Government to evaluate the spatial and temporal variation in pasture productivity under climate change. A number of sophisticated software programs were used to show pasture production as a map through time. ‘We wanted to apply this technology in a practical way to see how it might affect farmers in the north-west,’ said Ernst. ‘The models provided new insights into the role of orographic and maritime influences on pasture growth in the region’. To see an interactive display of the predictions developed in this work, you can visit http:// www.cradlecoastnrm.com/our-work-climatechange and follow the links. This will show baseline spring, autumn and summer changes through until 2100.
www.cradlecoastnrm.com
This publication is supported by Cradle Coast NRM, through funding from the Australian Government