Perspectivas internacionales de sustituibilidad Voz fija y movil

Sustituci贸n Fijo M贸vil W. Swain 15 June 2012

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Agenda     

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Big Themes General Framework Trends in Fixed Voice Trends in Mobile Voice Conclusions

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Mobile Internet projected to exceed 10 billion units/devices by 2016 Opportunity  Yankee Group predicts that the total mobile service market (line subscriptions) will exceed $1 trillion by 2014

Desktop Internet 1 Billion+ Units/Devices

PC 100 Million+ Units

New Mobile Economy Page 3

 Yankee Group forecasts that the mobile connected devices market (phones, tablets and e-readers) will exceed $435 billion by 2014  Yankee Group predicts that revenues from mobile apps, cloud and advertizing will grow to $340 billion by 2014  Yankee Group forecasts the growth in the value of mobile transactions worldwide © Copyright 2012 will increase to $984 billion by 2014

Text to Speech to Video

Increasing Bandwidth

Communication modes do not disappear but costs are transformed by technology and prices fall towards costs

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One-to-One To Many-to-Many Shared Personal Experiences

As many Hispanic Smartphone Users Connect to Social Networks EVERY DAY as Make Voice Calls (58%) Source: Yankee Group U.S. Consumer Survey, 2011, 2012 Hispanic Respondents Only Page 5

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Defined Place to Any Place

Where Did You Use The Internet In The Last Month (Ranked 1, 2,3) Home

90%

Work

45%

School

27%

Out and about

18%

Private transportation

16%

Public buildings

13%

Internet Café

13%

Hotels

5%

Airports

3%

Other

2%

Public transportation

2% 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Source: Yankee Group U.S. Consumer Survey, 2011 Hispanic Smartphone Respondents Only Page 6

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Defined Place to Any Place

Smartphone Growth Driven by The Interaction of These Two Forces

1-to-1 to Shared Personal Experiences

For many Latin Americans, a smartphone is their first personal internet device Page 7

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General Framework

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Source: Yankee Group ConnectedView Mar 2012

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General Framework

United States 120.000,0 100.000,0 80.000,0 60.000,0 40.000,0 20.000,0 0,0

2003

2004

2005

2006

Consumer Telephony Access Revenue

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Source: Yankee Group ConnectedView Mar 2012

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Consumer Mobile Service Revenue

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General Framework

United States Year over Year Growth in Minutes 30,0%

25,0% 20,0% 15,0% 10,0% 5,0% 0,0% -5,0%

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

-10,0% -15,0% -20,0% Interstate Switched Access Minutes of Use Page 10

Source: FCC, Yankee Group ConnectedView, Yankee Group Mobile Carrier Monitor Mar 2012

Carrier Minutes of Use Š Copyright 2012

General Framework – Minutes Are Harder To See The Crossing Point – May Not Have Come France Fixed and Mobile Minutes

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Source: ARCEP Annual Report for Year 2010

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General Framework – Minutes Are Harder To See Crossing Point – Inconsistent Data France Fixed, Mobile and VOIP Minutes per EUROSTAT 140000000

120000000

100000000

80000000 Cellular mobile calls National calls (local + long distance)

60000000

VoIP calls 40000000

20000000

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Source: DataMarket.com June 2012

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

0

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General Framework – Why Do The Curves Cross?    

Mobile Lines Are Personal – Fixed Lines Are Shared “I want to call YOU, not your house/family/office” Prepaid Mobile Opens New Socio-Economic Sectors Calling-Party-Pays PLUS Prepaid Opens The Market Even Further  Mobile ARPUs Tend To Decline As Penetration Increases Whereas Fixed Voice ARPU Nearly Flat  Delays Revenue Crossing Point

 Mobile Voice Minutes More Expensive Than Fixed Voice  Delays Minutes Crossing Point

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Global Trends in Fixed Voice – Some Growth, Especially in Emerging Markets But …

Consumer Fixed Telephony Lines (M) 1.200

1.000

917

937

952

970

960

965

953

961

971

981

991

1.000

1.010

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

866 800

600

Consumer Traditional (i.e. Telco) Lines Decreasing, Replaced by VOIP over Broadband

400

200

0 2003

2004

2005

2006

Consumer Traditional Voice Page 14

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Consumer Non-Traditional Voice

Source: Yankee Group ConnectedView Mar 2012

Consumer Voice Fixed Lines © Copyright 2012

Global Trends in Fixed Voice Global Consumer Fixed Voice Revenue (USD M) 300,0 271,0

277,9 262,7

250,0

256,4 250,3 251,6

243,0

234,7 231,0 227,3 222,9 218,7 215,3 212,3

200,0

150,0

With Broadband Voice Given Away (Bundled) or Priced Low and VOIP Rates << Traditional, Voice Revenues Fall Despite Growth in Lines

100,0

50,0

-

2003 Page 15

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Source: Yankee Group ConnectedView Mar 2012

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

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2016

Cord Cutting – US Attitude Survey US Cord Cutting Attitudes 1Q12 80% 70%

My Primary Phone Is Mobile

Percent of Respondents

60% 50% 40%

My Primary Phone Will Never Be Mobile

30% 20% 10% 0% 18-19

20-24

25-34

35-44

45-54

55-64

65+

Age Group Page 16

Source: Yankee Group US Consumer Survey Mar 2012

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Cord Cutting â&#x20AC;&#x201C; US Attitude Survey When Will You Replace Your Primary Fixed Phone With A Mobile Phone?

It will never be replaced by a mobile phone

39%

It will be replaced with a mobile phone when I get a new bundle that does not include home phone service

4%

It will be replaced with a mobile phone the next time I move

3%

It will be replaced with a mobile phone within the next year

3%

It will be replaced with a mobile phone within the next three months

2%

5%+ intention to "Cut the Cord" w/in 1 year is consistent with 5.8% decline we see/forecast

It is a mobile phone

43%

0% Page 17

Source: Yankee Group US Consumer Survey Mar 2012

5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Š Copyright 2012

Cord Cutting – As Reported by FCC – A More Restricted Definition Fixed Mobile Substitution

25%

21% 20%

18% 16% 15%

15% 12% 10%

13% Adults with Wireless Service Only

10%

Adults with No Telephone Service 5% 1,8%

1,7%

1,6%

1,9%

2,1%

1,7%

1,5%

Jan - Jun 2006

Jul-Dec 2006

Jan - Jun 2007

Jul-Dec 2007

Jan-Jun 2008

Jul-Dec 2008

Jan-Jun 2009

0%

Source: Wireless Substitution: Early Release of Estimates From The Data from the National Health Interview Survey, January – June 2009).

As Reported in FCC 15th Annual Report on Mobile Wireless Competition (2011) Page 18

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Global Trends in Mobile Voice Global Consumer Mobile Voice Lines (M) 7.000

6.000 5.422

5.659

5.837

5.976

6.038

5.102 5.000

4.574 3.962

4.000 3.456 2.884

3.000 2.341

Reaching saturation for Voice Lines. Further Mobile Growth will come from M2M and Mobile Broadband

1.889

2.000 1.509 1.206 1.000

2003 Page 19

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Source: Yankee Group ConnectedView Mar 2012

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

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2016

Global Trends in Mobile Voice Consumer Mobile Voice Revenue (USD B) 600,0

491,5

500,0

458,9

458,5

452,7

469,3

461,3

444,8

428,3

405,6 400,0

414,5

401,2

370,1

339,9 300,0

282,4

Voice ARPUs continue to fall due to Regulatory and Competitive Action so Voice Revenues continue to fall as well

200,0

100,0

2003 Page 20

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Source: Yankee Group ConnectedView Mar 2012

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

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2016

Voice ARPUs Fall “Sin Piso” (Except ZERO) Real Voice ARPU (Seasonal Smooth) Indexed to 4Q07 1,20

1,00 Movistar COL (Telefonica) Entel CHI Movistar CHI (Telefonica)

0,80

Personal ARG Movistar ARG (Telefonica)

Oi BRA

0,60

TIM BRA

Vivo BRA (Telefonica) Movistar MEX (Telefonica) 0,40

Movistar PER (Telefonica) Movistar VEN (Telefonica) Movistar ECU (Telefonica)

0,20

Telcel MEX (America Movil)

4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 Page 21

Source: Yankee Group Mobile Carrier Monitor Mar 2012

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Voice ARPUs Are Not Falling Because of Decreased Usage MOU = Average Voice Minutes of Use Per Month 250,00

The issue is ARPM (Average Revenue Per Minute) not OTT competition or Penetration Growth leading to Marginal Users or Growth in 2nd Lines

Comcel COL (AMX) Movistar COL (Telefonica) 200,00

Entel CHI Claro CHI (AMX)

Movistar CHI (Telefonica) Personal ARG 150,00

Movistar ARG (Telefonica) Claro ARG (AMX) TIM BRA

100,00

Vivo BRA (Telefonica) Claro BRA (AMX)

Telcel MEX (AMX) Movistar MEX (Telefonica) 50,00

Claro PER (AMX) Movistar PER (Telefonica) Movistar VEN (Telefonica) Claro ECU (AMX)

-

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Source: Yankee Group Mobile Carrier Monitor Mar 2012

Movistar ECU (Telefonica)

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Conclusions  Societal trends favor personal devices i.e. Mobile  Mobile is accessible to a broader base of society  2-5% of existing Fixed line customers “cut the cord” every year  Only bundling of Fixed Voice with Fixed Broadband prevents this from happening faster  Fixed Voice Revenues will continue to fall because of VOIP and migration to Mobile  Mobile Voice Revenues will continue to fall because of Regulatory and Competitive Action Page 23

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¡Gracias! ¿Preguntas?

W. Swain Managing Partner, C3 Comunicaciones SAS SVP Emerging Markets, Yankee Group wswain@yankeegroup.com wswainla@gmail.com www.MacondoTelecom.net @WSYGLA

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