Min vej hjem 2020
Introduktion til fremtidsscenarier
Min vej hjem Scenarier for fremtidens samfund
Experimentation by Design (EXBD) er Dansk Design Centers projekt for udvikling af scenarier for fremtidens samfund. Projektet består af fire spekulative fremtidsscenarier, der hver især sætter forskellige nutidige trends på spidsen og beskriver et samfund som på samme tid er anderledes og genkendeligt. Hvert scenarie er sit eget univers og har sit eget sanselige udtryk. I det vedlagte materiale finder du en introduktion til hver af de fire fremtider i en kondenseret udgave. Hvert scenarie bliver beskrevet gennem: • • • •
En En En Et
kort introduktion til baggrunden for projektet kort beskrivelse af scenariet introduktionsfortælling, der placerer dig i verden eksempel på en historie fra en borger i scenariet
Scenarierne bygger på en 2x2 matrix: Et koordinatsystem med to dimensioner, som er en populær metode til at designe fremtidsscenarier. Akserne repræsenterer usikkerheder omkring fremtiden. Hver akse er et spørgsmål, som vi ikke kender svaret på. Hvis man fx er interesseret i scenarier baseret på vejret i morgen, kunne spørgsmålene være: Bliver det koldt eller varmt, og bliver det regnvejr eller solskin? Alt efter hvad svaret bliver på hvert spørgsmål får man fire mulige fremtidsscenarier: 1. Koldt 2. Varmt 3. Koldt 4. Varmt
og og og og
solskin solskin regnvejr regnvejr
Det er denne metode, der ligger til grund for projektet. Det er dog blot nogle andre spørgsmål: • Hvad driver samfundet fremad? (Markedets- eller samfundets behov?) • Hvordan er vi organiseret? (Solidt og centralt eller fleksibelt og distribueret?) Det vedlagte materiale er en slags smagsprøve. Scenarierne består i sin helhed af flere materialer, hvoraf fiktive førstehåndsberetninger er et af grundelementerne. Udover fortællinger består projektet af tematiske analyser, der undersøger hvordan vi arbejder, lever, trives, bevæger os og producerer i fremtiderne, visuelle universer og lydspor. Scenarierne er blevet til på baggrund af en stor konference i januar 2020, hvor mere end 130 eksperter, designere og beslutningstagere fra hele verden over en dag deltog i en stor co-creation session. Projektet er et samarbejde med bl.a. Industriens Fond, Udviklings- og Forenklingsstyrelsen og Erhvervsstyrelsen.
Sol 1
2
Koldt
Varmt 3
4 Regn
Introducing the scenario kit
Experimentation by Design Scenarios 2050
The ultimate, hidden thuth of the world is that it is something we make and could just as easily make differently David
– Wolf Graeber
Through the involvement of 130 experts, leaders, and creatives at a conference in January 2020, Experimentation by Design, we have got hold of insights and knowledge of a new way of addressing the uncertainty and make clear decisions for a future strategy: Scenario design. In a world where radical changes in climate, economy, and geopolitics happen weekly, it can be challenging, if not impossible, to plan the future. Scenario design does not predict the future; it is a tool to establish and explore multiple, plausible, and thought-provoking scenarios that we can relate to, intellectually, emotionally, and empathetically.
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The matrix
The scenario matrix is the backbone of the scenarios. It has two axes representing two important uncertainties about the future. There are other important questions that could be used aswell but the two that make up the matrix are the ones that we found to be the most applicable to various different issues, sectors, and industries.
X Axis: What drives value creation? Is value-creation driven by the needs and powers of the market or of society in general?
Y Axis: how are we organised? Do we depend on robust centralised structures or agile distributed networks?
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Market-driven
Centralised
Market-driven Centralised Alpha
7
Market-driven
Centralised
Alpha
The market thinks. Everything is deliberate.
Businesses have developed minds of their own. Large tech companies have grown into huge AI-powered behemoths that feed on the data of their comprehensive eco-systems. People are offered hyper-personalised services and products within the walled gardens of large corporations — often referred to as networks. Networks can provide everything from housing and healthcare to entertainment and insurance but everything comes with a price and plans and premiums vary. You can seek out other networks but most people are simply born into one — not unlike a citizenship of the past.
Life without friction Walled gardens Sentient economy Loud streams of data Private nature Synthetic biology Luxury of space
8
Market-driven
Centralised
Introduction to Alpha
You can’t avoid recognising that the weather is perfect again today. There’s a subtle flicker in the canopies offering shade to the guests of the busy cafes along the boulevard. The sun is shining bright but neither your fluid balance nor any of your other metrics seem to have been affected by the heat. It shows how perfectly the breezes flow in this part of town even with such tall buildings; no wonder all the other networks try to copy the design of the area. Everything is deliberate. All the smooth surfaces around you are constantly capturing additional data points: The sentiment of the discussions happening around the tables of the cafes, the kinetic footprint of your movement, the flow of traffic, or the hormonal micro-reactions of you experiencing the same particular personalised ad from your insurer yet again, prompting you to work out. The gym membership is already included in your current plan but they would like you to use it more often, and they try to convince you by visually reminding you of how much fitter you were a few years ago. Everything is being tracked and used to optimise the experience and automatically decide what happens as you turn around the corner. Corporations have grown into complex world-spanning organisms. Underneath the attentive services are AI-powered behemoths: The companies feed on data and evolve and adapt organically based on what their vast network of data sources, sensors, and simulations sense. Much like in a living creature, the neural networks of these corporate entities are quite capable of making their own decisions; be it about production, development, design, distribution, or marketing. Only the fiercest survive — and that ferocity is all about knowing the prey and hunting grounds and adapting better than the competitors. You might not see it at a first glance but the power dynamic has changed dramatically over the last few decades. Power is steadily gravitating from government officials towards corporate leaders. A state-run monopoly on public services was ultimately considered too inefficient and too big of a hindrance to innovation. It couldn’t compete with the personalised services and insurance policies offered by corporate providers. Those who can afford it enjoy rich, healthy lives within the walled gardens of corporate ‘network providers’ including access to fully-serviced communities like this one; complete with seemingly public’ spaces and transportation for their members. Young people find it cute that passports used to just be tied to geography and belonging to a ‘place’. The state’ is becoming less and less important in the day-to-day life compared to the network you belong to. You knew someone who had their comfy plus plan cancelled after a messy divorce. They couldn’t afford the new premium and had to move to another part of town and take their kids out of school; something about the circumstances impacting the risk ratings. It wasn’t even one of the religious communities, it was just a matter of statistical analysis. Imagine suddenly being disconnected…
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Market-driven
Centralised
Stories from Alpha
Jamal 45, Jamal helps people find new jobs. He’s a single dad to a child struggling with anxiety. I’m a career consultant on one of the big networks. The company is huge and offers everything from housing and transportation to personal AI solutions, insurance, and everything in between. My job is to help our users find new opportunities — the service is included in most semi-premium plans. We do this by looking at their ProGenome™. A complete profile put together of everything they’ve done so far, their cognitive profile, their behavioural data, their biometrics, as well a range of other proprietary subconscious indicators including dream data. The AI uses the ProGenome to match the candidate with potential career opportunities. If we identify potential opportunities for improving their ProGenome we can suggest training, therapy, implants, or even new hobbies.
By generated.photos
Work is a critical part of your identity. Your success is a measure of how good you really are — so getting fired can be devastating. I feel sorry for the people who cannot afford more than a basic plan and have to do without the help we’re providing. As a single parent to a kid suffering from high levels of anxiety, I know how hard it can be to stick out in this day and age. If we hadn’t already been on a network with great coverage for that sort of thing we would’ve been out of luck. We have access to excellent therapy and various other services but I’m still worried about what happens in a few years when he not only outgrows my plan but has to start applying for schools and jobs. The thing is, everything is decided by data. It was supposed to be impartial and unbiased but it is just so opaque what happens behind the screens. Back in the days, you had to look someone in the eyes when you rejected them, knowing it was your decision. Today, everything is handled by an abstract system. You can just point your finger at the screen, shrug, and say you’re sorry.
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Society-driven
Centralised
society-driven Centralised Beta
11
Society-driven
Centralised
Beta
We belong together, right here.
Systemic issues were destroying the planet and fuelling unprecedented levels of inequality — but not anymore. People have put their trust in a political solution. Large monolithic structures with the power to not only resist but actually fight back. Governments have been empowered with a wide mandate to regulate society as needed to ensure society is socially and environmentally constructive. The public good — but who are the public and what is good?
Tough choices Keeping down the noise Hidden eyes Precious cultural heritage Symbolic nature Wastelands of beyond Sparks
The geopolitical stakes have been raised as strategic resources are not necessarily readily available on the market and the us vs. them rhetoric has sharpened. Deals need to brokered and if a deal cannot be reached, well then there are other ways to get what you need. Societies, nations, cities, and communities are defined by the heritage, history, culture, values, and the land on which they were founded. It binds them together as one and gives them strength. And you have to be strong as there are others out there who wants what you have and are willing to fight you for it.
12
Society-driven
Centralised
Introduction to Beta
A few dry leaves swirls across as you make your way down the paved path through the park. The gravel grinds between your shoes and the uneven limestone. Looking between two branches on the olive tree from this particular point of view in this particular patch of sunlight, you get a serene and perfectly framed view of the pond. A solitary drake quacks as it floats among the waterlilies. One of your friends working with government told you that they started the process of ‘naturalising’ — as they prefer to call it — autonomous security units into the cityscape a few years ago. So who knows, the duck in the pond might actually be dressed up drone playing charades. It look real though. The pond, part of a system of twelve similar reservoirs, was constructed more than a decade ago as part of the efforts to protect against the storm floods. It’s impressive how nature seems to have adopted it as its own so quickly. Would you imagine how all of this used to be part of a corporate campus? Just last week the national conservatoire hosted a classical music festival and next weekend there is a new exhibition of autonomous sculptures opening at the pavilion. It’s nice how they designed the park as a place of beauty and life even as it is dedicated to the memory of the lives lost to that tragic event. Another gust of wind breaks the silence and rustles the trees arching over you. The tall walls around the memorial park leaves only the sound of the birds — if they are birds and the occasional passersby. The park is shielded from the outside noise much like the city is. All around the world, states have consolidated their influence and efforts around centres of power — large cities with the solidity and strength to withstand the challenges of the outside world. Be it nature or geopolitics. It was necessary to move closer together, grab hold of each other, and stand fast. It wasn’t easy and we had to make sacrifices to get here: To lead more balanced lives, of course, but ultimately it was a matter of survival. Since then, we’ve empowered the systems that keeps the balance as we want it. They minimise the risks, they provide and fight for us, and they keep us safe and well. They protect us, what we stand for, and the land that we live on. Of course, once in a while, there are unfortunate hick-ups, resistance, and even attacks but the kinks are quickly ironed out. They aren’t as fortunate in other parts of the world, you’ve heard.
13
Society-driven
Centralised
Stories from Beta
Jamal 45, Jamal helps people find new jobs. He’s a single dad to a child struggling with anxiety. I’m a job consultant. When people are unemployed we direct them towards open positions, and when they are employed we make sure their work is good work. We need people to work for society to function and people need meaningful work to feel like they are contributing to something. Both are equally important and equally regulated. Most of the actual work is carried out by municipal offices but their work is subjected to the current policies and standards we make here in the National Employment Authority.
By generated.photos
Our jobs can either give us meaning or be really detrimental to our wellbeing if not managed carefully. Being a single dad to a child with anxiety, I know first hand how important it is to have the right support and flexibility. It’s great we’ve built a system that recognises my contribution and makes sure that no employer is able to discriminate against someone like me. We’ve come along way towards the system actually recognising that people are different. I still remember seeing people spend all their energy fighting a complex system just to get the right boxes ticked when they should’ve been fighting something else. The service research and design units have done a good job redesigning many of our public services and processes. It has become more mindful of the humans living within it. Maybe even a little too mindful according to some activists. Few people know what data feeds the AIs are connected to. It’s considered critical infrastructure so they keep most of it confidential to protect it from foreign interests. Or so they say.
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Market-driven
Distributed
Market-driven Distributed Gamma
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Market-driven
Distributed
Gamma
Don’t you see it? — It’s just you and your dreams
The world is moving faster and faster and faster. The actions, ideas, or innovations of an individual can ripple across the world in minutes as entire industries, communities, and movements can bloom and burn out in a matter of weeks. People have broken free from the grasp of yesterdays rulers. Tired old monoliths have fallen and broken into pieces while nimble networks have risen in their place. Agile, distributed structures are the only way if you want to experience any kind of longevity. Society is driven by independent and entrepreneurial individuals — always in motion and hungry to eat while they can. You are your own business and your skills, your network, and your resources make up your product portfolio. Stability, roots, and belongingness in the real world are privileges reserved for those who made it. Everyone else must find comfort and community in the temporary or virtual.
Vibrant hubs Working nomads Flashy indulgence Virtual roots Bodies as organic vessels On to the next one New pioneers The privilege of a home Scavenger hunting
16
Market-driven
Distributed
Introduction to Gamma
You walk by the Hideyo building again this morning just before sunrise. The narrow streets are empty except for a food vendor setting up his booth and a young woman who seems to be checking in to the Hideyo. The tags on her suitcase seem to indicate, that this is not her first relocation. Yet, she also seems to have a cat with her. Traditionally, few people with that lifestyle bothered keeping pets but that might’ve changed. Last night the Hideyo’s facade was illuminated with bright animated green and blue tiger stripes while groups of people were hanging out in front. Today, the wooden structure with its large glass frames look much more modest as it’s nestled in between two older concrete buildings. A more than 15 meter long curtain has been drawn to provide the small units on the inside with some much needed shade as the sun begin to rise. There’s been an influx young and resourceful people recently — and the number of pets is definitely on the rise as well. One of your friends, who runs one of the cafés down by the Bionic Bazaar told you that many of them are here for lucrative temporary contracts. The city is currently the largest hub for synthetic biology after communities of bioengineers and -hackers were forced to relocate from now expired hubs like Shenzhen and Lisbon. Droves of people are now here to either design, manufacture, sell, or upgrade new synthetic body parts or implants. A vibrant network of small, highly specialised, businesses and freelancers has sprung up among the bars and the greasy food stalls. If you open your mouth you feel the buzz of the people, the drones, and the machinery in the workshops tingling on the tip of your tongue. Sometimes it feel like life has become more hectic. People, wares, ideas, art, ideologies, movements, religions are always in flux as new market opportunities appear and others disappear. The platforms enables a constant exchange of goods and ideas — and many people follow. Like nomads constantly in motion to survive and thrive. Governments have a hard time controlling it, most places they focus on staying attractive by providing stability and safety and making transitioning in and out as smooth as possible. Not everyone moves around all time of course — some do not want to, some can afford to choose and others simply can’t move due to various circumstances. You can easily work remote. However, many would say it is hard to argue why your body should stay put in a single place all the time, when technology allows you to see, feel, touch, and even smell your friends and family from the other side of the planet. Private permanent simulated worlds are becoming increasingly popular; families might keep a virtual farmstead, or a group of friends might explore distant galaxies on a starship. Your existence reaches far beyond your body, so why not place that body somewhere with a reasonable rent, good working conditions, and an optimal timezone.
17
Market-driven
Distributed
Stories from Gamma
Jamal 45, Jamal helps people find new jobs. He’s a single dad to a child struggling with anxiety. I’m a contract broker on a local exchange. I manage our listings. Most of the listings are organisations or project consortiums looking for resources — be it people, facilities, technologies, or raw materials. If someone in our network has the resources, they reach out and our service facilitates the rest.
By generated.photos
Whenever people want to do business in a particular area or industry they come to a broker like us to connect them with the right networks. Around here, welfare tech has been growing massively over the last half-year or so, leading to a surge in activity. We’ve had an influx of people wanting to connect with the local businesses or to move here to pursue some of the well-paid contracts currently available. Everyone is different and all work for their own reasons — however, money and interest are often two of the main components. You’re on your own in many ways. Some people thrive in the ambiguous and almost chaotic nature of short-term work. They love the action, the strategic decisions for their careers, and the chase in hunting down the most thrilling opportunities. Others are paralysed by the choices and changes. I mean, I have a kid suffering from anxiety. I try to prepare him for what’s out there but how do you do really do that? He’s so smart and talented but I’m worried that he’ll never get a chance to use it. It’s all on me to give him the tools to manage it. Differences have never been as pronounced as they are now. We’ve become much more accepting — at least in some ways. I mean, for goodness sake, we live in a world where I saw someone wag their synthetic tail in excitement outside the ice cream shop down the road. It’s great we can give people furry tails if they want them but what about the people who are lonely, depressed, or in other ways vulnerable? People create support groups and we all try to take care of the people dear to us, but still. I can’t help feeling like we could do more as a society — even if it’s kind of hard to define who “we” are anymore with so many people constantly on the move.
18
Society-driven
Distributed
society-driven distributed Delta
19
Society-driven
Distributed
Delta
Do it yourself together
Engaged citizens and grassroots movements have the initiative and drive the change they want to see from the bottom up. Society was heading for ecological and social collapse in the name of profit and all proposed changes were too little, too late. If something radical was to happen it needed to start from the bottom — and so it did. Today, the system has been flipped into something much closer and more citizen-driven. All the bureaucracy was redundant: It was too slow and too far removed from the from the people it was supposed to look after. Community and a symbiotic relationship to nature is more important than material riches. Not saying that innovation has halted, it has simply taken on a more open and community based approach focused on creating shared value for societies.
Social tribes Quiet Bodily connection DIY culture Aggressive nature Between the cracks Careful consumption
20
Society-driven
Distributed
Introduction to Delta
A fresh breeze brush against your face as you walk across the paved square in front of the senior centre. The shops are not open yet but the small plaza is coming alive. Last week, they started working on restoring the facade and roofing of the old senior centre. It has been a recurring topic at the town hall meetings for years. The community has been talking about tearing it down and building a new one for ages but it has been delayed over an over. With a new roof it probably won’t be for at least 10-15 years so maybe they’ll have time to discuss some other issues like a coordinated effort to restore the park or upgrade the dated network infrastructure in the western half of the neighbourhood. The work is being done by a mix of specialised workers who are paid by the community fund and locals using some of their allotted community work days to help with the restoration. Emily, a retired engineer and an active user of the senior centre, helps out by supervising the drones laying out the roof tiles. A couple out walking their dog shakes their heads smiling at the sight: Old Emily wearing a headset, commanding her inorganic, flying, subordinates from the comfort of a wooden garden chair with yellow paint peeling off, wrapped in a checkered wool blanket with a cup of hot tea in her hands. It’s mostly quiet. All you can hear is the seagulls and the deep rumblings coming from Paul, a mobile automated production unit. A MAPU as it is often called is basically a large trailer with a miniature factory inside. No one but the makers seem to know exactly how it works. Currently Robert is being fed old tiles and is spitting out a batch of fresh ones every other minute. The council decided to invest in building it a few years ago after much debate. So far Robert has been saving the community a lot of money and resources but some still thought the money would’ve been better spent on something else. Everyone is expected to contribute a bit of time to the community, and tasks are divided according to everyones abilities. Some tasks are preassigned while others are chosen from the various projects posted on the community board. Most people are expected to do about a day’s worth of work every month, but you’re free to join larger projects like the restoration of the senior centre and gain credits for several months at a time. Tasks can be anything from helping out with a festival, shopping for those who can’t do it themselves, or cooking in the community kitchen to helping managing and maintaining public buildings, facilities, or digital infrastructure like the local AIs. All communities, typically city districts or large neighbourhoods, are organised in powerful community councils and committees that have a great control of local spending and regulation. Council members are randomly selected every two years to encourage everyone to engage with the local democracy while members of the committees are elected in local elections. The power gap is closing but it has brought conflict much closer as well, as individual communities start to develop ideological differences. Over the last few years there have been multiple reports of hate crimes, harassment, and vandalism against minorities and members of the council and people serving on the various committees. So far, everything points to the resurgence of the ethno-nationalist who are calling for a single strong leader to rally the nation — a romantic idea from the past.
21
Society-driven
Distributed
Stories from Delta
Jamal 45, Jamal helps people find new jobs. He’s a single dad to a child struggling with anxiety. I’m a contribution-organiser on the local community platform. We gather all the different jobs and tasks that need to be done in our neighbourhoods and help distribute among community members as well as possible. We list both paid positions at companies and organisations as well as community tasks where people can contribute to their community and earn community credits.
By generated.photos
We used to talk about jobs and work a lot. But what is work really? Nowadays, we mostly talk about contributing rather than working. Whether it is contributing to a local business renovating the drainage system on a daily basis for a wage, participating in a global community of bio-hackers researching treatments for mental illnesses, or baking bread for the daycare down the street every other month. All are contributions. Some contributions might earn you some money while others might give you other kinds of value or resources — or really just the joy of doing something meaningful in and of itself. Not everyone is able to contribute the same and that’s fine. I mean, my kid is struggling with anxiety and our community understands that. They’ve always been very mindful and have tried to help us make our daily lives work like covering for me, helping with cooking, or printing a calming toy. It’s great to have that kind of support and warmth but it gets more complicated as soon as we need something outside of our community. We have regular check-ins with our specialists — they’re great and they’ve known him since he was little — but we once needed some experimental meds and it took months to figure out how to get them.
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