Text Network Analysis of Russian Presidents' Speeches 2008-2012

Addresses to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation by Russian Presidents. 2008 to 2012.

Comparative Analysis.

by Dmitry Paranyushkin, Nodus Labs dmitry@noduslabs.com | www.noduslabs.com | Berlin, Germany

Introduction Every year Russian presidents deliver address to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation, which includes prominent politicians, ministers, government officials and various other public figures. They set the president’s public agenda for the forthcoming year and give an insight into the specific proposals and strategies that are to be implemented. These addresses are available in English on Kremlin’s website http:// eng.kremlin.ru/transcripts/messages

Objective For this research project we at Nodus Labs decided to apply our text network analysis methodology to the four addresses by President Dmitry Medvedev (given from 2008 through 2011) and the first address by President Vladimir Putin in his third term (given in 2012). Our interest was to identify the most prominent topics in these addresses and also detect any shifts in rhetorics during Medvedev’s presidency and especially at the moment of transition from Medvedev to Putin.

Methodology In this work we used the methodology for text network analysis developed by Dmitry Paranyushkin from Nodus Labs. Textual analysis is performed by Textexture software (http://textexture.com) developed at Nodus Labs. The visualizations and some parts of graph analysis are produced by the open-source Gephi software (http://gephi.org) as well as Sigma.Js library by Alexis Jacomy.

A detailed description of methodology we use for text network analysis and visualization is available in the white paper published on http://noduslabs.com/research/pathwaysmeaning-circulation-text-network-analysis/ To give a short introduction, here’s a brief description of how it works. First, a submitted text is scanned to remove all the most frequently used “stopwords”, such as “are”, “is”, “the”, “a”, etc. The second scan removes any extra characters and turns every word into its morpheme (e.g. “took” becomes “take”, “plates” becomes “plate”). The resulting sequence is then scanned so that every word is encoded as a node and their co-occurrence is encoded as the connection between them. The nodes are not only linked if they are next to each other in the text. The paragraph and sentence structures are taken into account, as

well as the Landscape reading model, according to which our memory creates a landscape of concepts that are more likely to be activated during the reading process.

The resulting node-edge structure is encoded into a graph format and is processed by Gephi server-side Java toolkit, which calculates the basic metrics and applies community detection algorithms to the graph.

The size of the nodes is then ranged according to their betweenness centrality (a measure of how often a node appears on the shortest path between any two randomly chosen nodes in the network), thus emphasizing the words, which often appear at the junctions between the word clusters. This is different from highlighting the most frequently used words as most programs do, because the words with the highest betweenness centrality are not necessarily the ones that are most often used within the text. They are rather the keywords that occur at the transition from one context to another. Obviously, if a text has only a few contexts there will be a higher correlation between the frequency and the betweenness centrality measure.

The nodes are then colored according to the community they belong to. The nodes are considered to belong to the same community if they are more densely connected together than with the rest of the network. Modularity iterative algorithm embedded in Gephi does the job of finding these communities.

As the final step, the graph is visualized using Sigma.Js library by Alexis Jacomy, which also applies Force Atlas layout developed by Matthieu Jacomy in Gephi, which pulls the nodes that belong to the same community together and pushes those communities apart in order to provide a more visually readable image of the graph.

The resulting text network visualization is shown to the user (only the 100 most connected nodes), offering a quick overview of the most important terms and topics insides, as well as the relations between them.

The user can click on a node to see the excerpts of the text where the word occurs.

Further navigation through the graph allows the user to get only the parts of the text, which contains the most relevant terms. Thus, Textexture can also be used as a non-linear reading machine, providing the general overview of a text, on one side, and offering the capacity to “zoom into� the different parts of the text interesting for the researcher.

Textexture also works with transcribed YouTube videos, making it a useful tool for skimming through large sets of data.

The Results Address by President Medvedev, November 5 2008.

Interactive text network visualization: http://textexture.com/index.php?text_id=12218 FIGURE 1 Statistics: Average path: 1.75 Diameter: 3

Modularity: 0.22 Average degree: 25.4 Clustering: 0.372 The central concepts are: state people system russia The four main topics are: #1: state work public citizen “We also need to entrust a growing number of social and political responsibilities directly to our citizens, their organisations and local self-government. Of course the state will retain the responsibilities that fall within its jurisdiction, and action must be pragmatic and accompanied by a sober assessment of the risks, but action is necessary.Above all therefore, I propose taking measures to improve the level and quality of public representation in government, measures that will encourage the public to become more involved in political life.” #2: people russia country important “These steps are dictated by our desire to see Russia become an advanced and progressive country in the nearest future, a country that offers people a comfortable life, and is a prosperous community of free people based on fair laws.” #3: system russian constitution development “Civic rights and freedoms, the nation’s sovereignty, the state system and federal organisation, the organisation principles of the judicial system and local self-government, and the other foundations of our constitutional order have been set for a long-term historical period.” #4: law international federation part “Finally, fifth, the Constitution also plays its part in bolstering international law. International law, as we know, is made up of states’ observance of their national constitutions and their commitments under international agreements and treaties. Therefore, the better states coordinate their actions on the international stage with the provisions of international law, the greater the level of security in our world.”

As can be seen from the analysis and the excerpts above, Medvedev’s first address was focused on the relation between the state and the people, stressing the importance of developing a democratic system based on the constitution and respect for individuals’ freedoms and international law. This address sets Medvedev’s general agenda for the forthcoming four years, but lacks any specifics.

by President Medvedev, November 12 2009.

Interactive text network visualization: http://textexture.com/index.php?text_id=12276 FIGURE 2

Statistics: Average path: 1.78 Diameter: 3 Modularity: 0.21 Average degree: 22.9 Clustering: 0.358 The central concepts are: people year country system The main topics are: #1: people country time school “Second, we need to work hard to protect the uniqueness of our country's culture in all its diversity, to help preserve the rich ethnic traditions of Russia's peoples, and at the same time develop and improve Russian language programmes, which serve as the basis for communication and unity in our country” #2: year law political authority “In just six months of this year we have reviewed more than 4,500 cases of corruption convicting 532 officials of government authorities and local self-government bodies, and more than 700 law enforcement officers.” #3: system government quality russian “The Government needs to develop and introduce a system of measures creating longterm incentives for raising the quality of state services and ensuring responsibility for effectively spending budget money and producing more efficient results in general.” #4: development support work programme “Finally, we need to complete preparation work on the programme for establishing a prominent research and development centre in Russia to focus on support for absolutely all of the priority areas”.

The rhetorics in the second address of Medvedev still focused on the relations between the government and the public, but this time it was a bit more specific. The address was more focused on the steps the government needs to take in order to build an efficient government system and democratic society. On the one hand, he stressed the importance of cultural development, education and innovation. On the other hand, he talked about increasing the state’s efficiency through fighting corruption and increasing the quality of public services.

Address by president Medvedev, November 30 2010. http://textexture.com/index.php?text_id=12288 FIGURE 3

Statistics: Average path: 1.84 Diameter: 3 Modularity: 0.243 Average degree: 19.3 Clustering: 0.346 The central concepts are: child people year state The main topics: #1: child create country project “Everything I was talking about just now, all the modernisation is not a goal in itself. It is an instrument, a tool that would allow us to solve economic and social problems that are long overdue. An instrument we can use to support those who need it most and create the conditions that would help develop the potential of those we pin our hopes on: our youth and our children.” #2: people work time family “We need new standards in governance and public services, a higher quality of courts and law enforcement, modern ways for people to participate in the development of their city or village, and more involvement on the part of the people in the work of municipal authorities. [...] The forth point is that according to the experts, the main way to overcome the demographic crisis is a radical increase in the number of families with three and more children.” #3: year system decision number “To raise pensions and modernise the healthcare system, we made a number of tough decisions, including raising mandatory medical insurance premiums.” #4: state law society introduce “Today I am going to introduce a law to the State Duma allowing the court to use a caseby-case approach when choosing punishment” The focus of Medvedev’s third speech are the children and families. The rhetorics becomes even more specific than in the addresses before, shifting the responsibility for building a modern economy from the government towards the people. The much-talked about modernisation is made into something of a long-term goal for the future generations (probably because it became clear that it wouldn’t work out as fast as expected previously). In order to achieve this goal, people should work harder themselves and build strong families with at least three children. The government’s role is reduced to making “strong decisions” and introducing the new laws through the state parliament (Duma). Is that the beginning of Medvedev’s decline?

Address by president Medvedev, December 22 2011

http://textexture.com/index.php?text_id=12313 FIGURE 4 Statistics: Average path: 1.83 Diameter: 3 Modularity: 0.237 Average degree: 19.67 Clustering: 0.312 The central concepts are: year russia development work The main topics: #1: year russia country crisis “Overall, Russia’s anti-crisis policy has been more effective than in many other countries or in previous crises, of which, as we know, there were many.” #2: development work time region “But even in these difficult conditions we have no right to pause our development. Such work will require perseverance, strength and, naturally, time to overcome inertia and a great deal of old stereotypes.” #3: state regional public federal “Finally, regional heads will get the right to bring up the issue of delegating a significant number of public powers from the federal to the regional level – if they are ready for it, of course. At the same time, some of the powers may be additionally given to all regions by a federal law – first and foremost, those powers that directly influence the investment climate and socioeconomic development of those regions.” #4: government system political important “Today, at the new stage of the nation’s development and in support of the new initiative put forward by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, I propose a comprehensive reform of our political system.I would like to say that I hear all those who talk about the need for change, and I understand them. We must give all active citizens a legitimate opportunity to participate in the country’s political life. To achieve that, I believe the following measures are necessary.

To return to direct regional elections for the heads of Russian constituent entities.

To introduce a simplified procedure for the registration of political parties.”

During his last address Medvedev continued his usual rhetorics about the development and modernisation of the country. However, this time the striking difference is that the notion of “people” is not so present as in the speeches before. Instead, the focus is on the reform of political system, especially the part of it where more authority is delegated to the regional governments. Clearly, as a result of the earlier protests, Medvedev had to shift his rhetorics and acknowledge that the country’s development is not possible without a

comprehensive political reform focused on creating a more open and decentralized government system.

Address by president Putin, December 12 2012 http://textexture.com/index.php?text_id=12329 FIGURE 5 Statistics: Average path: 1.82 Diameter: 3 Modularity: 0.217 Average degree: 20.5 Clustering: 0.349 The main concepts are: state region russian work The main topics are: #1: state system public law “The change and modernisation of the political system are natural and even necessary, but I have said in the past that it would be inadmissible to allow for the destruction of the state to satisfy this thirst for change.” #2: region people tax attention “I also believe that as of 2014 regions should receive the right to tax real estate based on its cadastral value, and this would strengthen a given region’s tax base”. #3: russian economy responsibility family “We need a comprehensive system of measures to reverse the offshoring of our economy.

I am instructing the Government to make corresponding integrated proposals on this matter. [...] As Solzhenitsyn said, patriotism is an organic, natural feeling. And as a society cannot survive without civil responsibility, so a country, especially a multinational one, cannot exist without a nationwide responsibility. These are remarkable words, they really bring it home.” #4: work government country time “By the end of the first quarter of 2013, the Government must work out in detail its proposed measures, including tax breaks for so-called start-ups (new businesses), plans for the development of energy, infrastructure and so on.”

Putin’s first presidential address in his 3rd term is full of specifics. He continues Medvedev’s rhetorics stressing the importance of building a modern political system.

However, he emphasizes his belief that such changes should take place gradually. There are also concrete proposals to give more autonomy to the regions, including the changes

in tax code allowing the regions to have more control over their budgets. Also, Putin stresses the notion of “responsibility” and “patriotism” linking it with the measures to reverse the offshoring of the Russian economy. Finally, the importance of a good climate for small business is emphasized, albeit without concrete proposals.

In general, Putin’s address sort of combines Medvedev’s rhetorics over the past 4 years: there’s a talk about the necessity of modernisation, renewing political system, giving more autonomy to the regions, the importance of investing into children and families. However, the difference is that if Medvedev had a strong pro-modernisation pro-western stance, Putin, instead, focuses on the notion of patriotic responsibility, which, perhaps, may be more effective rhetorics to bring the much-talked-about modernisation back home – meaning the return of investments back to the Russian assets.

Appendix: How do the Russian presidential addresses over the past 5 years compare to the US ones?

For that quick comparison we use the materials prepared by Nodus Labs for the Guardian newspaper in February 2013, where we made comparative text network analysis of US presidents inauguration speeches from 1967 to 2013. This material is available on http:// noduslabs.com/cases/presidents-inaugural-speeches-text-network-analysis/ It’s important to note that the Russian president’s Assembly addresses are directed towards the country’s political elite as much as the public and happen once a year. The US inauguration speeches set the agenda for the forthcoming presidential 4-year term and are addressed to the wider public. Thus, the rhetorics in this case will also be much more oriented towards the general public and less specific.

For a more precise comparative analysis between the US and Russian presidential rhetorics, annual address of the US presidents to the congress should be taken. However, this comparison provides a good idea of the current Russian presidential agenda in relation to the historical US presidential agenda from 1967 to 2013.

The most striking difference is that the Russian presidents focus much more on the notion of “system”. All their speeches reiterate the fact that the government and political systems are still being created and that it’s important to ensure that it develops in a democratic way while maintaining the country’s integrity.

The American presidents always use the word “freedom” in their addresses, emphasizing the importance of freedom and liberty for the US citizens.

There is also much more emphasis on the notions of “nation” and the “world” in the US presidential speeches. Russian presidents are more focused on the internal problems of the country and the challenges of building a new political system. It is only in Putin’s 2012 speech that the notion of nation starts to gradually emerge through the ideas of patriotism and responsibility.

It is also interesting that American presidents often appeal to the notion of “generation” in their rhetorics, while the Russian presidents focus on the notion of “family”. This is probably due to the more immediate challenge of depopulation that Russia is currently facing. It is also much more difficult to think of the generations to come in a country where long-term risks are much higher than in the better-off Western counterparts.

Finally, an interesting detail is that Medvedev in his mid-term emphasized the notion of “child”, just like Clinton did when reelected for his second term. Is it something that politicians cling on to in the midst of their failing popularity?