A S I A PAC I F I C L E A S I N G MARKET SENTIMENT SURVEY M AY 2 0 2 1
ASIA PACIFIC LEASING MARKET SENTIMENT INDEX
CBRE’S Leasing Market Sentiment Survey is based on responses from leasing market professionals across Asia Pacific
Tenant enquiries and site inspections affected by new distancing measures
40%
40%
20%
0%
0%
0%
-20%
-20%
Apr-21
Net Intention - Net % difference between positive & negative answers A S I A PA C I F I C MA RKET S ENTI MENT S URV EY
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May-21
Mar-21
Jan-21
Feb-21
Dec-20
Oct-20
Nov-20
Sep-20
Weak
Aug-20
-80%
Jul-20
May-21
-60% Apr-21
Decrease
-40%
Mar-21
May-21
Apr-21
Mar-21
Feb-21
Decrease
Jan-21
-60%
Dec-20
-40%
Oct-20
-20%
Nov-20
-30%
-40% Sep-20
-10%
Feb-21
-20%
20%
Jan-21
0%
Leasing sentiment
60%
10%
-10%
Landlord strength
Strong 80%
20%
10%
Less
Incentives
Dec-20
20%
30%
Nov-20
30%
Rents
Leasing sentiment in Australia, Korea and mainland China are largely stable or positive. Some improvement was observed in Japan but sentiment in India was hit by the second wave of COVID.
60%
Aug-20
Net Intentions
40%
40%
Increase
Oct-20
50%
Flexible space demand
Increase
While rents are still on downward trend, the pressure is not increasing. There is also less pressure to increase incentives.
Sep-20
More
Tenant enquries and tour requests Site inspections
Similar to last month, around 55% of respondents to May’s survey stated they had not detected any major change in demand for flexible office space.
Leasing sentiment softened
Downward pressure on rents continues
Aug-20
Tighter measures to control the spread of COVID-19 led to fewer enquiries and site inspections in India, Japan and Singapore. Australia continues to recover.
Steady demand for flexible space
2
ASIA PACIFIC LEASING MARKET SENTIMENT INDEX – INDIVIDUAL MARKETS Positive 80%
Positive/Stable Leasing Sentiment
60%
Net Intentions
40%
May-21
20%
May-21 May-21
0%
May-21 May-21
-20%
May-21
May-21
May-21
May-21
-40%
-60%
-80%
Negative
Asia Pacific
Australia
Korea
Mainland China
Singapore
Hong Kong SAR
Japan
South East Asia
Note: Surveyed indicators were revised in May 2021. Market sentiment is based on the simple average of net intentions (net % difference between positive & negative answers) of eight surveyed indicators. A S I A PA C I F I C MA RKET S ENTI MENT S URV EY
India
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EXPANSIONARY DEMAND IS RECOVERING; BUT SOME TAKE LONGER TIME TO CONCLUDE Q3. What was the nature of the five largest enquiries you received over the past month? (Top two answers apply) Q4. Of the five largest enquiries you received over the past month, when do you expect them to be converted to signed leases?
Less than 8 months on average to conclude the leases
100% 90%
More than 8 months
Months 14
11% 12
80% 10
70% 60%
8
50% 6
40% 30%
4
20% 10%
2
25%
0%
0 APAC
South East Asia
Australia
Mainland China
Appetite for more space
Neutral
New set-up, expansion and upgrading
Relocation, renewal, renewal vs relocation analysis, lease restructure
India
Korea
Appetite for less space
Japan
Hong Kong SAR
Singapore
Average time to sign lease (LHS)
Downsizing and sublease
Note: N=162, New question from May 2021. Appetite for more space includes new set-up, expansion and upgrading. Neutral includes relocation, renewal, renewal vs relocation analysis, lease restructure. Appetite for less space includes downsizing and sublease. Source: Asia Pacific Market Sentiment Survey, May 2021. A S I A PA C I F I C MA RKET S ENTI MENT S URV EY
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INDIVIDUAL SECTOR RESULTS Rental Movement
Frequency of Site Inspections 100%
80%
14%
17%
90%
8%
25%
50%
36%
43%
70%
% of respective respondents
2%
38%
37%
60%
Leasing Sentiment
53%
58%
64%
63%
27%
57%
34%
40% 30% 20%
57%
17%
46% 35%
33%
33%
35%
30%
10%
19%
18%
0%
Office
Retail
Infrequent
Normal
Industrial Frequent
Source: Asia Pacific Market Sentiment Survey, May 2021. A S I A PA C I F I C MA RKET S ENTI MENT S URV EY
Office Decrease
Retail About the same
Industrial Increase
Office Negative
Retail Neutral
Industrial Positive
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ASIA PACIFIC LEASING MARKET SENTIMENT – SECTORS
On a scale of 1-5, 1 being the worst and 5 being the best, how would you rate current leasing sentiment in your market?
Best
5.0 4.5 4.0 May-21
3.5 May-21
May-21
3.0 May-21
2.5 2.0 1.5
Worst 1.0
Overall
A S I A PA C I F I C MA RKET S ENTI MENT S URV EY
Office
Retail
Industrial
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SURVEY PROFILE • •
The CBRE Asia Pacific Market Sentiment Survey was conducted from May 3 to May 14, 2021. A total of 162 responses from CBRE’s leasing market professionals across Asia Pacific were received.
RESPONDENTS BY MARKET May-21
7%
Apr-21
13%
30%
35%
17%
Mar-21
10%
23%
Feb-21
11%
23%
Jan-21
12%
Dec-20
12%
RESPONDENTS BY SECTOR
28%
4% 7% 3% 1%
5%
30%
23%
29%
18%
41%
10% 3% 5%2%
6%
7%
5%
13%
12%
11%
10%
3%
16%
6% 2% 10%
8% 2%
8% 2%
15%
13%
68%
Apr-21
66%
Mar-21
12%
10%
48%
11%
20%
23% 41%
15%
Feb-21
71%
14%
15%
17%
Jan-21
71%
12%
17%
7% 2% 9%
Mainland China
Japan
India
Singapore
Australia
Hong Kong SAR
Korea
Dubai
Others
Note: Others include South East Asia (Cambodia, Philippines, Thailand & Vietnam), Taiwan and New Zealand. Source: Asia Pacific Market Sentiment Survey, May 2021. A S I A PA C I F I C MA RKET S ENTI MENT S URV EY
May-21
Dec-20
68%
0%
20%
Office
40% 60% Industrial Retail
19%
13%
80%
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100%
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DISCLAIMERS AND WAIVERS This presentation has been prepared in good faith based on CBRE’s current views of the commercial real-estate market. Although CBRE believes its views reflect market conditions on the date of this presentation, they are subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies, many of which are beyond CBRE’s control. In addition, many of CBRE’s views are opinion and/or projections based on CBRE’s subjective analyses of current market circumstances. Other firms may have different opinions, projections and analyses, and actual market conditions in the future may cause CBRE’s current views to later be incorrect. CBRE has no obligation to update its views herein if its opinions, projections, analyses or market circumstances later change.
Nothing in this presentation should be construed as an indicator of the future performance of CBRE’s securities or of the performance of any other company’s securities. You should not purchase or sell securities – of CBRE or any other company – based on the views herein. CBRE disclaims all liability for securities purchased or sold based on information herein, and by viewing this presentation, you waive all claims against CBRE and the presenter as well as against CBRE’s affiliates, officers, directors, employees, agents, advisers and representatives arising out of the accuracy, completeness, adequacy or your use of the information herein.
A S I A PA C I F I C MA RKET S ENTI MENT S URV EY
© 2021 CBRE, INC.
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FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS REGIONAL REPORT, PLEASE CONTACT Asia Pacific Research Henry Chin, Ph.D. Global Head of Investor Thought Leadership Head of Research, APAC henry.chin@cbre.com.hk
Ada Choi, CFA Head of Occupier Research, APAC Head of Data Intelligence and Management, APAC ada.choi@cbre.com.hk
Cynthia Chan Office Research Specialist, APAC
Felix Lee Senior Analyst, APAC
cynthia.chan@cbre.com.hk
felix.lee@cbre.com
Advisory & Transaction Services (A&T) Manish Kashyap Head of A&T, APAC Global Head of A&T – Agile manish.kashyap@cbre.com.sg
Paul Hubbard-Brown Managing Director, APAC
Rohini Saluja Managing Director, APAC
Emily Gray Senior Director, APAC
paul.hubbardbrown@cbre.com.hk
Rohini.saluja@cbre.com.sg
emily.medwaygray@cbre.com
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CBRE RESEARCH This report was prepared by the CBRE Asia Pacific Research Team, which forms part of CBRE Research—a network of preeminent researchers who collaborate to provide real estate market research and econometric forecasting to real estate.
All materials presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright and proprietary to CBRE. Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from materials and sources believed to be reliable at the date of publication. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. Readers are responsible for independently assessing the relevance, accuracy, completeness and currency of the information of this publication. This report is presented for information purposes only exclusively for CBRE clients and professionals, and is not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. All rights to the material are reserved and none of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party without prior express written permission of CBRE. Any unauthorized publication or redistribution of CBRE research reports is prohibited. CBRE will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this publication. To learn more about CBRE Research, or to access additional research reports, please visit the Global Research Gateway at reports www.cbre.com/research-and-reports © 2021 CBRE, Inc