Global Industrial and Logistic House View for 2022

Page 1

February 2022

Global Industrial & Logistics Outlook


Agenda

Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.

1

Global Economic Outlook

2

Supply Chain

3

Retail & E-Commerce

4

Investment Market

5

I&L Global Market Outlook

6

Regional Market Fundamentals

2



ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

GLOBAL GDP GROWTH: ANNUAL % 10

Global GDP Recovery Continues

8 6 4 2 0

– Strong GDP growth in 2021 as major economies recover following successful vaccination campaigns. – The pace of GDP growth will slow in 2022 from 2021’s exceptionally high levels but remain strong. – GDP growth expected to slow in 2023 for the United States, Euro Area and United Kingdom., while Asia Pacific and China will see elevated levels of growth.

-2 -4 -6 -8 -10 2018

2019

2020 U.S.

Euro Area

2021 U.K.

Asia Pacific

2022

2023

China

Source: CBRE House View, February 2022 Forecast. Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.

4


ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Return to Normalcy Driven by Vaccine Rollout

DOSES ADMINISTERED PER ONE HUNDRED PERSONS BY NATION Singapore China Canada Japan Brazil United Kingdom United States European Union Mexico India 30

40

50 Fully Vaccinated

60

70

80

90

100

Partially Vaccinated

Source: Our World in Data, CBRE Research, January 6, 2022. Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.

5


ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX >100 = POSITIVE CONFIDENCE 140

Consumer Sentiment Rebounds Slowly

130 120 110

Key Recovery Drivers – Government stimulus, unemployment benefits and swift vaccine rollouts boost confidence from Q2 2020. – Supply chain issues, inflation, and labor crunches for retailers pull down U.S. confidence, however, sales have not been impacted.

100 90 80 70 United States

Asia Pacific Q1 2021

Euro Area Q2 2021

Q3 2021

United Kingdom Q4 2021

Source: The Conference Board, January 2022. Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.

6


ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Key Risks to Watch

Faster than expected interest rate hikes

three

At least interest rate raises are expected in the United States in 20221

Rising debt among mainland Chinese developers $100 billion

Around of onshore and offshore bonds must be refinanced by listed mainland Chinese developers by 20232

Prolonged supply chain disruption

63% of respondents expect no improvement until H2 20223

Source: 1 FOMC (Link), December 2021; 2 Bloomberg, CBRE Research October 2021; 3 Oxford Economics Global Risk Survey, October 2021. Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.

7


ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

CPI FORECAST (ANNUAL AVERAGE) 5.0%

Inflationary Pressure for Major Economies Varies

Higher but not excessive inflation in 2022

4.0%

Moderating

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

0.0%

United Kingdom

Mainland China

United States

Euro Zone

Australia

2023F

2022F

2021F

2023F

2022F

2021F

2023F

2022F

2021F

2023F

2022F

2021F

2023F

2022F

2021F

2023F

2022F

2021F

-1.0%

Japan

Source: CBRE House View, January 2022. Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.

8



SUPPLY CHAIN

Key drivers of logistics demand Omnichannel retail

Operational efficiency

Supply chain resilience

– Accelerating growth in ecommerce requires retailers to augment delivery capacity

– Occupiers seek to expand and upgrade to modern facilities to enhance storage efficiency and install tech, especially automation

– Localization of production

– Economic growth and urbanisation support demand in emerging markets

– Diversification of sourcing

– Growing demand for facilities located near points of consumption

Source: CBRE Research, January 2022. Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.

10


SUPPLY CHAIN

Logistics Occupiers Retain Optimistic Outlook Towards Expansion

APAC OCCUPIERS’ PLANS FOR WAREHOUSE PORTFOLIOS IN THE NEXT THREE YEARS

Grow by more than 10%

52%

Grow by less than 10%

26%

Remain the same

Shrink by less than 10%

Shrink by more than 10%

Total

78%

20%

1%

0%

Source: Asia Pacific Logistics Occupier Survey, CBRE Research, September 2021 Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.

11


SUPPLY CHAIN

Ongoing supply chain disruption Manufacturing suspension

Surge in global shipping costs

Insufficient logistics capacity

– Tighter safety protocols or lockdowns

– Uptick in export demand from Asia to Europe and the United States

– Border controls

– Shortages of key materials – Concerns about power supply in mainland China and India

– Delays to port operations and container shortages

– Driver shortages – Record-low vacancy

Source: CBRE Research, January 2022. Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.

12


SUPPLY CHAIN

The Surge in Costs

P&L Line Items Transportation costs

“It takes roughly an 8% increase in fixed facility costs to equal the impact of just a 1% increase in transportation costs,”

Fixed facility costs*

Logistics Costs

Variable facility costs**

Inventory carrying costs

says Joe Dunlap, Managing Director of CBRE Supply Chain Advisory.

Other related costs

45-70% 3-6% 15-25% 12-16% 7-12%

* Includes rent. ** Includes payroll.

Source: CBRE Supply Chain Consulting, Q4 2021 Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.

13


SUPPLY CHAIN

U.S. Supply Chain Costs Transportation costs growing significantly faster than facility costs.

Transportation Costs

Facility Costs

+152.0%

+44.0%

+11.0%

+6.0%

Ocean Shipping Rate

Cass Freight Index - Expenditures

U.S. Industrial Asking Rent Growth

Average Hourly Warehouse Wages

Annual cost increase to ship a 40-foot container from Shanghai to Los Angeles.

Average year-over-year increases in domestic freight costs. Includes all domestic transportation modes (truck, rail, air) .

2021 year-over-year asking rent growth was an all-time record.

Compares the U.S. hourly wage increases for a non-supervisory warehouse worker from December 2020 to December 2021.

Source: Drewry Container Port Index – February 2022

Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.

Source: Cass Information Systems Inc.

Source: CBRE Research, 2021

Source: CBRE Labor Analytics

14


2021-11-01

2021-03-01

2020-07-01

2019-11-01

2019-03-01

2018-07-01

2017-11-01

2017-03-01

2016-07-01

2015-11-01

2015-03-01

2014-07-01

– Put them closer to consumption points

2011-11-01

Refocusing Supply Chains Priorities in the Covid-19 Era

2013-11-01

– From just-in-time to just-in-case principles

1.80 1.70 1.60 1.50 1.40 1.30 1.20 1.10 1.00 0.90 0.80 2013-03-01

Inventory Control

2012-07-01

SUPPLY CHAIN

U.S. Inventory to Sales Ratio

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, November 2021.

Expand Network Resilience and Agility – Diversify sourcing and production bases

Europe North America Mexico

Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.

Central & Eastern Europe (CEE), e.g. Poland

Asia Pacific China Plus One, e.g. Vietnam, Indonesia, India

15



E-COMMERCE

E-Commerce Sales Remain the Same as Post COVID Surge

E-COMMERCE % SHARE OF TOTAL RETAIL SALES Forecast

60%

50%

40%

– The COVID-19 pandemic caused

30%

accelerated e-commerce penetration in all markets. – E-Commerce penetration levels

20%

have moderated following the end of lockdowns but remain above pre-pandemic levels in

10%

most markets.

0% 2015

2016

2017 Australia

2018

2019

Mainland China

2020 Korea

2021

2022

United Kingdom

2023

2024

2025

United States

Source: Euromonitor CBRE Research, February 2022. Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.

17


Lowest Possible Score E-COMMERCE

But E-Commerce Will Not Grow at the Same Pace Around the Globe CBRE E-Commerce Drivers Index: How Prepared is a Market to Support E-Commerce?

Highest Possible Score

South Korea United Kingdom Germany Hong Kong SAR Japan Mainland China Denmark USA Sweden Netherlands Switzerland Singapore New Zealand Norway Belgium France Finland Canada Australia Estonia Czech Republic Spain Indonesia Ireland Greece Italy Portugal Hungary Latvia Russia Slovakia Slovenia Turkey Brazil Austria Romania India Mexico Malaysia Croatia Poland Thailand Lithuania South Africa

Top Scoring Markets

KEY E-COMMERCE DRIVERS Demographics - % of urban population Usage - Digital skills of population - Mobile internet ratio - Dominant e-commerce player Cultural - Credit and Debit card use Infrastructure - Fixed broadband subscriptions 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Source: Euromonitor, CBRE Research, May 2021. Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.

18


2020

E-COMMERCE

50%

E-Commerce penetration will continue to grow in established markets

45%

E-Commerce Penetration Will Push Online Sales to $3.9 Trillion by 2025

2025

40%

35%

30%

25%

Internet Sales as a % of Total Retail Sales

Lower-growth levels in the market with weaker presence of e-commerce drivers although these markets are also developing

20%

15%

10%

5%

Croatia

South Africa

Slovenia

Portugal

Hungary

Switzerland

Italy

Latvia

Malaysia

Spain

Thailand

Austria

Slovakia

Japan

Romania

Russia

Norway

Finland

New Zealand

France

India

Greece

Mexico

Hong Kong SAR

Estonia

Sweden

Brazil

Poland

Germany

Lithuania

Canada

Australia

Czech Republic

Belgium

Denmark

Ireland

Singapore

USA

Turkey

Netherlands

United Kingdom

Indonesia

Mainland China

South Korea

0%

Source: Euromonitor, CBRE Research, May 2021. Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.

19


E-COMMERCE

And E-Commerce Related Logistics Demand Will Also Increase Logistics Space

Global

Americas

APAC

EMEA

2020-25 (%)

+138m sq. m.

+38m sq. m.

+72m sq. m.

+28m sq. m.

2020-25 (%)

+61%

+53%

+66%

+63%

Source: CBRE Research 2021, aggregated estimates based on analysis of only the 43 markets included in the analysis. Logistics space estimated increase is only associated to the extra space required for e-commerce use. Our calculation assumes $1 billion of additional e-commerce sales requires an additional 1 million SF of logistics space Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.

20



10%

0%

0%

0% 2021

10%

2020

10%

2019

20%

2018

20%

2017

20%

2016

30%

2015

30%

2021

30%

2020

40%

2019

40%

2018

40%

2017

50%

2016

50%

2015

50%

2021

60%

2020

60%

2019

60%

2018

APAC

2015

Share of Investment by Property Type (Trailing 12 Months, Floating FX)

EMEA

2017

Industrial Investment Volume Surged in 2021

AMERICAS

2016

INVESTMENT MARKET

Office

Retail

Office

Retail

Office

Retail

Hotel

Industrial

Hotel

Industrial

Hotel

Industrial

Multifamily

Others

Mixed Use

Others

Multifamily

Source: Real Capital Analytics, CBRE Research, Q4 2021. Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.

22


COMPOSITE YIELDS BY PROPERTY TYPE %

INVESTMENT MARKET

Long-term Yield Compression

12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5

4.9

4

4.0 3.7

Global Office Yield

Global Retail Yield

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

3

Global Industrial Yield

Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2021. Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.

23


INVESTMENT MARKET

PREFERRED MAINSTREAM PROPERTY SECTOR FOR INVESTMENT IN 2021 (% OF RESPONDENTS)

Investment Interest in Industrial & Logistics Remains High Globally

8% 8%

34% Industrial & Logistics Multifamily Office

24%

Retail Hotels / Resorts

26%

Source: CBRE Global Investor Intentions Survey, 2021 Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.

24



I&L GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK

Amid Record Demand, Rent Growth and Investment Activity Industrial Will Remain Hot in 2022

E-Commerce sales The pandemic introduced a new consumer base to online sales which led to record transaction activity the past six months. Demand from online sales and online returns (reverse logistics) will be robust in 2022. More cold storage space will be needed to support the boom in online grocery shopping.

Safety stock A primary driver of demand in 2022, many occupiers will hold significantly more inventory on-hand. Warehouse stock will be held by wholesalers and 3PLs primarily near transportation hubs and large population centers.

Supply chain diversification In the face of continued supply chain disruptions diversification in supply chain networks will increase. “China Plus One” will be supply sourcing and keeping more inventory in domestic warehouses will be prevalent for the foreseeable future.

Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.

26


I&L GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK

WHEN DO YOU EXPECT SUPPLY-CHAIN DISRUPTION TO END FOR YOUR BUSINESS? 35%

The Global Supply Chain Disruption is Far From Over

30% 25% 20%

Material input shortages and transportation bottlenecks have emerged as very significant business disruption sources for global companies, according to a survey from Oxford Economics. – Despite boosting demand for logistics space, continued supply chain disruption could negatively affect global macroeconomic growth.

15% 10% 5% 0% Q3 2021

Q4 2021

Q1 2022 September 2021

Q2 2022

Q3 2022

Q4 2022

2023 or later

October 2021

Source: Oxford Economics, Global Risk Survey (Q4 2021) Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.

27


I&L GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK

Trends to Watch Automation on the rise Increased demand from industrial occupiers, combined with an extremely tight job market, will lead to the expansion of automated technology and robotics. Since automation will require building amenities found primarily in newly constructed facilities, this will increase the demand for firstgeneration facilities in 2022 and beyond.

ESG to impact industrial Given the need to reduce carbon emissions, the industrial sector will face more regulatory pressure, particularly for energy efficiency. While much of this effort will likely be focused on improving passenger and freight transportation efficiency and reducing manufacturing emissions, warehousing may be impacted as well. Consequently, developers may use more sustainable construction materials like timber instead of concrete and steel.

Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.

28


I&L GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK

GLOBAL INVESTMENT IN WAREHOUSE ROBOTICS ($USD BILLIONS) 80

The Use of Automation and AI Will Accelerate Rapidly to Counter Labor Shortages

70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2018

2019

2020

2021

2022 (f)

2023 (f)

2024 (f)

2025 (f)

Total Investment ($USD) Source: : Interact Analysis, November 2021 Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.

29


I&L GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK

Market Fundamentals Will Lead to More Outsourcing of Distribution in 2022

U.S. 3PL LEASE TRANSACTION MARKET SHARE BY SECTOR

2022 PROJECTION

2021 4%

3%

5% 8%

3PL 31.1%

3PL 35%

9% Third Party Logistics - 31.1% General Retail & Wholesale - 27.7% E-Commerce Only - 11.1% Food & Beverage - 8.7% Manufacturing - 8.1%

11%

Automobiles, Tires, & Parts - 4.5%

28%

Building Materials & Construction - 4.2% Medical - 3.3% Undisclosed - 1.2% Source: CBRE Research 2021 Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.

30



REGIONAL MARKET FUNDAMENTALS

Global View 2021

521.3 MSF (17.1 BSF) +8.8% $178.7B

APAC

EMEA

AMERICAS Net Absorption (Existing Inventory) Y-O-Y Rent Growth Sales Volume

245.4 MSF (3.26 BSF) +7.4% €62.0B

Net Absorption (Existing Inventory) Y-O-Y Rent Growth Sales Volume

98.3 MSF (829 MSF) +3.4% $33.0B

Net Absorption (Existing Inventory) Y-O-Y Rent Growth Sales Volume

Note: Americas includes U.S., Canada and Mexico. EMEA includes UK, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Netherlands, Poland, Belgium, Czech Republic and Slovakia. APAC includes Mainland China Tier I & selected Tier II cities, Greater Tokyo, Greater Osaka, Singapore. Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.

32


REGIONAL MARKET FUNDAMENTALS

The Americas Space Demand Breaks 5-Year Record Net absorption across the region is the highest it’s been on record, at 521.3 million sq. ft. outstripping supply by 200.8 million sq. ft. This drove the average vacancy rate down to 2.7% as of Q4 2021. Supply is struggling to keep up with demand – construction deliveries in the Americas dropped by 5.6% year-over-year. Sharp Rise in Rents The average asking rent in the U.S. increased by 1.9% quarter-over-quarter and 11% year-over-year to a record $9.10 per sq. ft. Canada and Mexico saw rents rise year-over-year by 10.9% and 4.4%, respectively. Rental rate growth is expected to stay in the double digits in the U.S. well into 2023. Investors Still Very Bullish Domestic and foreign Capital continues to seek investment opportunities in the high-performing sector, driving cap rates to historic lows. Investors are now looking at class B space as well as secondary and tertiary markets. Robust demand led to transaction volume increasing 59.5% year-over-year in 2021 to $178.7 billion, another record.

Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.

33


REGIONAL MARKET FUNDAMENTALS

Americas Regional Snapshot Record-breaking fundamentals, significant supply/demand imbalance leads to continued upward pressure on rents and downward pressure on cap rates

U.S. Transaction Activity by Industry, 100K Sq. Ft. +

Completions, Net Absorption And Vacancy (MSF)

Vacancy Rate (%)

4%

3% 1%

10

500

8%

6

300 200

4

100

2

0

0

Completions (L) Vacancy Rate (R)

28%

3PL

General Retail & Wholesale

E-Commerce

Food & Beverage

Manufacturing

Automobiles, Tires, & Parts

Building Materials & Construction

Medical

Undisclosed

US$ Billion 200

Investment Volume

180

15

PA I-78/81 Corridor

3.00% - 4.00%

$5.78

Chicago

3.50% - 3.75%

$5.77

Dallas/Ft. Worth

3.00% - 3.65%

$5.85

Houston

3.50% - 4.00%

$5.16

Atlanta

3.25% - 3.75%

$5.45

Miami

3.00% - 3.25%

$11.91

Los Angeles

2.50% - 3.00%

$15.51

Inland Empire

2.50% - 3.00%

$12.84

Seattle

3.00% - 3.50%

$12.76

Mexico City

7.50% - 8.50%

$6.62

Sao Paulo

8.00% - 9.50%

$5.00

Toronto

3.00% - 3.50%

$12.30

160

10

140

5

120

0

100

Sources: *U.S. markets indicating average asking net rents, other markets indicating prime rents.

80

-5

60

-10

40

CBRE Research, Q4 2021.

20

CBRE National Partners, Q4 2021.

0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 U.S.

Canada

Mexico

Note: Rental rates in USD for U.S. and Mexico, CAD for Canada.

Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.

$10.13

31%

11%

Note: Includes U.S., Canada and Mexico combined stats.

% 20

2.75% - 3.25%

9%

Net Absorption (L)

Average Asking Rents, YOY Growth

New Jersey

5%

8

400

PRIME YIELD RANGE & AVG ASKING RENTS SQ. FT./P.A.*

Note: All investment values in USD.

CBRE Econometric Advisors Q4 2021 Real Capital Analytics, Q4 2021. 34


REGIONAL MARKET FUNDAMENTALS

U.S. Lease Transaction Volume by Size Segment

1200 1014.5 1000

800

713.7

600

– For the first time on record, over 1 billion sq. ft. of lease transactions were signed. – 77% of lease transactions were new leases. 23% were renewals. – The largest gains in lease volume were in transactions under 300,000 sq. ft.

400

322.4 248.9 161.5

200 52.8

214.4

229 166.7 98.5

76.4

116.4 19.8

21.4

0 Under 25K SF

25-100K SF

100-300K SF

2020 Transactions (MSF)

300-700K SF

700-1,200K SF

1,200K+ SF

Total

2021 Transactions (MSF)

Transaction volume includes new leases and renewals in 2021. Source: CBRE Research, 2021.

Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.

35


REGIONAL MARKET FUNDAMENTALS

EMEA Record high take-up and record low vacancy… In EMEA, the sector take-up increased 24.6% in 2021 compared with the previous year. The new record level of 33.3m sqm shows the strength of the occupier demand and has drastically decreased the vacancy rate by more than 100bps to the current average of 3.03%. … stimulated record high annual rental growth The demand and supply imbalance and the hindered supply response due to land scarcity has triggered the highest annual average rental growth in Europe (7.4%). Rents are still far from stabilized, and we forecast the strong levels of rental growth to keep ongoing for the next few years at least. Completions continued to struggle to keep pace Despite the increasing demand, the rate of annual completions (stock increase velocity) has remained stable compared to 2020 at around 6% of the total stock figure. The reason for that is the aforementioned lack of fully consented land and the protracted planning permission processes in most European countries.

Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.

36


REGIONAL MARKET FUNDAMENTALS

European Completions, Take-up And Vacancy

European Average Prime Yields 9%

(Million sqm)

EMEA Regional Snapshot Record level demand dries up vacancy and spurs rental growth

Germany (Munich)

3.00%

€96.0

France (Paris)

3.25%

€70.0

6%

UK (London)

3.50%

£20.00/sq.ft.

6%

5%

Netherlands (Rotterdam)

3.20%

€70.0

4%

4%

Spain (Madrid)

3.90%

€69.0

2%

3%

Italy (Milan)

3.95%

€58.0

Poland (Warsaw)

4.35%

€50.4

Czech Rep (Prague)

4.25%

€72.0

Belgium (Brussels)

3.50%

€62.0

Slovakia (Bratislava)

5.30%

€46.8

35

12%

8%

30

10%

7%

8%

25 20 15 10 5

0%

0

Completions

Take-up

2%

Prime Logistics

Vacancy Rate (RHS)

European Logistics Prime Rents, YOY Growth

Prime Retail

Prime Office

European I&L Investment Volumes

8%

(€ Billion)

Sources: CBRE Research, Q4 2021

7%

70

6%

60

5%

50

4% 3%

30

1%

20

0%

10

-2%

Completions, take-up and vacancy rate are aggregated for the ten countries mentioned above.

40

2%

-1%

0

Q1

Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.

LOGISTICS PRIME YIELD & RENTS/SQM P.A.

Q2

Q3

Q4

37


Investment Volumes Are Soaring EMEA sales increased 48% YoY, led by the UK

Industrials and logistics investment volumes for key EMEA markets Million €

REGIONAL MARKET FUNDAMENTALS

2019

2020

2021

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0

Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2021.

Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.

38


REGIONAL MARKET FUNDAMENTALS

Asia Pacific Leasing Momentum Continued to be Strong Logistics occupiers remained in expansion mode in Q4 2021 on the back of holiday season stockpiling and demand for safety inventory to mitigate supply chain disruption. In addition to robust expansionary demand, CBRE anticipates a rise in flight to quality requirements as more occupiers seek modern logistics facilities to enhance operational efficiency and install automation and other logistics technology. Availability Further Tightened Overall availability further tightened across major markets with the exception of selected China Tier I cities. Shanghai and Guangzhou both recorded higher vacancy rate after seeing the addition of around 70% of their annual pipeline during this quarter. While the addition of new stock will exert short-term pressure on occupancy in 2022, any negative impact will be limited due to current low availability and the unevenly distributed development pipeline. Logistics Remains Sought-after by Investors Industrial assets remained keenly sought after in 2021, with full-year investment volume increasing by 58% y-o-y to US$33 billion. Logistics assets will remain keenly sought after, with 36% of Asia Pacific investors identified as the most preferred sector in 2022. While yield compression is expected to continue in 2022, the pace will be milder as investors adopt a more cautious stance towards the outlook for leasing demand and the future supply pipeline. Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.

39


REGIONAL MARKET FUNDAMENTALS

Completions and Net Absorption

Vacancy Rate (Q4)

PRIME YIELD & RENTS/SQ. FT./P.A.

120

APAC Regional Snapshot Leasing momentum remains robust

Beijing

4.85%

$9.4

Shanghai

4.85%

$8.5

Hong Kong SAR

3.40%

$19.6

Greater Tokyo

3.25%

$13.1

Greater Seoul

5.50%

$9.0

Singapore

6.65%

$14.8

Sydney

3.70%

$11.4

Melbourne

3.90%

$6.4

Brisbane

4.45%

$7.8

Perth

4.80%

$5.7

Auckland

4.10%

$9.9

Chennai

8.25%

$4.5

Pune

8.50%

$4.4

Sydney

100

Shenzhen Auckland

80

Greater Seoul

60

Greater Osaka Melbourne

40

Beijing

20

Hong Kong SAR Greater Tokyo

0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Guangzhou Shanghai

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Annual New Supply

0%

APAC Logistics Prime Rents, YOY Growth 3

2%

4%

6%

8%

Investor Demand, Total Acquisitions $40

10%

$35 2

$30 $25

Sources: CBRE Research, Q4 2021.

$20 1

$15 $10

0

$5 $0

-1 REIT Other Property Company

Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.

Corporation Property Fund

Institutional Private

Note: 1. CBRE tracks net absorption and completions for selected major markets in Asia (Mainland China Tier I & Selected Tier II cities, Greater Tokyo, Greater Osaka and Singapore). 2. Vacancy: Singapore vacancy rate is based by JTC’s official figure, which represents the island-wise warehouse. Vacancy of Auckland is as of Q2 2021. 3. Singapore yield changed to 30 years leasehold en-bloc industrial building, instead of 60 years leasehold strata-titled factory as previously reported. 4. Australia cities’ yield changed to Super Prime industrial assets, instead of Prime industrial as previously reported. 40


REGIONAL MARKET FUNDAMENTALS

Rental Growth Set to Continue

LOGISTICS RENTAL FORECAST 2021E & 2022F

Growth to Accelerate

Turning Point

Growth to slow

Remarks: Vietnam (Southern Region) includes Ho Chi Minh City, Binh Duong, Dong Nai and Long An while Northern region includes Hanoi, Bac Ninh, Hung Yen, Hai Duong and Hai Phong. Australia reports net effective rents of super prime logistics while that of New Zealand is net effective rents of prime logistics. Source: CBRE Research, January 2022 Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.

41


Thank you Gracias

ধন�বাদ

Salamat

ध�वाद

Obrigado

謝謝

Спасибо

감사합니다

Merci

‫תודה‬

APAC

.

‫ﺷﮑرﯾہ‬.

Danke

ありがとう

Terima Kasih

Americas

EMEA

John Morris

Simon Blake

Troy Shortell

Richard Barkham, Ph.D.

john.morris1@cbre.com

Simon.Blake@cbre.com

troy.shortell@cbre.com

richard.barkham@cbre.com

Chris Riley

Jack Cox

Matt Haddon

Henry Chin, Ph.D.

chris.riley@cbre.com

jack.cox@cbre.com

matt.haddon@cbre.com.au

henry.chin@cbre.com.hk

James Breeze

Joerg Kreindl

Liz Hung

Julie Whelan

james.breeze@cbre.com

joerg.kreindl@cbre.com

liz.hung@cbre.com.hk

julie.whelan@cbre.com

Matthew Walaszek

Mark Cartlich

George Wang

Jos Tromp

matthew.walaszek@cbre.com

mark.cartlich@cbre.com

george.wang@cbre.com

jos.tromp@cbre.com

Jennifer Olsen

Tasos Vezyridis

jennifer.olsen@cbre.com

tasos.vezyridis@cbre.com

‫ﺷﻛرا‬

Research Leadership

Pol Marfà Miró pol.marfamiro@cbre.com

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