February 2022
Global Industrial & Logistics Outlook
Agenda
Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.
1
Global Economic Outlook
2
Supply Chain
3
Retail & E-Commerce
4
Investment Market
5
I&L Global Market Outlook
6
Regional Market Fundamentals
2
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
GLOBAL GDP GROWTH: ANNUAL % 10
Global GDP Recovery Continues
8 6 4 2 0
– Strong GDP growth in 2021 as major economies recover following successful vaccination campaigns. – The pace of GDP growth will slow in 2022 from 2021’s exceptionally high levels but remain strong. – GDP growth expected to slow in 2023 for the United States, Euro Area and United Kingdom., while Asia Pacific and China will see elevated levels of growth.
-2 -4 -6 -8 -10 2018
2019
2020 U.S.
Euro Area
2021 U.K.
Asia Pacific
2022
2023
China
Source: CBRE House View, February 2022 Forecast. Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.
4
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Return to Normalcy Driven by Vaccine Rollout
DOSES ADMINISTERED PER ONE HUNDRED PERSONS BY NATION Singapore China Canada Japan Brazil United Kingdom United States European Union Mexico India 30
40
50 Fully Vaccinated
60
70
80
90
100
Partially Vaccinated
Source: Our World in Data, CBRE Research, January 6, 2022. Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.
5
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX >100 = POSITIVE CONFIDENCE 140
Consumer Sentiment Rebounds Slowly
130 120 110
Key Recovery Drivers – Government stimulus, unemployment benefits and swift vaccine rollouts boost confidence from Q2 2020. – Supply chain issues, inflation, and labor crunches for retailers pull down U.S. confidence, however, sales have not been impacted.
100 90 80 70 United States
Asia Pacific Q1 2021
Euro Area Q2 2021
Q3 2021
United Kingdom Q4 2021
Source: The Conference Board, January 2022. Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.
6
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Key Risks to Watch
Faster than expected interest rate hikes
three
At least interest rate raises are expected in the United States in 20221
Rising debt among mainland Chinese developers $100 billion
Around of onshore and offshore bonds must be refinanced by listed mainland Chinese developers by 20232
Prolonged supply chain disruption
63% of respondents expect no improvement until H2 20223
Source: 1 FOMC (Link), December 2021; 2 Bloomberg, CBRE Research October 2021; 3 Oxford Economics Global Risk Survey, October 2021. Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.
7
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
CPI FORECAST (ANNUAL AVERAGE) 5.0%
Inflationary Pressure for Major Economies Varies
Higher but not excessive inflation in 2022
4.0%
Moderating
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
United Kingdom
Mainland China
United States
Euro Zone
Australia
2023F
2022F
2021F
2023F
2022F
2021F
2023F
2022F
2021F
2023F
2022F
2021F
2023F
2022F
2021F
2023F
2022F
2021F
-1.0%
Japan
Source: CBRE House View, January 2022. Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.
8
SUPPLY CHAIN
Key drivers of logistics demand Omnichannel retail
Operational efficiency
Supply chain resilience
– Accelerating growth in ecommerce requires retailers to augment delivery capacity
– Occupiers seek to expand and upgrade to modern facilities to enhance storage efficiency and install tech, especially automation
– Localization of production
– Economic growth and urbanisation support demand in emerging markets
– Diversification of sourcing
– Growing demand for facilities located near points of consumption
Source: CBRE Research, January 2022. Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.
10
SUPPLY CHAIN
Logistics Occupiers Retain Optimistic Outlook Towards Expansion
APAC OCCUPIERS’ PLANS FOR WAREHOUSE PORTFOLIOS IN THE NEXT THREE YEARS
Grow by more than 10%
52%
Grow by less than 10%
26%
Remain the same
Shrink by less than 10%
Shrink by more than 10%
Total
78%
20%
1%
0%
Source: Asia Pacific Logistics Occupier Survey, CBRE Research, September 2021 Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.
11
SUPPLY CHAIN
Ongoing supply chain disruption Manufacturing suspension
Surge in global shipping costs
Insufficient logistics capacity
– Tighter safety protocols or lockdowns
– Uptick in export demand from Asia to Europe and the United States
– Border controls
– Shortages of key materials – Concerns about power supply in mainland China and India
– Delays to port operations and container shortages
– Driver shortages – Record-low vacancy
Source: CBRE Research, January 2022. Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.
12
SUPPLY CHAIN
The Surge in Costs
P&L Line Items Transportation costs
“It takes roughly an 8% increase in fixed facility costs to equal the impact of just a 1% increase in transportation costs,”
Fixed facility costs*
Logistics Costs
Variable facility costs**
Inventory carrying costs
says Joe Dunlap, Managing Director of CBRE Supply Chain Advisory.
Other related costs
45-70% 3-6% 15-25% 12-16% 7-12%
* Includes rent. ** Includes payroll.
Source: CBRE Supply Chain Consulting, Q4 2021 Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.
13
SUPPLY CHAIN
U.S. Supply Chain Costs Transportation costs growing significantly faster than facility costs.
Transportation Costs
Facility Costs
+152.0%
+44.0%
+11.0%
+6.0%
Ocean Shipping Rate
Cass Freight Index - Expenditures
U.S. Industrial Asking Rent Growth
Average Hourly Warehouse Wages
Annual cost increase to ship a 40-foot container from Shanghai to Los Angeles.
Average year-over-year increases in domestic freight costs. Includes all domestic transportation modes (truck, rail, air) .
2021 year-over-year asking rent growth was an all-time record.
Compares the U.S. hourly wage increases for a non-supervisory warehouse worker from December 2020 to December 2021.
Source: Drewry Container Port Index – February 2022
Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.
Source: Cass Information Systems Inc.
Source: CBRE Research, 2021
Source: CBRE Labor Analytics
14
2021-11-01
2021-03-01
2020-07-01
2019-11-01
2019-03-01
2018-07-01
2017-11-01
2017-03-01
2016-07-01
2015-11-01
2015-03-01
2014-07-01
– Put them closer to consumption points
2011-11-01
Refocusing Supply Chains Priorities in the Covid-19 Era
2013-11-01
– From just-in-time to just-in-case principles
1.80 1.70 1.60 1.50 1.40 1.30 1.20 1.10 1.00 0.90 0.80 2013-03-01
Inventory Control
2012-07-01
SUPPLY CHAIN
U.S. Inventory to Sales Ratio
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, November 2021.
Expand Network Resilience and Agility – Diversify sourcing and production bases
Europe North America Mexico
Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.
Central & Eastern Europe (CEE), e.g. Poland
Asia Pacific China Plus One, e.g. Vietnam, Indonesia, India
15
E-COMMERCE
E-Commerce Sales Remain the Same as Post COVID Surge
E-COMMERCE % SHARE OF TOTAL RETAIL SALES Forecast
60%
50%
40%
– The COVID-19 pandemic caused
30%
accelerated e-commerce penetration in all markets. – E-Commerce penetration levels
20%
have moderated following the end of lockdowns but remain above pre-pandemic levels in
10%
most markets.
0% 2015
2016
2017 Australia
2018
2019
Mainland China
2020 Korea
2021
2022
United Kingdom
2023
2024
2025
United States
Source: Euromonitor CBRE Research, February 2022. Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.
17
Lowest Possible Score E-COMMERCE
But E-Commerce Will Not Grow at the Same Pace Around the Globe CBRE E-Commerce Drivers Index: How Prepared is a Market to Support E-Commerce?
Highest Possible Score
South Korea United Kingdom Germany Hong Kong SAR Japan Mainland China Denmark USA Sweden Netherlands Switzerland Singapore New Zealand Norway Belgium France Finland Canada Australia Estonia Czech Republic Spain Indonesia Ireland Greece Italy Portugal Hungary Latvia Russia Slovakia Slovenia Turkey Brazil Austria Romania India Mexico Malaysia Croatia Poland Thailand Lithuania South Africa
Top Scoring Markets
KEY E-COMMERCE DRIVERS Demographics - % of urban population Usage - Digital skills of population - Mobile internet ratio - Dominant e-commerce player Cultural - Credit and Debit card use Infrastructure - Fixed broadband subscriptions 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Source: Euromonitor, CBRE Research, May 2021. Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.
18
2020
E-COMMERCE
50%
E-Commerce penetration will continue to grow in established markets
45%
E-Commerce Penetration Will Push Online Sales to $3.9 Trillion by 2025
2025
40%
35%
30%
25%
Internet Sales as a % of Total Retail Sales
Lower-growth levels in the market with weaker presence of e-commerce drivers although these markets are also developing
20%
15%
10%
5%
Croatia
South Africa
Slovenia
Portugal
Hungary
Switzerland
Italy
Latvia
Malaysia
Spain
Thailand
Austria
Slovakia
Japan
Romania
Russia
Norway
Finland
New Zealand
France
India
Greece
Mexico
Hong Kong SAR
Estonia
Sweden
Brazil
Poland
Germany
Lithuania
Canada
Australia
Czech Republic
Belgium
Denmark
Ireland
Singapore
USA
Turkey
Netherlands
United Kingdom
Indonesia
Mainland China
South Korea
0%
Source: Euromonitor, CBRE Research, May 2021. Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.
19
E-COMMERCE
And E-Commerce Related Logistics Demand Will Also Increase Logistics Space
Global
Americas
APAC
EMEA
2020-25 (%)
+138m sq. m.
+38m sq. m.
+72m sq. m.
+28m sq. m.
2020-25 (%)
+61%
+53%
+66%
+63%
Source: CBRE Research 2021, aggregated estimates based on analysis of only the 43 markets included in the analysis. Logistics space estimated increase is only associated to the extra space required for e-commerce use. Our calculation assumes $1 billion of additional e-commerce sales requires an additional 1 million SF of logistics space Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.
20
10%
0%
0%
0% 2021
10%
2020
10%
2019
20%
2018
20%
2017
20%
2016
30%
2015
30%
2021
30%
2020
40%
2019
40%
2018
40%
2017
50%
2016
50%
2015
50%
2021
60%
2020
60%
2019
60%
2018
APAC
2015
Share of Investment by Property Type (Trailing 12 Months, Floating FX)
EMEA
2017
Industrial Investment Volume Surged in 2021
AMERICAS
2016
INVESTMENT MARKET
Office
Retail
Office
Retail
Office
Retail
Hotel
Industrial
Hotel
Industrial
Hotel
Industrial
Multifamily
Others
Mixed Use
Others
Multifamily
Source: Real Capital Analytics, CBRE Research, Q4 2021. Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.
22
COMPOSITE YIELDS BY PROPERTY TYPE %
INVESTMENT MARKET
Long-term Yield Compression
12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5
4.9
4
4.0 3.7
Global Office Yield
Global Retail Yield
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
3
Global Industrial Yield
Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2021. Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.
23
INVESTMENT MARKET
PREFERRED MAINSTREAM PROPERTY SECTOR FOR INVESTMENT IN 2021 (% OF RESPONDENTS)
Investment Interest in Industrial & Logistics Remains High Globally
8% 8%
34% Industrial & Logistics Multifamily Office
24%
Retail Hotels / Resorts
26%
Source: CBRE Global Investor Intentions Survey, 2021 Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.
24
I&L GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK
Amid Record Demand, Rent Growth and Investment Activity Industrial Will Remain Hot in 2022
E-Commerce sales The pandemic introduced a new consumer base to online sales which led to record transaction activity the past six months. Demand from online sales and online returns (reverse logistics) will be robust in 2022. More cold storage space will be needed to support the boom in online grocery shopping.
Safety stock A primary driver of demand in 2022, many occupiers will hold significantly more inventory on-hand. Warehouse stock will be held by wholesalers and 3PLs primarily near transportation hubs and large population centers.
Supply chain diversification In the face of continued supply chain disruptions diversification in supply chain networks will increase. “China Plus One” will be supply sourcing and keeping more inventory in domestic warehouses will be prevalent for the foreseeable future.
Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.
26
I&L GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK
WHEN DO YOU EXPECT SUPPLY-CHAIN DISRUPTION TO END FOR YOUR BUSINESS? 35%
The Global Supply Chain Disruption is Far From Over
30% 25% 20%
Material input shortages and transportation bottlenecks have emerged as very significant business disruption sources for global companies, according to a survey from Oxford Economics. – Despite boosting demand for logistics space, continued supply chain disruption could negatively affect global macroeconomic growth.
15% 10% 5% 0% Q3 2021
Q4 2021
Q1 2022 September 2021
Q2 2022
Q3 2022
Q4 2022
2023 or later
October 2021
Source: Oxford Economics, Global Risk Survey (Q4 2021) Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.
27
I&L GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK
Trends to Watch Automation on the rise Increased demand from industrial occupiers, combined with an extremely tight job market, will lead to the expansion of automated technology and robotics. Since automation will require building amenities found primarily in newly constructed facilities, this will increase the demand for firstgeneration facilities in 2022 and beyond.
ESG to impact industrial Given the need to reduce carbon emissions, the industrial sector will face more regulatory pressure, particularly for energy efficiency. While much of this effort will likely be focused on improving passenger and freight transportation efficiency and reducing manufacturing emissions, warehousing may be impacted as well. Consequently, developers may use more sustainable construction materials like timber instead of concrete and steel.
Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.
28
I&L GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK
GLOBAL INVESTMENT IN WAREHOUSE ROBOTICS ($USD BILLIONS) 80
The Use of Automation and AI Will Accelerate Rapidly to Counter Labor Shortages
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2018
2019
2020
2021
2022 (f)
2023 (f)
2024 (f)
2025 (f)
Total Investment ($USD) Source: : Interact Analysis, November 2021 Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.
29
I&L GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK
Market Fundamentals Will Lead to More Outsourcing of Distribution in 2022
U.S. 3PL LEASE TRANSACTION MARKET SHARE BY SECTOR
2022 PROJECTION
2021 4%
3%
5% 8%
3PL 31.1%
3PL 35%
9% Third Party Logistics - 31.1% General Retail & Wholesale - 27.7% E-Commerce Only - 11.1% Food & Beverage - 8.7% Manufacturing - 8.1%
11%
Automobiles, Tires, & Parts - 4.5%
28%
Building Materials & Construction - 4.2% Medical - 3.3% Undisclosed - 1.2% Source: CBRE Research 2021 Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.
30
REGIONAL MARKET FUNDAMENTALS
Global View 2021
521.3 MSF (17.1 BSF) +8.8% $178.7B
APAC
EMEA
AMERICAS Net Absorption (Existing Inventory) Y-O-Y Rent Growth Sales Volume
245.4 MSF (3.26 BSF) +7.4% €62.0B
Net Absorption (Existing Inventory) Y-O-Y Rent Growth Sales Volume
98.3 MSF (829 MSF) +3.4% $33.0B
Net Absorption (Existing Inventory) Y-O-Y Rent Growth Sales Volume
Note: Americas includes U.S., Canada and Mexico. EMEA includes UK, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Netherlands, Poland, Belgium, Czech Republic and Slovakia. APAC includes Mainland China Tier I & selected Tier II cities, Greater Tokyo, Greater Osaka, Singapore. Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.
32
REGIONAL MARKET FUNDAMENTALS
The Americas Space Demand Breaks 5-Year Record Net absorption across the region is the highest it’s been on record, at 521.3 million sq. ft. outstripping supply by 200.8 million sq. ft. This drove the average vacancy rate down to 2.7% as of Q4 2021. Supply is struggling to keep up with demand – construction deliveries in the Americas dropped by 5.6% year-over-year. Sharp Rise in Rents The average asking rent in the U.S. increased by 1.9% quarter-over-quarter and 11% year-over-year to a record $9.10 per sq. ft. Canada and Mexico saw rents rise year-over-year by 10.9% and 4.4%, respectively. Rental rate growth is expected to stay in the double digits in the U.S. well into 2023. Investors Still Very Bullish Domestic and foreign Capital continues to seek investment opportunities in the high-performing sector, driving cap rates to historic lows. Investors are now looking at class B space as well as secondary and tertiary markets. Robust demand led to transaction volume increasing 59.5% year-over-year in 2021 to $178.7 billion, another record.
Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.
33
REGIONAL MARKET FUNDAMENTALS
Americas Regional Snapshot Record-breaking fundamentals, significant supply/demand imbalance leads to continued upward pressure on rents and downward pressure on cap rates
U.S. Transaction Activity by Industry, 100K Sq. Ft. +
Completions, Net Absorption And Vacancy (MSF)
Vacancy Rate (%)
4%
3% 1%
10
500
8%
6
300 200
4
100
2
0
0
Completions (L) Vacancy Rate (R)
28%
3PL
General Retail & Wholesale
E-Commerce
Food & Beverage
Manufacturing
Automobiles, Tires, & Parts
Building Materials & Construction
Medical
Undisclosed
US$ Billion 200
Investment Volume
180
15
PA I-78/81 Corridor
3.00% - 4.00%
$5.78
Chicago
3.50% - 3.75%
$5.77
Dallas/Ft. Worth
3.00% - 3.65%
$5.85
Houston
3.50% - 4.00%
$5.16
Atlanta
3.25% - 3.75%
$5.45
Miami
3.00% - 3.25%
$11.91
Los Angeles
2.50% - 3.00%
$15.51
Inland Empire
2.50% - 3.00%
$12.84
Seattle
3.00% - 3.50%
$12.76
Mexico City
7.50% - 8.50%
$6.62
Sao Paulo
8.00% - 9.50%
$5.00
Toronto
3.00% - 3.50%
$12.30
160
10
140
5
120
0
100
Sources: *U.S. markets indicating average asking net rents, other markets indicating prime rents.
80
-5
60
-10
40
CBRE Research, Q4 2021.
20
CBRE National Partners, Q4 2021.
0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 U.S.
Canada
Mexico
Note: Rental rates in USD for U.S. and Mexico, CAD for Canada.
Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.
$10.13
31%
11%
Note: Includes U.S., Canada and Mexico combined stats.
% 20
2.75% - 3.25%
9%
Net Absorption (L)
Average Asking Rents, YOY Growth
New Jersey
5%
8
400
PRIME YIELD RANGE & AVG ASKING RENTS SQ. FT./P.A.*
Note: All investment values in USD.
CBRE Econometric Advisors Q4 2021 Real Capital Analytics, Q4 2021. 34
REGIONAL MARKET FUNDAMENTALS
U.S. Lease Transaction Volume by Size Segment
1200 1014.5 1000
800
713.7
600
– For the first time on record, over 1 billion sq. ft. of lease transactions were signed. – 77% of lease transactions were new leases. 23% were renewals. – The largest gains in lease volume were in transactions under 300,000 sq. ft.
400
322.4 248.9 161.5
200 52.8
214.4
229 166.7 98.5
76.4
116.4 19.8
21.4
0 Under 25K SF
25-100K SF
100-300K SF
2020 Transactions (MSF)
300-700K SF
700-1,200K SF
1,200K+ SF
Total
2021 Transactions (MSF)
Transaction volume includes new leases and renewals in 2021. Source: CBRE Research, 2021.
Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.
35
REGIONAL MARKET FUNDAMENTALS
EMEA Record high take-up and record low vacancy… In EMEA, the sector take-up increased 24.6% in 2021 compared with the previous year. The new record level of 33.3m sqm shows the strength of the occupier demand and has drastically decreased the vacancy rate by more than 100bps to the current average of 3.03%. … stimulated record high annual rental growth The demand and supply imbalance and the hindered supply response due to land scarcity has triggered the highest annual average rental growth in Europe (7.4%). Rents are still far from stabilized, and we forecast the strong levels of rental growth to keep ongoing for the next few years at least. Completions continued to struggle to keep pace Despite the increasing demand, the rate of annual completions (stock increase velocity) has remained stable compared to 2020 at around 6% of the total stock figure. The reason for that is the aforementioned lack of fully consented land and the protracted planning permission processes in most European countries.
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36
REGIONAL MARKET FUNDAMENTALS
European Completions, Take-up And Vacancy
European Average Prime Yields 9%
(Million sqm)
EMEA Regional Snapshot Record level demand dries up vacancy and spurs rental growth
Germany (Munich)
3.00%
€96.0
France (Paris)
3.25%
€70.0
6%
UK (London)
3.50%
£20.00/sq.ft.
6%
5%
Netherlands (Rotterdam)
3.20%
€70.0
4%
4%
Spain (Madrid)
3.90%
€69.0
2%
3%
Italy (Milan)
3.95%
€58.0
Poland (Warsaw)
4.35%
€50.4
Czech Rep (Prague)
4.25%
€72.0
Belgium (Brussels)
3.50%
€62.0
Slovakia (Bratislava)
5.30%
€46.8
35
12%
8%
30
10%
7%
8%
25 20 15 10 5
0%
0
Completions
Take-up
2%
Prime Logistics
Vacancy Rate (RHS)
European Logistics Prime Rents, YOY Growth
Prime Retail
Prime Office
European I&L Investment Volumes
8%
(€ Billion)
Sources: CBRE Research, Q4 2021
7%
70
6%
60
5%
50
4% 3%
30
1%
20
0%
10
-2%
Completions, take-up and vacancy rate are aggregated for the ten countries mentioned above.
40
2%
-1%
0
Q1
Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.
LOGISTICS PRIME YIELD & RENTS/SQM P.A.
Q2
Q3
Q4
37
Investment Volumes Are Soaring EMEA sales increased 48% YoY, led by the UK
Industrials and logistics investment volumes for key EMEA markets Million €
REGIONAL MARKET FUNDAMENTALS
2019
2020
2021
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2021.
Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.
38
REGIONAL MARKET FUNDAMENTALS
Asia Pacific Leasing Momentum Continued to be Strong Logistics occupiers remained in expansion mode in Q4 2021 on the back of holiday season stockpiling and demand for safety inventory to mitigate supply chain disruption. In addition to robust expansionary demand, CBRE anticipates a rise in flight to quality requirements as more occupiers seek modern logistics facilities to enhance operational efficiency and install automation and other logistics technology. Availability Further Tightened Overall availability further tightened across major markets with the exception of selected China Tier I cities. Shanghai and Guangzhou both recorded higher vacancy rate after seeing the addition of around 70% of their annual pipeline during this quarter. While the addition of new stock will exert short-term pressure on occupancy in 2022, any negative impact will be limited due to current low availability and the unevenly distributed development pipeline. Logistics Remains Sought-after by Investors Industrial assets remained keenly sought after in 2021, with full-year investment volume increasing by 58% y-o-y to US$33 billion. Logistics assets will remain keenly sought after, with 36% of Asia Pacific investors identified as the most preferred sector in 2022. While yield compression is expected to continue in 2022, the pace will be milder as investors adopt a more cautious stance towards the outlook for leasing demand and the future supply pipeline. Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.
39
REGIONAL MARKET FUNDAMENTALS
Completions and Net Absorption
Vacancy Rate (Q4)
PRIME YIELD & RENTS/SQ. FT./P.A.
120
APAC Regional Snapshot Leasing momentum remains robust
Beijing
4.85%
$9.4
Shanghai
4.85%
$8.5
Hong Kong SAR
3.40%
$19.6
Greater Tokyo
3.25%
$13.1
Greater Seoul
5.50%
$9.0
Singapore
6.65%
$14.8
Sydney
3.70%
$11.4
Melbourne
3.90%
$6.4
Brisbane
4.45%
$7.8
Perth
4.80%
$5.7
Auckland
4.10%
$9.9
Chennai
8.25%
$4.5
Pune
8.50%
$4.4
Sydney
100
Shenzhen Auckland
80
Greater Seoul
60
Greater Osaka Melbourne
40
Beijing
20
Hong Kong SAR Greater Tokyo
0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Guangzhou Shanghai
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Annual New Supply
0%
APAC Logistics Prime Rents, YOY Growth 3
2%
4%
6%
8%
Investor Demand, Total Acquisitions $40
10%
$35 2
$30 $25
Sources: CBRE Research, Q4 2021.
$20 1
$15 $10
0
$5 $0
-1 REIT Other Property Company
Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.
Corporation Property Fund
Institutional Private
Note: 1. CBRE tracks net absorption and completions for selected major markets in Asia (Mainland China Tier I & Selected Tier II cities, Greater Tokyo, Greater Osaka and Singapore). 2. Vacancy: Singapore vacancy rate is based by JTC’s official figure, which represents the island-wise warehouse. Vacancy of Auckland is as of Q2 2021. 3. Singapore yield changed to 30 years leasehold en-bloc industrial building, instead of 60 years leasehold strata-titled factory as previously reported. 4. Australia cities’ yield changed to Super Prime industrial assets, instead of Prime industrial as previously reported. 40
REGIONAL MARKET FUNDAMENTALS
Rental Growth Set to Continue
LOGISTICS RENTAL FORECAST 2021E & 2022F
Growth to Accelerate
Turning Point
Growth to slow
Remarks: Vietnam (Southern Region) includes Ho Chi Minh City, Binh Duong, Dong Nai and Long An while Northern region includes Hanoi, Bac Ninh, Hung Yen, Hai Duong and Hai Phong. Australia reports net effective rents of super prime logistics while that of New Zealand is net effective rents of prime logistics. Source: CBRE Research, January 2022 Confidential & Proprietary | © 2022 CBRE, Inc.
41
Thank you Gracias
ধন�বাদ
Salamat
ध�वाद
Obrigado
謝謝
Спасибо
감사합니다
Merci
תודה
APAC
.
ﺷﮑرﯾہ.
Danke
ありがとう
Terima Kasih
Americas
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ﺷﻛرا
Research Leadership
Pol Marfà Miró pol.marfamiro@cbre.com
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