CONTENTS 01. OFFICE MARKET 02. RETAIL MARKET 03. INDUSTRIAL MARKET 04. RESIDENTIAL MARKET 05. Q&A
CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
OFFICE MARKET CBRE FORUM 2020 | VIETNAM
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2020 CBRE, INC.
A TALE OF TWO CITIES
HANOI
VS
HO CHI MINH CITY
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research Selected photos retrieved from Bao Thanh Nien, Kenh 14, Vietnamnet, VnExpress July 2nd to July 5th 2021 CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
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FOURTH COVID-19 WAVE IS HITTING HCMC (AS OF 7 JULY 2021) Hanoi and HCMC Google mobility index COVID-19 first wave
40%
Hanoi
HCMC
COVID-19 fourth wave
20% 0% -20% -40%
HCMC daily cases Hanoi daily cases
Source: Google’s mobility index extracted from Google’s COVID 19 Community Mobility Reports. The reference day would shift one day behind if it is a national holiday. The baseline for prior outbreak is the median value for the corresponding day of the week during the 5 week period Jan 3 Feb 6, 2020. Source: Google, CBRE Research, 03 July 2021. CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
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MORE EMPLOYEES ARE RETURNING TO THE OFFICE IN APAC, SEA STALLED Office utilization rate, APAC
APAC Greater China Australia/ New Zealand North Asia South East Asia India 0%
20% No one working in the office
40% <25%
60% 25% - 50%
51% - 75%
80%
100%
>75%
Source: CBRE Asia Pacific, Occupier Survey, June 2021 CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
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OFFICE USE REMAINS ROBUST, BUT THE ROLE IS CHANGING Office workplace vs Remote working compared
Innovation
Individual productivity
Employee engagement
Team productivity 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Remote work is better
Same
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Workplace is better
Source: CBRE Asia Pacific, Occupier Survey, June 2021 CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
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IMPROVING BUSINESS OUTLOOK ACROSS APAC
Expectation on the state of business environment, APAC
Company’s current business conditions, APAC
100%
Expanding
27%
80% Sustained recovery
25%
60% Early stages of recovery
18%
40% Stabilising
20%
19%
Still contractin g
0% Apr 20 Better
Oct 20 About the same
10%
May 21 0%
Worse
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Source: CBRE Asia Pacific, Occupier Survey, June 2021
CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
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CONTRACTION SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER COMPARED TO 2020 Transactions by purpose, Major Transactions Collected and Closed by CBRE, H1 2021 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% HCMC
Hanoi 2019 New Letting
HCMC Expansion
2020 Relocation
Hanoi Renewal
HCMC Consolidation
Hanoi H1 2021 6M Contraction
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q2 2021.
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BOTH OCCUPIERS AND LANDLORDS ARE MORE ADAPTIVE TO CURRENT SITUATION 2020
Occupiers
H1 2021
Contract, surrender unused space to save cost 17% of transactions in Hanoi and 27% of transactions in HCMC
Contract, surrender unused space to save cost ? 0% of transactions in Hanoi and 3% of transactions in HCMC
Work from home
Work from home
Provide incentives (rent free period, rent reduction) 10% - 50% depending on industry
Provide incentives ? (rent free period, rent reduction) Few or no short-term incentives
March & April 2020
Landlords
$
CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
Since May in HCMC
*except buildings under lockdown
$
Reduce asking rents 1% - 5% on average
10
Reduce asking rents ? Reduced or flat escalations at renewal
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
MARKET SNAPSHOT GRADE A OFFICE MARKET H1 2021
HCMC
0
New projects in H1 2021 90,000 sqm in Hanoi in H2 2021
TOTAL SUPPLY
475,000
NLA (sqm)
sqm NLA
HANOI 528,000
18 projects ASKING RENT*
US$41.6
US$/sqm/month
VACANCY RATE
12.2%
6.4% y-o-y
0.4 ppt y-o-y
sqm NLA
21 projects
US$26.9
18.9%
3.0% y-o-y
11.3 ppt y-o-y
(%)
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q2 2021.
CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
Note: Asking rent is quoted on NLA, excluding VAT & Service charges.
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MARKET SNAPSHOT GRADE B OFFICE MARKET H1 2021
HCMC
1
New project in H1 2021 in HCMC 90,000 sqm in Hanoi and 24,000 sqm in HCMC in H2 2021
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q2 2021.
CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
TOTAL SUPPLY
958,000
NLA (sqm)
sqm NLA
HANOI 997,000
69 projects ASKING RENT*
US$25.1
US$/sqm/month
VACANCY RATE
9.1%
3.0% y-o-y
4.3 ppt y-o-y
sqm NLA
72 projects
US$13.9
11.6%
1.5% y-o-y
0.6 ppt y-o-y
(%)
Note: Asking rent is quoted on NLA, excluding VAT & Service charges.
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THE WORST IS OVER? HCMC & Hanoi Office market, Net absorption 50,000 40,000
Sqm
30,000 20,000 10,000 0 -10,000 -20,000 Q1
Q2
Q3 2018
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2019 HCMC
Q1
Q2
Q3 2020
Q4
Q1
Q2 2021
Hanoi
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q2 2021.
CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
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CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
VACANCY RATES DROPPED, BUT WILL TAKE TIME TO REACH PRE-COVID LEVEL
25%
40
20%
30
15%
20
10%
10
5%
-
0% 2018
2019
2020
H1 2021 Q2 2021
50
25%
40
20%
30
15%
20
10%
10
5%
0
0% 2018
2019
2020
Vacancy rate
50
Asking rents (US$/sqm/month)
Hanoi Office, Market Performance by Grade
Vacancy rate
Asking rents (US$/sqm/month)
HCMC Office, Market Performance by Grade
H1 2021 2021 Q2
Grade A - Rent
Grade B - Rent
Grade A - Rent
Grade B - Rent
Grade A - Vacancy rate
Grade B - Vacancy rate
Grade A - Vacancy rate
Grade B - Vacancy rate
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q2 2021. Note: Asking rent is quoted on NLA, excluding VAT & Service charges. CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
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HIGH DEMAND FROM TMT AND BANKING/FINANCE SECTORS Transactions by Industry, Major Transactions Collected and Closed by CBRE, H1 2021
Expectation on change of real estate portfolio over the next 3 years, APAC All sectors
TMT
TMT
Banking/Finance/Insurance
Finance
Manufacturing
Professional services
Logistics
Life Science
Retail/Trading 0% HCMC
10%
20%
30%
0%
40%
Hanoi
Unsure
20%
Decrease
40%
60%
No change
80%
100%
Increase
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q2 2021.
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HYBRID WORK MODEL WILL BE THE NEW NORM Anticipated of remote working’s frequency in steady state situation, APAC 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Work in office all the time
1-2 days/month
1day/week or less
Q3 2020
Up to 3 days/week
4-5 days/week Work remotely all the time
Q2 2021
Source: CBRE Asia Pacific, Occupier Survey, June 2021
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MORE OPEN TOWARD DESK SHARING RATIO APAC based companies
Industries that are quick to adapt Life Sciences Finance Technologies Business Services Source: CBRE Asia Pacific, Occupier Survey, June 2021
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DEVELOPERS ARE FOCUSING ON GREEN CREDENTIALS HANOI
HCMC
Less water consumed
Capital Place
Techno Park Tower (In progress)
President Place
Etown Central
Mapletree Business Center
Less energy consumed
CO2
Lower emissions Lancaster Luminaire (in progress)
36 Cat Linh (in progress)
Deutsches Haus
Friendship Tower
Phu My Hung Tower
Less waste Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q2 2021.
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SUPPLY GROWTH TO ACCELERATE FROM H2 2021 IN HANOI 2021 ~180,000 sqm
Hanoi Office, notable future projects 1
5
Techno Park Tower (A) Gia Lam,
9
NLA: ~90,000 sqm
3
West
8 3
10
6
Midtown 7
Lancaster Luminaire (A) Dong Da NLA: 20,600 sqm
BRG Tower (B) Hoan Kiem
NLA: 5,000 sqm
36 Cat Linh (B) Ba Dinh NLA: 16,000 sqm
9
8
5
Epic Tower (B) Cau Giay NLA: 25,000 sqm
Lotte Mall Hanoi (A) Tay Ho NLA: 45,000 sqm
10
2 1
Intracom Riverside (B) Dong Anh NLA: 22,000 sqm
The Valley Smart Building (B) Nam Tu Liem NLA: 39,500 sqm
(*) Buildings are partially owner occupied. Listed NLA is area available to rent.
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Google Images, Q2 2021 CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
HUD Tower (B) Thanh Xuan NLA: 48,000 sqm
4
Vinacomin Tower (B) Cau Giay NLA: 38,000 sqm
4 CBD
6
2
2022 onward 150,000+ sqm 7
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CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
WHILE ONLY MODERATE SUPPLY GROWTH EXPECTED IN HCMC HCMC Office, notable future projects 2021 45,418 sqm
1 6
1
2022 onwards ~150,000+ sqm
5
2
6
4 2
8 7 AP Tower (B) Binh Thanh NLA: ~10,000 sqm
4
3
The Graces (B) District 7 NLA: 8,295 sqm
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Pearl 5 Tower (B) District 3 NLA: 10,944 sqm
Saigon First House (B) District 3 NLA: 15,348 sqm
Cobi Tower (B) District 7 NLA: 27,127 sqm
7
One Central (A) District 1 NLA: 36,000 sqm
E-town 6 (A) Tan Binh GFA: 40,000 sqm
8
Prime A District 2 NLA: 52,000 sqm
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, REIC Images, Google Images, Q2 2021 CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
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MARKET OUTLOOK MUCH DEPENDS ON THE ROLL-OUT OF VACCINES AND SUPPLY PIPELINE
24%
30
18%
20
12%
10
6%
-
0% 2018
2019
2020
2021F
Asking rent (US$/sqm/month)
40
Forecast
50
30%
Vacancy Rate
Forecast
50 Asking rent (US$/sqm/month)
Hanoi Office, Performance Outlook
40
24%
30
18%
20
12%
10
6%
-
0% 2018
2022F
30%
2019
2020
2021F
Vacancy rate
HCMC Office, Performance Outlook
2022F
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q2 2021. Note: Asking rent is quoted on NLA, excluding VAT & Service charges. CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
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FORECAST TRENDS
Economic outlook to remain positive despite COVID-19
CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
Vaccine visa and increasing vaccine rate will lessen the impact of COVID-19
Both occupiers and landlords are applying strategies to be more resilient
Green and wellness credentials are in the spotlight as occupiers’ adoption of Environment, Social & Governance (ESG) increase
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RETAIL MARKET CBRE FORUM 2020 2021 | VIETNAM
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2020 2021 CBRE, INC.
THE PANDEMIC HAS CHANGED THE NATURE OF SALES F R O M
TO
Retail and Services Turnover H1 2021
4.9%
y-o-y (vs. 11.8% in 2019)
• Show more supports
Landlords
Wait and See mode
• Retain existing tenants
Retail Business to be Closed
26%
y-o-y
• Stabilize occupancy rate Vacant Spaces, NLA Sqm
• Negotiations
Retailers
CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
• Cost cutting • Generate Cash
• Streamline Operation • Expansion strategy • Vaccination
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43% vs. Q1 2020 for HCMC 72% vs. Q1 2020 for Hanoi Rent Support Pre-lockdown: 20%-50% depends on categories, malls
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
Mobility Index, Retail & Recreations 0
UNEXPECTED NEW WAVE WORRIED CONSUMERS
-10 -20 -30 -40 -50
-36%
-60
Vietnam (vs. -16% in Q4 2020)
-70 HCMC: worse than first wave
-80
VS
M
-8%
Fe b
GROCERY & PHARMACY
-2 0 ar -2 Ap 0 r2 M 0 ay -2 Ju 0 n20 Ju l-2 Au 0 g2 Se 0 p2 O 0 ct2 N 0 ov -2 De 0 c2 Ja 0 n2 Fe 1 b2 M 1 ar -2 Ap 1 r2 M 1 ay -2 Ju 1 n21
-90
HCMC
WORKPLACE
-14%
VS
PUBLIC
-28%
VS
Hanoi
Note: Google’s mobility index extracted from Google’s COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports, as of monthly average between 1 Mar 2020 and 15 May 2021. The baseline for prior outbreak is the median value for the corresponding day of the week during the 5-week period Jan 3-Feb 6, 2020. Mobility trends for places like restaurants, cafes, shopping centers theme parks, museums, libraries, and movie theaters. Source: Google, Data as of 20 May 2021
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VIETNAM CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX HAS NOT IMPROVED SINCE THE FIRST WAVE
Retail Sales (y-o-y)
Monthly Retail sales growth, y-o-y
Consumer Confidence Index
60%
150
40%
120
20%
90
0%
60
-20%
30
-40%
0
Ju n20 Ju l -2 Au 0 g20 Se p20 O ct2 N 0 ov -2 D 0 ec -2 0 Ja n21 Fe b2 M 1 ar -2 1 Ap r-2 M 1 ay -2 1 Ju n21
Vietnam
Vietnam
South Korea
Japan
China
2019
Singapore
First Wave
2020
Japan
China
Q1 2021
Singapore
Source: Tradingeconomics, June 2021
Source: GSO of Asian countries, June 2021 CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
South Korea
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CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
VIETNAM RETAIL SNAPSHOT H1 2021
HCMC SUPPLY NLA (sqm)
ASKING RENT (*) US$/sqm/month
VACANCY RATE (%)
Hanoi
1,068,128
SUPPLY
sqm NLA New Supply: 1 in Non-CBD
CBD US$ 137
Non-CBD US$ 34
1.2% y-o-y
-5.2% y-o-y
CBD
Non-CBD
1.9%
14.6%
0.0 ppt y-o-y
NLA (sqm)
Snapshot H1 2021
ASKING RENT (*) US$/sqm/month
1,004,481
sqm NLA New Supply: 0
CBD US$ 102
Non-CBD US$ 29
-1.7% y-o-y
-3.8% y-o-y
CBD VACANCY RATE (%)
-1.6 ppt y-o-y
10.8% 10.1 ppt y-o-y
Non-CBD 14.6% 4.8 ppt y-o-y
Note: Asking Rent is average of Ground Floor and First floor, excluding of Service Charge and 10% VAT. Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2021 CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
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UNCERTAIN PANDEMIC CONTROL MEASURES POSTPONED MARKET RECOVERY
Vacancy Rate 2019 – Q2 2021
COVID – 19
COVID – 19 (Wave 3)
COVID – 19 (Wave 2)
COVID – 19 (Wave 4)
18% 16%
Vacancy Rate
14%
Some tenants support policies in HCMC:
12% 10%
• 10-50% rent support in May
8% 6%
• Free rent in June
4% 2% 0% Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2019
Q3 2020
HCMC-Vacancy Rate
Q4
Q1
Q2 2021
Hanoi - Vacancy Rate
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q2 2021 CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
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ROBUST M&A AND FRANCHISE ACTIVITIES IN VIETNAM
“SK Group invests 410 million USD for a 16.26% stake in VinCommerce”
“Masan partners Phuc Long to develop Phuc Long Kiosks at WinMart+ stores nationwide” Masan acquired 20% of Phuc Long and aim to open 1,000 kiosks in 24 months.
Source: Tuoi Tre, Thanh Nien, April 2021
“Alibaba, Baring Private Equity Asia consortium complete $400mm investment in The CrownX”
Source: VIR, May 2021
Source: VietnamNews, June 2021
Nova F&B franchises: JUMBO Seafood (Singapore), Crystal Jade Palace (Singapore), Gloria Jean's Coffees (Australia), Mango Tree (Thailand), Lotteria (Korea)….. Source: Vnexpress, May 2021
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RETAIL NEW ENTRANTS TO VIETNAM EXPECTED TO BE LOW THIS YEAR 2020 new entrants
2021: expansion & potential
Others
Fashion & Accessories
F&B
2019 new entrants
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SOME EXPANSION PLANS NEED MORE THAN ONE TYPE OF FORMAT
RESIDENTIAL PODIUM/SHOPHOUSE
SHOPPING CENTRE Challenges • Slow footfall recovery despite restriction uplift • Lack of tourist activity Opportunities • Good locations for entrants/expansions • Professionalism and providing various options • Occupancy rate can recover quickly
CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
Challenges • Fewer options for different categories • Quality of the retail property Opportunities • Near resident areas for delivery during work from home • Good for grocery-anchored or mixed stores • Less strict lease terms, termination terms, etc.
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IN-STORE SALES DECLINED IN MOST CATEGORIES
Vietnam in-store sales growth, y-o-y
Vietnam E-commerce sales growth, y-o-y
30%
100%
20%
80%
Growth Projection of Online Sales by 2025 (times growth vs 2020) 3.11
20%
-20%
0% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Apparel & Footwear
Electronics
Health & Beauty
Home & Garden Care
1.8
Electronics
-10%
Apparel & Footware
40%
E-c ommerce
0%
2.20 2.15
Food & Beverage
2.40
2.06
Health & Beauty
60%
Home Care
10%
Source: Euromonitor, retrieved as of June 2021 CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
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SECTOR PERFORMANCE VARIES IN 2021
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STRONG PIPELINE IN HANOI AS MARKET ANTICIPATES A COMEBACK ONCE THE PANDEMIC IS BROUGHT UNDER CONTROL Hanoi: Over 300,000 sqm in the pipeline
Hanoi Retail, Market Performance Outlook
2022 – 2024 Forecast
FLC Twin Towers NLA:14,000 sqm
Vincom Mega Mall Smart City NLA : 49,000 sqm
The Zei NLA : 9,000 sqm
Park City NLA : 12,000 sqm
Hinode City Toshin – Starlake NLA : 10,000 sqm NLA: 17,000 sqm
Lotte Mall Hanoi NLA : 72,000 sqm
Aeon Mall Hoang Mai NLA : 84,000 sqm
Asking Rents (USD/sqm/m)
120
14%
100
12% 80
10%
60
8% 6%
40
4% 20
2%
0
0% 2020
Project @ NTH Str. NLA : 55,000 sqm CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
16%
Upcoming Vincom Mega Malls
Vacancy Rate (%)
2021
2021Q2
2021F
2022F
2023F
Rental Rate - CBD
Rental Rate - Non CBD
Vacancy Rate - CBD
Vacancy Rate - Non CBD
Source: CBRE Research, Data as of June 2021.34 For Hanoi and HCMC, data is updated till Jul 2021.
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HCMC: MUCH EXPECTATION FOR THE OPENINGS OF MAJOR PROJECTS IN THE CBD HCMC’S NEW SUPPLY 2022-2023
Over 200,000 sqm in the pipeline
Ho Chi Minh Retail, Market Performance Outlook
Central Premium Mall 24,000 sqm District 8
Vincom Grand Park 48,000 sqm District 9
160
16%
140
14%
120
12%
100
10%
80
8%
60
6%
40
4%
20
2%
-
0%
2020
One Central 33,700 sqm District 1 CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
Saigon One 12,000 sqm District 1
Sun Tower 20,000 sqm District 1
Vacancy Rate
Socar Mall 35,000 sqm District 2
Rental Rate (USD/sqm/month)
Forecast
2021 Q2
2021
2022
2023
Rental Rate - CBD
Rental Rate - Non-CBD
Vacancy Rate - CBD
Vacancy Rate - Non-CBD
Note: Asking Rent is average of Ground Floor and First floor, excluding of Service Charge and 10% VAT. Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2021 35
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FACTORS THAT BOOST OUR CONFIDENCE
Physical stores: Consolidation is inevitable, but store upgrades will continue
CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
Omni-Chanel/Online enhancement is Crucial Customer engagement: Time to create new initiatives
For landlords: Consideration to adopt various schemes such as TOS, CAPEX support, Franchise, Partnership Local tenants is a focus
Vaccination 7075% population in 2021 Hanoi and HCMC can be the first to recover
Pandemic control measures from the Government
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INDUSTRIAL MARKET CBRE FORUM 2020 2021 | VIETNAM
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INDUSTRIAL LAND MARKET SNAPSHOT 6M 2021
Ha
NORTH
14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0
≈17,900 ha Leasable Industrial Land
≈69.0%
Ha
Hai Phong
SOUTH
Bac Ninh
Hanoi
Hung Yen
Hai Others Duong (*)
14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0
Average Occupancy Rate
≈30,000 ha Leasable Industrial Land Binh Dong BR-VT HCMC Long Others Duong Nai An (*) Total land area
Land for lease
≈75% Average Occupancy Rate
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research & Consulting, Q2 2021. (*) Other provinces in Northern Vietnam include Thai Nguyen, Vinh Phuc, Quang Ninh, Ha Nam, Nam Dinh, Ninh Binh, Bac Giang Other provinces in Southern Vietnam include Tay Ninh, Binh Thuan, Binh Phuoc
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READY-BUILT FACTORY & WAREHOUSE MARKET SNAPSHOT Q2 2021
SOUTH
NORTH
WH SUPPLY Q2 2021
≈1.1
mil sqm
RBF SUPPLY
≈2.3
4.4% y-o-y RBF : 1.9% y-o-y
Q2 2021
Q2 2021
mil sqm
Q2 2021
WH:
SUPPLY GROWTH
mil sqm
RBF SUPPLY
≈3.2
Q2 2021
mil sqm
WH SUPPLY
≈3.5
SUPPLY GROWTH
46% 10% CAGR 2021-2023E
Q2 2021
10% y-o-y RBF : 8% y-o-y WH:
22% 14%
New supply increases significantly in major industrial regions
CAGR 2021-2023E
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research & Consulting, Q2 2021. Note: Northern RBF supply is calculated for Bac Ninh, Hai Duong, Hai Phong, Thai Nguyen, Vinh Phuc, Hung Yen, Bac Giang. Northern WH supply is calculated for Bac Ninh, Hanoi, Hai Duong, Hai Phong, Hung Yen. Southern RBF and WH supply is calculated for HCMC, Binh Duong, Dong Nai, Long An.
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M O D E R AT E R E N TA L E S C A L AT I O N F O R I N D U S T R I A L L A N D W H I L E R E N T S R E M A I N E D S TA B L E F O R F A C T O R Y A N D W A R E H O U S E Warehouse/Ready-built factory asking rents, Q2 2021
Up 5% - 10% y-o-y in good location industrial 12
300
10
Hung Yen
Hai Phong
Hai Duong
Bac Giang
Hanoi
Maximum rent
Thai Nguyen
Minimum rent
Bac Ninh
HCMC
Thai Nguyen
Nghe An
Ha Nam
Hung Yen
Hai Phong
Hai Duong
Bac Giang
Ha Noi
Bac Ninh
Maximum rent
Quang Ngai
Minimum rent
Quang Ngai
Quang Nam
Danang
Tay Ninh
BR-VT
0
Dong Nai
0 Long An
2 Binh Duon g
50
Quang Nam
4
Da Nang
100
6
Tay Ninh
150
8
BR-VT
200
Stable asking rent
Dong Nai
250
Warehouse
Stable asking rent
Binh Duong
US$/sqm/month
350
HCMC
US$/sqm/remaining leasing term
parks in Binh Duong, Dong Nai, Long An
Ready-built Factory
Long An
Industrial land asking rents, Q2 2021
Note: Asking rent of industrial land and ready-built factory/warehouse is exclusive of VAT and Management/Service charge. The asking industrial land rent is quoted on remaining lease term of industrial parks. Normally, the remaining lease term is from 30 – 45 years. Source: CBRE Vietnam Research & Consulting, Q2 2021. CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
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INFRASTRUCTURE EXPANSION & IMPROVEMENT EXPANSION OF EXPRESSWAY TO BORDER AND COASTAL AREAS IN THE NORTH H
Chi Lang City
a N
China
oi –
Thai Nguyen City
y Ex pr es sw a n Expre
• Hai Phong – Ha Long
i
8
CONSTRUCTION OF VAN DON - MONG CAI EXPRESSWAY is expected to complete in 2022.
Ha Long City
Hai Phong – Ha Long Expressway
Hai Duong Hung Yen
Hai Phong City
Ha Noi – Ha i Phong Expressway
Hai Phong
Ha Nam
ay ress w
Thai Binh
Exp
Phu Ly City
• Van Don Ninh Binh City
Nam Dinh
Major Sea Port/ River Port International Airport
Ha i
• Cat Bi
Major Sea Ports/ River Ports:
Ca
National Road 5
Pho ng
• Noi Bai
Ha Noi
–
g on
y
Ha Long – Van Don Expressway
Hai Duong City
ssway
International Airports:
nal Ro ad 1
Nin hB inh –
• Huu Nghi – Chi Lang
Natio
Bac Ninh
n Do
M
a sw es pr Ex
Quang Ninh
Lang – Hoa Lac Expressway
Expre h Binh i – Nin
• Ninh Binh – Hai Phong
n Va
Bac Ninh City
Ha No
• Van Don – Mong Cai
Bac Giang
Bac Giang City
ssway
• Ha Noi – Hai Phong
Under construction/ planning expressways:
La ng
Nguye
Vinh Phuc City
• Ha Noi – Thai Nguyen
• Ha Long – Van Don
i–
Vinh Phuc
So
i i – Tha
y
• Ha Noi – Ninh Binh
n
Ha No
a sw es pr Ex
• Ha Noi – Lao Cai
No
ai C
• Lang – Hoa Lac
Ha
o La
Completed expressways:
Thai Nguyen
Industrial park
• Hai Phong Port Complex
Major city
• Quang Ninh Port Source: CBRE Vietnam Research & Consulting, Q2 2021.
CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
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CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
INFRASTRUCTURE EXPANSION & IMPROVEMENT EXPANSION OF EXPRESSWAY TO THE WEST AND COASTAL AREAS IN THE SOUTH
Completed expressways:
Binh Phuoc
• HCMC – Long Thanh – Dau Giay • HCMC – Trung Luong
Under construction/planning expressways: • Ben Luc – Long Thanh
Trung Luong - My Thuan Expressway in Apr 2021
Tay Ninh
Long Thanh International Airport in Mar 2021
Dau Giay – Phan Thiet in Mar 2021
• HCMC – Moc Bai • Bien Hoa – Vung Tau
Vinh Hao - Phan Thiet
Binh Duong
• Trung Luong – My Thuan • Dau Giay - Phan Thiet • Vinh Hao - Phan Thiet
Binh Thuan
Moc Bai - HCMC
• Ring Road no.3 of HCMC
Thu Dau Mot
International Airports:
Dong Nai Dau Giay - Phan Thiet
Bien Hoa C – Da Lo u ng G Th ia y anh
Major Sea Ports/ River Ports:
International Airport
H –
Ben Luc – Long Thanh
oa ng Vu
HCMC - Trung Luong
u Ta
• Long An International Port
Long An
Major Sea Port/ River Port
en
• Hiep Phuoc Port Complex
Bi
• Cat Lai Port
HCMC
HC M
• Long Thanh (Future)
• Cai Mep Port Complex
Industrial park
BR - VT
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research & Consulting, Q2 2021.
Trung Luong - My Thuan
CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
Phan Thiet
–
• Tan Son Nhat
Vung Tau
42
Major city
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
LOCAL EXPANSION
FACTORY EXPANSION OF ANCHOR TENANTS TO ACCOMMODATE BUSINESS GROWTH
Emerging industries
Active industries
Logistics
Packaging
Automotive
Furniture
Medical equipment
Electronics
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research & Consulting, Q2 2021. CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
43
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
PRODUCT SHIFTING FROM CHINA TO SEA REMAINS MAINSTREAM Tighten regulation
Rising labor cost
Unexpected events
Benefits of FTAs & Incentives
The COVID-19 and trade tension accelerate manufacturing relocation Source: CBRE Vietnam Research & Consulting, Q2 2021. CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
44
Bordering location
Significant improvement of infrastructure CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
LOGISTICS DRIVES DEMAND FOR INDUSTRIAL LAND LAND FOR LOGISTICS DEVELOPMENT IS THE MOST SOUGHT AFTER INDUSTRIAL PROPERTY Industrial leasing enquiries by property type
Industrial leasing enquiries by land type, 6M 2021
6M 2021 2020
33%
67%
Industrial Land
WH
Logistics land
RBF
Manufacturing land
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research & Consulting, 6M 2021. Note: The provided information is based on industrial leasing enquiries recorded by CBRE from January to June 2021. CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
45
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
APAC AGGREGATE BASE ON THE TOTAL AREA OF LEASING % OF LEASING TRANSACTIONS Y-T-D
MAJOR RBF & WH NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS, VIETNAM Transaction
Logistics (WH) Retailer (WH) 3PL (WH) 3PL (WH) Furniture (WH) Electric components (RBF) Manufacturing (RBF) Food processing (RBF) Shoes (RBF) Plastic (RBF) Unknown (RBF) 3PL (WH) Logistics (WH) Retailer (WH) E-commerce (WH) Manufacturing (RBF) Logistics (WH)
Others 15% Manufacturing
6%
40% 2020 (E-commerce + 3PL: 62.8%)
Retail, F&B
3PL
14%
25% E-commerce
% of Warehouse Leasing Transactions y-t-d (APAC aggregate base on the total sqm)
HCMC HCMC Dong Nai Dong Nai Binh Duong HCM Dong Nai Long An Long An Long An Long An Bac Ninh Bac Ninh Bac Ninh Bac Ninh Thai Nguyen Hai Phong
Size (sqm)
25,000 10,000 5,000 17,000 40,000 5,000 5,000 20,000 2,700 2,700 5,000 46,000 25,000 20,000 14,000 14,500 14,000
Note: The provided information is based on industrial leasing transactions recorded by CBRE in 6M 2021.
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research & Consulting, 2021. APAC reports 2020
CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
Location
46
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
INDUSTRIAL LAND EXPANSION OF EMERGING REGIONS – THE NORTH Thai Nguyen H
Chi Lang City
a N
China
oi –
Thai Nguyen City
o La n Va
n Expre
Bac Giang City
ssway
Natio
Lang – Hoa Lac Expressway
nal Ro ad 1
8 Ha Long City
Hung Yen
Thai Binh Quang Ninh
Thai Binh
Major Sea Port/ River Port
Ninh Binh City
Nam Dinh
International Airport Industrial park Major city Source: CBRE Vietnam Research & Consulting, Q2 2021.
CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
47
Occupancy rate
Ha Nam
ay
Hai Phong
Phu Ly City
Ha Nam
250 200 150 100 50 0 Tier-1
Tier-2
100%
ress w
Bac Giang
300
Average occupancy rate, Northern region
Exp
Hai Duong
Hai Phong
Pho ng
Thai Nguyen
Asking industrial land rent, Northern region
Northern Region
Ha i
Bac Ninh
Hung Yen
Hai Phong City
y
Ha Noi – Ha i Phong Expressway
Nin hB inh –
Vinh Phuc
Hai Phong – Ha Long Expressway
Hai Duong
w ay Express
Hanoi
h Binh i – Nin
Tier-2
National Road 5
Ha No
Tier-1
C
Ha Long – Van Don Expressway
Hai Duong City
Ha Noi
g on
Quang Ninh
Bac Ninh City
Bac Ninh
n Do
–M
a ssw re xp
USD/sqm/remaining term
So La ng i– No
Vinh Phuc City
Bac Giang
Ha
y
i Nguye i – Tha
n
Ha No
a sw es pr Ex
Ex pr es sw a
y
ai C
Vinh Phuc
E ai
80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Tier-1
Tier-2
Northern Region CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
INDUSTRIAL LAND EXPANSION OF EMERGING REGIONS – THE SOUTH
Tier-2
HCMC
Tay Ninh
Binh Duong
Binh Phuoc
Dong Nai
Ba Ria – Vung Tau
Long An
Binh Thuan
USD/sqm/remaining term
Tier-1
Asking industrial land rent, Southern region
Binh Phuoc Tay Ninh
350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
Vinh Hao - Phan Thiet
Tier-1
Tier-2
Southern Region Average occupancy rate, Southern region
Tien Giang
100%
Binh Thuan Moc Bai - HCMC
Thu Dau Mot
Dong Nai Dau Giay - Phan Thiet
Bien Hoa
80%
Occupancy rate
Binh Duong
60% 40% 20% 0%
Phan Thiet C – Da Lo u ng G Th ia y anh
–
Tier-1
Southern Region
Bi
HC M
HCMC
en
Major Sea Port/ River Port
H –
Ben Luc – Long Thanh
oa
Long An
Tier-2
ng Vu u Ta
HCMC - Trung Luong
BR - VT
International Airport Industrial park
Trung Luong - My Thuan
Major city CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
Vung Tau
48
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research & Consulting, Q2 2021.
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
NEW DEVELOPERS ARE EYEING ON THE MARKET
Frasers Property Vietnam unveils first industrial development May 17, 2021 | 09:18
CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
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CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH-RISE WAREHOUSE AND FACTORY IN THE CONTEXT OF LIMITED INDUSTRIAL LAND IN URBAN AREAS
High-rise Factory
9%
91%
◼ High-rise RBF ◼ Low-rise RBF
High-rise RBF supply proportion, Q2 2021 5%
High-rise Warehouse 95%
◼ High-rise and Builtto-suit warehouse ◼ Normal warehouse
High-rise WH supply proportion, Q2 2021 Image source: BW Industrial, TLS, Tan Thuan EPZ, CBRE. CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research & Consulting, Q2 2021. 50
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
MARKET OUTLOOK
NEW INVESTORS AND
MANUFACTURING EXPANSION
DESPITE THE 4TH WAVE OF
DEVELOPERS ACTIVELY
OF EXISTING TENANTS
COVID-19, MARKET SENTIMENT
Land search activities to expand outside
TO REMAIN STRONG
ACQUIRE PROPERTIES VIA M&A. Industrial properties in emerging areas/ underperforming assets are
existing major industrial regions
Supply growth expected to slow down while demand to remain stable
prominent targets.
CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
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CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
RESIDENTIAL MARKET CBRE FORUM 2020 2021 | VIETNAM
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2020 2021 CBRE, INC.
THE PANDEMIC HAS CHANGED THE NATURE OF RESIDENTIAL SALES Number of new launch H1 2021
H1 2020
Developer
Local buyers Foreign buyers
Wait and See mode
Wait and See mode
H1 2021 • Innovative sales policies • New product features • Application of technology in sales and marketing activities • Adapting to the “new normal” – work from home • Steady fundamental demand
• Pending vaccine and borders opening • Maintained interest in Vietnam market
▼ 9% y-o-y in HCMC (5,864 units) ▲10% y-o-y in Hanoi (7,947 units) Number of sold units H1 2021
▲ 28% ▲ 20%
y-o-y in HCMC (7,374 units) y-o-y in Hanoi (8,073 units)
Absorption Rate*
▲ 6 ppts in HCMC (80%) ▲ 3 ppts in Hanoi (47%) Avg. Selling Prices
▲16% y-o-y in HCMC ▲7% y-o-y in Hanoi
(*) Absorption rate: Sold units of newly launch projects in 1H 2021/ new launch supply during the period Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q2 2021. CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
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CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
WORK FROM HOME: POTENTIAL LONG-TERM IMPACT
POTENTIAL LONG-TERM CHANGES
84%
Locational preferences may change
Prefer To Work Remotely
Being less geographically constrained enables a move to a cheaper location, further away from CBD
Source: COVID-19 Update: potential long-term change, CBRE Research, 2020; Working from home survey 2020, CBRE Research, 2020; Workforce Sentiment Survey, CBRE Research, 2020. CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
54
Internal layouts will come under more scrutiny
The need for designated WFH space will be considered. Light, and outside space are also important.
Being at home means watching the bills
Households WFH will increasingly become more energy conscious
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
UNLOCKING NEW RESIDENTIAL AREAS - INFRASTRUCTURE
IS A KEY
CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
55
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
HANOI: IMPROVEMENT OF INFRASTRUCTURE SYSTEM OVER THE YEARS FACILITATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW RESIDENTIAL AREAS
Significant townships of greater than 70ha
National Rd. 5
Thang Long Ave.
CORE DISTRICTS
Ring Ro
Rd
al R d. 3 2
Na tio na l
Ring Road 3
Na tion
Future
.1 A
Existing
ad 2 na
tio Na lR
ng Ri
d. 5b
ad Ro 5 3.
CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q2 2021.
56
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
HCMC: MORE INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT REQUIRED TO ADDRESS THE CURRENT SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS My P
hu ex oc pr – T es a sw n ay Va n
Ring R oa d 3
HC MC –
Saigon Binh An
CORE DISTRICTS g Rin
Waterpoint
Lu ng Tru y C – esswa M HC expr
a Ro
d
Tau ung –V oa ssway nH Bie Expre
Vinhomes Grand Park
Lon g exp Thanh ress – way Dau G
Aqua City
2
Waterpoint
ong
Significant townships of greater than 70ha Existing
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q2 2021. CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
iay
57
Future
Infrastructure Existing
Future
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
MID-END IS THE MAIN THEME COVERING 79% OF TOTAL NEW LAUNCH IN BOTH MARKETS HCMC Condominium, New Launch Supply, Q2 2021 (6M: ▼ 9% y-o-y)
Q2: ▲ 1.3x q-o-q New launch slowed down in June due to Covid-19 wave in the South
12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000
8,000 6,000 4,000
0
Q3
2019
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2020
Q4
Q1
due to Covid-19 wave from May and started to recover in June
10,000
2,000 Q2
Q2:▼20%q-o-q
12,000
2,000 Q1
(6M:▲10% y-o-y)
14,000
New launch (units)
14,000
New launch (units)
Hanoi Condominium, New Launch Supply, Q2 2021
Q1
Q2
Q2
Q3
2019
2021
Q4 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2020
Q1
Q2
2021
◼ LUXURY: >US$4,000 psm | ◼ HIGH END: US$2,000 – 4,000 psm | ◼ MID END: US$1,000 – 2,000 psm | ◼ AFFORDABLE: < US$1,000 psm Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q2 2021.
CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
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CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
NEW LAUNCH IN 6M2021
HCMC: West and South took lead from East for new launch projects Hanoi: East and West continued to be key areas of supply contribution
HCMC Residential, Map of New Launch Supply H1 2021
Hanoi Residential, Map of New Launch Supply H1 2021
NORTH (17%)
WEST (31%)
NORTH (1%) CENTRAL (4%)
EAST (22%) WEST (39%)
CORE DISTRICTS (1%)
SOUTH (26%)
Landed property
EAST (39%)
SOUTH (19%)
Luxury
High-end
Mid-end
Affordable
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q2 2021. CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
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CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
New heights in pricing of luxury products
CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
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CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
CONDOMINIUM PRIMARY PRICES CONTINUED TO INCREASE HCMC Condominium, Primary prices, Q2 2021 HIGH-END $2,577 (▲0.4% y-o-y)
MID-END $1,552 (▲8.3% y-o-y)
AFFORDABLE $954 (▲1.6% y-o-y)
LUXURY $5,100
8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 -
Primary price (US$ psm)
Primary price (US$ psm)
LUXURY $6,882 (▲9.2% y-o-y)
Hanoi Condominium, Primary prices, Q2 2021
LUXURY: >US$4,000 psm |
2020
MID-END $1,395 (▲ 6.7% y-o-y)
AFFORDABLE $883 (▲9.1% y-o-y)
8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2019
HIGH-END $2,368 (▲2.2% y-o-y)
2021
2019
HIGH END: US$2,000 – 4,000 psm |
MID END: US$1,000 – 2,000 psm |
2020
2021
AFFORDABLE: < US$1,000 psm
(*) Selling price: US$ psm (excluding VAT and quoted on NSA) Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q2 2021. CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
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CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
VILLA/TOWNHOUSE SECONDARY PRICES: UPTREND ACROSS ALL PRODUCT TYPES HCMC Villa/Townhouse, Secondary prices, Q2 2021 VILLA
TOWNHOUSE
SHOPHOUSE
VILLA
TOWNHOUSE
SHOPHOUSE
$4,901
$4,202
$5,595
$4,869
$5,127
$6,774
(▲4% y-o-y)
(▲18% y-o-y)
(▲6% y-o-y)
(▲12% y-o-y)
$10,000
$10,000
$8,000
$8,000 US$/sqm
US$/sqm
Hanoi Villa/Townhouse, Secondary prices, Q2 2021
$6,000 $4,000
(▲14% y-o-y)
(▲11% y-o-y)
$6,000 $4,000 $2,000
$2,000
$0
$0
Q1
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2019 Villa
2020 Townhouse
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2019
20212021
Villa
Shophouse
Q2
Q3
2020 Townhouse
Q4
Q1
Q2
2021 Shophouse
Secondary prices increased among all products, especially townhouses Selling price: US$ psm (including construction, excluding VAT and quoted on land area) Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q2 2021. CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
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CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
LUXURY SEGMENT PRICING: REACHING REGIONAL LEVELS SEA prime residential prices 25,000
0.05% at >$18,000 psm
US$ psm
20,000 15,000 10,000
3% at ~$7,000 psm Luxury
5,000
31%
High-end
0 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q2 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 Jakarta
Bangkok
Hanoi
HCMC
Singapore
43%
Mid-end
Phnom Penh
24%
Affordable
LUXURY: >US$4,000 psm | HIGH END: US$2,000 – 4,000 psm | MID END: US$1,000 – 2,000 psm | AFFORDABLE: < US$1,000 psm Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q2 2021.
(*) Selling price: US$ psm (excluding VAT and quoted on land area) CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
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CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
HCMC CONDO SECONDARY PRICE GROWTH SLOWED DOWN YET STILL SEEING INCREASES BY 10-15% Y-O-Y
Launching price
2020 asking price*
Vinhomes Grand Park (2019)
Centum Wealth (2018)
Saigon Gateway (2017)
Him Lam Phu An (2016)
Lavita Garden (2015)
Kingdom 101 (2018)
Q2 Thao Dien (2018)
Current asking price
Price growth rate 2021 VS. 2020(%)
35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20%
Mid-end
Masteri An Phu (2018)
One Verandah (2018)
Millennium (2016)
Feliz En Vista (2016)
Estella Heights (2015)
The Nassim (2015)
Gateway Thao Dien (2015)
High-end
Lavita Charm (2017)
5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 Masteri Thao Dien (2014)
Secondary selling price (US$ psm)
HCMC condominium, Secondary prices in notable projects, Q2 2021
Price growth rate
LUXURY: >US$4,000 psm | HIGH END: US$2,000 – 4,000 psm | MID END: US$1,000 – 2,000 psm | AFFORDABLE: < US$1,000 psm Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q2 2021.
(*) Selling price: US$ psm (excluding VAT and quoted on land area) CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
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CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
HANOI SAW STRONGER PRICE GROWTH IN SELECTED MID-END CONDOS, YET LAGGED BEHIND HCMC’S
2,500
High-end
10%
Mid-end
8%
2,000
6% 1,500
4% 2%
1,000
Y-o-y growth
Secondary selling price (US$ psm)
Hanoi condominium, Secondary prices in notable projects, Q2 2021
0% 500
-2%
-
-4% Indochina Park Hill - Hoang Cau Vinhomes Plaza Hanoi Ti mes City - Skyline Skylake - 2009 2015 2016 2016
Seasons Avenue 2015
Q2 2019
An Binh My Dinh Green Pearl Vinhomes Imperi a Sky Cau Giay Mipec Ci ty - 2016 Pearl - 2017 Greenbay - Garden Center Rubik360 2016 2017 2017 Point 2019 2018 Q2 2020
Q2 2021
y-o-y growth
LUXURY: >US$4,000 psm | HIGH END: US$2,000 – 4,000 psm | MID END: US$1,000 – 2,000 psm | AFFORDABLE: < US$1,000 psm Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q2 2021.
(*) Selling price: US$ psm (excluding VAT and quoted on land area) CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
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CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
WEAKENED RENTAL MARKETS DUE TO A DECREASE IN DEMAND OF EXPATS AND FOREIGNERS
Hanoi Condominium, Rental yields, Q2 2021
8%
8%
7%
7%
6%
6%
Rental yields
Rental yield
HCMC Condominium, Rental yields, Q2 2021
5% 4% 3% 2% 1%
Expats fret as Vietnam tightens visa policies
5% 4% 1 7
3%
J u n e
2 0 2 1
2% 1%
0% District 1 2019
District 2
Binh Thanh
2020
Q2 2021
District 7
0% CBD
Midtown Tay Ho 2019
2020
West
South
Q2 2021
LUXURY: >US$4,000 psm | HIGH END: US$2,000 – 4,000 psm | MID END: US$1,000 – 2,000 psm | AFFORDABLE: < US$1,000 psm
(*) Selling price: US$ psm (excluding VAT and quoted on land area) Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q2 2021. CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
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CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
INNOVATIVE SALES POLICIES INTRODUCED
CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
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CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
INCREASINGLY COMPETITIVE SALES POLICIES TO ENTICE BUYERS
Move in after paying
0%-20% of unit value. AND SALES METHOD
ONLINE PLATFORM
New City Thu Thiem: Move in after paying 30% of unit value
CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
Limited buyers per section to ensure 5K policy to prevent COVID-19
68
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
NUMBER OF SOLD UNITS EXCEEDED SUPPLY IN BOTH HCMC AND HANOI 1H2021 HCMC Condominium, Sold units, Q2 2021 (6M: ▲ 28% y-o-y)
16,000
(6M: ▲20% y-o-y)
16,000
Q2: ▲ 76% q-o-q Sold units slowed down in June due to Covid-19 wave in the South
12,000 10,000 8,000
Q2: ▼6% q-o-q
14,000
Slight decline due to disruption in May
12,000
Sold Units
14,000
Sold units
Hanoi Condominium, Sold units, Q2 2021
6,000 4,000 2,000
10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000
0
Q1
Q2
Q3
2019
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2020
Q1
Q2
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2021
2019
2020
2021
◼ LUXURY: >US$4,000 psm | ◼ HIGH END: US$2,000 – 4,000 psm | ◼ MID END: US$1,000 – 2,000 psm | ◼ AFFORDABLE: < US$1,000 psm
High-end continued to absorb remaining units in township projects
Projects from township developments covered ~60% of sold units in H1 2021 Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q2 2021.
CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
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CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
STRONG MOMENTUM IN LANDED PROPERTY MARKET, BUT SUPPLY AVAILABILITY DIVERGES BETWEEN THE TWO MARKETS HCMC Villa/Townhouse, Sold units, Q2 2021
Hanoi Villa/Townhouse, Sold units, Q2 2021
(6M: ▼ 78% y-o-y)
3,000 Q2: ▼ 56% q-o-q Small launching scale per event due to COVID-19
Units
2,000 1,500
Q2: ▲ 9.7x q-o-q New projects launched in Q2 experienced good absorption
2,500 2,000 Units
2,500
(6M: ▲115% y-o-y)
3,000
1,500
1,000
1,000
500
500 0
0 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2019 New supply
Q1
Q2
Q3
2020
Q4
Q1
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
Q2
2019
2021
New launch
Sold units
2020
2021
Sold units
Landed property in high demand
Sold units dropped due to lack of supply Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q2 2021. CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
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MARKET OUTLOOK
CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM Nguồn ảnh: Zing
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ENCOURAGING SIGNS OF PROGRESS WITH INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS, BUT COMPLETION SCHEDULE REMAINS UNCERTAIN
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STRONGER NEW SUPPLY EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT TWO YEARS, BUT WILL YET RETURN TO PRE-COVID 19 LEVEL
HCMC Condominium, New launch supply vs. Sold units 40,000
Hanoi Condominium, New launch supply vs. Sold units 40,000
Forecast
35,000
35,000
30,000
30,000
25,000
25,000
20,000
20,000
15,000
15,000
10,000
10,000
5,000
5,000
-
Forecast
2018
2019
New launch supply
2020
2021F
2022F
2018
Sold units
2019 New Launch
2020
2021F
2022F
Sold Units
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q2 2021.
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PRIMARY PRICES EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER ACROSS ALL SEGMENTS HCMC Condominium, Forecast primary price
Hanoi Condominium, Forecast primary price LUXURY – Branded residence project to introduce at new record high
Forecast $8,000
$8,000
▲ 6% y-o-y
Forecast
$7,000
$6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000
▲ 4% y-o-y
$2,000
▲ 3% y-o-y
Primary Pricing (US$ psm)
Primary pricing (US$ psm)
$7,000
$6,000 $5,000 $4,000
▲ 7% y-o-y
$3,000
▲ 4% y-o-y
$2,000 $1,000
$1,000
▲ 1% y-o-y
$2018 Luxury
2019 High-end
2020
2021F
Mid-end
▲ 4% y-o-y
$0 2018
2022F
High-end
Affordable
2019
2020
Mid-end
2021F
2022F
Affordable
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q2 2021.
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FORECAST TRENDS
Home office solutions for condominiums as Work From Home prolongs
CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
Investors from the South will look for more opportunities in Northern provinces
Branded Residence enhances luxury living
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Township projects in neighboring provinces continue to attract investors
Vaccine visa and increasing vaccine rates will drive foreign buyers back to Vietnam
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For more information regarding this presentation please contact: CBRE Vietnam Co., Ltd. – Research & Consulting T: +84 28 3824 6125 | E: research.vietnam@cbre.com CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM
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