CBRE RESEARCH
RESTART THE UNEVEN RECOVERY VIETN AM
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H C M C R E A L E S TAT E MARKET OUTLOOK
ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
CONTENT 1. HCMC OFFICE 2 . H C M C R E TA I L 3. VIETNAM INDUSTRIAL
RESTART THE UNEVEN RECOVERY
4. HCMC RESIDENTIAL
ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
HCMC OFFICE
REGAIN
44
A YEAR TO LOOK BACK NUMBER OF BANKRUPTED ENTERPRISES
MORE BENEFITS FOR OCCUPIERS
Flexible leasing terms
HCMC
OCCUPANCY RATE DECREAS E D
Hanoi
94%
0
5,000 10,000 15,000
2019
9M 2020
88%
02 More options for occupiers
01
Tenants gained negotiation power
03
2019 2020
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q4 2020. GSO.
ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
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5
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN PERFORMANCE BETWEEN GRADE A AND B SEGM ENTS HCMC OFFICE: MARKET SNAPSHOT 2020
GRADE B
GRADE A TOTAL SUPPLY
475,253
NLA (sqm)
ASKING RENT*
US$42.8
947,233 sqm NLA
18 projects
68 projects
US$25.3
5.3% y-o-y
3.6% q-o-q
US$/sqm/month
VACANCY RATE
sqm NLA
18.1%
(%)
2.4% y-o-y 0.2% q-o-q
9.0 ppts y-o-y
9.1%
6.6 ppts q-o-q
4.1 ppts y-o-y 3.0 ppts q-o-q
3
NEW COMPLETIONS In 2020: 65,372 sqm 1 Decentralized Grade A 2 Grade B
31% compared to 3-year average
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q4 2020. Note: Asking rent is quoted on NLA, excluding VAT & Service charges.
ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
5
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
NEW SUPPLY IN 2020: NEW COMPLETIONS INTRODUCED DURING A YEAR OF DIFFICULTIES
2,000,000
24%
1,750,000
21%
1,500,000
18%
1,250,000
15%
1,000,000
12%
750,000
9%
500,000
6%
250,000
3%
0
0%
2015 Total supply - Grade A
2016 2017 Total supply - Grade B
2018 2019 Growth Rate - Grade A
Growth Rate (%)
HCMC Office, Total Supply by Grade
NLA (sqm)
6
2020 Growth Rate - Grade B
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q4 2020.
ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
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CONTRACTIONS GREW SHARPLY AS OCCUPIERS LOOK TO STREAMLINE COST
100% 90%
20%
$40
Asking Rent (US$/sqm/month)
70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20%
10% 0%
$50
17%
27%
80%
HCMC Office, Performance, 2018 - 2020
HCMC
Hanoi
2018 New Letting
Renewal
HCMC
Hanoi
HCMC
2019 Expansion
Hanoi
2020 Relocation
Contraction
15%
$30 10% $20 5%
$10
$0
2018
2019
Grade A Asking Rent Grade A Vacancy Rate
2020
Vacancy Rate (%)
Vietnam Office, Tenants by Leasing Purpose*, Major Transactions Collected and Closed by CBRE 2018 - 2020
0%
Grade B Asking Rent Grade B Vacancy Rate
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q4 2020. (*): The statistics are based on the total number of transactions ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
8
MAJOR SHARE-UP OF INDUSTRY GROWTH TRENDS AS A RESULT OF COVID -19 HCMC Office, Tenants by Industry, Major Transactions Collected and Closed by CBRE 2018 - 2020 Retail/Trade/E-commerce
Growing sectors
Information Technology
Retail/E-Commerce : 2019 – 2020: 11 ppts 2018 – 2020: 14 ppts
Manufacturing Insurance Logistics
2020 2019 2018
Media/Communication/Marketing Finance/Banking
Flexible workspace
Insurance: 2019 – 2020: 10 ppts 2018 – 2020: 7 ppts
Shrinking sectors
Services Oil & Gas
Flexible workspace: 2019 – 2020: -34 ppts 2018 – 2020: -29 ppts
Others 0%
5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q4 2020. (*): The statistics are based on the total NLA. ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
Finance/Banking: 2019 – 2020: -5 ppts 2018 – 2020: -7 ppts CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
9
WHAT TENANTS ARE LOOKING FOR?
High quality management services
Modern specifications, including large floor plates ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
Strong location, with good access to existing and future public transportation
Green building technology, with builtin design to save energy and water
A good range of valueadded amenities, such as coffee shop, flexible workspace, gym, convention hall
Competitive financial incentives, such as longer rent free and fit-out periods CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
10
PARADIGM SHIFT IN OCCUPIER WORKPLACE STRATEGY TOWARDS FLEXIBILIT Y
38%
27%
Will adapt a hybrid model with both remote and office-based work
Will reduce staff density in workplace
Source: “Emerging Trends in Real Estate Asia Pacific 2021 Survey”, PWC. ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
HIGH PREFERENCE ON FLEXIBLE WORKSPACE FROM OCCUPIERS RAISED NEW BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT More Flexible Workspaces Headed Out To NonDistrict 1 Areas
Source: 2020 Global Occupier Sentiment Survey, CBRE Research, September 2020. ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
2019
2018
Non-District 1
2020 (estimation)
District 1
2017
50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0
2015
Supply (sqm)
Different Approaches Of Landlords To Adopt Flexible Workspace Into Their Buildings
2016
11
Source: CBRE APAC, Vietnam Research, Q4 2020. CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
12
INFRASTRUCTURE PIPELINE TO LIFT UP OFFICE MARKET 4% 3% 2015
11%
13%
68%
Central East North 4%
South West
Thu Thiem’s Bridge No. 2
11%
7% 2025
19%
58%
Thu Duc City Metroline no. 1 Metroline no. 2 Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q4 2020. ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
Official formation of Thu Duc City, to take effect from Jan 1st, 2021 National Assembly Standing Committee issued Resolution 1111 / NQ-UBTVQH14 on the arrangement of administrative units at district and commune levels and the establishment of Thu Duc city under Ho Chi Minh City Source: The Library of Law
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
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FUTURE OFFICE SUPPLY 2021: > 60,000 sqm NLA
Worc@Q2, District 2 NLA: ~5,000 sqm
AP Tower, Binh Thanh NLA: ~10,000 sqm
PL Tower, District 4 NLA: ~6,000 sqm
Pearl 5 Tower District 3 NLA: 10,944 sqm
The Graces District 7 NLA: 8,295 sqm
Saigon First House, District 3 NLA: 15,348 sqm
Cobi Tower District 7 NLA: 27,127 sqm
2022 and onwards: >110,000 sqm NLA
Under-construction Under-planning
ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
Spirit of Saigon District 1 40,000 sqm for office
Etown 6 Tan Binh NLA: ~40,000 sqm
Techcombank Tower District 1 GFA: ~30,000 sqm
SCID District 1 GFA: ~6,000 sqm
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
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MARKET OUTLOOK: VIETNAM IS AMONG THE LEAST AFFECTED MARKETS APAC Office, Grade A Rental Forecast 2020F (As of Nov 2020)
Rental growth (%)
5%
2021F (As of Nov 2020)
0% -5% -10% -15% -20%
Source: CBRE APAC Research, Q4 2020. ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
Sydney
Hong Kong SAR
Melbourne
Shenzhen
Shanghai
Beijing
Brisbane
Jakarta
Tokyo
Guangzhou
Hanoi
Ho Chi Minh City
Singapore
Seoul
Taipei
Bangkok
-25%
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
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MARKET OUTLOOK HCMC Office, Performance Forecast
$45
Best: Metroline operated by Q3 2021 & Border restriction lifted
35%
2022F
2021F
30%
$40 $35
25%
$30
20%
$25 $20
15%
$15
10%
$10
Vacancy rate
Rental rate (US$/sqm/month)
$50
5%
$5 $0
0% 2020
2021F - Best Grade A - Rent
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q4 2020.
2021F - Neutral
2021F - Worst
Grade B - Rent
2022F - Best Grade A - Vac
2022F - Neutral
2022F - Worst
Grade B - Vac
Note: * Best: Metroline operated by Q3 2021 & Border restriction lifted * Neutral: Nothing significant happens, metroline is operated on time (Q4 2021), border restriction is not fully lifted * Worst: Delay of everything
ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
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CONTINUED EXPANSION FOR LESS AFFECTED INDUSTRIES INCREASED WORKPLACE FLEXIBILITY & REDUCED DENSITY STABILIZATION OF RENTAL RATES
DECENTRALIZATION
ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
20 21
THE
REGAIN OF OFFICE MARKET
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
H C M C R E TA I L
RESHAPE
18 18
A YEAR TO LOOK BACK Total Sales and Services Turnover (y-o-y change)
Vietnam Mobility Index RETAIL & RECREATION
11.8%
12.3%
100%
12.1% 7.7%
-16%
2.7%
2.6%
compared to baseline
GROCERY & PHARMACY
12%
80%
40%
-1.3%
20%
compared to baseline
0% -15.6%
-17%
7%
60%
+9% PARKS
Vacancy Rate Increases
Vietnam
compared to baseline
HCMC 2019
Hanoi 2020
Da Nang
2019 Occupancy
2020 Vacancy
CBD: down 0.5 ppt Non-CBD: up 5.1 ppts
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q4 2020. GSO, Google Mobility index. The baseline is the median value, for the corresponding day of the week, during the 5-week period Jan 3–Feb 6, 2020 ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
19
INSIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN NEW SUPPLY AND PERFORMANCE HCMC RETAIL: MARKET SNAPSHOT 2020
Non-CBD
CBD TOTAL SUPPLY NLA (sqm)
ASKING RENT*
106,853 sqm NLA 12 projects & podiums
US$135.4
47 projects & podiums
US$35.8
Stable y-o-y
1.12%
(%)
3.8% y-o-y 3.9% q-o-q
Stable q-o-q
US$/sqm/month
VACANCY RATE
942,575 sqm NLA
0.5 ppts y-o-y
13.2%
0.5 ppts q-o-q
5.1 ppts y-o-y
1
REOPENING
New supply in 2020: 11,300 sqm
90% average of past three years
0.6 ppts q-o-q
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q4 2020. Note: Asking rent is quoted on NLA, excluding VAT & Service charges for Ground Floor and First floor. ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
19
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
20
INSIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN NEW SUPPLY AND PERFORMANCE HCMC Retail, Performance by Year
Asking rent (US$ psm pm)
Accumulated Supply NLA (sqm)
1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000
600,000 400,000 200,000
140
14%
120
12%
100
10%
80
8%
60
6%
40
4%
20
2%
0
2017
2018
2019
2020
Accumulated supply
2018 CBD Rent CBD Vacancy Rate
Vacancy Rate
HCMC Retail, Accumulated Supply
0% 2019
2020 Non-CBD Rent Non-CBD Vacancy Rate
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q4 2020. Note: Asking rent is quoted on NLA, excluding VAT & Service charges for Ground Floor and First floor. ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
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CHANGE IN VACANCY RATE BY DISTRICT (2020 VS. 2019)
2. 3.
LOW PURCHASING POWER
LOW QUALITY RETAIL SPACE
4.
WEAK POSITIONING / TRADE MIX
ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
M O S T I M PAC T E D D I S T R I C T S Increase in vacancy rate (ppts)
1.
LOW POPULATION DENSITY
60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% D.6
D.4
D.5 D.11 Tan Phu
D.2 D.10 Tan Binh Binh Thanh
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q4 2020 Vacancy rate recorded for all Shopping centre, Department store and a few notable retail podiums at the districts.
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
22
DECREASE IN NUMBER OF NEW ENTRANTS 2019
2020 – New Entrants
2021 Expected
Fashion & Accessories
F&B
From South East Asia
Mid-end
Multi platforms
Others
Awaits vaccine
CBRE and the CBRE logo are service marks of CBRE, Inc. All other marks displayed on this document are the property of their respective owners, and the use of such logos does not imply any affiliation with or endorsement of CBRE ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q4 2020. CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
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STRONG EXPANSION OF EXISTING TENANTS Change in Number of Stores by Categories (y-o-y) Vietnam
80%
HCMC Source: Nikkei Asian Review, Nov. 2020
60%
40% 20% 0% -20%
Milk Tea
Restaurants
Coffee Chain
Fashion Store
Pharmacy
Lifestyle Store
Shopping Centre
Convenience store
Supermarket
-40% Source: Retail News Asia, 2020
Highland
To aim 2,500 stores nationwide in 10 years
Phuc Long
Starbucks
Waynes Coffee, Coffee Bean and Tea Leaf…
Source: QandME Retail Store Status, 2020.
ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
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STRONG TENANTS TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE SITUATION TO EXPAND Who are strong tenants
What they ask
Financially stable
Good location, good quality retail space
F&B
Strong market presence
Fashion & Accessories
Strong tenants
Free fit out period up to 3 months
Omni channels
Adaptability
Rent negotiation
CAPEX support
Special leasing terms Strategy
Source: CBRE APAC Research, Asia Pacific Retail Flash Survey conducted Sept 21 to Oct 20, 2020. ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
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NEW CONSUMER BEHAVIOURS WILL BE HERE TO STAY
“Vietnam's E-commerce Market To Reach $13.1 Bn In 2020: Study “ (up 30.3% y-o-y)
Source: Entrepreneur.com, Dec 2020
% 87
(*)
believe consumers focus on
sustainability and wellness will reshape shopping behaviour
% 61
(*)
expect a significant increase in consumers’
Spending on experience Source: CBRE APAC Research. *Answers from 120 APAC industry leaders, CBRE survey, 2020 Source: QandME Vietnam EC Market, 2020. ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
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FASHION IS AMONGST THE STRONGEST EXPANDING SECTORS IN 2021
Nike to Open 30 Stores in 2021, Continue Investing in Customer Outreach and Supply Chain Source: RetailTouchPoint, Nov. 2020
Louis Vuitton, Christian Dior join Hanoi luxury market Source: Vietnamnet, Nov. 2020
Asia will lead spending recovery, Uniqlo CEO Yanai says Source: NikkeiAsia, Dec. 2020
China and Southeast Asia will drive consumer spending: Taiwan and Vietnam, which have controlled the coronavirus, are enjoying firm spending while Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines are stagnant ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
Demand for large flagship stores from luxury and fast fashion retailers continue to increase even they pivot to e-commerce
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
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RESIDENTIAL PRODUCTS EXPAND TO SATELLITE MARKETS, SO DOES RETAIL
Japanese developer Tokyu to develop a shopping mall in Binh Duong
4,000 2,000
US$ per year
6,000 CAGR: 12%
Source: Binh Duong News, Nov. 2020
8,000
CAGR: 27%
Central Retail of Thailand to build large trade center in Ben Cat
1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 -
CAGR: 15%
Source: Vietnam Insider, Dec. 2020
Supply Comparison by Province Total Supply (sqm)
Vietnam’s first Cafe Amazon was launched at Central Retail’s BigC Go! Shopping centre in Ben Tre province
0
HCMC
Binh Dong Nai Duong Total Supply GDP per capita
Featuring an outlet of major Japanese retailer AEON Source: Vietstock, Dec. 2020
First Pedro, Charles & Keith, Beauty Box… stores @ Aeon Mall Canary Binh Duong Watsons opened store @ Sense City Can Tho Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, CAGR is change on supply for the period of 2010-2020, Google Images ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
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THE FUTURE OF RETAIL PROPERTY: HOW TO INCREASE RETAIL ASSET RESI LIENCE
ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
29
MARKET OUTLOOK: PIPELINE WILL PICK UP IN CBD AND THE EAST Over total 550,000
sqm in the pipeline 2022 -2025
2021
(>420,000 sqm)
(57,900 sqm)
CBD
Union Square NLA: 27,900 sqm Under renovation
Socar Mall 30,000 sqm District 2
Elite Mall 42,000 sqm District 8
Vincom Grand Park 48,000 sqm District 9
Central Premium Mall Onehub Saigon 70,000 sqm 24,000 sqm District 9 District 8
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q4 2020. Internet Images. ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
Alpha Mall
Spirit of Saigon
Centennial Mall
Tax Plaza
Thu Thiem New Urban Area Lotte Empire City Sonkimland Dai Quang Minh
Subway and Underground mall
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
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LIMITED NEW SUPPLY KEEPS VACANCY FROM SURGING
14%
120
12% 10%
100
8%
80
6%
60
4%
40
2%
20
0%
2020
2021F
2022F
CBD Rent
Non-CBD Rent
CBD Vacancy Rate
Non-CBD Vacancy Rate
10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60%
Shanghai Guangzhou Beijing Brisbane - CBD Shenzhen Sydney - CBD Sydney - Regional Ctr Taipei Perth - Regional Ctr Brisbane - Regional Ctr Singapore Perth - CBD Melbourne - CBD Melbourne - Regional Ctr Tokyo (Ginza) Auckland - Regional Ctr Hong Kong SAR HCMC Hanoi
140
Y-o-Y Change
APAC Retail, Performance Forecast
Vacancy Rate
Asking rent (US$ psm pm)
HCMC Retail, Performance Forecast
2020F
2021F
2019 - 2021 Cumulative
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q4 2020. ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
MARKET WILL PICK UP NOTABLY IN H2 2021
Consumer Confidence: • Improving gradually then picking up when vaccines show effect Retail Space Demand • New concept/format • Physical stores need to evolve into experience Tenants: • Rise of Automobiles, Luxury, Home Furnishing & Decor • Looking for opportunities in 2nd – tier cities Landlords • Transforming to regional centres to offer onestop experience • Mixed use developments help drive spending
ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
VIETNAM INDUSTRIAL
RESILIENCE
33
A YEAR TO LOOK BACK
20 20
High Occupancy Rate of Industrial Parks
U P B E AT I N D U S T R I A L P R O P E R T Y M A R K E T
Surge of Logistic Property Demand
ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
Strong Asking Rent Escalation
Limited Industrial Land Supply in Prime Locations
Manufacturing Relocation is Key Demand Driver
New Players Have Joined The Market
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
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MARKET SNAPSHOT - INDUSTRIAL LAND SUPPLY • • • • •
Hanoi Hung Yen Hai Duong Hai Phong Bac Ninh
South Total leasable area: 24,238 ha
North Total leasable area: 9,433 ha
10,000
90%
9,000
80%
250 200
50% 150
40%
5,000
30%
4,000
100
20%
3,000
10%
2,000
0%
1,000 0
300
60%
6,000
HCMC Dong Nai Binh Duong Long An
350
70%
8,000 7,000
• • • •
100%
Binh Duong
Dong Nai
BR-VT Long An HCMC
Total Industrial Land Area (ha)
Hai Phong
Bac Ninh
Hanoi
Hai Duong
Leasable Industrial Land Area (ha)
Significant gap of supply and rental rate between the major industrial regions ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
Hung Yen
USD/sqm/remaining term
11,000
PERFORMANCE
50
HCMC Hanoi
90 - 100% Occupancy rate
Occupancy rate
Binh Dong Duong Nai
Long An
Bac Ninh
70 - >80% Occupancy rate
Vacancy rate
Hung Hai Hai BR-VT Yen Duong Phong
0
50 - >60% Occupancy rate
Minimum asking rent
Maximum asking rent
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q4 2020. Note: Asking rent is exclusive of VAT and Management/Service charge. The asking industrial land rent is quoted on remaining lease term of industrial parks. Normally, the remaining lease term is from 30 – 45 years. CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
35
MARKET SNAPSHOT - READY-BUILT FACTORY AND WAREHOUSE SUPPLY
ASKING RENT
3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0
HCMC Dong Nai Binh Duong Long An
10 8 6
Ready-built Factory
4
Stable asking rent
2 HCMC Hanoi Binh Dong Bac Hung Bac Hai Hai Duong Nai Ninh Yen Giang Duong Phong
1.5
Warehouse
12
1.0 • • • •
RBF
0
USD/sqm/month
Hanoi Hung Yen Hai Duong Hai Phong Bac Giang Bac Ninh Thai Nguyen Vinh Phuc
Mil. sqm
• • • • • • • •
USD/sqm/month
12
10
0.5 0.0 RBF Supply
WH Supply
Major Northern Provinces Major Southern Provinces Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q4 2020. Note: Northern RBF supply is calculated for Bac Ninh, Hai Duong, Hai Phong, Thai Nguyen, Vinh Phuc, Hung Yen, Bac Giang. Northern WH supply is calculated for Bac Ninh, Hanoi, Hai Duong, Hai Phong, Hung Yen. Southern RBF and WH supply is calculated for HCMC, Binh Duong, Dong Nai, Long An. Asking rent is exclusive of VAT and Management/Service charge ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
Developed logistics hubs
8
Emerging logistics hubs
Warehouse
6 4
Up 5%-10% y-o-y in selected new projects
2 0
HCMC Hanoi
Binh Dong Duong Nai
Bac Ninh
Hai Phong
Long An
Hung Yen
New supply increases significantly in major industrial regions CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
36
ABUNDANT NEW SUPPLY OF HIGH-QUALITY RBF & WH IN MAJOR INDUSTRIAL REGIONS
Thai Nguyen
GAW NP Industrial
Hai Phong Hai Duong Bac Ninh
80,000 sqm
BW Industrial
2020 & 2021
>132,000 2020 & 2021
Dong Nai
KTG & Boustead Industrial >48,200 sqm 2021 HCMC, Binh Duong
BW Industrial 2020
244,000 sqm Long An Long An
JD Property 52,390 sqm
Long Hau Corporation >19,800 sqm 2020
2022 Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q4 2020. Image source: GAW NP Industrial, BW Industrial, KTG Industrial, JD Properties, Vnexpress, Long Hau Corp. ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
37
LOGISTICS INDUSTRY DOMINATES DEMAND Industrial land is the most sought-after product, especially for logistics property development. 30%
38%
Animal feed and Furniture are two of the biggest beneficiaries from FTAs.
Industrial Land RBF WH
33%
One fifth of leasing enquiries belongs to logistics companies Logistics Electronics 20%
Plastic
35% 12% 7% 2%
5%
Industrial Property Development
6%
4%
6%
Garment Medical Equiment Investment Construction
Automotive Other
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q4 2020. Note: The statistic is based on industrial property enquiries received by CBRE Vietnam in 2020. ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
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MANUFACTURING RELOCATION IS A KEY DEMAND DRIVER Bac Giang Bac Ninh
Apple’s vendors in Vietnam: Supply Chain Restructuring
Quang Ninh Ha Noi
China+1 Strategy
Manufacturing Relocation
Hai Phong Nghe An
Local Expansion Da Nang
Quang Nam
Supplier by country
Manufacturing location of suppliers in Vietnam
Dong Nai
20% Binh Duong
HCMC Tien Giang
Existing Manufacturing Location
45%
Expanded Manufacturing Location
ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
35%
19%
North South Central
China
7%
Vietnam 74%
Other
Source: Supplier List, Apple Supplier Responsibility 2019. CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
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LOCAL MANUFACTURING EXPANSION TO ACCOMMODATE BUSINESS GROWTH FTAs are the strong boost of local manufacturing expansion.
UKVFTA December 2020 Vietnam & UK
Automotive
Electronics
RCEP November 2020 ASEAN+
EVFTA
Agriculture & Garment
Logistics
June 2019 Vietnam & EU August 2020 ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
40
NEW PLAYERS IN THE MARKET Tier-1 industrial cities and provinces are key focused areas.
Phu Tho
Industrial Park Vinh Phuc
Logistics Property
Bac Giang Quang Ninh
Bac Ninh Hanoi Hung Yen
Ha Nam
Hai Duong
Hai Phong
Thai Binh
Nam Dinh
Tay Ninh Binh Duong Dong Nai HCMC Long An BR - VT
ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
OUTLOOK
42
ESTABLISHING NEW LOGISTICS HUBS IN MAJOR INDUSTRIAL REGIONS Binh Duong
Chi Lang City
Thai Nguyen Thai Nguyen City
Tay Ninh
Industrial Park International Airport
Vinh Phuc Thu Dau Mot City
Bac Giang
Vinh Phuc City Bac Giang City
Dong Nai Bien Hoa City
Bac Ninh City Quang Ninh Bac Ninh
HCMC Ha Long City
Hai Duong City Hai Duong
Ha Noi
Hai Phong City
Hung Yen
Long An
CBD of HCMC Cat Lai Port
Hai Phong
Phu Ly City Ha Nam
Thai Binh BR - VT Hiep Phuoc Port Cai Mep Port
Ninh Binh City
Nam Dinh
Northern Region ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
Southern Region
30 km
Long An International Port
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
43
INVESTMENT INTO INFRASTRUCTURE DRIVES DEMAND IN NEW LOCATION Expansion of expressway to border and coastal areas in the North
Lang Son
Thai Nguyen
Mong Cai
Lang Son
Thai Nguyen
Mong Cai Vinh Phuc
Vinh Phuc
Bac Giang Bac Ninh
Bac Giang
Hai Duong Hai Phong
Vinh Phuc
Ha Long
Noi Bai
Bac Giang
Quang Ninh
Bac Ninh Phu Ly
Van Don
Bac Ninh Ninh Binh
Hanoi Hai Duong
Performance of IPs in Tier-1 & Tier-2 region 300
80%
250
200
60%
150
40%
100
20%
50
0% Tier-1 Occupancy rate
0 Tier-2 Min asking rent Max asking rent
USD/sqm/remaining term
Hung Yen
100%
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q4 2020. Image source: Zing News. ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
Phu Ly
Completed Expressway
Nam Dinh
Hai Phong
Ha Long
Cat Bi
Thai Binh
Under-construction/planning Expressway
National Road
Tier-1: Hanoi, Bac Ninh, Hai Duong, Hung Yen, Hai Phong Tier-2: Vinh Phuc, Nam Dinh, Bac Giang, Quang Ninh
Construction of Van Don Mong Cai Expressway is expected to complete in 2021. CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
44
INVESTMENT INTO INFRASTRUCTURE DRIVES DEMAND IN NEW LOCATION Binh Duong
Expansion of expressway to the west and coastal areas in the South Chon Thanh
Thu Dau Mot
Dong Xoai
Bien Hoa
Tay Ninh
Dong Nai
Bien Hoa Phan Thiet
Chau Doc
Ha Tien
Cao Lanh
Tan Son Nhat
Tan An
Long Thanh
Long Xuyen My Tho Vinh Long
Vung Tau
Rach Gia
Experimental operation of Trung Luong - My Thuan Expressway in December 2020.
HCMC
Can Tho
Cat Lai
Long An Soc Trang Bac Lieu
Performance of IPs in Tier-1 & Tier-2 region 100%
350 300
80%
250
60%
200
40%
150 100
20%
Hiep Phuoc
USD/sqm/remaining term
Ca Mau
Tan An Long An International
Tien Giang My Thuan 2 Bridge
My Tho
Vinh Long
50
0%
0 Tier-1
Occupancy rate
Tier-2 Min asking rent
Can Tho
Max asking rent
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q4 2020. Image source: Vnexpress, Tuoitre. ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
Vinh Long Completed Expressway Under-construction/planning Expressway
Construction of My Thuan 2 Bridge started in August 2020.
Construction of My Thuan - Can Tho Expressway & Long Thanh International Airport started in January 2021
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
45
IMPROVEMENT OF WAREHOUSE QUALITY INCREASES RENTAL LEVEL
SPECIALIZED FACILITIES FOR ADVANCED DISTRIBUTION NETWORK E-commerce drives leasing demand in 2021. Strong leasing demand condensed in in-city fulfillment centers.
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT OF WAREHOUSE QUALITY High-cost storage systems such as Automatic Storage & Retrieval Systems (ASRS) are mainly adopted by large e-commerce companies. Such solutions usually require built-to-suit properties or significant upgrade of large-scale new builds. Technology will lead to significant advances in warehouse operations and efficiency.
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q4 2020. ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
46
RESURGE OF INDUSTRIAL PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT New supply is expected to resurge and balance gap with rapid increasing demand.
120
2,500
100
2,000
80
1,500
60
1,000
40
500
20
0
0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F
4,000
180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
3,500 3,000 2,500
Ha
3,000
2,000 1,500 1,000 500
0 2016
2017
2018
2019
2020 2021F 2022F
Tier-2 New Supply
Tier-2 New Supply
Tier-1 New Supply
Tier-1 New Supply
Tier-1 Average asking rent (International travel restriction)
Tier-1 Average asking rent (International travel restriction)
Tier-1 Average asking rent (International travel resumes)
Tier-1 Average asking rent (International travel resumes)
Northern Tier-1: Hanoi, Bac Ninh, Hai Duong, Hung Yen, Hai Phong Northern Tier-2: Bac Giang, Nam Dinh, Vinh Phuc, Quang Ninh Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q4 2020. ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
USD/sqm/remaining term
Southern Region USD/sqm/remaining term
Ha
Northern Region
Southern Tier-1: HCMC, Dong Nai, Binh Duong, Long An Southern Tier-2: Binh Thuan, BR-VT, Binh Phuoc, Tay Ninh, Tien Giang, Vinh Long
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
47
INCREASING COMPETITION FROM REGIONAL PEERS Not only Vietnam but also neighboring countries have rapidly established new industrial parks. Korea - Myanmar Industrial Complex 225 ha South Korea: Korea Land and Housing Corp, Global SAE-A Myanmar: Ministry of Construction
Yangon Amata Smart and Eco City 800 ha Thailand: Amata Corp Myanmar: Ministry of Construction
Yangon, Myanmar
Myanmar Singapore Industrial Park 436 ha Singapore: Sembcorp Myanmar: Pahtama Group, Myanmar Agribusiness
Brebes, Indonesia
Brebes Industrial Park 4,000 ha Indonesia: PT Wijayakusuma Industrial Estate
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q4 2020. ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT OF PERFORMANCE OF IPS IN TIER-2 REGIONS ASKING RENT TO INCREASE MODERATELY IN TIER-1 REGION
20 21
WAREHOUSE RENTAL RATE TO ESTABLISHE NEW HIGH LEVEL
THE
NEW SUPPLY IN PRIME LOCATIONS
RESILIENCE
LOCAL MANUFACTURING EXPANSION & PRODUCTION SHIFTS ARE KEY DEMAND DRIVERS
OF INDUSTRIAL MARKET BALANCING DEMAND AND SUPPLY
NEW LOGISTICS HUBS EMERGE IN NON-TRADITIONAL AREAS
ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
HCMC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
HCMC RESIDENTIAL
RESUMPTION
50 50
A YEAR TO LOOK BACK
DISRUPTED SALES ACTIVITIES
Limited transactions from foreigners
Lower supply and sales volume
Weak rental market
Lack of Affordable/Mid-end supply
Investors looking for other channels/markets
BUT SHOWING SIGNS OF RECOVERY
New launch and sold units improved in Q4
ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
Suburban/regional market
Active secondary market
Higher selling price than market average in suburban districts C BCRBER ER REESSEEA AR RC CH H || © © 22002211 CCBBR R EE,, IIN NC C ..
51
LIMITED SUPPLY ESPECIALLY IN MID -END AND AFFORDABLE SEGMENTS
HCMC CONDOMINIUM: MARKET SNAPSHOT 2020 New launch supply: 17,272 units from 21 projects / Sold units: 15,086 units Luxury New launch supply
High-end
Mid-end
1,189 units
13,084 units
2,999 units
3 projects
10 projects
8 projects
35% y-o-y
109% y-o-y
83% y-o-y
$2,519 psm
$1,499 psm
Selling price*
$6,898 psm
Sold units
1,172 units
9,790 units
17% y-o-y
51% y-o-y
9% y-o-y
1% y-o-y
5% y-o-y
3,777 units 81% y-o-y
Affordable
0 unit 0 project
No new project in the last two years
$935
psm
4% y-o-y
LIMITED SUPPLY
347 units 79% y-o-y
LUXURY: >US$4,000 psm | HIGH END: US$2,000 – 4,000 psm | MID END: US$1,000 – 2,000 psm | AFFORDABLE: < US$1,000 psm (*) Selling price: US$ psm (excluding VAT and quoted on NSA) ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q4 2020. CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
Lacking of affordable product
ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
53
LICENSING ISSUE AND COVID-19 COMPRESSED HCMC MARKET HCMC Condominium, New Launch Supply, 2020 45
90
40
80
New launch supply ('000 units)
(▼ 35% y-o-y)
70
30
60
25
50
20
40
15
30
10
20
5
10
0
Number of projects
17,272 units
35
For the first time, there was no new affordable supply
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Luxury
High-end
Mid-end
Affordable
Number of projects
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q4 2020. ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
54
MAP OF NEW LAUNCH SUPPLY
Landed property: 2,120 units in 8 projects (▼33% y-o-y)
18
5 10
4
6
9
8
1
8
6
3
20
12
2
1
7
14
4 11
15 5 7
17 16
21
19
13 3 2
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research & Consulting, Q4 2020. ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
Condominium: 17,272 units in 21 projects (▼42% y-o-y)
The East and the South are two key residential development directions
Landed property: 8 projects Luxury: 3 projects High-end: 10 projects Mid-end: 8 projects Affordable: 0 projects CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
55
SHRINKING AFFORDABLE SEGMENT IN HCMC 1%
Affordable products
30% 34%
3%
Luxury
35%
2015
31%
High-end
159,040 units*
Mid-end 43%
24%
(*) Accumulated supply since 1997 Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q4 2020.
2020 303,287 units*
ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
Affordable
LUXURY: >US$4,000 psm | HIGH END: US$2,000 – 4,000 psm MID END: US$1,000 – 2,000 psm | AFFORDABLE: < US$1,000 psm CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
New Records in Pricing Level Across The Market
ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
57
PRIMARY PRICES INCREASED HCMC Condominium, Primary Price, 2020
HCMC Landed Property, Primary Price, 2020 6,000 $6,898 (▲9% y-o-y)
7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000
$2,519 (▼1% y-o-y) $1,499 (▲ 5% y-o-y) $935 (▲4% y-o-y)
3,000 2,000 1,000 -
4,000
$3.765 (▲ 3% y-o-y )
3,000
$3.134 (▲12% y-o-y)
2,000 1,000 -
2018 Luxury
$5.562 (▲13% y-o-y)
5,000
Primary price (US$ psm)
Primary price (US$ psm)
8,000
High-end
2019 Mid-end
2020 Affordable
2018 Shophouse
2019 Villa
2020 Townhouse
Selling price: US$ psm (excluding VAT and quoted on NSA) Source: CBRE Vietnam Research & Consulting, Q4 2020. ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
58
HIGHEST SELLING PRICE FROM INDIVIDUAL PROJECTS BY DISTRICT
▲25% D.12
▲70% Thu Duc
▲47% D.9
▲24% D.2
▲27% D.10
▲30%
▲53%
Nha Be
Nha Be, Thu Duc and District 9 recorded highest price growth. New projects in these areas quoted higher selling prices by 47%-70% in comparison with surrounding area.
Binh Chanh
(*) Individual project price different to current market level at that location ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
59
MORE ACTIVE SECONDARY MARKET
(*): Compared with launching year. Based on CBRE’s secondary transactions. Selling price: US$ psm (excluding VAT and quoted on NSA)
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research & Consulting, Q4 2020.
Thanh My Loi
Thao Dien ASIA PACIFIC REAL
Launched supply: 10,570 units Handover supply: 6,401 units Price growth*: 10%-30%
Launched supply: 8,693 units Handover supply: 8,378 units Price growth*: 30%-60% ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
Thu Thiem
An Phu
Launched supply: 4,547 units Handover supply: 2,378 units Price growth*: 30%-90%
Launched supply: 9,420 units Handover supply: 7,644 units Price growth*: 30%-50%
Cat Lai CBRE
Launched supply: 3,213 units Handover supply: 1,687 units Price growth*: 20%-25% RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
High-end Inventory stacked up
ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
61
SOCIAL DISTANCING AND TRAVELLING RESTRICTION REDUCED SOLD UNITS HCMC Condominium, New launch vs. Sold units 35,000
3,000
30,000
2,500 Launch: ▼ 35% y-o-y Sold: ▼ 49% y-o-y
20,000 15,000
Launch: ▲ 101% y-o-y Sold: ▲ 217% y-o-y
2,000
Units
25,000
Units
HCMC Landed Property, New launch vs. Sold units
1,500 1,000
10,000
500
5,000
0
0 2018 New launch supply
2019 Sold units
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q4 2020. ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
2020
2018
New launch supply
2019
2020
Sold units
Landed property attracted no shortage of demand from local buyers CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
62
INVENTORY STACKED UP IN HIGH -END SEGMENT HCMC Condominium, Inventory By Year
HCMC Condominium, Inventory in Q4 2020 15,872 units
25,000
Inventory (units)
20,000
15,000
95%
10,000
5.2%
5,000 +74% 2016 Luxury
2017
High-end
2018 Mid-end
2019
2020
Affordable
Unsold
Sold
Total supply: 303,287 units* *Accumulated supply since 1997. Source: CBRE Vietnam Research & Consulting, Q4 2020. ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
63
RENTAL YIELDS COMPRESSED IN TRADITIONAL EXPAT HUBS HCMC Condominium, Rental Yields* by Clusters
Return on Other Investment Channels
8% ▼0.3ppts
Rental yield (%)
7% 6% 5% 4%
▼0.2ppts
2020
▼0.4ppts
▼0.3ppts
2019
3% 2%
2018
1% 0% District 1
District 2 Binh Thanh District 7
2018 • • • •
2019
2020
VN Index: y-o-y change, end of period Bank savings: 12 month deposit SJC gold: y-o-y change of price per tael Rental yield: average of high end projects in D2, Binh Thanh and D7, HCMC. Capital gain not included.
-10%
0%
10%
VND/USD exchange rate Bank deposit Gold (SJC)
20%
30%
40%
Gross residential yield Stock Market (VN Index)
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research; SJC; SBV, Q4 2020 ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
Investors are looking at other markets
ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
65
EMERGENCE OF PROVINCIAL MARKETS
Hoa Binh
Vinh Phuc
Bac Ninh
Hai Phong
Quang Nam
Phu Yen
Bao Loc
Binh Thuan
Binh Duong
Long An
Phu Quoc
ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
Dong Nai
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
66
EMERGENCE OF PROVINCIAL MARKETS
HCMC
Binh Duong
5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0
Dong Nai
Binh Long An Duong
Selling price (US$/sqm)
20,000 16,000 12,000 8,000 4,000 0
No condominium supply
Units
Condominium, New Launch Supply and Performance
Thu Dau Mot
Condominium
Dong Nai Long An
Selling price
Landed Property, New Launch Supply and Performance
Units
HCMC
Tan An
Sold units
6,000
6,000
4,000
4,000
2,000
2,000
0
0 HCMC Dong Binh Long Nai Duong An
Landed property
Sold units
Selling price (US$/sqm)
Bien Hoa
Selling price
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research & Consulting, Q4 2020. ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
POSITIVE
Recovery Prospect
ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
Image source: Zing
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
68
NEW ALLIES IN 2020
NOTABLE NEW JOIN VENTURE AGREEMENTS
NAM LONG – KEPPEL LAND MALL MANAGEMENT Waterpoint Township
ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
PHAT DAT AND DANH KHOI
PHU LONG – KEPPEL LAND
Astral City
Celesta Rise
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
69
MARKET OUTLOOK HCMC Condominium, Future Supply and Sold Units
Forecast
17,300 units 16,057 units
New launch supply (units)
30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000
7,000
▲ 2-7% y-o-y
6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000
▲ 4% y-o-y
2,000
▲ 2% y-o-y
1,000
2018 Luxury
Forecast
8,000
Primary price (US$ psm)
Sold
Launch
21,838 units 19,400 units
35,000
HCMC Condominium, Primary Price
2019
High-end
2020
2021F
Mid-end
2022F
Affordable
▲ 1% y-o-y
-
2018 Luxury
2019
High-end
2020 Mid-end
2021F
2022F
Affordable
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q4 2020. ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
Improvement in product quality and new branded residence product, driven by the growing number of new join ventures. Investors/developers are looking for new opportunities in other provinces
20 21
Vaccine for COVID-19 and Vaccine for the market
THE
2021 will be challenging for buyers, because of the continued lack of affordable and mid-end products
OF RESIDENTIAL MARKET
RESUMPTION
Big data, proptech to track customers and drive customization. Better services, better positioning, better sale management and asset management
ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
CBRE RESEARCH | Š 2021 CBRE, INC.
A S I A PAC I F I C R E A L E S TAT E MARKET OUTLOOK | VIETNAM
THANK YOU CBRE RESEARCH
This report was prepared by the CBRE Asia Pacific Research Team, which forms part of CBRE Research â&#x20AC;&#x201C; a network of preeminent researchers who collaborate to provide real estate market research and econometric forecasting to real estate investors and occupiers around the globe. All materials presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright and proprietary to CBRE. Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from materials and sources believed to be reliable at the date of publication. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. Readers are responsible for independently assessing the relevance, accuracy, completeness and currency of the information of this publication. This report is presented for information purposes only exclusively for CBRE clients and professionals, and is not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. All rights to the material are reserved and none of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party without prior express written permission of CBRE. Any unauthorized publication or redistribution of CBRE research reports is prohibited. CBRE will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this publication. To learn more about CBRE Research, or to access additional research reports, please visit the Global Research Gateway at www.cbre.com/research-and-reports Š 2021 CBRE, Inc.