AGENDA 1. HCMC RESI DENTIAL MARKET 2. I NVESTMENT TI PS
KIET VO Director
3. Q&A
Residential Project Marketing
RESUMPTION
THE OF RESIDENTIAL MARKET
4 4
A YEAR TO LOOK BACK
DISRUPTED SALES ACTIVITIES
Limited transactions from foreigners
Lower supply and sales volume
Weak rental market
Lack of Affordable/Mid-end supply
Investors looking for other channels/markets
BUT SHOWING SIGNS OF RECOVERY
New launch and sold units improved in Q4
A SHI AC PMAC C I FRI C A LE ENST TA R KREK T EOTU TO LO KO 20 M4 E SR EI D I AT EL MMAA UO TL O2K1 |2 0V 2I E1T N| AQ
Suburban/regional market
2020
4
Active secondary market
Higher selling price than market average in suburban districts
C B R E R E S E A R©C H 0 2B1RCEB, RIEN, C I N. C . 2 0| 2©1 2 C
HCMC CONDOMINIUM: MARKET SNAPSHOT 2020 LIMITED SUPPLY ESPECIALLY IN MID-END AND AFFORDABLE SEGMENTS
New launch supply: 17,272 units from 21 projects / Sold units: 15,086 units Luxury New launch supply
High-end
Mid-end
1,189 units
13,084 units
2,999 units
3 projects
10 projects
8 projects
35% y-o-y
109% y-o-y
83% y-o-y
$2,519 psm
$1,499 psm
Selling price*
$6,898 psm
Sold units
1,172 units
9,790 units
17% y-o-y
51% y-o-y
9% y-o-y
1% y-o-y
5% y-o-y
3,777 units 81% y-o-y
Affordable
0 unit 0 project
No new project in the last two years
$935
LIMITED SUPPLY
psm
4% y-o-y
347 units 79% y-o-y
LUXURY: >US$4,000 psm | HIGH END: US$2,000 – 4,000 psm | MID END: US$1,000 – 2,000 psm | AFFORDABLE: < US$1,000 psm Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q4 2020.
(*) Selling price: US$ psm (excluding VAT and quoted on NSA) HCMC RESIDENTIAL MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | Q4 2020
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N E W L A U N C H D O W N 5 2 % Y- O -Y, B U T B O U N C E D B A C K I N Q 4 HANOI CONDOMINIUM: MARKET SNAPSHOT 2020
Total units sold: 18,514 - Total units launched: 17,974 from 34 projects Luxury
High-end
New launch 0 project supply 0 unit
3 projects 1,989 units 1 project relaunched ▲ 12% y-o-y
Mid-end
Affordable
24 projects 13,260 units ▼ 55% y-o-y
7 projects 2,725 units ▼ 54% y-o-y
Selling price*
US$ 5,100/sqm
US$ 2,168/sqm ▼ 7% y-o-y
US$ 1,361/sqm ▲ 4% y-o-y
US$ 830/sqm ▲ 6% y-o-y
Sold units
59 units ▲ 26% y-o-y
1,823 units ▼ 19% y-o-y
13,838 units ▼ 31% y-o-y
2,794 units ▼ 55% y-o-y
(*) Selling price: US$ psm (excluding VAT and quoted on NSA)
LUXURY: >US$4,000 psm | HIGH END: US$2,000 – 4,000 psm MID END: US$1,000 – 2,000 psm | AFFORDABLE: < US$1,000 psm
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q4 2020. HCMC RESIDENTIAL MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | Q4 2020
DECLINE IN NEW LAUNCH
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LICENSING ISSUE AND COVID -19 COMPRESSED HCMC MARKET 17,272 units
21 projects
(▼ 35% y-o-y)
(▼ 42% y-o-y)
ACCUMULATED SUPPLY BY SEGMENT
45
90
40
80
35
70
30
60
25
50
20
40
15
30
10
20
5
10
0
2010
Luxury
2012
High-end
2014 Mid-end
2016
2018
Affordable
3 %
31 %
Number of projects
New launch supply ('000 units)
HCMC Condominium, New Launch Supply, 2020
Luxury High-end
Mid-end 43%
24%
2020 Number of projects
Affordable
2020 303,287 units*
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q4 2020. HCMC RESIDENTIAL MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | Q4 2020
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CLICK TO EDIT MASTER TEXT STYLES
Lacking of luxury product in the CBD
ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
HCMC: MAP OF NEW LAUNCH SUPPLY IN 2020
18
10 9
8
6
3
20
12
2
1
14 4 11
15 5
Condominium: 17,272 units in 21 projects (▼42% y-o-y)
The East and the South are two key residential development directions
7 17 16
21
19
13
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research & Consulting, Q4 2020. HCMC RESIDENTIAL MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | Q4 2020
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Luxury: 3 projects High-end: 10 projects Mid-end: 8 projects Affordable: 0 projects © 2021 CBRE, INC.
HANOI: THE EAST LED THE NEW LAUNCH SUPPLY Landed property: 844 units (▼ 80% y-o-y) from 8 projects Condominium: 17,974 units (▼ 52% y-o-y) from 34 projects
NORTH
WEST
EAST
NO NEW LAUNCH IN 4 CORE DISTRICTS (*) IN 2020
11%
5%
44% 40%
East 8 Landed property 0 Luxury
3 High-end 24 Mid-end 7 Affordable
SOUTH Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q4 2020. (*) 4 core districts: Hoan Kiem, Hai Ba Trung, Dong Da, Ba Dinh districts
HCMC RESIDENTIAL MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | Q4 2020
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Future bridge
West
South
North
EAST took the lead in number of units launched in 2020 © 2021 CBRE, INC.
CLICK TO EDIT MASTER TEXT STYLES
New Records in Pricing Level Across The Market
ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
LUXURY PRODUCTS ATTRACTED NO SHORTAGE OF DEMAND HCMC Condominium, Primary Price, 2020
HCMC Condominium, Sold Units, 2020 35 $6,898 (▲9% y-o-y)
7,000
30
6,000
Sold units ('000)
Primary price (US$ psm)
8,000
5,000 4,000 $2,519 (▼1% y-o-y) $1,499 (▲ 5% y-o-y) $935 (▲4% y-o-y)
3,000 2,000 1,000
20 15 10
3%
0 2018 High-end
2019 Mid-end
8% ~ 1,000 units
5
Luxury
25
2020
2018
Affordable
Luxury
5% 2019
High-end
Mid-end
2020 Affordable
Selling price: US$ psm (excluding VAT and quoted on NSA) Source: CBRE Vietnam Research & Consulting, Q4 2020. HCMC RESIDENTIAL MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | Q4 2020
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H A N O I C O N D O M I N I U M : D E L AY I N L A U N C H O F P R O J E C T S AT P R I M E L O C AT I O N S L E A D I N G TO L O W E R P R I M A R Y P R I C I N G F O R H I G H - E N D S E G M E N T Hanoi Condominium, New Launch Vs. Sold Units Lower Supply Volume Allows Sales To Catch Up
Hanoi Condominium, Primary Prices, 2020 $6,000
40,000 35,000
$5,100
$5,000
30,000
$3,000
$2,168 (▼7% y-o-y) $1,361 (▲ 4% y-o-y) $830 (▲6% y-o-y)
$2,000 $1,000 $0 2018 Luxury
High-end
2019 Mid-end
Units
$4,000
Launch: ▼ 52% y-o-y Sold: ▼ 35% y-o-y
25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 -
2020
2018
Affordable
New launch
2019
2020
Sold units
Selling price: US$ psm (excluding VAT and quoted on NSA) Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q4 2020. HCMC RESIDENTIAL MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | Q4 2020
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HIGHEST SELLING PRICE FROM INDIVIDUAL PROJECTS BY DISTRICT
▲25% D.12
▲70% Thu Duc
▲47% D.9
▲24% D.2
▲27% D.10
▲30%
▲53%
Nha Be
Nha Be, Thu Duc and District 9 recorded highest price growth. New projects in these areas quoted higher selling prices by 47%-70% in comparison with surrounding area.
Binh Chanh
(*) Individual project price different to current market level at that location HCMC RESIDENTIAL MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | Q4 2020
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DEVELOPERS SET NEW PRICING LEVELS ACROSS CLUSTERS NEW RECORDS BY DISTRICTS First two new Nha high-end projects Be, Thu Duc and launched inDistrict Long Bien 9 recorded highest and Gia Lam districts price growth. New
Luxury project relaunched in Cau Giay district
WEST
CAU GIAY ▲ 35% y-o-y
EAST
projects in these area quoted higher selling prices by 47%-70% in comparison with surrounding area.
LONG BIEN ▲ 11% y-o-y NAM TU LIEM ▲ 10% y-o-y GIA LAM ▲ 20% y-o-y
New high-end project offered higher pricing DISTRICT Primary Price▲% (% differences between the highest offerings in 2020 and average selling price of the same location in 2019) HCMC RESIDENTIAL MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | Q4 2020
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q4 2020.
(Selling price: US$ psm (excluding VAT and quoted on NSA)
SOUTH 15
Upgrade in position of large-scale township HUNG YEN ▲ 12% y-o-y
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RENTAL YIELDS COMPRESSED IN TRADITIONAL EXPAT HUBS HCMC Condominium, Rental Yields* by Clusters
Return on Other Investment Channels
8% ▼0.3ppts
Rental yield (%)
7% 6% 5% 4%
▼0.2ppts
2020
▼0.4ppts
▼0.3ppts
2019
3% 2%
2018
1% 0% District 1
2018 • • • •
-10%
District 2 Binh Thanh District 7 2019
2020
VN Index: y-o-y change, end of period Bank savings: 12 month deposit SJC gold: y-o-y change of price per tael Rental yield: average of high end projects in D2, Binh Thanh and D7, HCMC. Capital gain not included.
0%
10%
VND/USD exchange rate Bank deposit Gold (SJC)
20%
30%
40%
Gross residential yield Stock Market (VN Index)
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research; SJC; SBV, Q4 2020 HCMC RESIDENTIAL MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | Q4 2020
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AND THE SAME STORY IN HANOI Hanoi Condominium, Rental Yields By Clusters 6.0% 5.0%
Rental Yield
4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% CBD
Midtown Tay Ho 2018
2019
West
South
2020
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q4 2020. Selected projects only, capital gain not included. HCMC RESIDENTIAL MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | Q4 2020
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POSITIVE
Recovery Prospect
HCMC RESIDENTIAL MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | Q4 2020 Image source: Zing
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HCMC: MARKET OUTLOOK HCMC Condominium, Primary Price
HCMC Condominium, Future Supply and Sold Units
Forecast
17,300 units 16,057 units
New launch supply (units)
30,000 25,000 20,000
7,000
15,000 10,000 5,000
▲ 2-7% y-o-y
6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000
▲ 4% y-o-y
2,000
▲ 2% y-o-y
1,000
2018 Luxury
Forecast
8,000
Primary price (US$ psm)
Sold
Launch
21,838 units 19,400 units
35,000
2019
High-end
2020 Mid-end
2021F
▲ 1% y-o-y
-
2022F
2018
Affordable
Luxury
2019
High-end
2020 Mid-end
2021F
2022F
Affordable
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q4 2020. HCMC RESIDENTIAL MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | Q4 2020
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© 2021 CBRE, INC.
HANOI: MARKET OUTLOOK Hanoi Condominium, New Launch and Sold Units Forecast
$7,000
40,000
25,000
30,000
Primary Pricing (US$ psm)
Launch: ▲ 40% y-o-y Sold: ▲ 38% y-o-y
35,000
Number of units
Hanoi Condominium, Primary Price Forecast
25,500
25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000
$6,000
$6,000
$5,000 $4,600
$4,000 $3,000
▲ 10% y-o-y
$2,000
2018
2019
2020
2021F
▲ 4% y-o-y
▲ 2% y-o-y
▲ 4% y-o-y
▲ 4% y-o-y
$1,000 $0
-
▲ 5% y-o-y
2018
2022F Luxury
2019
High-end
2020 Mid-end
2021F
2022F
Affordable
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q4 2020. HCMC RESIDENTIAL MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | Q4 2020
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INVESTMENT TIPS
BEFORE MAKING A PURCHASE DECISION Location, location, location - Does it have future potential? Near to sufficient amenities? Unique characteristics: design, facilities, living environment, unit size, view, etc Active secondary market with available options Track record of developer?
20 21
THE
RESUMPTION OF RESIDENTIAL MARKET
Does the project have sound legal basis? Opportunities in other provinces
ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | VIETNAM
CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
LUXURY PRODUCTS IN PRIME LOCATION
Ultra modern amenities
100% safety and security
Top-of-the-line Quality & Design
LUXURY CONDOMINIUM
Historical preservation and cultural of the city
DISTRICT 1
The best location in the city
A sense of exclusiveness
HCMC RESIDENTIAL MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | Q4 2020
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HCMC RESIDENTIAL MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | Q4 2020 24
Alpha Hill
Grand Manhattan
$7,000 - $9,100
The Marq
Empire City $5,100 –$ 8,100
The VERTEX
$6,600 – $8,800
The Metropole
The Centennial
The River
$4,569 – 8,272
24
MAP OF LUXURY SUPPLY IN 2018-2020
© 2 0 2 1 Image C B R Esource: , I N C . The Marq
ACTIVE SECONDARY MARKET AREAS
Thanh My Loi
Launched supply: 10,570 units Handover supply: 6,401 units Price growth*: 10%-30%
Thu Thiem
Thao Dien
Launched supply: 8,693 units Handover supply: 8,378 units Price growth*: 30%-60%
An Phu
HCMC RESIDENTIAL MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | Q4 2020
Launched supply: 4,547 units Handover supply: 2,378 units Price growth*: 30%-90%
Launched supply: 9,420 units Handover supply: 7,644 units Price growth*: 30%-50% 25
District 1
Launched supply: 5,282 units Handover supply: 3,318 units Price growth*: 6%-8% per year
Cat Lai
Launched supply: 3,213 units Handover supply: 1,687 units Price growth*: 20%-25% © 2021 CBRE, INC.
TRACK RECORDS OF DEVELOPERS Notable Luxury and High-end developers
HCMC RESIDENTIAL MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | Q4 2020
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Investors are looking at other markets
HCMC RESIDENTIAL MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | Q4 2020
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EMERGENCE OF PROVINCIAL MARKETS
Hoa Binh
Vinh Phuc
Bac Ninh
Hai Phong
Quang Nam
Phu Yen
Bao Loc
Binh Thuan
Binh Duong
Long An
Phu Quoc
HCMC RESIDENTIAL MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | Q4 2020
Dong Nai
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EMERGENCE OF PROVINCIAL MARKETS
HCMC
Binh Duong
5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0
Dong Nai
Binh Long An Duong
Selling price (US$/sqm)
20,000 16,000 12,000 8,000 4,000 0
No condominium supply
Units
Condominium, New Launch Supply and Performance
Thu Dau Mot
Condominium
Dong Nai Bien Hoa
Sold units
Selling price
Units
HCMC
Tan An
6,000
6,000
4,000
4,000
2,000
2,000
0
0 HCMC Dong Binh Long Nai Duong An
Landed property
Sold units
Selling price (US$/sqm)
Landed Property, New Launch Supply and Performance
Long An
Selling price
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research & Consulting, Q4 2020. HCMC RESIDENTIAL MARKET OUTLOOK 2021 | Q4 2020
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For more information regarding this presentation please contact: CBRE Vietnam Co., Ltd. – Research & Consulting T: +84 28 3824 6125 | E: research.vietnam@cbre.com
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PAN EL IST S KIET VO Director Residential Project Marketing
HONG LE Senior Sales Manager Residential Project Marketing
BAO TO Trading Floor Director Residential Project Marketing
Q&A