A NEW WAY
TO READ THE
WEATHER Rainfall Prediction for Improved Agriculture and Disaster Preparedness
A NEW WAY TO READ THE WEATHER Rainfall Prediction for Improved Agriculture and Disaster Preparedness @ 2018 Copyright by World Neighbors First Edition: July 2018 Editorial Team: Directors Writers Editors Design and Layout
: Edward Wright and Putra Suardika : Farida Budi Utami and Riza Irfani : Putra Suardika and Manu Drestha : Mateu Djumhari and Bambang Mulyono
WORLD NEIGHBORS Jalan Letda I Dewa Rai Hadnyana, Perumahan Taman Asri Blok B No 2, Batubulan, Sukawati, Gianyar, Bali 80582 Telephone: 0360 - 299055 All rights reserved under law. This book or parts there of may not be reproduced in any form without credit to the original publication. This report is made possible by the generous support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The contents are the responsibility of World Neighbors and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.
PREFACE Climate change is playing an increasingly prominent role on rainfall patterns across eastern Indonesia. In the last few years alone, the region experienced exceptionally intense rainfall in 2010/2011 and during the El Nino of 2015/1016, effecting all areas of life for the rural populations of Nusa Tenggara who have been working with World Neighbors (WN) since the early 1980s.
Tropical countries such as Indonesia are experiencing increasing dynamic weather conditions. Traditional farming techniques of course exist for reading the weather; predicting when it will rain; choosing which crops are most appropriate for planting and which ones to avoid etc. but these can no longer guarantee maximum harvests. What’s needed is a new method which uses data that can more accurately predict rainfall patterns in this changing environment. Given these considerations, WN with the financial support of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) developed the Disaster Risk Reduction in Nusa Tenggara project. One of the main components of the project, done in cooperation with the Institute of Technology Bandung (ITB) was to develop a model for predicting rainfall patterns, which could then be used by farmers and local governments to improve their agricultural calendars and better plan for climatebased disasters. The predictions covered a five year period from 2018 - 2022, and covered the Regencies of Dompu, Central Lombok, West Lombok and East Lombok in West Nusa Tenggara Province (NTB), and Nagekeo in East Nusa Tenggara Province (NTT).
3 PREFACE
Because most farmers tend dry land fields, the agricultural system in Nusa Tenggara is entirely dependent on rainfall. If the annual rain is limited, then harvests are at risk and correspondingly a village’s food security is threatened. On the other hand, over-abundant rainfall can lead to natural disasters, such as the floods which swept through Bima City in December 2016; the flash floods suffered by Sembelia Subdistrict, East Lombok in 2017; and the flooding in Dompu Regency in early 2018, which washed away agricultural lands and destroyed many homes. It also increases the risk of landslides, which have occurred in several areas WN works in, washing away bridges, roads and other infrastructure, and requiring huge financial outlays to repair.
A NEW WAY TO READ THE WEATHER
4
The output of this work is a series of maps showing in 10-day time periods (i) Forecasted rainfall patterns; (ii) Recommended planting schedules for rice and secondary dry season crops; (iii) Potential climate-based disasters; (iv) Potential for pests and plant infestations and (v) Potential for the spread of malaria and dengue fever. To implement this project, we worked closely with many stakeholders, especially our local NGO partners from each of the five regencies we implemented this program in (PSP in West Lombok, Berugak Desa in Central Lombok, LPSDM in East Lombok, LESPEL in Dompu, and YMTM-Flores in Nagekeo), the regency governments (Pemda), the Disaster Risk Reduction Forums (DRR-Forum)1, the Regional Disaster Management Agencies (BPBD), Agriculture Departments and Regional Environmental Management Agencies. The work was difficult, as changing the mindset of local farmers from their traditional weather forecasting methods is not an easy endeavor. Nevertheless, through our staff and our local partners’ perseverance, our work has brought positive change. More and more farmers are understanding the benefits and joining the project, while a number of the regency governments have enthusiastically committed their own resources to take over the project, which we hope will eventually see the creation of an easily accessible phone app and website, through which the information can be accessed by everyone with their regency. Thank you to everyone who we worked with on this project, and without whom this book A New Way to Read the Weather, would not have been possible. This is just a summary of this work to date as much still needs to be done, but we hope it will contribute in a small way to a better understanding of how local people, especially farmers in Nusa Tenggara, can adapt and prosper as they face the everyday reality of living with climate change. Kind regards, Edward Wright Southeast Asia Regional Director World Neighbors
1. The Disaster Risk Reduction Forum (DRR-Forum) is a coordinating body made up of individual stakeholders from government, private sector, academia and civil society who are concerned with promoting disaster risk reduction. In accordance with Law No. 24 of 2007 Concerning Disaster Management, the DRR-Forum are to be established at the provincial and regency levels. In each of the regencies where WN works, WN has been the prime initiator in the formation of these forums.
TABLE OF
CONTENTS 3 PREFACE 7 FARMERS’ CONFUSION IN FORECASTING THE WEATHER 11 RAINFALL PATTERN PREDICTION MODEL, FAST FOURIER TRANSFORM METHOD 19 CONFIDENCE GROWS, FARMERS BEGIN TO USE THE FORECASTS 27 FINANCIAL LOSS DECREASES WHILE DISASTER PREPAREDNESS INCREASES 41 GOVERNMENT POLICY BASED ON REAL DATA 45 SMART IDEAS FOR COMMUNICATING, CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES GOING FORWARD
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A NEW WAY TO READ THE WEATHER
FARMERS’ CONFUSION
Climate change has caused many traditional weather forecasting techniques used by communities across Nusa Tenggara to decrease in accuracy. While occasionally some of these techniques continue to provide reliable information, the unfortunate truth is that most are no longer able to accurately predict the start or length of the wet season, or the intensity of the rainfall which leads to an increasing number of crop failures due to droughts or flooding. To assist farmers, a new method was required which could more accurately predict rainfall patterns, which can tell farmers when the first rains will fall, how long they will be, and what their intensity will be. This new model would be shared by WN to communities, local government and other interested stakeholders in the five regencies of Nusa Tenggara in which WN works.
7 FARMERS’ CONFUSION IN FORECASTING THE WEATHER
IN FORECASTING THE WEATHER
A NEW WAY TO READ THE WEATHER
8
“I arrived from Java in 1997 through the government’s transmigration program. In Java, flying white ants are a common nighttime sign that the rainy season is encroaching. But they don’t exist here. So I just followed the local farmers - if they all planted corn, I did too. But over these last 10 years I have experienced complete failures in my harvests. All of a sudden, the rain stops. Sometimes it rained for only two months. I lose about IDR seven million (USD 500) each season,” laments Badriah, a farmer in Songgajah village, Kempo Regency, Dompu Regency. A different story is related by Mrs. Imas, a farmer from Sugian Village in East Lombok. “According to my parents, since 1985 - the year I was born, until 2006, Sugian never flooded! Now since 2006, almost every two years our village experiences intense rainfall and flooding. In 2014 we had a serious flash flood. Many of our livestock were killed, crops were destroyed, even homes were ruined. I was stunned, how could this happen?” These two testimonies, taken from dozens of similar ones retold by farmers across Nusa Tenggara illustrate how farmers are confused about their planting calendar and how traditional forecasting is no longer reliable as the climate is changing. “Ocean waves are already high; the forests are already burning, and the rain does not come. If this is so, well, I will just go ahead and plant my crops! If they fail, what can I do?” says Alamudin, a farmer in Dara Kunci, East Lombok.
Left: Flooding, Dompu Regency
Right: A harvest ruined by drought, Dompu
This causes serious problems for farmers. “Apart from the quality of the rice decreasing, productivity decreases as well. Insect infestations which are getting more difficult to predict can also ruin a good harvest. I usually have to borrow money to buy my seeds, and every failed crop costs me about IDR nine million (USD 630),” says Sahnam, a rice farmer from Buwun Mas, West Lombok.
In the face of climate change, accurate weather forecasting is becoming increasingly important. Weather forecasts in Indonesia are supplied by the Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical Agency (BMKG). Forecasts are supposed to be valid for the next three months, however the circulation of these forecasts is often late and often does not reach farmers who would benefit most from them. Furthermore, forecasts are for wide areas such as entire regencies and districts, rather than detailed information focusing on specific villages. “So, with monthly forecasts like this over such a wide region, it is difficult for an individual farmer to make decisions on whether he should plant or not,” says Manu Drestha, a Program Associate of WN. It was against this background that WN began working with the Meteorology Faculty at the Institute of Technology Bandung (ITB), using satellite technology with enhanced computer data programs to develop a model for forecasting rainfall patterns in Nusa Tenggara.
9 FARMERS’ CONFUSION IN FORECASTING THE WEATHER
Faced with a changing climate that is getting harder and harder to predict, farmers in Nusa Tenggara - especially those engaged in dryland farming, can experience huge losses. Just growing enough food for your family can become a huge challenge. Marselinus Mau, Coordinator of the Partnership of Independent Farmers in Flores (YMTM), WN’s local partner in Nagekeo Regency, Flores island, reported that in 2014, there was a severe drought. Farmers tried three times to plant crops, failed all three times, and were forced to go into the mountains to hunt for wild vegetables.
10 A NEW WAY TO READ THE WEATHER
RAINFALL PATTERN
FAST FOURIER TRANSFORM METHOD2
Rainfall pattern prediction using the fast Fourier transform model was developed by WN together with ITB. It produces five tools which illustrate 1) Rainfall pattern projections; 2) Planting calendars for dry land crops; 3) The potential for climate-related disasters (flooding, landslides, and droughts); 4) The potential for pests and plant infestations; and 5) The potential for the spread of malaria and dengue fever. The method is capable of projecting seasonality and weather with 90% accuracy. Two models were developed: a monthly rainfall forecasting model, and a 10-day period model. The 10-day model provides greater detail and is an improvement of the monthly model.
2. Fast Fourier transform is a transformation method that converts signals from the time domain to the frequency domain by calculating algorithms quickly and efficiently. Since 1986 it has become one of the standard methods in data analysis.
RAINFALL PATTERN PREDICTION MODEL, FAST FOURIER TRANSFORM METHOD
PREDICTION MODEL,
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A NEW WAY TO READ THE WEATHER
Weather is defined as the state of the atmosphere at a particular time and place. It is includes such atmospheric parameters as temperature, air pressure, humidity and rainfall, at one specific place and at one specific time. Predicting changes in the weather for longer than a few days becomes very difficult as for each additional day the level of uncertainty increases. This is especially true with the topography of the mountainous regions of Indonesia with its varying temperatures, air pressure, wind directions, and humidity which are very dynamic and hard to predict. Because of this uncertainty, new weather prediction models are being developed by various parties for the benefit of communications, oceanography, agriculture, disaster-planning etc.
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ITB together with WN developed a rainfall predictive model for use in agriculture and disaster management using fast Fourier transform algorithm software, which is then able to project season and climate with a proven 90% accuracy.
Manu Drestha (Program Associate World Neighbors) “A 10-day rainfall forecast is perfect for the agricultural sector, because it allows enough time for farmers to plan their planting activities. Another advantage is the geographical detail it provides, which is every 5km2, so any differences in rainfall between neighboring villages or hamlets can be seen.�
The rainfall prediction model is built on information taken from multiple sources. Most importantly is the data collected over the past > 10 years from pluviometer stations located across the target regencies. This is cross-referenced with data supplied by the BMKG; topographical map data; agricultural land maps which show the types of crops grown supplied by the local Department of Agriculture; rainfall patterns from satellite images; and data supplied by the local communities regarding trends in rainfall over the past two years, together with the type of crops successfully planted and harvested. All of this information is carefully analyzed including any anomalies that may have occurred. Accuracy of the prediction model is of course wholly reliant on the quality of the data its built upon. The WN-ITB rainfall prediction model is slightly different from the model used by BMKG, which provides information on estimated rainfall across a fairly wide area, usually one entire district, regency or across a whole island, and provides the projected weather for three days, one week, and three months into the future. According to experienced farmers, this model is not very useful because the forecasted area is too vast, making the information too vague for their agricultural needs.
The model developed by WN-ITB can provide data on monthly rainfall for a five-year period, and in much smaller unit areas. With this longer period, farmers can determine when to plant, and estimate the number of possible harvests in both the current and following year. At the moment this model provides forecasts in 10-day intervals, but the digital version being developed will provide intervals of three days, and will be updated every three hours. To maximize the accuracy of the projections, the model uses three levels of analysis - direct projections, anomaly projections, and periodic projections which, when compared against each other provide the most stable and accurate final projection data.
Originally, the forecasting model provide monthly forecasts for 2015 – 2019, but in 2018 a more precise model was produced which provides forecasts based on 10-day periods.
Difficulties in collecting rainfall data
Apart from the BMKG, rainfall data is also available from regency-level Agriculture Departments and provincial-level Public Works offices, who get their information from pluviometer stations which are supposed to be located in every district (kecamatan). But unfortunately, not all districts have them. The rainfall predications are obviously only as reliable as the data they’re built on, therefore the quality and quantity of this equipment is a critical factor influencing the accuracy of the rainfall models.
13 RAINFALL PATTERN PREDICTION MODEL, FAST FOURIER TRANSFORM METHOD
Through analysis of this data, the five forecasting models are created. These predictions are valid for five years.
A NEW WAY TO READ THE WEATHER
Monthly Forecasting Model Monthly rainfall data is used to predict disasters (floods and droughts) and to give recommendations on rainfed farming. Dryland food crops can be planted when there is an average rainfall of 120 mm per month. Depending on the topography, flooding can occur in locations when rainfall is 600 mm per month or more. Ready for planting rainfed crop Not ready for planting rainfed crop
14
Predicted rainfall for September 2016 in Dompu Regency
Recommended planting pattern for rainfed crops for September 2016 in Dompu Regency
10-day Forecasting Model
Potential for flooding for September 2016 in Dompu Regency
This model was developed to give more accurately timed predictions. Whereas the previous model provided one forecast for the whole month, this newer version provides one forecast every 10 days. It provides forecasts in 10-day periods - so three times within each month (days 1 to 10, 11 to 20, and 21 until the end of the month), which allows farmers and other parties to more easily make appropriate preparations, schedule their activities and prepare for possible disasters.
Rainfall Prediction for Jan. 11 - 20
Rainfall Prediction for Jan. 1 - 10
15
Field ready for planting
Field not ready for planting
Field ready for planting
Field not ready for planting
Paddy field ready for planting
Paddy field not ready for planting
Paddy field ready for planting
Paddy field not ready for planting
Jan. 11 - 20 Prediction for the Planting of a Second Crop
Jan. 1 - 10 Prediction for the Planting of a Second Crop
Field ready for planting
Field not ready for planting
Field ready for planting
Field not ready for planting
Paddy field ready for planting
Paddy field not ready for planting
Paddy field ready for planting
Paddy field not ready for planting
RAINFALL PATTERN PREDICTION MODEL, FAST FOURIER TRANSFORM METHOD
Jan. 11 - 20 Prediction for the Planting of Rice
Jan. 1 – 10 Prediction for the Planting of Rice
A NEW WAY TO READ THE WEATHER
For the forecasts made between 2015 – 2019, the accuracy for the first two years is very high, but then decreases in the third year.
Rainfall Prediction for Jan. 21 - 31
16 Jan. 21 - 31 Prediction for the Planting of Rice
Field ready for planting
Field not ready for planting
Paddy field ready for planting
Paddy field not ready for planting
Jan. 21 - 31 Prediction for the Planting of a Second Crop
Definition: • Very Accurate: The predictions matched with reality for the entire 12 months. • Quite Accurate: The predictions matched with reality for 6 – 11 months. • Inaccurate: The predictions matched with reality for 1 – 5 months.
Accuracy of the Forecasts will increase as the Rainfall Data is Updated
Field ready for planting
Field not ready for planting
Paddy field ready for planting
Paddy field not ready for planting
To maintain the accuracy of the forecasts, it requires updated rainfall data from the previous two-year period, so for the period 2015-2019, updates were required in 2017 from 2015 - 2016.
Length of dry season: 6 months and +/-20 days
1 2 3 4
Image 2 shows the potential for droughts in West Lombok in 2018. The village circled is at risk from the start of May until the start of December, as shown in the graph below the map. Image 3 shows the potential of plant pests and diseases in West Lombok in 2018. The places circled are at risk during the second 10-day period of April, the third 10day period of June, and the second 10-day period of October. Image 4 shows the potential for dengue fever and malaria in West Lombok in 2018. The places circled are at risk during the weeks highlighted in the orange boxes.
RAINFALL PATTERN PREDICTION MODEL, FAST FOURIER TRANSFORM METHOD
Image 1 shows the potential for flooding in West Lombok in 2018. The villages circled are at risk during the weeks highlighted in the graph below the map.
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18 A NEW WAY TO READ THE WEATHER
CONFIDENCE GROWS
19
Three years after WN started promoting the rainfall forecasts, the number of farmers across the five regencies who had adopted it was 5,439, which was 63% of the total with whom the information was shared. These farmers saw that the projections for the two planting seasons of 2015/2016 and 2016/2017 proved to be accurate.
CONFIDENCE GROWS, FARMERS BEGIN TO USE THE FORECASTS
FARMERS BEGIN TO USE THE FORECASTS
These first adopters can be described as pioneers, bravely trying this new approach. Many had been involved in earlier development programs and so were more open to change. Another clear demographic of this group were younger farmers, who believed in the forecasts because the technology made sense to them.
A NEW WAY TO READ THE WEATHER
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After the forecasting model for 2015 – 2019 was finished, WN and its partners held publicity events to share the information. The first audience was made up of decision-makers such as Regency Heads (Bupati) and their top civil servants; Regional Development Planning Board (BAPPEDA) staff, Regional Disaster Management Agency (BPBD) staff, as well as members from the regency legislature, the DPRD. Following these consultations, WN held workshops that brought together academics, civil society and farmer leaders. The next step was to publicize the information at the village, hamlet, and community group levels. Whenever there were farmers or groups interested in applying the forecasts to their own farms, they were mentored by WN’s local partners directly in their fields. This accompaniment was provided not only to assure farmers when to plant and what crops would be most appropriate, but also to help with planting techniques and crop maintenance and care.
Three years following the first publicity campaign, 5,439 of the 8,635 farmers who received the rainfall forecasts information had used them, with the highest adoption rates being seen in East Lombok Regency and the lowest in Dompu. In the first year following the awareness-raising campaigns, 59% of farmers who received the information adopted it; in the second year the number rose to 75%; while in the third year it fell to 65%. This pattern can be explained because in years one and two, the project was implemented in roughly the same villages, so farmers who didn’t join in year one but saw the benefits it brought to others then joined in year two. But in year three, the project expanded to new areas so while the number of farmers increased, the percentage decreased because many did not yet believe in the new technology. Many challenges confronted WN partners during these first campaigns, mostly due to the fact that they were bringing a new approach to farming, which was quite different from traditional practices. During this time many farmers did not trust the information at all. Nevertheless, there were a few who decided to try it. “When I attended the first workshop with the Regional Development Planning Board, and heard the presentation by Dr. Armi of ITB, I immediately believed in and wanted to try out the program,” reports Kalam, a farmer from Sugian village in East Lombok Regency.
Considered “taboo,” the predictions are not to be used for planting rice In the village of Pagomogo, Nagekeo Regency, many farmers did not want to use forecasts for planting their rice because the seasonal planting times had traditionally always been set by the village elders. Villagers did not wish to go against tradition, afraid of the possible consequences such as being penalized by the elders or bringing bad luck to their community. Only a handful of people were bold enough to challenge tradition. One of these Yakobus Kama. “I dared to plant rice early based on the forecasts because often when I followed the village tradition my harvest would fail, because the rainfall stopped earlier than we had planned and my rice crops failed to develop properly.”
21 CONFIDENCE GROWS, FARMERS BEGIN TO USE THE FORECASTS
Left: Villagers of Montong Sapah studying the forecasts Right: Field Assistant from Berugak Desa sharing the forecasts in Aik Bual Village, Central Lombok
A NEW WAY TO READ THE WEATHER
22
Gunawan (Chairman of the Farmer Group Collective, Buwun Mas Village) “In the beginning, there were only two people who wanted to adopt the forecasts, but after I campaigned for it, 22 people chose to plant corn following the rainfall maps. The next year, 40 people joined up, and now more and more farmers are interested to try.”
A different example can be seen from a farmer in Songgajah Village, Dompu, whose owner did not follow the predictions. Only one type of crop was planted and after the harvest, the field lay idle, whereas in other fields, farmers who followed the predictions knew there would be enough rain to plant a secondary crop.
Another testimony comes from Buwun Mas Village, West Lombok, which was not included in WN’s original project, but when they heard about it from their neighbors, the head of their farmer’s group Bapak Gunawan asked WN’s local partner PSP to share the information with their group too. The farmers who followed this guidance were able to harvest 12 tons of corn per hectare, compared to the 6-7 tons which other farmers from their village who didn’t follow the forecasts harvested. On the other hand, Bapak Sahnam, another farmer from Buwun Mas who initially was not persuaded to use the forecasts went ahead and planted rice as normal but then tragically saw his rice fields destroyed by floods. After this, in 2017 Sahnam along with 40 other farmers from Buwun Mas followed the new schedules. Other examples can be taken Pagomogo Village. According to Marselinus Mau, coordinator of WN’s local NGO partner YMTM Flores, at the beginning even him and his staff were not convinced of the efficacy of the forecasts, his feelings summed up with the words “We are not like God, because only God knows when the rains will come!” Because of their own doubt, in the first year of the project YMTM requested only a few farmers to experiment with the forecasts, planting their corn crop in September 2015, when normally they would plant in December. Not only did the September planting prove to be successful, but it meant that these few farmers were able to plant again in December and so benefit from two harvests. Seeing these results, other farmers soon enthusiastically embraced the forecasts for the 2016/2017 planting season.
Farmers who did not follow the forecasts after they harvested their main crops, generally left their fields fallow. A different forecasting method was used by H. Safrudin, a farmer from Keramabura Village, Dompu Regency who had always used signs in nature for determining the start of the planting season. “In the past we used the tamarind tree as an indicator for the start of the rainy season. When the new leaves sprouted, it was the sign that the rains were upon us. To predict when the planting season was over, we used the kapok tree. When the kapok began to dry, it was a sign that we should not plant any longer.” H. Safrudin
“I made a comparison of the start of the rainy season given by the digital forecasts and it was the same as the sprouting of the asam tree leaves. What is different though is that through the WN forecasts we can also determine when the rainy season will finish and how intense the rain will be.”
Safrudin really believed in the predications. In the midst of the increasing trend to plant only corn in Dompu,3 he continued to diversify his crops in line with the rainfall projections. “Corn has actually became invasive of the jungle in Dompu as more and more farmers have expanded their fields for this crop. But I didn’t follow this craze, and the different crops I harvested proved more than enough,” said Safrudin.
3. The growing of corn has increased massively in NTB and specifically Dompu Regency, as these locations have become the center of Indonesia’s corn production program.
H. Safrudin’s land is planted with a variety of different crops and because their harvests can be rotated, none of the field is left idle.
23 CONFIDENCE GROWS, FARMERS BEGIN TO USE THE FORECASTS
(Farmer, Keramabura Village)
When he saw proof of the value of the forecasts, Safrudin was in constant contact with Pak Amir, Field Assistant for LESPEL, WN’s local NGO partner in Dompu. From time to time he purposely called Amir in front of other members of his farmer group so they could hear directly the information offered by Mr. Amir. “We nicknamed Mr. Amir ‘Rain Maker,’ because he translated the forecasts for us,” said a smiling Safrudin.
A NEW WAY TO READ THE WEATHER
Expanded corn fields in Keramabura Village, planted based on the forecasts
24 From the 26 villages that originally partnered with WN across the five regencies, there were initially only 123 pioneer farmers who followed the forecasts, 20 of whom were female. Most of these women are young farmers, who have the potential to open new doors for the program because the youth like to be challenged by new technology and are anxious to try out new ideas and technology. One of these young farmers is Alimudin from Buwun Mas Village. “I firmly believe in the forecasts because I’ve seen it proven and it makes sense to use new technology! We can no longer count on quaint superstitions. Imagine what we will do when we are able to use the app on our mobile phones! We will be able to get rainfall information even more quickly.�
The importance of women as pioneers The project has been running for three years now but has not yet seen a significant number of women as pioneers. This might be attributed to the sorts of crops involved, the majority of which hold high economic value that traditionally are farmed by males, whereas women in eastern Indonesia normally choose to grow crops which are used more in the daily foods of their families. Going forward, there needs to be more focus on female farmers and how the crops they typically grow can benefit from the forecasts.
Pioneer Farmers 1 2
25
3
CONFIDENCE GROWS, FARMERS BEGIN TO USE THE FORECASTS
4
1). Yakobus Kama, from Pagomogo Village 2). H. Zainarod, who is also the owner of an automotive repair shop which he uses to gather the people of Keramabura village to share information on the forecasts. 3). Amaq Atun in front of his corn field in Dara 6). Munir, pioneer farmer and chairman of the Kunci Village, Lombok. Community Disaster Management Group 4). Siti Hanah in front of her farm in Aik Bual (KMPB) in Dara Kunci Village, Lombok Village, Lombok. 5). Kalam, farmer from Sugian Village, Lombok 7). H. Ahmad, pioneer farmer from West Lombok. who grew a local variety of corn combing both the rainfall information, and in-hole tillage with organic fertilizer
5
6
7
FINANCIAL LOSS DECREASES
Using the rainfall forecasts can bring many benefits to farmers. In the five regencies, corn production averaged 3.5 tonnes per hectare – an increase of 77%. Sustainable food stocks rose on average to almost 12 months of supply (11.8 months), with 3,053 families totaling 11,400 people being food secure for 10 months or more. This was due to the year-on-year increase in the numbers of farmers who adopted the forecasts and the size of land they cultivated, with 3,328 families farming a total of 839 hectares of land. This has also provided an average increase of 49% in household earnings, from USD 1,280 to USD 1,870 per year per family. The forecasts have also driven village officials and the village level disaster management groups to make serious preparations against natural disasters. In fact, the BPBD officials in the five regencies all reported that the forecasting model has increased the focus on disaster prevention and preparedness, with welldirected and better-scheduled activities.
27 FINANCIAL LOSS DECREASES AS PREPAREDNESS INCREASES
AS PREPAREDNESS INCREASES
A NEW WAY TO READ THE WEATHER
Agricultural Production Increases while Financial Losses Decrease Rice and corn are the major crops grown across the five regencies, and in the very remote areas where WN targets farming is dominated by rain-fed agriculture. However, as climate patterns change, farmers are increasingly confused over the timing of seasonal rainfall patterns. If they are successful in planting but there’s low rainfall, farmers will suffer droughts. On the other hand, over-abundant rainfall causes flooding which too will cause crop failure.
28 Corn Fields Planted Using the Forecasts in Sugian Village, East Lombok, 2016/2017 Harvest Season
It is situations like these that cause frequent crop failures. Usually, even a successful harvest will guarantee only 7 - 8 months of food security. In order to have sufficient food stocks, farmers sell livestock or work as day laborers to get enough money to buy rice for their families. Many people are forced to borrow. “When rice or corn stocks have been depleted and we have no more livestock to sell, I am forced to borrow funds from my local co-op. To borrow IDR 100,000, I must return IDR 200,000 by the end of the month,” says Maria Bupu, a farmer from Nagekeo Regency. Such predicaments have been improved as villagers begin to use the forecasts. When farmers can better predict rainfall patterns again, they can again successfully decide on the type of crops to plant, or to decide not to plant at all. This decision was made by the Bapak Kalam and eight other farmers in the village of Sugian, East Lombok in 2015. “After we consulted with the forecasts and saw that there would be insufficient rainfall, we made the decision not to plant a crop. The prediction proved correct. Many other farmers here lost their entire crop. But because I didn’t plant, I was not out-of-pocket for IDR seven million (USD 490).“ When the forecasts were first socialized in 2015, farmers began planting local crops4 iin their fields. The number of farmers who were open to this opportunity to improve their family’s food stocks increased each year, and as a result the average time families in the five regencies were food secure 4. Local crops are varieties of food crops which have been traditionally cultivated in the area since long ago, and are commonly used for food by the community. See page 29 about the types of local food crops.
rose from 8.5 months (2014 baseline) to almost the entire year (11.8 months). In the five regencies, these numbers translate to 3,053 families or 11,398 individuals who had more than 10 months of provisions. This occurred because the numbers of farmers who grew local crops increased year-by-year to 3,328 familieDuring the planting
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Restoring the Value of Neglected Local Crops Barley, sorghum, sesame, millet, and a variety of tubers are types of local plants that grow in dryland areas. However, in eastern Indonesia these crops have long been neglected, with most farmers focusing only corn, and only planting local crops along the edges of their fields. But after receiving information on the forecasted decrease in rainfall, farmers have awoken to the important role these crops can play in their family’s food security, because only these types of crops can actually withstand the drier conditions and thrive in extended dry seasons. Furthermore, these local plants can provide people with a nutritionally balanced diet, excellent for nursing mothers and non-sugar diets. “I planted 400m2 of sesame and from 1 kg of seeds I can harvest 100 kg. The selling price of sesame is IDR 18,000 per kilo (USD1.25), though in certain seasons it can reach IDR 40,000 per kilo (USD2.80),” reports Sunaryo from Montong Sapah village in Central Lombok. This story is echoed by Benediktus Loy, of Nagerawe village in Nagekeo: “Sesame has been around a long time but we only ever planted a little of it. In the past it was practically worthless, but now I can sell it for up to IDR 45.000 per kilo (USD 3.15).” Yakobus Kama, from Pagomogo Village uses millet for food supplies: “I planted millet in between other plants. It’s often used by nursing mothers to increase the quantity of their milk. So it’s not a new crop for us, but before I never planted much of it.”
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seasons of 2015-2018 there has been an increase in the number of farmers cultivating local foods crops. The area under cultivation has also expanded.
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Rising Incomes Although other crops such as cashews, candlenut and tamarind can contribute to a farmer’s livelihood, across the five WN regencies corn is overwhelmingly the main source of income. In Dompu corn is the cash crop planted by almost all farmers, and is the government’s main priority for developing this traditionally poor region. After farmers adopted the forecasts and combined it with conservation agriculture techniques5, there was a year-on-year rise in corn production across the five WN locations. In 2017, average productivity reached 3,447 kilo per hectare (a rise of 77% from 2014). The highest level was reached in Central Lombok with 6,412 kilo per hectare.
5. Conservation Agriculture is a farming system that promotes maintenance of a permanent soil cover, minimum soil disturbance (i.e. no tillage), and diversification of plant species. It enhances biodiversity and natural biological processes above and below the ground surface, which contribute to increased water and nutrient use efficiency and to improved and sustained crop production.
Besides being active in KWT, the Women Farmers’ Group, Klara is also involved in managing the community savings and credit groups (SCG), which can increase the success of following the forecasts. Often at planting times when there’s a need to act quickly, farmers don’t have easy access to capital to buy seeds and so can miss the opportunity. The SCG offers an alternative source of funding for farmers to quickly plant the right kind of crops at the right times. Top: Klara Sada makes fermented bokashi fertilizer for use in her garden Center: Vegetable cultivation in Buwun Mas village, West Lombok Bottom: Large scale cultivation of sesame in Nagerawe village, Nagekeo.
Another positive consequence of the changes mentioned above has been the rise in income enjoyed by farmers accompanied by WN’s partners throughout the five regencies. Data taken from the baseline study conducted in 2014 revealed that the average annual income for families was IDR 17,931,020 (USD 1,280). At the end of the project in 2018, this had risen to IDR 26,167,786 (USD 1,870) – an increase of 49%.
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Klara Sada, a member of the Maju Terus female farmers group of Nagerawe Village, joined WN’s program early on and has consistently matched her farming with the information she’s received. “At the time I learned about the rainfall forecasts we were experiencing regular failed harvests. I did not yet fully understand the forecasts, but I followed the advice and saw directly the benefits they brought. So now every dry season, based on the information I get from the rainfall predictions, I’ve been planting vegetables and making bokashi fertilizer, so that the rain water can be stored in the ground longer and my crops can grow. The land here is classified as infertile, so it requires a lot of fertilizer.”
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This rise in income is also down to selling new crops of high economic value, which are selected based on what grows well according the predicted intensity of rainfall. These crops include tomatoes, chilis, green beans, sweet potato and sesame. Several farmers were also able to increase their family incomes through joining the SCG. The potential for incomes to improve further will grow as farmers become more skilled in selecting the crops they wish to cultivate. In Buwun Mas Village, West Lombok, farmers have begun farming watermelons, and Sampurna is one of the young farmers doing this. “Watermelons are perfect if rainfall is low. I planted 6 parcels with an investment of IDR 4,000,000 (USD 280), and within 4 months was able get a harvest worth IDR 15,000,000 (USD 1,050). I purposely did not plant corn. Look at that corn over there, it is stunted due to the lack of water,” says Sampurna, as he pointed to the cornfield next to his. In Songgajah village, Dompu Regency, Masnin chose to plant tobacco. “I planted tobacco because it thrives in the heat. Not to mention the fact that a company has already said they would buy my crop along with mentoring me on how to cultivate it through to harvesting. In the past I raised chili but if it gets too hot, chili withers, so along with some friends, we tried tobacco. Tabaco is also safe from the threat of wild animals. I hope that with seeds for 12,000 plants, I will get a profit of IDR 20,000,000 (USD 1,400).”
Disaster Preparedness Sambelia is a district in East Lombok, that historically had never experienced flooding. But since 2006, sadly it has become a regular occurrence.
Sugian, together with Dara Kunci, and Madayin are the villages most at risk of flooding in Sambelia. Because of this, WN’s local partner in East Lombok LPSDM selected all three to be included in the program. One of the strategies used to strengthen communities was to create a special group called the Community Disaster Management Group (CDMG), whose members have the responsibility to share the results of the rainfall predictions throughout their villages.
Left: Earthquake Simulation Lasi Village, Dompu. Right: Disaster mitigation through tree planting in South Kuripan Village, West Lombok
Based on the information received from WN and ITB, in all three villages the CDMG informed their communities that in the months of December 2016, and January-March 2017, there would be heavy rainfall with the potential for flooding. They then made the correct preparations and a contingency plan should flooding occur. Working with the village officials, from December 2016 to February 2017 the CDMG readied early warning systems, evacuation tools, controlled evacuation routes and selected and made-known safe assembly points. They encouraged all residents to prepare critical provisions, safeguard valuables and be prepared to
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If the village experiences 3 - 5 days of constant rainfall, the local government sends out warnings to villagers to prepare for possible flooding. As described by Mrs. Emas, from Sugian Village about her experience in 2006: “It was night and there was the sound of thunder coming from the hills above us. We were scared and confused. And then came a flash flood! As long as I have lived here this had never happened. We ran to the hills carrying older people and children, abandoning everything we owned. Our houses were destroyed along with all of our livestock.” Floods have since reoccurred in 2012, 2014, and 2017, with locals now accepting that they will occur roughly every two years.
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quickly and safely move elderly people, children, and livestock to the protected sites and away from potential danger. The predicted floods occurred on 7 February 2017 in Sugian and 11 Februari 2017 in Dara Kunci and Madayin, and unfortunately proved to be far worse than anything experienced before. The water flow could not be blocked, so dikes burst and bridges between villages were washed away, resulting in villages becoming completely cut off from one another. Paddy fields were submerged under water and become fields of rocks and debris, roads turned into rivers, trees were felled, buildings and houses were demolished, and there was no electricity for five days. But a positive difference to the previous flooding was the reaction of the communities. When the first thunder of flood waters could be heard, the CDMG activated the alert systems, set off warning sirens using loudspeakers in the mosques and musholla, as well as using tongkek (traditional bamboo instrument). Hearing the warnings, and carrying their already-prepared belongings, villagers hurried along the evacuation route to the prepared places of safety. There was no panic as had occurred in the past. Because of the early warnings given to the whole communities, injuries and material losses were greatly reduced from those suffered in previous years. People had sufficient time to protect their valuables and secure their properties and livestock. After evacuating the communities to their safe points, the CDMGs continued to monitor the most dangerous areas, keeping people well away. Once the worst of the initial flooding was over, the CDMG started collecting data on the number of IDPs, and coordinated with the government and local clinics in the distribution of food stocks and medical aid. Each step in the disaster response was done according to the procedures developed by CDMG under the USAID/OFDA project. CDMG Make Preparations in Cendi Manik, West Lombok Cendi Manik is a village in West Lombok that experiences tidal flooding even while its beaches play a large role in the local economy, which revolves around gold mining, fishing and crabbing. The chairperson of the CDMG in Cendi Manik is Halil Munawar: “When I got the rain forecast information that between December 2016 and February 2017 there was potential for heavy flooding, my committee members and I started making preparations. We formulated contingency plans including asking the miners to stockpile rocks for 3 months. We also asked fishermen to forego sowing fish seeds just before the wet season.� And sure enough, the predictions came true when in February we suffered a major flood.
Flood Mitigation in Dara Kunci, Sugian and Songgajah Songgajah is a village located in low land floodplains, surrounded by hills which used to be forested but are now bare. Whenever there are heavy rains, the river that flows through the village overflows and floods houses and surrounding fields, a situation made worse because the river is often full of rubbish.
(Songgajah Farmer) “With the forecasts we can learn when to expect floods so that together we can clean the river a couple times before the rainy season arrives. In previous years, we lost livestock, and crops along the riverbank were destroyed because the river over-flowed. That doesn’t happen anymore.”
Constructing stone gabions to mitigate flooding in Dara Kunci village – an example of a CDMG and local government working together in disaster mitigation
Similar actions took place in Dara Kunci and Sugian villages, where villagers were able to take steps to normalize the rivers in their villages. The Dara Kunci community was able to allocate IDR 180 million (USD 12,600) to dredge its river and create a levee and rock barriers 290 meters long, while Sugian received government aid to normalize 300 meters of its river.
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Ibu Badriah
Before joining WN’s program, villagers from Songgajah would gather together to clean out the river after floods. But now the community led by the CDMG, can anticipate when the flooding will occur and so gather together to clean the river before the start of the wet season.
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Drs. Imran M. Hasan (Head of Planning of BPBD Dompu)
“Pemda Dompu has already agreed to purchase the rainfall app. If we can now also get the separate app for predicting disasters, then our preparation plans 36 DRR will be complete!”
Lalu Muhammad Guntur Gagarin (Section Head, Prevention and Preparedness, BPBD West Lombok) “With the rainfall data and the existence of the DRR-Forum, our response time to floods last year was faster. There were no barriers among government offices. Planning was more focused and directed, and coordination between different departments was done much quicker.”
Planning of BPBD is more Focused The BPBD in East, Central, and West Lombok, Dompu and Nagekeo regencies are all strong supporters of the rainfall prediction program. Among the many benefits it brings is the ability for regions to estimate the potential for meteorological disasters and to plan accordingly. “If the forecasts can be put on an Android application for handphones, I will allocate the necessary funds for it!” said Drs. Imran M. Hasan, Head of the Working Group for Disaster Management of Dompu Regency. The strong belief in the forecasting model is echoed by the BPBD in all the other four regencies, as well as the DRR-Forums who request the information on a regular basis. Drs. H. Lalu Wirakarma, M.M., is head of the DRR-Forum in Central Lombok Regency: “Honestly, before WN started this program, we didn’t know what to do. It has motivated us to review all the villages under our care and identify those we can designate as ‘Desa Tangguh’ 6 (Disaster resilient villages). We can then use the survey results from the Desa Tangguh program to push for Regency funding for the forecasting program,” said Wirakarma. Drs. H. Muhammad, who is head of BPBD Central Lombok says that his staff are the most enthusiast participants during the rainfall forecasting presentations which WN and ITB hold. According to Muhammad, “If there is a long drought over a large area in Central Lombok, the potential for later flooding is greatly increased. Because of this, disaster mitigation greatly necessitates the use of this rainfall data.” The chief for Prevention and Preparedness of BPBD Central Lombok, H. Lendek Jayadi, SE, MM, supports the collaboration between the BPBD and the DRR-Forum to procure the Android app: “Actually, this data is important to a whole host of other offices, not just the Agency [BPBD] or the DRR-Forum, but also the Agriculture Department and Department for the Environment.”
6. The Desa Tangguh program is a government program with the goal of increasing 5,000 villages’ resilience to disasters. A ‘Resilient Village’ is a village that has independent capacity to manage the threat of disasters, and also to recover immediately from the adverse effects of disasters.
Rainfall Forecasting as a New Development Approach Using the rainfall projections is a very new community development approach for WN and their partners. Using sophisticated technology created by expert meteorologists differs from a community empowerment model which is the trade mark of WN across the globe. But this new approach still places local residents at the center, as active participants analyzing their own environmental conditions and using their local potential as a way out of problems faced by their own communities. Marselinus Mau
“We started out with one or two locals with who we had a close relationship with. When the predictions proved accurate, we became more confident. After that in 2016, we felt ready to socialize them on a larger scale.”
YMTM already had enormous trust with their communities from their work over many years on agroforestry and communal land distribution, and so already had very close relations with many village government and traditional power structures. But even this prior relationship was not enough to overcome the initial skepticism they faced in their early socialization efforts. YMTM chose to foster even closer personal relations with a number of key elders who they convinced to implement the program in their own fields. This strategy proved effective Although it was slow-going at first, the projections proved accurate and the results of the farmers soon reached the ears of the Nagekeo Regency Regional Organizations Authority (OPD) which is a body that could possibly take over funding of the apps. Not only that but a strategic position for Marselinus Mau was established when he was elected chairperson of the DRR-Forum for Nagekeo Regency.
The Rainfall predictions are widely circulated by YMTM Flores throughout the communities of Nagekeo
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(Coordinator, YMTM Flores)
Even so, using the forecasting model creates interesting challenges for WN and its partners. What’s the best approach for combining bottomup community empowerment with the forecasts which are based on topdown expert analysis? How can we assure local communities with deeply engrained traditions and ancient wisdoms of the benefits of the forecasts? And how can local partner staff and field assistants reassure themselves that the forecasts can replace or at least enhance traditions such as those used in setting the village planting calendar, which have been practiced and passed down between generations for decades?
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Being the first organisation to bring this technology to Nagekeo Regency, YMTM’s reputation as the pioneering institution in this field has grown. It is now widely viewed as have special expertise in rainfall data, which positions it well for the future as this approach to improving farming can only grow. For WN’s partners in Lombok - LPSDM, BD and PSP, they still need to concentrate on advocacy in order to secure government commitments to take over the program. But with many successes in the field, it shouldn’t be too long before the government comes on board, and a lot of remarkable work has already been done in convincing farmers of the benefits of following this model. Amir Hamzah (or Pak Emo as he is called by the locals) is one of LESPEL’s staff, who says that trying to convince farmers to join the program is no easy undertaking. “Local people in Dompu believe that predicting when the rain will fall are not the province of mankind, but are only the province of God as stated in the Al-Quran. But I remind them that not only does the Al-Quran direct people to read things that are explicitly expressed, but also to read things which are implicitly expressed, which includes signs in nature. Thanks be to God, this explanation clears up a lot of the resistance,” says Pak Emo. When the data proved to be correct several times over, the locals conferred on Mr. Amir the title of “Rain Diviner.” This work can only continue if it is recognised by the community as benefiting them, and it will only continue to benefit them if the predictions remain accurate. Dr. Armi Susandi MT of ITB who is the main technical lead on this work, states that ideally the rainfall projections, which are considered valid for five years, needs to be updated every 2.5 years as their accuracy starts to decline around this time. If routine updating is not done, the accuracy will decline and if this occurs, it is not hard to imagine the negative effects it will have on the communities and on the farmers’ trust towards WN and their local partners.
Top: Amir Hamzah, LESPEL staff, Dompu Bottom: Director, LESPEL and Regional Director, WN on a field visit
WN’s local partners now have this new information which they feel is of great value to the communities they serve. Their status as middlemen who are able to translate the technicalities of the projections into a language which can easily be understood by the communities they work with is critical, as is their role in advocating for local government to get involved.
The rainfall data is also being used by Bapak Adim, the chief of Montong Sapah Village, to revitalize the role of the CDMG in the village. Adim feels that the rainfall prediction model represents a method that can be more easily accessed by the general community and is more democratic, compared with the traditional system based astronomical calendars that could only be divined by specialist elders reading the stars. Adim, Chief of Montong Sapah Village
Admin’s strategy to increase the effectiveness of the program was to combine the village’s SCG with the CDMG in Montong Sapah, so that the CDMG does not only respond after a disaster strikes but it can also take steps to prepare or prevent them. The importance of the role of local government is recognized by the staff of Berugak Dese, WN’s NGO partner in Central Lombok: “People like Bapak Adim are really needed in villages in the southern area of Lombok, which includes Montong Sapah. Leaders who have the authority, drive, and who actively urge people to use the model. Generally speaking, villages in the north took to the program faster than those in the south because the northern regencies of Central Lombok have been involved with outreach programs in the past. Only since 2017 have people in the south been convinced of the rainfall predictions.”
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Another local partner LPSDM in East Lombok, thinks that the projections provide a valuable “legacy” both for the institution and for the community. According to M. Azri Imaduddin, LPSDM’s Program Supervisor, “Truly, this program makes us proud because through it we are able to provide very valuable information which will be useful to farmers for a long time to come.” LPSDM is optimistic that the program will be of continuing use to the communities because of how relevant it for the people for their farming, for their basic livelihoods, and for disaster mitigation - issues that have a great impact on the daily lives of all communities in eastern Indonesia.
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GOVERNMENT POLICY
The success of the program has pushed the governments of the five regencies to commit to include the rainfall prediction models into their provincial planning programs, as this is an opportunity for regions to develop policy based on hard data. All five regency governments committed to allocating funding in their 2019 budgeting cycle to purchase an Android PCH app through which all the farmers in their regencies can access the rainfall prediction models. Nagekeo Regency is one step ahead, as the Agriculture and Food Security Agency included the app in their 2019 workplan (Rencana Kerja Dinas).
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BASED ON REAL DATA
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Support from the government to adopt the rainfall pattern prediction models developed by WN has been growing in the five regencies targeted by the program. “We decided to include the procurement of the rainfall prediction app in our 2019 planning, so next year we will take over the program,” stated Kosmas D. Lana SH.,MSi, Acting Regency Head, Nagekeo Regency. Kosmas D. Lana SH. MSi, Acting Regency Head, Nagekeo
Kosmas D. Lana SH. MSi (Acting Regency Head (Bupati), Nagekeo Regency) “The rainfall app will answer a longawaited dream of using technology to create policy which better manages our regency government.”
Drs. Imran M. Hasan (Head of Planning, Regional Disaster Management Agency (BPBD), Dompu) ”We will allocate funds to buy the projections, especially for disaster planning. This program is important because it simplifies planning and preparedness.”
Other testimonies showing the commitment of Nagekeo officials include those of Oliva Monika Mogi, Secretary of the Agriculture and Food Security Agency: “We included the budget for purchasing the app in our 2019 annual work plans.” These statements are reinforced by Agustinus Fernandes, SE (Chief, Agency for Regional Development, Nagekeo): “The app will serve as the entry point for our regency government into a digital system of planning and budgeting. In fact, it will become a monitoring tool for measuring the effectiveness of our regency employees, because our citizens can directly observe the effectiveness of the programs.” Similar sentiments are shared by Drs. Imran M. Hasan, Head of Planning for the Regional BPBD, Dompu: ”We will allocate funds to buy the rainfall prediction app especially for disaster planning. Having this data is important for us because it simplifies planning and preparedness.” Intentions such as this also came from Yuliadin S.Sos, Chairperson for the Regency Legislature (DPRD) of Dompu Regency, who stated their readiness to use theirs’ and other related government departments’ budgets to procure the app. A similar commitment to include a budget to buy the app in their annual plans was communicated by the Regency Secretary of Dompu, H. Agus Buhari, who gave assurances that the Regency Head would support the program. Through the DRR-Forums, a number of WN’s local NGO partners succeeded in pushing government departments and regency DPRDs to adopt the program. Nurul Ilham, from the East Lombok Housing Authority, who is also a member of the DRR-Forum states: “Using the rainfall data, when we had a coordinating meeting with the Provincial Housing Authority, we were able to give them an accurate schedule for when we would be constructing low cost housing designated for the poorest families. This was highly appreciated by the Provincial Government of West Nusa Tenggara Province.” While in West Lombok, the rainfall predictions become an advocacy tool for the DRR-Forum.
Yuliadin S.Sos (Chairperson for the Regency Legislature of Dompu Regency) “I’m ready to fight to fund this program!”
Because the forum was able to show in detail the level of risk villages were facing from flooding and droughts, it was able to secure funds from the West Lombok DPRD totaling IDR 100 million (USD 7,000) to undertake a risk assessment of 12 villages.
Another factor that helps in the advocacy efforts are the testimonies of farmers in meetings, hearings and workshops who themselves have experienced the efficacy of the predictions. These farmers are important in assuring government officials of the importance of the program. These government commitments must now be closely watched by WN in 2019 – 2020, so that the procurement of the app and the implementation of the program are embedded in the government’s planning systems, and so can assist in the further development of the region.
Regional Disaster Planning Agency staff socializes PCH in Beringin Jaya village, Dompu
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Such growth and variety in the number of government departments and agencies willing to commit funding to take over the program illustrates how successful the advocacy efforts done by WN and their local NGO partners to market the program have been. Although as of writing, nothing has yet been finalized, their commitment to allocate the funds is a very big step in the right direction. As stated by the Acting Bupati of Nagekeo: “This activity will really help our government because as long as we have relied on traditional systems, we have been unable to predict and then act upon climate anomalies. Traditions are fine but not always reliable. We can rely on the rainfall data from WN because it utilizes technology based on hard science.”
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CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
GOING FORWARD
The goal of this program is to reduce the risks of disasters, mainly in crop failures from planting and harvesting at the wrong time, and to protect again the risk of flooding. There are many success stories told by WN partners in implementing the rainfall prediction program across Nusa Tenggara, showing the positive contributions this program has brought. However, so that the program can progress and be sustainable, steps should be taken to improve and strengthen it. Among these initiatives are how to better integrate the rainfall model with traditional beliefs and practices; what’s the best way to share the information with farmers so that the information is widely disseminated; how best to routinely update the information to ensure the most accurate predictions; and how to keep advocating to the regency governments to use the data for their regional planning and for them to eventually take over the program?
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SMART IDEAS FOR COMMUNICATING
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T o sustain the results already achieved and to try and solidify the rainfall predictions in the minds of farmers, at the community level WN’s experience in Nusa Tenggara has shown how important it is to identify ‘pioneers’, those farmers who are willing to try new approaches and who can then convincingly pass along their ideas to other farmers to try it for themselves. WN has found that this farmer-to-farmer approach is the most effective method in influencing whether new farmers will join the program or not, especially the older generation who are not so easily convinced in using digital technology. For younger farmers who already use their handphones for multiple things throughout their day, this has not been a challenge.
•
At the government level, advocacy initiatives to convince the regency governments to adopt the program have only received the green light when very senior officials such as the Acting Regency Head of Nagekeo and the Regency Head of Dompu support the regional government departments to allocate government funds. The lesson to take is that consistent face-to-face meetings and lobbying, backed up by hard evidence of the benefits of the new approach, are needed to fix the program in the plans of the government. The DRR-Forum is already active in driving forward these processes in the five regencies, so continued support for this body is critical.
•
The communication methods used by WN’s local partners when they inform farmers of when the rain will fall are still dominated by face-to-face meetings, because this method of communication is the one farmers across Nusa Tenggara are most comfortable with, especially the older generations. A typical scenario would see staff from WN’s local partners hold meetings in the villages where they would bring multiple printed copies of the monthly rainfall maps which would then be studied together with the farmers. Any important notes would be handwritten on the maps and then left with the communities, who would then refer back to these paper maps throughout the year. A different approach used by YMTM Flores and PSP in Lombok was to convert the rainfall maps into a seasonal calendar table which were then easily copied enmasse. Based on discussions with participants, it was discovered that some of the farmers didn’t understand how to read the maps and so required continual instruction in the field to implement the detailed information they had learnt in the classroom setting.
So while it was clear that face-to-face interaction was the most effective communication approach used by WN’s partners, it is very labor intensive and time-consuming. Attempts were made to overcome this, such as encouraging peer-to-peer learning amongst farmers through exchange visits between villages or groups, which over the course of the program became a very important teaching method. But WN will need to continue to find a balance between expanding the number of farmers who are able to access the information, with the time and human resources needed to ensure the farmers are properly schooled in how to use the information effectively. This will become even more critical when farmers are eventually able to access the data through their phones.
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It’s also important to have a well-planned communication strategy that takes into account the importance of traditional wisdom and local beliefs, and the multitude of different ways information is usually communicated within communities. This is especially important in Nagekeo Regency, where farmers continued to cling to the traditional system and timing of planting their rice crops. To persuade farmers to try the new method, YMTM needed to involve the local village elder who was responsible for setting the traditional planting calendar, who agreed to work alongside them to study how it might be integrated into their village traditions. WN was always aware that to get farmers to accept the new approach, it cannot be seen to be ignoring or replacing traditional practices, but rather as enhancing them.
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Advocating government policy, including village governments, has started to yield successes. For example, in Dara Kunci and Sugian villages in East Lombok, the CDMGs and village authorities collaborated to mitigate flood disasters through constructing levees and stone gabions. At the regency level, government offices such as the BPBD, Agriculture Department and the DRRForum worked together with WN partners to study the potential of the data in mitigating disasters in their regencies. When the DRR-Forum is trying to change government policy, they need to use a person who understands how the power dynamics work in that particular regency; who understands the specific needs of the communities; and who possesses influence and a close relationship with regency government officials. Finding this individual and then giving them a senior position such as the chairperson in the forum is an effective strategy for successful
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advocacy. This was attested to by WN Program Associate Sasmita Ibarna: ”We had a negative experience once when one of the forum leaders in Lombok was not fit for the job, meaning the advocacy program did not run as it should have. If this happens it requires a lot energy to get it back on course.” •
WN has a continuing role to assist the regency governments to ensure their allocation of funding for the development of the rainfall apps materializes and to keep the predictions accurate based on consistently updated rainfall data. WN also needs to make sure that the regency governments continue to use the rainfall data in their development planning; to train government staff - especially field workers, so that they are fully competent on both the technical side of the predictions and in community development, so that the information continues to be disseminated accurately to farmer groups and communities. This means that the role of WN and their local partners does not end when the government takes over the program.
To match the conditions predicted in the rainfall studies, WN promotes the planting of local crops that can adapt to the changing climate conditions. It’s very important to develop these crops in the dry land farming areas of Nusa Tenggara.