FEBRUARY 2022
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TRADE & COMMODITIES
Coal trade looking more lively
DCi 8
Richard Scott, Bulk Shipping Analysis Global coal trade has revived in the past twelve months. After a severe setback in the previous year, over half of the decline was reversed in 2021. Amid an upturn in world economic activity and energy consumption as the coronavirus pandemic’s adverse effects receded, coal demand and imports in many countries strengthened last year. Another increase seems possible in 2022, but longer-term prospects remain negative because of the general shift towards cleaner energy. Based on provisional estimates, a vigorous recovery in world seaborne coal trade last year probably exceeded 70mt (million tonnes), following the previous downturn of about 120mt when imports
into all the main importing countries weakened. The 2021 expansion was broadly spread among importers, assisted by tight supplies of alternative energy (especially natural gas and renewables) in several countries, benefiting numerous coal export suppliers. While the recovery in energy consumption around the world looks set to continue this year, there is less certainty about coal’s participation. Some signs suggest that any further growth in coal trade will be limited in extent and duration. A possibility of a flattening or even a reduction in 2022 is evident. The recent international climate change conference intensified attention on the priority of
reducing greenhouse gas emissions and cutting coal use. Nevertheless, coal is likely to remain a vital energy mix component in many countries, supporting coal import demand.
SUPPORTIVE ECONOMIC ACTIVITY Activity in the world economy generally, and in many energy-consuming industries, regained momentum in the past twelve months when the worst effects of the pandemic receded. Energy demand revived and coal usage participated in the revival. Based on the broad indicator of gross domestic product (GDP), the world economy’s growth in 2021 was 5.9% according to the International Monetary
