Dubai Keynes Society Newsletter Term 1 2023 by dubaicollege

Dubai Keynes Society NEWSLETTER TERM 1 2023-2024

Contents John Maynard Keynes Note from the Heads The Effect of Technological Change on Inequality in Advanced Economies (Christian Ruiz)

Problems affecting the Banking Industry (Philip Manipadam)

Touch Screen Tipping: The way forward, or the eventual tipping point? (Eleftheria Sermpeti)

Poverty and Economies: Boon or Bane? (Raghav Jasuja)

How Loss Aversion Shapes our Decision-Making (Nishk Moorjani)

Will the US Dollar remain as the world’s reserve currency? (Atharva Pandey)

To Stimulate or To Stay Safe: the UK’s Autumn Budget Highlights (Hyder Ali)

Do we live in an era of de-globalisation? (Shyan Ann Teoh)

Smart Phones: Luxury or Necessity? A case study of the iPhone (Stef van Eck)

Turkey and its ‘Erdoganomics’ (Malak Ibrahim)

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Are inferior goods actually inferior? (Charlie Banger)

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Balancing economic growth and environmental protection (Pierce Ashton)

Should we introduce a human organ trade market? (Kaila Kondas Niza)

The underlying cost of the American Opioid crisis (Alex Mantzavinatos)

ECOWAS and their role in the Niger Coup D’état in 2023 (Aaliyah Haque)

How the UAE benefits despite, and from, global challenges (Kaila Jafar)

Japan trip

Overlook of Term Seminars

Note from the heads This term has been a fantastic first term for us as heads, and we are so grateful to everyone who contributes to the sessions. This includes all our speakers, members and writers. Above all, we are moved by your interest in learning beyond the Economics GCSE & A-Level courses, reflected in your speeches, articles and contributions in seminars. We would also like to thank Mr. Christopher for all the guidance and support he offers. Look out for what the next term has in store! If anyone has speech ideas to organize or has written any economics–related essays for competitions, please do not hesitate to work with us and contact dks@dubaicollege.org. Keep up the positive attitudes, the dedication to the society and above all the love for economics! - The DKS team (Christian, Eleftheria, Philip)

Effect of Technological Change on Inequality in Advanced Economies Christian Ruiz

We are experiencing a digital revolution, where we constantly adapt to major technological change, with advances such as AI and quantum computing. The potential, driven by innovation, is enormous for economies, however, this also introduces major challenges. Policies have been very slow The Pourqoui Pas (Book, 2023) when adapting to new dynamics. Digitization has reshaped markets, with many now worrying about the “digital divide”. This refers to an economic and social inequality regarding access to, use of, and impact of information. Technological change and market conditions controlled by slow-adapting policies resulted in income inequality growth. The diffusion of new technologies across sectors and businesses has important implications for their economic impact and the distribution of reward. Current macroeconomic statistical impact: -

Income has shifted from labour to capital, increasing the inequality between firms and workers.

Income inequality has risen in all advanced economies since the 1980s, which was a period of boom in digital technologies. The income percentage share of the richest 1% has more than doubled since the early 1980s, from 11% to 22%.

The share of the top 1% in wealth has risen to around 40%.

Income inequality has risen in emerging economies, such as India, too.

According to the IMF, Technological change has had double the 4 effect of globalisation, regarding inequality.

Moreover, there has been a widening gap between firms, created by the digital revolution. The benefits of the digital revolution have not been spreading widely across markets, having mostly remained within The Wall Street Journal (Ariely, 2015) the larger firms, and as a result, Is first come first serve really fair? productivity growth has been stronger in leading firms at the technological frontier. Aggregate labour productivity growth in the decade to 2015 halved compared to the preceding two decades. The illustrated disparity in productivity performance between firms has slowed down productivity growth and this has been a major factor for the rise in income disparities.

The growing profitability gap between firms is reflected in wage gaps too. Wages have risen in better-performing firms but by less than the rise in productivity. In the United States, labour productivity increased by 72% between 1973 and 2014, while the real hourly compensation of the median worker increased by only 9%. This decoupling of wages from productivity contributed to a shift in income distribution from labour to capital. 5

While private wealth has soared, public wealth has declined, hobbling the capacity of public policy. We require government evaluation, to align policies with current realities and prioritise competition. Global competition must be controlled across borders too, with a lot of focus on proprietary agglomeration of data. Furthermore, there is a need for more government R&D (halved in comparison to GDP since the 1980s in the USA), which focuses on supplying the public good of basic research and often produces spill overs that benefit the economy at large. Finally, we must approach the impact of technological change on employment by looking at it as a dynamic adjustment process of old jobs giving way to new ones.

MIT Technology Review (Twitter, 2016)

Job-replacing tech has directly driven the income gap since the late 1980s (Dizikes, 2020). 1987 was an inflection point where jobs lost stopped being replaced by an equal number of similar workplace opportunities. This implies “skill-biased” technological change where the value of high–skilled workers grows the most (Acemoglou, 2020). Again, this points out the importance of retraining and the creation of “synergy” between human labour and technology in maintaining the value of labour. 6

Problems affecting the Banking Industry Philip Manipadam Banks, as they primarily exist today, exist as a kind of ‘bundled’ service, where one bank provides all the financial services you might need. The primary services you can get with banks using this model include deposit taking, maturity transformations (short term liabilities used to fund long-term assets), lending/credit assessment and provision of payments. Banks also use a branch based model to provide physical locations for these services to take place- while one specific branch might not provide every service, all you need to do is go to another branch of the same bank to get that service, thanks to the bundled model. This is very popular with consumers and customers because of its convenience, as well as the person to person interactions that make getting these services easier and more pleasant. As such, this model is, by far the most widely used banking model in the world. The World’s largest Banks: The Banking industry is one of the largest industries in the world; banks manage roughly 370 trillion USD in assets worldwide. This number is predicted to nearly double within the next decade, going up to 500-550 trillion USD. While in the past, a large portion of worldwide assets were moved primarily by American Banks, this has rapidly changed. Presently, the largest banks in the world are Chinese, with 5 of the top 10 spots being occupied by Asian banks, 3 being European, and only 2 being American. Just 50 years ago, 7 of the 10 largest banks in the world were American, with the Bank of America being number 1. However, from 2019 onwards, the top 4 spots have been held by Chinese banks. China’s explosive growth as an economy has lead to Chinese banks dominating competition, a trend which has also continued when looking at assets controlled by banks. 7

Falling Profitability and Valuations: Banks, worldwide, have been steadily losing the ability to convert equity funding into profitability.

The global financial crash, coupled with the pandemic have resulted in low returns on equity. Although recent interest rate hikes have helped in recovering returns, it is still low compared to the pre-crash eras, and isn’t likely to reach that peak again. In addition to this, Banks have had rapidly falling price to book ratios, and are consistently 70% lower than other sectors. The crash of 2007 and the recent pandemic have only served to exacerbate this gap. This discount gap indicates investors doubts on banks’ ability to overcome profitability challenges, as well as the sustainability of existing bank business models. This means that investors are slowly turning away from banks as a reliable method of earning money through interest, as banks no longer net the same returns or profitability they used to in the past. Pain Points in Banking There are several factors negatively affecting banks. Evolving customer expectations is leading to banks being seen as a commodity. Because of this, customers are now treating banks like a commodity, and expecting low prices and high service speeds/flexibility, which banks are finding hard to adapt to. Increased competition from lowered barriers to entry has meant that banks are now struggling to retain/maintain as many customers as they used to, as there are many options for

customers nowadays. High regulatory burdens have acted as a barrier to banks’ growth, as capital requirements, money laundering/movement, as well as bank secrecy have all become heavily regulated recently. Legacy tech issues, combined with ineffective utilisation of data has meant that banks cannot effectively utilise the vast amounts of data they have stored. Banks’ had implemented many of their technological systems in the 70s/80s/90s. This legacy tech is no longer up to standard today, and is often difficult to use/procure data from. Banks have massive amounts of data on all their consumers, but as their technology is outdated, this data often isn’t effectively utilised, so service often isn’t as efficient as it could be. Conclusion Banks have been consistently plagued by a variety of problems starting from 2007. They are core pillars of the economy, but the above factors, in addition with things like external shocks mean that a majority of banks are struggling to keep up with today’s rapidly changing world. A major overhaul of a lot of bank systems is necessary for banks to continue successfully operating into the future.

Touch screen tipping: the way forward, or the eventual tipping point? Eleftheria Sermpeti Tips. The unstable construct of a minimum wage in the USA, as seen and believed by most unsuspecting consumers. The ‘tipping culture’ in the USA has painted a stark line between this nation and the rest of the world, although originating from European settlers in the 1950s. But how does this work, and how is the believed model of ‘tips as a wage’ ethical?

To tip or not to tip? (New York Times)

The short answer is, it’s not. That’s not because workers don’t get paid, it’s because the information consumers are fed with is untrue. The reason why companies are so preoccupied with getting tips and gaining more revenue than just of sales is because of the minimum wage laws. The USA minimum wage is $7.25 an hour. This is different for servers able to gain tips, where the minimum wage is $2.13 an hour. However, contrary to popular belief, servers are not worse off because if their tips for an hour’s worth of work does not end up summing to at least $7.25, the employer must make up the difference. Firms are profit maximizers, and labour is the largest cost of production. So, they want to influence consumers to tip as much as possible to have to make up the least amount of difference or avoid it altogether. 10

Although this is perfectly rational behaviour from the firm’s side, it results in extremely irrational consumer behaviour, especially when there’s a nudge to tip using touch screen options. The combination of cognitive bias and emotions, especially of guilt, result in a downpour of tips for service workers. This works using a classic example of the anchoring bias for consumers. When carrying out a purchase, the consumer at the last stage must select from 3-4 little rectangles announcing ’18%’ the first one, ‘22%’ the second one, and ’30%’ the third one. The last one, ‘no tip’. More than a third of the time, the consumers will blindly select the first option, not particularly caring that they just spent an extra fifth of their final price, a habit so deeply ingrained in American society. According to professor Dipayas Biswas of University of South Florida, simply because of the way the human brain works, ‘when presented with 4 options, where the first one, is, say a 20% tip, and the last one is ‘no tip’, consumers will usually pick the first one. I won’t lie and say I haven’t been victim to this – I found myself questioning this exact thing when I walked into a New York Shake Shack and walked out having spent an extra $4 on my small fries, drink and burger. The problem with this is not that consumers are directly worse off – it’s the effects it has on future expectations for tips. ‘Tipflation,’ a term coined to describe the USA’s rising tip norms, is a looming threat posing the question of what the limit is.

The percentages only show an increasing trend – from below 15% being the average tip pre-21st century, to 25% today. The limit is forecasted to be found in the next 20 years – it is not likely to keep climbing as people will be so greatly discouraged from consuming public services they will have no choice but to drop prices. Of course, the alternative clear in some people’s minds is simply to make more rational and aware decisions to tip lower, choosing own tip values, or tipping in cash. Although the findings in a June 2023 Bankrate survey of nearly 2,500 Americans pointed to 32% being ’annoyed’ by pre-entered tip amounts on touch screen payment systems, they consider themselves ‘annoying’ should they press the last box, no tip, or take the time to input a lower value for a tip. This shows how people’s guilt when not tipping leads to this vast tipping culture that has grown to something highly uncontrollable for consumers. Questions rise. Is it up to the government to start reigning touch screen tipping in? Or is it up to consumers to work on emotional decision-making for the sake of their increased benefit? After all, firms are only continuing to benefit.

Poverty and Economies: Boon or Bane? Raghav Jasuja Poverty. Referred to famously as a ‘social phenomenon’ by German philosopher Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel in the late 18th and early 19th centuries. From an Edexcel GCSE point of view, we are taught that poverty is a market failure emerging when the (labour) market forces of supply and demand fail to provide utmost equality for individuals based on their skillset and abilities. We only focus on the significant inequality of opportunity caused by poverty. But not all is doom and gloom; in fact, there are even some hidden upsides that poverty can have that may suggest it is not the a large thorn in an economy’s side. Whilst I will later be pointing out the possible advantages that poverty can have on an economy, I must first address the concerns that poverty can cause for a state and its economy. A state of absolute poverty is defined as living under the required amount of money to sustain a living (states as $2.15 as per 2017 Purchasing Power Parity by the World Bank). Those who fall below this poverty line can only afford the bare necessities. This means that these individuals cannot afford quality healthcare, and education for their children meaning that these children are unable to improve their social standing, which an educational degree would certainly improve. From the economy’s viewpoint, this would result in the overall skill and health of the labour force decreasing, causing productivity (output per worker per hour) to decrease. This would lead to a reduction in output and economic growth as a result.

Furthermore, poverty can result in several externalities that are detrimental to an economy. Linked to my above points, if there is a lack of education and healthcare that the poorest can access, the government of a country will have to increase its expenditure on hospitals and schools, either to provide these services for free or at least at a subsidised price. This spending would result in there being lower funds for the government to provide for other services, which is an opportunity cost (the value of the next best alternative forgone when a choice is made).

Additionally, high poverty rates are often closely linked with high crime rates (as it creates conditions that can increase the possibility of criminal behaviour in individuals). As a result of increased crime, additional money would be expended on law enforcement and prevention of crime, once again highlighting an opportunity cost for governments and the entire economy. Yet, in the short run, poverty can also significantly aid firms, and therefore an economy. This is due to the fact that poverty rates often skyrocket in times of recession, where incomes drop. As a result of poverty, the supply of labour can also increase (from S1 to S2 on the diagram below). Assuming ceteris paribus (that all other factors remain unchanged), we can see that the wage rates that firms would have to pay would decrease. In the eyes of businesses and firms, this means that their total costs will decrease as well, meaning that they can reduce the prices of the good/service they provide without compromising profits. As a result, this can spur consumer spending and increase demand, such that economic output of the entire country rises, leading to economic growth. In conclusion, whilst there are certainly several downsides to poverty for the economy, there are also some very specific conditions in which poverty can actually benefit the economy, by helping it out of times of recession. Whilst these advantageous situations are extremely short term, and in the long-run, poverty will still harm an economy significantly, by capitalising on high poverty in times of recession and employing other schemes to alleviate poverty in times of a boom or economic prosperity, governments could maximise the positive side effects felt by the economy.

How Loss Aversion Shapes our DecisionMaking Nishk Moorjani A discipline to some that may seem useless when in actuality sheds light and fills in the gaps of classical theories, determining the straightforward yet complex and intricate methods that cause humans to act irrationally. Behavioural Economics uses external factors such as cognitive biases that influence human behavior in order to highlight the many instances in which individuals' actions deviate from traditional economic theories and subsequently cannot be explained using them. Loss aversion is a cognitive bias in which individuals would prefer avoiding losses rather than acquiring equivalent gains. Humans perform irrational behaviours in their everyday life, and exhibit a strong aversion to losses, going to great lengths in order to avoid them. This may be why the emotion you feel losing $10 on a bet is a lot stronger than winning $10 playing a game. But the phenomenon does not just exist in our daily lives, they can have impacts on a larger scale in terms of financial decisionmaking. For instance, you may see investors holding onto a poorly performing stock, hoping to avoid the incurred loss, when all the signs point to the most rational decision being to sell the stock in order to protect themselves from an anticipated further loss. Why would you take a buy two get one for free offer when you went into the store only intending to buy one in the first place? Our brains are innate to avoiding as many losses as possible, which subsequently influences how we make decisions related to our assets. Consider these expensive extended warranties on most electronics that you purchase, the premise of it only exists based on loss aversion. You buy the insurance in order to avoid the losses of expensive replacement costs, even if the cost outweighs any expected benefits that you may incur. Understanding concepts such as loss aversion can allow Policymakers to use them in order to maximise the benefit they 15

incur by increasing the chances of desired behaviour occurring. The most prominent industry where this is present is marketing; why do you think when there is a sale you’re always told that you’re going to save 25% of your money rather than gain the 25%? Offering discounts and limited sales creates this fear of missing out among consumers, causing them to feel zealous about their potential purchase due to the highlighted scarcity of the product. Financial decision-making can be strengthened by accepting loss aversion rather than ignoring its implications. Investors can adopt techniques that promote an equal relationship between risk and return by becoming conscious of the bias. Diversification of investments and precise goal-setting can lessen the psychological effect of losses and stimulate more rational decision-making. Therefore, individuals can be nudged towards making better judgments by designing effective initiatives and improving their well-being overall. The area of behavioral economics is always developing, revealing unique biases and psychological truths. This can cause us to go closer to establishing a more precise and thorough model of decision-making, one that takes into account the intricacies of human psychology, rather than ignoring it.

Will the U.S. dollar remain as the world's reserve currency? Atharva Pandey For centuries, the world has had always what's known as a reserve currency, which is in essence the primary currency used for international transactions. Historically, these were the currencies of European powers that were often backed with precious metals, typically gold. Currently, the US dollar is the world’s dominant global currency, because of the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1944 that pegged 44 world currencies to the dollar, and also the abandonment of the gold standard in 1971, giving the dollar global supremacy. Why is the USD so powerful? There are various factors which has led to the US dollar maintaining its dominant currency status, for facilitating trade transactions between different countries. One such factor is the dollar acting as a de facto “Petrocurrency”, where oil exporting countries (OPEC) accept primarily payments in US dollars. This occurred because oil exporting countries struck an agreement with the US to accept US dollars as the sole currency used to purchase crude oil. Another factor is that the US is the world's largest economy and a leading global trade partner. Until the year 2000, the US was the world’s top exporter where over 80% of countries traded with the US more than any other country. The U.S. government’s credit rating also plays a key role. Due to America’s dominant role in World War II and the Cold War, New York developed as the financial capital of the world with the dollar as its most important currency. This power continues today as the Global Financial Centres Index 33 lists New York as the world's top financial hub in 2023, followed by London.

Global investment flows indicate that demand for USD extends beyond U.S. Treasury securities, as more companies are listed in . the US than in any other country. With a resilient economy, in

2022 the U.S. saw the largest inflow of FDI of any major economy. What has changed and why is De-dollarization occurring? Firstly, trading in alternative currencies has become much easier and cheaper than trading in US dollars. For example, India has signed an agreement with the UAE allowing trade to occur in rupees instead of dollars, reducing transaction costs by eliminating dollar conversions. Similarly, Brazil and Argentina are working toward developing a single South American currency “SUR” to boost regional trade and to reduce their reliance on the US dollar. Secondly, decline of US exports in global trade has also fueled the de-dollarization. Post 2000, China has developed as a leader in the global trade. In July 2023, Nikkei analysis confirmed that the yuan was used in 49% of China's cross-border transactions (mainly with Russia), surpassing the dollar for the first time. Thirdly, the rise of US public debt in recent decades and US budget disputes regarding the debt ceiling has weakened investors’ confidence in the credibility of the US government. On 1st August 2023, Fitch credit rating agencies, announced that it had downgraded the US credit rating from AAA to AA+. Finally, in an era of rising geopolitical tensions, the status of different currencies in the global financial system is becoming more and more critical. In July 2023, at the summit of the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) Russia and China called for a multipolar global currency system. There is a growing influence of the Chinese Yuan in mutual trade, and through its Belt-and-Road initiative, China is promoting the Yuan internationally. Similarly, there is a surge in the Russian Ruble’s usage with the adoption of Ruble-denominated payments for Russian natural gas supplies. Multipolar financial systems have also been discussed by the BRICS countries, calling for trade transactions in their own currencies while moving away from the U.S. dollar. In August 2023, this idea was taken even further, when six new countries were introduced to BRICS and Brazilian President (Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva) floated the idea of creating a single BRICS currency that members could use to transact with one another. 18

So is there any alternative to the US Dollar as the world's reserve currency of the global financial system? The Chinese Yuan though being the second largest economy’s currency, falls short in challenging the US dollar reserve status, mainly due to China has capital controls and its currency isn't freely convertible. The Euro is the second largest reserve currency in the world and a major threat to US dollar. However, the Euro’s global role has not increased much since its inception in 1999, largely due to the presence of deeper and larger US Financial markets. Therefore, due to continuous currency diversification in the global financial system we may see gradual moves to a multipolar financial system where dollar dominance may diminish over time. However, it is not expected that Dedollarization efforts will yield major effects anytime soon.

To Stimulate or To Stay Safe: the UK’s Autumn Budget Highlights Hyder Ali With a debt to GDP ratio of over 100%, the UK really should be playing it safe when it comes to economic policy, but the budget is doing the opposite. The UK is dealing with a multitude of problems: a downgraded growth forecast, unstable governance, and high levels of debt. As such, trying to decide on a comprehensive economic policy to solve everything is almost impossible: the government should, therefore, prioritise what is in the UK’s best interest. But in a show of what many are describing as ‘electioneering’, Rishi Sunak’s government is putting growth first, in a bid to try and restore confidence in the Conservative Party before the upcoming elections next year. Let’s take a look at the policies which have been enacted in this autumn budget. National Insurance cut from 12% to 10% National insurance is essentially a form of income tax paid on earned income. From the age of 16 to retirement, paying national insurance essentially guarantees a citizen a right to a range of benefits, including universal healthcare, a public pension programme, and unemployment benefits. In this version of the autumn budget, the rate at which citizens are charged national insurance has decreased from 12% to 10%. This is problematic: contributions to the national insurance technically act as an avenue through which the government can receive additional revenue in order to finance their spending. As a consequence of the reduced rate of contribution, the government will have less revenue, and may be forced to borrow more money to finance their projects. This would exacerbate the debt crisis, where the UK’s debt exceeds GDP. This move is unsustainable to say the least: a short term tactic to essentially boost morale within the UK’s workforce will undoubtedly have adverse effects on the economy in the long run. 20

£4.5 billion for British manufacturing This policy is one that has several different aspects to it. I’ll start with the positives: more government spending will cause an increase in aggregate demand, a measure of short term economic growth. Given the fact that the growth forecast for this year downgraded from 1.8% in March to 0.6% now, this increase in government spending will likely stimulate economic growth. Because of these growth increases, there may also be increased employment. Much of the manufacturing that was previously done in the UK has been moved to places such as China and Vietnam, where not only is the labour pool larger, but available for cheaper wages. As a result of this change, many in the UK were left structurally unemployed as the country became dominated by the tertiary sector. These increases in investment have the potential to bring some of those left structurally unemployed back into the secondary sector, lowering the UK’s unemployment rate. However, this policy isn’t all positive. Ambitious spending projects shouldn’t be on the cards for a country with a debt crisis, as it would only lead to an exacerbation of the issue. Also, the potential for economic growth is offset by one very important factor inflation. For the past two years, high UK inflation has been the headline for every second BBC news article. And if the policies put forward in this budget go through, that won’t change. With an increase in economic growth due to increased government spending, the price level (the average price of all goods and services across the UK economy) will increase, indicating inflation. By the end of 2024, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) predicts that UK inflation will be 2.9% a downgrade from the 0.9% rate predicted in March, and a far cry from the UK central bank’s target of 2% inflation. As of October 2023, UK inflation fell to 4.9%: the lowest in two years. The UK was headed on the right track when it came to measures curbing inflation. Unfortunately, Sunak’s government has almost forgotten about inflation in their bid to implement such an extravagant spending policy. Once this increased spending comes into place, inflation will increase, undoing the progress 21

the UK has been doing in trying to curb inflation over the past few years. A whole range of problematic policies have been put into place by Sunak’s government. Whether this be business tax breaks (the implementation of which will lower government revenue and exacerbate the debt crisis), or the state pension increase by 8.5% (the implementation of which will increase government spending in a time where the government is almost restricting the avenues through which it can receive revenue), the autumn budget has been created in gross negligence to what the UK’s priorities should be: fixing a debt crisis which has for so long plagued the country. However, the government has policy myopia: focusing on short term goals instead of working towards long term objectives in a clear show of ‘electioneering’. And so the question arises again: to stimulate, or to stay safe? Sunak’s government has made it clear that their objective is to stimulate the economy, whereas they should be more measured in their approach, taking more conservative goals to facilitate both their long term and short-term goals simultaneously.

Do we live in an era of deglobalisation? Shyan Ann Teoh

Globalisation can be defined as a convergence of economic and cultural systems, which in turn, promotes, and often requires integration and interdependence. However, as the world becomes increasingly divided over political, economic and moral issues, it is clear that we now live in an era of deglobalisation, one that is not built of the foundations of the Second World War with a desire to cooperate, but one that has suffered from health and economic crises that now necessitates looking inwards and strengthening domestically. The rapid modernisation of China’s economy has allowed it to rival the United States as the leading superpower. This has caused conflict, with former President Donald J. Trump escalating growing tensions in 2018 through the initiation of an economic trade war. Now, holding an anti-China stance is seen as a way to be favoured by the crowds, as seen through the recent meeting between U.S. Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy and Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-Wen in April 2023 despite warnings from China, who have labelled the meeting as a “provocation”. McCarthy’s employment of this anti-China rhetoric following his appointment as leader only after 15 grueling rounds of voting, the longest since 1859, at a time when he is lacking in political capital illustrates the strong emotional appeal it holds to gain support, and the continued usage of playing to this sentiment fuels the strong anti-China mood in Washington. China remains an area of bipartisan agreement between the two opposing parties within the US, especially with the newly established select committee on strategic competition between US and China, passed sweepingly by 365 to 65 votes, reinforcing the feud between the two superpowers. This is not only felt within Washington, but across the nation as well, especially with the partisan power of the media and with the Republican Fox News in particular, popular with a strong 43% of the country (the percentage that is Republican). 23

Additionally, this lack of willingness to integrate holds significant economic consequences. As other countries reach levels of development that rival that of the West, especially with the aid of China, having been hegemonic for so long, the West will invariably feel threatened and therefore seek to protect and strengthen domestically. Despite the ending of Trump’s presidency, economic hostility towards China has prevailed as seen through the proposed Chip 4 Alliance announced in March 2022. As an alliance between the US and the East Asian tigers of South Korea, Taiwan and Japan, this proposal is a clear attempt at weakening Chinese involvement in the supply chain for semiconductors as the alliance would aim to cover all major areas of the value chain. Although the alliance has yet to move forward due to fears of Chinese retaliation, this is a clear move away from interdependency. This is confirmed by the passage of the CHIPS and Science Act in August 2022, which provides roughly $280 billion in funding to boost research and manufacturing of semiconductors in the US, with the primary aim of retaliating against China. The US’ hostility represents a regression in the converging of economic systems and as the world’s strongest economies formerly heavily reliant on one another for trade, marks the start of a less interdependent and cooperative relationship, and heralds an era of de-globalisation. That being said, relations within the East are being strengthened as a result of China’s rise to power, forming hegemonic relationships with Africa and Latin America as part of their effort to diminish the US dollar. Most famously, the Belt and Road Initiative aims to connect China with Asia and Europe by heavily investing in infrastructure. Currently, 148 countries have joined, representing up ⅔ of the world’s population and 40% of global GDP, and have spent an estimated $1 trillion on projects. Critics warn that this initiative is a ‘Trojan Horse’, one that mirrors colonialist extraction activities and acts as a form of debt-trap diplomacy, coming in the form of loans using Chinese renminbi, which presents the risk of China using it as political leverage. Nevertheless, it is distinct in that African governments have not been coerced into such agreements and such projects have been used as leverage in domestic politics, therefore demonstrating how African nations are active participants in these decisions and are able to decide on their own terms. 24

This commitment to Africa is renewed recently with China to offer debt relief for Ethiopia whilst urging the new administrations in Kenya and Nigeria to take action. In addition, in August 2023, South Africa is set to host the leaders of BRICS. Among their agenda is the creation of a new currency to decrease dependence on the US dollar. This presents a strong argument that despite the bifurcation between US and China, the formation of rival blocs and alliances that challenge the dominance of the Western world reveals a continued desire to be interdependent. Despite this growing sense of comradery in the East, rather than strengthening global integration, and enforcing a key feature of globalisation, this has only served as a threat to the West, as seen with the rise of populist leaders using nationalist rhetoric- most recently, the victory of anti-Islam populist Geert Wilders. This depicts a shift away from globalisation and towards regionalisation, focusing on being more self-dependent economically and politically. Regionalisation can be seen to be an upcoming trend as seen with countries looking to be less interdependent and form stronger ties with those closer to home, as seen through China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the diversification of European economies. Therefore, this presents the strong argument that as the world becomes more divided over various political, economic and moral issues, countries will seek to be less cooperative and break away from the current world order built off the principles of unity from the Second World War. This has been confirmed by how the countries responded disproportionately and provide an insight into what the new world order may become. 25

Smart Phones: Luxury or Necessity? A case study of the iPhone. Stef van Eck

In the world we live in today, a smartphone has become a regular in everyone’s pockets, with the iPhone becoming a representation of the modern world's connectivity. Whether iPhones or phones in general are a luxury or necessity comes down to both consumer behaviour and economic decisions. As smartphones evolved from little bricks with a number pad to the multifunctional tools that they’ve become today, they’ve become integral to day-to-day life. Apple continuously keep innovating to solidify the iPhones status as a necessity; since the iPhone was invented in 2007 it allowed individuals to carry the internet – the combed knowledge of almost everything that is known – in their pockets. More recently, Apple have added high resolution cameras and fast processing chips to their phones to allow users to take photos similar to those from cameras to capture memories or to play complicated games to pass the time. All these additions have helped iPhones evolve from tools to lifestyle accessories or even necessities. Competition from other firms such as Samsung/Android has driven innovation as the market can be interpreted as an Oligopoly. The competition between tech giants intensifies the perception of the iPhone as a luxury item as there are many cheaper alternatives with ultimately the same function: connection to the internet and communication. However, the availability of lower-cost options that classify as smart phones suggests there is a market for it and thus suggests that the functionality of a smartphone may be a necessity with specific brand features being the luxury aspect that iPhones offer. IPhones contribute significantly to productivity and efficiency as they can be considered as capital that enhances communication and allows for consumers to have access to market information, whether that market information is true or false is not due to the phone but rather the sources that the user is looking at. Smart 26

IPhones contribute significantly to productivity and efficiency as they can be considered as capital that enhances communication and allows for consumers to have access to market information, whether that market information is true or false is not due to the phone but rather the sources that the user is looking at. Smartphones have also created many jobs as not only do engineers have to design and make them but also software designers and coders design apps that exist on these phones; thus smart phones are large contributors to economic growth. The ‘mobile ecosystem’ created 12 million jobs directly and 16 million indirectly according to Statista, the creation of these jobs implies that the demand for phones are constantly growing as labour is derived demand and if there were no demand for phones there would be no demand for the labour, where income stems from the sale of phones.

The graph to the left shows the average price per phone (all smart phones) in the US over time. Whereas the graph to the right shows the US smartphone ownership over a similar time-period. From 2018 to 2023 the average price of a phone in the US increases by approximately 9% whilst the share of Americans who won a smartphone increased by 7 percentage points or 8.86%, this data suggests that smartphones are price elastic from 2018 to 2023. However, from 2018 to 2021 the price of smart phones went up by 15%, followed by a 5% increase in demand, thus the demand for smart phones is inelastic (like that of a necessity) in this time period. Both of the PED coefficients are positive which may be due to the lack of real prices but it could also due to the increased need for smart phones in modern society. 27

In economic terms, it is hard to brand phones as a whole as a necessity or luxury because different brands will have different demand coefficients. In the eye of a rational economist, it would be easy to brand iPhones as a luxury as they have many features that sets them apart from what is required and although the utility gained is hard to measure, an economist may believe that the equivalent model in an android will give you better value for money. The functionality of the iPhones may align them with the characteristics associated and provided by a necessity, but the premium advertising and societal perceptions elevates them to the realm of luxury. As technology evolves, the debate about whether a phone is a necessity or a luxury will continue and no doubt that as time goes on phones will become more and more of a necessity as they are likely to have an ever-increasing role to play in day-to-day tasks.

Turkey and its ‘Erdoganomics’ Malak Ibrahim

Turkey is a country that has unfortunately been going through an economic crisis over the last 5 years under the control of Turkey’s President, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who many economists believe is to blame for the downfall of Turkey’s economy, which, in 2014, was ranked the world’s 16th largest economy with a GDP of nearly $1 trillion in 2013 but according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Turkey is now ranked as the 21st largest economy in the world and appears to have lost almost a quarter of its GDP. Erdogan has a system of economics based on his conspiracy theories - commonly referred to as ‘Erdoganomics’. He describes himself as the ‘enemy of interest rates’, mainly due to his religious background - believing Islam views interest as sinful. While many other Muslim countries, such as the UAE, have adopted the monetary policy, he believes that the key to fighting inflation is to lower interest rates, the opposite of monetary policy which is the Central Bank’s use of interest rates and money supply to influence demand and combat inflation, an economic instrument successfully used by all other countries. This method has led to negative economic repercussions such as a hike in the cost of living and a currency crisis in 2021, due to the decision of cutting interest rates despite high inflation. The constant cuts of Interest rates amidst the high inflation have resulted in inflation to hit more than 85% in October 2022, a significantly high number that has resulted in people struggling to afford basic necessities such as housing and food. In fact, in 2022, two-thirds of the people in Turkey were struggling to pay for food and cover their rent, a figure produced from a survey by Yöneylem Social Research Centre. Despite this, due to pressure placed on the Central Bank by Erdogan to lower interest rates, the bank cut rates from 19% in 2021 to 8.5% in June of 2023. The reason Mr. Erdogan can influence the decision of interest rates so greatly is because the Turkish central bank is not independent of the government and Mr. Erdogan tends to fire those around him, such as finance ministers, who don’t believe 29

in his economic system and challenge his ‘unconventional policies’. The depreciation in the Lira and the high inflation has affected households and firms. A weaker currency means that firms would have to pay more to import raw materials and components for production so the cost of borrowing increases. Also, their total revenues have fallen due to reduced purchasing power as households can spend far less now on consumer discretionary goods such as luxury goods, vacations, vehicles and non-essential goods in general. This has led to the profit margins for firms falling and has reduced investments made by domestic firms but also reduced the incentive for foreign direct investment in Turkey. Mr. Erdogan’s methods have not been successful for him in the past, as inflation rates hit 61.63% in October of 2023, with prices rising specifically in clothes, shoes, houses and food. The reason for this is the 33% depreciation of the Lira (the Turkish currency) making exports cheaper and hence increasing demand-pull inflation as net exports rise (a component of aggregate demand), also a rise in wages has been a reason for the rise of inflation which increases households' disposable incomes so consumption increases hence further increasing demand pull inflation (as consumption is a component of aggregate demand), but most importantly, the increased incentive to borrow more and save less is the main reason for the rise in inflation as the central bank has cut rates over the last few months due to Mr. Erdogan’s peculiar methods. Following these figures and the president’s re-election in May, there has been a change in stance on ergonomics as the Turkish Central Bank has resorted to conventional ways of combatting inflation: increasing interest rates. In the end of November 2023, Turkey’s Central Bank’s new chief, Hafize Gaye Erkan, hiked interest rates from 8.5% to 40% to tackle inflation, which is expected to rise to 70-75% in May of next year, suggesting that perhaps there is a needed end for Erdoganomics. 30

Are inferior goods actually inferior? Charlie Banger

Well, there are two sides to the argument in which we will explore, on one side yes inferior goods are inferior when considering many important factors. However, on the other side inferior goods aren’t that different to normal or even luxury goods and are better value for money. An inferior good is good that is a direct and worse replacement of a normal good, and it is a good that demand for falls as incomes rise. Usually, they are own branded cheaper alternatives such as Spinney's own. Inferior goods can be considered similar to normal and luxury goods, as evident when looking at the UK. This is shown in the show "Lidl vs Fortnum and Mason: who does Christmas better", a program which shows Lidl competing against Fortnum and Mason in a taste test and winning 2-1, showing that inferior goods can be better than so-called normal and luxury goods. As well as this, own-brand products are usually made in the same or similar factories to that of the named well-known brands, showing that people spend irrationally. This shows that instead of buying the ownbrand, same tasting product, people will pick the flashier option and use emotion over thinking rationally and logic. Weakness in computation is also another factor that stops the consumers from making wise rational decisions and buying inferior goods. The reason for this increase in competitiveness between Lidl and Fortnum & Mason, two very different supermarkets, is the fact that people have less disposable income due to high levels of inflation (in the UK). As a result, the average consumer turns towards cheaper goods, oftentimes inferior goods. However, they don’t want to sacrifice the quality of products. The program shows inferior goods aren’t so inferior, as the consumers preferred the Lidl products overall - this would lead to the consumers having a greater consumer surplus as they feel they are getting a higher quality or betting tasting product for a lower price than they think they should be paying.

On top of this, it is better than substitutes which charges a higher price, giving the consumers less of a consumer surplus. However, it could be argued that inferior goods are that of their title, ‘direct worse replacements’. This is shown in higher end, more difficult products to keep high quality and good taste. This is especially shown in a jam brand, Bonne Maman, when comparing it to its inferiors . Bonne Maman jam is just so much better and can’t be outdone. This might lead to some consumers to stop buying jam if they are unable to afford the premium product and price, as they don’t see any other choice as a suitable replacement. It is also shown in the show that consumers preferred smoked salmon, which has a very complex and difficult to create flavour. Other supermarkets/inferior goods can’t recreate that flavour. The reason for people continuing to buy a specific product is due to habitual behaviour, emotional decision-making, and brand loyalty. Habitual behaviour is the habits around purchasing a certain good or service, in this case the purchasing of Bonne Maman jam. If Bonne Maman Jam were to change its recipe, consumers would stop buying it as consumer don't like change. Another possible reason is emotional decision making, as consumers see this majestic looking jam with the iconic writing and checkered top (of which the firm has marketed it this way to appeal and sell the product to the consumer ) and don’t think rationally. They make decisions using their emotions instead of using all the information available to them. Finally, brand loyalty is a massive factor, as this makes the good more inelastic as consumers would still buy it even if it rises to a higher price. They won't even bother looking for substitutes, for example they will pick the Bonne Maman right off the shelf without even having a second look for other jams. Overall, I think that inferior goods are generally not inferior to other products, although in some cases (like jam), they are.

Balancing economic growth and environmental protection Pierce Ashton The pursuit of economic growth is commonly associated with environmental damage, raising fundamental ethical questions. Extraction of natural resources, industrialization, and rising consumption have fueled economic development but have simultaneously left ecosystems depleted and strained. The consequences, though often delayed and experienced in other parts of the world, manifest in deforestation, pollution, biodiversity loss and more. These consequences imply huge future costs and require re-examination. The Amazon rainforest's destruction stands as a stark example of this trade-off. Brazil's agricultural expansion has led to the clearing of vast swathes of rainforest to make way for cattle ranching and soybean cultivation, generating economic benefits but at a significant cost to biodiversity, ecosystems, and the global climate. China's rapid industrialization has been accompanied by alarming levels of air and water pollution, disrupting the delicate balance between economic progress and environmental well-being. Cities like Beijing have faced notorious "air-pocalypses" epitomizing the consequences of unchecked development. Oil extraction in Nigeria, a key player in the global energy market, has taken a heavy toll on the environment, particularly in the Niger Delta. Oil spills have devastated local ecosystems, jeopardizing the livelihoods of communities and highlighting the precarious balance between economic benefits and environmental degradation. Utilitarian perspectives towards this dilemma argue that if economic growth enhances global standards of living, the tradeoff may be justified. However, deontological ethics emphasizing 33

the intrinsic value of the environment, posits that certain actions are inherently unethical, regardless of short-term economic gains. They highlight the unsustainable growth and potential social and economic inequality. Recognizing the ethical quandary, the global community is increasingly embracing sustainable development as a pathway to reconcile economic growth with environmental preservation. This approach recognizes the interdependence of these two goals and promotes policies that encourage renewable energy, conservation efforts, and responsible resource management. The aim is to forge a path where economic growth and environmental sustainability can coexist harmoniously. One big issue is global collaboration. Despite meeting and agreeing to global goals and objectives, capitalists do not believe that it is fair for advanced economies, who experienced their industrialization period, to attempt to control the development of emerging and developing economies who have not yet gone through such a stage. Balancing economic growth and environmental protection requires careful navigation and a commitment to sustainable practices. The real-world examples underscore that economic progress, while essential for societal well-being, should not come at the irreversible cost of environmental degradation. Striking this balance is not merely an economic challenge but a moral imperative for current and future generations. As we strive for prosperity, we must also safeguard the very foundation upon which our economies depend – the environment.

Should we introduce a human organ trade market? Kaila Kondas Niza It is commonly well-known either from books, TV shows/movies or real-life experiences that demand for life-saving organs far outweighs the available supply. There are infamous ‘waiting lists’ that people are placed on and wait sometimes years to miraculously find a match for them. Patients die if they don’t have a family member ready and able to give up their ‘spare’ kidney, as the main alternative way for someone to have a transplant is for someone to say they want to donate their organs when they die, and this can come with its complications (age, health factors, blood type, etc). Around 75,000 Americans are waiting on a kidney transplant this year but only 18,000 will get them (24%). This means that 76% of those 75,000 will die or live on dialysis, simply because there aren’t enough organs to go around. Theoretically, the organ market wouldn’t be as necessary as thousands more transplant candidates might be saved if more Americans signed organ donation cards, more families consented to the donation of their loved one's organs, and medical personnel approached the families of potential donors more often. But, it isn’t enough. Sally Satel (Psychiatrist and Professor, at Columbia University) said that the majority of people need an increased incentive to give up their organ or second kidney, therefore those who are willing to save a life and give a kidney to a stranger should be compensated. There is of course the black market, and sadly many patients are left with no choice but to go down that route for the sake of their own lives, yet those kidneys/organs are more times than not illegally and unethically sourced and pose unknown health risks. The black market needs to be shut down, and Amy Friedman said the only way to eliminate the demand for the black market and improve the safety of donors and recipients . is to develop a legal and regulated mechanism for donors. 35

compensation. The United States could save $12 billion a year in tax revenue in addition to eliminating the kidney waiting list if a comparable legal kidney market were established, paying donors $45,000. Yet making the buying and selling of organs legal would likely lead to a society where only the rich would be able to access lifesaving organ transplants and the poor would be the main contributors of those organs. The US system wards this inequality with the previously mentioned ‘first come first served waiting list’. Therefore, regardless of their financial situation, they will have the same chance of receiving the transplant as the next. The introduction of an organ market as such creates an exploitative dynamic between the wealthy and poor, and those who are poor end up selling their organs often not for the fully deserved price. The main one who would benefit is the ‘middleman’ who buys the organ from the poor and then triples the price to sell to the rich. The rich portray the idea of organ selling as a basic human freedom, but only the poor make use of this 'privilege'. The selling of organs would be unlikely to occur if there were no impoverished people in Pakistan or the Philippines or enslaved "workers". And this market introduction is not a solution for those financially in need as people cannot escape poverty through the sale of their organs. People sell their kidneys in Pakistani and Indian bazaars to pay off debts, yet average family incomes are falling by a third, more people are living in poverty, and 86% of respondents say their health is getting worse. The only parties that stand to gain financially from the kidney's journey from vendor to recipient are the previously mentioned middlemen, which include wealthy health insurance firms in the Middle East and the West, hospitals, transplant surgeons, organ brokers, and government officials. The legalization of organ sales also puts wealthy individuals in danger. Overall, briefly looking at the pros and cons are difficult to weigh in for the proposed idea of a legal organ market. The monetary rewards for organs result in a disadvantage for the poor yet the compensation of donors is an ‘easy’ way to drastically increase the number of donated organs, potentially saving thousands of lives. It is clear however that there must be changes made to the organ donation system as it reigns ineffective as it stands. 36

The underlying cost of the American Opioid crisis Alex Mantzavinatos Amongst the diverse array of issues affecting society in today’s world, few have woven themselves more deeply into the lives of the everyday American than the opioid crisis. Beyond its staggering toll on human lives, the crisis has also left a long and expensive legacy of financial repercussions. Starting in the 1990s and truly coming to life at the turn of the millennium, the opioid crisis refers to the sudden and shocking rise in the number of drug overdose cases across the USA, increasingly being brought about by opioid drugs, a class of drugs medically intended to relieve pain but instead used because of the euphoria they can produce. More than 1 million deaths, 100,000 of which occurred in 2022, have been attributed to drug overdose in the country since 1999, making the opioid crisis the leading killer of Americans, directly leading to more deaths than gun violence and motor vehicle accidents combined. The costs of opioid misuse extend far beyond mortality however, and into domains such as healthcare systems, labor markets, child wellbeing, and crime, making it is clear to see why the government has been forced to take numerous, costly steps to tackle it head on. Arguably the most obvious way in which the crisis has affected the economy, is the impact of government spending on mitigating the crisis across the country. Opioid misuse cost the US 1.5 trillion dollars in 2020, with this figure projected to only increase in coming years. Federal, state and local governments have been forced to increase investments in drug treatment and prevention programs. The President has emphasized a focus on harm reduction and called for a whole of government approach to 37

beating the overdose epidemic as part of his Unity Agenda in recent years. More specifically, the American Rescue Plan Act (ARP) and other actions by the Biden administration provided nearly $5.5 billion in 2021 for mental health and substance abuse prevention block grants and committed $1.5 billion for State Opioid Response grants in 2022. The scale of the opioid epidemic understandably demands large and significant action to reduce both human and economic tolls, however this increased government spending is not viable for very long and public health experts are constantly exploring more financially viable ways to approach the crisis. The economic impact of the opioid crisis also clearly extends to the U.S. healthcare system, where it is clear the current trajectory is unsustainable. The $14 billion in healthcare costs (Medical Care Journal) directly tied to opioid misuse in 2019, coupled with the $42 billion spent on addiction treatment in 2018 (American Medical Association), indicate an insurmountable financial burden. This crisis strains resources that are already under such high demand, amidst other medical crises like the COVID-19 Pandemic. Additionally, the opioid crisis has resulted in a surge in infectious diseases. Studies have shown a marked increase in diseases like HIV due to needle-sharing among individuals using opioids, leading to medical interventions, and required long-term care for these patients. The associated healthcare costs for treating and managing these infectious diseases have further burdened an already overstretched healthcare system. Without intervention the rising expenses for emergency care, treatment programs, and the increased levels of infectious disease due to opioid misuse will further strain healthcare budgets. Healthcare availability is already a massive issue in the US, with the government currently spending more on healthcare per capita than any other country, and the increasing trend of opioid crisis will continue to magnify this unless major change happens soon. The global superpower is also massively impacted by the opioid crisis in another way. Its impact on the labor workforce. A 2016 study by Princeton Economist Alan Krueger revealed many shocking impacts of the opioid crisis, including the suggestion that the opioid epidemic accounts for 43% of the decline in men’s labor force participation rate between 1999 and 2015, and 25% of the 38

decline for women. This is a clear and prominent issue amongst America’s massive labor shortage. This shortage is felt most in industries that require a higher level of skill or entail safetysensitive situations (workers with substance abuse disorders are far more likely to experience occupational injuries both in and out of the workplace) . The economic implications of this shortage include increased wages to attract workers, reduced output, and limitations on business expansion and innovation due to a lack of available talent. Besides the clear impact on participation numbers, the crisis is also affecting those who do work. An estimated 13% of the workforce receives an opioid prescription, and over 75% of employers have been directly affected by opioids, demonstrating just how widespread this crisis truly is. To conclude, the opioid crisis in America represents a challenge that extends beyond its devastating toll on human lives. It has had economic implications on various sectors, causing a profound strain on healthcare systems, small and large businesses, as well as the public health sector of the government as a whole. The staggering costs incurred by the government to combat this crisis underscore the urgent need for sustainable solutions, which will hopefully be implemented soon.

ECOWAS and their role in the Niger Coup D’état in 2023 Aaliyah Haque What is ECOWAS? ECOWAS is a key economic player in the West Africa region, it is a political and economic union of 15 countries, with a goal of achieving ‘collective self-sufficiency’ for its member states – it acts as a trade bloc for these developing countries as well as a peacekeeping force for countries within the Sahel. It aims to promote economic cooperation among member states to raise living standards and promote economic development. The Union was established on the 28th of May 1975 with its stated mission. Its fundamental principles rely on equality, interdependence, solidarity, co-operation, and economic and social justice. Its member states include Benin, Burkina Faso, Cabo Verde, Cote d’lvoire, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone and Togo. Importantly, these membership countries were once colonised by the French, British or Portuguese. Post colonialism, these African states have faced increasing economic development, however majority continue to suffer under a lack of effective governance as a result of post-colonial governmental corruption. Initially, ECOWAS was formed to address these economic problems of the Sahel and neighbouring countries, however it has since evolved to include political and military cooperation. Additionally, ECOWAS aims to foster political and social stability in the region, which is a significant aim as the area of the Sahel

battles with post-colonial mismanagement and government corruption, a key reason for the ongoing coups across the region. ECOWAS’ role in the Coup D’état, Niger: In the summer of 2023, Niger faced a crisis in which their government was overthrown and their president, Mohamed Bazoum was taken removed and detained. ECOWAS had a huge role to play within this coup; being the trade bloc and economic union for the Sahel, they began to implement strategies to mitigate the conflict and situation that began to unfold. Following the military takeover of Niger’s government, ECOWAS issued an ultimatum giving the coup leaders one week to reinstate Bazoum or else ‘all measures’ would be taken to restore constitutional order which included international sanctions and potential force. They announced ‘immediate sanctions’ on Niger, including the closure of land and air borders, as well as issuing a ‘no-fly’ zone on all commercial flights to and from Niger and the suspension of all commercial and financial transactions between ECOWAS and Niger. This placed additional pressure on a response from the Military Junta already facing increasing tensions with the EU. By August 2023, ECOWAS announced they were ready to deploy troops to restore constitutional order if diplomatic efforts fail, they downplayed this threat and said that it was ‘determined to bend backwards to accommodate diplomatic efforts’ – although military intervention remained an option. If they were to resort to military intervention, it would have been its 7th military operation since its founding in 1990, its most recent was in Gambia 2017 to restore order during a post-election crisis. What is interesting about this situation, however, is the fact that the Sahel region has been hit with many coups since 2020, and yet the situation in Niger has been the only one in which ECOWAS has threatened military intervention. Reasons for this surround the protection and wellbeing of Niger’s president, Mohamed Bazoum, who openly stated his hostage by the junta. 41

However, ECOWAS Commission President, Omar Alieu Touray told reporters, ‘For the avoidance of doubt, let me state unequivocally that ECOWAS has neither declared war on the people of Niger, nor is there a plan, as it is being purported, to invade the country.’ This indicated the growing tensions between the military junta of Niger and the desire to ‘restore order’ from ECOWAS. This is further highlighted by Ibrahim Traoré, leader of Burkina Faso, and Assimi Goïta, leader of Mali, both announced that if ECOWAS decided to go ahead with their military operation plans, they would not only retaliate against it, but send troops to Niger to defend the junta against ECOWAS. This, in effect, would have resulted in a regional war.

How the UAE benefits despite, and from, global challenges Kaila Jafar The UAE economy is among the most successful in the world in recent times. The country’s financial journey has been remarkable, as it developed from a rural economy largely dependent on seafaring, pearl-diving and fishing, via being a primarily oildependent economy, to transforming into a diversified hub for international business. In recent times, the UAE has developed resilience, stability and the aptitude to create opportunities and, when necessary, address challenges. The UAE has successfully developed its natural resources and territory, while also consistently demonstrating its ability to be a major beneficiary of regional and global difficulties, whether financial, political or natural. For example, notable recent instances are the Global Financial Crisis, the Arab Spring, Covid-19 and the Russia-Ukraine war. The UAE suffered with the rest of the world when financial disorder was caused by the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 and 2009. Dubai suffered greatly due to the collapse of real estate prices at a time when property development was a pillar of the local economy. Oil prices also dropped dramatically, from USD 150 to USD 20. However, Abu Dhabi’s capital strength enabled the country to recover relatively rapidly. This recovery was accelerated by political events in the region, whereby there were civil disturbances and changes of regime in several MENA countries, which caused the influx of high-net-worth individuals and professionals into the UAE, stimulating the domestic economy. Another illustration is the UAE’s management of the COVID-19 pandemic. 43

Through early and decisive vaccination and other programmes, the UAE re-opened for travel and business before any other major tourism and business location. This provided the UAE with wide and positive exposure to regional and global business leaders, professionals and decision-makers, again leading to the movement of people and corporate enterprises to the UAE, which accelerated a meaningful economic recovery and then further growth of its economy. A further example of a global challenge the UAE has benefitted from is the Russia-Ukraine war, which led to a significant influx of migrants to the politically neutral UAE from both countries. This contributed to the current real estate boom and also caused a surge in consumption due to increased spending, which has led to a multiplier effect throughout the economy. Despite, and as a result of even benefiting from these challenges, the UAE’s GDP has grown significantly in recent years. For example, GDP grew in 2022 by 7.6% (significantly above the global average) to USD 507 billion. This GDP is projected to double by 2030. Migration into the UAE is also following a similar trajectory. Due to the encouragement of diversification, inward investment and migration, the population has greatly increased, reaching 10 million by 2022. The UAE has also benefited as the lifestyle of the country offers many advantages to residents and businesses. Global events, such as Expo 2020 and COP28, put the UAE firmly on the world map. Hosting such prestigious events gave the UAE greater exposure and respect, which attracted FDI and increased inward investment and economic activity. For instance, it has prompted businesses to invest in a range of sectors, such as technology, finance, and real estate, after they realised how advantageous the UAE is in terms of location, how well-developed its infrastructure is, and how ideal the business environment is. These facts might not have become widely known had these events not occurred. Several other factors contribute to the attraction of the UAE, the most prominent of which are economic opportunities, safety and security, minimal tax, infrastructure and lifestyle. 44

It is somewhat regrettable, but a reality, that another primary reason for the UAE’s success has been challenges prevailing elsewhere in the region and the world during recent times. Most notably, populations of many countries in Asia and the Middle East have suffered from war, civil unrest, disease, famine, autocratic dictatorship and consequential economic hardship. Such difficulties cause people to consider alternative locations in which to reside and work. The UAE, with its large, stable and growing economy, and diverse and attractive social environment, is often a prominent option. More recently, as the UAE’s brand has become more well-known globally, tourists, economic migrants and retirees from other Continents also considering relocation to the UAE, drawn by the range of advantages. In conclusion, the UAE's remarkable economic journey stands as a testament to its resilience, adaptability, and strategic foresight. Amidst global challenges, the UAE has consistently demonstrated its ability to transform adversity into opportunity, which is exemplified by its response to global crises like the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. The country's economic diversification, strategic location, businessfriendly environment, and focus on innovation have been instrumental in attracting talent, investment, and global partnerships. The UAE's ability to leverage global events, such as Expo 2020 and COP28, to enhance its global reputation and attract foreign investment further underscores its proactive approach to economic growth. The UAE’s remarkable journey serves as a compelling example for nations seeking to solidify their position as a hub for international business and a centre for global trade. 45

Economics Japan Trip Mr. Christopher

On the Saturday 25th November at 3am, 32 students and 3 members of staff set off for the rich cultural uplands of Nippon. This amazing trip combines cultural immersion with an in depth look into what makes the Japanese economy the world’s third largest GDP country. Economics does run legendary trips, but these Japan experiences rank high up in our departmental offering. Japanese efficiency is world renowned, and everyone commented on how everything just works, and works very well indeed; almost as though the Japanese are born engineers who if they see something that isn’t quite right, they fix it! We remember how the Japanese fans in the Qatar World Cup stayed in the stadia after matches had finished to clean up the mess – well, these same incredibly high standards are on full display in every city, country town and mountain path; not one piece of rubbish to be see. In fact, it is a rare sight to see an actual rubbish bin! Citizens are encouraged to take their litter home with them and dispose of or recycle it appropriately. Anyway, there were so many highlights in 7 days’ worth of intense experiences that it is difficult to choose one, though I have a personal favourite – the Japanese Business Etiquette Class with the role play and activities was a real buzz. I will leave the students to pass on their favourite moments.

Aryav Odhrani Our economics trip to Japan was a whirlwind of diverse experiences. Each day brought a myriad of activities, from ascending Mount Fuji to engaging in Kendo martial arts with seasoned samurai warriors. One adventure that particularly stood out was cycling through Kyoto. Upon our arrival in Kyoto, the former capital of Japan, via the renowned bullet train, we caught mere glimpses of the vast city. Fortunately, the following day provided us with the chance to explore the city to its fullest... by cycling. Early on Friday morning, we arrived at the starting point, brimming with anticipation for the thrills ahead. Upon meeting our respective local tour guides, we set off in small groups of four, pedalling through the city's bustling streets. The tour path guided us through vibrant squares surrounded by skyscrapers; Kyoto Tower, etched against the clear blue sky, dominated the skyline. What made this experience truly memorable was the city's natural beauty: cycling along the banks of the Kamo river and through the lush greenery of the historic Okazaki Park and gardens. We even had the privilege of visiting the grand Sento Imperial Palace, the residence of Japan's emperors for 500 years. The weather was brilliant—a cool breeze and temperatures hovering around 7°C, perfect for our expedition. Throughout the threehour journey, I relished the physical activity and immersed myself in learning about Kyoto's rich history and culture while enjoying the company of my friends. This experience is engraved in my memory as an appreciation for the beauty of Kyoto.

Aditya Ganesh On the DC Economics trip to Japan, we completed a wide variety of different activities paired with extensive sightseeing, ranging from visiting the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the Panasonic Centre and the Toyota Museum all the way to having a live Kendo session, visiting Mount Fuji and sampling traditional Japanese food whilst staying at a Ryokan. For me, the main highlight was the stock market challenge at the Tokyo Stock Exchange, where we had live news broadcasted to us and multiple different stocks to invest in. Another highlight of the trip was the 3-hour cycling tour around one of the most historic cities in Japan: Kyoto. We all split up into 5 groups and went on bike tours around the city, stopping to explore beautifully constructed ancient Buddhist temples with remarkable architecture and to take photos at a multitude of different and photogenic spots. Finally, another incredible experience that I will never forget was our trip to TeamLabs Planets Tokyo, where we entered an immersive world, engaging all our senses. Overall, we all had a blast!

Agata Savelyeva Even with elevated anticipations of the cultural, economic and natural prosperity that Japan had to offer, the country transcended what I had expected. Although we were only there for a week, after the 7 days, I had already felt immersed in the different aspects of Japanese culture, such as the food, basic language and even the courtesy. The highlights of the trip would have to be the trip cycling around Kyoto, the previous capital, though still considered the cultural centre of Japan. Here, we saw multiple Shinto and Buddhist shrines and got to learn about the different beliefs and traditions celebrated in Japan, and the autumn palette brought an emphasis to the already breath-taking scenery. Another one of my favourite memories would be the kendo class, where we learnt the ancient craft of sword fighting as traditional samurai… with bamboo swords. Overall, this trip was a delightful introduction to one of the world’s largest economies, with many pit-stops in different cities and synchronized watches. Sayonara!

Nivriti Dwivedi Japan was a wonderful experience. It was a perfect mix of fun, as well as remaining true to being an economics trip. I really enjoyed our visit to TeamLabs, a sensory environment that was super engaging for everyone. I also really enjoyed the ice-cold visit to Mount Fuji, something that everyone should definitely experience at least once in their life, but only when geared up with very heavy coats, beanies, and gloves. The best parts by far, were the walking and shopping tours as well as the cycling tour, which was tiring but very much worth it. A huge thank you to Mr Christopher, Mrs Husain, and Ms Kuznetsova for what is definitely one of the best, if not the best, trips of my life, and the memories and fun times will stay with all of us forever.

Emma Thomas The economics trip to Japan was an incredible experience that brought insights into the arts and traditions that the Japanese follow. We got to learn about the business culture in Japan from the etiquette seminar that we attended. From role plays to creating our own business cards, it is safe to say that we all gained a greater understanding of appropriate greetings and customs that the Japanese follow. Not only this, but our trip to Japan was filled with travel via bus, boat, and bullet train. We had a full day excursion visiting Mt Fuji, taking some amazing pictures of the view and scenery while warming ourselves up with some hot drinks from the nearby café. My personal favourite experience was the cycling tour through Kyoto on the last day. We were split up into smaller groups, each with their own tour guide who, along with leading the tour, educated us on the history of the places we visited (temples, rivers and shops). The superb weather combined with a tranquil and leisurely ride though the city; nothing could have been more perfect.

Raghav Jasuja Our school Economics trip was filled with various highlights, which I cannot succinctly pay homage to. Regardless, there were some standout features of the trip. Firstly, the shopping and entertainment districts in Tokyo were filled with a variety of Western, and modern influences and more traditional, Japanese cultural influences. The pop cultural phenomenon of Akihabara (regarded as the birthplace of manga and anime) was buzzing with life upon our visit, with the energy and colours coming to the forefront. Exploring TeamLabs was another massive standout - the level of art and immersive technology truly blew my mind. From an economic viewpoint, the Tokyo Stock Exchange was a riveting experience. Dubai College started with a tour before partaking in a short, news-based trading simulation. Of course, our visit to Mount Fuji was a breath-taking visit, with the mountains, rivers and hills creating a serene, tranquil landscape. However, for me, the best part of the trip was our visit to Kyoto. The mix of rich history and religion in the ex-capital with the modern urban life provided an ideal end to this fascinating, enthralling trip.

Kiara Dhamecha Our school trip to Japan was an unforgettable and unique experience filled with cultural immersion, amazing activities, and a beautiful scenery. Through the immense hospitality of our Japanese guides, we were able to get first hand experience of the rich cultural heritage and traditions embedded within the country, and even learn words from the Japanese language! We journeyed upon the breath-taking Shinkansen, Japan's famous bullet train, reaching astounding speeds of 320 km/h, taking us from Tokyo to Atami and from Hakone to Nagoya. In Atami, we stayed in a traditional Japanese hotel which exuded the charm of Japanese culture: it had tatamimatted rooms, revitalising Onsen baths, and a setting that perfectly captured the spirit of Japan's rich heritage. To complete our stay, for dinner that evening, we had an abundant Japanese dinner brimmed with an ample of traditional delicacies such as nimono and miso soup, in Japanese dress called kimonos. Our trip was packed with memorable activities such as TeamLab, the Panasonic Technology Centre, Tokyo stock exchange, Shibuya crossing, a kendo class, and Mount Fuji. Although it's hard to choose, I think the bike ride we took in Kyoto, which was complemented by the extremely pleasant weather and stunning views, was my favourite activity. We were accompanied by a knowledgeable guide who taught us the history behind each place that was on the cycling route such as Buddhist temples and geisha streets. Overall, this was an unbelievable trip filled with many memories and I would recommend it to everyone.

Prakrit Mittal The school economics trip to Japan was an unforgettable experience filled with diverse highlights. The energetic bus rides between destinations offered an exciting time with not only your old friends but people you may never have talked to before. Akihabara, a hub for technology and pop culture, fascinated me with its vibrant energy. Exploring TeamLabs immersive digital art installations was a mesmerizing journey into the intersection of technology and creativity. The visit to the 5th station at Mount Fuji was a breath-taking encounter with nature's grandeur. Kyoto and Osaka provided glimpses into Japan's rich history and modern urban life, completing a well-rounded adventure that combined educational insights with cultural immersion.

Term 1 Seminars 27/09/23

Christian Ruiz, Philip Manipadam and Eleftheria Sermpeti

Introductory session with discussion on current affairs

4/10/23

Mr. Jesani

‘The World of Work’ – Mr. Jesani delivered a ’Q and A’ session with focus on investment banking in BlackRock, and asset management.

11/10/23

Ms. Khatija Haque, Emirates NBD

Ms. Haque delivered a presentation on the global economy, specifically ‘Moving to a Multipolar World, BRICS and dedollarisation, and the energy transition and what it means for the GCC’.

25/10/23

Christian Ruiz, Philip Manipadam and Eleftheria Sermpeti

Heads discussion-based presentation on the gender pay gap, tipping culture in the USA and if free markets are dying.

1/11/23

Mr. Bijay Shah, Business Networking International

Mr. Shah presented a speech about the Power of Networking, including what Networking is, how to do it, and opportunities gained from this. He also included 3 book recommendations, ‘Never eat alone’ by Keith Ferrazzi, ‘The Power of Who’ by Bob Beaudine and ‘Give and Take’ by Adam Grant.

8/11/23

Aryaansh Rathore

Aryaansh talked about microfinance through his own experience, in the slums of Bangladesh. He recounted the time he spent there in summer and how microfinance worked from his perspective, after working there for 2 months.

15/11/23

Shaurya Rishi

Shaurya covered index funds, introducing them to many attendees and expanded on why the majority of professional investors underperform the market.

22/11/23

Mr. Mo Tanweer, Professor at Cambridge

Mr. Tanweer presented a session on ‘Global Megatrends’ with focus on the changes from 2023 to 2050 to be expected, and what shifts are happening and how.

29/11/23

Christian Ruiz, Philip Manipadam and Eleftheria Sermpeti

Debate session on the motion, ‘There is a recession on the horizon for the UK’. This worked in a typical debate fashion, with 2 teams debating the opposite sides of the motion.

6/12/23

Ms. Lanita Noronha, Curtin University

Curtin University visit to congratulate the winners of the Business Cup Challenge and present the competition and winning pitch.

THANK YOU EVERYONE FOR A FANTASTIC START TO THE YEAR! HAVE A GREAT CHRISTMAS BREAK AND SEE YOU IN 2024! - The DKS Team: Christian, Eleftheria and Philip