First Break October 2020 - Energy Transition

VO L U M E 3 8 I I S S U E 10 I O C T O B E R 2 0 2 0

SPECIAL TOPIC

Energy Transition EAGE NEWS Get set for GeoTech 2021 CROSSTALK Where is Einstein when we need him?

INDUSTRY NEWS UK confirms raft of seismic projects

Gas-oil contact: Inferred from TL-FWI

Oil-water contact: NPD database

Well

Depth slice through high-definition 65 Hz time-lag FWI velocity model refines extent of the reservoir fluid contacts.

REFINED RESERVOIR IMAGES IN THE BARENTS SEA Superior subsurface understanding with high-frequency time-lag FWI CGG Geoscience – Exceptional People - Remarkable Technology - Outstanding Performance

cgg.com/FWI

FIRST BREAK® An EAGE Publication

CHAIRMAN EDITORIAL BOARD Peter Rowbotham (Peter.Rowbotham@apachecorp.com) EDITOR Damian Arnold (editorfb@eage.org) MEMBERS, EDITORIAL BOARD • Paul Binns, consultant (pebinns@btinternet.com) • Patrick Corbett, Heriot-Watt University (patrick_corbett@pet.hw.ac.uk) • Tom Davis, Colorado School of Mines (tdavis@mines.edu) • Anthony Day, PGS (anthony.day@pgs.com) • Peter Dromgoole, Equinor UK (pdrum@equinor.com) • Rutger Gras, Oranje-Nassau Energy (gras@onebv.com) • Hamidreza Hamdi, University of Calgary (hhamdi@ucalgary.ca) • Ed Kragh, Schlumberger Cambridge Research (edkragh@slb.com) • John Reynolds, Reynolds International (jmr@reynolds-international.co.uk) • James Rickett, Schlumberger (jrickett@slb.com) • Dave Stewart, Dave Stewart Geoconsulting Ltd (djstewart.dave@gmail.com) • Femke Vossepoel, Delft University of Technology (f.c.vossepoel@tudelft.nl) • Angelika-Maria Wulff, Kuwait Oil Company (AWulff@kockw.com)

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The Hengill volcanic system and the SUCCEED seismic monitoring zone around the HN-16 CO2 injection well at Hellisheidi geothermal field, Iceland.

Editorial Contents 3

EAGE News

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Crosstalk

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Industry News

MEDIA PRODUCTION MANAGER Thomas Beentje (tbe@eage.org)

News Feature

ACCOUNT MANAGER ADVERTISING Peter Leitner (plr@eage.org)

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How will the 2020 oil crisis end?

Rasoul Sorkhabi

Technical Article

PRODUCTION Saskia Nota (layout@eage.org) Ivana Geurts (layout@eage.org) EAGE EUROPE OFFICE PO Box 59 3990 DB Houten The Netherlands • +31 88 995 5055 • eage@eage.org • www.eage.org EAGE RUSSIA & CIS OFFICE EAGE Russia & CIS Office EAGE Geomodel LLC 19 Leninsky Prospekt 119071, Moscow, Russia • +7 495 640 2008 • moscow@eage.org • www.eage.ru EAGE MIDDLE EAST OFFICE EAGE Middle East FZ-LLC Dubai Knowledge Village Block 13 Office F-25 PO Box 501711 Dubai, United Arab Emirates • +971 4 369 3897 • middle_east@eage.org • www.eage.org EAGE ASIA PACIFIC OFFICE UOA Centre Office Suite 19-15-3A No. 19, Jalan Pinang 50450 Kuala Lumpur Malaysia • +60 3 272 201 40 • asiapacific@eage.org • www.eage.org EAGE AMERICAS SAS Calle 93 # 18-28 Oficina 704 Bogota, Colombia • +57 1 4232948 • americas@eage.org • www.eage.org

35 Exploring Kiruna Iron Ore fields with large-scale, semi-airborne, controlled-source electromagnetics

M. Smirnova, N. Juhojuntti, M. Becken, M. Smirnov and the DESMEX WG 41

Choice of decomposition in multispectral coherence computation Satinder Chopra and Kurt J. Marfurt

Special Topic: Energy Transition

47 Missed pay prediction — the advent of a new era Daniel Stoddart, Behzad Alaei, Eirik Larsen, Dimitrios Oikonomou and Ehsan Z. Naeini 51

The current status of deep geothermal energy Marit B. Brommer and John M. O’Sullivan

55 Planning deep subsurface CO2 storage monitoring for the Norwegian full-scale CCS project

Anne-Kari Furre, Renata Meneguolo, Laurence Pinturier and Knut Bakke 61 Fibre-optic monitoring for high-temperature Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS) projects at geothermal energy sites Anna L. Stork, Athena Chalari, Sevket Durucan, Anna Korre and Stoyan Nikolov 69 Increasing the application of geothermal energy in the greenhouse sector: a case study from the Netherlands

E. Hollebeek, N. Buik, M. Van Dijk, W. van Leeuwen and L. Borst 73

Achieving maritime climate ambitions Oddbjørn Rekaa Nilssen and Geir Remo Fredriksen

78 Calendar

EAGE MEMBERS CHANGE OF ADDRESS NOTIFICATION Send to: EAGE Membership Dept at EAGE Office (address above) FIRST BREAK ON THE WEB www.firstbreak.org ISSN 0263-5046 (print) / ISSN 1365-2397 (online)

Cover: This month we showcase several projects demonstrating how geoscientists are at the forefront of the energy transition.

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European Association of Geoscientists & Engineers

Board 2020-2021

Everhard Muijzert President

Dirk Orlowsky Vi c e-President

Pascal Breton Secretary-Treasurer

Near Surface Geoscience Division Alireza Malehmir Chair Esther Bloem Vice-Chair George Apostolopoulos Immediate Past Chair Micki Allen Contact Officer EEGS/North America Riyadh Al-Saad Oil & Gas Liaison Hongzhu Cai Liaison China Albert Casas Membership Officer Eric Cauquil Liaison Shallow Marine Geophysics Deyan Draganov Technical Programme Officer Ranajit Ghose Editor in Chief Near Surface Geophysics Hamdan Ali Hamdan Liaison Middle East Vladimir Ignatief Liaison North America / Russia Andreas Kathage Liaison Officer First Break Musa Manzi Liaison Africa Myrto Papadopoulou Young Professional Liaison Andreas Pfaffhuber Liaison Infrastructure & BIM Koya Suto Liaison Asia Pacific Catherine Truffert Industry Liaison

Oil & Gas Geoscience Division

Caroline Le Turdu Membership and Cooperation Officer

Ingrid Magnus Publications Officer

Colin MacBeth Education Officer

Michael Peter Suess Chair; TPC Lucy Slater Vice-Chair Caroline Jane Lowrey Immediate Past Chair; TPC Erica Angerer Member Wiebke Athmer Member Xavier Garcia NSGD Liaison Juliane Heiland TPC Tijmen-Jan Moser Editor-in-chief Geophysical Prospecting Ann Muggeridge IOR Committee Liasion Francesco Perrone YP Liaison Philip Ringrose Editor-in-chief Petroleum Geoscience Conor Ryan REvC Liaison Martin Widmaier TPC Aart-Jan van Wijngaarden Technical Programme Officer Michael Zhdanov NSGD Liaison

SUBSCRIPTIONS First Break is published monthly. It is free to EAGE members. The membership fee of EAGE is € 50.00 a year (including First Break, EarthDoc (EAGE’s geoscience database), Learning Geoscience (EAGE’s Education website) and online access to a scientific journal.

Companies can subscribe to First Break via an institutional subscription.

Every subscription includes a monthly hard copy and online access to the full First Break archive for the requested number of online users.

Aart-Jan van Wijngaarden Technical Programme Officer

Alireza Malehmir Chair Near Surface Geoscience Division

Michael Peter Suess Chair Oil & Gas Geoscience Division

Orders for current subscriptions and back issues should be sent to EAGE Publications BV, Journal Subscriptions, PO Box 59, 3990 DB, Houten, The Netherlands. Tel: +31 (0)88 9955055, E-mail: subscriptions@eage.org, www.firstbreak.org.

First Break is published by EAGE Publications BV, The Netherlands.

However, responsibility for the opinions given and the statements made rests with the authors.

COPYRIGHT & PHOTOCOPYING © 2020 EAGE All rights reserved. First Break or any part thereof may not be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transcribed in any form or by any means, electronically or mechanically, including photocopying and recording, ­without the prior written permission of the Publisher.

PAPER The Publisher’s policy is to use acid-free permanent paper (TCF), to the draft standard ISO/DIS/9706, made from sustainable ­forests using chlorine-free pulp (Nordic-Swan standard).

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HIGHLIGHTS

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Disaster reduction is an increasing focus

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Enter the student Laurie Dake Challenge!

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Managing a field trip during pandemic

Why renewing your EAGE membership now makes sense!

These are testing times for the geoscience and engineering professions. The Covid19 pandemic continues to wreak havoc with the industries, organizations and academia in which most or our members are involved. During all this craziness we hope that EAGE has been able to meet your expectations by adapting our services to cater for these difficult times.

That’s why we are now respectfully reminding you that from 1 October, it is possible to renew your EAGE membership for 2021. We encourage you all to renew your EAGE membership as soon as possible. After all, it’s the best way to make sure you keep receiving all the benefits. To help you make your renewal decision, here are some reminders of why being an EAGE member provides great value!

recognition level, and therefore the benefits you can earn.

Special rates for our annual meetings The EAGE Annual and Near Surface Geoscience 2020 Meetings are just two months away. Renewing your membership early can have an immediate pay-off.

Why? An active 2020 membership will allow you to take advantage of our discounted registration fees for these events.

In the upcoming year we will continue to bring workshops, conferences and

education events, both online as well as in-person wherever possible. Being an active member will give you the option to register for the best available registration deals to join these events. Did you know that attending just one of our events already earns back the fee of your annual EAGE membership?

EarthDoc EAGE membership gives you access to EarthDoc, an ever-expanding online database of professional research, with over 70,000 papers and journal articles

Special 2020 and 2021 membership deal With all the challenges during the pandemic and self-isolation in 2020, we understand activating your membership for this year may have fallen off your ‘to do’ list. For that reason, we will still keep membership renewal for 2020 open. This will be the first time when members will be able to renew their membership for both 2020 and 2021 in the period from October to December 2020. Doing so can make a big difference to your membership FIRST

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EAGE NEWS

on geoscience, engineering and energy.

By renewing your EAGE membership for both years, your membership recognition level will be maintained or even upgraded, allowing you to gain a deeper access to the EarthDoc archive.

Attention students! Key components of the EarthDoc archive are open to EAGE student members, allowing students to explore EarthDoc’s conference and workshop proceedings, as well as the back editions of the journals to which they are subscribed.

keeps you in the know with Association news, industry information, and selected research articles. Renewing early makes sure you will not miss any coming edition!

Beside First Break, members have complimentary online access to one of EAGE’s peer-reviewed journals of your choice: Basin Research, Geophysical Prospecting, Near Surface Geophysics, or Petroleum Geoscience. In addition to receiving the latest editions of the journal, you will also be able to access the archived materials of the journal you chose (depending on your membership level). For an additional fee, you can also receive your journal of choice in hard copy (Basin Research is only available

online), and/or subscribe to an additional journal.

Membership recognition benefits When joining EAGE for the first time, you are granted Green Level status, which gives you the basic package of member benefits. By renewing your membership just once, you will already move onto Bronze Level which offers a far greater member discount on events and deeper access to the EarthDoc archive. As you renew with EAGE over the years, you will reach the Silver, Gold and Platinum Levels, each of them bringing additional perks for our loyal members.

How to renew Renewing your membership can be done in a couple of minutes. If you were a member in 2020, kindly check your email for instructions on how to renew your membership. You can also log in directly to MyEAGE, select the ‘Renew Membership’ option and follow the prompts. Make sure you review and update your personal details at this point, and update your subscription preferences to ensure you are kept well-informed about all important news, events, and education opportunities that EAGE has to offer. If you have any questions regarding your membership renewal, feel free to contact our membership team via membership@eage.org, or give us a call at +31 88 995 5055.

First Break and EAGE’s scientific journals The First Break you are holding (or reading online) is another key benefit of EAGE membership. As an EAGE member you get a monthly copy of First Break, which

INCLUDING

NEAR SURFACE GEOPHYSICS

Special Issue on Geoelectrical Monitoring in Near Surface Geophysics Near Surface

020.O RG

335 Special Issue Title: Geoelectrical monitoring: advan in measuremen t and ces engineering applic modelling for environmental and ations J.E. Chambers, M.H. Loke and A. Binley 337 Four-dimens ional electrical resisti vity tomography continuous, near-re for transport infrast al-time monitoring of a landslide ructur J. Holmes, J. Chamb e in British Columbia, Canad affecting a P. Williamson, D. ers, P. Meldrum, P. Wilkinson, J. Boyd, Huntley, K. Sattle V. Sivakumar, H. r, D. Elwood, Reeves and S. Donoh ue 353 Electrical resisti vity tomography monitoring of two aquifer recharge ponds in the alluvia manag River (Barcelona, l aquifer of the Llobreed Spain) gat A. Sendrós, M. Himi, R. Lovera , L. Rivero, R. Garcia A. Urruela and A. -Artigas, Casas 369 Monitoring freshwater–saltwat er interfaces with installation effects SAMOS on data and invers M. Ronczka, T. Günth ion er, M. Grinat and H. Wiederhold 385 Electrical resisti vity monitoring of river–groundw interactions in a ater Chalk river and neighb P. McLachlan, J. Chambers, S. Uhlem ouring riparian zone A. Binley ann, J. Sorensen and 401 Towards unders tanding time-lapse signals measured electrical resisti vity during contaminated E. Bloem, N. Forque snowmelt infiltratio t, A. Søiland, A. n Binley and H.K. 415 Time-intensi French ve geoelectrical monitoring under G. Blanchy, N. Virlet, winter M.J. Hawkesford,W P. Sadeghi-Tehran, C.W. Watts, wheat .R. Whalley and A. Binley 429 Quantifying season resistivity tomog al 3D effects for a permanent electri raphy monitoring cal embankment of system along the an A. Hojat, D. Arosio irrigation canal , M. Papini, G. TresolV.I. Ivanov, M.H. Loke, L. Longo ni, di and L. Zanzi 447 Borehole effect causing artefacts in cross-boreho resistivity tomog le raphy: A hydrau lic fracturing case electrical M.T. Perri, I. Baron study e, G. Cassiani, R. Deiana and A. Binley 465 Biographies of the Guest Editor s

2020

WWW.EAG EANN UAL2

NSG_18_4_cove r_HR 1 NSG20 043FAugust AMS20-V winter.ind cover.ind d 1 d 1

issn 1569-4445 (print) issn 1873-0604 (online)

Volume 18 · Numb er 4 · August 2020 Special Issue: Geoel ectrical Monitoring

ER 4 · AUGUST

The guest editors are very grateful to theBE authors excellent contribuN EF IT for FR Otheir M TH E EA RL Y BItimely RD FE E! tions, to DE colleagues who AD LIN E IS 15 provided SE PT EM BE R and constructive reviews of the submitted manuscripts, and to Ranajit Ghose, editorin-chief of Near Surface Geophysics, and the journal team for their efforts in making this Special Issue possible.

The Special Issue was published in August 2020.

Read more via www.earthdoc.org/conDELIVERING FOR tent/journals/nsg.

Guest editors were Prof THE ENERGY CHALLENGE: TODAY AND ORROW Jonathan E. ChambersTOM(British Geological Survey, UK), Dr Meng Heng Loke (Geotomo Software, Malaysia), and Prof Andrew Binley (Lancaster University, UK).

VOLUME 18 · NUMB

Near Surface Geophysics has published a Special Issue focused on Geoelectrical Monitoring. The purpose is to showcase some of the latest developments in geoelectrical monitoring and how they are being applied to address a variety environmental and engineering problems.

The Special Issue comprises eight papers covering topics as diverse as the monitoring of natural and engineered slopes, crop studies, saline intrusion, groundwater monitoring and remediation. Several of the papers consider the development and use of novel monitoring instrumentation, as well as monitoring design solutions, time-lapse modelling and interpretation approaches.

Geophysics

www.nearsurfac

egeophysics.org

12/06/2020 14:20 02/07/20 08:58

14/07/20 4:39 PM

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NO MORE SEPARATION ANXIETY

DUG DEBLEND

Blended surveys provide a number of operational and technical advantages. In the OBN example pictured above, three triplesource vessels were firing within 15 km of each other. Such overlapping shots must first be separated to permit subsequent processing. DUG Deblend is our inversion-based solution which can reconstruct shots as if they had been acquired separately.

It generalises to a wide range of scenarios and can also simultaneously deblend seismic interference, which is simply an unintended form of blended acquisition. With DUG Deblend, there is no more separation anxiety.

(Data courtesy of AGS and TGS)

EAGE NEWS

Interactive online short courses opening up learning opportunities

EAGE offers a wide choice of online education options to meet different needs and reach more communities.

Our latest programme of online education – EAGE Interactive Online Short Courses – is opening a growing range of new learning opportunities. The series brings carefully selected courses of experienced instructors from industry and academia online to give participants access to up to date education in geoscience and engineering remotely.

The courses are designed to be easily digested over the course of two to four half-day sessions. As a key element of this format, participants can interact live with the instructors and ask questions.

Recently, we have included some of our most popular EAGE Education Tours (EETs), the flagship programme of the Association, into the online offerings.

EET courses are supported by the Association through the EAGE Education Fund for the benefits of members, who can register for special discounted fees.

Online EETs are delivered in two halfday sessions and participants are invited to participate in practical exercises following the lectures. Every EET comes with a dedicated course e-book, which is sent to participants prior to the course.

EET books can also be acquired at our online Bookshop via bookshop.eage.org.

If you are looking for courses to enhance your knowledge in a particular field, then check our calendar below to find out about some of the upcoming opportunities. For the complete programme and how to join, go to www.eage.org, click on ‘Interactive Online Short Courses’ menu on the left under the ‘Education’ navigation menu. You can also look forward to new online education formats we are working on.

EAGE Education Calendar 5-8 OCT

UNDERSTANDING SEISMIC ANISOTROPY IN EXPLORATION AND EXPLOITATION: HANDS ON, BY LEON THOMSEN

ONLINE

12-15 OCT

INTEGRATED METHODS FOR DEEP-WATER RESERVOIR CHARACTERIZATION, BY JON ROTZIEN

ONLINE

19-20 OCT

EET: SEISMIC RESERVOIR CHARACTERIZATION: AN EARTH MODELING PERSPECTIVE, BY PHILIPPE DOYEN

ONLINE

21-22 OCT

EET: MICROSEISMICITY: A TOOL FOR RESERVOIR CHARACTERIZATION, BY SERGE SHAPIRO

ONLINE

23-26 OCT

VALUE OF INFORMATION IN THE EARTH SCIENCES, BY JO EIDSVIK

ONLINE

29-30 OCT & 2 NOV

EET: SEISMIC MULTIPLE REMOVAL TECHNIQUES: PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE, BY ERIC VERSCHUUR

ONLINE

4-5 NOV

PETROLEUM EXPLORATION STRATEGY, BY JEAN-JACQUES BITEAU

ONLINE

16-17 NOV

RESERVOIR MODEL DESIGN: HOW TO BUILD GOOD RESERVOIR MODELS, BY MARK BENTLEY

ONLINE

19-20 NOV

EET: CHALLENGES AND SOLUTIONS IN STOCHASTIC RESERVOIR MODELLING, BY VASILY DEMYANOV

ONLINE

23-25 NOV

ROCK PHYSICS FOR QUANTITATIVE SEISMIC RESERVOIR CHARACTERIZATION, BY TAPAN MUKERJI

ONLINE

24-25 NOV

EET: SEISMIC GEOMECHANICS: HOW TO BUILD AND CALIBRATE GEOMECHANICAL MODELS USING 3D AND 4D SEISMIC DATA, BY JÖRG HERWANGER

ONLINE

PLEASE ALSO CHECK THE CALENDAR OF WEBINARS ON THE LEARNING GEOSCIENCE WEBSITE. FOR MORE INFORMATION AND REGISTRATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.EAGE.ORG AND WWW.LEARNINGGEOSCIENCE.ORG.

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EAGE NEWS

GeoTech event to blend established and new workshops on subsurface geophysical monitoring The best solutions arise from multidisciplinary insights and collaboration. This is the rationale behind the EAGE GeoTech 2021 – 1st EAGE Geophysical Monitoring Conference and Exhibition which addresses the integrated use of geophysical monitoring solutions for diverse subsurface challenges.

Modelling induced seismicity.

The conference, which is scheduled for 1-3 March 2021 in The Hague, The Netherlands, features a technical programme consisting of four dedicated workshops.

Alongside the 3rd EAGE Workshop on Practical Reservoir Monitoring and 2nd EAGE Workshop on Distributed Fibre Optic Sensing will be two new events – 1st EAGE Workshop on Induced Seismicity and 1st EAGE Workshop on Directional Drilling and Geosteering.

Induced Seismicity The Induced Seismicity workshop will provide an opportunity to explore the latest developments in monitoring, modelling and mitigation of induced seismicity.

The mitigation of induced and triggered seismicity is a major challenge for industries, local populations and governments around the globe. Long-term seismic monitoring and geomechanical and seismological studies provide an increased understanding of the rupture process and scientific insights to facilitate the control and mitigation of induced seismic events.

Technical talks and discussions will examine the mechanisms and dominant factors related to the occurrence of felt

induced events. Following an examination of the science, we will also explore how the geomechanical, seismological and geological expertise can best guide science based regulations, technical specifications and effective mitigation strategies.

Directional Drilling The Directional Drilling and Geosteering workshop will examine how real-time insights can contribute to increased efficiency and accuracy of well placements for resource production. We will address

the integration of real-time data with other subsurface information for automated directional drilling workflows, as well as real-time data accuracy, transmission rates and lookahead imaging. The workshop includes a complimentary course to give a comprehensive introduction to well planning and modern real-time geosteering techniques.

The integration of directional drilling and geosteering workflows allows for the precise and optimal navigation of a wellbore to specified resource targets, while the utilization of historical and real-time geophysical and geological information for optimal well placement also provides key benefits in increasing production and recovery factors while improving safety and mitigating risks.

Practical Reservoir Monitoring The Third EAGE Workshop on Practical Reservoir Monitoring presents another opportunity to examine the role and impact of reservoir monitoring techniques in improving short-term production profiles of resource fields and yielding full life cycle returns.

Drilling operation feature at GeoTech 2021.

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The workshop aims to examine how the use of modern reservoir surveillance practices can optimize field production, through multi-disciplinary data integration and increased digitalization of the field, to maximize value, ensure field integrity and increase recovery factors. The benefits of different approaches to incorporate geophysical, geomechanical and reservoir engineering data for reservoir monitoring purposes will be investigated through case studies and extended discussions. We will also examine key issues surrounding continuous monitoring systems with realtime data processing and visualization demands.

Distributed Fibre Optic Sensing Distributed fibre optic sensing technology has emerged as a powerful tool for continuous, high-temporal and spatial resolution mapping of the subsurface. The sensing technology is capable of high precision measurements of acoustic, strain and temperature energy distributions along the entire length of the optical fibre.

This facilitates a cost-effective large-scale monitoring capability for a wide variety of novel subsurface applications over a single optical fibre installation.

The Second EAGE Workshop on Distributed Fibre Optic Sensing seeks to continue our exploration of the use

of distributed optical fibre sensors for diverse energy and industrial applications. The workshop will focus predominantly on geoscience and engineering applications utilizing distributed acoustic (DAS), temperature (DTS) and strain (DSS) systems.

The technical programme will include presentations on advancements in instrumentation, applications, and technology integration, and with a special focus on current challenges, business impacts and evolving best practices.

To learn more or submit an abstract for these workshops, please visit the conference website at geotech.eage.org.

Disaster reduction risk becoming an increasing focus Once a year, on 13 October, it is International Day of Disaster Reduction Risk, when we can reflect on the important work being done around the world to mitigate natural disasters.

The initiative dates back to 14-18 March 2015, when representatives from all over the globe gathered in Sendai, Japan, for a four-day UN World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction. The purpose was to establish a new framework for considering disaster risk and its reduction on a worldwide basis. The meeting resulted in the adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Reduction 2015-2030 replacing the earlier Hyogo Framework for Action providing a guidance to governments and organizations.

Reports on natural disasters are hitting the news more and more frequently. This 8

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last summer, global news covered incidents of heavy flooding around the world, including India, Italy and the US. Increasing population numbers and extreme weather patterns are expected to create a difficult mix of challenges for governments, engineers and scientists to tackle. The infrastructure in place to reduce risks and safeguard company operations is under constant stress and scrutiny.

The skills from our community, ranging from geophysical monitoring to engineering geology have the potential to play a crucial role in mitigating these risks.

Whether it is about monitoring slope stability, mapping seismic risk or finding engineering solutions to reduce the impacts of natural disasters on people and operations, this is one those cross-disciplinary areas to which EAGE members can contribute within the framework of the Association.

At EAGE, we offer a variety of ways to increase your understanding on the role of our community in disaster risk reduction.

Our Near Surface meetings are a good place to start. Tour meetings in Europe (www.NSG2020.org) and Asia Pacific (eage.eventsair.com/3rd-apac-nsge/) plus the EEGS SAGEEP conference (www. sageep.org/about-sageep) in North America

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provide valuable insights and updates on hazard mitigation. Sessions such as ‘Geohazards and Disaster Mitigation’ at the 3rd Asia Pacific Meeting on Near Surface Geoscience & Engineering (2-4 November) exemplify this.

Outside of our near surface conferences, there are other ways to get better informed about the issues. Monitoring’20, our conference dedicated to natural hazards and geological factors which may contribute to environmental disasters (10-13 November) is a prime example.

Risk assessment and mitigation of induced seismicity will also be the topic of a dedicated workshop on 1-3 March 2021 in The Hague (part of GeoTech 2021) you can submit abstracts for this event until 1 November at geotech.eage.org.

Induced seismicity is also included in our future interactive online short course offering. On 21-22 October you can join Prof Serge A. Shapiro for our course ‘Microseismicity – A Tool for Reservoir Characterization’.

Our advice is to keep an eye on further initiatives! After all, disaster mitigation is not something relevant for just 13 October - there will be a need for your skills throughout the years to come.

Stream seismic from the best seat in the house

searcherseismic.com/sAIsmic

EAGE NEWS

Paul C.H. Veeken (1953–2020) Dr Paul Veeken was a highly respected and active member of EAGE. He co-wrote nearly 200 publications, including two textbooks which are considered as classics by many geoscientists.

His books and courses have provided a rock-solid foundation for continuing education in the field of seismic stratigraphy, for both students and professionals.

Paul’s contributions to the fields of seismic attribute analysis, seismic reservoir characterization, seismic inversion, AVO, but also non-seismic sensing techniques, such as CSEM and GPR, made him highly respected.

Born in Edam, the Netherlands, on 16 July 1953, Veeken received his doctorate (PhD) in geology (stratigraphy and sedimentology) at the University of Amsterdam. He started his professional career in 1983 with Shell International Global Solutions as a seismic stratigrapher, where he fulfilled various roles in the Netherlands, UK, and Brunei.

In 1994 he joined the Ecole Nationale Superieure de Geologie [ENSG], Nancy, France, as an associate professor in applied geophysics. Between 1997 and 2004, Veeken worked as a geophysicist at CGG Veritas where he was mainly active in depth imaging and seismic reservoir characterization. Until his retirement earlier this year, he had served the geoscience community for more than 13 years as a geoscientific consultant and geoscience advisor at Wintershall.

During this period he also published his second book on Seismic stratigraphy and depositional facies models. In retirement

Veeken maintained a strong interest in CSEM, neural networks, machine learning, fracture detection, anisotropy, strike-slip faulting, fan systems, seismic reservoir characterization, velocity modelling, FWI, diffraction imaging and joint inversion, geoscientific interests that continued to allow him to work as a geoconsultant within the energy sector on projects and publications in Abu Dhabi, Argentina, Russia, and Kazakhstan to name a few.

Veeken was popular with colleagues, always friendly, professional and helpful.

Up to his last days, he was working on projects in geoscience and engineering, and had already contacted a number of co-authors to work on a third textbook.

He possessed an uncanny ability to tweak complex scientific content and reduce it to its guiding principles to make it intelligible for anyone without ever sounding trivial or losing critical information content. For example, in a recent co-authored publication, the very section that Veeken had written himself was recognized by

one of the anonymous reviewers for its clarity of description. Although he was a gifted writer, he often joked about planning to leave a few extra, all too obvious typos in the beginning of a manuscript to soften the blow of potentially stringent science reviewers.

Veeken’s willingness to share ideas and his desire of helping younger minds were aligned to what the Young Professionals Summit is about. He will always be remembered in the YP community as the geoscientist that always wanted you to keep learning and get the most out of things. We give thanks for all the positive and kind words, and most importantly, all the knowledge that he left to young professionals.

In addition to having a good sense of humour, Veeken cherished playing keyboards and listening to jazz and rock music. Blessed with a vibrant mind, he liked to engage in a plethora of philosophical discussions that centered around his profound desire for earthly justice in his search for truth. Veeken liked to argue contended points in science without ever becoming offensive. He was also big enough to give a peer an unsuspected professional compliment after a hard day’s work, when he felt that he or she deserved professional recognition. He has not died, if we adopt his proclivity toward generosity and kindness.

Paul Veeken died peacefully on 30 June 2020, in Metz, France, where he had settled after retirement in 2019. He is survived by his wife and his two children.

EAGE Student Calendar 2-4 NOV

NEAR SURFACE GEOSCIENCE & ENGINEERING CONFERENCE (REGIONAL GEO QUIZ)

CHANG MAI,THAILAND

16-19 NOV

9TH INTERNATIONALGEOLOGICAL AND GEOSCIENCE CONFERENCE (STUDENT ACTIVITIES)

SAINT PETERSBURG,RUSSIA

8-11 DEC

EAGE ANNUAL CONFERENCE & EXHIBITION 2020 / STUDENT ACTIVITIES

AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS

FOR MORE INFORMATION AND REGISTRATION PLEASE CHECK THE STUDENT SECTION AT WWW.EAGE.ORG

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EAGE NEWS

Get ready for Laurie Dake Challenge 2021 Some 40 university teams are expected to enter the Laurie Dake Challenge 2021 which will once again invite students to compete in this cross-disciplinary geoscience and engineering integration contest supported

by EAGE Student Fund. Since 2011, more than 1300 students have participated in the competition.

The contest begins with an elimination round focused on exploration. This is followed by a round requiring the qualifying teams to provide a field development plan based on a data set provided by the sponsoring company or organization. The top six teams are then required to provide a final presentation of the field development plan from which the judges choose the winners.

If you are you keen to get involved, make sure to follow the EAGE Student Fund blogs, EAGE student site and students social media updates! A tip when forming a team is to aim for a diverse group covering different discplines. This has been the key for successful teams in the past.

Applications for the Laurie Dake Challenge will be open on 20 October 2020, and teams can apply online at students.eage. org until 20 December 2020.

Each university team should include a multi-disciplinary team of full-time geoscience and petroleum engineering students, with a maximum of one PhD student per team. Time to start thinking about composing your team!

Learn from this year’s winners The Mexican Institute of Petroleum (IMP) team – winners of the Laurie Dake Challenge 2020 – says it chose a multi-disciplinary student group composed of Ruth Santos-Naranjo (BSc in Geology), Irvin Heriberto Carmona-Díaz (BSc in Petroleum Engineering), Humberto García-Guerrero (BSc in Petroleum Engineering), Daniel Fuentes-Ibarra (MSc in Petroleum Engineering), and Sinaí MoralesChávez (BSc in Geophysics).

They defined themselves as being a responsible organization committed to submitting high-quality work reflecting their technical knowledge, ingenuity and capabilities.

In 2020 the Challenge consisted of proposing an appraisal plan for the Ormen Lange field, followed by the submission of a development proposal. This involved an extensive and demanding process that encompassed geological setting determination, static reservoir characterization, reserves estimation and an integrated production system analysis of several scenarios, through numerical simulation, in order to define the best development strategy based on an economic analysis.

The highlights of the work were the need for the team to develop its own own tools to solve different problems during the project, such as the generation of software for PVT analysis, well planning and economic evaluation.

Another key factor was to propose a potential solution to reduce CO2 emissions, thus creating a sustainable project.

On this occasion there were some exceptional challenges that made the competition more difficult. The first big test was the practical application of theoretical knowledge, since for most of the team this represented the first approach to large-scale projects such as the appraisal and development of an entire field. While a challenge for most of the young students, it was considered an excellent opportunity to gain experience. Another difficulty arose in the last stage of the competition when the pandemic required the team to work remotely. The team used it as an opportunity to learn to work together online during these difficult times.

When asked about tips for future participants, the team emphasized the importance of a multi-disciplinary team once more. With the various team members focusing on a different area of study, this often meant people had to go beyond the safety of their own academic comfort zone - resulting in vast learning opportunities for the team as a whole. As a result, a high quality and more general perspective of the upstream sector is achieved.

The Mexican winning team would like to thank the IMP Postgraduate Department and Faculty Advisor, Dr Erick Emanuel Luna-Rojero, for their support and guidance; the EAGE and the EAGE Student Fund for promoting the integration of geosciences and engineering disciplines within universities; and Shell for providing the dataset used in this edition of the Laurie Dake Challenge 2020.

IMP team – Winners of the Laurie Dake Challenge 2020.

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EAGE NEWS

How to dial in the right decision July’s London Local Chapter evening talk was once again hosted online, this time with Simon Stromberg (Decision Frameworks) dialling in from Aberdeen to delight the Chapter with his talk on the ‘Value of Information – Capital Efficiency’.

He was able to guide the audience through the tools necessary to make logical decisions when taking into account the value of an operation.

took us through an example relevant to the industry: whether to run an MDT tool in production wells. To make a logical decision, the difference scenarios must be evaluated to analyze the value gap or the difference between having the new data and making a decision without the new data. Secondly, the reliability of the data has to be considered, i.e., if the tool is run in the well, what error

Value of decision with reliable data.

Given his vast experience as a subsurface manager and decision analyst, the advice on the topic was to be heeded.

Stromberg opened by accepting that there is often bias when taking decisions. He said the most common question asked ‘Can you help me justify acquiring my data? Bias is introduced when a company needs that data.

To help the audience truly understand the value of data, Stromberg

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could there be? These elements can be treated mathematically.

He gave an example for medical testing to illustrate the chance of having a disease. In this example 1 in 10,000 of having a disease, and the test for the disease only gives an incorrect result for 1 in 10,000 tests. However, even if the test for the disease is seemingly accurate, it ignores the rate of occurrence in nature, which does not change. From this the probabilities of having the disease and receiving

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a positive or negative test were calculated. The same principles can be applied to geology and geophysics.

For example, it is possible to compute the chance of success of finding hydrocarbons with and without a DHI. Lastly, Stromberg emphasized that it is important to frame the problem, by understanding the drive to make decisions and the uncertainty associated with such decisions. Bringing the audience back to the original example of running an MDT tool in a well, he outlined the various scenarios and decisions that needed to be made. What happens if we go ahead without data, what happens if we acquire the data and it is 100% reliable and what happens if the data is erroneous? By plugging these scenarios into a decision tree, assigning value to each outcome and applying sensitivity analysis, the likelihood of making money for each case materializes.

He finished by asking us, if we were the subsurface manager, would we run the tool? Stromberg advised ‘No’ and reminded us about the reality of complex environments where many other factors come into play.

The tool has the risk of differential sticking, we want to reduce rig time etc. Perhaps this is a negative outcome but, without doubt, it is logical.

The EAGE Local Chapter London would like to thank Stromberg for giving such an insightful and engaging talk. We also acknowledge the contribution from committee members who facilitated the online lecture including Artem Kashubin of PetroTrace, Bingmu Xiao of CGG, Katharine Broadbent of Premier Oil and Lok Lee of Schlumberger. In case you missed the event, make sure to check the recording in the EAGE YouTube Channel, where you will also find videos from previous meetings that might interest you.

EAGE NEWS

GeoTerrace-2020 provides platform for young professionals GeoTerrace-2020 is the title of this year’s International Conference of Young Professionals taking place on 7-9 December 2020 in Lviv, Ukraine. It is to be held at the Institute of Geodesy in Lviv Polytechnic National University, the oldest technical higher educational institution in Ukraine and Eastern Europe and co-organizer of the event with EAGE. GeoTerrace-2020 offers a unique platform for the search of scientific partners, the exchange of scientific ideas and active interaction between young professionals.

Young professional scientists and engineers specializing in the Earth Sciences field are invited to participate in the Conference. The technical committee is inviting papers on Earth Surface Processes & Geodynamics; 3D Modelling & Visualization for Geology and Mining; Modern Geodesy in Petroleum & Mineral Exploration; Remote Sensing and GIS for

Environmental Monitoring; Engineering Surveying and Deformation Monitoring; GNSS & Satellite Geodesy; Land Cover Mapping and UAV; and Sectoral Cadastres for Environmental Management. Other topics may also be considered.

Professionals who are under 35 on 7 December 2020 are eligible to apply for the event (in the case of paper submissions, one of the paper authors needs to satisfy the age criteria).

The Conference includes an exhibition of equipment and software from companies specialized in the field of of GNSS, GIS-technologies and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV).

In light of the global Covid-19 pandemic, the organizing committee will provide the possibility for remote participation in GeoTerrace-2020. More detailed information can be found at https://openreviewhub.org/geoterrace.

GeoTerrace-2018.

Poster section and exhibition of modern geodetic equipment held alongside the conference.

Brain-storming sessions discuss talents and competencies for energy sector future Two online events on ‘Decarbonization and the Energy Transition’ organized by the Special Interest Community (SIC) together with the Paris and the Netherlands Local Chapters (LCs) on 27 May and 16 June offered food for thought to professionals and students in the geosciences. The idea was to gather different perspectives on the demand for geoscience competencies and the evolution of educational programmes.

Demonstrating the role geoscientists play in the future energy mix is incredibly important, particularly in reassuring existing staff of their future employability and attracting new graduates today.

Embracing the opportunities opened up by the Covid-enforced shift of communication into the virtual space, these events enabled a truly global dialogue on a topic of utmost concern for current and future geoscientists, with people dialling

in from as far as Brazil, Malaysia, and Kuwait.

The first event captured views from the AAPG 2019 energy transition forum (Max Brouwers, chair of the AAPG Energy Transition Forum), from social sciences (John Midgley, honorary research associate, British Geological Survey) and an innovative approach combining artificial intelligence for social analysis and collective intelligence (Lucia Levato, LUSVAL). The speakers offered perspectives on the ‘what’ and the ‘how’ of geoscientists’ work in the future, offering practical advice and personal experience.

The second event shifted the focus towards geoscience education, where universities are fighting a significant decrease of students’ numbers, for example by as much as 38% in the UK. The message from both Timo Heimovaara (TU Delft)

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and Ian Stewart (University of Plymouth) was clear: we need to re-brand or even re-boot geosciences to remain attractive and to be able to supply the talent required for tackling the challenges ahead of us.

In the fields of underground cities, water exploration, geo-health and food security, geosciences are there to support climate action and to battle the main societal challenges of the future.

Lifting the efforts from LCs and SIC to Association level, the discussion will be continued at EAGE’s 1st Geoscience & Engineering in the Energy Transition Conference (GET2020) on 16-18 November. Don’t miss the opportunity to be part of this inaugural event featuring the great demand for skilled geosciences in the future, from geothermal, blue hydrogen, and CCS to sustainable resource exploration for critical minerals used in batteries.

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EAGE NEWS

Managing a student field course during the pandemic Jon Rotzien*, Ryan Sincavage, Nuri Uzunlar, Harry Filkorn and Yann Gavillot, who were guided by the entire team of instructors from the South Dakota Mines, Black Hills Natural Sciences Field Station, recount the challenges of leading a student field geology course during the Covid-19 pandemic. *See note at end of article.

Keeping distance on field trip.

All of us were a bit hesitant at the thought of running an outdoor field-based undergraduate geology course in the Black Hills, South Dakota, this summer. Even though we had organized and run field camps since 1967 led by the Black Hills Natural Sciences Field Station, this year was completely different.

How would we design and structure the class? What would we do if someone became symptomatic? How would we even feed the students when normally we’d just have a big camp cookout? These were just some of the challenges that made running a field camp a logistical mountain climb (think Alaska’s Mt Denali, the highest peak in North America).

In March, most of the colleges and universities shuttered their doors, sent their students home and transitioned many of the face-to-face classroom courses to fully online classes so their students could complete the semester. But what about students of geology? So much of our curriculum is based upon making observations and learning while in the field (See Field safety in uncontrolled environments: A process-based guidebook, Oliveri and 14

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Bohacs, 2005 for an indication of the challenge).

For many reasons, fully online geology courses cannot replace the experiences of making geologic maps in the field.

The fundamental skills that students learn throughout the coursework of an undergraduate geology programme also require time studying rocks and the natural world in the great outdoors, the more the better.

This educational pathway typically culminates in a focused and sustained five to six weeks long geologic mapping course that completes the geology Bachelor’s degree requirements of most universities.

However, dealing with pandemic-related issues to deliver field-based learning was going to be complicated.

The first hurdle was to have enough planning in place to ensure the safety of the participants and thereby gain the required approvals of the state’s health officials and the Board of Trustees. To most students, field camp is a life-changing experience as they live in shared accommodations with other fellow students and faculty for five to six weeks learning about rocks and life.

The Black Hills Natural Sciences Field Station offers field courses around the world: in one year alone, nearly 21 sessions are taught, including camps in USA, Turkey, New Zealand, France, Spain, Morocco, Iceland, Ecuador, Nepal and soon other countries. As the pandemic progressed, nearly all these camps were cancelled or rescheduled at first, and then ultimately cancelled. However, there remained a strong demand for students who needed to complete their three to six credits field geology capstone to complete their degrees. Naturally, we wanted to help our students. So we began on a five month mission to build a course and assess its logistical and academic viability.

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Were we out of touch? Or did we really think we could engineer and plan successful logistics and contingencies to deliver a field-based course this summer? Most other universities have said, ‘no thanks’.

We decided on a hybrid course, divided into 14 online course days immediately preceding the 15-day in-person field camp. It was essentially a Colorado College-type block plan experience with no days off. Each of the 14 online days featured a new topic, with a virtual exercise to complete. Overall, it took more than 30 students, nine instructors, the field station director and countless administrative staff from South Dakota Mines and Board of Regents for the State of South Dakota to make this course a successful reality.

Having served as instructors, for several of us it needed ~80-200 hours to deliver one online module and many more to complete the field phase of the hybrid course. Many would say, ‘Why do this if it clearly took a large budget to deliver?’

Simple. We did it for our students. We felt we could make a small contribution by helping them finish their undergraduate degrees and get out of school and onto their careers.

Many may not recognize the amount of consideration it takes to lead a hybrid course like this. The online course was fairly standard, except for the fact that we purposefully overloaded the course so as to keep students busy at home, in quarantine, for the 14 days prior to the start of the in-person field course. The logistics from there got a bit more complicated.

For the field camp, we split the students into 10-person cohorts to prevent mixing of the student body during the course. Each cohort had two full-time instructors. On field days, vans consisted of five students and one instructor (who

EAGE NEWS

All health protection measures were strictly followed.

was also the driver). We drove with the windows down (even in the rain) and masks on. But before loading the vans, forehead temperature checks were taken, so we had to expand our skillsets to mimic some of the work performed by physicians. Following commutes to and from the field sites, the instructors sprayed disinfectant on all internal and external surfaces that were touched by the passengers. If a student or instructor were to become symptomatic at any time during the camp, we had plans to place the entire cohort under quarantine measures based on the guidance of relevant government and health authorities.

All campus dining was located in the cafeteria at the Surbeck Center. Students were to keep 6 ft distancing at all times, and were served by staff in order to eliminate possible contamination from touching anything. Dining tables were spaced with only one person per table, with most facing toward the door. A bit unconventional, but it worked. Masks were to be worn at all times, except

while eating. One of the nice things about working in the field was that we could eat our prepared brown bag lunches on hilltops overlooking the beautiful Black Hills every day we were in the field.

It was during those occasions that we reminded ourselves of how thankful we were to be field geologists.

For the duration of the in-person field course, there were no incidences of elevated body temperatures, and no students needed to stay in for a day due to any Covid-like symptoms. Two weeks after, there were no reported incidents of symptoms or infection from the students, instructors and logisticians once they returned home.

Based on our benchmark hybrid course during the pandemic (as far as we know, there are exceedingly few other field programmes that have attempted this model), we forecast three main scenarios for undergraduate field-based education.

First, we may see that many field camp programmes cease to operate in the coming years as more and more geology

courses, and courses in general, go online – especially if Covid-19 goes endemic.

Secondly, we may see that field camps grow to accommodate pent up demand from the height of the pandemic. Thirdly, we feel that more camps may go to this hybrid model, since it is a nice compromise and represents about the length of time a camp can run at full throttle without testing the ultimate limits of the participants’ durability and endurance.

Further, online portions of courses are not as costly nor otherwise prohibitive to students who may not feel as comfortable in the outdoors, or who have family and job commitments that prevent them from travelling for extended periods during the summer.

So where do we go from here? While field-based education may seem only fit for the geosciences and other natural sciences, we believe this model may work well across undergraduate and graduate disciplines (elite universities including Stanford and Rice mentioned this was in their repertoire of options) – even corporate educational retreats. Some of our instructors also teach in various industry sectors including oil and gas and mining.

Those classes, too, all employ various methods of online course delivery now, including Zoom, Microsoft Teams, etc.

Jon Rotzien is an active supporter of EAGE education and young professionals initiatives. He was a speaker at the ‘Your Career’ Symposium at our Annual last year, and will host an EAGE online short course on ‘Integrated Methods for Deep-Water Reservoir Characterization’ on 12-15 October.

The EAGE Student Fund supports activities that help bridge the gap between the university and professional environments for students of geosciences and engineering. Thanks to our Student Fund contributors we can continue supporting students around the globe and through this securing the future of our industry. For more information to become a Student Fund contributor, please visit eagestudentfund.org or contact us at students@eage.org.

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BY AN D R E W M c BAR N E T

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Where is Einstein when we need him In numerous musings on the subject, Albert Einstein was often questions about the spiralling cost of a degree (notably in North dubious about the value of formal teaching. Much quoted remarks America and the UK), the value of the university experience for of his include: ‘The only thing that interferes with my learning the world’s changing work environment, and ultimately whether it is my education’ and ‘Education is what remains after one has is time to reimagine higher education. forgotten what one has learned in school’.

These are themes which are well addressed in a recent Times Higher Education article by Timothy M. Devinney, chair and These observations from one of the most celebrated scientific geniuses of the 20th Century may provide some small comfort to the professor of international business at the Alliance Manchester current cohort of geoscience students worldwide. They are strugBusiness School, University of Manchester and Grahame R. gling mightily to study under the restrictions deemed necessary to Dowling, professor emeritus of marketing at the University of New contain the spread of the Covid-19 virus. Einstein, who ironically South Wales. was a notoriously poor university lecturer, did also state: ‘I never Covid-19 is obviously precipitating a revenue crisis for teach my pupils. I only attempt to provide the conditions in which universities, threatening academic staff numbers, availability of they can learn.’ academic programmes and original research. This comes at a A satisfactory learning environment is exactly what univertime when, according to Devinney and Dowling, ‘most public sities are trying to provide for all students during the pandemic. universities look more like bloated conglomerates than focused intellectual-capital and information-dissemination institutions that Assuming students cannot attend in person the obvious recourse has been to hold classes online. Pre-recorded or live/interactive can help the economy and society navigate the future.’ Much as sessions seem popular options. The geoscience in the health services of many countries, the size, influence and cost of administration of curriculum is one of the more challenging ‘The geoscience subjects in this regard because it exposes a universities has grown totally out of proportion curriculum exposes major limitation of online learning, namely the to the service being provided. absence of hands-on experience.

Who can disagree? At the workface there a major limitation of Just as medical students need to practise is not an academic to be found who does not online learning’ on live patients, so geoscientists and especially complain about the growing teaching load, geologists need to encounter physical rocks and burdensome curriculum compliance requiretheir formations. In this month’s EAGE News, there is an excellent ments checking for plagiarism, too many students leading to lower description by Jon Rotzien and colleagues from the Black Hills standards, and pressure to undertake research with all the attendant Natural Sciences Field Station on the herculean task it took to application paperwork and quest for sponsorship. On top of which deliver a 14-day field course to 30 graduating students this summer tenure, an important part of the academic staff remuneration while complying with Covid-19 health and safety rules. Not surpackage, is becoming increasingly elusive as managements seek to prisingly the authors fear that such undergraduate field camps may cut costs by hiring lecturers on contract. well perish as geology and other courses go increasingly online.

The academic staff seems powerless to affect change as uniIn fact, the coping strategies of universities in this time of versities the world over are increasingly regarded by governments, Covid to meet the needs of students generally has served to acceldemocratic or autocratic, as utilitarian job training centres. The cost erate what many see as a coming crisis. The use of online lectures, to the taxpayer might be the ostensible reason, but for governments discussions and tutorials instead of in-person teaching has raised of many complexions this can also be a convenient pretext to

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limit the scope of potentially unfriendly academic inquiry and adapt the online learning revolution and balance the still essential discussion. in-person requirement for students and their mentors, not to mention practical work.

It follows that universities are under enormous pressure to be cost effective, hence the deteriorating working conditions for Which brings us to the plight of today’s geoscience students academics and the exorbitant cost of a university education in some and those intending to follow in their footsteps. As suggested here, the traditional academic structure is becoming fragile and a countries, notably the US. Covid-19 has highlighted how one of the favourite revenue-earning gambits for universities has become different style of learning is evolving, quite possibly opening the unstuck, namely the explosion in foreign student enrolments espeway to alternative avenues into the professions. Uncertainty reigns.

Of more immediate concern is how flexible universities can cially at English-speaking institutions. Milking the foreign student be in transitioning their courses to meet the new understanding market was never going to be sustainable, and now this source is of the role of geoscience in society. This is urgent because at least temporarily running dry, impacted by virus-related travel student numbers at the main geoscience schools are shrinking at and residence restrictions. This could be especially problematic for an alarming rate. Fabian Wadsworth, Edward Llewellin, Richthose universities that have become dependent on this income. It ard Brown and Andrew Aplin, members may well be a factor in hastening what seems like unavoidable consolidation in higher ‘Possibilities unshackled of the academic staff at the Department of Earth Sciences at Durham University, education institutions. from a long spell under recently posted a blog on world.edu entitled Many universities are now placing their ‘Earth sciences face a crisis of sustainability’. faith in providing online programmes to the age of fossil fuels’ They say the number of UK students accommodate their students’ learning needs taking A-level geology as a university entrance requirement has during Covid. Anecdotally this is not the ‘resource-lite’ option fallen by more than a quarter since 2014. They have no doubt that some might imagine. Online elements are not new for most unigeology’s association in young minds with the fossil fuel industries versities. However, providing full course presentations, interaction is to blame. These are strongly perceived as being environmentally possibilities, access to teachers, facilitating student teamwork and and ethically unfriendly and in the case of the oil and gas industry communication generally, establishing work submission proceno longer a ticket to a well-paid career for life. dures and marking protocols plus setting up the access technology The Durham writers provide a vision for students of what earth is a big step up. As such it is labour and resource intensive. sciences and geology specifically can offer in the modern era when We can probably expect universities to adopt a hybrid approach the future of the planet is at the top of the agenda for the upcoming mixing the desired in-person participation with more online generation. It is worth quoting at length to remind us all of the education materials. This of course poses a threat to the traditional possibilities unshackled from a long spell under the age of fossil academic college set up with students on campus. An added fuels. The statement applies as much to geophysicists and other complication is the plethora of courses on all sorts of topics, supearth science disciplines. ported by highly reputable universities and academics, that can be ‘The truth is that the modern geologist is interested in the accessed free or for a fee. So-called Massive Open Online Courses formation and evolution of planets; the complex interactions (MOOCs) – online courses with unlimited participation and open among lithosphere, hydrosphere and atmosphere; the evolution access via the web – were first introduced around 2008. They were of ecosystems; understanding natural hazards and mitigating their apparently inspired by the MIT distance learning OpenCourseWare destructive potential. Moreover, the minerals and metals required project started in 2001, which included the partly philanthropic to power our low-carbon future are often buried in the Earth’s intention of making undergraduate and graduate education matecrust, requiring geological expertise to map, analyse, target and rials open to all. extract sustainably. High-capacity batteries, solar panels, turbines Since 2012 the idea has really taken off with both university and electrical systems depend on precious metals such as indium, and commercial participation. The availability of so much educalithium, neodymium and nickel, stored in rocks beneath our feet. tional resource online has inevitably brought under further scrutiny Exploiting geothermal energy resources requires drilling through the role of universities as a somewhat exclusive centre of learning strata and circulating hot fluids through porous underground and dispenser of career qualifications for students. networks. Building wind or solar farms requires geo-engineering The outcome of the online learning experience for students is for stable large-scale structures rooted on bedrock, as well as a matter of much debate amongst the educationalist community. materials for motors and generators. Managing water resources for Drop-out rates have apparently been high. Deep research, aided an increasing global population requires models for groundwater by latest digital analysis tools, is looking into the learning process utilization and aquifer dynamics’. itself and how courses can be crafted to suit the students’ psyche.

Students still need convincing, but as Einstein said, ‘We cannot This work is its infancy, so we can be sure that the online element solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we of the student experience will endure and will undoubtedly become created them’. more sophisticated. What universities have to figure out is how to Views expressed in Crosstalk are solely those of the author, who can be contacted at andrew@andrewmcbarnet.com.

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INDUSTRY NEWS

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Shearwater wins first project offshore Vietnam

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PGS performs record-breaking streamer spread

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Shlumberger launches geothermal JV

UK 32nd offshore licensing round confirms raft of seismic projects The seismic services industry has received a much-needed boost after the UK provisionally awarded licences in UK waters with work commitments attached.

The UK Oil and Gas Authority (OGA) has offered 113 licence areas over 259 blocks or part-blocks to 65 companies in the UK’s 32nd Offshore Licensing Round.

In the Northern North Sea Azinor will carry out seismic data conditioning and studies on blocks 2/4b, 2/5b, 2/5c, 210/25c, 210/30c, 211/26b; on blocks 3/9c, 3/10a, 3/14c, 3/15d Summit will obtain and reprocess 3D seismic and studies; on block 3/11a Corallian will obtain 3D seismic and studies; on blocks 3/25b, 3/30, 4/26, 9/5a Serica will obtain 3D seismic and studies; on blocks 9/4, 9/8b, 9/9e Cycle will carry out a CSEM Feasibility study and acquire CSEM data; on blocks 9/12c, 9/13e and 9/14f Apache and Chrysaor will carry out 3D seismic reprocessing and studies; on blocks 9/23c, 9/24a, 9/27a, 9/28c and 9/29b Eni will shoot new 3D seismic and studies; and on block 9/27b Tangram will conduct 3D seismic reprocessing and studies.

Central North Sea In the Central North Sea Azinor, in partnership with Chrysaor, will will obtain 3D seismic and studies on blocks 16/18b, 16/23b, 16/24c; on blocks 13/17b and 13/18 Ithaca will reprocess 3D seismic

and studies; on blocks 14/20c Parkmeaad will reprocess 3D seismic and studies; on blocks 14/20g and 15/16g Parkmead, in partnership with Pharis Energy, will reprocess 3D seismic and studies; on block 14/26b Tangram, in partnership with Summit, will reprocess 3D seismic and studies; on blocks 15/18e and 15/19c United will obtain 3D seismic; on blocks 15/23d, 15/24a, 15/25d Zennor, in partnership with Chrysaor, will obtain 3D seismic, reprocess and studies; on 16/27d Chrysaor in partnership with Spirit, Zennor and Ithaca will reprocess 3D seismic; on 19/5b Talon will

obtain 2D seismic and reprocess 3D seismic; on 20/2b Talon will obtain 3D seismic and reprocess and studies; on 21/7a, 21/8b and 21/9b Apache will obtain 3D seismic; on 21/12b, 21/13b, 21/14b, 21/17a, 21/18b, 21/18d Finder will obtain and reprocess 3D seismic; On 21/20b Zennor will obtain 3D seismic; on 21/19d and 21/24b Ithaca will shoot new 3D seismic and obtain 3D seismic and studies; on 22/1a Ithaca and Spirit will reprocess 3D seismic and studies; on 22/2b Chrysaor and partners DNO and Zennor will obtain and reprocess 3D seismic and studies; on 22/6d Apache will

The Buzzard oilfield in the North Sea. The UK is hoping to unlock more investment.

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INDUSTRY NEWS

shoot new 3D seismic; on 22/15b Chrysaor will obtain 3D seismic and studies; on blocks 22/15a, 22/18c, 22/19c, 22/20c and 22/24i BP will shoot 3D seismic and obtain 3D seismic; on 22/17a Deltic will obtain 3D seismic and studies; on block 22/23c Neptune has won one block and will obtain and reprocess 3D seismic and studies; on blocks 22/26c and 22/27a Total and partner Neptune will reprocess 3D seismic and studies; on blocks 23/16d and 23/17 Chrysaor will obtain 3D seismic and studies; on 23/27b DNO will obtain 3D seismic and studies; on block 28/8a Talon will obtain and reprocess 3D seismic and obtain 2D seismic data; on block 29/10d DNO will obtain 3D seismic and studies; on blocks 29/14, 29/15, 30/6c and 30/11c Chrysaor will obtain 3D seismic and studies; on block 29/20a Spirit and partner Neptune will obtain 3D seismic and studies; on blocks 30/1g, 30/6b Ithaca will obtain 3D seismic and studies; on block 30/12e Chrysaor will obtain 3D seismic and studies; on 22/25c Total and BP will obtain 3D seismic and studies; on 22/26b Summit will obtain and reprocess 3D seismic and studies; and on 20/6c, 20/7c, 20/8a, 20/11a, 20/12a Azinor and Finder Energy will obtain and reprocess 3D seismic and studies.

Southern North Sea In the Southern North Sea Shell and partner Spirit will obtain and reprocess 2D seismic and studies on blocks 35/22, 35/23, 35/27, 41/1, 41/2; on blocks 36/30b, 42/5b, and 43/1a Ardent Horizon Energy and partner Modiin will shoot new 3D seismic; on blocks 41/5b and 42/1b Deltic and Shell will process 3D seismic and studies; on blocks 42/2c, 42/7b Shell will obtain and reprocesses 3D seismic and studies; on blocks 42/13b, 42/17, 42/18 Deltic will reprocesses 3D seismic and studies; on blocks 42/19 and 42/20b Deltic will obtain 3D seismic and studies and reprocess 3D seismic, on blocks 42/22 and 42/23 Deltic will obtain and reprocess 3D seismic and studies; on 42/28g Parkmead will reprocess 3D seismic and studies; on blocks 43/11 and 43/12b Deltic will obtain and reprocess 3D seismic and studies; on block 43/13a Spirit and partner Halo will obtain 3D seismic and studies and shoot new 3D; on block 43/14c Painted Wolf will obtain 20

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Map of the 113 licence areas and 259 blocks in the UK’s latest offshore round.

2D seismic and studies; on blocks 43/19a and 43/20b Spirit will shoot new 3D; on blocks 43/20a, 44/16, 44/17 and 44/18b Neptune will reprocess 3D seismic and studies; on block 43/25 Holywell and partner Resolute will reprocess 3D seismic and studies and shoot new 3D data; on blocks 48/5a, 48/4a, 43/29a and 43/30a Holywell and partner Resolute will complete a gas-to-wire study and obtain 3D seismic data; on blocks 44/21a, 44/22a 44/23c Neptune will reprocess 3D seismic data; on block 47/15b Burgate will obtain 2D and 3D data and studies; on blocks 48/9, 48/14b Tangram and partner Summit will reprocess 3D data and studies; on blocks 48/13c, 48/14c, 48/18e and 48/19d Tangram and partner Summit will reprocess 3D data and studies; on blocks 48/23d and 48/24c IOG will reprocess 3D seismic data; and on blocks 49/21e and 49/22b and IOG and partner CalEnergy will reprocess 3D data seismic and studies.

West of Sheltand In West of Sheltland BP will shoot new 3D data on blocks 204/23b; on blocks 205/1b, 205/2b, 205/3, 205/6, 205/7, 213/28, 213/29 Suncor will shoot new 3D data; on blocks 205/11, 205/16b, 205/17 and 205/18 Siccar Point will shoot new 3D data; on blocks 206/3, 206/4b, 206/8b, 214/28b, 214/29b and 214/30e Total and partners Ineos and SSE will reprocess 3D seismic data and studies; on blocks

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206/6a, 206/7b Athena will obtain 2D and 3D data and reprocess 3D seismic data and studies; on blocks 208/7a, 208/8a, 208/9a, 208/10a, 108/12b, 208/13a and 208/15 Athena will obtain and reprocess 3D seismic data and studies and shoot new 3D data; on blocks 211/11 and 211/16b Cornerstone will reprocess 3D seismic data and studies; on blocks 211/16d, 211/17a and 211/18i Shell will reprocess 3D seismic data and studies; on blocks 212/30, 213/21, 213/22, 213/26a, 213/27b, 213/27c Siccar Point and partner Shell will obtain and reprocess 3D seismic data and studies and shoot new 3D data; on blocks 214/4c, 216/29a, 216/30b, 217/26b and 217/27a Athena will obtain 2D and 3D data, reprocess 3D seismic and studies and shoot new 3D data; on blocks 214/12a, 214/13a, 214/14b, 214/17, 214/18a and 214/19a Total and partner Shell will reprocess 3D seismic data and studies; and on blocks 214/29c and 214/30c Corallian will reprocess 3D seismic data and studies.

The round offered blocks in mature, producing areas close to existing infrastructure, under the flexible terms of the Innovate Licence. This enables applicants to define a licence duration and phasing. The majority of the licences will enter the initial term (phase A or phase B exploration stage) and 16 of the awards are for licences that will proceed straight to second term, either for potential developments, or redevelopments of fields where production had ceased and the acreage had been relinquished.

The OGA provided a suite of new data and analyses, prospect and discovery reports, well and seismic data to support this round. The creation of the National Data Repository (NDR) in 2019 improved data availability and access.

The OGA will not run a licence round in what would have been the 2020/21 period. This will allow relinquishments to take place so more coherent areas may be reoffered in future, giving industry time to deliver on work commitments in the existing portfolio of licences.

‘Industry is encouraged to use the pause to acquire data and carry out studies in preparation for the next round. The OGA will engage with industry on the timing and nature of the next offshore licensing round,’ said the OGA in a statement.

INDUSTRY NEWS

PGS rejects TGS £600 million offer for its multi-client library PGS has rejected TGS’ $600 million offer for its multi-client library as ‘opportunistic’ given the dire situation for seismic data companies caused by low oil prices.

In an unsolicited proposal, TGS claimed that a successful bid would broaden its multi-client geophysical data offering in all major mature and frontier basins world-wide. It added that the offer valued the multi-client data library above the full reported book value and

US and Norway agree to share research on offshore energy activities The US Department of the Interior has formalized its partnership with the Ministry of Petroleum and Energy in Norway to strengthen cooperation in offshore mineral, oil and gas, and wind energy activities.

The two countries will exchange scientific and technical information, and cooperate on research and development technologies. They will share best practices, policy and regulatory initiatives on the development of offshore resources.

‘I’m convinced that sharing of best practices and experience will be mutually beneficial, and contribute to sustainable resource management,’ said state secretary in the Norwegian Ministry of Petroleum and Energy Tony Christian Tiller.

Both countries are interested in discussing strategies for identifying new supplies of marine mineral resources of commercial or economic interest. Discussing offshore wind is also a priority, particularly floating wind technology.

Since 2017, the US Department of the Interior has conducted two offshore wind lease sales totalling approximately $414 million in bonus bids, seven offshore oil and gas leases worth approximately $1 billion, and executed seven offshore mineral agreements.

would secure PGS liquidity to repay the $135 million revolving credit facility due in September 2020.

The company also offered to hire PGS’ vessels for future TGS data acquisition after the proposed deal closed.

In rejecting the offer, PGS said it undervalued the multi-client library.

‘The board has unanimously concluded to reject the TGS proposal. PGS is of the view that the value of the company’s multiclient data library is significantly

greater to PGS than that represented by the TGS proposal, and that the timing of the proposal is opportunistic given the current market backdrop and macro-economic environment,’ PGS said.

‘PGS remains committed to its integrated service strategy and the benefits to the company and its stakeholders from the combination of multiclient and contract operations. PGS remains focused on its ongoing discussions with its lenders,’ the company added.

Shearwater wins first project offshore Vietnam

Shearwater has deployed the vessel SW Duchess for the survey.

Shearwater Geoservices has won its first project in Vietnam, a towed streamer 3D acquisition for SK Innovation – the operator of Block 16-2.

The survey covers 900 km2 in Block 16-2 of the Cuu Long Basin, which is offshore southern Vietnam and the most important petroleum-producing basin in the country.

Shearwater has deployed the vessel SW Duchess for the survey.

‘This will be Shearwater’s first seismic survey in Vietnam and our first project for SK Innovation’, said Irene Waage Basili, the CEO of Shearwater GeoServices. ‘We are well-established in South East Asia and look forward to further expanding

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our regional operations through this new survey.’

Meanwhile, Shearwater has won a contract for a large towed-streamer 3D acquisition and fast-track processing project for Total in the west African country of Mauritania.

The 6000 km2 survey over the C15 and C31 blocks uses an ultra-wide tow Flexisource configuration, the largest triple source spread to date, together with fast-track processing, enabled

by Shearwater’s proprietary Reveal software. The two-and-a-half-month survey is scheduled to start in Q3 2020, adding to other recent activity in North West Africa for Shearwater, and will be carried out by the vessel SW Empress (formerly Polar Empress).

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PGS performs record-breaking streamer spread

The vessel Ramform Tethys.

PGS has begun the Barents Sea wide-tow Penta Source project that it claims uses the most advanced configuration ever towed by a seismic streamer vessel.

The vessel Ramform Tethys reconfigured from a wide-tow triple source set-up to an even wider penta source solution (five arrays), with a total source separation of 315 m. All source elements are placed in front of the streamers, with almost zero offsets.

The project extends PGS’s multi-client coverage in the Hammerfest Basin, combining a unique source configuration, with a record-breaking streamer spread said PGS. It comprises a wide-tow Penta Source with total source span of 315 m, 16 Geo-

streamers x 56.25m nominal separation; three long streamer tails (10 km); and a deep tow at 25m and 28m.

‘Wide-tow multi-source solutions can deliver high-quality images of shallow geological targets without sacrificing acquisition efficiency. PGS deployed a wide-towed triple-source on GeoStreamer X programmes in the Viking Graben 2019 and 2020, and until very recently the Ramform Tethys was also towing a wide-tow triple-source in the Barents Sea in 2020.

‘Wide-tow source until now has been in the 180 m to 250 m range (total source span). The imaging results and feedback from clients have been very good. Now PGS has taken the next leap,’ the company said.

‘This configuration is now available for frontier and GeoStreamer X projects, and we look forward to building our 2021 campaigns in the Barents Sea and elsewhere with this advanced streamer and source offering in the portfolio,’ said Berit Osnes, senior vice-president sales and services, Eurasia at PGS. Meanwhile, PGS has released final time and depth imaging products on its

Trøndelag Platform ‘elephant’ offshore Norway Velocity model building has been applied to the entire volume with full waveform inversion (FWI) and reflection tomography.

The PGS19M02 survey was acquired in September 2019 and covers 500 km2 around the Trøndelag platform, including the Helgeland and Froan basins.

The area includes several areas of held acreage awarded on the Norwegian Continental Shelf in previous APA rounds.

GeoStreamer technology provides improved seismic velocity estimation and better imaging of the Jurassic targets and the presalt potential in the Permian, to support detailed prospect evaluation and exploration for new plays, said PGS. ‘This dataset will be highly relevant for companies who hold acreage in this area and will allow them to unlock the potential of a highly underexplored area,’ said Gunhild Myhr, PGS sales and services Europe.

The AVO-compliant dataset can be used as a baseline survey for future 4D studies.

US upstream industry faces bankruptcy crisis unless oil price improves, report says Unless oil prices continue to strengthen some 150 more North American E&Ps will need to seek Chapter 11 protection by 2022, according to research by Rystad Energy.

So far this year, according to the corporate law firm Haynes & Boone, 32 E&Ps have filed for Chapter 11, recording a cumulative debt of about $40 billion. On the oilfield services (OFS) front, 25 companies have filed for chapter 11.

If the oil price remains at $40, Rystad Energy estimates 29 more E&P Chapter 11 filings this year, adding another $26 billion of debt at risk.

In a scenario with WTI continuing to hover around $40 over the next two

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years, Rystad expects another 68 Chapter 11 filings from E&Ps in 2021, and 57 more in 2022, adding $58 billion and $44 billion, respectively, of more debt at risk. That would bring the total amount of E&P debt at risk from now until the end of 2022 to $128 billion.

The number of filings so far is lower than what was recorded in the previous downturn, particularly in 2016, but total debt for the filings in the first seven months of the year, for both E&Ps and OFS players, is already at the same level as the full year of 2016, at $70 billion.

Moreover, average debt per company in 2020 is $1.2 billion, 160% higher than the average debt of $460 million record-

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ed in the 2015-2019 period and twice as much as the 2017 level, which was the second highest in terms of average debt in a year.

‘While an improvement in oil prices towards $40 per barrel WTI saved a significant number of E&Ps and prevented early Chapter 11 filings in June-July, the current price environment is in no way sufficient for a large number of E&Ps in the medium-term. As hedging programmes set at WTI $50+ per barrel expire in the second half of this year, we anticipate greater financial pressure on the industry unless WTI prices recover further,’ said Artem Abramov, Rystad Energy’s head of shale research.

INDUSTRY NEWS

UK to review oil and gas licensing with a view to achieving zero emissions The UK Government is reviewing its offshore oil and gas licensing regime as part of the wider aim of achieving net zero emissions by 2050.

Initial findings and next steps will be published in the upcoming Energy White Paper.

‘Over half of the UK’s electricity comes from clean sources including wind and solar energy. However, oil and natural gas are still required for heating, cooking and transport, and vital to the production of many everyday essentials such as medicines, plastics, cosmetics and household appliances. This is likely to remain the case over the coming decades as the UK transitions to low carbon solutions,’ said a UK government statement.

The UK’s independent Committee on Climate Change has recognized the continuing demand for oil and natural gas, including it in all scenarios it proposed for how the UK meets its target for achieving net zero emissions by 2050.

‘The oil and gas sector supports

270,000 jobs across the UK and plays a key role in developing the infrastructure and capability for green technologies such as carbon capture and storage and hydrogen power. The oil and gas sector is also a major source of tax revenue for public services and has provided more than £330 billion to the UK Government from production taxation alone in today’s prices,’ said a UK government statement.

The UK government will also publish the North Sea Transition Deal within the term of the current parliament, and will set out more details later this year of how it plans to work with the sector to support a transition to low carbon energy sources, while getting the benefit from the limited reserves in the North Sea and protecting highly skilled jobs.

The UK Oil and Gas Authority is implementing a programme to integrate net zero considerations into its core business.

Licences awarded in the 32nd Offshore Licensing Round are expected to be stewarded under this new strategy.

Polarcus wins 3D survey in West Africa

Polarcus has been awarded an XArray 3D marine seismic acquisition project in West Africa starting in October 2020 with an expected duration of two months.

The company is also offering its Cygnus multi-client 3D dataset ahead of Western Australia’s licensing round for new offshore acreage. The areas on offer include blocks AC20-4 and

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AC20-5 in the Vulcan Sub-Basin, which had previously been considered non prospective when reviewed using legacy data. The new Cygnus data shows a number of new leads, such as the deep Permian carbonates and Jurassic sand bodies now seen in the Swan Graben. Bidding for these blocks will close on 1 June 2021.

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TGS starts first airborne survey with eFTG project in Egypt

An eFTG survey aircraft in Cairo.

TGS has started its first regional airborne Enhanced Full Tensor Gravity Gradiometry (eFTG) multi-client survey – together with magnetic and Lidar data – over the Upper Egypt region of the country. The survey is designed to provide high-resolution imaging of the region with increased accuracy and higher spatial resolution to enhance exploration activities.

TGS, in partnership with AustinBridgeporth, was recently granted rights to acquire eFTG data (the world’s highest resolution gravity imagery) across the whole of Egypt. The first phase of the project covers an area of approx.

120,000 km2 over which GANOPE manages all upstream and downstream oil and gas activities. The survey aims to provide data on the geological structures and sedimentary basins in Upper Egypt to enable the country’s government to launch new international onshore bid rounds for the region.

This is the first phase of a planned programme that will roll into a multi-year acquisition that aims to cover both onshore and offshore Egypt. The eFTG technology used for data acquisition is being applied for the first time in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA).

Rune Eng, executive vice-president, international at TGS, said: ‘We will, for the first time, provide much-needed high resolution data to a region that is set to significantly step-up its hydrocarbon activities in 2020 and beyond. Along with our partner, AustinBridgeporth, we are looking forward to a significant long-term relationship with GANOPE.’

INDUSTRY NEWS

ION reports second quarter loss of $5 million ION Geophysical has reported a net loss of $5.2 million on revenues of $22.7 million for the second quarter 2020, compared with a net loss of $8.6 million on revenues of $41.8 million one year ago.

ION’s net loss was $7.5 million in the first half of 2020, compared with a net loss of $30 million in the first half of 2019.

Net cash provided by operating activities was $23.3 million in the second quarter of 2020 compared to $1.1 million in the second quarter 2019. At quarter close, the company’s total liquidity was $71.3 million.

Within the E&P Technology & Services segment revenues were $15 million, down from $28.5 million in Q2 2019.

Multi-client revenues were $11.6 million, a decrease of 49%, primarily due to

reduced sales of ION’s global data library.

Imaging and Reservoir Services revenues were $3.7 million, a decrease of 36%, due to lower proprietary tender activity.

Operations Optimization segment revenues of $7.5 million were down from $13 million in Q2 2019. Optimization Software & Services revenues were $3.4 million, a 41% decrease due to reduced seismic activity resulting from Covid-19.

Devices revenues were $4.1 million, a 45% decrease from the second quarter 2019, due to lower sales of towed streamer equipment spares and repairs.

Consolidated operating expenses were $10.1 million, down from $22.1 million in the second quarter 2019.

Chris Usher, ION’s president and chief executive officer, said. ‘Although commodity prices rebounded significant-

ly, the sharp decline earlier this year triggered E&P companies to reduce 2020 budgets, which tends to disproportionately impact discretionary purchases such as seismic data sales.

‘In spite of reduced offshore activity and Covid-19 travel challenges, I’m pleased we garnered commercial support and permits for a new 3D multi-client programme in the North Sea. While we expect to acquire the majority of the programme next summer, we may start an initial phase later this year to avoid disruptions around large windfarm installations. We continued to build on our highly successful portfolio of low cost, high return reimaging programmes with a new programme in Mauritania. The global 2D data collaboration with PGS is progressing well.’

TGS starts innovative OBN project in Atlantic Margin

Atlantic Margin 20 3D multi-client seismic project.

TGS has deployed a pioneering sparse ocean bottom node (OBN) survey in the Atlantic Margin off the coast of mid Norway. This initial study phase is providing proof of concept ahead of further survey proposals to highlight hydrocarbon potential in the region.

The OBN survey, in collaboration with Polarcus, has been deployed to coincide with the acquisition of the TGS AM20 seismic survey at the same location to enhance efficiencies and combine the recorded OBN data with conventional

3D streamer data to improve imaging of sediments below complex volcanic deposits.

TGS is conducting similar surveys in the Gulf of Mexico, namely Amendment and Engagement. Fast track results from last year’s Amendment sparse node programme have already provided impressive imaging uplift and enhanced velocity accuracy, especially when combined with TGS’ proprietary Dynamic-Matching Full Wave Inversion (DM FWI) technology, said TGS.

Australia launches latest bidding round Australia has launched the 2020 Offshore Petroleum Exploration Acreage Release, comprising 42 areas in Commonwealth waters off Western Australia, Victoria, Northern Territory and the Territory of Ashmore and the Cartier Islands.

Approximately 100,000 km2 of acreage has been made available for

exploration across five basins including Bonaparte, Browse, Northern Carnarvon, Otway and Gippsland basins.

Australia’s energy minister Keith Pitt said: ‘The government strongly believes exploration will play a key role in helping our economy recover from the pandemic.

This year’s release is dominated by areas

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in established oil and gas provinces with existing infrastructure. This is consistent with the drive to ensure major projects have and maintain steady supply into the future.’

All areas in the 2020 Acreage Release are based on industry nominations. Bidding will close on 1 June 2021.

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Europe predicted to spend £35 billion on CCS in next 15 years Some $35 billion in investment on largescale CCS developments could be spent by 2035 – with as much as 75 million tonnes of CO2 captured per year – according to research by Rystad Energy.

In Europe alone there are around 10 larger projects, with both carbon capture and storage, that are planned and have a high chance of being operational by 2035.

Most of them are located around the North Sea in Norway, the UK, Denmark and the Netherlands, but there are also projects on the drawing board in Ireland and Italy.

Although most of the projects are expected to be online from the middle of this decade, investments and contracts awarded to suppliers will already start to grow significantly from 2021 to 2023, as most projects have a development timeline of three to five years. Total capital investment for these projects is expected to reach $30 billion, in addition to operational expenditure totalling $5 billion until 2035.

The first three projects that are due to become operational are Acorn CCS, Northern Lights and Porthos, which will be game-changing as they will de-risk the overall CCS uncertainty, said Rystad.

More than twice as many projects, in count and size, are likely to follow.

With the projects so far planned in Europe, Rystad expects 3 million tonnes per annum (tpa) of CO2 capture and storage capacity will be added each year from 2021 to 2025, then jumping to 7 million tpa in 2026–2030. By 2035 a total installed capacity of around 75 million tpa, with almost 80% coming from UK projects, is predicted..

Currently, there are only two complete full-scale CO2 projects operational in Europe: The CO2 injection projects at Norway’s offshore fields Sleipner and Snohvit, with a combined CO2 capture and storage capacity of around 1.5 million tpa.

Europe has about 1000 larger industrial sites, such as cement plants, steel producers, fossil power and waste-to-en-

ergy plants, that could all be candidates for capturing CO2. About 250 of these are within reasonable shipping distance for sending CO2 to be stored in the North Sea. Worldwide, there could be around 6000 industrial plants suitable for CO2 capture.

‘Several European policymakers and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) have previously indicated they are ready to rule out CCS as a climate mitigation tool, saying the technology is not proven and available and has unrealistic expectations. For CCS to have a significant future, it’s therefore important that Northern Lights and Acorn run through their pilot stages to show that this can be a proven technology,’ said Rystad Energy’s head of energy service research Audun Martinsen. ‘As standard renewable technologies that have some maturity in Europe such as solar installations and offshore wind farms are increasingly gaining market share, CCS projects will face competition and have to prove cost-worthy,’ said Martinsen.

Schlumberger enters into geothermal energy joint venture with TEP Schlumberger New Energy and Thermal Energy Partners (TEP) have teamed up to create STEP Energy, a geothermal project development company.

‘Through GeothermEx, a Schlumberger company, we have acquired extensive knowledge of geothermal resource assessment and project design implementation,’ said Ashok Belani, executive vice president, Schlumberger New Energy. ‘By combining our geothermal, subsurface and drilling expertise with TEP’s experience in project development and risk mitigation, we will develop de-risked and streamlined geothermal projects on a global scale.’

STEP hopes to build many plants.

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STEP Energy will benefit from the partners’ project execution, drilling, subsurface evaluation and digital technology integration expertise, combined with systems engineering, modelling, data analytics and machine learning capabilities.

The new company’s first project is the 10-MW Nevis Geothermal Power Project on the Caribbean island of Nevis, which will enable the island to transition to 100% zero-emission renewable energy for its power supply. STEP Energy said that it has already identified opportunities to expand production in the eastern Caribbean and in North and South America.

Turkey sends seismic vessel into Mediterranean waters claimed by Greece

Seismic vessel Oruc Reis.

President Erdogan of Turkey has sent a seismic vessel into Mediterranean waters recently claimed by both Turkey and Greece after recent maritime agreements (Turkey with Libya, Greece with Egypt). The Turkish navy accompanied the seismic vessel Oruc Reis, which was surveying the waters between Crete and Greece until 23 August.

The Times in London reported last month that amid rising tensions with its Mediterranean neighbours, Erdogan accused Turkey’s neighbours of ‘banditry’ and vowed to continue undersea gas explorations despite mounting pressure from the European Union.

Josep Borrell, the EU’s foreign policy chief, has urged ‘immediate de-escalation’ after Turkey extended the mission of its

drill ship Yavuz, which is stationed southwest of Cyprus, until mid-September.

Erdogen said: ‘We will never bow down to banditry on our continental shelf.

We will not back down to the language of sanctions and threats,’ he told a meeting of his AK Party in his home province of Rize, on the Black Sea. ‘The Oruc Reis will continue its activities. In this period, we will not hesitate to respond to the slightest harassment of our ship.’

Greece, Cyprus, Egypt and Israel have signed a series of bilateral agreements carving up the eastern Mediterranean between them, and the EU backed Cyprus and Greece after Turkey carried out hydrocarbon explorations in the contested waters. A bilateral maritime agreement signed between Turkey and Libya in November has not been recognised by any other Mediterranean states.

Erdogan said that Turkey was willing to reach a resolution with Greece over the two countries’ overlapping maritime claims. ‘If we act with common sense and reason, we can find a win-win solution that meets everyone’s interests,’ Erdogan said. ‘We are not chasing any unnecessary adventures or seeking tensions.’

DUG signs deal to supply Equinor with seismic technology DUG has signed a multi-year deal with Equinor covering seismic processing and imaging technology.

As part of the deal, Equinor will replace existing third-party technology with an integrated solution using DUG’s McCloud platform, which allows clients to mix and match high-performance computing as a service (HPCaaS), seismic processing and imaging (P&I) services, and DUG Insight geoscience software.

DUG managing director Dr Matthew Lamont said: ‘We demonstrated that the ease of use, effectiveness and productivity of DUG Insight within the McCloud environment have the potential to provide short and longterm benefits, not to mention saving considerable money along the way.’

DUG has developed a cooling method which reduces energy use and increases the life and efficiency of its hardware. The DUG Cool system, in which standard high-performance computing servers are submerged in a special fluid, delivers total power savings of about 46% over a traditional, air-cooled room, said DUG.

TGS launches 3D onshore survey in the US TGS has launced the Voyager 3D multi-client US onshore 3D seismic survey within the Powder River Basin in Wyoming.

Voyager 3D will encompass approx.

555 km2 in Johnson County. The high-resolution survey is ideally situated in the high potential trend to the north of the basin, where the prospective stratigraphic section of stacked reservoirs exceeds 5000 ft in thickness. Unconventional targets include two world-class source rocks, the Niobrara and Mowry, along with numerous historically productive formations including the upper and lower Creta-

ceous sandstones and the Pennsylvanian, that are now being exploited successfully with unconventional technologies.

Permitting activities will commence this year with recording of data expected to complete in December 2021 and final products available in Q2 2022. The data will be processed by TGS. The Voyager 3D survey is complemented by TGS’ fully interpreted regional basin stratigraphic model that is analytics-ready, derived from a library of well data, said TGS. More than 41,000 LAS logs, 38,700 ARLAS, and more

than 145,000 raster logs are immediately available for the Powder River Basin.

Kristian Johansen, CEO at TGS, said: ‘While we are being very selective with respect to new onshore investments in the market, the Voyager 3D project is a good example of a project that checks all boxes with respect to the geology, activity, economics and customer support. This project, which is our second in the Powder River Basin, will allow our customers to de-risk their development activities, helping them to generate value in a challenging market.’

INDUSTRY NEWS

Schlumberger signs cloud deal with IBM Schlumberger, IBM and Red Hat have struck an agreement to provide global access to Schlumberger’s exploration and production (E&P) cloud-based environment and cognitive applications by leveraging IBM’s hybrid cloud technology, built on the Red Hat OpenShift container platform.

The collaboration will initially focus on private, hybrid or multi-cloud deployment of the DELFI cognitive E&P environment enabled by Red Hat OpenShift to expand access for customers and delivering the first hybrid cloud implementation of the OSDU data platform (the open data platform for the industry).

The partners have committed to the exclusive use of Red Hat OpenShift.

Using the container platform to enable the deployment of applications in the DELFI environment across any infrastructure, from traditional data centres to multiple clouds, including private and public. This new way of hosting will offer the possibility to use multiple cloud providers and

will facilitate in-country deployments in compliance with local regulations and data residency requirements.

The DELFI environment incorporates data analytics and artificial intelligence, drawing upon multiple data sources, automating workflows, and facilitating seamless collaboration for domain teams.

Many more oil and gas operators, suppliers and partners will be enabled to work on a standard, open platform, where they can ‘write once and run everywhere’ when creating new applications.

Olivier Le Peuch, chief executive officer, Schlumberger, said: ‘Together, we are enabling seamless access to a hybrid cloud platform in all countries across the globe for deployment in any basin, for any operator.’

Arvind Krishna, chief executive officer, IBM, said: ‘Together with Schlumberger, we are empowering a much broader group of participants to play a role in driving that transformation and helping the energy industry solve some of

the world’s toughest challenges to emerge stronger.’

Paul Cormier, president and chief executive officer, Red Hat, said: ‘Organizations are looking to adopt digital technologies to create a competitive advantage, and innovate and integrate workflows to make faster and better decisions. A hybrid cloud foundation built on open source offers the flexibility, acceleration and innovation this digital transformation requires.’

The organisations intend to further their collaboration with the creation of a differentiated data management and operations solution for the OSDU data platform, enabling oil and gas operators to build, deploy and transition digital solutions with hybrid-cloud data infrastructures.

Schlumberger, IBM and Red Hat have piloted the new hybrid cloud deployment of the DELFI environment on Red Hat OpenShift, the leading Kubernetes platform.

US industry body criticises Trump’s block on Eastern Gulf of Mexico oil and gas development The American Petroleum Institute (API) has criticised the Trump administration’s decision to extend the moratorium on energy development on the Eastern Gulf of Mexico (EGOM) and expand it to the South Atlantic.

‘Extending the moratorium in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico and expanding it to the South Atlantic is the wrong approach at the

wrong time. Offshore access is critical for growing US energy leadership and providing affordable energy for American families for decades to come,’ API vice-president of upstream policy Lem Smith said.

Recent studies by Quest Offshore Resources Inc. show that offshore oil and natural gas leasing in the Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) and Eastern

Gulf of Mexico could contribute billions of dollars to state economies including: $4.5 billion to the Florida economy within 20 years, $5.9 billion in new revenue for the government within 20 years after initial leasing along the Atlantic OCS; $2.5 billion per year to South Carolina’s gross domestic product; and $350 million per year to Georgia’s economy.

CGG announces new 3D survey in the Northern North Sea CGG has announced a new multi-client 3D survey in the Northern North Sea, which will provide a second azimuth over its existing Northern Viking Graben (NVG) multi-client 3D survey and extend into open acreage on offer in the UK 32nd Licensing Round.

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direction. This new data will be processed together with the existing N-S data, using CGG’s latest velocity modelling and imaging technology, to produce a dual-azimuth volume. The added azimuth will specifically address and improve the imaging of multi-directional fault patterns prevalent in the region. Improved resolution will help to resolve complex and

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marginal reservoir stratigraphy.

Sophie Zurquiyah, CEO, CGG, said: ‘This new survey is the first in a planned multi-year project. Leveraging our strategic partner, Shearwater GeoServices, it draws on CGG’s extensive understanding of the Northern Viking Graben and builds on our 44,000 km2 of existing coverage in the Northern North Sea.’

INDUSTRY NEWS

Geoteric launches AI seismic interpretation tools

BRIEFS Ocean Floor Geophysics (OFG) has acquired the exclusive rights to use PGS’s towed-streamer CSEM system. Dr Lucy MacGregor, principal scientist at OFG Multiphysics said: ‘The PGS towed streamer CSEM system is capable of rapid acquisition of high-quality marine CSEM and is a perfect complement to existing seismic data.’

Industry body Oil & Gas UK (OGUK) has appointed three business leaders to its board: Alexandra Thomas, the UK managing director of Neptune Energy, Emeka Emembolu, BP’s senior vice-president for the North Sea, and Mark Abbey, regional director for CHC Helicopter’s European, Middle East and African business.

The software will remove faults from data more quickly.

Geoteric has launched two new seismic interpretation products, powered by artificial intelligence (AI): Collaborative AI and Geoteric Stratum.

Collaborative AI enhances traditional interpretation, and efficiently extracts faults from seismic data at the click of a button – no requirement for network training, said Geoteric. By moving from line by line manual analysis to Collaborative AI, the interpretation is augmented with artificial intelligence, which enables faster and more accurate results.

Geoteric Stratum is a new cloudbased AI software that delivers simple

usability and even greater detail for fault identification, reservoir compartmentalization, and well trajectory planning, said Geoteric. ‘By adding an extra dimension of analysis, Geoteric Stratum achieves outstanding results with an intuitive workflow and provides critical information that will inform exploration and development decisions,’ the company said.

Nicola Blanshard, CEO of Geoteric, said: ‘This leading-edge AI technology has been offered exclusively through consultancy projects during the past 12 months. The feedback we have received has been very positive.’

Axxis Geo Solutions (AGS) has struck a data licensing agreement with an international oil company. The late sale is related to the company’s OBN seismic data library over Utsira in Norway. The survey, completed in partnership with TGS and DUG, will be ready for licensing in September 2020. The Utsira OBN survey is the world’s largest multi-client project of its kind.

Research by Wood Mackenzie has shown that the power generation sector in Asia Pacific could attract $1.5 trillion worth of investments by 2030. Solar and wind represents a $1 trillion investment opportunity in Asia Pacific through 2030, while fossil fuels, mainly coal and gas, make up the remaining $500 billion.

Shearwater teams up with ION on Mid-North Sea High 3D acquisition Shearwater GeoServices has won a new 3D seismic acquisition project as part of ION Geophysical’s UK Mid-North Sea High (‘MNSH’) programme.

The vessel Amazon Warrior will spend approx. six weeks acquiring the initial phase of the MNSH 3D survey in Q3 2020 under an agreement that provides Shearwater with a revenue-sharing mechanism. This survey is part of a larger programme proposed by ION to be acquired 2020-2021. The agreement

Total has resigned as operator for five exploration blocks in the Foz do Amazonas Basin, 120 km offshore Brazil. The exploration blocks are FZA-M-57, FZA-M86, FZA-M-88, FZA-M-125 and FZA-M-127.

also establishes a framework for the use of Shearwater’s vessels for ION 3D multi-client projects with conditional links to potential upcoming projects.

‘ION has been a technology partner and supplier for years. This new cooperative agreement with ION, and MNSH 3D project, forms the basis for a new customer for Shearwater with the potential for further projects in the future,’ said Irene Waage Basili, the CEO of Shearwater GeoServices.

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ExxonMobil has made its 18th discovery offshore Guyana at the Redtail-1 well, which will add to the previously announced estimated recoverable resource of more than 8 billion oil-equivalent barrels on the Stabroek Block. The well is located approx. 2.5 km northwest of the Yellowtail discovery.

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2D survey looks for rich seam in Ontario goldmine Pacton Gold Inc is carrying out a seismic survey at its Red Lake Gold project in Ontario, Canada. The 2D seismic test survey by Pure Gold Mining Inc will define extensions of mineralized structures to support exploration and resource expansion at its Madsen gold mine, scheduled to commence production this year. Madsen is adjacent to Pacton’s property, and the survey will include 13 km of seismic line data over Pacton’s claims. The resulting data will further define structural controls on the Red Lake Property, which are similar to the Madsen project.

The seismic lines on Pacton’s pro-

ject closely overlap several high priority exploration areas identified using AI technology, and the data will enhance the targeting in those regions.

The survey will target the extension of mineralized structures to support exploration at Pure Gold’s adjacent Madsen mine project.

Dale Ginn, executive chairman for Pacton Gold, said, ‘The timing of the Pure Gold survey is particularly useful for Pacton. We are entering the final stages of drill targeting at our adjacent Red Lake exploration project, and the survey data will be of significant value in prioritizing our targets.’

PGS completes 3D survey offshore Angola The PGS vessel Ramform Sovereign has completed a large acquisition project offshore Angola using multisensor GeoStreamer technology.

The 2020 PGS Namibe Basin survey connects the 3D seismic coverage of southern Angola with PGS seismic data library coverage in Namibia, completing a large multi-client footprint of broadband seismic data that spans the Namibe Basin.

Predicted reservoir presence and distribution maps indicate that this area contains a variety of leads and prospects.

Full depth-imaging incorporating FWI velocity model building will improve knowledge of the subsurface petroleum system and reduce the risk for frontier exploration, said PGS. The fast-track data for the Angola Namibe Basin will be available in late Q4 2020.

Liberia prequalifies seven local companies for offshore licensing round Liberia has pre-qualified seven local companies for the West African country’s offshore licensing round for the Harper Basin.

The prequalification of Demus, Jungle Energy Power, New Millennium Oil and Gas, Africa Oil and Gas, Green Petroleum (Liberia), MAC-Africa Petroleum and TSC Global is in line with the New Petroleum Law of Liberia which sets aside a mandatory minimum 5% equity interest 30

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in all petroleum agreements to companies owned by Liberian citizens.

The list of prequalified Liberian companies will be submitted to qualified international bidders for possible partnership in fulfilment of the amended petroleum law. Nine oil offshore blocks, which have been unexplored in the Harper Basin, are being offered for biding.

The bid round runs from April 2020 to February 2021.

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Inventor of the EnKF algorithm wins NPD’s IOR award

NPD general director Ingrid Sølvberg presents the IOR award to Geir Evensen of NORCE (photo: NPD)

Geir Evensen of NORCE research institute in Norway has been awarded the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate’s 16th award for improved oil recovery, beating submissions from the Grane field in the North Sea and oil company Lundin.

‘Evensen has made significant contributions over several years towards the development of modelling methods based on the ensemble approach. This technology is used extensively among the oil and gas companies on the Norwegian shelf,’ said the NPD. Evensen invented the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) algorithm in 1994, which has been further developed by several international oil companies. In the 2000s, he led the work to implement this model at Equinor.

‘The method, which in Equinor is called FMU (Fast Model Update), is a workflow for reservoir modelling where we use a number of models in parallel to describe the reservoir’s uncertainty,’ Evensen said. ‘We can also quickly update the reservoir models based on observed data. This gives us a better description of the reservoir’s associated uncertainties, which is useful in the placement of wells and the development of drainage strategies.’

The jury, comprising seven representatives from different disciplines in the NPD, considered 24 nominations.

NEWS FEATURE

How will the 2020 oil crisis end?

Rasoul Sorkhabi1 discusses various factors and scenarios for an oil price recovery in the near future.

Oil, natural gas, and coal account for 84% of world’s energy consumption (BP, 2020), and oil with a $1374 billion trade value is the largest commodity in international commerce (the second largest commodity, cars, with $1350 billion trade value, are also closely related to oil consumption) (Teltrac Navman, 2018). As such, the petroleum industry is a significant part of the world economy. This industry also employs tens of millions of people around the world. In the US, for instance, last year there were 141,000 people employed directly in oil and gas extraction (US Bureau of Labor, 2019). The overall impact of the hydrocarbon industry, however, is much larger than its upstream sector; it also includes transportation, refining, storage, petrochemicals, pharmaceuticals, electric power plants, distribution, retail sale, management, and so forth. According to the 2019 US Energy and Employment Report, the traditional energy sectors employed 6.7 million Americans out of a workforce of approximately 147 million (USEER, 2019). Moreover, the hydrocarbon industry has traditionally employed a large proportion of geoscience and engineering graduates, and has funded numerous research

consortia and projects in universities and research institutes.

For these reasons, oil market crashes, as we have witnessed in 2020, adversely affect not only the hydrocarbon industry and its employees but also other industries and services downstream of oil and gas. In the first quarter of 2020, the oil market experienced a major crash, unprecedented in some respects. Oil prices at $6165 a barrel in early January fell in April to $15 a barrel for North Sea Brent crude in Europe and to negative prices for West Texas Intermediate crude in the USA (Figure 1). The market crash was due to reduced demand for oil during the coronavirus pandemic and lockdowns, and also due to the price feuds between Russia and Saudi Arabia, the world’s top oil producers, to secure their market shares in the world (Sorkhabi, 2020).

A question on everyone’s mind in the hydrocarbon industry and economic circles is this: When will the 2020 oil crash end?

Perhaps we can approach the question of ‘when’ by examining several scenarios of ‘how’. First, we need a yardstick to measure normalcy because oil prices fluctuate, by and large, over time.

Perhaps $65 a barrel, which was the price of oil when 2020 started, is a reasonable yardstick. With this, let’s examine some fundamental factors and scenarios for the near-future oil industry, and see which scenario is most probable. These scenarios are labelled V, √, U, W, and L (Figure 2). The perspective of this article is short-term oil prices (in the next five years or so); longterm forecasts for the oil and gas industry (in the next decades) is not the focus of this article.

Figure 1 Oil prices from January 1 through June 23, 2020 for North Sea Brent crude (a) and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude (b) (data source: Business Markets Insider).

The oil price trend indicates a rough, asymmetric V-shaped recovery in 2021. Note that on 20 April, just a day before the oil trades for the month of May ended, futures prices for WTI for May dropped to minus $37 a barrel – something unprecedented in the history of oil. The reason was that Oklahoma’s Cushing, the delivery route for WTI, already had full inventories and no spare storage capacity. That is why Brent and OPEC basket crude oils in Europe and Asia did not experience this historical crash because they could be shipped from numerous points worldwide. In New York, many oil traders, mainly speculators and hedgers, who had bought oil did not have the intention or means of keeping it, so they sold it at negative prices before the deadline to avoid the actual process of handling and storing crude oil. This exposed a dichotomy between ‘physical oil’ handled by the oil industry, and ‘paper oil’ traded by market speculators.

1

University of Utah, Energy & Geoscience Institute

*

Corresponding author, E-mail: rsorkhabi@egi.utah.edu

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The V scenario forecasts that just as oil prices crashed rapidly, within two months in early 2020, they will also bounce back as soon as the pandemic and lockdowns are over, and transportation fully resumes. The current price pattern points to an asymmetric V-shaped scenario in early 2021. For the period April 21-August 5, prices for Brent doubled from $20 to $46 within three months.

During this period, prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) increased from -$37 to $41 a barrel. These price increases resulted from two factors. Firstly, the Organization of Oil Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia (OPEC Plus) announced in late April that they would cut their oil production by 9.7 million barrels per day (or nearly 10% of the world’s oil production) for the months of May and June, which was then extended to July.

For August-September OPEC Plus has agreed to cut production by 8.5 million barrels per day. This drained away some of the glut in oil supply. According to OPEC Plus’s initial agreement, they would continue their production cuts by 7.7 million barrels per day for the rest of 2020 (US News and World Report, 2020).

The second factor in the oil price increases has been the gradual loosening of lockdowns.

It is thus possible to regain oil prices of $65 a barrel in a year or two if the gradual lifting of lockdowns and the OPEC Plus production cuts continue, and a vaccine is found for the covid19.. The V-shape scenario, however, has two characteristics: first it is a rough line with small bumps; second, it is asymmetric with its lowest point on the 20 April price crash. The reason for the asymmetry is that market openings are carried out gradually.

The square-root shape scenario is based on the thinking that as the pandemic diminishes and the economy recovers, there will be a huge jump in oil consumption, but oil supplies at that time will be temporarily lower than demand because of the downsizing, layoffs, reduced budgets, bankruptcies, and oil well shut-downs that the oil industry underwent in 2020. This forecast was made by the US Energy Information Administration in their April 2002 report on Short-Term Energy Outlook (EIA, 2020) (Figure 3). It argued that when 2020 started the world was using more than 100 million barrels of oil per day, and this consumption level may be regained at the beginning of 2021, but oil production will then be several million barrels below the consumption level. This implies that oil prices may jump by $65 for several months in 2021.

Figure 2 Various scenarios for oil price recovery in the near future.

Figure 3 US Energy Information Administration forecast for oil market recovery in 2021 (EIA, 2020).

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Figure 4 Reports in 1918 of the impact of ‘Spanish flu’ on US oil fields (US National Petroleum News, vol.

10, October 1918, p. 20 and 28.

Other factors too can cause huge jumps in oil prices quickly.

These include a major war in the Middle East or other oil producing regions of the world or the spread of the coronavirus to oil fields, companies, and operations. Both of these events would seriously disrupt the flow of oil to markets. They may be unlikely but not impossible. OPEC countries, which possess 70% of world’s proven oil reserves and produce about 35% of world’s oil production, have long been in a state of internal or external conflict. In the May 2020 issue of the New Orleans Geological Society Log, Jeff Spencer presented several newspaper items showing how the 1918 Spanish Flu hit the oil industry (Spencer, 2020) (Figure 4). Offshore oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, North Sea and elsewhere may be vulnerable to the current pandemic because of their cramped containment and limited medical facilities (Cona, 2020). There have been reports of workers in offshore Brazil, Kazakhstan and the Gulf of Mexico who were infected by coronavirus, although these have been isolated incidences, and not a serious industry-wide threat.

The U scenario – the prolonged recovery – assumes that the pandemic and its adverse economic impact will take several years. In other words, unless a successful vaccine and medical solution for coronavirus has not been found, the world economy will not fully recover.

The W scenario – the volatile cycles of ups and downs – assumes that the pandemic-economy nexus will move in a series of waves, or even if the pandemic is over and economy recovers in early 2021, OPEC and Russia will restore their price wars, on and off, at the time of their choosing. This is a real possibility as there is huge competition among the world’s major oil producers to keep their market shares, and the American oil industry, which has enjoyed remarkable success in shale oil production, is the target of OPEC Plus’s price wars. Nevertheless, since low oil prices also

hurt the oil-dependent economies of OPEC Plus, they may avoid oil market crashes of the magnitude that happened in 2020.

The L scenario is based on the thinking that once oil prices rise to $50, renewable energy technologies will be commercially feasible, competitive, and even more attractive because of environmental concerns, political will, and grassroots support to reduce the world’s dependency on the volatile oil. The L scenario will also be heightened if oil producers maintain considerable spare production capacity for years. In these cases, oil may enjoy a short-lived price comeback, but there will never be high prices again.

The L scenario becomes a strong case if we consider Europe and European oil companies as trendsetters for the near future of energy. Europe, more than other regions of the world, is keen to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in accordance with the 2016 Paris Agreement to combat global warming. In that vein, major European oil companies have announced their plans for the net zero carbon footprint by 2050 and portray themselves more as energy companies than oil companies. It is not clear how these companies define ‘net zero carbon’ and how they will achieve this target in three decades. Nevertheless, even if we take the Europeans’ stated mission at face value, the rest of the world may not follow their suit or pace, especially if cheap oil poses a major competition to the development of renewable energy resources.

Concluding Remarks Long-term predictions of the oil industry are indeed hard to nearly impossible. However, given the threat of global warming and other environmental considerations, it is conceivable that in the next three decades the world will go through an energy transition to more environment friendly energy sources including solar, wind and geothermal power and massive use of natural gas for electricity generation. Advanced battery technologies and electric cars may largely replace oil as fuel. The traditional petroleum industry as a FIRST

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major commercial enterprise will thus evolve in new directions. In June this year, Goldman Sachs reported that renewable energy will create a $16 trillion investment opportunity through to 2030 (Wink, 2020). If this happens, it will be a major push for renewable energy technologies in the long term. In the meantime, the recent trend of oil prices indicates a slow, steady rise in 2021-2022 if lockdowns are gradually lifted and OPEC Plus’s production cuts continue to drain away any oil glut.

https://www.geoexpro.com/articles/2020/04/oil-crisis-2020-oil-glutand-price-wars-in-the-great-lockdown-economy Spencer, Jeff [2020]. Flu in the oil fields 191. New Orleans Geological Society Log, 60(11), 17-18.

Teletrac Navman [2018]. Top imports and exports infographics: https:// www.teletracnavman.com/resources/resource-library/infographics/ top-imports-and-exports-infographic US Bureau of Labor [2019]. May 2019 National Industry-Specific Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates, NAICS 21100 –

References

Oil and Gas Extracts: https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/naics4_

BP (British Petroleum), [2020]. BP Statistical Review of World Energy

211100.htm

2020; https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/ statistical-review-of-world-energy.html

US New and World Report [April 10, 2020]. Global pact to contain oil price crash takes shape: https://www.usnews.com/news/business/

Conca, James [2020]. Offshore oil rigs are a special case of COVID-19, Forbes magazine, April 28, 2020: https://www.forbes.com/sites/ jamesconca/2020/04/28/offshore-oil-rigs-are-a-special-case-for-covid-19/#621016536b82

articles/2020-04-10/saudi-state-tv-opec-deal-includes-10m-barrelper-day-cut USEER (US Energy & Employment Report) [2019]. https://www. usenergyjobs.org/2019-report

EIA (US Energy Information Administration), [2020]. Short-Term Energy

Wink, Ben [2020]. Goldman Sachs says renewable-energy spending

Outlook (April 2020): https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/

will surpass oil and gas for the first time ever in 2021, Markets

Apr20.pdf

Business Insider, 17 June, 2020: https://markets.businessinsider.com/

Sorkhabi, Rasoul [2020]. Oil crisis 2020 crash: oil glut and price wars in the great lockdown economy. GeoExpro, 17(1) Web Exclusive:

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news/stocks/renewable-energy-trillion-investment-opportunity-surpass-oil-first-time-goldman-2020-6-1029318482

04/06/2020 15:21

Special Topic

ENERGY TRANSITION The energy transition is continuing apace. Over the past few months many of the biggest oil and gas companies have published commitments towards becoming carbon neutral in the next few decades. As a result, the generation of cleaner energies such as wind and geothermal and the development of large-scale projects to capture and store CO2 will become a far more significant part of the industry. Geoscientists will be at the heart of research and development of the technical solutions that will enable global energy players to meet their carbon reducing commitments.

This month we showcase projects using the latest seismic technology that will help to decarbonize the world by locating geothermal energy sources, capturing and storing carbon and developing cleaner fuels for seismic shipping fleets.

Daniel Stoddart et al predict oil/gas pay intervals leveraging machine learning methodology using features (well logs) and labels (petrophysical properties) as training data.

Dr Marit B. Brommer et al predict how geothermal energy will be positioned in the future global energy mix.

Anne-Kari Furre et al present the monitoring plan for the Norwegian full-scale CO2 project, particularly focusing on subsurface monitoring.

Anna L. Stork et al describe deployments of Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) technology at the Hellisheidi and Kizildere geothermal fields in Iceland and Turkey.

E. Hollebeek et al demonstrate the seismic analysis that is leading to increasing use of geothermal energy in the Netherlands’ greenhouse sector.

Oddbjørn Rekaa Nilssen describes how the shipping industry is responding to the challenge of lowering CO2 emissions.

Submit an article

Special Topic overview January

Land Seismic

First Break Special Topics are covered by a mix of original articles dealing with case studies and the latest technology. Contributions to a Special Topic in First Break can be sent directly to the editorial office (firstbreak@eage.org). Submissions will be considered for publication by the editor.

February

Reservoir Monitoring

March

Modelling / Interpretation

April

Passive Seismic / Unconventionals

May

Petroleum Geology

June

Data Processing

It is also possible to submit a Technical Article to First Break. Technical Articles are subject to a peer review process and should be submitted via EAGE’s ScholarOne website: http://mc.manuscriptcentral.com/fb

July

Machine Learning

August

Near Surface Geoscience

September

Reservoir Geoscience and Engineering

October

Energy Transition

November

Marine Seismic & EM

December

Delivering for the Energy Challenge: Today and Tomorrow

You can find the First Break author guidelines online at www.firstbreak.org/guidelines.

More Special Topics may be added during the course of the year.

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CALENDAR

CALENDAR OF EVENTS 16-18 NOVEMBER 2020

1st Geoscience & Engineering in Energy Transition Conference

www.get2020.org

October 2020 5-9 Oct

Geobaikal 2020 6th Scientific Conference www.eage.org

Irkutsk

6-8 Oct

SPE/EAGE Virtual Workshop: Advances in Reservoir Characterisation and Modelling www.eage.org

Online

8-9 Oct

First EAGE Online Workshop on Near Surface in Latin America www.eage.org

Online

19-20 Oct

Data Science in Oil & Gas - First EAGE regional conference in Russia & CIS www.eage.org

Online

21‑22 Oct

Third EAGE Workshop on Unconventional Resources www.eage.org

Online

26‑28 Oct

First EAGE Conference on Seismic Inversion www.eage.org

Online / Porto, Portugal

26-28 Oct

EAGE Workshop on Quantifying Uncertainty in Depth Imaging www.eage.org

Kuala Lumpur

Malaysia

26-30 Oct

27e Réunion des Sciences de la Terre https://rst2020-lyon.sciencesconf.org/

Lyon

France

Russia

November 2020 2-4 Nov

3 rd Asia Pacific Meeting on Near Surface Geoscience & Engineering www.eage.org

Online

2-4 Nov

EAGE Workshop on Fiber Optic Sensins for Energy Applications in Asia Pacific www.eage.org

Online / Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

9 Nov

Fractured Geothermal Reservoirs: Characterising and Modelling Fractures with Limited Datasets www.eage.org

Online

10-13 Nov

XIV International Scientific Conference “Monitoring of Geological Processes and the Ecological Condition of the Environment” www.eage.org

Kyiv

13 Nov

EAGE/BVG/FKPE Joint Workshop on Geothermal Reservoir Development www.eage.org

Online

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Ukraine

CALENDAR

15‑17 Nov

Second EAGE Workshop on Unmanned Aerial Vehicles www.eage.org

Muscat

16‑18 Nov

1st EAGE Geoscience & Engineering in Energy Transition Conference www.get2020.org

Online

16-19 Nov

EAGE Saint Petersburg 2020 Geosciences: Converting Knowledge into Resources www.eage.org

Saint Petersburg

Russia

17 Nov

Marine Technologies 2020 2 nd scientific workshop www.eage.org

Saint Petersburg

Russia

17-19 Nov

First EAGE/SBGf Online Symposium on Rerservoir Monitoring www.eage.org

Online

20-21 Nov

Geoscience2020 - 5 th Geoscience Symposium of the Romanian Society of Applied Geophysics https://geosymposium.org/

Bucharest

Romania

30 Nov 3 Dec

First EAGE Digitalization Conference and Exhibition www.eage.org

Vienna

Austria

Colombia

Oman

December 2020 1‑3 Dec

Second HGS and EAGE Conference on Latin America in Cartagena www.eage.org

Cartagena

6-7 Dec

Third EAGE Workshop on Pore Pressure Prediction www.eage.org

Online

6-7 Dec

EAGE/SEG Research Workshop on Geophysical Aspects of Smart Cities www.eage.org

Online

6-7 Dec

Eighth EAGE Workshop on Passive Seismic www.eage.org

Online

7‑9 Dec

First EAGE Workshop on Geothermal Energy and Hydro Power in Africa www.eage.org

Nairobi

Kenya

7‑9 Dec

International Conference of Young Scientists «GEOTERRACE-2020» https://openreviewhub.org/geoterrace

Lviv

Ukraine

7-11 Dec

Near Surface Geoscience Conference & Exhibition www.nsg2020.org

Amsterdam

Netherlands

8 Dec

Third Young Professionals Summit http://yp-summit.org/

Amsterdam

Netherlands

8-11 Dec

82 nd EAGE Conference & Exhibition 2020 www.eageannual2020.org

Amsterdam

Netherlands

First EAGE Workshop on Optimizing Project Turnaround Performance www.eage.org

London

United Kingdom

1‑3 Mar

EAGE GeoTech 2021 First EAGE Geophysical Monitoring Technology Conference and Exhibition www.eage.org

The Hague

Netherlands

10‑12 Mar

Second EAGE Workshop on Machine Learning www.eage.org

Amsterdam

Netherlands

14‑18 Mar

SAGEEP 2021 www.sageep.org

Denver

United States

23-24 Mar

IPTC 2021 http://2021.iptcnet.org/

Kuala Lumpur

Malaysia

30-31 Mar

First EAGE Workshop on Borehole Geology in Asia Pacific www.eage.org

Perth

Australia

30 Mar 1 Apr

Fifth EAGE Eastern Africa Petroleum Geoscience Forum www.eage.org

Online

February 2021 22‑24 Feb March 2021

EAGE Events

Non-EAGE Events

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HOW TO SECURE YOUR NODAL ACQUISITION?

WiNG IS THE ANSWER! Nantes, France sales.nantes@sercel.com

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