Climate Change and Ecotourism: Challenges and Opportunities The North American Ecotourism Conference Madison, Wisconsin September 27, 2007
Robert B. Richardson, Ph.D. Michigan State University
Outline
Climate change Climate change and tourism Case study I: Mountain tourism (Colorado) Case study II: Coastal tourism (Belize) Implications for transport
Climate Change
Demonstrable changes in global and regional climate • Temperature • Sea levels • Tropical cyclones (intensity, frequency)
Indirect impacts to natural resources • Biodiversity • Erosion/inundation • Coral bleaching
Climate Change (continued)
Changes in natural resources may have measurable economic effects • Demand for tourism • Regional economy of gateway communities
Economic vulnerability for tourism • Dependence on natural resources • Dependence on coastal systems
Responses • • •
Mitigation Adaptation Retreat
Climate Change and Tourism Two relationships: Climate change Æ natural resources 1. - Tourism must adapt to changes that affect its sustainability 2.
Tourism Æ climate change - Tourism contributes to climate change through uses of fossil fuels and emissions of greenhouse gases
Economic Uncertainty
Resource managers and planners face uncertainty of: • Climate impacts on resources • Climate impacts on tourism Direct impacts (temperature, precipitation) Indirect (changes in natural resources)
Gateway communities face economic uncertainties Which risks are most significant for adapting to the effects of climate change?
Case Study I: Mountain Tourism
Mountain communities are increasinglydependent on nature-based tourism • Summer recreation (parks, wilderness) • Winter recreation (skiing)
Outlook for alpine ski industry is gloomy • Previous estimates: 40-100% loss of ski season due to climate change (McBoyle & Wall, 1992) • Integration of snow-making technology reduces losses to 16-52% (Scott, et al, 2002)
Regional economic impact: • Losses of US$20-70 million in Ontario (Scott, et al, 2002) • Losses of US$1.4 billion in Switzerland (Meier, 1998)
Adaptation – seasonal, structural
Mountain Tourism (continued)
Study of impacts of climate change in Rocky Mountain National Park area • Ecological • Economic
Climate change effects suggest longer summer season, expanded shoulder seasons; changes in wildlife, vegetation Economic analysis concerned with impact to tourism, gateway community Objective: to inform park management, community planners
Rocky Mountain National Park
Gateway community: Estes Park, CO Annual visitation: approximately 3.1 million Seasonal variability: 87% of annual visitation occurs between May and October Chief economic driver of Estes Park 416 square miles (approximately 266,000 acres) Dozens of mountains over 13,000 feet in elevation Habitat for elk, moose, bighorn sheep
Rocky Mountain National Park
Rocky Mountain National Park
Contingent Behavior Analysis
Survey-based technique Description of climate effects 1. 2.
Direct – visitor experience Indirect – effects on park resources
Questions about contingent change in tourist behavior
• Number of visits per year • Length of stay
Survey conducted Summer 2001 at Rocky Mountain National Park Can evaluate potential resource scenarios outside historic baseline period
Climate Scenarios
Direct effects
• Temperature, precipitation, snow depth • Two global circulation models (CCC & Hadley)
Indirect effects
• Population dynamics models • Wildlife (elk, ptarmigan) • Vegetation composition
Alpine tundra (%) Conifer forests (%) Open woodland (%)
Other
• Recreation activities • Travel costs, demographic characteristics
Survey
Survey design • Each participant presented with baseline scenario and two climate-driven scenarios
Focus groups, pre-testing Interviewer training Sampling locations 967 respondents (70% response rate)
Survey Results IMPACT Visitors change
CCC
Hadley
Extreme Heat
8.6%
11.1%
16.2%
∆ trips per visitor
+ 0.14
+ 0.10
- 0.09
∆ days per trip
+ 0.10
+ 0.13
- 0.09
∆ visitation (%)
13.6%
9.9%
- 8.8%
∆ visitation (#)
432,533
316,103
- 278,803
1,357,588 1,002,080
- 821,187
∆ visitor days
Regional Economic Impact Economic Impact Mean ∆ in Annual Visitor Days Output US$ millions Employment Impact - # (% jobs)
CCC
Hadley
1,357,588
1,002,080
↓ + $44 (+ 12.4%) + 981 jobs (+ 15.4%)
↓ + $32 (+9.2%) + 725 jobs (+ 11.4%)
Extreme Heat - 821,187
↓ - $26 (- 7.5%) - 600 jobs (- 9.3%)
Mountain Tourism: Conclusions
Summer-season mountain tourism increases with higher temperatures Possible threshold effects at extreme heat levels Longer summer season (58% would visit later in the year) Implications: • Adaptive strategy for resource planning, transportation, infrastructure, employment • Ecological, social effects of increased tourism
Case Study II: Coastal Tourism
Belize – Small Island Developing State (SIDS) Tourism is a significant sector in Belize
• $200 million in tourist expenditures (17% of GDP) • Nearly 10,000 jobs • Important source of tax revenue and foreign exchange earnings
Natural resource-based tourism • Barrier reef • Tropical rainforests
Vulnerable to climate change • Low-lying coast • Coastal communities
Vulnerability assessment for tourism
IV. Economic Vulnerability to Climate Change
Central America
Climate Change
Threatens the sustainability of tourism and other natural-resource based industries Direct effects • Increasing temperature (global warming) • Sea level rise • Increase in frequency and intensity of extreme weather events
Induced effects
• Natural systems • Social systems
Coastal tourism most vulnerable to effects of climate change • Cayes (islands) attract > 70% of tourists • Reef-based tourism (snorkeling, diving) > 81%
Climate Change Effects
Increasing temperatures • Higher energy costs • Tourism demand effects (may avoid hot climates, travel closer to home) • Increase in vector-borne diseases
Changes in precipitation • Flooding, droughts • Seasonal changes • Changes in wildlife, vegetation composition
Climate Change Effects (continued)
Sea level rise • Erosion, land loss, flooding, inundation • Saltwater intrusion
Warmer sea surface temperatures • Coral reef bleaching
Increased frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones • Property damage, infrastructure
Vulnerability
Degree of sensitivity to and inability to cope with the negative impacts of climate change Multi-dimensional – biogeophysical, economic, institutional, socio-cultural Function of exposure and adaptive capacity Difficult to quantify
Vulnerability Assessments
Enable policy makers to • Prioritize adaptive measures • Minimize exposure to risk
Goals • Identify future risks • Identify key vulnerable sectors • Provide basis for adaptation strategies
Vulnerability of Tourism
Short-term effects to tourism systems Tropical storms, hurricanes • Infrastructure, publicity
Coral reef health: 1998 El Nino events Bandos Island, Republic of Maldives • Most of tourism revenue from diving operations • 1998: experienced coral bleaching from warmest year on record Æ 30% decrease in tourism income
Palawan Island, Philippines • • •
1980s – 80% of tourists came for diving 1998: 30-50% coral mortality 2002 – decline in tourism (only around 10% for diving)
Vulnerability of Tourism (continued)
Uyarra et al. (2005) studied preferences of tourists for environmental features in Barbados and Bonaire; found that more than 80% would be unwilling to return in the event of • Coral reef bleaching (Bonaire) • Smaller beach area from erosion (Barbados)
Implications for cayes, coastal areas in Belize
Amelung et al. (2007) concluded that favorable climate conditions were likely to shift poleward (tropical destinations may become “uncomfortable” for general tourism) • More than 80% of visitors to Belize come from USA, Canada, and Europe
Conceptual Framework
Sources of vulnerability • Supply-based Direct climate effects Indirect climate effects Economic (induced) effects
• Demand-based Direct climate effects Indirect climate effects Economic (induced) effects
• Macroeconomic vulnerability
Biogeophysical effects: •Rising temperatures •Sea-surface temperatures •Flood frequency •Erosion, inundation •Biological impacts VULNERABILITY OF TOURISM SYSTEM SUPPLY
DEMAND
Direct •Infrastructure •Land loss
Direct •Weather in host country, origin •Perception of resource quality
Indirect •Availability of attractions, inputs
Indirect •Perception of health, safety
Economic (induced)-factor prices
Economic (induced)-prices, FX
Adaptation or Reconstruction?
Historical record of perverse economic incentives for developing countries Tendency towards reconstruction • Donor contributions • International support
More costly than adaptation measures Matter of prioritization • Proactive • Reactive
Impact-Oriented Adaptation Impact
Adaptation Measure
Increasing temperatures
Building design for airflow; trees for shade
Rising sea levels/erosion
Sea walls; mangrove restoration; beach nourishment
Tropical storms
Storm-proof construction; trees for reinforcement
Coral reef bleaching
Marine protected areas; pollution control; coral regeneration
Droughts
Rainwater collection systems; water tanks
Water availability
Conservation; tourist education and awareness
Coastal Tourism: Conclusions
Tourism is vulnerable to climate change • 40-70% of tourism sector in Belize is highly vulnerable
Vulnerability assessments require thorough understanding of risks to tourism supply and demand Implications for planning, policy, adaptation measures Implications for future research in demand-based impacts
Implications for Transport
Ecotourism (and virtually all tourism) depends on transportation sector • Contributes to greenhouse gas emissions and climate change
Industry education and awareness • • • •
Conservation Energy efficiency Mass transit for congested parks Tourism certification
Tourist education and awareness • Conservation • Carbon offsetting programs • Ecological footprint
Thank you