Climate Change: Blessing or Curse?

Climate Change: Blessing or Curse?

Implications for Tourism The International Ecotourism Society Vancouver, October 28th, 2008

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Capacity & Focus

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My Scope & Purpose Today

• To say thank you –TIES, COTA • To frame the challenge • What’s really happening?

• What has to be done?

• To envision a “new” tourism 3

Sources of Inspiration

Rarely do we find men who willingly engage in hard, solid thinking. There is an almost universal quest for easy answers and halfbaked solutions. Nothing pains some people more than having to think. Martin Luther King 4

Sources of Inspiration

“In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.�

George Orwell 5

My Role Today Revolutionary?

Provocateur?

Opportunist?

Change Agent?

I just don’t want you to miss this opportunity!

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A Crisis du Jour?

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Something’s Wrong • “Climate change is the greatest and widest-ranging market failure ever seen” Sir Nicolas Stern • “The food crisis of 2008 has revealed market failures at every link in the food chain.” Economist, April 2008 • This is the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. You've seen the sudden deterioration of perceived credit quality of financial institutions around the world; you've seen the sudden failure of major institutions. John Lipsky, Head of the IMF 8

Something’s Wrong • These crises didn’t happen overnight • They’ve been brewing for a long time • They were based on deceit – We lied to each other – We even lied to our computers….

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Something’s Wrong

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Something’s Wrong • These crises didn’t happen overnight • They’ve been brewing for a long time • They were based on deceit – – – – –

We lied to each other We even lied to our computers….

We lied to ourselves “This time it’s different” …..dot com bubble This ship is unsinkable

• We lied and trust fell out the window 11

So What’s Possibly Good About Climate Change?

1. Environmental awareness and “ecoliteracy”

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What’s Possibly Good About Climate Change?

“Climate change is the synthesis of all other environmental issues; energy inefficiency, pollution, species extinction, water use, desertification, urban sprawl…many of the most pressing environmental issues are related intimately to the problem of climate change” Canadian Environmental Grantmaker’s Network 13

What’s Possibly Good About Climate Change?

1. Environmental awareness and eco-literacy 2. Greenhouse gas emissions can be measured and reduced

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What Does Tourism Contribute?

The Tourism Contribution

Source: UNWTO

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The Global Travel & Tourism Responsibility 2020 BAU CO2 =2586 million

1990 CO2 = 673 million

2.115 billion tons

2020 Target CO2 = 471 million 16

What’s Possibly Good About Climate Change?

1. Environmental awareness and eco-literacy 2. Greenhouse gases can be measured 3. Reducing our Carbon Footprint is good for business

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Positive Effects of Reducing Carbon it’s healthy!

•

Reduces operational costs – – – –

• • • •

Energy Waste processing Insurance Capital

Engages employees – improves recruitment Attracts investment Protects Brand, enhance reputation Increases resilience 18

Enormous Possibilities • ‌.opportunity to lay the foundations of a new form of growth that can transform our economies and societies. • Let us demonstrate for all, particularly the developing world, that low-carbon growth is not only possible, but that it can also be a productive and efficient route to overcome world poverty.

Lord Stern, 2008

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What’s Possibly Good About Climate Change?

1.

2.

3.

4.

Eco-awareness and eco-literacy Greenhouse gases can be measured Reducing carbon is good for business It’s forcing us to tell the truth about sustainability

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What’s Possibly Good About Climate Change?

1.

2.

3.

4.

Eco-awareness and eco-literacy Greenhouse gases can be measured Reducing carbon is good for business It’s forcing us to tell the truth about sustainability 5. It’s forcing us to examine our unexamined assumptions and re-think our worldview

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Why is Climate Change so Challenging for Tourism?

• • • • • •

Invisible Incremental Solutions change form not function Scope – Tragedy of the Commons Time-frame Requires system changes – unprecedented levels of innovation • Requires Collaboration across silos, between sectors • Aviation challenge

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What’s the Real Problem?

We’re living beyond our credit limit!

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We’ve Only One

Is this sub-prime real estate?

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But we Need Three to Support Our Current Population & Current Lifestyles A Mortgage that = 300% value of house & no known buyers!

We haven’t had to pay for our life support services our economic system is flawed

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So It’s Not Just Climate Change!!

We have to re-think our relationship with our host • • • •

Every year we destroy 44 million acres of forest…

Destroy 100 million acres of farmland….

Lose 24 billion tons of top soil Use 160 billion tons more water than is produced by rain • In Canada, we’ve destroyed one fishery and may destroy another!

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Elephants in the Room!

1. Value

http://www.gumtree.com/london/59/20699859.html

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A Question of Value • INTRINSIC VALUE – What does it cost?

– How necessary is it?

• EXTRINSIC VALUE – How much can I charge?

– How much will you pay?

• SCARCITY VALUE • OWNERSHIP 28

What do we Value?

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Liquid Value If the Unit of measure =16 fluid ounces, which has the most extrinsic value?

• • • • • •

Bottled water?

Starbucks Coffee?

Exxon gas?

Price of crude?

Tap water?

Unit of atmosphere?

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Liquid Value If the Unit of measure =16 fluid ounces, which one has the most extrinsic value?

• • • • • •

$1.50 $4.00 $ 0.52 $0.24 ? ? air)

Bottled water Starbucks Coffee Exxon gas Price of crude oil at $80 a barrel Clean Tap water Unit of atmosphere (clean, pollution free 31

The Essence of Tourism There’s only one - place

There’s only one experience

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The Essence of Tourism There’s only one - place

There’s only one experience

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The Essence of Tourism There’s only one - place

There’s only one experience

When what we sell is UNIQUE and SCARCE, why discount?

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The Scarcer It becomes‌

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How do we cost, value & price experiences?

• Who owns the mammals? Who protects them?

• Who owns the landscape? Who tends / stewards the land?

• What’s a forest worth?

• What’s a life support system worth?

• Who pays for use or non-use?

• Who receives income for protection?

• Is tourism costing the earth?

• How do we justify cheap travel?

• Is travel a right or a privilege?

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Three Elephants in the Room!

2. Growth

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Volume Growth

More airplanes = More airports More freeways More parking lots More airport hotels More kiosks More security More hamburger stands‌

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A Chance to Understand What Sustainability Really Means Hoe many of you have sons?

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• • • •

In the natural world all growth is checked. It’s about change & transformation Sustaining as in perpetuating won’t work Sustaining as in more of the same won’t work Sustaining as in “smart growth” might work if we knew what that meant Butler’s destination cycle 39

Three Elephants in the Room!

3. Our Mental Wiring We’re all brainwashed!

The world we have created is a product of our thinking; it cannot be changed without changing our thinking.

Albert Einstein 40

Our Mental Wiring • • • • •

Fight or Flight?

Naming Labeling Definitions Applying value judgments • Creating Separations

• • • • • • • •

Travel vs Tourism Business vs Leisure Adventure travel Ecotourism Sustainable Responsible Geo tourism Aboriginal, culinary tourism 41

We think as if we were an industrial machine

From Machines to Systems Machines can be taken apart, and reassembled Machines are complicated and static Systems are complex and dynamic Systems can adapt Their character emerges

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When we’re really a network

AWARENESS AND IMAGINATION ARE EVERYTHING WHAT YOU SEE IS WHAT YOU GET or WHATYOU GET IS WHAT YOU SEE WHAT LENSES ARE YOU WEARING?

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We’ve planned as if we were an Industry

Link: www.theicarusfoundation.typepad.com 44

When We’re Really a Swarm • “It turns out that .. a collection of small, simple agents with limited intelligence, local decision-making capability, and a communication path to nearby peers can outperform a large centralized processor.

• Moreover, a decentralized system has several important advantages over a centralized one, most notably robustness and flexibility.”

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And Everything is Connected!

And Everything is Connected!

And Everything is Connected!

A Mindset at Work at this event • • • •

Climate Change & Tourism Parks & protected Areas Indigenous Peoples & Local Communities Green Operations & Technologies

• • • • •

Policy & Guidelines Conservation Financing Marketing & Media Interpretation & Education

www.comstock.com

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Thoughts For The Future!

• PLEASE,PLEASE give up the labels and the definitionsleave ECO in ECONOMY where it belongs!

• Unify & simplify the message and the means – – – –

Tourism cares Good Tourism Tourism For Good Taking Care is Good For Business

• INCENTIVISE – Take a lesson from slime mould – The destination that …..

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Thoughts For The Future!

• Encourage an ecological mindset with every encounter with guest, employee, investor, stakeholder

• Show the value in non-development and offer to become steward and nurture ecosystem services – it will pay!

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Thoughts For The Future!

• Slow down and slow your customers down!

• Engage the locals

• Go virtual when appropriate

• …and finally……

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Remember what business we are really in!

Recreation = to re-create Vacation = to empty Holiday = holy day, to make whole Hospitality = to heal Renewal Transformation

Re-generation: that’s OUR business!

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Thank You!

www.theicarusfoundation.com www.icarusfoundation.typepad.com

Anna.pollock@btconnect.com +44 1544 388 400 54